Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 9, Thursday

Denver over Detroit

New Orleans bumped up their strength by several positions with their win over Carolina, but somewhat interestingly, Carolina stayed in the same position. That's partially because of a wide spread between the teams above and below them, but also that the points scored and points allowed ratio for Thursday's game was reasonably close to their season average. Nothing changes at the top, but the NFC South is now much more firmly in the hands of the Saints.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	5-3	0.660	53.687	69.819	51.395	29.850	17.204	10.298
SD	5-3	0.612	12.218	50.397	30.813	15.983	8.307	4.547
DEN	6-1	0.611	73.468	91.070	78.028	41.135	21.332	11.666
IND	5-3	0.603	81.839	84.672	56.899	29.111	14.725	7.920
KC	4-3	0.597	14.314	49.556	30.446	15.288	7.676	4.088
DET	6-2	0.590	70.167	88.454	71.726	38.626	20.546	10.070
DAL	6-2	0.588	51.234	82.194	61.935	32.986	17.439	8.504
NE	6-2	0.587	64.075	74.662	53.011	26.181	12.732	6.642
PHI	5-2	0.582	45.954	72.180	51.272	26.798	14.013	6.759
GB	5-3	0.556	24.505	52.446	32.206	15.740	7.749	3.527
ARI	6-1	0.553	69.266	87.840	70.084	34.756	16.811	7.614
NO	4-4	0.551	76.996	77.480	40.457	19.434	9.393	4.233
BUF	5-3	0.548	30.830	44.128	25.432	11.456	5.117	2.469
SEA	4-3	0.544	16.315	42.056	25.045	11.944	5.696	2.530
HOU	4-4	0.540	17.936	28.718	15.289	6.809	3.013	1.431
SF	4-3	0.524	14.145	41.532	23.876	10.880	4.954	2.099
CLE	4-3	0.523	11.256	23.663	12.968	5.544	2.346	1.072
PIT	5-3	0.517	18.350	39.583	22.637	9.508	3.954	1.786
MIA	3-4	0.494	5.082	8.765	4.173	1.668	0.662	0.284
CIN	4-2-1	0.494	16.706	34.643	18.812	7.440	2.923	1.254
CHI	4-4	0.470	4.702	15.305	7.562	3.063	1.250	0.467
NYG	3-4	0.470	2.069	9.355	4.290	1.723	0.702	0.262
ATL	2-6	0.448	9.810	10.021	3.976	1.508	0.578	0.203
WAS	3-5	0.442	0.742	3.203	1.323	0.497	0.190	0.066
MIN	3-5	0.421	0.625	3.656	1.444	0.511	0.184	0.060
CAR	3-5-1	0.385	12.410	12.720	4.299	1.382	0.449	0.133
STL	2-5	0.374	0.274	0.746	0.255	0.078	0.025	0.007
TEN	2-6	0.369	0.199	0.277	0.084	0.024	0.007	0.002
TB	1-6	0.357	0.784	0.810	0.251	0.074	0.022	0.006
OAK	0-7	0.352	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	1-7	0.350	0.013	0.020	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
JAC	1-7	0.318	0.025	0.026	0.007	0.002	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]

2014 World Series Projections Wrapup

I liked this visualization of my 2013 World Series projections I did last year, so I did the same style this year. Instead of sorting the teams from strongest to weakest, I put the #1 seeds at the edges, then the wildcards, and the other division winners in the middle, AL on top, NL on the bottom.

Do you have any idea how hard it is to choose 10 unique colors to represent the playoff teams. Sure, Oakland's easy as the only green team, but San Francisco and Baltimore both use just orange and black, leaving me yellow for Pittsburgh. The Royals and Dodgers are blue, and the Angels and Cardinals are red, so they just had to share. The Angels and Cardinals could have also been navy I suppose, but that went to the Nationals. Finally, Detroit got a rather nonsensical white, since they're pretty much navy, orange, and white.

Worst position for San Francisco: 3.81% on September 29, before the first Wildcard game

Best position for Kansas City: 66.15% on October 25, up 2-1 in the World Series

Best position for an LCS loser: 38.61% for Baltimore on October 8, when the NLDSs finished and the statistically weaker teams won both, but before the ALCS began.

Best position for an LDS loser: 21.17% for Washington on October 3, before the NLDS began.

Best position for a Wildcard loser: 11.4% for Oakland, before the playoffs began. I had them projected as the strongest team, but Kansas City took them out as their first step toward their World Series appearance. They would have been favored at the start of any series they played, but never got to play beyond the first Wildcard game.

For completeness, here's the final playoff results for 2014:

San Francisco over Kansas City

World Series
SF 4-3 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
SF 4-1 STL

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

As I saw several bloggers point out today, we're all tied for first place now, and pitchers and catchers report in under 4 months.

2014 World Series Projection, October 29

San Francisco over Kansas City

World Series
SF 3-3 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
SF 4-1 STL

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	Win
SF	0.5363	51.71
KC	0.5193	48.29

Tonight's game will decide the World Series winner.

San Francisco has a projected winning percentage of 51.71%, as they've had in each game. That doesn't take into account that day's starting pitcher, nor the location, so the margin of error on an individual game - especially with the favorite on the road - quite high, making this a statistical tie, I would venture.

I'll be rooting for Kansas City, but I'm hoping for something a little more dramatic than a 10-0 blowout. There are dangerous hitters on both teams, so no game is over until it's over, but anything more than a few runs deficit just makes the game feel over. I am looking forward to the all-hands-on-deck bullpen policy that usually comes in these games, since the manager doesn't need to worry about saving anyone for tomorrow; everyone's got plenty of rest after today. There's just something interesting about the oddity and rarity of a game where 23 or 24 of the 25-man roster makes it into the game.

