Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New England over Carolina

Every year, I seem to fall under the spell of the undefeated team, and start to assume they'll win every game the rest of the year. I was sure New England would beat Denver last night, even though Denver was only 2 games behind them. The snow added a bit more randomness to the game, I think, but Denver came away with a legitimate victory in overtime.

Now that I've seen a 10-0 team lose this year, I won't take Carolina's games for granted either. I will make a point to watch them, and probably root for them to ultimately go 19-0.

Believe it or not, no one is eliminated from the playoffs just yet. Tampa Bay was eliminated from winning the NFC South, since they can only win 10 and cannot catch Carolina. Denver's win eliminated San Diego from the AFC West, Cincinnati's win over St. Louis eliminated Cleveland from the AFC North ahead of their divisional game with Baltimore tonight, and San Francisco directly caused their own demise in the NFC West race by losing to Arizona. Buffalo is also eliminated from the AFC East. They could still tie New England, but New England has beaten them twice, so they cannot win the division via a 2-team tiebreaker. In a 3 team tiebreaker with the Jets, New England's 3-1 head to head record would beat Buffalo's 2-2 and the Jets' 1-3.

As I said, the Rams lost again, and Jeff Fisher blew up in his press conference. He might not give the Rams a chance to fire him, he might just quite before the year is out.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-1	0.716	99.92	100.00	97.04	62.34	36.24	20.11
CAR	11-0	0.713	99.96	100.00	99.84	66.42	38.02	20.94
ARI	9-2	0.698	97.13	99.67	91.32	57.80	31.07	16.58
CIN	9-2	0.696	98.77	99.95	88.55	53.94	28.92	15.36
KC	6-5	0.630	8.75	82.13	49.35	21.38	10.02	4.60
GB	7-4	0.599	39.75	87.63	53.69	21.59	9.42	4.02
DEN	9-2	0.599	90.98	98.74	71.22	30.94	13.05	5.57
SEA	6-5	0.593	2.86	53.21	28.97	11.16	4.88	2.05
NYJ	6-5	0.589	0.08	44.12	22.20	8.65	3.71	1.55
MIN	8-3	0.588	59.89	92.94	58.28	23.18	9.79	4.07
PIT	6-5	0.574	1.23	36.71	18.28	6.79	2.81	1.13
ATL	6-5	0.554	0.04	36.23	17.65	6.05	2.43	0.93
NYG	5-6	0.526	31.53	33.45	15.00	4.87	1.77	0.63
BUF	5-6	0.518	-	16.00	6.53	2.09	0.76	0.27
HOU	6-5	0.496	40.58	49.73	19.53	6.01	2.01	0.66
IND	6-5	0.478	56.95	60.30	22.81	6.68	2.12	0.67
OAK	5-6	0.470	0.27	8.68	3.42	0.95	0.31	0.09
BAL	3-7	0.455	0.00	0.52	0.18	0.05	0.02	0.00
WAS	5-6	0.448	55.67	56.82	21.10	5.52	1.63	0.47
TB	5-6	0.440	-	12.73	4.77	1.18	0.35	0.10
PHI	4-7	0.439	10.52	10.55	3.82	0.98	0.28	0.08
CHI	5-6	0.432	0.28	8.57	3.03	0.72	0.21	0.06
STL	4-7	0.394	0.01	1.92	0.58	0.12	0.03	0.01
DET	4-7	0.388	0.08	2.83	0.90	0.19	0.05	0.01
SD	3-8	0.386	-	0.07	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
TEN	2-9	0.383	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	4-7	0.383	2.47	2.90	0.83	0.18	0.04	0.01
MIA	4-7	0.380	-	0.14	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
DAL	3-8	0.378	2.27	2.27	0.71	0.15	0.04	0.01
NO	4-7	0.372	-	1.17	0.34	0.07	0.02	0.00
CLE	2-8	0.333	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	3-8	0.259	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

If one can define such a thing in the NCAA, the regular season is mostly over. We've still got conference championships and Army-Navy, but most teams know where they stand. That said, the Big 10 title game will be quite important, featuring teams #3 and #4 in my rankings. Depending on what the committee says this week, that game could become a de facto play-in game for the 3rd or 4th playoff position. I'd say Alabama should be safely in the playoff, moving up to #2 in my rankings, ahead of even undefeated Iowa.

I don't talk much about the FCS (formerly Division 1-AA), but I do include their games in my rankings, since most FBS teams have at least one game against an FCS opponent. In case you didn't know, they have a real playoff, and have for years. I saw there were 11 games this week, which struck me as too few for the last week of the regular season, but a peculiar number for the first week of playoffs. I did some digging, and learned that not every conference participates in the FCS playoffs, including the SWAC. Perhaps this wasn't news to you, but it was to me.

Missouri lost their last game and finished 5-7, but there are not enough 6-win teams to fill out all the bowls this year. Everyone around here has their fingers crossed one of those lowest-tier bowls will give Gary Pinkel one final game. Missouri certainly didn't earn it, but I'll take it if it happens.

What if LSU had won their canceled week 1 game against McNeese State?
LSU would move from #28 to #16 with that win, still nowhere near the playoff. But more interestingly, I would have Alabama ranked #1 ahead of Clemson. McNeese State is 10-0 and in the final 8 of the FCS playoffs, so their strength, and therefore LSU's and Alabama's, could continue to increase.

