2013-11-18

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Seattle over Kansas City

Denver managed to beat KC, and is actually now favored to win the AFC West. However, Kansas City's slightly higher strength has them positioned as slightly likelier to represent the AFC in the Superbowl. The rematch in Kansas City in 2 weeks could make the division race tip far in Denver's favor, or put it back to tossup status.

If you care about such things, you may notice I don't have Atlanta or Tampa Bay with any chance of winning their division. That's because they are officially eliminated. This is easy enough to see by trying to construct a scenario in which either team would win. First, New Orleans would need to finish 0-6 to go 8-8. However, two of those games would be against Carolina, pushing them to at least 8-3. They'd have to go 0-5 in the other games to also go 8-8. From there, it's all about the tiebreakers. All NFC South teams would be 1-1 against each other except Carolina having swept New Orleans. In a 3 way tie involving Carolina, New Orleans, and either Tampa Bay or Atlanta, Carolina's Head-to-head record would be 3-1, with New Orleans at 1-3, and Atlanta/Tampa Bay at 2-2, thus handing Carolina the division. The same logic applies to a 4-way tie, where Carolina would be 4-2 head-to-head, New Orleans would be 2-4, and both Tampa Bay and Atlanta would be 3-3. But, either team is still alive in the Wildcard race. Also, Jacksonville isn't ruled out of winning it all, since they have some small positive chance of making the Superbowl. It just didn't happen in 100,000,000 simulations.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA10-10.73097.09399.93998.79561.74535.91121.112
CAR6-30.70635.36589.16870.54539.59920.99411.756
KC9-10.70544.26099.97578.87646.69327.68314.393
NO8-20.68664.63597.94285.45348.05123.82612.769
DEN9-10.68355.74099.95682.00545.97725.84512.796
SF6-40.6432.78464.59840.38417.1127.8383.833
CIN7-40.64190.53594.53065.38933.90816.3297.337
NE7-20.61695.57598.13873.94636.45016.3176.909
IND7-30.56398.09198.54961.32725.73610.1803.783
GB5-50.53620.89023.9689.9913.2661.1460.437
PHI6-50.53144.95850.79120.9676.8252.3690.890
DAL5-50.52852.62754.78921.0856.8002.3730.888
CHI6-40.52629.63639.72117.3375.5411.8840.701
DET6-40.52249.47259.12026.6088.5562.8561.052
SD4-60.5130.0003.5011.4320.4850.1750.057
ARI6-40.5040.12116.3827.7732.2670.7420.261
TEN4-60.5021.86915.5896.1641.9820.7060.224
BAL4-60.4914.60314.6525.5241.7900.6210.191
STL4-60.4790.0020.8470.3730.0990.0310.010
MIA5-50.4743.17136.23813.9714.2141.3850.408
PIT4-60.4413.17410.8043.4800.9700.2960.079
BUF4-70.4260.4883.9231.2390.3180.0930.024
CLE4-60.4021.6898.9822.6980.6610.1790.043
WAS3-70.3940.1960.2370.0650.0140.0030.001
TB2-80.393-0.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
OAK4-60.3930.0004.2901.2700.2970.0780.018
NYG4-60.3722.2192.4930.6240.1240.0280.007
MIN2-80.3720.0020.0020.0010.0000.0000.000
ATL2-80.363-0.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
HOU2-80.3460.0390.1160.0270.0050.0010.000
NYJ5-50.3380.76610.7562.6510.5130.1130.022
JAC1-90.2260.0010.0010.0000.0000.000-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]

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