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 8, Final

Denver over Detroit

Could the Lions make the Superbowl? After seeing some of their past futility, I didn't think it would happen in my lifetime. But, I suppose I would have said the same thing about the Rams in the last years in LA and first years in St. Louis. Right now Detroit has taken over the NFC lead. Dallas's loss dropped them signifcantly because they were heavily favored to win last night's game. They're back to just a half game ahead of Philadelphia for the NFC East, making their lead a bit more tenuous than it was before yesterday. Detroit is up by a full game on Green Bay, and has a larger strength difference with them than Dallas does with Philadelphia.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	5-3	0.660	53.937	70.298	51.870	30.134	17.364	10.436
SD	5-3	0.612	12.216	50.186	30.685	15.917	8.274	4.548
DEN	6-1	0.611	73.461	91.012	77.947	41.100	21.313	11.706
IND	5-3	0.603	81.841	84.639	56.776	29.049	14.688	7.942
KC	4-3	0.598	14.322	49.368	30.330	15.227	7.645	4.091
DET	6-2	0.590	70.048	88.354	72.160	39.313	21.065	10.328
DAL	6-2	0.588	51.596	82.049	62.678	33.722	17.957	8.757
NE	6-2	0.587	64.089	74.596	52.910	26.126	12.703	6.664
PHI	5-2	0.582	45.551	71.488	51.390	27.095	14.273	6.883
GB	5-3	0.556	24.523	52.499	32.971	16.223	8.055	3.666
ARI	6-1	0.553	69.083	87.814	70.694	35.522	17.312	7.842
BUF	5-3	0.549	30.817	44.008	25.352	11.415	5.098	2.475
SEA	4-3	0.544	16.247	42.043	25.581	12.285	5.900	2.621
HOU	4-4	0.540	17.935	28.602	15.215	6.774	2.996	1.430
SF	4-3	0.524	14.398	42.207	24.972	11.448	5.248	2.225
CLE	4-3	0.523	10.698	22.890	12.509	5.343	2.260	1.040
NO	3-4	0.519	55.970	56.617	27.254	12.213	5.516	2.312
PIT	5-3	0.517	18.532	40.154	23.006	9.661	4.017	1.823
MIA	3-4	0.494	5.081	8.714	4.142	1.658	0.659	0.285
CIN	4-2-1	0.494	16.833	35.211	19.163	7.571	2.975	1.283
CHI	4-4	0.470	4.832	15.668	7.950	3.236	1.333	0.497
NYG	3-4	0.470	2.098	9.299	4.391	1.770	0.727	0.271
ATL	2-6	0.448	11.036	11.169	4.429	1.678	0.644	0.226
WAS	3-5	0.442	0.755	3.182	1.350	0.509	0.197	0.068
MIN	3-5	0.420	0.598	3.478	1.417	0.503	0.183	0.060
CAR	3-4-1	0.420	31.933	32.309	12.165	4.303	1.536	0.502
STL	2-5	0.374	0.272	0.741	0.260	0.080	0.026	0.007
TEN	2-6	0.368	0.199	0.275	0.083	0.024	0.007	0.002
TB	1-6	0.357	1.062	1.081	0.335	0.099	0.030	0.008
OAK	0-7	0.352	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	1-7	0.350	0.013	0.019	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
JAC	1-7	0.318	0.025	0.026	0.007	0.002	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Denver over Dallas

Baltimore remains the strongest team in the league despite their narrow loss to Cincinnati, but that division loss hurts badly in the standings. They dropped from 79% to 54% likely to win the AFC North, and from an 89% chance of making the playoffs to just 70%. Thus, Denver has taken over as the most likely AFC representative in the Superbowl.

Dallas plays Monday night, but a Philadelphia loss has already boosted them even higher in the NFC, although Detroit made their own push with a win in London over Atlanta.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	5-3	0.660	53.942	70.294	51.854	30.127	17.363	10.409
SD	5-3	0.612	12.214	50.212	30.697	15.923	8.277	4.539
DEN	6-1	0.611	73.464	91.012	77.950	41.104	21.315	11.684
IND	5-3	0.603	81.873	84.668	56.812	29.062	14.700	7.927
KC	4-3	0.598	14.322	49.387	30.335	15.232	7.647	4.085
DET	6-2	0.590	70.053	87.853	70.387	38.243	20.388	9.993
DAL	6-1	0.589	63.555	89.932	73.481	39.808	21.238	10.392
NE	6-2	0.587	64.093	74.608	52.923	26.123	12.704	6.650
PHI	5-2	0.583	34.883	69.976	48.786	25.487	13.375	6.450
GB	5-3	0.556	24.520	51.629	31.728	15.575	7.697	3.502
ARI	6-1	0.553	69.032	87.468	69.227	34.587	16.803	7.609
BUF	5-3	0.549	30.814	44.000	25.344	11.418	5.098	2.467
SEA	4-3	0.544	16.239	41.381	24.868	11.865	5.687	2.526
HOU	4-4	0.540	17.902	28.523	15.167	6.750	2.984	1.420
SF	4-3	0.524	14.457	41.491	24.156	11.014	5.035	2.132
CLE	4-3	0.523	10.687	22.884	12.504	5.340	2.258	1.036
NO	3-4	0.519	55.977	56.609	26.917	12.018	5.417	2.269
PIT	5-3	0.517	18.537	40.160	23.013	9.660	4.011	1.814
MIA	3-4	0.494	5.080	8.720	4.146	1.659	0.659	0.285
CIN	4-2-1	0.494	16.834	35.209	19.160	7.574	2.976	1.280
CHI	4-4	0.470	4.828	15.196	7.596	3.077	1.262	0.471
NYG	3-4	0.470	1.306	8.599	3.985	1.593	0.653	0.242
ATL	2-6	0.448	11.036	11.164	4.389	1.655	0.636	0.224
WAS	2-5	0.438	0.256	1.297	0.540	0.201	0.077	0.026
MIN	3-5	0.420	0.598	3.315	1.334	0.470	0.170	0.056
CAR	3-4-1	0.420	31.923	32.290	12.023	4.234	1.508	0.493
STL	2-5	0.374	0.273	0.721	0.251	0.077	0.024	0.007
TEN	2-6	0.368	0.199	0.275	0.084	0.023	0.007	0.002
TB	1-6	0.357	1.064	1.081	0.332	0.098	0.029	0.008
OAK	0-7	0.352	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	1-7	0.350	0.013	0.020	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
JAC	1-7	0.318	0.026	0.027	0.007	0.002	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]

