2012-12-07

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 14, Thursday

San Francisco over Houston

Last night's game was probably imagined as a big division matchup when the schedule was made, but wound up being an already-clinched team versus an already-eliminated team. Denver beat Oakland handily, and nothing much changed in the projections. In terms of team strength, Denver moved up 1 spot, ahead of Houston, and Oakland dropped 2 spots, below Jacksonville and Kansas City. But, these slight fluctuations may well even out after Sunday's and Monday's games.

I still can't figure out why nfl.com and cbssports.com think Carolina has not been eliminated. There are now 63 games to go in the season, which means 363 potential outcomes (including ties), still a few too many to search exhaustively. I hope Carolina stays alive this week, because then the number of games drops to a slightly more manageable level, 48. If not, for my own sanity I'll have to set up a search of all 363 possibilities from this point, and run it in the offseason.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF8-3-10.74688.75998.72083.17651.41531.43217.343
NE9-30.739++82.43447.72126.88215.168
HOU11-10.72598.450+98.72161.77832.82217.941
DEN10-30.708++83.95443.94222.73911.963
CHI8-40.69953.08294.60768.39734.88818.9279.352
ATL11-10.669++99.20054.40725.48611.730
NYG7-50.64860.99375.39941.54418.8888.6883.794
BAL9-30.62286.24299.17667.90826.71810.8524.678
SEA7-50.59911.14570.67634.88314.4845.8492.266
TB6-60.586-12.3935.2262.1080.8300.311
CIN7-50.5837.57852.91621.7607.5842.8921.135
GB8-40.57446.16888.23246.25717.0356.6452.415
PIT7-50.5556.18058.58922.0467.1542.5570.938
WAS6-60.52025.46035.61613.3844.4731.4800.466
SD4-80.502-0.8960.2770.0770.0240.008
NO5-70.490-1.6970.5600.1770.0540.016
MIN6-60.4790.7504.0301.3540.4040.1210.034
DET4-80.473-0.0160.0050.0020.0000.000
DAL6-60.47113.54615.7845.3001.5470.4480.123
MIA5-70.448-0.8430.2320.0550.0150.004
IND8-40.4201.55083.58421.8394.8191.1840.300
CLE4-80.419-0.1210.0290.0060.0020.000
STL5-6-10.3970.0952.8220.7130.1720.0400.009
BUF5-70.393-1.0730.2420.0480.0110.003
CAR3-90.382------
ARI4-80.376-0.0070.0020.0000.0000.000
NYJ5-70.360-2.6400.5300.0940.0190.004
TEN4-80.311-0.1620.0270.0040.0010.000
PHI3-90.3040.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
JAC2-100.260------
KC2-100.250------
OAK3-100.249------

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]

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