1	Clemson	12-0
2	Alabama	11-1
3	Iowa	12-0
4	Michigan State	11-1
5	Oklahoma	11-1
6	Ohio State	11-1
7	North Carolina	11-1
8	Stanford	10-2
9	Northwestern	10-2
10	Houston	11-1
11	Notre Dame	10-2
12	Florida State	10-2
13	Florida	10-2
14	Oklahoma State	10-2
15	TCU	10-2
16	Ole Miss	9-3
17	Oregon	9-3
18	Navy	9-2
19	Temple	10-2
20	Western Kentucky	10-2
21	Utah	9-3
22	Michigan	9-3
23	Baylor	9-2
24	Memphis	9-3
25	Georgia	9-3
26	BYU	9-3
27	USC	8-4
28	LSU	8-3
29	Toledo	9-2
30	Bowling Green	9-3
31	Mississippi State	8-4
32	Wisconsin	9-3
33	Miami (FL)	8-4
34	Pittsburgh	8-4
35	Texas A&M	8-4
36	Tennessee	8-4
37	San Diego State	9-3
38	UCLA	8-4
39	Washington State	8-4
40	Appalachian State	9-2
41	Arkansas	7-5
42	Marshall	9-3
43	California	7-5
44	Southern Mississippi	9-3
45	Georgia Southern	8-3
46	South Florida	8-4
47	Ohio	8-4
48	Louisiana Tech	8-4
49	Penn State	7-5
50	West Virginia	7-4
51	Arkansas State	8-3
52	Air Force	8-4
53	Texas Tech	7-5
54	Boise State	8-4
55	Northern Illinois	8-4
56	Louisville	7-5
57	Cincinnati	7-5
58	Western Michigan	7-5
59	Auburn	6-6
60	NC State	7-5
61	Arizona State	6-6
62	Central Michigan	7-5
63	Duke	7-5
64	Washington	6-6
65	Arizona	6-6
66	Utah State	6-6
67	Middle Tennessee	7-5
68	Akron	7-5
69	New Mexico	7-5
70	Indiana	6-6
71	Colorado State	7-5
72	Virginia Tech	6-6
73	Connecticut	6-6
74	Minnesota	5-7
75	Nebraska	5-7
76	Illinois	5-7
77	Tulsa	6-6
78	Missouri	5-7
79	East Carolina	5-7
80	Kansas State	5-6
81	Nevada	6-6
82	Kentucky	5-7
83	Virginia	4-8
84	South Alabama	5-6
85	San Jose State	5-7
86	Texas	4-7
87	Vanderbilt	4-8
88	Buffalo	5-7
89	Georgia State	5-6
90	Florida Intl	5-7
91	Old Dominion	5-7
92	UTEP	5-7
93	Syracuse	4-8
94	Maryland	3-9
95	Rutgers	4-8
96	Colorado	4-9
97	Georgia Tech	3-9
98	Rice	5-7
99	Iowa State	3-9
100	South Carolina	3-9
101	Idaho	4-8
102	Louisiana Lafayette	4-7
103	Wake Forest	3-9
104	Troy	3-8
105	Ball State	3-9
106	Boston College	3-9
107	Fresno State	3-9
108	New Mexico State	3-8
109	Texas State	3-8
110	Purdue	2-10
111	Oregon State	2-10
112	Florida Atlantic	3-9
113	Kent State	3-9
114	SMU	2-10
115	Tulane	3-9
116	Miami (OH)	3-9
117	UNLV	3-9
118	Texas San Antonio	3-9
119	Massachusetts	3-9
120	Hawaii	3-10
121	Wyoming	2-10
122	Army	2-9
123	Charlotte	2-10
124	North Texas	1-11
125	Kansas	0-12
126	Louisiana Monroe	1-11
127	Eastern Michigan	1-11
128	UCF	0-12

2015 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M
Week 3 Ohio State
Week 4 Northwestern
Week 5 Northwestern
Week 6 Florida
Week 7 Iowa
Week 8 Michigan State
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 12, Thursday

New England over Carolina

Happy Thanksgiving a day late from me. After the 3 Thanksgiving games - the traditional Dallas and Detroit games, along with an NFC North showdown between Green Bay and Chicago, Carolina is looking pretty good, but New England maintains a slim edge in strength and overall Superbowl participation and winning chances. Carolina is now at 6 9's of certainty (99.9999%) to make the playoffs, but could still miss them even with 11 wins. The only other time that happened since the 1990 expansion to 12 playoff teams was New England in 2008, when they tied Miami and lost the AFC East title on a tiebreaker, and lost the last wildcard spot to Baltimore, also on a tiebreaker.

