Tenets of Wilson

2020-12-15

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 14, Final

Kansas City over New Orleans

Monday's game did not have huge implications, except to bring Pittsburgh closer to the brink of clinching the AFC North. Cleveland had a reasonable chance of catching them, and still could, but they now sit 2 games behind with 3 to play. Baltimore was already eliminated from the division, now at 3 games back plus a tiebreaker, but has a very good chance at a wildcard spot.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	12-1	0.704	++	++	94.64	56.54	31.39	17.80
PIT	11-2	0.716	99.24	++	67.77	42.39	23.53	13.68
NO	10-3	0.689	98.84	++	74.45	43.65	24.71	12.82
GB	10-3	0.642	++	++	78.64	42.10	20.77	9.71
LAR	9-4	0.663	62.82	99.88	62.70	33.59	17.74	8.70
TB	8-5	0.637	1.16	95.55	52.17	25.48	12.74	5.89
BAL	8-5	0.667	-	80.19	43.63	21.39	10.88	5.71
SEA	9-4	0.617	35.79	99.13	53.50	25.27	11.95	5.27
MIA	8-5	0.673	3.45	61.22	33.70	16.60	8.59	4.57
IND	9-4	0.629	35.24	79.27	40.26	18.19	8.41	4.07
TEN	9-4	0.591	64.76	92.87	44.23	18.30	7.59	3.37
BUF	10-3	0.569	96.55	99.25	46.63	18.19	7.07	2.99
ARI	7-6	0.602	1.39	62.76	29.23	13.13	6.06	2.58
WAS	6-7	0.527	74.61	74.86	29.26	10.87	4.13	1.46
CLE	9-4	0.465	0.76	76.79	26.07	7.57	2.29	0.75
CHI	6-7	0.480	-	20.45	6.66	2.15	0.76	0.24
MIN	6-7	0.460	-	16.14	4.93	1.54	0.51	0.15
NYG	5-8	0.379	17.02	17.10	4.47	1.09	0.28	0.06
LV	7-6	0.432	-	9.17	2.70	0.71	0.21	0.06
SF	5-8	0.478	-	5.07	1.58	0.51	0.18	0.06
PHI	4-8-1	0.397	7.76	7.81	2.14	0.55	0.15	0.04
NE	6-7	0.496	-	1.24	0.38	0.11	0.04	0.01
DET	5-8	0.364	-	0.54	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00
DAL	4-9	0.328	0.62	0.67	0.15	0.03	0.01	0.00
CAR	4-9	0.452	-	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
DEN	5-8	0.325	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ATL	4-9	0.511	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-9	0.381	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	4-9	0.381	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	2-10-1	0.313	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-12	0.286	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	0-13	0.165	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans

