Tampa beat New York, which lets them creep up just close enough to the top of the NFC to bring Arizona down below New England in overall Super Bowl winning chances, which makes the projection look a little less nonsensical today. So I guess... thanks, Tampa? Also, while Detroit is not eliminated, at no time during my 2 billion simulations did they win the Super Bowl. They did make the NFC title game about 1 in a million times, and won it at least a few times to make it to the Super Bowl. Clearly I need more simulations, and more decimal places in my charts.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 7-4 | 0.713 | 52.6 | 93.6 | 69.8 | 44.8 | 28.7 | 17.2 |
| ARI | 9-2 | 0.683 | 92.4 | 99.9 | 83.8 | 51.4 | 30.5 | 17.0 |
| BUF | 6-4 | 0.691 | 47.4 | 80.4 | 52.2 | 31.5 | 18.8 | 10.8 |
| DAL | 7-3 | 0.629 | 88.6 | 96.9 | 61.9 | 32.9 | 16.7 | 8.3 |
| TB | 7-3 | 0.635 | 82.5 | 94.5 | 58.3 | 31.1 | 16.0 | 8.1 |
| TEN | 8-3 | 0.565 | 95.1 | 98.4 | 67.9 | 31.8 | 13.6 | 6.0 |
| GB | 8-3 | 0.569 | 87.2 | 98.2 | 56.9 | 26.0 | 11.3 | 4.9 |
| LAR | 7-3 | 0.576 | 7.4 | 89.0 | 44.4 | 20.1 | 9.2 | 4.1 |
| CIN | 6-4 | 0.592 | 36.5 | 67.1 | 38.3 | 18.6 | 8.6 | 4.0 |
| IND | 6-5 | 0.608 | 4.9 | 61.5 | 33.2 | 16.6 | 8.1 | 3.9 |
| KC | 7-4 | 0.556 | 44.5 | 68.7 | 34.0 | 15.1 | 6.4 | 2.8 |
| BAL | 7-3 | 0.531 | 43.8 | 77.7 | 40.1 | 16.8 | 6.7 | 2.7 |
| PHI | 5-6 | 0.564 | 9.8 | 46.8 | 21.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| NO | 5-5 | 0.561 | 12.2 | 42.6 | 19.4 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| SF | 5-5 | 0.545 | 0.2 | 48.0 | 20.7 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| MIN | 5-5 | 0.523 | 12.8 | 57.4 | 23.9 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| LAC | 6-4 | 0.492 | 35.9 | 57.9 | 25.4 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| DEN | 5-5 | 0.539 | 16.1 | 29.2 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| CLE | 6-5 | 0.486 | 12.0 | 27.6 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| PIT | 5-4-1 | 0.476 | 7.7 | 25.2 | 10.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| CAR | 5-6 | 0.513 | 5.1 | 14.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| LV | 5-5 | 0.430 | 3.5 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| WAS | 4-6 | 0.402 | 1.5 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| SEA | 3-7 | 0.467 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| NYG | 3-7 | 0.389 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ATL | 4-6 | 0.318 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| MIA | 4-7 | 0.367 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CHI | 3-7 | 0.346 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| JAC | 2-8 | 0.313 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| HOU | 2-8 | 0.291 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYJ | 2-8 | 0.292 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| DET | 0-9-1 | 0.304 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)
[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over Arizona
No comments:
Post a Comment