2014 World Series Projection, October 27

San Francisco over Kansas City

World Series
SF 3-2 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
SF 4-1 STL

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	Win
SF	0.5363	76.68
KC	0.5193	23.32

San Francisco has a 76.68% chance of winning game 6, or losing game 6 and winning game 7. I don't think I'm quite ready for baseball to be over for the year, but it will be in either 2 or 3 more days.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

We have our first repeat #1, with Mississippi taking back the top spot they lost in their bye week, due in part to Week 8 #1 Florida State's bye week. Ole Miss maintained the #2 spot, by losing to a very strong team, the now-#6 LSU Tigers.

Conference Play is not going to be kind to Marshall. They went from #4 to #8 this week despite a win, because their opponent was now-#100 Florida Atlantic. Their 4 remaining opponents are ranked #80-#97, and the current likely conference championship opponent is ranked #49. Those games aren't going to get them a lot of credibility, but it'd be an interesting decision the committee would have to make to start the College Football Playoff Era.

Missouri's win over Vanderbilt only bumped them up one spot to #19. It's going to take some wins and some help for me to consider them a playoff contender.

At the bottom, SMU lost again and maintains a hold on #127.

1	Mississippi State	7-0
2	Ole Miss	7-1
3	Florida State	7-0
4	Alabama	7-1
5	Oregon	7-1
6	LSU	7-2
7	Nebraska	7-1
8	Marshall	8-0
9	Michigan State	7-1
10	Auburn	6-1
11	Clemson	6-2
12	Colorado State	7-1
13	Notre Dame	6-1
14	Georgia Tech	6-2
15	Kansas State	6-1
16	TCU	6-1
17	West Virginia	6-2
18	UCLA	6-2
19	Missouri	6-2
20	Utah	6-1
21	Boise State	6-2
22	Georgia	6-1
23	Ohio State	6-1
24	Arizona	6-1
25	Arizona State	6-1
26	Minnesota	6-2
27	Louisville	6-2
28	Baylor	6-1
29	Duke	6-1
30	East Carolina	6-1
31	Miami (FL)	5-3
32	Maryland	5-3
33	Oklahoma	5-2
34	USC	5-3
35	Wisconsin	5-2
36	Texas A&M	5-3
37	Northern Illinois	6-2
38	UCF	5-2
39	Washington	5-3
40	Oklahoma State	5-3
41	Kentucky	5-3
42	Iowa	5-2
43	Boston College	5-3
44	Georgia Southern	6-2
45	Stanford	5-3
46	Toledo	5-3
47	Utah State	5-3
48	Nevada	5-3
49	Louisiana Tech	5-3
50	Virginia Tech	4-4
51	North Carolina	4-4
52	Middle Tennessee	5-3
53	Rutgers	5-3
54	Western Michigan	5-3
55	Air Force	5-2
56	Central Michigan	5-4
57	North Carolina State	4-4
58	South Carolina	4-4
59	Illinois	4-4
60	Bowling Green	5-3
61	Virginia	4-4
62	Louisiana-Lafayette	4-3
63	Arkansas	4-4
64	Pittsburgh	4-4
65	South Alabama	5-2
66	California	4-4
67	Arkansas State	4-3
68	Penn State	4-3
69	BYU	4-4
70	Memphis	4-3
71	Oregon State	4-3
72	Houston	4-3
73	Cincinnati	4-3
74	Syracuse	3-5
75	Florida	3-3
76	Purdue	3-5
77	Tennessee	3-5
78	Navy	4-4
79	UTEP	4-3
80	Rice	4-3
81	San Diego State	4-3
82	Northwestern	3-4
83	Indiana	3-4
84	Ohio	4-5
85	UAB	4-4
86	Texas Tech	3-5
87	Texas State	4-3
88	Temple	4-3
89	Akron	4-4
90	Michigan	3-5
91	Wyoming	3-5
92	Southern Miss	3-5
93	San Jose State	3-4
94	Texas	3-5
95	Florida International	3-5
96	Ball State	3-5
97	Western Kentucky	3-4
98	Fresno State	3-5
99	South Florida	3-5
100	Florida Atlantic	3-5
101	Iowa State	2-5
102	Louisiana-Monroe	3-4
103	Washington State	2-6
104	Buffalo	3-5
105	Kansas	2-5
106	Vanderbilt	2-6
107	Tulane	2-5
108	Colorado	2-6
109	Wake Forest	2-6
110	UNLV	2-6
111	UTSA	2-6
112	Hawaii	2-6
113	New Mexico	2-5
114	Appalachian State	2-5
115	Eastern Michigan	2-6
116	Army	2-5
117	Miami (OH)	2-7
118	New Mexico State	2-6
119	North Texas	2-6
120	Connecticut	1-6
121	Tulsa	1-6
122	Massachusetts	2-7
123	Georgia State	1-7
124	Idaho	1-6
125	Troy	1-7
126	Kent State	1-7
127	SMU	0-7

2014 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0

Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State

2014 World Series Projection, October 26

San Francisco over Kansas City

World Series
SF 2-2 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
SF 4-1 STL

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	Win
SF	0.5363	52.56
KC	0.5193	47.44

Here we are again, back even. San Francisco's advantage shrinks each time the series evens, from 53.73% to 53.20% to now 52.56%. It's still better than being the underdog, but KC now has homefield advantage back, which should make this whole thing just about a tossup.

2014 World Series Projection, October 25

Kansas City over San Francisco

World Series
SF 1-2 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
SF 4-1 STL

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	Win
SF	0.5363	33.85
KC	0.5193	66.15

I believe this is the first time Kansas City has been projected as the winner, because they were the second weakest team, and the weakest, St. Louis, was never projected as the NLCS winner. Even after they swept the ALCS, I had San Francisco projected to beat them. Of course, Game 4 going San Francisco's way would even the series and tip it back in the Giants' favor.