2020-12-14

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 14, Sunday

Kansas City over New Orleans

The playoff picture is starting to come together now. On Sunday, Pittsburgh and Green Bay clinched playoff spots, Kansas City and Green Bay grabbed division championships, and 2 more teams were eliminated, including the first NFC team, Atlanta. Seattle and Buffalo both crossed the 99% threshold for playoff chances to join the Rams, while Denver, Carolina, Dallas, and Detroit are all sitting below 1%. Also, with their second straight loss, Pittsburgh falls out of the AFC lead, and Kansas City takes back over as the overall favorite as well.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	12-1	0.704	++	++	94.49	56.50	31.54	17.89
PIT	11-2	0.716	97.17	++	67.16	42.30	23.56	13.70
NO	10-3	0.688	98.84	++	74.44	43.64	24.70	12.85
GB	10-3	0.642	++	++	78.63	42.09	20.77	9.74
LAR	9-4	0.663	62.82	99.88	62.69	33.59	17.74	8.73
TB	8-5	0.637	1.16	95.54	52.15	25.47	12.74	5.91
SEA	9-4	0.617	35.79	99.13	53.49	25.27	11.95	5.29
MIA	8-5	0.673	3.45	65.25	35.95	17.81	9.30	4.95
BAL	7-5	0.667	-	62.65	33.73	16.47	8.46	4.45
IND	9-4	0.629	35.24	81.76	42.12	19.21	8.90	4.31
TEN	9-4	0.591	64.76	94.17	45.58	19.03	7.90	3.51
BUF	10-3	0.569	96.55	99.48	47.26	18.64	7.26	3.07
ARI	7-6	0.601	1.39	62.75	29.23	13.13	6.06	2.59
WAS	6-7	0.526	74.76	75.01	29.33	10.90	4.14	1.47
CLE	9-3	0.473	2.83	84.32	30.03	9.05	2.76	0.92
CHI	6-7	0.480	-	20.45	6.67	2.15	0.76	0.24
MIN	6-7	0.460	-	16.16	4.94	1.55	0.52	0.15
LV	7-6	0.432	-	10.59	3.12	0.82	0.25	0.07
NYG	5-8	0.379	16.83	16.92	4.42	1.08	0.27	0.06
SF	5-8	0.478	-	5.08	1.58	0.51	0.18	0.06
PHI	4-8-1	0.397	7.79	7.84	2.15	0.56	0.15	0.04
NE	6-7	0.496	-	1.78	0.55	0.16	0.06	0.02
DET	5-8	0.364	-	0.54	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00
DAL	4-9	0.329	0.62	0.67	0.15	0.03	0.01	0.00
CAR	4-9	0.452	-	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
DEN	5-8	0.326	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ATL	4-9	0.511	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-9	0.382	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	4-9	0.381	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	2-10-1	0.313	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-12	0.286	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	0-13	0.165	-	-	-	-	-	-

2020-12-13

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 15

#1 Coastal Carolina won again and finished their regular season 11-0 They'll play for the Sun Belt championship this week against #5 Louisiana. A win there would likely keep them above #2 Alabama, playing #13 Florida for the SEC title. As of right now, I'd love to see them and #3 BYU in the playoff, but I don't think there's any chance of that.

#49 Missouri lost to a very good team in #17 Georgia, so only lost 4 spots. They'll have to win next week against #99 Mississippi State or lose quite a few more.

#127 Vanderbilt lost again and dug their hole a little deeper. Not to get too into the dumb details of my algorithm, but the raw scores for #126 Bowling Green and Vanderbilt are in the -400 to -600 range. Through strength of schedule changes - since they didn't play - Bowling Green's raw score went up by 1 point this week. Vanderbilt's fell by about 70.

