NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

After a few years off, I've returned to posting my power rankings. The reasons for my absence were not major, but there were several of them, which all kind of piled up to make my blog as a whole less active. Perhaps I'll get into an explanation one of these days. Now, as is opening week tradition, the copied, pasted, and lightly edited explainer.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers". As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated. The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that. I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength. I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop. So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001. I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings. It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system). I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams may not play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

The last time I did this was 2020, with tons of cancellations, reschedules, and just all-around weirdness. Week 1 only had 14 teams included (out of the 130 total). There are now 133 FBS schools, with James Madison joining in 2022, and Sam Houston and Jacksonville State joining for 2023. Those two won't be postseason eligible this year, which makes the reveal of the Week 1 number 1 team extra fun. I may have to start posting Week 0 standings, because this year we're up to 13 FBS teams that have already played 2 games by the end of "Week 1". We have a tie for #1 between Jacksonville State and San Diego State, both 2-0 and having beaten 1 team that is 0-1, and one team that is 1-1, who beat another 0-1 team. San José State and Hawai'i bring up the rear, tied at #132, and my home team until SLU re-forms a football team, Missouri, sits in the muddled group of 1-0 teams tied at #12.

1	Jacksonville State	2-0
1	San Diego State	2-0
3	Notre Dame	2-0
4	Vanderbilt	2-0
4	USC	2-0
6	SMU	1-0
6	Ole Miss	1-0
6	Auburn	1-0
6	Marshall	1-0
10	UMass	1-1
10	Louisiana Tech	1-1
12	Georgia State	1-0
12	UCF	1-0
12	Wake Forest	1-0
12	Western Michigan	1-0
12	NC State	1-0
12	Tulsa	1-0
12	Minnesota	1-0
12	Missouri	1-0
12	UAB	1-0
12	Utah	1-0
12	Arizona State	1-0
12	Eastern Michigan	1-0
12	Miami	1-0
12	Michigan State	1-0
12	Louisville	1-0
12	Kansas	1-0
12	Oklahoma	1-0
12	Colorado	1-0
12	Fresno State	1-0
12	Kentucky	1-0
12	Iowa	1-0
12	Michigan	1-0
12	Northern Illinois	1-0
12	Liberty	1-0
12	Tennessee	1-0
12	Air Force	1-0
12	Temple	1-0
12	Iowa State	1-0
12	Oregon	1-0
12	Wisconsin	1-0
12	Maryland	1-0
12	Appalachian State	1-0
12	Washington	1-0
12	Texas	1-0
12	Cincinnati	1-0
12	Western Kentucky	1-0
12	Pittsburgh	1-0
12	Ohio State	1-0
12	California	1-0
12	Arkansas	1-0
12	Syracuse	1-0
12	Mississippi State	1-0
12	UNLV	1-0
12	Georgia Southern	1-0
12	Georgia	1-0
12	Florida Atlantic	1-0
12	James Madison	1-0
12	Memphis	1-0
12	Southern Mississippi	1-0
12	Washington State	1-0
12	Kansas State	1-0
12	Houston	1-0
12	Oklahoma State	1-0
12	Texas State	1-0
12	Texas A&M	1-0
12	Louisiana Monroe	1-0
12	Troy	1-0
12	North Carolina	1-0
12	Illinois	1-0
12	Louisiana	1-0
12	Wyoming	1-0
12	Alabama	1-0
12	Penn State	1-0
12	Tulane	1-0
12	Virginia Tech	1-0
12	Arizona	1-0
12	BYU	1-0
12	UCLA	1-0
12	Rutgers	1-0
12	Florida State	1-0
12	Duke	1-0
83	UTEP	1-1
83	Ohio	1-1
85	Stanford	1-0
85	Oregon State	1-0
87	Charlotte	1-0
88	New Mexico State	1-1
88	Florida International	1-1
90	Navy	0-1
91	Nevada	0-1
92	Kent State	0-1
92	Connecticut	0-1
92	Nebraska	0-1
92	Florida	0-1
92	Miami (OH)	0-1
92	Central Michigan	0-1
92	Georgia Tech	0-1
92	Arkansas State	0-1
92	TCU	0-1
92	Purdue	0-1
92	Ball State	0-1
92	Utah State	0-1
92	East Carolina	0-1
92	Boston College	0-1
92	Bowling Green	0-1
92	Virginia	0-1
92	Akron	0-1
92	Buffalo	0-1
92	Boise State	0-1
92	Rice	0-1
92	South Florida	0-1
92	Indiana	0-1
92	North Texas	0-1
92	Colorado State	0-1
92	UT San Antonio	0-1
92	Baylor	0-1
92	New Mexico	0-1
92	Army	0-1
92	South Carolina	0-1
92	Toledo	0-1
92	Texas Tech	0-1
92	Middle Tennessee	0-1
92	West Virginia	0-1
92	South Alabama	0-1
92	Old Dominion	0-1
92	Sam Houston State	0-1
92	Coastal Carolina	0-1
92	Northwestern	0-1
92	LSU	0-1
92	Clemson	0-1
132	Hawai'i	0-2
132	San José State	0-2