2022-01-24

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Divisional Sunday

Kansas City over Los Angeles

I debated with a friend of mine about whether divisional playoffs or the conference championships were the best weekend of football all year. I've always maintained it's the conference championships, but by the end of this weekend I had to admit he won this year. I resigned myself to Kansas City losing at least 2 different times, and didn't feel rational holding onto hope after that either. I was a little busy during the LA-Tampa Bay game, and checked in at one point with LA up 27-3, so I didn't make much effort to get back to the game. Then suddenly it was close and then tied late in the 4th quarter, before LA won it at the end of regulation with a Field Goal.

You know the drill. There are 2 games this weekend, then the Super Bowl. So who do I want to win?

Cincinnati at Kansas City (56%)
Both games are rematches of games this season. Cincinnati beat Kansas City just a few weeks ago, but it was a close game and the homefield is flipped. I show Kansas City just barely favored, which should imply a small margin of victory. Of course, I'll be rooting for Kansas City.

San Francisco at Los Angeles (55%)
As a divisional matchup, of course this game is a rematch as well. San Francisco has actually beat LA 6 times in a row, for the last 3 seasons. This will add one more data point to the attempted 3-game season sweeps. The last time I looked this up was January 2018, and dating back to 2002, 2-0 teams were 4-2 in the playoff rematch. That day, New Orleans beat Carolina to make the record 5-2, and just last year, eventual champions Tampa Bay beat New Orleans after losing to them twice in the regular season, making the overall record 5-3. I can't quite decide who to root for in this one. It would be interesting to see a team play the Super Bowl in their home stadium 2 years in a row after it never happening before that. On the other hand, San Francisco makes for a more interesting rematch against either AFC team. They lost to Kansas City just 2 years ago, and Cincinnati has lost to San Francisco in both Super Bowls in their history. Let's go for the Rams.

Rooting Record by Round:
Wildcard: 4-2
Divisional: 3-1

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC12-50.696++++++++55.631.5
LAR12-50.654++++++++54.225.8
CIN10-70.647++++++++44.422.7
SF10-70.616-++++++45.820.0
BUF11-60.824++++++---
NE10-70.780-++----
DAL12-50.765++++----
TB13-40.752++++++---
IND9-80.654------
ARI11-60.649-++----
GB13-40.641++++++---
TEN12-50.624++++++---
PHI9-80.605-++----
NO9-80.562------
SEA7-100.557------
DEN7-100.530------
LAC9-80.524------
MIN8-90.498------
BAL8-90.490------
CLE8-90.454------
MIA9-80.433------
PIT9-7-10.390-++----
LV10-70.382-++----
WAS7-100.315------
CHI6-110.308------
CAR5-120.299------
DET3-13-10.252------
ATL7-100.241------
NYG4-130.192------
HOU4-130.192------
NYJ4-130.189------
JAC3-140.145------

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a Division: Green Bay (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a Bye: Green Bay (Week 17, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)
First teams eliminated from the playoffs: Jacksonville, Houston (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Final] New England over Tampa Bay
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Tampa Bay
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Tampa Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Monday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Sunday] Buffalo over Dallas
[Week 16, Final] Buffalo over Dallas
[Week 17, Sunday] Buffalo over Green Bay
[Week 17, Final] Buffalo over Green Bay
[Week 18, Saturday] Buffalo over Dallas
[Week 18, Final] Buffalo over Dallas
[Wildcard Saturday] Buffalo over Dallas
[Wildcard Sunday] Buffalo over Tampa Bay
[Wildcard Monday] Buffalo over Tampa Bay
[Divisional Saturday] Buffalo over Tampa Bay

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