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 8, Thursday

Baltimore over Dallas

It's an extremely close race at the top of the AFC, with Baltimore, Denver, and Indianapolis having between a 22 and 23.7% chance of winning the conference, each. Despite yesterday's result, I'd still project San Diego to beat Denver just over 50% of the time, but not much more than that. The NFC stays the same, because none of them played yesterday.

I just found out that the London game this Sunday will be on at 8:30am local time for me, which sounds pretty good - I'll get a chance to watch games in 4 timeslots instead of 3, if I actually have a chance to stay home most of the day. However, I don't think I'd appreciate that quite as much if I was on the west coast. 6:30 on a Sunday just seems a little too early to drag myself out of bed for football.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	5-2	0.660	78.639	89.195	71.312	41.438	23.778	14.171
IND	5-2	0.632	93.900	95.777	76.215	41.620	22.323	12.639
SD	5-3	0.611	13.851	63.558	38.580	19.526	9.930	5.415
DEN	6-1	0.611	78.786	94.620	81.951	43.889	22.038	12.001
GB	5-2	0.593	43.179	72.741	53.783	29.044	15.468	7.489
DET	5-2	0.589	47.170	76.580	58.348	31.337	16.515	7.929
DAL	6-1	0.589	54.285	87.026	69.841	37.496	19.861	9.533
PHI	5-1	0.585	44.622	78.708	60.175	31.851	16.723	7.962
ARI	5-1	0.545	61.514	74.765	54.810	26.584	12.637	5.506
KC	3-3	0.544	7.357	38.206	20.133	8.721	3.800	1.811
NE	5-2	0.543	59.972	67.932	40.317	17.325	7.440	3.537
SEA	3-3	0.533	16.163	29.619	17.516	8.123	3.786	1.608
CHI	4-3	0.524	9.433	29.208	17.392	8.000	3.674	1.528
SF	4-3	0.524	20.731	39.123	23.280	10.600	4.826	2.004
HOU	3-4	0.511	5.569	18.243	8.631	3.477	1.418	0.630
BUF	4-3	0.507	32.730	41.633	20.574	8.057	3.182	1.399
CLE	3-3	0.502	5.546	20.374	9.767	3.841	1.526	0.663
CIN	3-2-1	0.488	8.990	30.888	14.794	5.600	2.143	0.903
PIT	4-3	0.483	6.824	27.848	12.921	4.846	1.836	0.765
NO	2-4	0.482	28.469	29.005	12.334	5.040	2.076	0.781
NYG	3-4	0.470	0.912	6.245	2.974	1.187	0.484	0.177
MIA	2-4	0.467	6.784	9.569	4.100	1.457	0.525	0.210
ATL	2-5	0.451	17.129	17.384	6.816	2.583	0.990	0.344
WAS	2-5	0.439	0.181	1.003	0.429	0.159	0.061	0.020
CAR	3-3-1	0.433	51.400	51.679	19.794	7.165	2.617	0.867
STL	2-4	0.418	1.593	2.526	0.999	0.345	0.123	0.039
MIN	2-5	0.411	0.218	1.325	0.538	0.186	0.066	0.021
TEN	2-5	0.394	0.497	1.401	0.471	0.140	0.042	0.014
NYJ	1-6	0.377	0.514	0.659	0.206	0.056	0.015	0.005
TB	1-5	0.376	3.003	3.063	0.972	0.301	0.094	0.027
OAK	0-6	0.374	0.006	0.030	0.009	0.003	0.001	0.000
JAC	1-6	0.343	0.034	0.069	0.020	0.005	0.001	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]

2014 World Series Projection, October 23

San Francisco over Kansas City

World Series
SF 1-1 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
SF 4-1 STL

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	Win
SF	0.5363	53.20
KC	0.5193	46.80

We're back even, and San Francisco isn't quite as well off as they were at 0-0, though they're just slightly lower than before. That's because a longer series always favors the stronger team, and this is now basically as best-of-5, but with the NL now having homefield advantage (and #1 and #2 starters already used).

2014 World Series Projection, October 22

San Francisco over Kansas City

World Series
SF 1-0 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
STL 1-4 SF

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	Win
SF	0.5363	68.77
KC	0.5193	31.23

In this series, the teams are closely matched enough that it will always favor the team that is leading, and San Francisco when it is tied. So, the more interesting piece of information is how likely the win is. Right now, that's over 68% in the Giants' favor. The Royals playoff win streak stopped at 8, or 11 if you count multi-year streaks, as they won the last 3 games of the 1985 World Series in their last playoff appearance.