1	Coastal Carolina	11-0
2	Alabama	10-0
3	BYU	10-1
4	Notre Dame	10-0
5	Louisiana	9-1
6	Clemson	9-1
7	Miami	8-2
8	Iowa State	8-2
9	Cincinnati	8-0
10	NC State	8-3
11	North Carolina	8-3
12	Appalachian State	8-3
13	Florida	8-2
14	Liberty	9-1
15	Oklahoma State	7-3
16	Army	8-2
17	Georgia	7-2
18	Marshall	7-1
19	Texas A&M	7-1
20	SMU	7-3
21	Oklahoma	7-2
22	Memphis	7-3
23	UTSA	7-4
24	Tulsa	6-1
25	Texas	6-3
26	Georgia Southern	7-5
27	San Jose State	6-0
28	TCU	6-4
29	Pittsburgh	6-5
30	UCF	6-3
31	Tulane	6-5
32	Auburn	6-4
33	Boston College	6-5
34	Indiana	6-1
35	UAB	5-3
36	Virginia Tech	5-6
37	Northwestern	6-1
38	Georgia State	5-4
39	Ohio State	5-0
40	Iowa	6-2
40	Nevada	6-2
42	Virginia	5-5
43	Louisiana Tech	5-4
44	Boise State	5-1
45	West Virginia	5-4
46	Troy	5-6
47	Ball State	5-1
48	USC	5-0
49	Missouri	5-4
50	Florida Atlantic	5-3
51	Buffalo	5-0
52	Western Kentucky	5-6
53	Wake Forest	4-4
54	Colorado	4-1
55	Kansas State	4-6
56	Louisville	4-7
57	Arkansas State	4-7
58	Texas Tech	4-6
T-59	Ole Miss	4-4
T-59	LSU	4-5
61	South Alabama	4-7
62	San Diego State	4-4
63	Western Michigan	4-2
64	Toledo	4-2
65	Houston	3-4
66	Kentucky	4-6
67	North Texas	4-5
68	Hawai'i	4-4
69	Florida State	3-6
70	Air Force	3-2
71	Arkansas	3-7
72	Washington	3-1
73	Navy	3-7
74	Stanford	3-2
75	Kent State	3-1
76	Georgia Tech	3-7
77	East Carolina	3-6
78	Middle Tennessee	3-6
79	Tennessee	3-6
80	Oregon	3-2
81	Central Michigan	3-3
82	Miami (OH)	2-1
83	Southern Mississippi	3-7
T-84	UCLA	3-3
T-84	UTEP	3-5
86	Rice	2-3
87	Minnesota	3-3
88	Utah	2-2
89	Fresno State	3-3
90	Penn State	3-5
91	Wisconsin	2-3
92	Maryland	2-3
93	Charlotte	2-4
94	Ohio	2-1
95	Baylor	2-7
96	Rutgers	3-5
97	Texas State	2-10
98	Michigan State	2-5
99	Mississippi State	2-7
100	Eastern Michigan	2-4
101	Purdue	2-4
102	Duke	2-9
103	Michigan	2-4
104	Nebraska	2-5
105	South Carolina	2-8
106	Wyoming	2-4
107	New Mexico	2-5
108	Washington State	1-2
109	Oregon State	2-4
110	Illinois	2-5
111	Arizona State	1-2
112	Colorado State	1-3
113	California	1-3
114	Temple	1-6
115	Syracuse	1-10
116	UMass	0-4
117	Utah State	1-5
118	South Florida	1-8
119	Akron	1-5
120	Florida International	0-5
121	Kansas	0-9
122	Arizona	0-5
123	UNLV	0-6
124	UL Monroe	0-10
125	Northern Illinois	0-6
126	Bowling Green	0-5
127	Vanderbilt	0-9

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU
Week 6 BYU
Week 7 BYU
Week 8 BYU
Week 9 BYU
Week 10 BYU
Week 11 BYU
Week 12 BYU
Week 13 Notre Dame
Week 14 Coastal Carolina

2020-12-11

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 14, Thursday

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

Thursday night's game was one I would have immensely enjoyed between 2003 and 2015, as the Rams sounded defeated New England. I don't really root against the Rams, but I feel mostly neutral towards them, especially now that they have changed their uniforms; it makes them feel like a different team. LA got very close to clinching a playoff spot with their 9th win, and broke New England's 17 year streak of 10+ wins per season. As I mentioned before, this is not a good year to be a mediocre team in the AFC, and New England's playoff chances are down to 2.2%

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	11-1	0.727	98.70	100.00	88.23	56.91	33.65	20.24
NO	10-2	0.690	99.85	++	88.60	55.75	32.56	16.80
KC	11-1	0.695	99.94	++	74.57	44.89	23.50	13.25
LAR	9-4	0.663	71.38	99.87	65.06	36.40	19.48	9.47
GB	9-3	0.630	99.23	99.94	69.68	37.85	18.41	8.31
MIA	8-4	0.687	29.14	81.68	49.42	25.78	13.60	7.54
TB	7-5	0.614	0.15	83.28	45.23	21.09	10.31	4.49
BAL	7-5	0.667	-	60.99	33.10	15.86	8.16	4.34
SEA	8-4	0.554	27.31	97.13	48.64	20.04	8.31	3.13
IND	8-4	0.603	39.57	66.29	33.26	14.03	6.04	2.81
BUF	9-3	0.548	70.67	93.81	42.58	15.99	5.89	2.42
TEN	8-4	0.555	60.41	84.23	38.48	14.62	5.49	2.29
ARI	6-6	0.565	1.30	47.77	21.35	8.79	3.90	1.51
CLE	9-3	0.473	1.30	83.96	30.68	9.13	2.79	0.95
WAS	5-7	0.509	48.06	49.91	20.56	7.50	2.78	0.93
MIN	6-6	0.482	0.61	38.90	13.66	4.57	1.69	0.53
NYG	5-7	0.422	47.52	48.22	16.00	4.63	1.36	0.36
LV	7-5	0.459	0.06	26.79	8.95	2.58	0.80	0.26
SF	5-7	0.494	0.01	16.28	5.81	1.95	0.75	0.24
CHI	5-7	0.419	0.13	9.21	2.69	0.72	0.23	0.06
NE	6-7	0.496	0.19	2.24	0.73	0.21	0.08	0.03
PHI	3-8-1	0.392	3.66	3.69	1.12	0.30	0.08	0.02
DET	5-7	0.376	0.03	3.60	0.93	0.22	0.06	0.01
ATL	4-8	0.517	-	0.66	0.24	0.08	0.04	0.01
CAR	4-8	0.461	-	0.73	0.23	0.07	0.02	0.01
DAL	3-9	0.302	0.77	0.81	0.18	0.04	0.01	0.00
HOU	4-8	0.435	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
DEN	4-8	0.315	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
LAC	3-9	0.378	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	2-9-1	0.357	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-11	0.322	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	0-12	0.210	-	-	-	-	-	-

