Tenets of Wilson: 2018-11

2018-11-30

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 13, Thursday

New Orleans over Kansas City

New Orleans had a chance to be the first team to clinch a playoff spot, but couldn't pull out a win against Dallas. Now they'll probably lose that honor to LA, although nothing's for sure until it happens.

Down in nearly-eliminated land, the Dallas win had the effect of lowers Arizona's playoff chances, because that's one more team than Arizona can only tie at 7-9, not beat without a tiebreaker. So, with their odds lowering significantly, they also never won the Super Bowl in today's simulations, despite there being 2 billion of them again. Oakland is also showing as 0.000000% likely to make the playoffs when rounded, which translates to less than 10 playoff appearances in the 2 billion combinations.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	10-2	0.720	98.90	99.97	94.19	59.12	35.16	21.08
LAR	10-1	0.656	99.99	100.00	95.09	53.66	25.38	13.35
CHI	8-3	0.689	92.17	98.94	76.46	40.70	22.26	12.54
KC	9-2	0.654	85.74	99.75	88.25	47.14	25.37	12.27
LAC	8-3	0.662	14.25	91.03	55.80	29.98	16.31	8.04
NE	8-3	0.606	98.43	98.97	77.13	36.93	17.17	7.44
HOU	8-3	0.605	85.66	96.22	65.77	31.16	14.50	6.26
PIT	7-3-1	0.619	80.30	90.31	52.62	26.02	12.64	5.65
BAL	6-5	0.653	18.67	59.86	33.23	17.41	9.15	4.41
DAL	7-5	0.558	67.70	76.73	38.69	14.12	5.40	2.29
SEA	6-5	0.566	0.01	67.58	32.20	12.03	4.76	2.05
IND	6-5	0.589	13.45	41.82	20.01	9.07	4.11	1.71
MIN	6-4-1	0.539	7.70	60.30	26.94	9.36	3.47	1.41
WAS	6-5	0.479	25.04	52.10	20.01	5.92	1.87	0.65
CAR	6-5	0.509	1.10	25.18	9.62	3.18	1.11	0.42
DEN	5-6	0.500	0.00	7.98	3.07	1.13	0.42	0.14
PHI	5-6	0.451	7.26	9.10	3.42	0.92	0.27	0.09
GB	4-6-1	0.494	0.13	6.17	2.23	0.69	0.23	0.08
TEN	5-6	0.431	0.89	4.33	1.39	0.42	0.13	0.04
ATL	4-7	0.452	-	2.39	0.74	0.20	0.06	0.02
MIA	5-6	0.381	1.47	4.43	1.20	0.31	0.08	0.02
CIN	5-6	0.385	0.93	3.80	1.05	0.28	0.08	0.02
CLE	4-6-1	0.442	0.11	1.34	0.44	0.14	0.04	0.01
DET	4-7	0.406	0.00	1.00	0.27	0.06	0.02	0.00
TB	4-7	0.428	-	0.54	0.15	0.04	0.01	0.00
BUF	4-7	0.272	0.10	0.15	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	3-8	0.394	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYG	3-8	0.401	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	3-8	0.380	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	2-9	0.397	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
OAK	2-9	0.263	-	0.00	-	-	-	-
ARI	2-9	0.243	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-11-27

