Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 14, Thursday

San Francisco over Houston

Last night's game was probably imagined as a big division matchup when the schedule was made, but wound up being an already-clinched team versus an already-eliminated team. Denver beat Oakland handily, and nothing much changed in the projections. In terms of team strength, Denver moved up 1 spot, ahead of Houston, and Oakland dropped 2 spots, below Jacksonville and Kansas City. But, these slight fluctuations may well even out after Sunday's and Monday's games.

I still can't figure out why nfl.com and cbssports.com think Carolina has not been eliminated. There are now 63 games to go in the season, which means 3⁶³ potential outcomes (including ties), still a few too many to search exhaustively. I hope Carolina stays alive this week, because then the number of games drops to a slightly more manageable level, 48. If not, for my own sanity I'll have to set up a search of all 3⁶³ possibilities from this point, and run it in the offseason.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	8-3-1	0.746	88.759	98.720	83.176	51.415	31.432	17.343
NE	9-3	0.739	+	+	82.434	47.721	26.882	15.168
HOU	11-1	0.725	98.450	+	98.721	61.778	32.822	17.941
DEN	10-3	0.708	+	+	83.954	43.942	22.739	11.963
CHI	8-4	0.699	53.082	94.607	68.397	34.888	18.927	9.352
ATL	11-1	0.669	+	+	99.200	54.407	25.486	11.730
NYG	7-5	0.648	60.993	75.399	41.544	18.888	8.688	3.794
BAL	9-3	0.622	86.242	99.176	67.908	26.718	10.852	4.678
SEA	7-5	0.599	11.145	70.676	34.883	14.484	5.849	2.266
TB	6-6	0.586	-	12.393	5.226	2.108	0.830	0.311
CIN	7-5	0.583	7.578	52.916	21.760	7.584	2.892	1.135
GB	8-4	0.574	46.168	88.232	46.257	17.035	6.645	2.415
PIT	7-5	0.555	6.180	58.589	22.046	7.154	2.557	0.938
WAS	6-6	0.520	25.460	35.616	13.384	4.473	1.480	0.466
SD	4-8	0.502	-	0.896	0.277	0.077	0.024	0.008
NO	5-7	0.490	-	1.697	0.560	0.177	0.054	0.016
MIN	6-6	0.479	0.750	4.030	1.354	0.404	0.121	0.034
DET	4-8	0.473	-	0.016	0.005	0.002	0.000	0.000
DAL	6-6	0.471	13.546	15.784	5.300	1.547	0.448	0.123
MIA	5-7	0.448	-	0.843	0.232	0.055	0.015	0.004
IND	8-4	0.420	1.550	83.584	21.839	4.819	1.184	0.300
CLE	4-8	0.419	-	0.121	0.029	0.006	0.002	0.000
STL	5-6-1	0.397	0.095	2.822	0.713	0.172	0.040	0.009
BUF	5-7	0.393	-	1.073	0.242	0.048	0.011	0.003
CAR	3-9	0.382	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	4-8	0.376	-	0.007	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	5-7	0.360	-	2.640	0.530	0.094	0.019	0.004
TEN	4-8	0.311	-	0.162	0.027	0.004	0.001	0.000
PHI	3-9	0.304	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
JAC	2-10	0.260	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	2-10	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	3-10	0.249	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]