As is now tradition, we had 3 games on Thanksgiving day. Also now tradition, Detroit is messing things up for me. They hosted Chicago and lost again, but at 0-10-1 are not quite actually eliminated from the playoffs. But none of my simulations put them there. I thought maybe there was some situation where a bunch of teams would need to tie so that only 6 teams would finish ahead of them in the conference, but by monkeying with some fake data I was able to force them into the playoffs with 6 more wins and a bunch of wins by the teams that already have 7+ wins, who will have to finish ahead of them anyway. So, in short, they're more likley to win the lottery, maybe even twice, than to make the playoffs.
Dallas also hosted a game as usual, and lost to Las Vegas in overtime. They're still pretty well-favored to win their division at 84%, but a 3 game lead would have been nearly insurmountable. Vegas is only one game worse than Dallas, but stuck in a better division and only 7% likely to win it, 21% likely to make the playoffs.
The big swing of the day came when Buffalo won at New Orleans, tying them at 7-4 with New England, and also boosting their strength back up to the top in the AFC. Those two still have 2 games to play against each other, so there's a lot of uncertainty to the numbers, but Buffalo is now 60.5% likely to win the AFC East vs. New England's 39.5%, and the other teams virtually eliminated. Interestingly, New England has a bit of an easier schedule ahead, and is slightly more likely to make the playoffs, and advance out of the first weekend and second weekend. But, by that time they are likely to run into Buffalo, who is the most likely AFC team to make and/or win the Super Bowl.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 9-2 | 0.683 | 92.6 | 99.9 | 85.6 | 52.9 | 31.6 | 17.0 |
| BUF | 7-4 | 0.728 | 60.5 | 90.3 | 64.1 | 41.3 | 26.4 | 16.3 |
| NE | 7-4 | 0.713 | 39.5 | 92.2 | 66.8 | 41.8 | 25.9 | 15.6 |
| TB | 7-3 | 0.635 | 87.8 | 95.4 | 59.9 | 32.4 | 16.7 | 8.1 |
| DAL | 7-4 | 0.623 | 83.9 | 94.9 | 56.5 | 29.2 | 14.7 | 6.9 |
| TEN | 8-3 | 0.565 | 95.1 | 98.2 | 67.2 | 30.9 | 12.7 | 5.6 |
| GB | 8-3 | 0.569 | 87.1 | 98.6 | 59.3 | 27.5 | 11.9 | 5.0 |
| LAR | 7-3 | 0.576 | 7.2 | 90.2 | 45.7 | 20.9 | 9.5 | 4.1 |
| CIN | 6-4 | 0.592 | 36.5 | 65.4 | 36.8 | 17.6 | 7.8 | 3.7 |
| IND | 6-5 | 0.608 | 4.9 | 58.1 | 31.0 | 15.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 |
| BAL | 7-3 | 0.531 | 43.8 | 76.3 | 39.0 | 15.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 |
| KC | 7-4 | 0.556 | 43.3 | 66.6 | 32.2 | 13.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 |
| PHI | 5-6 | 0.564 | 13.2 | 50.7 | 23.1 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 |
| SF | 5-5 | 0.545 | 0.2 | 50.6 | 22.0 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| MIN | 5-5 | 0.523 | 12.7 | 60.7 | 25.5 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.5 |
| LAC | 6-4 | 0.492 | 34.7 | 55.1 | 23.9 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| DEN | 5-5 | 0.539 | 15.2 | 27.6 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| NO | 5-6 | 0.515 | 6.2 | 27.9 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| CLE | 6-5 | 0.486 | 11.9 | 26.0 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| PIT | 5-4-1 | 0.476 | 7.7 | 23.2 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| CAR | 5-6 | 0.513 | 5.7 | 15.7 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| LV | 6-5 | 0.438 | 6.9 | 20.6 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| WAS | 4-6 | 0.402 | 2.6 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| SEA | 3-7 | 0.467 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| NYG | 3-7 | 0.389 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CHI | 4-7 | 0.344 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ATL | 4-6 | 0.318 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| MIA | 4-7 | 0.367 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| JAC | 2-8 | 0.313 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| HOU | 2-8 | 0.291 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYJ | 2-8 | 0.292 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| DET | 0-10-1 | 0.292 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)
[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Final] New England over Arizona
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