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 7, Final

Baltimore over Dallas

The matchup of two 3-3 AFC teams didn't affect much at the top of the conference, and Baltimore is still favored. They did lose a little ground in the division since it was Pittsburgh that won. But, the Pittsburgh point differential is still negative, which makes it rather unlikely they'd be projected to surpass Baltimore, and so they're only projected to win the division in under 7% of cases. Indianapolis got a boost from the Houston loss and has the largest division chances of any team, but they stayed just behind Baltimore in terms of Superbowl chances.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	5-2	0.660	78.181	88.569	71.267	41.482	23.734	14.143
SD	5-2	0.635	39.107	79.518	57.575	31.523	16.855	9.600
IND	5-2	0.632	93.899	95.624	76.712	42.048	22.449	12.704
GB	5-2	0.593	43.186	72.772	53.781	29.041	15.467	7.469
DEN	5-1	0.590	52.205	84.649	64.450	32.056	15.328	8.011
DET	5-2	0.589	47.169	76.621	58.387	31.367	16.526	7.920
DAL	6-1	0.589	54.282	87.065	69.871	37.505	19.865	9.518
PHI	5-1	0.585	44.627	78.755	60.215	31.859	16.718	7.943
ARI	5-1	0.545	61.752	74.940	54.970	26.656	12.678	5.512
KC	3-3	0.544	8.682	36.696	19.746	8.591	3.735	1.780
NE	5-2	0.543	59.688	67.486	40.079	17.268	7.403	3.518
SEA	3-3	0.533	16.214	29.647	17.519	8.128	3.791	1.606
CHI	4-3	0.524	9.427	29.239	17.407	8.004	3.674	1.522
SF	4-3	0.524	20.436	38.691	22.975	10.459	4.766	1.975
HOU	3-4	0.511	5.569	17.472	8.318	3.363	1.371	0.608
BUF	4-3	0.507	33.073	41.875	20.572	8.068	3.179	1.398
CLE	3-3	0.502	5.601	19.478	9.391	3.702	1.470	0.640
CIN	3-2-1	0.488	9.323	30.493	14.740	5.589	2.132	0.898
PIT	4-3	0.483	6.895	26.727	12.488	4.692	1.776	0.741
NO	2-4	0.482	28.466	29.006	12.335	5.044	2.081	0.781
NYG	3-4	0.470	0.909	6.261	2.980	1.190	0.485	0.177
MIA	2-4	0.467	6.729	9.360	3.993	1.422	0.511	0.205
ATL	2-5	0.451	17.125	17.383	6.813	2.582	0.988	0.342
WAS	2-5	0.439	0.181	1.008	0.431	0.160	0.060	0.020
CAR	3-3-1	0.433	51.406	51.687	19.803	7.170	2.617	0.864
STL	2-4	0.418	1.599	2.534	1.001	0.346	0.124	0.039
MIN	2-5	0.411	0.219	1.326	0.539	0.186	0.066	0.020
TEN	2-5	0.394	0.498	1.315	0.443	0.133	0.040	0.013
NYJ	1-6	0.377	0.511	0.642	0.198	0.054	0.015	0.005
TB	1-5	0.376	3.003	3.064	0.972	0.301	0.094	0.027
OAK	0-6	0.374	0.006	0.030	0.009	0.003	0.001	0.000
JAC	1-6	0.343	0.034	0.066	0.018	0.005	0.001	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 7, Sunday

Baltimore over Dallas

Dallas took over the NFC lead with a win during Philadelphia's bye week, and a division win at that, which will help in case it comes to a tiebreaker with Philadelphia.

San Diego lost, and Baltimore was able to swoop in to take the AFC lead for the first time this year. Indianapolis improved their strength number significantly with a 27-0 win against Cincinnati, dropping the once-favorites to 3-2-1 and just a 30% chance of even making the playoffs. Indianapolis improved their position enough to now have a 93% chance of making the playoffs - and to get a mention in my high-water-marks list - presumably due to an easier schedule than Baltimore, and San Diego's close competition with Denver for that division.

The Rams are showing signs of life, with a fake punt and a fake punt return, which I missed live. I had to watch the video before I could even grasp what a fake punt return is, but it worked beautifully. The NFC West isn't looking so hot this year, except for 5-1 Arizona, who were NFC favorites earlier in the year.

Finally, congrats to Jacksonville for picking up a win, but my projections still say you'd lose to 0-6 Oakland.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	5-2	0.660	80.187	88.909	71.202	41.425	23.719	14.133
SD	5-2	0.635	39.067	78.969	57.135	31.267	16.723	9.528
IND	5-2	0.631	89.382	93.668	75.437	41.342	22.054	12.488
GB	5-2	0.593	43.177	72.759	53.768	29.036	15.463	7.473
DEN	5-1	0.589	52.161	84.215	64.099	31.868	15.245	7.967
DET	5-2	0.589	47.175	76.628	58.390	31.356	16.527	7.915
DAL	6-1	0.589	54.524	87.133	69.998	37.585	19.908	9.542
PHI	5-1	0.585	44.373	78.533	59.967	31.726	16.647	7.911
ARI	5-1	0.545	61.745	74.949	54.980	26.666	12.678	5.511
KC	3-3	0.544	8.766	36.152	19.501	8.494	3.696	1.762
NE	5-2	0.543	59.682	67.241	39.807	17.151	7.351	3.495
SEA	3-3	0.533	16.215	29.683	17.545	8.140	3.797	1.610
HOU	3-3	0.527	10.174	33.003	17.050	7.143	3.003	1.380
CHI	4-3	0.524	9.430	29.246	17.413	8.008	3.676	1.523
SF	4-3	0.524	20.439	38.731	23.006	10.473	4.772	1.978
BUF	4-3	0.507	33.068	41.612	20.398	7.999	3.154	1.388
CLE	3-3	0.502	6.002	19.370	9.327	3.684	1.464	0.637
CIN	3-2-1	0.488	9.911	30.624	14.819	5.629	2.151	0.905
NO	2-4	0.482	28.634	29.180	12.406	5.073	2.092	0.789
NYG	3-4	0.470	0.921	6.312	3.006	1.200	0.490	0.179
PIT	3-3	0.468	3.899	15.020	6.648	2.408	0.880	0.354
MIA	2-4	0.467	6.731	9.268	3.944	1.407	0.506	0.202
ATL	2-5	0.451	17.257	17.519	6.872	2.607	0.998	0.345
WAS	2-5	0.439	0.183	1.008	0.432	0.160	0.061	0.020
CAR	3-3-1	0.433	51.134	51.421	19.717	7.139	2.607	0.861
STL	2-4	0.418	1.600	2.535	1.001	0.347	0.124	0.039
MIN	2-5	0.411	0.218	1.328	0.539	0.186	0.066	0.020
TEN	2-5	0.394	0.417	1.218	0.410	0.122	0.037	0.012
NYJ	1-6	0.377	0.519	0.641	0.197	0.054	0.015	0.005
TB	1-5	0.376	2.976	3.035	0.961	0.297	0.093	0.026
OAK	0-6	0.374	0.006	0.028	0.009	0.002	0.001	0.000
JAC	1-6	0.343	0.027	0.061	0.017	0.004	0.001	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

Florida State finally reached the top of my rankings, which would have likely been the result for Notre Dame as well, since the teams were #3 and #4 going into this week. Now Notre Dame is down to #8. Ole Miss stayed at #2, and Mississippi State dropped 2 spots to #3 in their bye week.

