Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 12, Thursday

San Francisco over Houston

New England pushed closer to the top in team strength last night by clobbering the Jets, but Houston is a full 2 games ahead and very likely to get a first round bye, giving them a statistical edge in making the Superbowl. Note that the 100.000 shown as Houston's playoff odds is rounded up from 99.9995 or more. A clinched position will show with a plus sign (+).

Detroit played yesterday, and it seems wrong that they can be eliminated from winning their division at 4-7, with their division rivals at 7-3, 7-3, and 6-4. Surely they could still go 9-7 and win, right? As it turns out, the NFC North has a lot of intra-divison games left. Chicago and Green Bay each have 2 games against Minnesota, 1 game against Detroit, and 1 game against each other left to play. All that adds up to at least one of those teams finishing 9-7, and beating Detroit in a Tiebreaker.

It all sounds nicely wrapped up, except for the possibility of a tie. As you can see below, we've already had one this year. My software doesn't simulate ties, it always picks a winner in simulations. Actually, if at least one NFC North game ends in a tie, Detroit could win the division. My favorite example would be the Green Bay-Minnesota game in Week 17. If the other NFC Wildcards are 10-win teams, a situation could arise where the winner of that game wins the NFC North, and the loser goes home, but in case of a tie, Detroit wins and both teams go home. It's an extreme long shot, but it'd be interesting to see the strategy employed in overtime if it got down to 5 minutes or so left to play. That might even become the last tie ever in the NFL, as the ensuing outrage would mean something would be done.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	7-2-1	0.725	89.596	97.286	84.178	52.126	31.740	17.736
NE	8-3	0.722	99.361	99.824	82.573	49.894	28.739	16.392
HOU	10-1	0.699	99.235	100.000	98.684	60.634	32.518	17.630
CHI	7-3	0.672	45.409	83.772	59.918	31.135	16.267	8.084
DEN	7-3	0.651	99.751	99.891	74.229	35.376	16.845	8.233
ATL	9-1	0.646	91.882	98.441	89.723	47.218	22.355	10.461
BAL	8-2	0.616	87.432	98.979	75.339	32.259	14.113	6.376
GB	7-3	0.608	45.305	79.389	49.670	21.805	9.721	4.169
TB	6-4	0.600	7.651	43.710	22.272	9.666	4.218	1.774
NYG	6-4	0.596	69.547	73.547	37.950	16.130	6.931	2.890
SEA	6-4	0.594	10.321	55.654	29.253	12.547	5.418	2.247
PIT	6-4	0.562	10.878	72.083	30.211	10.996	4.320	1.719
MIN	6-4	0.535	9.285	21.401	9.463	3.429	1.297	0.465
NO	5-5	0.523	0.468	11.214	4.460	1.605	0.588	0.205
SD	4-6	0.523	0.234	24.273	8.806	2.860	1.032	0.373
CIN	5-5	0.521	1.690	31.750	11.558	3.743	1.344	0.485
WAS	5-6	0.518	18.734	21.860	8.572	2.998	1.064	0.365
DET	4-7	0.475	-	0.187	0.064	0.020	0.006	0.002
DAL	5-6	0.459	11.278	12.240	4.137	1.237	0.374	0.110
MIA	4-6	0.457	0.594	2.767	0.866	0.242	0.074	0.023
ARI	4-6	0.415	0.066	0.714	0.206	0.057	0.016	0.004
IND	6-4	0.403	0.763	51.221	13.403	3.113	0.806	0.210
CLE	2-8	0.403	-	0.159	0.039	0.009	0.002	0.001
BUF	4-6	0.383	0.042	8.381	1.994	0.428	0.106	0.026
CAR	2-8	0.376	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	4-7	0.367	0.003	3.998	0.897	0.181	0.042	0.010
STL	3-6-1	0.364	0.016	0.140	0.033	0.008	0.002	0.000
TEN	4-6	0.349	0.001	5.856	1.244	0.239	0.053	0.011
OAK	3-7	0.320	0.015	0.816	0.156	0.027	0.005	0.001
PHI	3-7	0.318	0.441	0.447	0.099	0.019	0.004	0.001
JAC	1-9	0.284	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	-
KC	1-9	0.270	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-	-

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)

First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]