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 12, Final

New Orleans over Kansas City

Houston raised their chances a little and Tennessee lost some ground, but in general things remained the same as Sunday. Also, I didn't notice that yesterday I showed no chance of Oakland winning any of their potential playoff games. A team's chances of winning any game never fall to zero, but since I run full simulations based on probabilities, a bad enough team may show 0 Super Bowl wins. This time of year I try to run over 2 billion simulations each time to avoid that, but Oakland still only managed to win at most one playoff game in any given simulation.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	10-1	0.711	99.50	99.99	96.84	61.92	35.76	21.03
LAR	10-1	0.656	99.99	100.00	94.62	52.37	25.36	13.34
KC	9-2	0.654	85.74	99.75	88.28	47.15	25.38	12.39
CHI	8-3	0.689	92.17	99.14	74.20	39.95	21.88	12.33
LAC	8-3	0.663	14.25	91.02	55.81	29.99	16.32	8.11
NE	8-3	0.606	98.43	98.97	77.07	36.90	17.16	7.51
HOU	8-3	0.605	85.56	96.18	65.64	31.10	14.47	6.31
PIT	7-3-1	0.619	80.51	90.41	52.79	26.10	12.68	5.72
BAL	6-5	0.653	18.47	59.79	33.20	17.39	9.14	4.44
SEA	6-5	0.566	0.01	70.38	34.50	12.81	5.16	2.23
IND	6-5	0.589	13.55	41.94	20.06	9.10	4.12	1.73
DAL	6-5	0.549	50.83	57.83	28.41	10.16	3.85	1.60
MIN	6-4-1	0.539	7.70	63.48	28.96	10.05	3.79	1.54
WAS	6-5	0.479	38.16	56.38	22.55	6.67	2.13	0.74
CAR	6-5	0.509	0.50	28.53	11.12	3.61	1.29	0.48
DEN	5-6	0.500	0.00	7.96	3.06	1.13	0.41	0.14
PHI	5-6	0.450	11.00	12.34	4.76	1.29	0.38	0.12
GB	4-6-1	0.494	0.13	7.11	2.60	0.79	0.28	0.10
TEN	5-6	0.431	0.88	4.30	1.38	0.42	0.13	0.04
ATL	4-7	0.452	-	2.84	0.89	0.24	0.08	0.02
MIA	5-6	0.381	1.47	4.40	1.19	0.31	0.08	0.02
CIN	5-6	0.385	0.91	3.78	1.04	0.28	0.07	0.02
CLE	4-6-1	0.442	0.11	1.33	0.44	0.14	0.04	0.01
DET	4-7	0.406	0.00	1.25	0.34	0.08	0.02	0.01
TB	4-7	0.428	-	0.71	0.20	0.05	0.02	0.00
BUF	4-7	0.272	0.10	0.15	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	3-8	0.394	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYG	3-8	0.401	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	3-8	0.380	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	2-9	0.397	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ARI	2-9	0.243	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
OAK	2-9	0.262	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	-

2018-11-26

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New Orleans over Kansas City

The projection remains the same this Sunday, and the only elimination is the New York Jets from the AFC East. That's because at best they could tie New England in record and head to head, but would lose on the divisional record tiebreaker, since they are already 0-4 and could at best reach 2-4, compared against New England's 3-0 which will be at worst 3-3. No one has officially clinched a playoff spot, and I don't expect that to change after Monday's game featuring 2 AFC South teams, Houston and Tennessee.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	10-1	0.711	99.50	99.99	96.84	61.92	35.76	21.12
LAR	10-1	0.656	99.99	100.00	94.62	52.37	25.36	13.41
KC	9-2	0.654	85.74	99.76	89.70	48.47	26.35	12.86
CHI	8-3	0.689	92.17	99.15	74.21	39.96	21.88	12.39
LAC	8-3	0.663	14.25	91.17	57.26	30.96	17.00	8.45
NE	8-3	0.606	98.43	98.95	79.68	38.91	18.18	7.95
PIT	7-3-1	0.619	80.51	90.21	55.16	27.67	13.52	6.10
BAL	6-5	0.653	18.48	59.37	34.04	17.90	9.47	4.61
HOU	7-3	0.572	71.87	86.45	51.95	22.84	9.88	3.99
SEA	6-5	0.566	0.01	70.40	34.51	12.82	5.16	2.24
IND	6-5	0.589	20.43	42.60	20.88	9.50	4.33	1.82
DAL	6-5	0.549	51.40	58.20	28.60	10.22	3.88	1.62
MIN	6-4-1	0.539	7.70	63.61	29.01	10.07	3.80	1.55
WAS	6-5	0.479	37.08	55.11	22.01	6.51	2.08	0.73
CAR	6-5	0.509	0.50	28.62	11.15	3.62	1.29	0.49
TEN	5-5	0.472	7.70	14.55	5.60	1.91	0.65	0.20
DEN	5-6	0.500	0.00	7.43	2.97	1.09	0.41	0.14
PHI	5-6	0.451	11.50	12.91	4.98	1.35	0.40	0.13
GB	4-6-1	0.494	0.13	7.15	2.61	0.79	0.28	0.10
ATL	4-7	0.452	-	2.85	0.90	0.24	0.08	0.03
MIA	5-6	0.381	1.47	4.37	1.23	0.32	0.09	0.02
CIN	5-6	0.385	0.90	3.63	1.04	0.28	0.08	0.02
CLE	4-6-1	0.442	0.11	1.34	0.46	0.14	0.05	0.01
DET	4-7	0.406	0.00	1.27	0.35	0.08	0.02	0.01
TB	4-7	0.428	-	0.71	0.20	0.05	0.02	0.00
BUF	4-7	0.272	0.10	0.15	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYG	3-8	0.401	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	3-8	0.394	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	3-8	0.380	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	2-9	0.397	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ARI	2-9	0.243	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
OAK	2-9	0.262	-	0.00	0.00	-	-	-