2020-12-09

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 13, Final

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

We had a post-Monday game for the second week in a row, as Baltimore beat Dallas. Dallas is on the brink but is not quite eliminated from the playoffs yet, even at 3-9. They could even still be a wildcard team. Baltimore is more likely than not to make the playoffs, but it far from clinching, currently at about 60% likely.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	11-1	0.728	98.70	100.00	88.18	56.97	33.72	20.60
NO	10-2	0.690	99.85	++	88.27	56.20	33.72	17.42
KC	11-1	0.695	99.94	++	74.64	45.02	23.60	13.53
GB	9-3	0.631	99.23	99.94	70.73	39.88	19.73	8.91
MIA	8-4	0.687	28.99	79.22	47.92	24.98	13.19	7.44
LAR	8-4	0.619	60.02	98.75	58.98	29.86	14.65	6.44
TB	7-5	0.615	0.15	83.06	46.40	22.13	11.04	4.80
BAL	7-5	0.667	-	59.98	32.62	15.66	8.05	4.37
SEA	8-4	0.554	37.32	97.32	49.19	20.94	8.85	3.33
IND	8-4	0.603	39.57	65.99	33.23	14.04	6.05	2.87
BUF	9-3	0.548	68.94	92.75	42.06	15.79	5.83	2.45
TEN	8-4	0.555	60.42	84.02	38.50	14.64	5.50	2.34
ARI	6-6	0.565	2.56	50.05	23.44	9.85	4.45	1.72
WAS	5-7	0.509	48.06	49.87	20.93	7.88	2.98	1.00
CLE	9-3	0.473	1.30	83.31	30.53	9.10	2.78	0.97
MIN	6-6	0.482	0.61	38.40	14.17	4.83	1.83	0.57
NYG	5-7	0.422	47.51	48.19	16.32	4.90	1.47	0.39
LV	7-5	0.459	0.06	25.84	8.66	2.50	0.78	0.26
SF	5-7	0.494	0.11	16.00	6.01	2.05	0.81	0.26
NE	6-6	0.541	2.07	8.88	3.65	1.30	0.51	0.21
CHI	5-7	0.419	0.13	9.02	2.78	0.75	0.25	0.06
PHI	3-8-1	0.392	3.65	3.69	1.15	0.32	0.09	0.02
DET	5-7	0.376	0.03	3.53	0.97	0.23	0.07	0.02
ATL	4-8	0.517	-	0.65	0.25	0.09	0.04	0.01
CAR	4-8	0.461	-	0.72	0.24	0.07	0.03	0.01
DAL	3-9	0.302	0.77	0.81	0.19	0.04	0.01	0.00
HOU	4-8	0.435	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
DEN	4-8	0.315	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
LAC	3-9	0.378	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	2-9-1	0.357	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-11	0.321	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	0-12	0.209	-	-	-	-	-	-

