2012-12-18

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 15, Final

San Francisco over Houston

Surprisingly enough, the Titans played to win last night, and took the Jets down with them. The Jets had a 6% chance of an AFC wildcard, which has now been distributed among Indianapolis, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati, the remaining wildcard contenders.

As for the Rams, there's a fairly straightforward way for them to get a wildcard spot, and it only takes 10 games going the right way!

Week 16:
St. Louis d. Tampa Bay
New Orleans d. Dallas
Baltimore d. New York Giants
Houston d. Minnesota
Arizona d. Chicago

Week 17:
St. Louis d. Seattle
Washington d. Dallas
Detroit d. Chicago
Green Bay d. Minnesota
Philadelphia d. New York Giants

There might be other ways involving Washington losses too, but they appear to hold the tiebreaker in the NFC East, so the most straightforward way is to let them win (or lose, doesn't matter), and have Dallas and New York go 8-8, just worse than the 8-7-1 Rams.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF10-3-10.77595.131+90.46158.82434.28019.708
NE10-40.767++79.57345.07827.98915.279
SEA9-50.7654.86995.42068.71038.16221.61212.133
DEN11-30.735++93.55749.40028.38314.294
ATL12-20.715++99.39253.31825.41412.656
HOU12-20.706++98.61363.45729.43113.792
CHI8-60.679-43.65022.93110.4234.4712.040
NYG8-60.63016.27252.91525.1209.6693.7431.515
CIN8-60.62217.92568.97532.43712.9305.1091.936
GB10-40.605++59.01319.3447.3462.789
BAL9-50.58175.004+55.41419.5306.7402.290
WAS8-60.55551.72660.92920.3026.4122.0970.699
PIT7-70.5247.07130.35711.0523.3961.0490.306
MIN8-60.523-14.3435.9041.7740.4750.145
NO6-80.517-0.0230.0080.0020.0010.000
TB6-80.509------
DAL8-60.47832.00332.7178.1592.0710.5610.152
SD5-90.472------
MIA6-80.464-0.7930.2330.0610.0160.004
CAR5-90.451------
CLE5-90.434------
DET4-100.409------
IND9-50.405-99.87529.1216.1471.2830.262
STL6-7-10.373-0.0030.0010.0000.0000.000
NYJ6-80.357------
BUF5-90.331------
ARI5-90.316------
TEN5-90.300------
PHI4-100.268------
OAK4-100.254------
JAC2-120.201------
KC2-120.177------

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]

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