2018-11-25

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

Once again, Clemson remains #1, and in fact my top 4 stayed in place. #3 and #4 will face off next week for the SEC, which I would think will knock one of them down, but of course it depends what the others teams do, too. I've got UCF up to #6. If my rankings were the ones determining the playoff seedings, they'd have been really motivated to find a way to reschedule that UNC game that was canceled earlier this year. Notre Dame will also suffer for not having a conference title game to play in next week (assuming they would have won it, of course).

Missouri shut out Arkansas with a 38-0 win (though remember, all wins count the same in my system, set up following the old BCS rules), but only boosted themselves up 2 spots to #28.

UTEP lost again and remains #129. No teams in that neighborhood have any games remaining, so I award them worst team of the year. I suppose some schedule strength changes could still happen and drag down Central Michigan below them, but it doesn't seem too likely.

1	Clemson	12-0
2	Notre Dame	12-0
3	Alabama	12-0
4	Georgia	11-1
5	Oklahoma	11-1
6	UCF	11-0
7	Ohio State	11-1
8	Michigan	10-2
9	Washington State	10-2
10	Boise State	10-2
11	Cincinnati	10-2
12	Fresno State	10-2
13	Utah	9-3
14	Florida	9-3
15	Kentucky	9-3
16	Washington	9-3
17	LSU	9-3
18	Army	9-2
19	Buffalo	10-2
20	Utah State	10-2
21	Penn State	9-3
22	Syracuse	9-3
23	Texas	9-3
24	Appalachian State	9-2
25	Texas A&M	8-4
26	Troy	9-3
27	Georgia Southern	9-3
28	Missouri	8-4
29	Mississippi State	8-4
30	NC State	8-3
31	Iowa	8-4
32	UAB	9-3
33	West Virginia	8-3
34	Northwestern	8-4
35	North Texas	9-3
36	Stanford	7-4
37	Temple	8-4
38	Marshall	8-3
39	Oregon	8-4
40	Arkansas State	8-4
41	Middle Tennessee	8-4
42	Pittsburgh	7-5
43	Hawai'i	8-5
44	Ohio	8-4
45	Duke	7-5
46	Auburn	7-5
47	Iowa State	7-4
48	Boston College	7-5
49	Georgia Tech	7-5
50	Miami	7-5
51	Memphis	8-4
52	Michigan State	7-5
53	Houston	8-4
54	South Carolina	6-5
55	Florida Intl	8-4
56	Arizona State	7-5
57	Northern Illinois	7-5
58	California	7-4
59	Virginia	7-5
60	Louisiana	7-5
61	San Diego State	7-5
62	Eastern Michigan	7-5
63	South Florida	7-5
64	Wisconsin	7-5
65	Vanderbilt	6-6
66	Purdue	6-6
67	Nevada	7-5
68	Western Michigan	7-5
69	Wake Forest	6-6
70	BYU	6-6
71	TCU	6-6
72	Toledo	7-5
73	Louisiana Tech	7-5
74	Tulane	6-6
75	Minnesota	6-6
76	Oklahoma State	6-6
77	Baylor	6-6
78	Wyoming	6-6
79	Miami (OH)	6-6
80	Tennessee	5-7
81	Florida State	5-7
82	UL Monroe	6-6
83	Southern Mississippi	6-5
84	Indiana	5-7
85	Texas Tech	5-7
86	Virginia Tech	5-6
87	Maryland	5-7
88	USC	5-7
89	Coastal Carolina	5-7
90	Florida Atlantic	5-7
91	Kansas State	5-7
92	Ole Miss	5-7
93	Arizona	5-7
94	Air Force	5-7
95	SMU	5-7
96	Colorado	5-7
97	Charlotte	5-7
98	Nebraska	4-8
99	UMass	4-8
100	UCLA	3-9
101	Akron	4-7
102	Illinois	4-8
103	UNLV	4-8
104	Ball State	4-8
105	Navy	3-9
106	East Carolina	3-8
107	Old Dominion	4-8
108	South Alabama	3-9
109	Kansas	3-9
110	New Mexico	3-9
111	Louisville	2-10
112	Tulsa	3-9
113	Colorado State	3-9
114	Bowling Green	3-9
115	Georgia State	2-10
116	UTSA	3-9
117	New Mexico State	3-9
118	Western Kentucky	3-9
119	North Carolina	2-9
120	Oregon State	2-10
121	Arkansas	2-10
122	Texas State	3-9
123	San Jose State	1-11
124	Rice	2-11
125	Kent State	2-10
126	UConn	1-11
127	Rutgers	1-11
128	Central Michigan	1-11
129	UTEP	1-11

