Tenets of Wilson: 2013-11

2013-11-29

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 13, Thursday

Seattle over Denver

Dallas, Detroit, and Baltimore all won their home Thanksgiving games, as I picked in my pick 'em pool. I'd guess most people did as well, though, except those who see "Steelers" and think of the dominant teams of the past. Even so, with the AFC's current records, 5-7 Pittsburgh has an 8.6% shot of still getting a wildcard.

No team has yet lowered their odds of missing the playoffs to under 1 in 10,000, but both Kansas City and Denver are close. whoever wins Sunday will be pushed near or past that mark.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	10-1	0.730	94.670	99.814	98.000	57.591	31.779	18.895
CAR	8-3	0.730	39.518	96.234	78.412	44.904	24.436	14.528
NO	9-2	0.700	60.482	98.543	85.363	45.888	22.888	12.813
KC	9-2	0.689	38.807	99.931	78.007	44.728	25.754	12.481
SF	7-4	0.685	4.966	71.641	47.376	21.998	10.547	5.715
DEN	9-2	0.683	61.190	99.903	85.358	48.931	27.831	13.306
CIN	7-4	0.641	86.629	92.535	65.658	34.178	16.769	7.237
NE	8-3	0.612	97.778	99.042	81.624	40.833	18.414	7.405
DET	7-5	0.571	76.744	78.077	31.124	10.770	3.948	1.667
ARI	7-4	0.567	0.358	21.408	11.224	3.805	1.367	0.571
DAL	7-5	0.546	75.544	77.003	28.069	9.052	3.141	1.251
BAL	6-6	0.533	11.287	36.192	15.616	5.829	2.270	0.744
PHI	6-5	0.531	24.411	30.153	11.513	3.550	1.171	0.449
STL	5-6	0.522	0.005	1.245	0.580	0.170	0.054	0.020
SD	5-6	0.518	0.003	8.930	3.848	1.369	0.509	0.160
TEN	5-6	0.510	6.954	24.899	10.140	3.526	1.290	0.398
IND	7-4	0.506	93.035	94.479	43.897	15.970	5.673	1.731
CHI	6-5	0.490	17.833	20.013	6.574	1.804	0.533	0.185
GB	5-6-1	0.479	5.422	5.798	1.748	0.465	0.135	0.046
PIT	5-7	0.469	1.972	8.594	3.080	0.949	0.319	0.088
MIA	5-6	0.465	1.796	26.674	10.247	3.101	1.014	0.276
BUF	4-7	0.426	0.301	3.849	1.272	0.335	0.100	0.024
TB	3-8	0.399	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
OAK	4-8	0.372	-	0.393	0.111	0.027	0.007	0.001
MIN	2-8-1	0.371	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
CLE	4-7	0.369	0.111	1.867	0.530	0.117	0.029	0.006
NYG	4-7	0.366	0.041	0.066	0.017	0.003	0.001	0.000
WAS	3-8	0.357	0.003	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
ATL	2-9	0.351	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-9	0.325	0.006	0.008	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	5-6	0.303	0.125	2.697	0.610	0.108	0.021	0.003
JAC	2-9	0.209	0.004	0.006	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]

2013-11-28

eBay Wins #91

My two cents was worth 2 Nelson Cruz minor league cards, so here's the front and the back, in one scan.

2002 Just Prospects #10 Nelson Cruz

I bought these two cards while he was serving his suspension, which may explain the lack of other bids. We'll see how Nelson does next year, (ostensibly) cleaned up from PEDs.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	2488
Total Spent	$43.73
Per Card	1.758 cents

2013-11-26

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 12, Final

Seattle over Denver

I was so conflicted last night. On one hand, I can't root for division rival San Francisco, especially with the Rams currently in 4th. It's literally impossible to win a wildcard spot finishing in 4th. However, the Rams get Washington's first round pick next year, so I want them to do as poorly as possible. It seems unlikely we'll contend for the division - it would take a 5-0 finish and an 0-5 finish from Seattle - so I think I'm happy with the result.

