Tenets of Wilson: 2018-10

2018-10-30

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 8, Final

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

New England is making a run at it, but Kansas City is still my projected AFC Champion. They've got a 1 game lead, along with a higher team strength. New England did give themselves quite a boost in strength with a blowout of Buffalo, the weakest team in the league.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	8-0	0.667	97.08	99.71	96.29	59.74	36.61	21.46
KC	7-1	0.621	86.99	99.04	89.58	51.01	28.16	14.68
NE	6-2	0.593	90.10	95.19	81.47	43.55	22.05	10.85
NO	6-1	0.578	62.56	86.60	66.77	34.01	15.82	7.79
BAL	4-4	0.626	32.85	61.07	40.72	22.09	12.15	6.39
CHI	4-3	0.593	55.57	69.50	45.86	23.19	11.33	5.75
HOU	5-3	0.562	71.55	77.79	47.07	22.29	10.57	4.87
LAC	5-2	0.558	12.87	75.04	43.70	20.33	9.68	4.43
CAR	5-2	0.552	32.56	69.16	43.49	20.07	8.89	4.14
PIT	4-2-1	0.556	41.85	63.17	39.47	18.60	8.73	3.97
WAS	5-2	0.528	63.52	75.16	45.66	19.97	8.33	3.69
SEA	4-3	0.584	2.92	55.21	30.64	14.15	7.04	3.51
PHI	4-4	0.549	21.85	28.61	15.19	6.72	3.01	1.40
CIN	5-3	0.474	24.99	48.27	23.01	8.85	3.44	1.29
DAL	3-4	0.543	14.61	22.99	12.10	5.24	2.32	1.06
MIN	4-3-1	0.504	19.77	31.44	15.36	6.15	2.49	1.04
GB	3-3-1	0.504	15.71	27.38	13.32	5.31	2.15	0.90
IND	3-5	0.531	14.04	19.91	9.67	4.20	1.87	0.81
NYJ	3-5	0.485	4.49	12.68	5.92	2.34	0.94	0.36
DET	3-4	0.472	8.94	12.48	5.55	2.05	0.77	0.30
ATL	3-4	0.464	2.50	12.14	5.55	1.95	0.73	0.28
MIA	4-4	0.416	5.35	18.05	7.19	2.38	0.80	0.26
TEN	3-4	0.441	10.69	12.99	5.38	1.90	0.68	0.24
DEN	3-5	0.488	0.13	8.63	3.77	1.46	0.59	0.23
TB	3-4	0.452	2.37	9.50	4.19	1.44	0.52	0.19
JAC	3-5	0.413	3.72	6.64	2.50	0.81	0.27	0.09
CLE	2-5-1	0.420	0.31	1.27	0.48	0.16	0.05	0.02
OAK	1-6	0.368	0.01	0.14	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
SF	1-7	0.390	0.00	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
BUF	2-6	0.287	0.07	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
NYG	1-7	0.389	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
ARI	2-6	0.321	0.00	0.06	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

2018-10-29

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

Another week, another win for LA and KC. Both of them are over 99% likely to make the playoffs. I've gotten the first blank space in my numbers, indicating something never happened once in the simulations, but it's not in the table I publish here. I have some other stuff I track, like homefield advantage, or having the #1 seed. San Francisco and the New York Giants never achieved the #1 seed in my simulations, although for now I'm not allowing ties, so it's possible there's some weird scenario that would make it possible. Either way, I'm pretty sure neither 1-7 team will wind up on top of the conference. Speaking of homefield advantage, LA has a 75% shot at it in the NFC, and Kansas City is "only" at about 58%.

