Buffalo has virtually tied Arizona in strength. The difference is even less than the 0.001 shown here, 0.66636 to 0.66541. So, my projection flips again. I'm currently running 2 billion simulations per gameday, and I'm seeing the first blanks in my results, although not the ones shown here. At 0-8, no simulation had Detroit taking the #1 seed. I'm not sure if it's possible or not, but they already lost to LA and Green Bay, and still have to play Arizona, all 7-1 teams. LA still has to play Arizona and Green Bay, so those 3 teams will have to get at least 2 more total wins, or a win and 2 ties, or 4 ties, which are all effectively the same in the standings. I also forgot to mark the playoff thresholds reached, so I'll go back and start with the first team to hit 99%, Arizona, even though they have fallen back below that thanks to some strong games by their division rivals this week.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 5-2 | 0.666 | 84.8 | 95.9 | 71.4 | 44.8 | 27.8 | 15.6 |
| ARI | 7-1 | 0.665 | 64.8 | 98.7 | 73.1 | 43.2 | 25.1 | 14.7 |
| LAR | 7-1 | 0.621 | 34.5 | 97.6 | 62.7 | 33.1 | 17.2 | 9.3 |
| TB | 6-2 | 0.614 | 57.0 | 93.0 | 53.9 | 27.8 | 14.2 | 7.5 |
| DAL | 6-1 | 0.595 | 94.6 | 97.5 | 57.4 | 28.7 | 13.9 | 7.1 |
| CIN | 5-3 | 0.602 | 46.0 | 80.3 | 50.1 | 27.0 | 14.1 | 7.0 |
| TEN | 6-2 | 0.553 | 97.5 | 98.6 | 65.3 | 32.1 | 14.9 | 6.6 |
| NO | 5-2 | 0.592 | 37.8 | 85.1 | 45.7 | 22.2 | 10.8 | 5.5 |
| GB | 7-1 | 0.549 | 91.5 | 97.2 | 54.6 | 24.4 | 10.5 | 4.9 |
| BAL | 5-2 | 0.540 | 36.0 | 80.2 | 44.0 | 20.5 | 9.4 | 4.0 |
| NE | 4-4 | 0.578 | 15.0 | 61.7 | 33.4 | 16.8 | 8.5 | 4.0 |
| LV | 5-2 | 0.525 | 50.2 | 76.0 | 41.2 | 18.5 | 8.1 | 3.4 |
| DEN | 4-4 | 0.548 | 18.3 | 40.5 | 20.2 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.9 |
| LAC | 4-3 | 0.491 | 25.2 | 49.5 | 22.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| PIT | 4-3 | 0.477 | 10.8 | 44.4 | 19.6 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| MIN | 3-4 | 0.512 | 8.1 | 36.5 | 15.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| CLE | 4-4 | 0.506 | 7.2 | 29.8 | 13.5 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| IND | 3-5 | 0.531 | 2.3 | 23.6 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| PHI | 3-5 | 0.522 | 4.5 | 23.4 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| CAR | 4-4 | 0.513 | 4.7 | 22.5 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| SEA | 3-5 | 0.524 | 0.4 | 16.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| SF | 3-4 | 0.494 | 0.3 | 18.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| KC | 3-4 | 0.476 | 6.4 | 16.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| ATL | 3-4 | 0.419 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| NYG | 2-5 | 0.423 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| CHI | 3-5 | 0.358 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYJ | 2-5 | 0.353 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WAS | 2-6 | 0.379 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| JAC | 1-6 | 0.368 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| MIA | 1-7 | 0.345 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| HOU | 1-7 | 0.315 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| DET | 0-8 | 0.331 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
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