I'm back for another year of projecting the Superbowl match up. You can read last year's Week 1 post for details on how this works, but it essentially boils down to using points for and points against to simulate the remaining games of the year stochastically, running a few million iterations, and reporting the percentage of times each team progressed to each level of the playoffs.
For the second consecutive year, Baltimore is the Week 1 favorite, because they had a dominating win. These percentages do take the toughness of the schedule into account, but it also assumes that the games so far show the true strength of a team, which a bad game could underestimate. So fear not, Carolina, your 1.2% chance of winning it all can still improve, as can my Rams' 1.6%.
| TEAM | Record | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 1-0 | 49.623 | 61.510 | 44.481 | 23.315 | 12.160 | 6.334 |
| HOU | 1-0 | 47.947 | 60.515 | 43.937 | 22.983 | 11.971 | 6.229 |
| NE | 1-0 | 38.596 | 57.033 | 41.070 | 21.453 | 11.178 | 5.797 |
| CHI | 1-0 | 33.173 | 49.089 | 34.473 | 17.829 | 9.206 | 4.735 |
| NYJ | 1-0 | 38.497 | 56.304 | 39.951 | 20.536 | 10.519 | 5.384 |
| ATL | 1-0 | 36.299 | 49.643 | 34.462 | 17.676 | 9.060 | 4.627 |
| DEN | 1-0 | 36.196 | 54.171 | 38.285 | 19.630 | 10.034 | 5.124 |
| TB | 1-0 | 38.012 | 51.511 | 35.719 | 18.277 | 9.339 | 4.752 |
| SD | 1-0 | 38.438 | 55.669 | 39.315 | 20.096 | 10.236 | 5.214 |
| DAL | 1-0 | 32.481 | 48.235 | 33.219 | 16.846 | 8.529 | 4.302 |
| SF | 1-0 | 36.043 | 49.408 | 33.931 | 17.153 | 8.654 | 4.357 |
| ARI | 1-0 | 35.512 | 48.280 | 32.717 | 16.409 | 8.227 | 4.116 |
| WAS | 1-0 | 29.919 | 46.130 | 31.495 | 15.796 | 7.920 | 3.961 |
| DET | 1-0 | 27.835 | 44.242 | 29.995 | 14.967 | 7.472 | 3.720 |
| MIN | 1-0 | 27.065 | 42.422 | 28.582 | 14.209 | 7.063 | 3.501 |
| PHI | 1-0 | 27.268 | 42.211 | 28.245 | 13.942 | 6.874 | 3.387 |
| CLE | 0-1 | 20.849 | 32.367 | 20.315 | 9.888 | 4.807 | 2.344 |
| JAC | 0-1 | 20.434 | 31.606 | 19.744 | 9.553 | 4.615 | 2.240 |
| STL | 0-1 | 15.355 | 23.497 | 14.201 | 6.854 | 3.317 | 1.604 |
| SEA | 0-1 | 13.089 | 22.123 | 13.301 | 6.391 | 3.072 | 1.474 |
| NO | 0-1 | 14.582 | 22.808 | 13.723 | 6.595 | 3.175 | 1.522 |
| GB | 0-1 | 11.927 | 20.937 | 12.550 | 5.992 | 2.856 | 1.358 |
| NYG | 0-1 | 10.333 | 19.940 | 11.904 | 5.657 | 2.691 | 1.275 |
| OAK | 0-1 | 11.717 | 23.393 | 13.947 | 6.570 | 3.092 | 1.460 |
| CAR | 0-1 | 11.106 | 19.523 | 11.483 | 5.406 | 2.547 | 1.200 |
| PIT | 0-1 | 16.707 | 25.639 | 15.185 | 7.128 | 3.350 | 1.578 |
| KC | 0-1 | 13.648 | 25.366 | 15.350 | 7.201 | 3.378 | 1.589 |
| BUF | 0-1 | 11.018 | 22.656 | 13.445 | 6.291 | 2.951 | 1.387 |
| IND | 0-1 | 16.367 | 26.150 | 15.656 | 7.275 | 3.384 | 1.579 |
| TEN | 0-1 | 15.252 | 23.489 | 13.684 | 6.308 | 2.907 | 1.348 |
| MIA | 0-1 | 11.889 | 21.755 | 12.676 | 5.829 | 2.687 | 1.243 |
| CIN | 0-1 | 12.822 | 22.378 | 12.958 | 5.946 | 2.732 | 1.257 |
No comments:
Post a Comment