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson

2018-11-23

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 12, Thursday

New Orleans over Kansas City

I had a little downtime on thanksgiving, so I ran my numbers after Chicago beat Detroit in the first game of the day, and Chicago had taken over as the strongest team in the league with a .689, just ahead of New Orleans' .688. But, with a big win over Atlanta, New Orleans jumped ahead again, and remains the Super Bowl favorite. We had a few divisional eliminations, both by virtue of New Orleans 10-1 record. Tampa and Atlanta's 7 losses each mean neither can catch them now. Los Angeles, also at 10-1, could be the first team to clinch a playoff spot this weekend, and they're on bye. If Seattle loses, the head-to-head sweep tiebreaker mean that LA wins the NFC West. If they don't clinch this weekend, I might have to spend some time to try to construct the rare scenario in which they don't make the playoffs with 10 wins. That's only happened 6 times since 2002 when we've had 32 teams, or a total of 8 times since 1990 when the playoffs were expanded to 12 teams, but it has also happened once in that time frame with an 11-win team, New England in 2008.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	10-1	0.711	98.54	99.99	96.92	62.61	36.17	21.90
KC	9-2	0.654	91.24	99.80	91.79	52.68	29.58	14.44
LAR	10-1	0.656	99.99	100.00	94.47	52.44	25.47	13.86
CHI	8-3	0.689	93.84	99.08	74.63	40.36	22.12	12.86
PIT	7-2-1	0.627	90.82	96.18	73.62	39.62	20.33	9.35
NE	7-3	0.580	93.61	96.11	68.21	32.05	14.63	6.02
LAC	7-3	0.603	8.75	84.63	47.93	23.02	11.37	4.95
HOU	7-3	0.572	75.58	87.80	55.13	25.08	11.30	4.56
BAL	5-5	0.621	7.03	51.41	28.39	14.14	7.25	3.29
DAL	6-5	0.549	54.40	61.66	31.30	11.18	4.24	1.84
IND	5-5	0.583	16.31	34.93	17.60	8.01	3.76	1.56
SEA	5-5	0.561	0.01	46.99	22.27	8.15	3.27	1.46
CAR	6-4	0.515	1.46	52.64	23.05	7.54	2.69	1.07
MIN	5-4-1	0.524	4.67	44.47	19.19	6.40	2.35	0.96
WAS	6-5	0.479	37.90	58.03	23.90	7.07	2.26	0.83
GB	4-5-1	0.508	1.49	23.06	9.17	2.91	1.04	0.41
TEN	5-5	0.472	8.02	14.96	6.00	2.09	0.75	0.24
CIN	5-5	0.409	2.13	14.16	4.75	1.39	0.43	0.11
PHI	4-6	0.444	7.43	8.42	3.32	0.88	0.25	0.08
MIA	5-5	0.386	6.03	14.37	4.46	1.21	0.35	0.08
DEN	4-6	0.486	0.00	4.00	1.58	0.57	0.21	0.07
ATL	4-7	0.452	-	3.56	1.16	0.31	0.10	0.03
DET	4-7	0.406	0.00	1.34	0.38	0.09	0.02	0.01
CLE	3-6-1	0.413	0.02	0.76	0.25	0.07	0.02	0.01
NYJ	3-7	0.408	0.24	0.37	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00
JAC	3-7	0.400	0.10	0.37	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00
NYG	3-7	0.407	0.27	0.38	0.13	0.03	0.01	0.00
TB	3-7	0.404	-	0.35	0.10	0.02	0.01	0.00
SF	2-8	0.432	-	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
BUF	3-7	0.273	0.13	0.16	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
ARI	2-8	0.290	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
OAK	2-8	0.288	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