As a result of Carolina's win, New Orleans is eliminated from winning the NFC South. No complicated tiebreaker calculations have to be done for that one, since New Orleans can win at most 10 games.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-0	0.718	99.98	100.00	99.25	65.96	40.54	22.92
CAR	11-0	0.713	99.63	100.00	99.81	66.88	39.38	22.25
ARI	8-2	0.681	97.02	99.18	90.69	56.37	29.31	15.50
CIN	8-2	0.653	94.83	99.78	86.24	49.99	24.27	11.95
KC	5-5	0.616	11.74	64.50	38.05	16.30	7.74	3.51
GB	7-4	0.599	51.18	87.16	54.26	22.71	10.06	4.44
PIT	6-4	0.596	5.16	61.69	36.17	14.82	6.71	2.90
DEN	8-2	0.588	87.59	95.93	66.20	30.01	12.57	5.34
SEA	5-5	0.579	2.76	33.34	17.48	6.65	2.88	1.21
ATL	6-4	0.572	0.36	56.37	29.87	11.00	4.67	1.94
MIN	7-3	0.563	48.05	78.85	46.06	17.66	7.15	2.90
NYJ	5-5	0.555	0.02	28.08	14.20	5.08	2.13	0.84
NYG	5-5	0.536	65.51	66.40	31.85	10.95	4.16	1.58
BUF	5-5	0.534	0.00	35.39	17.42	5.89	2.35	0.88
TB	5-5	0.466	0.01	23.47	9.61	2.63	0.87	0.28
OAK	4-6	0.464	0.66	5.72	2.31	0.64	0.22	0.07
HOU	5-5	0.457	38.63	42.30	15.93	4.59	1.44	0.44
BAL	3-7	0.455	0.01	0.62	0.24	0.06	0.02	0.01
IND	5-5	0.453	52.28	53.99	20.19	5.76	1.78	0.54
STL	4-6	0.451	0.22	4.92	1.83	0.48	0.16	0.05
PHI	4-7	0.439	8.77	8.81	3.34	0.88	0.26	0.08
WAS	4-6	0.437	24.34	26.28	9.92	2.58	0.76	0.22
CHI	5-6	0.432	0.62	8.42	3.02	0.73	0.22	0.06
MIA	4-6	0.411	-	1.36	0.46	0.11	0.03	0.01
NO	4-6	0.404	-	3.33	1.12	0.25	0.07	0.02
JAC	4-6	0.392	8.97	10.45	3.29	0.77	0.20	0.05
TEN	2-8	0.389	0.12	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
DET	4-7	0.388	0.14	2.06	0.67	0.14	0.04	0.01
DAL	3-8	0.378	1.37	1.38	0.45	0.10	0.02	0.01
SD	2-8	0.376	0.01	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
CLE	2-8	0.333	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	3-7	0.277	0.00	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]

eBay Wins #198

I'm back with more eBay penny cards; this time it's a full nickel's worth from 1982 Topps.

1982 Topps
#187 Jeff Newman
#259 Rodney Scott
#359 Jim Dwyer
#592 Craig Swan
#612 Gary Ward

Of these 5, only Jim Dwyer played for the Cardinals, in two stints from 1973 to mid-1975 and late 1977 to mid-1978, and he played for Montreal and New York in between. Despite those early-career moves, he lasted 18 seasons through 1990.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3387
Total Spent	$52.35
Per Card	1.546 cents
Change	0 cents

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 11, Final

New England over Carolina

New England won as expected on Monday night, and is still favored to win the Superbowl over Carolina. They are note quite 100% into the playoffs, but they are over 99.995%, which rounds up to 100.00 the way I have it displayed. It's actually over 99.999% when I look at the raw numbers. When they really clinch, you'll see a "+" in that field. They did eliminate Miami from winning the AFC East. That seemed unlikely to me, so I double checked the tiebreakers.

If Miami and New England finish in a 2-way tie at the top of the division, they'll both be 1-1 in the first tiebreaker, head to head. The second tiebreaker is divisional record, and New England would only fall to 4-2 by losing out, while Miami can only reach 2-4 by winning out, thus losing the tiebreaker.

So what if Miami, New England, and Buffalo all finish 10-6? Buffalo has already beat Miami twice, and New England has already beaten Buffalo twice. That clinches the head to head tiebreaker for New England, who is 3-1 to Buffalo's 2-2 and Miami's 1-3.

How about Miami, New England, and New York at 10-6? Head to Head, all three teams would be 2-2, and the next tiebreaker is divisional record. Since New England can be at worst 4-2, Miami can only reach 2-4, and New York would be either 3-3 or 2-4 depending on their result against Buffalo, New England has clinched that scenario as well.

In the case all 4 teams tie at 10-6, head to head and divisional record are the same thing. Either New England will win it at 4-2, or New York and Miami will be eliminated by that tiebreaker, and New England and Buffalo will revert to the two-team tiebreaker, which, as I said, will go to New England having beaten Buffalo twice.