To quote my Mizzou-alumni pal, the SEC East is a hell of a division this year. Fresh off their shutout against Georgia, Missouri is back up to #20 in my rankings, after nearly shutting out Florida, before allowing a few scores once the game was out of hand.

At the bottom, both Kent State and Idaho got their first wins, and the SMU Mustangs are your new bottom of the pack

1	Florida State	7-0
2	Ole Miss	7-0
3	Mississippi State	6-0
4	Marshall	7-0
5	Alabama	6-1
6	Oregon	6-1
7	Michigan State	6-1
8	Notre Dame	6-1
9	Nebraska	6-1
10	LSU	6-2
11	Minnesota	6-1
12	Georgia	6-1
13	Louisville	6-2
14	Baylor	6-1
15	Colorado State	6-1
16	Clemson	5-2
17	Auburn	5-1
18	Duke	6-1
19	UCLA	5-2
20	Missouri	5-2
21	TCU	5-1
22	Maryland	5-2
23	West Virginia	5-2
24	Kansas State	5-1
25	Arizona	5-1
26	Georgia Tech	5-2
27	USC	5-2
28	Utah	5-1
29	Texas A&M	5-3
30	Oklahoma	5-2
31	Boise State	5-2
32	Ohio State	5-1
33	Washington	5-2
34	Oklahoma State	5-2
35	Kentucky	5-2
36	East Carolina	5-1
37	Arizona State	5-1
38	Iowa	5-2
39	Middle Tennessee	5-3
40	Rutgers	5-2
41	Virginia Tech	4-3
42	UCF	4-2
43	South Carolina	4-3
44	Virginia	4-3
45	Miami (FL)	4-3
46	North Carolina State	4-4
47	Northern Illinois	5-2
48	Air Force	5-2
49	Pittsburgh	4-3
50	Wisconsin	4-2
51	Boston College	4-3
52	Utah State	4-3
53	Georgia Southern	5-2
54	Arkansas State	4-2
55	Bowling Green	5-3
56	California	4-3
57	Nevada	4-3
58	Penn State	4-2
59	BYU	4-3
60	Stanford	4-3
61	Toledo	4-3
62	Oregon State	4-2
63	Houston	4-3
64	Louisiana Tech	4-3
65	Syracuse	3-4
66	North Carolina	3-4
67	Central Michigan	4-4
68	Florida	3-3
69	Akron	4-3
70	Tennessee	3-4
71	Western Michigan	4-3
72	Northwestern	3-4
73	Ohio	4-4
74	Purdue	3-5
75	UAB	4-3
76	South Alabama	4-2
77	Indiana	3-4
78	San Diego State	4-3
79	Arkansas	3-4
80	Temple	4-2
81	Memphis	3-3
82	San Jose State	3-3
83	Wyoming	3-4
84	Illinois	3-4
85	Michigan	3-4
86	Texas Tech	3-4
87	Southern Miss	3-4
88	Louisiana-Lafayette	3-3
89	Texas	3-4
90	Florida International	3-5
91	South Florida	3-4
92	Rice	3-3
93	Louisiana-Monroe	3-3
94	Cincinnati	3-3
95	UTEP	3-3
96	Fresno State	3-5
97	Florida Atlantic	3-4
98	Navy	3-4
99	Iowa State	2-5
100	Buffalo	3-4
101	Vanderbilt	2-5
102	Washington State	2-5
103	Kansas	2-5
104	Texas State	3-3
105	Tulane	2-5
106	Western Kentucky	2-4
107	Colorado	2-5
108	Wake Forest	2-5
109	UTSA	2-5
110	Ball State	2-5
111	UNLV	2-5
112	Hawaii	2-5
113	Eastern Michigan	2-5
114	Appalachian State	2-5
115	New Mexico	2-5
116	Army	2-5
117	North Texas	2-5
118	Connecticut	1-5
119	Massachusetts	2-6
120	New Mexico State	2-6
121	Tulsa	1-6
122	Georgia State	1-6
123	Kent State	1-6
124	Troy	1-6
125	Miami (OH)	1-7
126	Idaho	1-6
127	SMU	0-6

2014 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0

Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 7, Thursday

San Diego over Philadelphia

I've barely got time to post today, and no time for analysis, so I'll just say that unsurprisingly, the all AFC East game didn't affect the AFC West and NFC East projected Conference Champs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SD	5-1	0.633	60.152	86.881	71.190	40.949	23.244	13.496
BAL	4-2	0.624	52.340	73.423	55.040	30.730	16.827	9.606
DET	4-2	0.590	53.213	72.826	55.240	30.489	16.543	8.361
IND	4-2	0.586	78.916	83.623	59.090	30.338	15.228	8.101
PHI	5-1	0.586	51.314	80.270	62.840	34.223	18.531	9.283
DEN	4-1	0.575	34.413	72.374	50.828	25.076	12.427	6.469
DAL	5-1	0.572	44.245	79.372	60.398	31.785	16.701	8.143
GB	4-2	0.558	36.849	57.675	39.315	20.102	10.192	4.825
NE	5-2	0.543	61.196	68.545	42.706	19.606	8.894	4.344
CIN	3-1-1	0.539	26.770	52.652	33.857	15.521	7.012	3.399
SF	4-2	0.538	31.050	53.852	35.922	17.500	8.422	3.820
KC	2-3	0.538	5.404	21.516	11.944	5.422	2.484	1.202
SEA	3-2	0.538	26.630	45.410	29.979	14.589	7.022	3.181
CLE	3-2	0.535	16.851	38.068	22.915	10.411	4.675	2.250
HOU	3-3	0.527	18.879	35.094	19.452	8.640	3.821	1.804
ARI	4-1	0.521	41.521	62.282	43.109	20.325	9.423	4.113
BUF	3-3	0.504	24.291	31.258	15.637	6.516	2.717	1.224
CHI	3-3	0.498	8.859	20.882	11.848	5.311	2.371	0.982
MIA	2-3	0.492	14.050	19.025	9.338	3.804	1.550	0.679
ATL	2-4	0.490	19.798	21.062	9.854	4.243	1.833	0.746
NYG	3-3	0.490	4.299	17.116	9.166	3.976	1.746	0.709
NO	2-3	0.485	24.860	27.030	13.034	5.551	2.365	0.950
CAR	3-2-1	0.470	53.976	55.295	26.479	10.898	4.484	1.736
PIT	3-3	0.468	4.039	13.222	6.448	2.489	0.959	0.398
WAS	1-5	0.438	0.143	0.784	0.338	0.130	0.051	0.018
STL	1-4	0.416	0.799	1.433	0.590	0.212	0.078	0.026
MIN	2-4	0.416	1.079	3.248	1.399	0.511	0.188	0.063
TEN	2-4	0.402	2.169	3.596	1.322	0.429	0.141	0.049
OAK	0-5	0.397	0.030	0.116	0.041	0.013	0.004	0.001
NYJ	1-6	0.376	0.462	0.561	0.176	0.052	0.016	0.005
TB	1-5	0.375	1.366	1.464	0.491	0.158	0.051	0.015
JAC	0-6	0.341	0.037	0.049	0.014	0.004	0.001	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]