2018-11-20

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 11, Final

New Orleans over Kansas City

LA beat Kansas City in a crazy game that would have been my projected Super Bowl pairing if not for New Orleans' blowout Sunday, but New Orleans' new extraordinarily high strength is keeping them favored to win the NFC. Curiously enough, 10 wins still doesn't clinch a playoff berth for Los Angeles, but they did cross the 99.999% threshold now, making the playoffs in 99.999855% of the simulations I did.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	9-1	0.688	97.05	99.92	95.15	59.11	33.30	19.32
LAR	10-1	0.656	99.99	100.00	95.93	55.48	28.13	15.31
KC	9-2	0.654	91.24	99.80	91.75	52.67	29.56	14.96
CHI	7-3	0.673	89.49	97.32	71.58	38.00	20.85	11.74
PIT	7-2-1	0.627	91.22	96.33	74.04	39.85	20.45	9.76
NE	7-3	0.580	93.61	96.13	68.10	31.98	14.60	6.25
LAC	7-3	0.603	8.75	84.66	47.95	23.02	11.37	5.15
HOU	7-3	0.572	75.52	87.84	55.05	25.03	11.28	4.75
BAL	5-5	0.621	6.68	50.79	28.02	13.95	7.15	3.37
IND	5-5	0.583	16.55	35.48	17.88	8.13	3.82	1.65
SEA	5-5	0.561	0.01	47.27	22.88	8.78	3.65	1.63
WAS	6-4	0.498	64.41	75.72	34.86	11.41	3.96	1.52
CAR	6-4	0.515	2.91	53.41	24.11	8.30	3.07	1.23
MIN	5-4-1	0.524	7.35	44.62	19.81	6.94	2.65	1.08
DAL	5-5	0.531	28.96	38.44	18.53	6.61	2.52	1.05
GB	4-5-1	0.508	2.59	22.81	9.46	3.16	1.17	0.46
TEN	5-5	0.472	7.84	14.72	5.90	2.05	0.74	0.24
ATL	4-6	0.477	0.04	8.45	3.23	1.00	0.34	0.12
CIN	5-5	0.409	2.09	14.22	4.76	1.40	0.43	0.12
MIA	5-5	0.386	6.03	14.35	4.45	1.21	0.34	0.09
PHI	4-6	0.444	6.42	7.43	2.94	0.82	0.25	0.08
DEN	4-6	0.486	0.00	4.02	1.59	0.57	0.22	0.07
DET	4-6	0.421	0.58	3.88	1.29	0.33	0.10	0.03
CLE	3-6-1	0.413	0.02	0.76	0.25	0.07	0.02	0.01
NYJ	3-7	0.408	0.24	0.37	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00
JAC	3-7	0.400	0.09	0.36	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00
NYG	3-7	0.407	0.21	0.33	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00
TB	3-7	0.404	0.00	0.38	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00
SF	2-8	0.432	-	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
BUF	3-7	0.273	0.12	0.15	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
ARI	2-8	0.290	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
OAK	2-8	0.288	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