So, I'm satisfied Miami cannot win the AFC East. I believe Buffalo or New York are going to need to win 11 games to have any shot at winning the division over New England, though I haven't quite worked all the possible ways they can all 3 finish 10-6 to prove it yet.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-0	0.718	99.98	100.00	99.20	65.90	40.50	23.60
CAR	10-0	0.683	98.91	99.99	99.24	62.99	35.00	18.59
ARI	8-2	0.681	96.78	98.95	87.91	54.09	29.63	15.67
CIN	8-2	0.653	94.84	99.79	86.28	49.98	24.27	12.37
KC	5-5	0.616	11.73	65.04	38.38	16.45	7.81	3.68
GB	7-3	0.603	64.80	94.26	62.82	27.74	12.91	5.75
PIT	6-4	0.596	5.16	62.38	36.59	15.00	6.78	3.05
DEN	8-2	0.588	87.59	96.08	66.33	30.06	12.59	5.56
SEA	5-5	0.579	2.95	31.65	16.03	6.46	2.87	1.21
ATL	6-4	0.572	1.05	58.30	30.46	11.94	5.19	2.15
MIN	7-3	0.563	34.98	77.13	44.16	17.41	7.36	2.99
NYJ	5-5	0.555	0.02	27.88	14.08	5.04	2.11	0.86
NYG	5-5	0.536	56.89	58.15	27.59	9.99	3.91	1.49
BUF	5-5	0.534	0.00	33.64	16.51	5.58	2.23	0.87
PHI	4-6	0.500	20.77	21.24	9.23	3.05	1.10	0.38
TB	5-5	0.466	0.04	23.76	9.40	2.76	0.93	0.30
OAK	4-6	0.464	0.67	5.90	2.38	0.66	0.22	0.07
HOU	5-5	0.457	38.62	42.41	15.95	4.60	1.44	0.46
BAL	3-7	0.455	0.01	0.64	0.25	0.07	0.02	0.01
IND	5-5	0.453	52.28	54.10	20.20	5.76	1.78	0.56
STL	4-6	0.451	0.27	5.20	1.85	0.52	0.17	0.05
WAS	4-6	0.437	19.69	21.26	7.92	2.19	0.67	0.20
CHI	4-6	0.427	0.20	3.40	1.17	0.30	0.09	0.03
DAL	3-7	0.417	2.65	2.68	0.95	0.25	0.07	0.02
MIA	4-6	0.411	-	1.44	0.49	0.12	0.03	0.01
NO	4-6	0.404	0.00	3.62	1.17	0.28	0.08	0.02
JAC	4-6	0.392	8.97	10.52	3.30	0.77	0.20	0.05
TEN	2-8	0.389	0.12	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
SD	2-8	0.376	0.01	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
DET	3-7	0.335	0.01	0.37	0.10	0.02	0.00	0.00
CLE	2-8	0.333	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	3-7	0.277	0.00	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 11, Sunday

New England over Carolina

Carolina solidified their position at the top of the NFC, and Cincinnati lost more ground to New England, who plays Monday night, so the projection stays the same. By virtue of being scheduled on Monday instead of Sunday, New England does not join Carolina in tying to be the first team to reach a 99.99% chance at the playoffs. They almost certainly will reach that with a win, but it'll be one day too late. There have still been no eliminations, and any team could win their division.

The Rams are just terrible, much as it pains me to admit that to myself. At this point I'm going to have to start rooting for a whole lot of AFC-NFC matchups to go the AFC team's way to weaken the field enough to give them a shot at a wildcard spot. Like I said before, the division wouldn't be impossible, but it'll take a collapse by Arizona to get there.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-0	0.698	99.33	99.97	97.97	62.76	37.22	20.84
CAR	10-0	0.683	98.91	99.99	99.24	63.00	35.00	19.05
ARI	8-2	0.681	96.78	98.95	87.91	54.09	29.63	16.06
CIN	8-2	0.653	94.84	99.75	86.61	50.22	25.40	12.95
KC	5-5	0.616	11.41	62.08	36.43	16.17	7.83	3.69
GB	7-3	0.603	64.80	94.26	62.81	27.73	12.91	5.92
PIT	6-4	0.596	5.15	59.23	34.51	14.68	6.77	3.04
DEN	8-2	0.588	87.94	95.69	66.74	30.55	13.33	5.89
SEA	5-5	0.579	2.95	31.65	16.03	6.46	2.87	1.25
ATL	6-4	0.572	1.05	58.31	30.46	11.94	5.19	2.22
MIN	7-3	0.563	34.98	77.13	44.15	17.40	7.36	3.08
NYJ	5-5	0.555	0.13	25.55	12.86	4.85	2.06	0.84
BUF	5-4	0.546	0.54	44.49	22.94	8.50	3.50	1.40
NYG	5-5	0.536	56.92	58.19	27.60	9.99	3.91	1.53
PHI	4-6	0.500	20.96	21.44	9.31	3.08	1.11	0.40
TB	5-5	0.466	0.04	23.76	9.40	2.76	0.93	0.31
OAK	4-6	0.464	0.65	5.11	2.05	0.60	0.21	0.07
HOU	5-5	0.457	38.73	42.09	15.87	4.75	1.53	0.49
BAL	3-7	0.455	0.01	0.54	0.20	0.06	0.02	0.01
IND	5-5	0.453	52.20	53.76	20.10	5.95	1.88	0.60
STL	4-6	0.451	0.27	5.20	1.85	0.52	0.17	0.05
WAS	4-6	0.437	19.52	21.06	7.85	2.17	0.66	0.20
CHI	4-6	0.427	0.20	3.40	1.17	0.30	0.09	0.03
DAL	3-7	0.417	2.60	2.63	0.93	0.24	0.07	0.02
MIA	4-6	0.411	0.00	1.28	0.43	0.11	0.03	0.01
NO	4-6	0.404	0.00	3.62	1.17	0.28	0.08	0.02
JAC	4-6	0.392	8.94	10.28	3.24	0.79	0.21	0.06
TEN	2-8	0.389	0.13	0.14	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
SD	2-8	0.376	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
DET	3-7	0.334	0.01	0.37	0.10	0.02	0.00	0.00
CLE	2-8	0.333	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	3-7	0.277	0.00	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

I picked a bad weekend to go out of town. I didn't get to watch any games, and I didn't really even look up any scores other than Mizzou. I was surprised to see Alabama advance in my rankings despite only beating an FCS team, then I noticed that only Clemson and Iowa remained undefeated.

Ohio State lost to Michigan State, who has to feel pretty bad about that loss to Nebraska now. Oklahoma State lost to Baylor, another team with only 1 loss. Houston lost a game they probably should have won, against 5-5 Connecticut, who is now 6-5 and bowl eligible for the first time since 2010, so they had something to play for. I suspect the playoff 4 will be among my top 5, with Notre Dame edging out Michigan State in the real rankings.