Also, I forgot to note when LA passed the 20% mark for championship chances, which first happened last Sunday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	8-0	0.667	97.08	99.71	96.30	59.76	36.64	21.73
KC	7-1	0.621	86.99	99.05	90.33	51.89	29.35	15.30
NO	6-1	0.578	62.57	86.56	66.79	34.03	15.83	7.91
NE	5-2	0.558	83.25	89.56	70.70	35.11	16.57	7.57
BAL	4-4	0.626	32.48	61.45	42.14	23.47	13.09	6.88
CHI	4-3	0.593	54.65	68.83	45.36	22.93	11.21	5.77
HOU	5-3	0.562	71.41	77.74	48.71	23.81	11.44	5.27
LAC	5-2	0.558	12.87	75.34	44.54	21.11	10.25	4.69
PIT	4-2-1	0.556	42.57	64.31	41.94	20.41	9.69	4.41
CAR	5-2	0.552	32.56	69.09	43.49	20.08	8.89	4.21
WAS	5-2	0.528	63.53	75.11	45.61	19.95	8.32	3.74
SEA	4-3	0.584	2.92	55.09	30.59	14.12	7.03	3.55
CIN	5-3	0.474	24.65	48.24	24.21	9.65	3.80	1.43
PHI	4-4	0.550	21.85	28.55	15.17	6.71	3.01	1.42
MIN	4-3-1	0.504	20.41	32.26	15.79	6.33	2.56	1.09
DAL	3-4	0.543	14.61	22.92	12.07	5.23	2.32	1.07
GB	3-3-1	0.504	16.29	28.15	13.72	5.47	2.22	0.94
IND	3-5	0.531	14.02	19.92	9.86	4.42	2.00	0.86
NYJ	3-5	0.484	7.34	14.38	6.89	2.78	1.13	0.44
DET	3-4	0.472	8.65	12.10	5.38	1.99	0.75	0.30
MIA	4-4	0.416	8.66	19.09	7.83	2.66	0.91	0.29
ATL	3-4	0.464	2.50	12.07	5.52	1.94	0.72	0.28
TEN	3-4	0.441	11.00	13.44	5.68	2.08	0.76	0.26
DEN	3-5	0.488	0.13	8.72	3.89	1.54	0.64	0.25
TB	3-4	0.452	2.37	9.44	4.17	1.43	0.51	0.19
JAC	3-5	0.413	3.57	6.39	2.48	0.83	0.28	0.09
CLE	2-5-1	0.420	0.30	1.29	0.50	0.17	0.06	0.02
BUF	2-5	0.320	0.75	0.96	0.27	0.07	0.02	0.00
OAK	1-6	0.368	0.01	0.14	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
SF	1-7	0.390	0.00	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYG	1-7	0.389	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
ARI	2-6	0.321	0.00	0.06	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00

2018-10-28

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

This week was Alabama's turn to suffer from their bye week, as Clemson and Notre Dame both passed them up, dropping Alabama to #3. The internal scores are reasonably close though, and can be increasingly influenced each week by the performance of all the teams' previous opponents. We're down to 4 undefeated teams with South Florida's loss to Houston, my top 3 all at 8-0, and 7-0 #12 UCF.

Missouri fans were pretty high on their chances against Kentucky, but didn't really look at how this year's team is doing. The real polls had them at #12 last week, and I had them at #15. Now they've somehow jumped all the way up to #7. So much for Kentucky being a basketball school.

Now that we've covered the top, let's look at the bottom. San Jose State won a game to move to 1-7, but UTEP maintained their perfect record of futility and fell to 0-8. UTEP isn't even losing to good teams. Just for a slight hint of how bad they are, without diving into the details of my system, the scores (which determine the rank) of the bottom 5 teams are -1800, -1900, -2700, -3100, and -5600 for UTEP. That's a huge dropoff, that probably wouldn't even be made up with a single win.

