Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 9, Sunday

Chicago over Houston

Chicago is back on top again with another big win, while Houston is still the overall favorite to win the Superbowl. (Chicago beats Houston head to head, but Houston wins in more simulations).

I'm kind of interested in what sort of scenarios it would take for a team like Kansas City or Jacksonville to make the playoffs. I've currently got them at a very small chance of either winning a wildcard or the division. I'd imagine almost all of the scenarios involve them each winning their next 8 games to go 9-7, but that's probably not enough to guarantee a spot. When the situations get even more dire, maybe I'll set my code to dump the entire simulated season to a text file when a team like KC makes the playoffs, and try to figure out the games they need to help. Even more interesting might be scenarios where both the Chiefs and the Jaguars made it, though those might be so rare that millions of simulations won't hit one despite the possibility.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CHI	7-1	0.692	76.866	96.871	81.704	47.131	26.629	15.493
SF	6-2	0.680	93.032	96.717	74.502	40.839	22.349	12.715
HOU	7-1	0.669	95.668	99.746	96.094	59.156	34.664	18.009
NE	5-3	0.643	77.177	87.615	65.094	36.368	19.344	9.494
ATL	8-0	0.642	97.220	99.367	90.614	47.732	23.093	12.179
NYG	6-3	0.624	84.681	89.985	57.095	26.647	12.523	6.367
DEN	5-3	0.604	80.391	90.511	63.823	32.284	15.625	7.026
GB	6-3	0.599	19.385	74.912	40.041	17.470	7.817	3.769
TB	4-4	0.573	2.683	28.988	12.906	5.254	2.209	1.007
SD	4-4	0.560	18.313	49.198	26.149	11.336	5.067	2.059
PIT	5-3	0.556	39.447	71.924	42.298	18.368	8.034	3.234
MIA	4-4	0.549	18.754	41.003	21.029	9.025	3.940	1.558
BAL	6-2	0.545	59.764	86.014	57.962	25.133	10.563	4.144
SEA	5-4	0.541	5.723	43.072	18.170	6.924	2.696	1.145
MIN	5-4	0.515	2.785	20.119	8.098	2.885	1.057	0.422
DET	4-4	0.508	0.964	15.151	5.793	2.006	0.720	0.283
WAS	3-6	0.461	2.947	5.787	1.991	0.606	0.191	0.067
NO	2-5	0.458	0.086	2.419	0.800	0.240	0.076	0.026
CIN	3-5	0.447	0.760	5.206	1.957	0.605	0.211	0.064
NYJ	3-5	0.436	3.019	10.930	4.025	1.246	0.421	0.124
IND	5-3	0.433	4.313	46.409	17.884	5.497	1.839	0.538
DAL	3-5	0.431	4.647	8.442	2.691	0.754	0.218	0.071
CAR	2-6	0.431	0.012	0.337	0.099	0.027	0.008	0.003
ARI	4-5	0.425	0.552	3.933	1.178	0.328	0.094	0.030
PHI	3-4	0.420	7.725	11.111	3.551	0.961	0.269	0.084
CLE	2-7	0.410	0.029	0.413	0.136	0.037	0.012	0.003
OAK	3-5	0.397	1.276	5.771	1.947	0.532	0.161	0.042
STL	3-5	0.393	0.693	2.788	0.766	0.193	0.050	0.014
BUF	3-5	0.388	1.050	4.169	1.338	0.358	0.106	0.027
KC	1-7	0.323	0.020	0.055	0.015	0.003	0.001	0.000
JAC	1-7	0.316	0.001	0.107	0.026	0.005	0.001	0.000
TEN	3-6	0.315	0.018	0.931	0.224	0.046	0.011	0.002

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]