2020-12-08

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 13, Monday

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

Pittsburgh lost to Washington, but maintained their position on top of the AFC. They still haven't technically clinched a playoff spot, but are favored to make the Super Bowl. In the originally scheduled Monday game, Buffalo won to solidify their chances of playoff spot at about 93.5%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	11-1	0.728	98.60	100.00	88.42	57.82	34.39	21.01
NO	10-2	0.690	99.85	++	88.27	56.19	33.72	17.50
KC	11-1	0.695	99.94	++	75.11	45.77	24.10	13.82
GB	9-3	0.631	99.23	99.93	70.73	39.88	19.73	8.95
MIA	8-4	0.687	28.99	80.03	48.75	25.49	13.57	7.65
LAR	8-4	0.619	60.02	98.77	58.99	29.87	14.65	6.47
TB	7-5	0.614	0.15	83.09	46.43	22.14	11.04	4.83
SEA	8-4	0.554	37.32	97.36	49.24	20.96	8.86	3.36
IND	8-4	0.603	39.57	68.77	35.00	14.81	6.43	3.05
BAL	6-5	0.637	-	49.25	24.93	11.12	5.39	2.75
BUF	9-3	0.548	68.94	93.51	43.15	16.26	6.05	2.54
TEN	8-4	0.555	60.42	85.50	39.71	15.14	5.74	2.45
ARI	6-6	0.565	2.56	50.22	23.52	9.88	4.47	1.74
CLE	9-3	0.473	1.40	85.28	31.58	9.47	2.92	1.02
WAS	5-7	0.509	48.11	49.97	20.97	7.89	2.98	1.01
MIN	6-6	0.482	0.61	38.38	14.16	4.83	1.83	0.58
NYG	5-7	0.422	46.55	47.21	15.98	4.80	1.44	0.38
LV	7-5	0.459	0.06	27.70	9.25	2.67	0.84	0.28
SF	5-7	0.494	0.10	15.63	5.87	2.00	0.79	0.26
NE	6-6	0.541	2.07	9.96	4.09	1.45	0.58	0.24
CHI	5-7	0.419	0.13	9.05	2.79	0.75	0.25	0.07
PHI	3-8-1	0.392	3.42	3.45	1.07	0.30	0.08	0.02
DET	5-7	0.376	0.03	3.53	0.97	0.23	0.07	0.02
ATL	4-8	0.517	-	0.65	0.25	0.09	0.04	0.01
CAR	4-8	0.461	-	0.71	0.24	0.07	0.03	0.01
DAL	3-8	0.328	1.92	2.03	0.52	0.12	0.03	0.01
HOU	4-8	0.435	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
DEN	4-8	0.315	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
LAC	3-9	0.378	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	2-9-1	0.357	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-11	0.321	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	0-12	0.210	-	-	-	-	-	-

2020-12-07

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 13, Sunday

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

We've had our first 2 teams clinch the playoffs, and somewhat interestingly, the undefeated, strongest, Superbowl favorite is not one of them. Of course, they are nearly certain to clinch, but if enough games go the wrong way, Pittsburgh could find themselves on the wrong end of a tiebreaker and out at 11-5. Kansas City, currently 11-1, won't wind up on the wrong side of those tiebreakers, and has clinched a spot, along with New Orleans.