2014 World Series Projection, October 17

San Francisco over Kansas City

World Series
SF 0-0 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
STL 1-4 SF

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	Win
SF	0.5363	47.95
KC	0.5193	46.84

Edit: Here's the real table. I accidentally used the October 16th numbers, when the Cardinals were still alive.

Team	Strength	Win
SF	0.5363	53.73
KC	0.5193	46.27

The Cardinals gave it a good effort, but the Giants just couldn't be stopped. Every time it looked like we had them, they'd come right back. Some might argue about whether it was their good hitting or our poor pitching and/or fielding that led to each comeback, but that's probably a silly argument that could go on about lots of games during the year.

Now the Giants will face another team that seems to be unstoppable, the Royals. Like I said yesterday, one of these teams will set the record for most wins in a single postseason (I'm not counting game 163 tiebreaks as postseason) with 12. I suppose I'll be rooting for my home-state team, the Royals.

2011 Allen and Ginter Discount Blaster

This box had been sitting in my unopened pack box for far too long. I picked it up for 11.99 maybe a year or more ago, whenever Target had them in their discount section.

2011 Allen and Ginter
#2 Ty Wigginton
#10 Miguel Cabrera
#22 Michael Bourn
#28 John Lindsey
#30 Hanley Ramirez
#31 Jimmy Rollins
#41 Carlos Santana
#51 Tim Collins

The base cards started off in a promising direction for my collection, with a one-time Cardinal, Ty Wigginton. But, that would be all I would get among the base cards. Let's see the rest of them anway.

2011 Allen and Ginter
#56 Scott Kazmir
#62 Alfonzo Soriano
#87 Colby Lewis
#97 Zach Britton
#118 Rafael Soriano
#124 Chad Billingsley
#149 Lars Anderson
#166 Geovany Soto

I didn't remember that Rafael Soriano also played for the Yankees, so at first I thought they put Alfonso in some weird pitcher-looking pose. Seeing his Cubs card made me realize what was going on, though.

2011 Allen and Ginter
#173 Mariano Rivera
#183 Mike Napoli
#205 Kendry Morales
#215 Andrew McCutchen
#254 Denard Span
#276 Desmond Jennings
#322 Trevor Cahill
#335 Jason Heyward

If I've read my online checklists correctly, those last 2 are among the short printed base cards, along with the next two. They don't seem all that short printed from this box, since they compose 1/7 of the set, and over 1/7 (4/26) of the base cards I received. Maybe I'm not accounting for something else in my math there.

2011 Allen and Ginter
#320 Jon Lester
#323 Orlando Hudson
Floating Fortresses #FF15 USS Cairo
Ginter Code Card
Animals in Peril #AP22 Sea Otter

The greatest threat to the Sea Otter? That'd be Floating Fortresses. I'm kidding...maybe...I don't really know why the otter is in peril. I do know the Otters were our local minor league hockey team many years ago.

2011 Allen and Ginter
Baseball Highlight Sketches
#BHS-10 Ryan Howard
#BHS-13 San Francisco Giants
Hometown Heroes
#HH2 Colby Rasmus
#HH15 Matt Holliday
#HH23 Dustin Pedroia
#HH24 Ryan Zimmerman
#HH34 Chipper Jones
#HH47 Phil Hughes

I have a few of these Hometown Heroes cards, but luckily neither of the Cardinals I pulled, Matt Holliday and Colby Rasmus. The sketches aren't bad either, one of them featuring native St. Louisan Ryan Howard. There was talk about the Cardinals trying to sign him in lieu of Pujols back when the contract talks were going on, but I think they came out ahead overall by not getting either one.

2011 Allen and Ginter
Mini #152 Ryan Zimmerman
Mini #308 Jhonny Peralta
Mini Allen and Ginter Back #254 Denard Span
Mini Allen and Ginter Back #264 Adam Jones
Mini Black Border #348 Russell Martin
Portraits of Penultimacy #PP1 Antonio Meucci
Step Right Up #SRU3 Fire Eating
Code Card #201 Andrew Romine
Ascent of Man #AOM15 Catarrhini
Minds That Made The Future #MMF9 Elisha Otis
Checklists #4

Here we have the big draw of Allen and Ginter, the minis. I got 2 regular and 2 A&G backs, and one black border, so none of the extreme low-numbered parallels. I almost filed that Andrew Romine with the base cards, but it has the Ginter Code symbols on its corners.

