2012-09-11

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 1

Baltimore over Tampa Bay

I'm back for another year of projecting the Superbowl match up. You can read last year's Week 1 post for details on how this works, but it essentially boils down to using points for and points against to simulate the remaining games of the year stochastically, running a few million iterations, and reporting the percentage of times each team progressed to each level of the playoffs.

For the second consecutive year, Baltimore is the Week 1 favorite, because they had a dominating win. These percentages do take the toughness of the schedule into account, but it also assumes that the games so far show the true strength of a team, which a bad game could underestimate. So fear not, Carolina, your 1.2% chance of winning it all can still improve, as can my Rams' 1.6%.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL1-049.62361.51044.48123.31512.1606.334
HOU1-047.94760.51543.93722.98311.9716.229
NE1-038.59657.03341.07021.45311.1785.797
CHI1-033.17349.08934.47317.8299.2064.735
NYJ1-038.49756.30439.95120.53610.5195.384
ATL1-036.29949.64334.46217.6769.0604.627
DEN1-036.19654.17138.28519.63010.0345.124
TB1-038.01251.51135.71918.2779.3394.752
SD1-038.43855.66939.31520.09610.2365.214
DAL1-032.48148.23533.21916.8468.5294.302
SF1-036.04349.40833.93117.1538.6544.357
ARI1-035.51248.28032.71716.4098.2274.116
WAS1-029.91946.13031.49515.7967.9203.961
DET1-027.83544.24229.99514.9677.4723.720
MIN1-027.06542.42228.58214.2097.0633.501
PHI1-027.26842.21128.24513.9426.8743.387
CLE0-120.84932.36720.3159.8884.8072.344
JAC0-120.43431.60619.7449.5534.6152.240
STL0-115.35523.49714.2016.8543.3171.604
SEA0-113.08922.12313.3016.3913.0721.474
NO0-114.58222.80813.7236.5953.1751.522
GB0-111.92720.93712.5505.9922.8561.358
NYG0-110.33319.94011.9045.6572.6911.275
OAK0-111.71723.39313.9476.5703.0921.460
CAR0-111.10619.52311.4835.4062.5471.200
PIT0-116.70725.63915.1857.1283.3501.578
KC0-113.64825.36615.3507.2013.3781.589
BUF0-111.01822.65613.4456.2912.9511.387
IND0-116.36726.15015.6567.2753.3841.579
TEN0-115.25223.48913.6846.3082.9071.348
MIA0-111.88921.75512.6765.8292.6871.243
CIN0-112.82222.37812.9585.9462.7321.257

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