Also, despite all my scenario-generating, Atlanta is finally eliminated. New Orleans and Carolina already have more than Atlanta's maximum 7 wins, and San Francisco and Arizona, both with 7, will play each other one more time, so at least one of them will have at least 8 wins (or 7 wins and a tie). Combined with Seattle's 10 wins, that means at least 2 NFC West and 2 NFC South teams - and therefore at least 2 non-division winners - will finish ahead of Atlanta, eliminating them.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	10-1	0.730	94.669	99.822	98.199	57.854	31.927	18.982
CAR	8-3	0.730	39.538	96.375	79.671	45.852	24.942	14.824
NO	9-2	0.700	60.462	98.703	86.238	46.579	23.223	12.996
KC	9-2	0.689	38.823	99.928	78.087	44.813	25.812	12.490
SF	7-4	0.685	4.967	72.991	49.978	23.214	11.121	6.024
DEN	9-2	0.683	61.174	99.897	85.386	49.011	27.886	13.307
CIN	7-4	0.641	86.793	92.679	66.018	34.385	16.871	7.267
NE	8-3	0.612	97.804	99.145	82.008	41.071	18.523	7.435
ARI	7-4	0.567	0.358	21.864	12.010	4.069	1.461	0.610
GB	5-5-1	0.536	27.524	28.178	9.986	3.127	1.052	0.409
DAL	6-5	0.534	64.606	65.860	23.208	7.232	2.432	0.940
PHI	6-5	0.531	35.239	39.460	14.614	4.514	1.492	0.572
BAL	5-6	0.528	7.245	23.446	9.984	3.676	1.420	0.459
STL	5-6	0.522	0.005	1.340	0.664	0.196	0.063	0.023
SD	5-6	0.518	0.003	8.638	3.733	1.328	0.494	0.156
DET	6-5	0.517	46.341	47.907	16.603	4.940	1.572	0.582
TEN	5-6	0.510	6.957	26.298	10.748	3.730	1.366	0.421
IND	7-4	0.506	93.033	94.462	44.035	16.021	5.693	1.734
CHI	6-5	0.490	26.134	27.313	8.787	2.416	0.715	0.247
PIT	5-6	0.473	5.834	18.765	6.768	2.146	0.724	0.201
MIA	5-6	0.465	1.774	27.703	10.645	3.220	1.053	0.286
BUF	4-7	0.426	0.299	3.367	1.112	0.292	0.087	0.021
TB	3-8	0.399	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
OAK	4-7	0.384	-	1.128	0.336	0.083	0.021	0.004
MIN	2-8-1	0.371	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
CLE	4-7	0.369	0.128	1.912	0.543	0.120	0.030	0.006
NYG	4-7	0.366	0.141	0.172	0.039	0.007	0.001	0.000
WAS	3-8	0.357	0.015	0.015	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000
ATL	2-9	0.351	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-9	0.325	0.006	0.008	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	5-6	0.303	0.122	2.618	0.594	0.105	0.021	0.003
JAC	2-9	0.209	0.004	0.006	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

2013-11-25

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 12, Sunday

Seattle over Denver

Denver has taken over the AFC favorite position from Kansas City, in a week where both teams lost. Kansas City's loss was a little bigger, and so dragged them down in strength. Denver has a bit easier schedule remaining, and most importantly, currently holds the tiebreaker over Kansas City. Obviously that advantage could be evened back out next weekend, in Denver and Kansas City's rematch.

I'm still showing no chances of Atlanta making the playoffs, and it's still technically possible. I won't go through the exact scenario this time, but when I simulated a few thousand times that Atlanta would go 7-9 and all remaining AFC-NFC games would go the way of the AFC team, they did manage to make the playoffs a few times. It just didn't happen in my 500 million simulations today. Oakland is in fact eliminated from the AFC West, because Denver and/or Kansas City will be uncatchable by the 7-loss Raiders after this weekend.

It's looking like the NFC is going to be tougher than the AFC this year. For a point of comparison, one of my good friends is a Steelers fan, and his team shows an 18.8% chance of making the playoffs at 5-6, whereas my Rams have a 1.87% chance, also at 5-6. Tiebreaker advantages may account for some of that difference, but overall it's because it's just not going to take as good of a record to be the AFC wildcard team as it will in the NFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	10-1	0.730	96.642	99.867	98.805	60.309	33.468	19.897
CAR	8-3	0.730	39.532	97.254	80.317	46.557	25.723	15.289
NO	9-2	0.700	60.468	98.961	86.431	47.527	23.980	13.420
KC	9-2	0.689	38.237	99.920	77.877	44.666	25.726	12.540
DEN	9-2	0.683	61.759	99.897	85.572	49.144	27.963	13.445
SF	6-4	0.643	2.949	59.469	37.917	15.784	6.841	3.391
CIN	7-4	0.641	86.797	92.681	66.031	34.386	16.873	7.329
NE	8-3	0.612	97.807	99.146	82.028	41.083	18.530	7.506
ARI	7-4	0.567	0.403	29.078	15.950	5.388	1.935	0.809
GB	5-5-1	0.536	27.526	28.712	10.848	3.397	1.154	0.448
DAL	6-5	0.534	63.545	65.557	24.229	7.551	2.573	0.995
PHI	6-5	0.531	36.195	42.014	16.546	5.106	1.703	0.653
BAL	5-6	0.528	7.243	23.446	9.993	3.680	1.422	0.464
STL	5-6	0.522	0.007	1.872	0.928	0.273	0.087	0.033
SD	5-6	0.518	0.004	8.640	3.734	1.328	0.494	0.157
DET	6-5	0.517	46.344	48.741	18.168	5.404	1.732	0.641
TEN	5-6	0.510	6.956	26.311	10.751	3.732	1.367	0.426
IND	7-4	0.506	93.034	94.450	44.018	16.011	5.690	1.752
CHI	6-5	0.490	26.129	28.124	9.770	2.687	0.801	0.277
PIT	5-6	0.473	5.832	18.771	6.772	2.149	0.725	0.204
MIA	5-6	0.465	1.773	27.701	10.640	3.220	1.052	0.289
BUF	4-7	0.426	0.298	3.368	1.112	0.293	0.087	0.021
TB	3-8	0.399	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
WAS	3-7	0.394	0.130	0.170	0.045	0.009	0.002	0.001
OAK	4-7	0.384	-	1.126	0.334	0.082	0.021	0.004
MIN	2-8-1	0.371	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
CLE	4-7	0.369	0.128	1.912	0.543	0.120	0.030	0.006
NYG	4-7	0.366	0.129	0.179	0.044	0.008	0.002	0.000
ATL	2-9	0.351	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-9	0.325	0.006	0.008	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	5-6	0.303	0.122	2.618	0.593	0.105	0.021	0.003
JAC	2-9	0.209	0.004	0.006	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