Last week we had 2 0-10 teams, and now there are two at 0-11. Kansas lost, as did UCF, who somehow has one of the two Thursday games this week, so they'll likely finish off their Thanksgiving by finishing off their season 0-12

Missouri lost again. I didn't really see the game, but my understanding was it was a pretty uninspired performance. Gary Pinkel's retirement might get them an invitation to a bowl game at 5-7, but a win next week over Arkansas would be the more direct path

What if LSU had won their canceled week 1 game?
LSU has now lost 3 games in a row, making this question even less interesting! They'd move from #35 to #22 with that win, partially because their opponent in the canceled game, McNeese State, is actually now 10-0, and would give them a sizable strength of schedule boost compared to the average FCS cupcake.

1	Clemson	11-0
2	Iowa	11-0
3	Alabama	10-1
4	Michigan State	10-1
5	Notre Dame	10-1
6	Oklahoma	10-1
7	Ohio State	10-1
8	Florida	10-1
9	North Carolina	10-1
10	Oklahoma State	10-1
11	Northwestern	9-2
12	Navy	9-1
13	Stanford	9-2
14	Houston	10-1
15	Michigan	9-2
16	Florida State	9-2
17	Baylor	9-1
18	TCU	9-2
19	Oregon	8-3
20	Toledo	9-1
21	Ole Miss	8-3
22	Mississippi State	8-3
23	Utah	8-3
24	Texas A&M	8-3
25	Temple	9-2
26	Pittsburgh	8-3
27	UCLA	8-3
28	Washington State	8-3
29	Western Kentucky	9-2
30	Georgia	8-3
31	Memphis	8-3
32	BYU	8-3
33	Marshall	9-2
34	Bowling Green	8-3
35	LSU	7-3
36	Wisconsin	8-3
37	USC	7-4
38	Tennessee	7-4
39	San Diego State	8-3
40	Air Force	8-3
41	Miami (FL)	7-4
42	Louisiana Tech	8-3
43	Appalachian State	8-2
44	Penn State	7-4
45	Northern Illinois	8-3
46	Arkansas	6-5
47	South Florida	7-4
48	California	6-5
49	Southern Mississippi	8-3
50	Georgia Southern	7-3
51	Auburn	6-5
52	NC State	7-4
53	Arizona State	6-5
54	Arkansas State	7-3
55	West Virginia	6-4
56	Texas Tech	6-5
57	Ohio	7-4
58	Louisville	6-5
59	Boise State	7-4
60	Arizona	6-6
61	Cincinnati	6-5
62	Central Michigan	6-5
63	Utah State	6-5
64	Duke	6-5
65	Western Michigan	6-5
66	Connecticut	6-5
67	Minnesota	5-6
68	Middle Tennessee	6-5
69	Illinois	5-6
70	Nebraska	5-6
71	Missouri	5-6
72	Washington	5-6
73	Indiana	5-6
74	Akron	6-5
75	Colorado State	6-5
76	East Carolina	5-6
77	Virginia Tech	5-6
78	Kentucky	5-6
79	Nevada	6-5
80	New Mexico	6-5
81	Virginia	4-7
82	Tulsa	5-6
83	San Jose State	5-6
84	Kansas State	4-6
85	South Alabama	5-5
86	Buffalo	5-6
87	Texas	4-6
88	Vanderbilt	4-7
89	Old Dominion	5-6
90	Rutgers	4-7
91	Florida Intl	5-7
92	Georgia Tech	3-8
93	Iowa State	3-8
94	Colorado	4-8
95	Georgia State	4-6
96	South Carolina	3-8
97	Louisiana Lafayette	4-6
98	UTEP	4-7
99	Syracuse	3-8
100	Maryland	2-9
101	Wake Forest	3-8
102	Troy	3-7
103	Boston College	3-8
104	Rice	4-7
105	Texas State	3-7
106	Fresno State	3-8
107	Purdue	2-9
108	Ball State	3-8
109	UNLV	3-8
110	New Mexico State	3-7
110	Idaho	3-8
112	Kent State	3-8
113	Oregon State	2-9
114	Tulane	3-8
115	SMU	2-9
116	Texas San Antonio	3-8
117	Miami (OH)	3-9
118	Florida Atlantic	2-9
119	Massachusetts	2-9
120	Hawaii	2-10
121	Charlotte	2-9
122	Army	2-9
123	North Texas	1-10
124	Wyoming	1-10
125	Kansas	0-11
126	Louisiana Monroe	1-10
127	Eastern Michigan	1-10
128	UCF	0-11

2015 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M
Week 3 Ohio State
Week 4 Northwestern
Week 5 Northwestern
Week 6 Florida
Week 7 Iowa
Week 8 Michigan State
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 11, Thursday