We're up to 4 eliminated teams, and all of them are in the AFC. There are 7 teams in playoff position with 8 wins or more, so the 9+ loss teams are clearly out of range.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	11-0	0.728	99.42	100.00	92.06	60.54	36.11	22.10
NO	10-2	0.690	99.85	++	88.20	56.30	33.85	17.50
KC	11-1	0.695	99.94	++	71.82	43.78	22.82	13.08
GB	9-3	0.631	99.23	99.93	70.64	40.04	19.83	8.96
MIA	8-4	0.687	42.33	81.50	50.63	26.50	14.00	7.90
LAR	8-4	0.619	59.60	98.03	58.98	30.00	14.73	6.48
TB	7-5	0.615	0.15	80.91	45.92	21.94	10.96	4.77
SEA	8-4	0.554	36.63	96.17	49.28	21.05	8.91	3.36
IND	8-4	0.603	39.55	70.95	36.46	15.33	6.63	3.14
BAL	6-5	0.637	-	51.29	25.97	11.54	5.58	2.85
TEN	8-4	0.555	60.44	86.48	40.48	15.39	5.80	2.47
BUF	8-3	0.531	54.69	83.39	36.31	12.97	4.63	1.87
ARI	6-6	0.565	2.49	47.49	22.49	9.48	4.29	1.66
CLE	9-3	0.473	0.58	86.76	32.16	9.60	2.94	1.03
MIN	6-6	0.482	0.61	37.94	14.13	4.84	1.83	0.57
SF	5-6	0.514	1.27	25.49	10.53	3.89	1.58	0.54
WAS	4-7	0.496	27.86	28.95	11.81	4.31	1.58	0.51
NYG	5-7	0.422	61.72	61.90	21.10	6.35	1.91	0.50
LV	7-5	0.459	0.06	28.32	9.43	2.70	0.85	0.29
NE	6-6	0.541	2.98	11.31	4.68	1.65	0.65	0.27
CHI	5-7	0.419	0.13	8.44	2.62	0.71	0.23	0.06
PHI	3-8-1	0.392	5.68	5.70	1.79	0.49	0.14	0.03
DET	5-7	0.376	0.02	3.21	0.89	0.21	0.06	0.01
DAL	3-8	0.328	4.74	4.79	1.23	0.28	0.06	0.01
ATL	4-8	0.517	-	0.50	0.19	0.07	0.03	0.01
CAR	4-8	0.461	-	0.56	0.19	0.06	0.02	0.01
HOU	4-8	0.435	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
DEN	4-8	0.315	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
LAC	3-9	0.378	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	2-9-1	0.357	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-11	0.321	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	0-12	0.209	-	-	-	-	-	-

2020-12-06

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 14

We've got another new #1 this week. Coastal Carolina scheduled a game against #6 BYU with pretty short notice, which is a move that seems built for algorithms like mine. They were previously my #2 and #3 team, and one was certain to come out of that game 10-0 with a victory over a 9-1 team.

#45 Missouri outdid their performance last week with 50 points scored. However, they allowed 48 more points than the 0 from last week, so it was a close one. Still, a win is a win and they gain 6 spots by beating #70 Arkansas.

Vanderbilt's game got postponed but they still held their last place spot. They've got 2 games left on the schedule so we'll see if they can make any sort of move.

1	Coastal Carolina	10-0
2	Notre Dame	10-0
3	Louisiana	9-1
4	Alabama	9-0
5	Clemson	9-1
6	BYU	9-1
7	Miami	8-1
T-8	Cincinnati	8-0
T-8	Iowa State	8-2
10	NC State	8-3
11	Florida	8-1
12	Liberty	9-1
13	Marshall	7-1
14	SMU	7-3
15	Oklahoma	7-2
16	Texas A&M	7-1
17	UTSA	7-4
18	Appalachian State	7-3
19	North Carolina	7-3
20	Tulsa	6-1
21	Georgia Southern	7-4
22	Texas	6-3
23	Oklahoma State	6-3
24	Army	7-2
25	Memphis	6-3
26	Georgia	6-2
27	UCF	6-3
28	Tulane	6-5
29	Boston College	6-5
30	Indiana	6-1
31	Georgia State	5-4
32	Virginia	5-4
33	Nevada	6-1
34	Louisiana Tech	5-3
35	TCU	5-4
36	Florida Atlantic	5-2
37	Ohio State	5-0
38	San Jose State	5-0
39	Pittsburgh	5-5
40	Troy	5-5
41	Auburn	5-4
42	West Virginia	5-4
43	UAB	4-3
44	Northwestern	5-1
45	Missouri	5-3
46	Virginia Tech	4-6
47	Wake Forest	4-3
48	Colorado	4-0
49	Iowa	5-2
50	Boise State	4-1
51	Western Kentucky	5-6
52	Buffalo	4-0
53	Kansas State	4-6
54	Ball State	4-1
55	USC	4-0
56	Arkansas State	4-7
57	Texas Tech	4-6
58	Western Michigan	4-1
59	Ole Miss	4-4
60	South Alabama	4-7
61	Houston	3-3
62	San Diego State	4-3
63	Kentucky	4-6
64	Navy	3-6
65	Air Force	3-2
66	East Carolina	3-6
67	Georgia Tech	3-6
68	Washington	3-1
69	Kent State	3-1
70	Arkansas	3-6
71	Central Michigan	3-2
72	Louisville	3-7
73	UTEP	3-4
74	Middle Tennessee	3-6
75	Hawai'i	3-4
76	Fresno State	3-2
77	Oregon	3-2
T-78	North Texas	3-5
T-78	Toledo	3-2
80	UCLA	3-2
81	LSU	3-5
82	Miami (OH)	2-1
83	Rice	2-2
84	Florida State	2-6
85	Maryland	2-2
86	Wisconsin	2-2
87	Stanford	2-2
88	Charlotte	2-4
89	Ohio	2-1
90	Tennessee	2-6
91	Baylor	2-6
92	Michigan State	2-4
93	Texas State	2-10
94	Duke	2-8
95	Mississippi State	2-6
96	Nebraska	2-4
97	Minnesota	2-3
98	Oregon State	2-3
99	Southern Mississippi	2-7
100	Wyoming	2-3
101	Penn State	2-5
102	Utah	1-2
103	Purdue	2-4
104	Washington State	1-2
105	Michigan	2-4
106	South Carolina	2-8
107	Illinois	2-4
108	Colorado State	1-3
109	Rutgers	2-5
110	Eastern Michigan	1-4
111	California	1-3
112	Temple	1-6
113	UMass	0-4
114	Syracuse	1-10
115	Utah State	1-5
116	Arizona State	0-2
T-117	New Mexico	1-5
T-117	Akron	1-4
119	South Florida	1-8
120	Florida International	0-5
121	Arizona	0-4
122	Northern Illinois	0-5
123	UNLV	0-5
124	Kansas	0-9
125	UL Monroe	0-10
126	Bowling Green	0-5
127	Vanderbilt	0-8