2018-11-19

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 11, Sunday

New Orleans over Kansas City

For the first time all season, LA is not the favorite to win the NFC. We'll see if they can recapture the spot after Monday night's game, although I'd say this is still a fair comparison now because both teams have played 10 games. LA also passed the 99.99% mark for making the playoffs, something they were slightly below last week, though at one point my chart rounded them up from 99.985%+. We still only have 3 eliminations from divisions. Sometime next week we'll probably see the eliminations start happening quickly.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	9-1	0.688	97.04	99.92	95.72	59.80	33.15	19.06
KC	9-1	0.665	94.81	99.90	95.16	55.78	31.93	16.38
LAR	9-1	0.660	99.93	99.99	92.78	52.56	26.89	14.62
CHI	7-3	0.683	90.77	97.68	74.80	41.16	22.84	13.00
PIT	7-2-1	0.627	91.30	96.35	73.51	39.55	19.95	9.43
NE	7-3	0.579	93.60	96.15	67.29	31.45	14.13	5.99
LAC	7-3	0.603	5.19	84.49	46.53	21.88	10.73	4.81
HOU	7-3	0.572	75.51	87.86	54.43	24.59	10.92	4.55
BAL	5-5	0.621	6.58	50.39	27.77	13.51	6.89	3.21
IND	5-5	0.583	16.54	35.53	17.92	7.98	3.72	1.59
SEA	5-5	0.561	0.07	47.80	22.98	8.71	3.59	1.58
WAS	6-4	0.498	64.41	75.87	35.45	11.51	3.94	1.50
CAR	6-4	0.515	2.92	53.87	24.21	8.23	3.02	1.19
DAL	5-5	0.531	28.97	38.66	18.67	6.59	2.48	1.02
MIN	5-4-1	0.512	6.27	42.34	18.15	6.10	2.24	0.88
GB	4-5-1	0.508	2.41	23.14	9.50	3.14	1.15	0.45
TEN	5-5	0.472	7.86	14.77	5.93	2.02	0.72	0.23
ATL	4-6	0.477	0.04	8.60	3.25	0.99	0.34	0.12
CIN	5-5	0.409	2.10	14.30	4.81	1.37	0.42	0.11
MIA	5-5	0.386	6.04	14.54	4.52	1.19	0.34	0.09
PHI	4-6	0.444	6.42	7.46	2.97	0.82	0.24	0.08
DEN	4-6	0.486	0.00	4.05	1.61	0.55	0.21	0.07
DET	4-6	0.421	0.54	3.91	1.28	0.33	0.10	0.03
CLE	3-6-1	0.413	0.02	0.77	0.25	0.07	0.02	0.01
NYJ	3-7	0.408	0.23	0.37	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00
JAC	3-7	0.400	0.09	0.37	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00
TB	3-7	0.404	0.00	0.39	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00
NYG	3-7	0.407	0.20	0.33	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00
SF	2-8	0.432	-	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
BUF	3-7	0.273	0.12	0.15	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
ARI	2-8	0.290	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
OAK	2-8	0.288	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams

2018-11-18

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

Clemson has a stranglehold on #1, and Alabama actually lost ground to fall back to #3. UCF is making their case again this year, and I have them up to #7. We've got one more week of scheduled games, then conference championships, before the final playoff field is set. I doubt the committee will put UCF in even if they reach 12-0, but I'm curious if they'll be able to at least reach #4 in my rankings.

Missouri beat Tennessee 50-17, and is all the way up to #30. That's no consolation for the hardcore Mizzou fans because of the close game they could have won. Still, 7-4 is a decent record going into the last week before bowl selection.

UTEP lost again and remains #129.