New England over Carolina

Once again, two bottom-tier teams played on Thursday, so nothing really changes at the top. More interesting is the bottom, where Jacksonville still had a 9.5% chance at the division before the game, but upset Tennessee and now are up to 15.6%. It's a low-performing division, of course, with 2-8 Tennessee not eliminated yet and we're quite likely to see a 7-9 team win it.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-0	0.698	98.77	99.96	98.12	64.20	37.83	22.00
ARI	7-2	0.676	93.97	97.10	82.31	49.62	28.52	15.26
CIN	8-1	0.662	96.50	99.85	92.37	56.17	28.98	15.67
CAR	9-0	0.644	94.19	99.94	96.40	55.97	29.22	14.60
MIN	7-2	0.601	67.68	90.44	64.23	30.17	14.59	6.64
PIT	6-4	0.596	3.50	60.21	35.93	15.07	6.96	3.28
DEN	7-2	0.582	86.40	91.85	59.02	25.75	11.20	5.11
ATL	6-3	0.577	5.77	76.76	41.43	18.05	8.18	3.52
GB	6-3	0.570	31.80	81.07	46.95	20.09	9.02	3.82
NYJ	5-4	0.568	0.67	47.72	26.84	10.41	4.51	2.00
PHI	4-5	0.559	34.50	37.40	18.46	7.70	3.32	1.37
KC	4-5	0.558	9.04	36.40	18.93	7.17	3.04	1.31
BUF	5-4	0.546	0.55	43.21	23.14	8.46	3.48	1.47
SEA	4-5	0.544	3.42	17.66	8.29	3.38	1.44	0.57
NYG	5-5	0.536	37.87	40.87	19.24	7.54	3.08	1.20
WAS	4-5	0.492	26.99	30.49	12.96	4.56	1.67	0.59
OAK	4-5	0.475	4.31	13.49	5.70	1.72	0.60	0.21
STL	4-5	0.459	2.57	9.69	3.57	1.18	0.41	0.13
BAL	2-7	0.451	0.00	0.30	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00
IND	4-5	0.447	49.65	50.37	19.25	5.49	1.72	0.57
HOU	4-5	0.443	34.33	35.45	13.38	3.77	1.17	0.38
CHI	4-5	0.433	0.52	6.33	2.20	0.65	0.21	0.06
MIA	4-5	0.432	0.00	3.84	1.49	0.40	0.12	0.04
SD	2-7	0.429	0.25	0.50	0.19	0.05	0.02	0.00
TB	4-5	0.412	0.04	7.76	2.57	0.72	0.22	0.06
NO	4-6	0.404	0.01	3.40	1.07	0.29	0.09	0.02
DAL	2-7	0.398	0.64	0.67	0.22	0.06	0.02	0.00
JAC	4-6	0.392	15.56	16.36	5.37	1.29	0.35	0.10
TEN	2-8	0.389	0.46	0.47	0.15	0.04	0.01	0.00
DET	2-7	0.335	0.00	0.18	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
CLE	2-8	0.332	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	3-6	0.304	0.04	0.25	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]

Me Too!

I've seen lots of 2015 Update boxes with the Chrome cards on your blogs, and had to get one myself. Let's see how I did. As usual I like to show off the Cardinals and inserts, lest I spend a ton of time scanning 9 cards at a time.

2015 Topps Update
#US106 Shelby Miller
#US214 Yadier Molina
#US338 Pete Kozma
#US373 Mitch Harris
#US393 Dan Haren
Pride and Perseverence #PP-8 Jon Lester
Rarities #R-3 Daniel Nava
Rookie Sensations #RS-6 Nomar Garciaparra
Rookie Sensations #RS-20 Tom Seaver

Shelby Miller's got an ugly hat, and Yadi's got a ridiculous gold chest protector, but I like All-Star game cards. It's not Topps' fault the game has started to look a bit silly.

Pride and Perseverance is a good idea for a set, featuring players with unique challenges, mostly medically related from the checklist. I think it might have been better if it didn't just look like a brown parallel, though. The other insert card of note in the first bunch is the Nomar Garciaparra, one of the very few players I collect that hasn't played for the Cardinals.

2015 Topps Update
Highlight of the Year #H-76 Hank Aaron
Tape Measure Blasts #TMB-11 Mark McGwire

Here are two more retired players feature on inserts. I guess it's a nice easy way to please everyone, having insert sets featuring not only the biggest stars of today, but all time. The McGwire card features a specific long home run he hit just a few months before being traded to St. Louis in 1997, and breaking the single-season record in 1998.

2015 Topps Update - Chrome
#US237 Craig Kimbrel
#US238 A.J. Cole
#US309 Howie Kendrick
#US308 Joey Butler
#US319 Will Harris
#US392 Odrisamer Despaigne
#US398 J.T. Realmuto
2015 Topps Update - Rookie Sensations Chrome #RSC-2 Ichiro Suzuki

Here's the big draw for these boxes, the Chrome parallels. There were 8 and they scanned nicely this way, so apologies to Joey Butler's card for being sideways. I didn't get any Cardinals in the Chrome packs, but I did get an Ichiro insert. The exclusive nature of these means I might be tempted to grab another box or two, and then try to trade for or buy the rest secondhand.

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 10, Final

New England over Carolina

Two interesting things happened last night. First, Cincinnati lost to Houston, a game I said they should have easily won. Still, they didn't lose much ground, because they're still 2.5 games ahead of Pittsburgh in the division, and still the stronger team.

