Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 3, Final

Houston over Atlanta

The ridiculous end to the MNF game didn't change the projected overall season outcome, but certainly affected the teams involved. Green Bay fell to just a 25% chance of making the playoffs, well below the mean (37.5% of teams make the playoffs). Let's look at what happens if the game ends 12-7 in favor of Green Bay.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	1-2	0.534	12.120	28.656	17.224	8.518	4.198	2.123
GB	2-1	0.527	31.385	49.853	32.716	15.984	7.836	3.949

The strengths don't change immensely with a mere 7-point swing. However, the records do, and Green Bay's playoff odds would greatly improve with the win. Their Division and Wild Card chances have been nearly cut in half by that one bad call, while Seattle's Division and Wild Card chances have almost doubled. This is an interesting symmetry given that they are not in the same division, but is likely mostly coincidental, because the change in Division-winning odds obviously comes at the expense/gain of the teams in their respective divisions. Green Bay's Superbowl odds have been reduced even more than 50%, and Seattle's have more than doubled, too, compared the correct call results.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	3-0	0.576	79.198	88.542	75.520	43.110	24.305	13.076
ATL	3-0	0.572	78.623	84.513	68.084	37.421	20.281	11.057
ARI	3-0	0.561	54.052	75.400	57.955	31.004	16.387	8.751
CHI	2-1	0.550	39.580	55.084	38.107	19.722	10.119	5.291
BAL	2-1	0.549	51.569	68.110	50.411	26.866	14.072	7.183
SEA	2-1	0.549	23.579	53.548	35.714	18.340	9.421	4.913
NYG	2-1	0.548	40.107	56.687	39.370	20.191	10.287	5.354
NE	1-2	0.534	22.809	37.908	24.511	12.475	6.332	3.138
SD	2-1	0.529	52.231	65.607	46.813	23.807	11.919	5.850
MIN	2-1	0.524	32.699	47.730	31.400	15.346	7.447	3.698
BUF	2-1	0.514	28.412	48.979	32.272	15.817	7.686	3.656
NYJ	2-1	0.511	35.526	51.853	34.255	16.714	8.070	3.817
SF	2-1	0.510	17.610	38.910	24.047	11.376	5.394	2.607
GB	1-2	0.508	16.446	25.182	14.604	6.869	3.229	1.551
PIT	1-2	0.504	18.995	31.773	19.287	9.214	4.390	2.046
DEN	1-2	0.500	23.059	35.253	21.363	10.102	4.759	2.198
MIA	1-2	0.498	13.253	26.165	15.260	7.171	3.370	1.550
WAS	1-2	0.497	15.035	24.303	14.114	6.449	2.950	1.387
DET	1-2	0.489	11.275	18.918	10.595	4.791	2.167	1.003
TB	1-2	0.484	11.639	20.922	11.382	5.097	2.286	1.046
DAL	2-1	0.481	25.959	38.534	22.767	10.036	4.416	2.005
CIN	2-1	0.475	24.612	41.773	25.156	11.271	5.023	2.196
NO	0-3	0.472	3.565	7.528	3.828	1.664	0.727	0.323
STL	1-2	0.465	4.760	12.283	6.404	2.731	1.172	0.514
CLE	0-3	0.463	4.824	9.253	4.844	2.103	0.920	0.391
JAC	1-2	0.460	7.014	21.099	11.161	4.790	2.095	0.887
IND	1-2	0.459	7.562	19.207	10.324	4.441	1.940	0.819
PHI	2-1	0.456	18.899	28.027	15.427	6.413	2.664	1.142
OAK	1-2	0.453	11.165	19.912	10.621	4.498	1.911	0.794
KC	1-2	0.452	13.546	20.994	11.314	4.791	2.030	0.841
CAR	1-2	0.447	6.172	12.431	6.199	2.551	1.054	0.443
TEN	1-2	0.438	6.227	13.572	6.888	2.828	1.177	0.472

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]