2011 Allen and Ginter
Framed Relics #AGR-FH Felix Hernandez

Finally, the prize of the pack is this Felix Hernandez Relic. He'll definitely be in the running for the AL Cy Young this year, having won the ERA title, even if it was on questionable retroactive scoring decisions. I think the biggest knock against him will be that the voters for these awards like to see a guy make the postseason, and the Mariners clearly did not this year, while Max Scherzer's Tigers did.

I give this discount box a 35 stars out of 37, which doesn't really mean much of anything. A retail relic is always a nice surprise, and at 8 bucks off the original price, how can I go wrong?

2014 World Series Projection, October 16

San Francisco over Kansas City

World Series
TBD 0-0 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
STL 1-3 SF

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	WS	Win
SF	0.5363	89.24	47.95
KC	0.5193	100.00	46.84
STL	0.5119	10.76	5.20

Kansas City just looks unstoppable right now, and they finished off Baltimore in a 4-game sweep. The Giants also appear too tough for this year's Cardinals, but there's still (hopefully) 3 games to play.

So far KC is 8-0 this postseason. No team has ever gone 12-0 in the postseason, which is a silly thing to say, because there has only been the opportunity to even play 12 games for 2 previous years. Still, if San Francisco beats St. Louis, and we have another all-wildcard World Series, someone will set a record with 12 postseason wins. If a division winner wins the World Series, they only need 11 wins, due to their lack of a Wild Card play-in game. The only other time the wildcard vs. wildcard series happened - Anaheim over San Francisco in 2002 - there was no play-in game, so the Angels won 11 just like any other team would have.

2014 World Series Projection, October 15

San Francisco over Kansas City

League Championship Series
KC 3-0 BAL
STL 1-2 SF

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	WS	Win
BAL	0.5783	9.79	5.93
SF	0.5363	72.32	37.94
KC	0.5193	90.21	43.08
STL	0.5119	27.68	13.05

We're back to that weird situation where Kansas City is the overall World Series favorite (I didn't think I'd be typing that in my lifetime), but in the most likely matchup, vs San Francisco, they would not be favored.

I used to complain about the off days that weren't travel days sometimes inserted into the LDS and LCS so that there would be no days without baseball, and it only slightly appeased me to have them actually start one league a day later so the off days could at least be considered travel days, but after Monday's rainout in Kansas City, I learned that I prefer the offset format, so that there's baseball every day, at least through the first part of the series and until one team wins one. But for now, games 3, 4, and 5 of the LCSs will be played on the same days. It appears that - if Baltimore can win the next two - there will not be an off day when the ALCS goes back to Baltimore, so there may still be baseball on the NL's travel day.

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 6, Final

San Diego over Philadelphia

These divisional games on Mondays and Thursdays make my posts less interesting. The AFC was relatively unaffected, and only the NFC East would have much of a change due to tiebreakers against common opponents. But, in the NFC West, the defending Superbowl champs, Seattle, are now the third most likely team to win the division at 26.6%, behind Arizona at 41.5%, and San Francisco at 31.0%. The Rams are basically out of it, with about an 0.8% chance of pulling off a division win.

I should note that Jacksonville's 0.000% chance of winning the Superbowl isn't actually 0, but it is low enough to round to that. The exact value today is 0.000319%, if you're not into significant figures.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SD	5-1	0.633	60.179	87.085	71.738	41.328	23.469	13.627
BAL	4-2	0.624	52.327	73.701	55.615	31.106	17.033	9.722
DET	4-2	0.590	53.210	72.875	55.295	30.525	16.554	8.372
IND	4-2	0.586	78.958	83.724	59.572	30.634	15.376	8.183
PHI	5-1	0.586	51.299	80.240	62.812	34.215	18.523	9.278
DEN	4-1	0.575	34.421	72.830	51.483	25.415	12.592	6.558
DAL	5-1	0.572	44.260	79.357	60.373	31.764	16.689	8.140
GB	4-2	0.558	36.866	57.760	39.376	20.137	10.215	4.837
CIN	3-1-1	0.539	26.783	53.036	34.386	15.772	7.125	3.454
NE	4-2	0.539	53.820	60.379	36.327	16.517	7.440	3.609
SF	4-2	0.538	31.041	53.808	35.895	17.484	8.415	3.818
KC	2-3	0.538	5.370	21.665	12.118	5.498	2.520	1.217
SEA	3-2	0.538	26.637	45.389	29.963	14.577	7.015	3.175
CLE	3-2	0.535	16.858	38.427	23.349	10.611	4.761	2.290
HOU	3-3	0.527	18.845	35.294	19.719	8.761	3.877	1.831
ARI	4-1	0.521	41.523	62.259	43.084	20.307	9.416	4.109
BUF	3-3	0.504	28.139	34.009	16.930	7.048	2.936	1.321
CHI	3-3	0.498	8.855	20.928	11.873	5.320	2.377	0.985
MIA	2-3	0.492	16.363	20.793	10.156	4.130	1.683	0.737
ATL	2-4	0.490	19.800	21.063	9.855	4.243	1.831	0.744
NYG	3-3	0.490	4.297	17.090	9.149	3.973	1.744	0.707
NO	2-3	0.485	24.859	27.032	13.037	5.550	2.368	0.951
CAR	3-2-1	0.470	53.974	55.289	26.477	10.898	4.485	1.737
PIT	3-3	0.468	4.031	13.373	6.590	2.542	0.982	0.407
WAS	1-5	0.438	0.144	0.783	0.338	0.130	0.051	0.018
STL	1-4	0.416	0.799	1.429	0.588	0.212	0.078	0.026
MIN	2-4	0.416	1.069	3.234	1.394	0.509	0.188	0.064
TEN	2-4	0.402	2.161	3.631	1.348	0.438	0.144	0.051
OAK	0-5	0.397	0.030	0.119	0.042	0.013	0.004	0.001
NYJ	1-5	0.381	1.679	1.885	0.614	0.183	0.055	0.018
TB	1-5	0.375	1.367	1.464	0.491	0.158	0.051	0.015
JAC	0-6	0.341	0.036	0.049	0.014	0.004	0.001	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]