The second interesting thing is that New England's chances of winning the conference actually went down just slightly. It would seem it should have gone up, right? As I said before, Cincinnati is still just about as likely to make the playoffs, because 8-1 really isn't that far behind 9-0 (and I don't take home field advantage into account in my simulations). However, Cincinnati's strength went up slightly, due to their strength only being regressed 7/16 of the way back to .500 versus the previous 8/16, since they've now played 9 games. This is at least the 3rd time this year I've felt the need to mention that little quirk of my system. The strength would have gone much higher with a big win, but the close loss still gave them slight boost, and that means that New England doesn't win as many of the simulations against Cincinnati.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-0	0.698	98.75	99.96	98.09	64.16	37.80	21.98
ARI	7-2	0.676	93.97	97.10	82.32	49.63	28.53	15.26
CIN	8-1	0.662	96.50	99.85	92.38	56.15	28.97	15.66
CAR	9-0	0.644	94.17	99.94	96.39	55.96	29.22	14.60
MIN	7-2	0.602	67.68	90.43	64.22	30.16	14.59	6.64
PIT	6-4	0.596	3.49	60.43	36.02	15.10	6.98	3.29
DEN	7-2	0.582	86.45	91.90	59.04	25.76	11.20	5.11
ATL	6-3	0.577	5.79	76.89	41.51	18.08	8.20	3.53
GB	6-3	0.570	31.80	81.07	46.95	20.09	9.02	3.82
NYJ	5-4	0.568	0.68	47.39	26.59	10.31	4.47	1.98
PHI	4-5	0.559	34.50	37.39	18.45	7.69	3.32	1.37
KC	4-5	0.558	9.04	36.54	18.98	7.19	3.04	1.32
BUF	5-4	0.546	0.57	43.58	23.29	8.52	3.51	1.48
SEA	4-5	0.544	3.42	17.64	8.28	3.38	1.44	0.57
NYG	5-5	0.536	37.87	40.87	19.23	7.54	3.08	1.20
WAS	4-5	0.492	26.99	30.48	12.95	4.56	1.67	0.59
OAK	4-5	0.475	4.26	13.39	5.65	1.70	0.59	0.21
STL	4-5	0.459	2.57	9.66	3.56	1.18	0.41	0.13
BAL	2-7	0.451	0.00	0.31	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00
IND	4-5	0.447	51.81	52.49	20.04	5.71	1.79	0.59
HOU	4-5	0.443	35.79	36.87	13.90	3.91	1.21	0.40
CHI	4-5	0.433	0.52	6.32	2.19	0.65	0.21	0.06
MIA	4-5	0.432	0.00	3.91	1.51	0.40	0.13	0.04
SD	2-7	0.429	0.25	0.51	0.19	0.05	0.02	0.00
TB	4-5	0.412	0.04	7.71	2.55	0.71	0.22	0.06
TEN	2-7	0.404	2.90	2.94	0.99	0.25	0.07	0.02
NO	4-6	0.404	0.01	3.39	1.07	0.29	0.09	0.02
DAL	2-7	0.397	0.64	0.67	0.22	0.06	0.02	0.00
JAC	3-6	0.387	9.50	9.93	3.21	0.76	0.20	0.06
DET	2-7	0.335	0.00	0.17	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
CLE	2-8	0.332	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	3-6	0.304	0.04	0.25	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 10, Sunday

New England over Carolina

At 9-0, both New England and Carolina are leading their respective conferences, but both are still just shy of clinching a playoff berth. 10-0 might do it for them, or at least push them to the 99.99% threshold.

St. Louis has shown me the error of my ways in having hope, cutting their playoff odds drastically for two consecutive weeks. They're now below 10%, and there aren't that many weeks left to gain back some ground.

Tonight, Cleveland could become the first team eliminated from a division (but not a wildcard spot), if Cincinnati manages a win to go 9-0. They should handle Houston easily, but anything can happen.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-0	0.699	98.76	99.96	97.64	63.88	37.89	22.04
ARI	7-2	0.677	94.01	97.13	82.40	49.70	28.57	15.35
CIN	8-0	0.654	97.55	99.94	95.01	57.33	29.06	15.46
CAR	9-0	0.644	94.17	99.94	96.39	55.98	29.22	14.67
MIN	7-2	0.602	67.69	90.44	64.20	30.14	14.58	6.67
PIT	6-4	0.596	2.44	60.92	36.36	15.34	7.10	3.34
DEN	7-2	0.582	86.53	91.98	56.73	24.38	10.76	4.91
ATL	6-3	0.577	5.78	76.71	41.41	18.03	8.17	3.54
GB	6-3	0.570	31.80	81.12	46.96	20.09	9.02	3.84
NYJ	5-4	0.568	0.67	47.48	26.75	10.48	4.55	2.01
PHI	4-5	0.559	34.51	37.40	18.45	7.69	3.32	1.38
KC	4-5	0.558	8.99	36.54	19.05	7.27	3.09	1.33
BUF	5-4	0.546	0.56	43.73	23.47	8.69	3.58	1.51
SEA	4-5	0.545	3.38	17.63	8.28	3.37	1.44	0.58
NYG	5-5	0.536	37.87	40.85	19.22	7.53	3.07	1.21
WAS	4-5	0.492	26.98	30.46	12.94	4.55	1.67	0.59
OAK	4-5	0.475	4.23	13.48	5.71	1.73	0.60	0.21
STL	4-5	0.459	2.57	9.82	3.62	1.19	0.41	0.13
BAL	2-7	0.451	0.00	0.33	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00
IND	4-5	0.447	58.79	59.17	22.54	6.44	2.03	0.67
HOU	3-5	0.439	25.49	25.98	9.67	2.71	0.84	0.27
CHI	4-5	0.433	0.52	6.34	2.20	0.65	0.21	0.06
MIA	4-5	0.432	0.00	3.85	1.50	0.41	0.13	0.04
SD	2-7	0.429	0.25	0.51	0.19	0.05	0.02	0.00
TB	4-5	0.412	0.03	7.69	2.55	0.71	0.22	0.06
TEN	2-7	0.404	3.77	3.81	1.29	0.32	0.09	0.03
NO	4-6	0.404	0.01	3.36	1.06	0.29	0.09	0.02
DAL	2-7	0.397	0.64	0.67	0.22	0.06	0.02	0.00
JAC	3-6	0.387	11.95	12.31	3.97	0.94	0.25	0.07
DET	2-7	0.335	0.00	0.17	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
CLE	2-8	0.332	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	3-6	0.304	0.04	0.25	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 11

My top 5 teams all won and all held their positions, so my 4 playoff teams are all 10-0. Houston is also 10-0, and rose from #11 to #6.

