Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 15, Sunday

San Francisco over Houston

The NFL knew what they were doing when they put San Francisco at New England in the Sunday night slot all the way back when the schedule was released. I had this picked as the Superbowl matchup, but with the wrong winner. The fortunes have now flipped though, and while New England is the strongest AFC team, their seeding puts them behind Houston and Denver in terms of likelihood to win the conference.

All of this week's teams who clinched did so with a win, and all those eliminated lost. That feels a little "cleaner" to me, as no teams had things happen to them.

Division Clinchers:
AFC South - Houston
NFC North - Green Bay

Division Eliminations:
AFC South - Indianapolis
NFC North - Chicago
NFC West - St. Louis

Playoff Clinchers:

San Francisco

Baltimore

Playoff Eliminations:

Tampa Bay

San Diego

Cleveland

Buffalo

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	10-3-1	0.775	95.134	+	90.480	58.844	34.296	19.709
NE	10-4	0.767	+	+	80.274	45.419	28.198	15.388
SEA	9-5	0.765	4.866	95.425	68.738	38.172	21.616	12.129
DEN	11-3	0.735	+	+	93.789	49.347	28.355	14.280
ATL	12-2	0.715	+	+	99.394	53.319	25.411	12.646
HOU	12-2	0.706	+	+	98.653	63.670	29.502	13.822
CHI	8-6	0.679	-	43.661	22.944	10.425	4.470	2.039
NYG	8-6	0.630	16.275	52.919	25.122	9.669	3.741	1.512
CIN	8-6	0.622	17.927	64.886	31.164	12.411	4.885	1.849
GB	10-4	0.605	+	+	58.971	19.325	7.339	2.784
BAL	9-5	0.581	75.002	+	55.322	19.510	6.714	2.282
WAS	8-6	0.555	51.728	60.927	20.293	6.403	2.093	0.697
PIT	7-7	0.524	7.071	29.627	10.855	3.335	1.029	0.300
MIN	8-6	0.523	-	14.199	5.858	1.761	0.471	0.143
NO	6-8	0.517	-	0.023	0.008	0.002	0.001	0.000
TB	6-8	0.509	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	8-6	0.478	31.997	32.843	8.192	2.080	0.563	0.152
SD	5-9	0.472	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	6-8	0.464	-	0.594	0.174	0.046	0.012	0.003
CAR	5-9	0.451	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	5-9	0.434	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	4-10	0.409	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	9-5	0.405	-	98.192	28.518	6.022	1.258	0.256
STL	6-7-1	0.373	-	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	6-7	0.369	-	6.701	1.250	0.242	0.049	0.009
BUF	5-9	0.330	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	5-9	0.316	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	4-9	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	4-10	0.268	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-10	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-12	0.201	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	2-12	0.177	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]