2012-09-25

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 3, Final

Houston over Atlanta

The ridiculous end to the MNF game didn't change the projected overall season outcome, but certainly affected the teams involved. Green Bay fell to just a 25% chance of making the playoffs, well below the mean (37.5% of teams make the playoffs). Let's look at what happens if the game ends 12-7 in favor of Green Bay.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA1-20.53412.12028.65617.2248.5184.1982.123
GB2-10.52731.38549.85332.71615.9847.8363.949

The strengths don't change immensely with a mere 7-point swing. However, the records do, and Green Bay's playoff odds would greatly improve with the win. Their Division and Wild Card chances have been nearly cut in half by that one bad call, while Seattle's Division and Wild Card chances have almost doubled. This is an interesting symmetry given that they are not in the same division, but is likely mostly coincidental, because the change in Division-winning odds obviously comes at the expense/gain of the teams in their respective divisions. Green Bay's Superbowl odds have been reduced even more than 50%, and Seattle's have more than doubled, too, compared the correct call results.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
HOU3-00.57679.19888.54275.52043.11024.30513.076
ATL3-00.57278.62384.51368.08437.42120.28111.057
ARI3-00.56154.05275.40057.95531.00416.3878.751
CHI2-10.55039.58055.08438.10719.72210.1195.291
BAL2-10.54951.56968.11050.41126.86614.0727.183
SEA2-10.54923.57953.54835.71418.3409.4214.913
NYG2-10.54840.10756.68739.37020.19110.2875.354
NE1-20.53422.80937.90824.51112.4756.3323.138
SD2-10.52952.23165.60746.81323.80711.9195.850
MIN2-10.52432.69947.73031.40015.3467.4473.698
BUF2-10.51428.41248.97932.27215.8177.6863.656
NYJ2-10.51135.52651.85334.25516.7148.0703.817
SF2-10.51017.61038.91024.04711.3765.3942.607
GB1-20.50816.44625.18214.6046.8693.2291.551
PIT1-20.50418.99531.77319.2879.2144.3902.046
DEN1-20.50023.05935.25321.36310.1024.7592.198
MIA1-20.49813.25326.16515.2607.1713.3701.550
WAS1-20.49715.03524.30314.1146.4492.9501.387
DET1-20.48911.27518.91810.5954.7912.1671.003
TB1-20.48411.63920.92211.3825.0972.2861.046
DAL2-10.48125.95938.53422.76710.0364.4162.005
CIN2-10.47524.61241.77325.15611.2715.0232.196
NO0-30.4723.5657.5283.8281.6640.7270.323
STL1-20.4654.76012.2836.4042.7311.1720.514
CLE0-30.4634.8249.2534.8442.1030.9200.391
JAC1-20.4607.01421.09911.1614.7902.0950.887
IND1-20.4597.56219.20710.3244.4411.9400.819
PHI2-10.45618.89928.02715.4276.4132.6641.142
OAK1-20.45311.16519.91210.6214.4981.9110.794
KC1-20.45213.54620.99411.3144.7912.0300.841
CAR1-20.4476.17212.4316.1992.5511.0540.443
TEN1-20.4386.22713.5726.8882.8281.1770.472

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)


[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]

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