Way down at the bottom of the rankings, you'll see two teams at 0-10. I never would have thought I'd see Kansas fall to that level in my lifetime, but there they are, with a real chance to go 0-12, though Kansas State isn't any better than Kansas in conference games. On the plus side for Kansas, 10th place in the Big 12 sounds better than it is. UCF is also 0-10, but their 2 remaining opponents have decent conference records, so if I had to pick one to go 0-12 it would be UCF.

Missouri won the game that almost didn't happen against BYU, and now have 2 games left to try to get bowl-eligible. It's not impossible, as both Tennessee and Arkansas are 6-4, but Arkansas just took down LSU. Speaking of LSU...

What if LSU had won their canceled week 1 game?
LSU has now lost 2 games in a row, making this question much less interesting. The most important move would be for Alabama, up from #5 to #3 and into playoff position. LSU themselves would still be down at #13, up from their #25 rank.

1	Clemson	10-0
2	Iowa	10-0
3	Ohio State	10-0
4	Oklahoma State	10-0
5	Alabama	9-1
6	Houston	10-0
7	Notre Dame	9-1
8	Florida	9-1
9	Michigan State	9-1
10	North Carolina	9-1
11	Oklahoma	9-1
12	TCU	9-1
13	Northwestern	8-2
14	Navy	8-1
15	Utah	8-2
16	Stanford	8-2
17	Memphis	8-2
18	Michigan	8-2
19	Florida State	8-2
20	Baylor	8-1
21	Bowling Green	8-2
22	Toledo	8-1
23	Marshall	9-2
24	Wisconsin	8-2
25	LSU	7-2
26	USC	7-3
27	Oregon	7-3
28	Ole Miss	7-3
29	Texas A&M	7-3
30	Mississippi State	7-3
31	Temple	8-2
32	Pittsburgh	7-3
33	Western Kentucky	8-2
34	Washington State	7-3
35	Appalachian State	8-2
36	Penn State	7-3
37	Georgia	7-3
38	UCLA	7-3
39	BYU	7-3
40	Arkansas	6-4
41	Georgia Southern	7-2
42	California	6-4
43	Tennessee	6-4
44	San Diego State	7-3
45	Miami (FL)	6-4
46	Arkansas State	7-3
47	Louisiana Tech	7-3
48	Air Force	7-3
49	Texas Tech	6-5
50	Northern Illinois	7-3
51	Louisville	6-4
52	Boise State	7-3
53	Arizona	6-5
54	Duke	6-4
55	Cincinnati	6-4
56	NC State	6-4
57	Southern Mississippi	7-3
58	West Virginia	5-4
59	South Florida	6-4
60	Western Michigan	6-4
61	Auburn	5-5
62	Ohio	6-4
63	Illinois	5-5
64	Arizona State	5-5
65	Missouri	5-5
66	Nebraska	5-6
67	Central Michigan	5-5
68	Nevada	6-4
69	Virginia Tech	5-5
70	New Mexico	6-4
71	Utah State	5-5
72	Middle Tennessee	5-5
73	South Alabama	5-4
74	Connecticut	5-5
75	Tulsa	5-5
76	Minnesota	4-6
77	Buffalo	5-5
78	Washington	4-6
79	Indiana	4-6
80	East Carolina	4-6
81	Akron	5-5
82	Texas	4-6
83	Old Dominion	5-5
84	Kentucky	4-6
85	Vanderbilt	4-6
86	Colorado State	5-5
87	Iowa State	3-7
88	Florida Intl	5-6
89	San Jose State	4-6
90	Kansas State	3-6
91	Virginia	3-7
92	Georgia Tech	3-7
93	Colorado	4-7
94	Louisiana Lafayette	4-5
95	Rutgers	3-7
96	South Carolina	3-7
97	Maryland	2-8
98	Rice	4-6
99	UTEP	4-6
100	Syracuse	3-7
101	Troy	3-7
102	Wake Forest	3-7
103	Boston College	3-7
104	Tulane	3-7
105	Fresno State	3-7
106	Idaho	3-7
107	Ball State	3-7
108	Purdue	2-8
109	Kent State	3-7
110	UNLV	3-7
111	Oregon State	2-8
112	Georgia State	3-6
113	Texas State	2-7
114	New Mexico State	2-7
115	Massachusetts	2-8
116	Florida Atlantic	2-8
117	SMU	1-9
118	Hawaii	2-9
119	Texas San Antonio	2-8
120	Army	2-8
121	Miami (OH)	2-9
122	Charlotte	2-8
123	North Texas	1-9
124	Louisiana Monroe	1-9
125	Kansas	0-10
126	Wyoming	1-10
127	UCF	0-10
128	Eastern Michigan	1-10

2015 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M
Week 3 Ohio State
Week 4 Northwestern
Week 5 Northwestern
Week 6 Florida
Week 7 Iowa
Week 8 Michigan State
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson