2012-12-03

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 13, Sunday

San Francisco over Houston

To put it inartfully, now some stuff is happening! 4 teams clinched a playoff spot, and (as far as I can tell) 3 more were eliminated Sunday. It's 3-in, 3-out in the AFC, and just 1 in and 1 out in the NFC.

First, the eliminations:
Tampa Bay is out of the AFC South with their loss, as they could only have tied Atlanta.
San Diego also made it official in the AFC West with a loss and the Denver win.
Miami sent themselves away in the AFC East, losing to New England.

Jacksonville is out of the playoffs all together, matching the Chiefs at 10 losses.
Oakland also lost to drop to 3-9 and out of the playoffs.
Carolina is not officially out according to the NFL, but I didn't have time to try to construct their Wildcard scenario today. Like the Detroit scenario I noticed in week 12, it likely involves ties by those above them.

As for the clinching teams, New England, Houston, Denver, are all in. Houston will have to hold of Indianapolis for their division, but the other 3 have won their division and each get at least 1 home playoff game.

And here's my account of the Rams game, just so I can look back on this years from now and maybe remember it. When the Rams scored their touchdown to cut the SF lead to 10-8 with a few minutes to go in the 4th quarter, before the 2-point conversion I said to my Dad "Watch this, we're going to tie them again." Despite a 5 yard penalty on the try, the Rams tied it up, to be followed by a quick run down the field to an easy San Francisco field goal. But then, the Rams managed to hit one of their own from over 50 yards to send the game to overtime. Then they had the ball with 30 seconds to go in OT and were set up for another 50+ yarder, which Greg Zuerlein hit to win the game. They had to play nearly 10 quarters over 2 games, but the score was finally settled with the 49ers for this season. Unfortunately they'll probably still win the division outright, but the Rams are now 4-0-1 in the division, with just one game in Seattle left to go.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF8-3-10.74688.76298.82282.05350.45030.78117.165
NE9-30.739++83.32749.75228.27115.961
HOU11-10.72598.451+98.84062.45933.81018.490
CHI8-40.69953.09495.37266.96334.29518.4909.248
DEN9-30.684++80.49439.62219.3989.661
ATL11-10.669++98.84153.54425.15011.726
NYG7-40.64582.41389.42053.85624.16211.1014.876
BAL9-30.62286.78799.22469.15527.82711.4924.953
SEA7-50.59911.14375.35635.23614.6655.9182.327
TB6-60.586-13.5115.6192.2730.8920.339
CIN7-50.5837.28152.97722.0907.7483.0231.186
GB8-40.57446.15690.23844.78616.6736.4582.384
PIT7-50.5555.93258.57622.4047.3182.6780.982
WAS5-60.5189.56516.1685.9661.9910.6530.208
SD4-80.502-0.8640.2740.0760.0250.008
NO5-70.490-1.8550.6030.1910.0580.017
MIN6-60.4790.7504.5451.4930.4500.1330.038
DET4-80.473-0.0240.0080.0020.0010.000
DAL6-60.4718.02311.5613.8001.1160.3220.090
MIA5-70.448-0.8510.2370.0570.0160.004
IND8-40.4201.54983.50522.3274.9841.2530.317
CLE4-80.419-0.1320.0330.0070.0020.000
STL5-6-10.3970.0953.1150.7740.1870.0430.010
BUF5-70.393-1.0730.2480.0490.0120.003
CAR3-90.382------
ARI4-80.376-0.0130.0030.0010.0000.000
NYJ5-70.360-2.6350.5440.0960.0210.004
TEN4-80.311-0.1630.0280.0040.0010.000
PHI3-90.3030.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
OAK3-90.272------
JAC2-100.260------
KC2-100.250------

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]

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