2013-11-24

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

Florida State and Alabama remained 1-2 this week, while Auburn slid from #3 to #7 in their bye.

Ohio State thus gained the spot vacated by Auburn, and Clemson was passed by Northern Illinois and Missouri on their wins and Clemson's non-FBS win. I'd say Missouri still has a shadow of a chance of being my #1 team, but it would take beating Texas A&M, Alabama, and then making and winning the BCS Championship game

The big surprise losses of the week were Baylor and Oregon, though I had Baylor-OK State closer than the BCS rankings did. Baylor lost 7 spots, and Oregon lost 9.

1	Florida State	11-0
2	Alabama	11-0
3	Ohio State	11-0
4	Northern Illinois	11-0
5	Missouri	10-1
6	Clemson	10-1
7	Auburn	10-1
8	Oklahoma State	10-1
9	Arizona State	9-2
10	Michigan State	10-1
11	Fresno State	10-0
12	South Carolina	9-2
13	Stanford	9-2
14	Baylor	9-1
15	USC	9-3
16	Wisconsin	9-2
17	Louisville	10-1
18	Oregon	9-2
19	Duke	9-2
20	Oklahoma	9-2
21	UCF	9-1
22	Texas A&M	8-3
23	LSU	8-3
24	Notre Dame	8-3
25	East Carolina	9-2
26	Ball State	9-2
27	UCLA	8-3
28	Nebraska	8-3
29	Minnesota	8-3
30	Miami (FL)	8-3
31	Virginia Tech	7-4
32	Cincinnati	9-2
33	Georgia	7-4
34	Ole Miss	7-4
35	Arizona	7-4
36	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-2
37	Toledo	7-4
38	Washington	7-4
39	Brigham Young	7-4
40	Georgia Tech	7-4
41	Michigan	7-4
42	Iowa	7-4
43	Boston College	7-4
44	Rice	8-3
45	Houston	7-4
46	Texas	7-3
47	Buffalo	8-3
48	Bowling Green	8-3
49	Marshall	8-3
50	Texas Tech	7-4
51	Navy	7-4
52	Boise State	7-4
53	Vanderbilt	7-4
54	North Carolina	6-5
55	Washington State	6-5
56	San Diego State	7-4
57	Pittsburgh	6-5
58	Tulane	7-4
59	North Texas	7-4
60	Kansas State	6-5
61	Arkansas State	7-4
62	Oregon State	6-5
63	Middle Tennessee	7-4
64	Utah State	7-4
65	Western Kentucky	7-4
66	Penn State	6-5
67	UTSA	6-5
68	Mississippi State	5-6
69	Maryland	6-5
70	UNLV	6-5
71	Ohio	6-5
72	Syracuse	5-6
73	Texas State	6-5
74	Rutgers	5-5
75	Colorado State	6-6
76	Utah	4-7
77	San Jose State	5-6
78	Colorado	4-7
79	Florida Atlantic	5-6
80	Indiana	4-7
81	Southern Methodist	5-5
82	Tennessee	4-7
83	Northwestern	4-7
84	Central Michigan	5-6
85	Louisiana-Monroe	5-6
86	Florida	4-7
87	Troy	5-6
88	TCU	4-7
89	Illinois	4-7
90	West Virginia	4-7
91	Wake Forest	4-7
92	South Alabama	4-6
93	Akron	4-7
94	Wyoming	5-6
95	Nevada	4-7
96	Memphis	3-7
97	Kent State	4-8
98	Arkansas	3-8
99	North Carolina State	3-8
100	Kansas	3-8
101	Tulsa	3-8
102	Virginia	2-9
103	Louisiana Tech	4-7
104	Army	3-7
105	South Florida	2-8
106	Kentucky	2-9
107	Iowa State	2-9
108	New Mexico	3-8
109	UAB	2-9
110	Eastern Michigan	2-9
111	Purdue	1-10
112	California	1-11
113	Air Force	2-9
114	Idaho	1-10
115	Connecticut	1-9
116	UTEP	2-9
117	New Mexico State	1-10
118	Temple	1-10
119	Massachusetts	1-10
120	Florida International	1-10
121	Western Michigan	1-10
122	Hawaii	0-11
123	Southern Miss	0-11
124	Miami (OH)	0-11

2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12

2013-11-22

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 12, Thursday

Seattle over Kansas City

With a win over Atlanta, New Orleans is now the 2nd likeliest NFC Superbowl representative, displacing Carolina at least until they play Sunday. Atlanta would appear to be out of the playoff hunt, but I'm pretty sure they are not. I ran 250 Million season simulations, and they didn't make the playoffs in any of them. However, with 93 games left to play, there are way more than 250 Million possible outcomes.