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU
Week 6 BYU
Week 7 BYU
Week 8 BYU
Week 9 BYU
Week 10 BYU
Week 11 BYU
Week 12 BYU
Week 13 Notre Dame

2020-12-03

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 12, Final

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

With a win over Baltimore, Pittsburgh extended their franchise-best start to 11 wins (previously it was 7-0). I assumed they would have clinched a playoff spot, but they're not quite there. The chart shows 100% because it rounds to 2 decimal places, but it's more like 99.999998% of the 2 billion simulations I ran. There are just enough teams who can finish ahead of Pittsburgh that it's possible for them to wind up tied for the 7th seed in the AFC with Las Vegas, and lose based on tiebreakers. Kansas City also has not clinched, but has a mere 99.9955% chance of making the playoffs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	11-0	0.728	99.74	100.00	93.74	61.96	37.98	23.81
NO	9-2	0.677	99.10	99.98	84.72	52.48	31.62	16.13
KC	10-1	0.680	99.80	100.00	69.60	42.06	21.22	12.14
GB	8-3	0.607	96.94	99.13	64.88	34.90	17.03	7.42
MIA	7-4	0.659	34.72	81.08	47.75	23.71	11.87	6.51
LAR	7-4	0.603	33.74	92.39	54.01	27.16	13.33	5.76
TB	7-5	0.615	0.88	77.66	43.29	21.57	11.10	4.93
SEA	8-3	0.560	57.01	98.00	57.13	26.49	11.60	4.53
BAL	6-5	0.637	-	63.65	33.47	15.12	7.42	3.90
TEN	8-3	0.567	82.43	96.12	47.78	19.47	7.56	3.42
ARI	6-5	0.585	8.42	64.19	33.85	15.86	7.57	3.13
IND	7-4	0.591	17.37	60.68	29.58	12.12	5.27	2.52
BUF	8-3	0.531	64.14	90.94	40.24	14.69	5.30	2.22
CLE	8-3	0.460	0.26	73.32	26.31	7.64	2.35	0.83
WAS	4-7	0.496	38.97	39.24	16.10	6.16	2.33	0.77
SF	5-6	0.514	0.82	20.67	8.84	3.43	1.43	0.50
MIN	5-6	0.477	1.37	24.35	9.24	3.34	1.28	0.40
NYG	4-7	0.414	38.59	38.63	12.89	3.98	1.21	0.32
LV	6-5	0.454	0.20	27.49	9.37	2.66	0.84	0.29
CHI	5-6	0.424	1.67	19.91	6.66	2.05	0.68	0.19
PHI	3-7-1	0.419	17.50	17.52	5.93	1.87	0.58	0.16
NE	5-6	0.444	1.14	5.86	1.90	0.51	0.16	0.05
ATL	4-7	0.526	0.01	1.69	0.69	0.28	0.12	0.04
DAL	3-8	0.328	4.94	4.97	1.28	0.30	0.07	0.01
HOU	4-7	0.446	0.20	0.68	0.22	0.06	0.02	0.01
DET	4-7	0.368	0.02	1.35	0.38	0.10	0.03	0.01
CAR	4-8	0.460	-	0.31	0.11	0.04	0.01	0.00
DEN	4-7	0.330	-	0.17	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
LAC	3-8	0.458	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CIN	2-8-1	0.384	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	1-10	0.328	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	0-11	0.219	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans

2020-12-01

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 12, Monday

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

Normally Monday gets labeled as "Final", but this week is going to extend all the way through Wednesday, unless the Baltimore-Pittsburgh game is ultimately canceled for this week. Monday's game didn't change the projection, but brought Seattle a little closer to clinching a playoff spot at 8-3, while further weakening the NFC East. If every favorite wins for the rest of the year, Washington will make the playoffs at 6-10, and get to host 12-4 Seattle

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	10-0	0.712	97.25	99.96	88.27	56.46	33.30	20.23
NO	9-2	0.677	99.10	99.98	84.73	52.48	31.62	16.46
KC	10-1	0.680	99.80	99.99	74.91	44.98	23.59	13.50
GB	8-3	0.607	96.95	99.13	64.89	34.90	17.03	7.59
MIA	7-4	0.659	34.34	79.40	46.22	23.22	11.90	6.53
LAR	7-4	0.603	33.74	92.39	54.00	27.15	13.33	5.89
TB	7-5	0.615	0.88	77.67	43.28	21.57	11.10	5.04
BAL	6-4	0.641	1.62	74.08	40.03	19.03	9.46	5.01
SEA	8-3	0.560	57.01	98.00	57.12	26.48	11.60	4.63
TEN	8-3	0.567	82.11	95.45	47.12	19.28	7.73	3.50
ARI	6-5	0.585	8.42	64.20	33.84	15.86	7.57	3.21
IND	7-4	0.591	17.69	58.59	28.31	11.88	5.26	2.51
BUF	8-3	0.531	64.53	89.70	39.17	14.53	5.39	2.25
CLE	8-3	0.460	1.13	71.91	25.58	7.62	2.40	0.84
WAS	4-7	0.496	39.49	39.76	16.32	6.24	2.36	0.80
SF	5-6	0.514	0.82	20.67	8.84	3.43	1.43	0.51
MIN	5-6	0.477	1.37	24.34	9.24	3.33	1.27	0.41
NYG	4-7	0.414	38.26	38.30	12.77	3.95	1.20	0.33
LV	6-5	0.454	0.20	24.95	8.48	2.48	0.80	0.27
CHI	5-6	0.424	1.67	19.91	6.65	2.05	0.68	0.19
PHI	3-7-1	0.419	17.40	17.42	5.89	1.86	0.58	0.16
NE	5-6	0.444	1.13	5.20	1.67	0.47	0.15	0.05
ATL	4-7	0.526	0.01	1.69	0.69	0.28	0.12	0.04
DAL	3-8	0.328	4.86	4.88	1.25	0.30	0.07	0.01
DET	4-7	0.368	0.02	1.35	0.38	0.09	0.03	0.01
HOU	4-7	0.446	0.20	0.61	0.20	0.06	0.02	0.01
CAR	4-8	0.460	-	0.31	0.11	0.04	0.01	0.00
DEN	4-7	0.329	-	0.14	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
LAC	3-8	0.458	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CIN	2-8-1	0.384	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	1-10	0.328	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	0-11	0.219	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans