As is tradition, rather than re-explaining, allow me to copy and past from 2014's introductory post.
Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.For the second year in a row, I needed to modify my software to accommodate some changes in the NFL. Last year they added 2 playoff teams, for a total of 14. This year each team plays 17 games. I had a lot of hard-coded 16s, as well as some other hard-coded numbers from 14 up to 23 to index into certain data structures. Avoid hard-coded constants for things that might ever change, kids. Hopefully that fix will bring me closer to my eventual goal of being able to project baseball, basketball, and hockey if I can figure out how to project overtime and shootouts.
The first week of the season is not terrible indicative of the outcome of the season, because of so much uncertainty remaining. For example, last year Tampa sat at 1.7% after a week 1 loss. But, by virtue of a 32-6 win, and a weaker division that New Orleans, who won 38-3, Philadelphia takes the NFC lead. Philadelphia is the only 1-0 team in the NFC East, while there are 3 1-0 teams in the NFC South. In the AFC, Houston is the only 1-0 team in the AFC South, which gives them a huge boost in playoff odds currently. Miami is in the same position, but only won by a point, putting their strength very near .500
All in all, don't place any wagers based on week 1. In fact, don't ever do that based on this amateur stuff.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1-0 | 0.529 | 47.3 | 63.3 | 38.7 | 20.2 | 10.5 | 5.5 |
| NO | 1-0 | 0.529 | 35.0 | 61.4 | 38.1 | 19.9 | 10.4 | 5.5 |
| HOU | 1-0 | 0.520 | 49.9 | 64.2 | 38.9 | 20.2 | 10.4 | 5.3 |
| LAR | 1-0 | 0.526 | 26.9 | 58.2 | 35.8 | 18.5 | 9.6 | 5.0 |
| DEN | 1-0 | 0.524 | 28.4 | 57.1 | 35.1 | 18.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 |
| ARI | 1-0 | 0.527 | 26.7 | 56.6 | 34.7 | 18.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 |
| PIT | 1-0 | 0.515 | 35.9 | 58.3 | 35.2 | 18.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 |
| SEA | 1-0 | 0.520 | 24.4 | 54.1 | 32.6 | 16.7 | 8.5 | 4.4 |
| MIA | 1-0 | 0.503 | 42.6 | 58.6 | 34.0 | 17.0 | 8.4 | 4.2 |
| LV | 1-0 | 0.509 | 24.2 | 53.5 | 31.8 | 16.1 | 8.1 | 4.1 |
| CAR | 1-0 | 0.513 | 28.6 | 53.3 | 31.4 | 15.8 | 8.0 | 4.0 |
| CIN | 1-0 | 0.505 | 33.0 | 53.8 | 31.5 | 15.8 | 7.9 | 3.9 |
| LAC | 1-0 | 0.510 | 23.6 | 51.4 | 30.4 | 15.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 |
| KC | 1-0 | 0.506 | 23.8 | 52.9 | 31.2 | 15.7 | 7.9 | 3.9 |
| SF | 1-0 | 0.509 | 22.0 | 52.0 | 30.6 | 15.3 | 7.6 | 3.9 |
| TB | 1-0 | 0.503 | 26.7 | 52.5 | 30.4 | 15.0 | 7.4 | 3.7 |
| MIN | 0-1 | 0.495 | 28.3 | 37.8 | 20.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| NE | 0-1 | 0.497 | 19.1 | 34.4 | 18.6 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| DET | 0-1 | 0.491 | 26.9 | 35.3 | 18.3 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 |
| DAL | 0-1 | 0.497 | 19.1 | 32.0 | 16.9 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| CLE | 0-1 | 0.494 | 15.7 | 31.0 | 16.7 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
| NYJ | 0-1 | 0.487 | 19.0 | 32.9 | 17.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| WAS | 0-1 | 0.490 | 18.3 | 32.1 | 16.9 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| BAL | 0-1 | 0.491 | 15.4 | 30.9 | 16.5 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| BUF | 0-1 | 0.485 | 19.3 | 31.7 | 16.5 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| IND | 0-1 | 0.480 | 18.2 | 31.4 | 16.3 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| JAC | 0-1 | 0.480 | 15.5 | 29.1 | 15.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| CHI | 0-1 | 0.474 | 22.9 | 30.8 | 15.3 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| TEN | 0-1 | 0.473 | 16.3 | 28.8 | 14.7 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| NYG | 0-1 | 0.476 | 15.3 | 27.6 | 14.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| GB | 0-1 | 0.471 | 21.9 | 29.2 | 14.3 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| ATL | 0-1 | 0.471 | 9.7 | 24.0 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
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