When I want to double check whether a team is truly eliminated or has some chance of making the playoffs, I have two options. One is to figure out their best-case scenarios by hand, if they are few. However, at this point in the season, there are way too many games to determine by hand exactly what's best in all games for a given team. For example, should Atlanta root for 4-6 St. Louis or 6-4 Chicago this week? It's a little hard to say, so I go with plan B. I make up a fake set of games and simulate those a few thousand times, which takes under a second. First I have Atlanta win all of their remaining games. Then, I have that team's conference-mates lose all of their remaining games against the other conference. This serves to weaken the pool of wildcard teams. It is possible I would ruin a multi-team tiebreak scenario by forcing these losses (i.e. if an Atlanta vs Tampa Bay tie favors Tampa Bay, but an Atlanta, Tampa Bay, San Francisco tie favors Atlanta), but I'm just looking for one case where they do make the playoffs. In this case, pushing Atlanta to 7-9 and giving the AFC all remaining cross-conference games did give them about an 0.003% chance of making the playoffs. So while I won't say they're out yet, it's not looking good.

If no playoff appearances were shown, I could extend my system. At 7-9, Atlanta's not catching Seattle or New Orleans, the two NFC teams with 8 or more wins. So, without harming Atlanta, I can simulate them winning the rest of their NFC games. That pushes Minnesota and Tampa to 10 losses each, behind Atlanta. I can then simulate those two teams winning the rest of their NFC games to go 6-10 each. In this case, that pushes Atlanta to a 0.84% chance of getting a wildcard spot.

From here, it becomes more art than science. I've now given the Rams 9 losses, since they play New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Seattle in the last 3 weeks of the season. Atlanta beat the Rams, so I can probably let them go 7-9. A 3-way or 4-way tiebreaker could make this unsafe though, so I have to be prepared to roll back this scenario and try others. In this case it worked, boosting Atlanta to a 4.88% chance of the wildcard.

I've already handed the NFC West and NFC South to Seattle and New Orleans, but the other two division winners won't be in direct competition with Atlanta either. Seeing Dallas at 5-6 with 5 games to go, I'll give them 5 wins to put them at 10-6, and more importantly, many losses to their conference opponents. That puts Atlanta at 6.38%, and Washington at 3-10, and lets me safely push them to 6-10. That has the effect of pushing Atlanta all the way to 26.3%, and New York to 4-11. I tried having them win their remaining game against Detroit, but that actually lowered Atlanta's chances. The reason for that is that the NFC North race is very close, and Detroit needs to win it in the situation I've created so far. By having them win the North at 9-7, Green Bay acquires its 10th loss and can beat Chicago, pushing them to 6-9. Since I now show Chicago with no playoff chances, I allow them to go 7-9 and beat Philadelphia. Philadelphia is now showing no playoff chances at 6-9, so I allow them to go 7-9 and beat Arizona. Atlanta has clinched a spot, and I've chosen a winner every NFC game. It may not be quite that hard for them to make it, but I'll bet it's close. Ultimately that scenario has 5 7-9 teams in the NFC, and Carolina and Atlanta get the Wildcard spots.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	10-1	0.730	97.000	99.925	98.730	60.994	34.434	20.266
CAR	7-3	0.717	34.172	94.576	75.424	42.219	22.723	13.016
KC	9-1	0.704	44.167	99.976	78.970	46.823	27.850	14.225
NO	9-2	0.700	65.828	99.166	87.838	49.781	25.325	14.021
DEN	9-1	0.683	55.832	99.957	82.184	46.184	26.047	12.655
SF	6-4	0.643	2.873	63.788	40.035	16.733	7.411	3.630
CIN	7-4	0.641	90.484	94.576	68.114	35.827	17.204	7.566
NE	7-3	0.610	93.663	97.072	67.172	32.513	14.417	5.887
IND	7-3	0.563	98.091	98.556	64.168	27.141	10.724	3.896
GB	5-5	0.536	21.036	23.576	9.518	3.020	1.036	0.396
PHI	6-5	0.531	44.959	49.961	19.507	6.129	2.087	0.788
DAL	5-5	0.528	52.620	54.448	19.759	6.168	2.119	0.795
CHI	6-4	0.526	29.593	38.446	16.242	5.019	1.662	0.620
DET	6-4	0.522	49.370	58.093	25.017	7.734	2.525	0.933
SD	4-6	0.513	0.000	3.555	1.464	0.492	0.180	0.058
ARI	6-4	0.504	0.126	14.569	6.958	1.990	0.625	0.221
TEN	4-6	0.502	1.869	15.792	6.322	2.022	0.724	0.224
BAL	4-6	0.491	4.639	14.883	5.728	1.862	0.649	0.195
STL	4-6	0.479	0.002	0.742	0.329	0.086	0.025	0.008
MIA	5-5	0.474	4.453	36.186	14.220	4.300	1.420	0.407
PIT	4-6	0.441	3.177	10.825	3.530	0.984	0.302	0.079
BUF	4-7	0.426	0.768	4.204	1.322	0.340	0.100	0.025
CLE	4-6	0.402	1.700	9.192	2.817	0.690	0.188	0.044
WAS	3-7	0.394	0.201	0.240	0.062	0.013	0.003	0.001
TB	2-8	0.393	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
OAK	4-6	0.393	0.000	4.343	1.297	0.301	0.079	0.018
NYG	4-6	0.372	2.220	2.468	0.581	0.112	0.025	0.006
MIN	2-8	0.372	0.002	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
ATL	2-9	0.351	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-8	0.346	0.039	0.119	0.028	0.006	0.001	0.000
NYJ	5-5	0.338	1.116	10.762	2.661	0.514	0.114	0.021
JAC	1-9	0.226	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

