Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 11, Sunday

New England over Arizona

Buffalo lost again, ruining their shot at taking back the AFC lead. In the NFC, Arizona won to be the first team to 9 wins, and a 99.9% chance at making the playoffs. Detroit lost their 8th game, which gives us our first division elimination of the year, which is two weeks later than last year.

In case you think I've made a mistake, allow me to explain the chart and projection. The table is sorted by chances to win the Super Bowl, but the "projection" I make involves both the AFC and NFC winner. So, while Arizona is the most likely champion overall, if they were matched up against the AFC favorite, New England, they would not be the favorite, because New England has the higher Strength value.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	9-2	0.684	92.4	99.9	84.8	52.6	31.7	17.6
NE	7-4	0.714	52.0	93.6	69.8	44.8	28.6	17.3
BUF	6-4	0.691	48.0	80.9	52.7	31.8	19.0	11.0
DAL	7-3	0.629	88.6	96.7	62.5	33.9	17.4	8.6
TEN	8-3	0.565	94.8	98.4	67.9	31.8	13.6	6.1
TB	6-3	0.603	73.1	88.0	49.8	24.7	12.0	5.6
GB	8-3	0.569	87.2	98.3	57.8	26.9	11.8	5.2
LAR	7-3	0.576	7.4	89.4	45.7	21.0	9.7	4.3
CIN	6-4	0.592	36.5	67.1	38.2	18.6	8.6	4.1
IND	6-5	0.608	5.2	62.4	33.7	16.9	8.2	4.0
KC	7-4	0.556	45.1	68.6	33.9	15.0	6.4	2.8
BAL	7-3	0.531	43.8	77.7	40.0	16.7	6.7	2.8
NO	5-5	0.561	18.0	44.7	21.0	9.2	4.1	1.8
PHI	5-6	0.564	9.4	44.3	20.4	8.8	4.0	1.7
SF	5-5	0.545	0.2	48.4	21.4	8.9	3.9	1.6
MIN	5-5	0.523	12.8	58.0	24.7	9.8	4.0	1.6
LAC	6-4	0.492	35.2	56.9	24.8	9.5	3.4	1.3
DEN	5-5	0.539	16.2	29.2	13.3	5.7	2.3	1.0
CLE	6-5	0.486	12.0	27.6	11.0	4.1	1.5	0.6
PIT	5-4-1	0.476	7.7	25.1	10.2	3.7	1.3	0.5
CAR	5-6	0.513	8.6	17.0	7.1	2.8	1.1	0.4
LV	5-5	0.430	3.6	12.2	4.3	1.4	0.4	0.1
WAS	4-6	0.402	1.5	6.5	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.0
NYG	3-6	0.427	0.5	4.1	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
SEA	3-7	0.467	0.0	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
ATL	4-6	0.318	0.4	1.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
MIA	4-7	0.367	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	3-7	0.346	0.1	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAC	2-8	0.313	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	2-8	0.291	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	2-8	0.292	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-9-1	0.304	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona