2022-01-03

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 17, Sunday

Buffalo over Green Bay

With no Thursday game this week, we jump right into week 17 with 15 games. Green Bay clinched the #1 seed and the only NFC bye, which confers a huge probabilistic advantage, even above stronger teams, so they are now the NFC favorite. Six more teams were eliminated from the playoffs, and 5 more clinched playoff spots, giving us 11 in, 14 out, and 7 fighting for 3 remaining spots. And really that breaks down further to the AFC having 5 teams battling for 2 spots, and San Francisco and New Orleans fighting for the last NFC spot. As you can see, only 2 divisions are undecided, and unfortunately neither of them are between teams playing in week 18. Arizona will need to win and have Los Angeles lose to win the NFC West, and Buffalo just needs to match New England (win, lose, or tie) to win the AFC East.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BUF10-60.79594.4++63.240.726.417.0
NE10-60.7925.6++59.038.424.615.7
DAL11-50.735++++59.034.020.010.1
GB13-30.655++++++50.923.19.6
TB12-40.718++++58.031.517.88.7
KC11-50.689++++59.127.012.96.6
TEN11-50.619++++94.440.414.66.3
LAR12-40.65871.9++53.324.011.74.9
ARI11-50.66528.1++46.422.111.14.7
IND9-70.675-93.842.921.99.54.7
CIN10-60.652++++51.421.29.24.3
PHI9-70.652-++43.020.99.94.1
SF9-70.610-57.324.110.44.31.6
LAC9-70.529-65.321.88.72.40.8
NO8-80.541-42.716.26.22.10.6
LV9-70.374-38.87.61.60.30.1
BAL8-80.496-1.10.30.10.00.0
PIT7-7-10.366-1.10.20.10.00.0
SEA6-100.543------
DEN7-90.540------
MIN7-90.474------
CLE7-80.469------
MIA8-80.413------
CAR5-110.341------
CHI6-100.334------
WAS6-100.296------
ATL7-90.257------
DET2-13-10.239------
NYG4-120.223------
NYJ4-120.217------
HOU4-120.198------
JAC2-140.139------

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a Division: Green Bay (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a Bye: Green Bay (Week 17, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)
First teams eliminated from the playoffs: Jacksonville, Houston (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Final] New England over Tampa Bay
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Tampa Bay
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Tampa Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Monday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Sunday] Buffalo over Dallas
[Week 16, Final] Buffalo over Dallas

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