2013-11-21

A Trevor Rosenthal Autographed Baseball

Last Saturday, Trevor Rosenthal made an appearance at a local car dealership, and so did I.

I showed up 90 minutes early on advice of an employee of the dealership, and wound up about 15th in line. Based on the eventual length of the line, I could have perhaps pushed it until about 15 minutes early and still made it, but he was only signing for an hour and I didn't want to miss my shot like I did with David Eckstein. On the plus side, I got my autograph after about 5 minutes, gave Fredbird a high five, and went about my day.

Trevor Rosenthal
26

This makes 2 Cardinals closers of whom I now have autograph balls. Hopefully one day I can add a Dennis Eckersley, and then a Bruce Sutter for good measure.

2013-11-19

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 11, Final

Seattle over Kansas City

Carolina's record is finally catching up to their strength, and they're getting closer to challenging Seattle for the NFC favorite. 2 important games for them will be the 2 against New Orleans to try to secure a division championship, and they'll have to finish with a better record than Seattle if they want home field advantage, since they lost to them 12-7 in Week 1.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	10-1	0.730	97.098	99.929	98.785	61.248	35.091	20.655
CAR	7-3	0.717	41.709	94.846	77.508	44.861	24.252	13.892
KC	9-1	0.705	44.169	99.976	78.968	46.827	27.852	14.348
NO	8-2	0.686	58.291	97.829	83.622	45.599	22.478	12.063
DEN	9-1	0.683	55.830	99.957	82.183	46.182	26.045	12.768
SF	6-4	0.643	2.779	63.720	39.895	16.783	7.549	3.695
CIN	7-4	0.641	90.491	94.578	68.122	35.831	17.209	7.647
NE	7-3	0.610	93.674	97.080	67.172	32.511	14.417	5.949
IND	7-3	0.563	98.092	98.557	64.173	27.141	10.720	3.938
GB	5-5	0.536	20.891	23.498	9.595	3.095	1.073	0.411
PHI	6-5	0.531	44.962	50.210	20.055	6.414	2.204	0.832
DAL	5-5	0.528	52.625	54.492	20.239	6.427	2.227	0.836
CHI	6-4	0.526	29.634	38.731	16.561	5.208	1.746	0.651
DET	6-4	0.522	49.473	58.412	25.674	8.104	2.671	0.985
SD	4-6	0.513	0.001	3.551	1.463	0.492	0.180	0.058
ARI	6-4	0.504	0.121	14.805	7.047	2.037	0.651	0.230
TEN	4-6	0.502	1.868	15.778	6.315	2.020	0.724	0.226
BAL	4-6	0.491	4.637	14.889	5.731	1.862	0.648	0.197
STL	4-6	0.479	0.002	0.814	0.360	0.095	0.029	0.009
MIA	5-5	0.474	4.453	36.278	14.250	4.308	1.421	0.413
PIT	4-6	0.441	3.172	10.817	3.526	0.983	0.303	0.080
BUF	4-7	0.426	0.758	4.140	1.301	0.334	0.099	0.025
CLE	4-6	0.402	1.699	9.184	2.814	0.690	0.188	0.044
WAS	3-7	0.394	0.196	0.235	0.062	0.013	0.003	0.001
TB	2-8	0.393	-	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
OAK	4-6	0.393	0.000	4.334	1.294	0.300	0.079	0.018
NYG	4-6	0.372	2.217	2.474	0.596	0.117	0.026	0.006
MIN	2-8	0.372	0.002	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
ATL	2-8	0.363	-	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
HOU	2-8	0.346	0.039	0.119	0.029	0.006	0.001	0.000
NYJ	5-5	0.338	1.115	10.762	2.659	0.513	0.114	0.021
JAC	1-9	0.226	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

2013-11-18

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Seattle over Kansas City

Denver managed to beat KC, and is actually now favored to win the AFC West. However, Kansas City's slightly higher strength has them positioned as slightly likelier to represent the AFC in the Superbowl. The rematch in Kansas City in 2 weeks could make the division race tip far in Denver's favor, or put it back to tossup status.

If you care about such things, you may notice I don't have Atlanta or Tampa Bay with any chance of winning their division. That's because they are officially eliminated. This is easy enough to see by trying to construct a scenario in which either team would win. First, New Orleans would need to finish 0-6 to go 8-8. However, two of those games would be against Carolina, pushing them to at least 8-3. They'd have to go 0-5 in the other games to also go 8-8. From there, it's all about the tiebreakers. All NFC South teams would be 1-1 against each other except Carolina having swept New Orleans. In a 3 way tie involving Carolina, New Orleans, and either Tampa Bay or Atlanta, Carolina's Head-to-head record would be 3-1, with New Orleans at 1-3, and Atlanta/Tampa Bay at 2-2, thus handing Carolina the division. The same logic applies to a 4-way tie, where Carolina would be 4-2 head-to-head, New Orleans would be 2-4, and both Tampa Bay and Atlanta would be 3-3. But, either team is still alive in the Wildcard race. Also, Jacksonville isn't ruled out of winning it all, since they have some small positive chance of making the Superbowl. It just didn't happen in 100,000,000 simulations.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	10-1	0.730	97.093	99.939	98.795	61.745	35.911	21.112
CAR	6-3	0.706	35.365	89.168	70.545	39.599	20.994	11.756
KC	9-1	0.705	44.260	99.975	78.876	46.693	27.683	14.393
NO	8-2	0.686	64.635	97.942	85.453	48.051	23.826	12.769
DEN	9-1	0.683	55.740	99.956	82.005	45.977	25.845	12.796
SF	6-4	0.643	2.784	64.598	40.384	17.112	7.838	3.833
CIN	7-4	0.641	90.535	94.530	65.389	33.908	16.329	7.337
NE	7-2	0.616	95.575	98.138	73.946	36.450	16.317	6.909
IND	7-3	0.563	98.091	98.549	61.327	25.736	10.180	3.783
GB	5-5	0.536	20.890	23.968	9.991	3.266	1.146	0.437
PHI	6-5	0.531	44.958	50.791	20.967	6.825	2.369	0.890
DAL	5-5	0.528	52.627	54.789	21.085	6.800	2.373	0.888
CHI	6-4	0.526	29.636	39.721	17.337	5.541	1.884	0.701
DET	6-4	0.522	49.472	59.120	26.608	8.556	2.856	1.052
SD	4-6	0.513	0.000	3.501	1.432	0.485	0.175	0.057
ARI	6-4	0.504	0.121	16.382	7.773	2.267	0.742	0.261
TEN	4-6	0.502	1.869	15.589	6.164	1.982	0.706	0.224
BAL	4-6	0.491	4.603	14.652	5.524	1.790	0.621	0.191
STL	4-6	0.479	0.002	0.847	0.373	0.099	0.031	0.010
MIA	5-5	0.474	3.171	36.238	13.971	4.214	1.385	0.408
PIT	4-6	0.441	3.174	10.804	3.480	0.970	0.296	0.079
BUF	4-7	0.426	0.488	3.923	1.239	0.318	0.093	0.024
CLE	4-6	0.402	1.689	8.982	2.698	0.661	0.179	0.043
WAS	3-7	0.394	0.196	0.237	0.065	0.014	0.003	0.001
TB	2-8	0.393	-	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
OAK	4-6	0.393	0.000	4.290	1.270	0.297	0.078	0.018
NYG	4-6	0.372	2.219	2.493	0.624	0.124	0.028	0.007
MIN	2-8	0.372	0.002	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
ATL	2-8	0.363	-	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
HOU	2-8	0.346	0.039	0.116	0.027	0.005	0.001	0.000
NYJ	5-5	0.338	0.766	10.756	2.651	0.513	0.113	0.022
JAC	1-9	0.226	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

2013-11-17

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

This week, the top 4 teams in action won, so the top of the rankings stayed relatively stable. Idle Mizzou did drop from #3 to #8, and probably out of #1 contention barring some unexpected late-season losses.

Assuming Alabama can beat Chattanooga next week, Alabama-Auburn is shaping up to be the SEC West title game, if I understand my tiebreakers correctly. An Alabama win would make them 12-0 and the top team outright, whereas an Auburn win would tie them at 11-1 with Alabama, and the game would also be the Head-to-Head tiebreaker. Whichever way the game games, the winner should get a huge computer ranking boost from the BCS and my rankings, and another boost by defeating the SEC East champ as expected.

1	Florida State	10-0
2	Alabama	10-0
3	Auburn	10-1
4	Ohio State	10-0
5	Clemson	9-1
6	Northern Illinois	10-0
7	Baylor	9-0
8	Missouri	9-1
9	Oregon	9-1
10	Michigan State	9-1
11	Oklahoma State	9-1
12	Arizona State	8-2
13	Stanford	8-2
14	Fresno State	9-0
15	Texas A&M	8-2
16	Louisville	9-1
17	South Carolina	8-2
18	Ball State	9-2
19	UCLA	8-2
20	USC	8-3
21	Duke	8-2
22	Wisconsin	8-2
23	Oklahoma	8-2
24	Minnesota	8-2
25	UCF	8-1
26	Virginia Tech	7-4
27	Ole Miss	7-3
28	East Carolina	8-2
29	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-2
30	Brigham Young	7-3
31	LSU	7-3
32	Notre Dame	7-3
33	Toledo	7-3
34	Michigan	7-3
35	Houston	7-3
36	Nebraska	7-3
37	Texas	7-3
38	Miami (FL)	7-3
39	Georgia	6-4
40	Boise State	7-3
41	Texas Tech	7-4
42	Cincinnati	8-2
43	North Texas	7-3
44	Buffalo	7-3
44	Rice	7-3
46	Georgia Tech	6-4
47	Washington	6-4
48	Kansas State	6-4
49	Oregon State	6-4
50	Arizona	6-4
51	Iowa	6-4
52	Boston College	6-4
53	Bowling Green	7-3
54	Marshall	7-3
55	Penn State	6-4
56	Maryland	6-4
57	Vanderbilt	6-4
58	Navy	6-4
59	Arkansas State	6-4
60	Tulane	6-4
61	Washington State	5-5
62	San Diego State	6-4
63	Middle Tennessee	6-4
64	Ohio	6-4
65	Pittsburgh	5-5
66	North Carolina	5-5
67	Utah State	6-4
68	Syracuse	5-5
69	Western Kentucky	6-4
70	Texas State	6-4
71	Rutgers	5-4
72	Mississippi State	4-6
73	Colorado State	6-5
74	Utah	4-6
75	San Jose State	5-5
76	Louisiana-Monroe	5-5
77	UTSA	5-5
78	Colorado	4-6
79	UNLV	5-5
80	Tennessee	4-6
81	Indiana	4-6
82	Florida	4-6
83	Northwestern	4-6
84	Troy	5-6
85	West Virginia	4-7
86	TCU	4-7
87	Wake Forest	4-6
88	Florida Atlantic	4-6
89	Southern Methodist	4-5
90	Central Michigan	4-6
91	Akron	4-7
92	Nevada	4-7
93	Arkansas	3-7
94	Memphis	3-6
95	Illinois	3-7
96	Kansas	3-7
97	Wyoming	4-6
98	North Carolina State	3-7
99	South Alabama	3-6
100	Louisiana Tech	4-6
101	Virginia	2-8
102	Kent State	3-8
103	South Florida	2-7
104	Kentucky	2-8
105	Army	3-7
106	New Mexico	3-7
107	Eastern Michigan	2-8
108	Tulsa	2-8
109	UAB	2-8
110	Purdue	1-9
111	Iowa State	1-9
112	California	1-10
113	Air Force	2-8
114	Idaho	1-9
115	Temple	1-9
116	UTEP	2-8
117	New Mexico State	1-9
118	Massachusetts	1-9
119	Florida International	1-9
120	Connecticut	0-9
121	Western Michigan	1-10
122	Hawaii	0-10
123	Southern Miss	0-10
124	Miami (OH)	0-10

2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11

2013-11-16

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Kansas City over Seattle

Tennessee and Indianapolis were both coming off embarrassing home losses to bad teams (Jacksonville and St. Louis), but Indianapolis seemed to want it more and took down Tennessee. At 7-3 they're almost a lock to win the AFC South with 97.9%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	9-0	0.714	70.407	99.978	89.752	56.637	35.147	19.342
CAR	6-3	0.706	43.401	87.630	69.582	40.786	22.510	12.694
SEA	9-1	0.702	91.490	99.648	95.801	56.531	31.493	17.606
NO	7-2	0.676	56.598	91.452	75.426	41.600	21.155	11.190
DEN	8-1	0.664	29.582	99.407	71.641	37.460	20.456	10.096
SF	6-3	0.646	8.383	75.403	48.511	22.431	10.716	5.321
NE	7-2	0.616	94.537	97.546	76.121	39.265	17.582	7.774
CIN	6-4	0.604	73.980	83.073	52.202	24.767	11.022	4.736
IND	7-3	0.563	97.904	98.324	64.643	28.257	11.194	4.362
GB	5-4	0.560	29.783	38.505	18.844	7.004	2.743	1.123
DET	6-3	0.541	59.445	71.438	38.100	13.743	5.052	1.975
DAL	5-5	0.528	61.845	62.813	24.208	8.373	3.047	1.156
SD	4-5	0.520	0.011	12.366	5.403	1.811	0.699	0.245
CHI	5-4	0.520	10.767	20.351	9.004	2.988	1.062	0.395
PHI	5-5	0.515	34.299	37.923	14.858	4.943	1.729	0.635
TEN	4-6	0.502	1.920	14.406	6.021	1.906	0.703	0.235
BAL	4-5	0.498	11.972	24.225	9.878	3.327	1.197	0.395
STL	4-6	0.479	0.006	0.838	0.349	0.102	0.033	0.011
ARI	5-4	0.476	0.121	9.945	4.262	1.251	0.399	0.132
MIA	4-5	0.466	1.952	18.928	7.480	2.188	0.732	0.223
CLE	4-5	0.443	11.955	22.273	7.937	2.330	0.724	0.206
PIT	3-6	0.419	2.093	4.307	1.323	0.346	0.103	0.027
WAS	3-6	0.410	2.612	2.718	0.746	0.184	0.049	0.014
MIN	2-7	0.403	0.005	0.010	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000
OAK	3-6	0.383	0.000	2.043	0.618	0.136	0.036	0.009
BUF	3-7	0.382	0.193	1.111	0.320	0.071	0.019	0.005
ATL	2-7	0.381	0.001	0.028	0.009	0.002	0.001	0.000
NYJ	5-4	0.377	3.318	21.439	6.509	1.470	0.378	0.088
TB	1-8	0.361	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
HOU	2-7	0.355	0.170	0.565	0.151	0.031	0.008	0.002
NYG	3-6	0.352	1.244	1.299	0.296	0.060	0.013	0.003
JAC	1-8	0.251	0.006	0.011	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