1	Clemson	11-0
2	Notre Dame	11-0
3	Alabama	11-0
4	Georgia	10-1
5	Michigan	10-1
6	Oklahoma	10-1
7	UCF	10-0
8	Washington State	10-1
9	Ohio State	10-1
10	LSU	9-2
11	Army	9-2
12	Utah State	10-1
13	Boise State	9-2
14	Cincinnati	9-2
15	Fresno State	9-2
16	Troy	9-2
17	Florida	8-3
18	Kentucky	8-3
19	Utah	8-3
20	Buffalo	9-2
21	Penn State	8-3
22	Washington	8-3
23	UAB	9-2
24	West Virginia	8-2
25	Texas	8-3
26	Syracuse	8-3
27	Georgia Southern	8-3
28	Appalachian State	8-2
29	Texas A&M	7-4
30	Missouri	7-4
31	Mississippi State	7-4
32	NC State	7-3
33	Pittsburgh	7-4
34	Duke	7-4
35	Iowa	7-4
36	Northwestern	7-4
37	Auburn	7-4
38	Temple	7-4
39	North Texas	8-3
40	Georgia Tech	7-4
41	Houston	8-3
42	Boston College	7-4
43	Virginia	7-4
44	Stanford	6-4
45	Oregon	7-4
46	South Carolina	6-4
47	Northern Illinois	7-4
48	Arkansas State	7-4
49	Wisconsin	7-4
50	Florida Intl	8-3
51	Ohio	7-4
52	South Florida	7-4
53	Nevada	7-4
54	San Diego State	7-4
55	Marshall	7-3
56	Louisiana Tech	7-4
57	Iowa State	6-4
58	Hawai'i	7-5
59	Middle Tennessee	7-4
60	Michigan State	6-5
61	BYU	6-5
62	Miami	6-5
63	Oklahoma State	6-5
64	California	6-4
65	Eastern Michigan	6-5
66	Memphis	7-4
67	Arizona State	6-5
68	Louisiana	6-5
69	Tennessee	5-6
70	UL Monroe	6-5
71	Toledo	6-5
72	Vanderbilt	5-6
73	Florida State	5-6
74	Purdue	5-6
75	Coastal Carolina	5-6
76	Wake Forest	5-6
77	Texas Tech	5-6
78	TCU	5-6
79	Western Michigan	6-5
80	Indiana	5-6
81	Tulane	5-6
82	Baylor	5-6
83	Wyoming	5-6
84	Florida Atlantic	5-6
85	Maryland	5-6
86	Kansas State	5-6
87	Minnesota	5-6
88	Miami (OH)	5-6
89	Ole Miss	5-6
90	USC	5-6
91	SMU	5-6
92	Southern Mississippi	5-5
93	Arizona	5-6
94	Colorado	5-6
95	Nebraska	4-7
96	Virginia Tech	4-6
97	Air Force	4-7
98	UMass	4-8
99	UCLA	3-8
100	Akron	4-6
101	Illinois	4-7
102	Charlotte	4-7
103	Ball State	4-7
104	Old Dominion	4-7
105	Navy	3-8
106	East Carolina	3-7
107	New Mexico	3-8
108	Kansas	3-8
109	Colorado State	3-8
110	Louisville	2-9
111	New Mexico State	3-8
112	Bowling Green	3-8
113	UNLV	3-8
114	Georgia State	2-9
115	UTSA	3-8
116	North Carolina	2-8
117	Oregon State	2-9
118	South Alabama	2-9
119	Texas State	3-8
120	Arkansas	2-9
121	Tulsa	2-9
122	Kent State	2-9
123	San Jose State	1-10
124	Western Kentucky	2-9
125	Rutgers	1-10
126	UConn	1-10
127	Central Michigan	1-10
128	Rice	1-11
129	UTEP	1-10

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson

2018-11-16

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams

Seattle beat Green Bay on Thursday, doubling their chances at the NFC West from .04% to .08%. LA has it pretty well locked up at 9-1. They did manage to move from a 25% to 38% chance of making the playoffs, though. At 5-5, they'll have to win a few more games and won't be able to back in, but it's attainable. Green Bay moved the opposite direction, down to 18% from 31% for the playoffs, and bumped up both Chicago and Minnesota's chances of winning the NFC North.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	9-1	0.665	87.58	99.90	93.65	55.58	32.30	17.52
LAR	9-1	0.660	99.92	99.98	94.25	55.70	30.88	16.95
NO	8-1	0.638	87.21	98.95	89.47	50.84	26.08	13.69
CHI	6-3	0.661	76.66	91.17	67.33	37.08	20.66	11.37
PIT	6-2-1	0.616	86.56	92.88	69.55	36.86	18.29	8.97
NE	7-3	0.579	93.47	95.89	69.24	33.17	15.05	6.81
LAC	7-2	0.604	12.42	92.15	55.02	26.36	13.15	6.28
HOU	6-3	0.567	57.96	77.34	45.60	20.54	9.18	4.04
BAL	4-5	0.615	7.24	37.39	20.74	10.04	5.10	2.49
CAR	6-3	0.516	12.16	67.11	33.80	12.82	4.99	2.01
WAS	6-3	0.502	66.38	74.57	36.68	13.26	4.95	1.93
TEN	5-4	0.545	32.49	45.28	23.59	10.00	4.27	1.79
MIN	5-3-1	0.534	19.19	51.71	24.65	9.69	4.01	1.68
SEA	5-5	0.561	0.08	38.37	18.66	7.68	3.37	1.50
DAL	4-5	0.524	17.46	22.71	10.81	4.09	1.62	0.67
PHI	4-5	0.534	16.09	19.23	9.32	3.61	1.46	0.61
IND	4-5	0.536	9.20	16.91	7.78	3.14	1.33	0.55
GB	4-5-1	0.508	3.78	18.04	7.69	2.80	1.10	0.43
ATL	4-5	0.483	0.61	15.43	6.41	2.18	0.80	0.30
CIN	5-4	0.416	6.15	23.81	8.69	2.59	0.81	0.24
MIA	5-5	0.386	6.21	14.09	4.57	1.23	0.36	0.10
DEN	3-6	0.484	0.00	1.84	0.74	0.26	0.10	0.04
DET	3-6	0.421	0.38	1.48	0.51	0.15	0.05	0.01
JAC	3-6	0.410	0.36	1.17	0.40	0.11	0.04	0.01
TB	3-6	0.407	0.03	1.10	0.36	0.10	0.03	0.01
CLE	3-6-1	0.413	0.05	0.85	0.28	0.08	0.03	0.01
NYJ	3-7	0.408	0.21	0.33	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00
NYG	2-7	0.397	0.07	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
BUF	3-7	0.273	0.12	0.16	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
SF	2-8	0.432	-	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
ARI	2-7	0.298	-	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
OAK	1-8	0.294	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams

2018-11-13

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 10, Final

Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams

San Francisco lost, so they're now definitely eliminated from winning the NFC West. The Giants are hanging on by a thread at 2-7. I hadn't really been paying attention to the schedule, nor did I catch on that the NFC West teams were playing the AFC West, so I didn't realize that my projected Super Bowl matchup is going to happen next Monday. I'll be interested to see if both teams are still projected conference winners after one gets a loss.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	9-1	0.665	87.63	99.90	93.67	55.60	32.31	17.54
LAR	9-1	0.660	99.96	99.99	94.28	55.85	31.00	17.01
NO	8-1	0.638	87.17	98.99	89.52	51.00	26.19	13.74
CHI	6-3	0.661	74.00	90.59	67.04	36.94	20.60	11.34
PIT	6-2-1	0.616	86.56	92.88	69.55	36.86	18.29	8.98
NE	7-3	0.579	93.47	95.90	69.24	33.17	15.05	6.82
LAC	7-2	0.604	12.37	92.14	54.99	26.35	13.14	6.28
HOU	6-3	0.567	57.96	77.34	45.60	20.54	9.18	4.05
BAL	4-5	0.615	7.24	37.39	20.74	10.04	5.10	2.50
CAR	6-3	0.516	12.20	67.25	33.99	12.91	5.03	2.02
WAS	6-3	0.502	66.37	74.56	36.77	13.30	4.98	1.94
TEN	5-4	0.545	32.49	45.28	23.59	10.00	4.27	1.79
MIN	5-3-1	0.534	18.25	51.61	24.72	9.71	4.02	1.68
SEA	4-5	0.556	0.04	25.71	12.32	5.00	2.17	0.96
GB	4-4-1	0.514	7.43	31.23	13.83	5.12	2.02	0.81
DAL	4-5	0.524	17.46	22.86	10.91	4.13	1.64	0.67
PHI	4-5	0.534	16.10	19.30	9.38	3.63	1.47	0.62
IND	4-5	0.536	9.20	16.91	7.78	3.14	1.33	0.55
ATL	4-5	0.483	0.60	15.19	6.33	2.15	0.79	0.29
CIN	5-4	0.416	6.15	23.81	8.69	2.59	0.81	0.24
MIA	5-5	0.386	6.21	14.10	4.57	1.23	0.36	0.10
DEN	3-6	0.484	0.00	1.83	0.74	0.25	0.10	0.04
DET	3-6	0.421	0.33	1.50	0.53	0.15	0.05	0.02
JAC	3-6	0.410	0.36	1.17	0.40	0.11	0.04	0.01
TB	3-6	0.407	0.03	1.07	0.35	0.10	0.03	0.01
CLE	3-6-1	0.413	0.05	0.85	0.28	0.08	0.03	0.01
NYJ	3-7	0.408	0.20	0.33	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00
NYG	2-7	0.397	0.07	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
BUF	3-7	0.273	0.12	0.16	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
SF	2-8	0.432	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ARI	2-7	0.298	-	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
OAK	1-8	0.294	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams