Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 13, Sunday

San Francisco over Houston

To put it inartfully, now some stuff is happening! 4 teams clinched a playoff spot, and (as far as I can tell) 3 more were eliminated Sunday. It's 3-in, 3-out in the AFC, and just 1 in and 1 out in the NFC.

First, the eliminations:
Tampa Bay is out of the AFC South with their loss, as they could only have tied Atlanta.
San Diego also made it official in the AFC West with a loss and the Denver win.
Miami sent themselves away in the AFC East, losing to New England.

Jacksonville is out of the playoffs all together, matching the Chiefs at 10 losses.
Oakland also lost to drop to 3-9 and out of the playoffs.
Carolina is not officially out according to the NFL, but I didn't have time to try to construct their Wildcard scenario today. Like the Detroit scenario I noticed in week 12, it likely involves ties by those above them.

As for the clinching teams, New England, Houston, Denver, are all in. Houston will have to hold of Indianapolis for their division, but the other 3 have won their division and each get at least 1 home playoff game.

And here's my account of the Rams game, just so I can look back on this years from now and maybe remember it. When the Rams scored their touchdown to cut the SF lead to 10-8 with a few minutes to go in the 4th quarter, before the 2-point conversion I said to my Dad "Watch this, we're going to tie them again." Despite a 5 yard penalty on the try, the Rams tied it up, to be followed by a quick run down the field to an easy San Francisco field goal. But then, the Rams managed to hit one of their own from over 50 yards to send the game to overtime. Then they had the ball with 30 seconds to go in OT and were set up for another 50+ yarder, which Greg Zuerlein hit to win the game. They had to play nearly 10 quarters over 2 games, but the score was finally settled with the 49ers for this season. Unfortunately they'll probably still win the division outright, but the Rams are now 4-0-1 in the division, with just one game in Seattle left to go.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	8-3-1	0.746	88.762	98.822	82.053	50.450	30.781	17.165
NE	9-3	0.739	+	+	83.327	49.752	28.271	15.961
HOU	11-1	0.725	98.451	+	98.840	62.459	33.810	18.490
CHI	8-4	0.699	53.094	95.372	66.963	34.295	18.490	9.248
DEN	9-3	0.684	+	+	80.494	39.622	19.398	9.661
ATL	11-1	0.669	+	+	98.841	53.544	25.150	11.726
NYG	7-4	0.645	82.413	89.420	53.856	24.162	11.101	4.876
BAL	9-3	0.622	86.787	99.224	69.155	27.827	11.492	4.953
SEA	7-5	0.599	11.143	75.356	35.236	14.665	5.918	2.327
TB	6-6	0.586	-	13.511	5.619	2.273	0.892	0.339
CIN	7-5	0.583	7.281	52.977	22.090	7.748	3.023	1.186
GB	8-4	0.574	46.156	90.238	44.786	16.673	6.458	2.384
PIT	7-5	0.555	5.932	58.576	22.404	7.318	2.678	0.982
WAS	5-6	0.518	9.565	16.168	5.966	1.991	0.653	0.208
SD	4-8	0.502	-	0.864	0.274	0.076	0.025	0.008
NO	5-7	0.490	-	1.855	0.603	0.191	0.058	0.017
MIN	6-6	0.479	0.750	4.545	1.493	0.450	0.133	0.038
DET	4-8	0.473	-	0.024	0.008	0.002	0.001	0.000
DAL	6-6	0.471	8.023	11.561	3.800	1.116	0.322	0.090
MIA	5-7	0.448	-	0.851	0.237	0.057	0.016	0.004
IND	8-4	0.420	1.549	83.505	22.327	4.984	1.253	0.317
CLE	4-8	0.419	-	0.132	0.033	0.007	0.002	0.000
STL	5-6-1	0.397	0.095	3.115	0.774	0.187	0.043	0.010
BUF	5-7	0.393	-	1.073	0.248	0.049	0.012	0.003
CAR	3-9	0.382	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	4-8	0.376	-	0.013	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000
NYJ	5-7	0.360	-	2.635	0.544	0.096	0.021	0.004
TEN	4-8	0.311	-	0.163	0.028	0.004	0.001	0.000
PHI	3-9	0.303	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
OAK	3-9	0.272	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-10	0.260	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	2-10	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]