2013-11-14

eBay Wins #90

A lot of the penny cards I pick up on eBay are late 80s to early 90s commons, so here's a refreshing sight:

2010 Bowman - 1992 Bowman Throwback
#BT1 Jimmy Rollins
#BT14 Troy Tulowitzki
#BT20 Michael Young
#BT50 Victor Martinez
#BT64 David Wright
#BT89 Tim Lincecum
#BT101 Ivan Rodriguez
#BT107 John Smoltz

2010 reprints of early 90s commons!

The last 2 cards are actual reprints from the 1992 Bowman set, with 1991 statistics on the back and everything. The photos are amazingly fuzzy compared to the other 6 cards with modern photos of modern players.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	2486
Total Spent	$43.71
Per Card	1.758 cents

2013-11-12

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 10, Final

Kansas City over Seattle

The Monday Night Football matchup wasn't quite the intrastate showdown the NFL probably hoped for, but hey, even the Rams got a Monday game this year. And Tampa Bay managed to win a game, and now show at least 1 chance in my 500 million simulations of winning the Superbowl.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	9-0	0.714	70.562	99.974	90.000	56.844	35.292	19.419
CAR	6-3	0.706	43.404	87.624	69.580	40.783	22.508	12.693
SEA	9-1	0.702	91.490	99.655	95.831	56.541	31.499	17.609
NO	7-2	0.675	56.595	91.453	75.425	41.602	21.153	11.190
DEN	8-1	0.664	29.427	99.311	72.015	37.696	20.580	10.157
SF	6-3	0.646	8.383	75.487	48.567	22.454	10.725	5.327
NE	7-2	0.616	94.534	97.399	78.358	40.658	18.189	8.040
CIN	6-4	0.604	74.047	82.516	53.002	25.246	11.203	4.816
GB	5-4	0.560	29.781	38.498	18.829	6.997	2.741	1.123
IND	6-3	0.558	84.420	88.917	54.730	23.452	9.248	3.564
DET	6-3	0.541	59.442	71.411	38.053	13.728	5.046	1.973
DAL	5-5	0.528	61.841	62.810	24.207	8.370	3.046	1.155
SD	4-5	0.520	0.011	11.577	5.143	1.715	0.662	0.232
CHI	5-4	0.520	10.772	20.305	8.982	2.981	1.059	0.394
PHI	5-5	0.515	34.301	37.927	14.862	4.946	1.731	0.636
TEN	4-5	0.509	15.258	29.903	13.202	4.587	1.669	0.566
BAL	4-5	0.498	11.944	23.217	9.737	3.310	1.186	0.391
STL	4-6	0.479	0.006	0.834	0.347	0.101	0.033	0.011
ARI	5-4	0.476	0.121	9.939	4.261	1.250	0.398	0.132
MIA	4-5	0.466	1.953	18.248	7.390	2.169	0.725	0.220
CLE	4-5	0.443	11.922	21.462	7.904	2.345	0.724	0.206
PIT	3-6	0.419	2.086	4.028	1.249	0.329	0.098	0.026
WAS	3-6	0.410	2.612	2.718	0.746	0.184	0.049	0.013
MIN	2-7	0.404	0.005	0.010	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000
OAK	3-6	0.383	0.000	1.888	0.580	0.127	0.034	0.008
BUF	3-7	0.382	0.193	0.959	0.278	0.062	0.017	0.004
ATL	2-7	0.381	0.001	0.029	0.009	0.002	0.001	0.000
NYJ	5-4	0.377	3.320	19.940	6.243	1.423	0.364	0.085
TB	1-8	0.361	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
HOU	2-7	0.355	0.311	0.644	0.167	0.035	0.009	0.002
NYG	3-6	0.352	1.246	1.301	0.297	0.060	0.013	0.003
JAC	1-8	0.251	0.011	0.015	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)