2012-11-05

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 9, Sunday

Chicago over Houston

Chicago is back on top again with another big win, while Houston is still the overall favorite to win the Superbowl. (Chicago beats Houston head to head, but Houston wins in more simulations).

I'm kind of interested in what sort of scenarios it would take for a team like Kansas City or Jacksonville to make the playoffs. I've currently got them at a very small chance of either winning a wildcard or the division. I'd imagine almost all of the scenarios involve them each winning their next 8 games to go 9-7, but that's probably not enough to guarantee a spot. When the situations get even more dire, maybe I'll set my code to dump the entire simulated season to a text file when a team like KC makes the playoffs, and try to figure out the games they need to help. Even more interesting might be scenarios where both the Chiefs and the Jaguars made it, though those might be so rare that millions of simulations won't hit one despite the possibility.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
CHI7-10.69276.86696.87181.70447.13126.62915.493
SF6-20.68093.03296.71774.50240.83922.34912.715
HOU7-10.66995.66899.74696.09459.15634.66418.009
NE5-30.64377.17787.61565.09436.36819.3449.494
ATL8-00.64297.22099.36790.61447.73223.09312.179
NYG6-30.62484.68189.98557.09526.64712.5236.367
DEN5-30.60480.39190.51163.82332.28415.6257.026
GB6-30.59919.38574.91240.04117.4707.8173.769
TB4-40.5732.68328.98812.9065.2542.2091.007
SD4-40.56018.31349.19826.14911.3365.0672.059
PIT5-30.55639.44771.92442.29818.3688.0343.234
MIA4-40.54918.75441.00321.0299.0253.9401.558
BAL6-20.54559.76486.01457.96225.13310.5634.144
SEA5-40.5415.72343.07218.1706.9242.6961.145
MIN5-40.5152.78520.1198.0982.8851.0570.422
DET4-40.5080.96415.1515.7932.0060.7200.283
WAS3-60.4612.9475.7871.9910.6060.1910.067
NO2-50.4580.0862.4190.8000.2400.0760.026
CIN3-50.4470.7605.2061.9570.6050.2110.064
NYJ3-50.4363.01910.9304.0251.2460.4210.124
IND5-30.4334.31346.40917.8845.4971.8390.538
DAL3-50.4314.6478.4422.6910.7540.2180.071
CAR2-60.4310.0120.3370.0990.0270.0080.003
ARI4-50.4250.5523.9331.1780.3280.0940.030
PHI3-40.4207.72511.1113.5510.9610.2690.084
CLE2-70.4100.0290.4130.1360.0370.0120.003
OAK3-50.3971.2765.7711.9470.5320.1610.042
STL3-50.3930.6932.7880.7660.1930.0500.014
BUF3-50.3881.0504.1691.3380.3580.1060.027
KC1-70.3230.0200.0550.0150.0030.0010.000
JAC1-70.3160.0010.1070.0260.0050.0010.000
TEN3-60.3150.0180.9310.2240.0460.0110.002

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]

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