2021-10-11

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 5, Sunday

Buffalo over Arizona

Buffalo and Arizona won again, and are both now well over 90% likely to make the playoffs, while Jacksonville and Detroit compete to be the sorriest teams of the year, both at 0-5. Jacksonville has their 20-loss streak and a head coach on the hot seat, while Detroit has, well, their whole history, plus 2 last-second losses in 3 weeks, both on long field goals (66-yard and 54-yard) improbable enough that prior to the kick, Detroit was 85% and 74% likely to win the respective games.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BUF4-10.63390.696.676.146.928.616.6
ARI5-00.59471.694.771.940.522.412.0
DAL4-10.57582.288.855.629.815.68.1
TB4-10.56549.878.347.424.812.76.5
LAC4-10.54453.484.453.227.013.16.4
LAR4-10.54223.580.247.023.111.35.5
DEN3-20.56229.066.138.519.910.15.1
NO3-20.56923.760.534.417.99.34.7
CLE3-20.54729.761.334.317.18.44.2
BAL3-10.52336.569.939.418.88.84.1
CAR3-20.55924.856.831.516.08.14.1
CIN3-20.52928.562.334.716.77.93.7
TEN3-20.50370.875.538.917.57.83.5
GB4-10.49657.069.235.115.46.73.0
LV3-20.48712.047.623.210.14.41.9
NE2-30.5097.936.218.08.23.81.7
MIN2-30.50819.032.615.67.03.21.4
CHI3-20.46223.637.316.56.72.71.1
KC2-30.4875.726.112.15.22.31.0
IND1-30.47317.628.112.85.32.20.9
SF2-30.4962.123.110.74.72.10.9
PHI2-30.4839.024.511.04.72.00.9
SEA2-30.4892.823.010.64.62.00.9
PIT2-30.4625.421.99.84.01.60.7
WAS2-30.4517.316.56.92.71.10.4
HOU1-40.4119.411.64.51.60.60.2
ATL2-30.4301.77.93.11.20.40.2
NYG1-40.4371.55.42.10.80.30.1
NYJ1-40.3950.84.81.70.60.20.1
MIA1-40.3870.74.71.60.50.20.1
JAC0-50.4072.23.01.10.40.10.1
DET0-50.4300.41.10.40.20.10.0

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona

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