1	Clemson	8-0
2	Notre Dame	8-0
3	Alabama	8-0
4	LSU	7-1
5	Georgia	7-1
6	Michigan	7-1
7	Kentucky	7-1
8	Washington State	7-1
9	Oklahoma	7-1
10	Fresno State	7-1
11	Ohio State	7-1
12	UCF	7-0
13	UAB	7-1
14	South Florida	7-1
15	Utah	6-2
16	Cincinnati	7-1
17	Georgia Southern	7-1
18	Florida	6-2
19	Buffalo	7-1
20	Iowa	6-2
21	Houston	7-1
22	Army	6-2
23	North Texas	7-2
24	Utah State	7-1
25	Penn State	6-2
26	Washington	6-3
27	West Virginia	6-1
28	Texas	6-2
29	Boise State	6-2
30	Stanford	5-3
31	Syracuse	6-2
32	Louisiana Tech	6-2
33	Virginia	6-2
33	Boston College	6-2
35	San Diego State	6-2
36	Troy	6-2
37	NC State	5-2
38	Mississippi State	5-3
39	Texas A&M	5-3
40	Michigan State	5-3
41	Texas Tech	5-3
42	Duke	5-3
43	Hawai'i	6-4
44	Western Michigan	6-3
45	Miami	5-3
46	Coastal Carolina	5-3
47	Appalachian State	5-2
48	Florida Intl	6-2
49	Auburn	5-3
50	Oklahoma State	5-3
51	Northwestern	5-3
52	Northern Illinois	5-3
53	Nevada	5-4
54	Oregon	5-3
54	Maryland	5-3
56	Ole Miss	5-3
57	Temple	5-3
58	Wisconsin	5-3
59	California	5-3
60	Iowa State	4-3
61	South Carolina	4-3
62	Middle Tennessee	5-3
63	Marshall	5-2
64	BYU	4-4
65	Ohio	5-3
66	Colorado	5-3
67	Vanderbilt	4-5
68	USC	4-4
69	Pittsburgh	4-4
70	Eastern Michigan	4-5
71	Missouri	4-4
72	Florida State	4-4
73	Purdue	4-4
74	Arizona State	4-4
75	Georgia Tech	4-4
76	Baylor	4-4
77	Wake Forest	4-4
78	Indiana	4-5
79	Minnesota	4-4
80	Toledo	4-4
81	Virginia Tech	4-3
82	Arkansas State	4-4
83	Louisiana	4-4
84	UL Monroe	4-4
85	Arizona	4-5
86	Akron	4-3
87	Tennessee	3-5
88	TCU	3-5
89	Memphis	4-4
90	Charlotte	4-4
91	Kansas State	3-5
92	Wyoming	3-6
93	Tulane	3-5
94	UMass	3-6
95	Florida Atlantic	3-5
96	SMU	3-5
97	Air Force	3-5
98	Illinois	3-5
99	Miami (OH)	3-5
100	UCLA	2-6
101	Southern Mississippi	3-4
102	Kansas	3-5
103	New Mexico	3-5
104	Colorado State	3-6
105	East Carolina	2-5
106	Georgia State	2-6
107	Nebraska	2-6
108	Ball State	3-6
109	UTSA	3-5
110	Oregon State	2-6
111	South Alabama	2-6
112	Louisville	2-6
113	Navy	2-6
114	Arkansas	2-7
115	UConn	1-7
116	North Carolina	1-6
117	San Jose State	1-7
118	Old Dominion	2-7
119	New Mexico State	2-7
120	UNLV	2-6
121	Tulsa	1-7
122	Texas State	2-6
123	Central Michigan	1-8
124	Bowling Green	1-7
125	Rutgers	1-7
126	Rice	1-8
127	Kent State	1-7
128	Western Kentucky	1-7
129	UTEP	0-8

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama

2018 World Series Projection, October 28

Boston over Los Angeles

World Series
LAD 1-3 BOS

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 4-3 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	Win
BOS	0.6382	88.42
LAD	0.6265	11.58

Boston's up 3-1, and it's looking pretty likely they'll be the champs. I think I've found myself rooting more for LA when I've been watching the games, even though I have no particular allegiances to either side. I am glad to see there's a former Cardinal on each team, with David Freese in LA and Joe Kelly in Boston.

2018-10-27

2018 World Series Projection, October 27

Boston over Los Angeles

World Series
LAD 1-2 BOS

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 4-3 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	Win
BOS	0.6382	70.61
LAD	0.6265	29.39

I thought about staying up and watching the end of the game, but you never know with extra innings. I gave up after 11, and I was sort of glad I did when I woke up and saw the game went 18 innings. Lost in all that is the odd move of bringing in David Price to pitch in the bottom of the 9th. He just pitched 6 innings in game 2, although only 88 pitches. After I thought about it though, it made a little bit of sense. If Boston could have won game 3, their goal then would be to win game 4 and Price would not have gotten another start. Now that LA has forced the series to at least 5 games, there's some likelihood his turn could come up again. I don't know enough about his routine to know if those 13 pitches in game 3 will affect his availability or not.

2018-10-26

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 8, Thursday

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

Houston was favored over Miami, so their victory didn't change things by much, except for those teams and their immediate neighbors in the standings. Houston got a boost from 59% to 72% likely to win the AFC South, but the next best contender is 2-5 Indianapolis. Miami had their division chances cut from 14% to 8%, with New England far ahead and the New York Jets now slightly ahead.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	7-0	0.659	97.41	99.48	95.85	60.58	37.96	22.04
KC	6-1	0.608	77.70	96.16	82.56	45.91	24.80	13.02
BAL	4-3	0.651	58.33	78.99	60.94	36.48	21.56	12.26
NE	5-2	0.558	78.60	87.67	69.28	33.99	16.05	7.60
NO	5-1	0.562	62.50	80.31	61.41	31.50	14.61	7.00
HOU	5-3	0.562	72.25	77.84	49.43	23.95	11.47	5.48
LAC	5-2	0.558	19.78	74.45	46.08	22.04	10.58	5.02
CHI	3-3	0.565	28.86	50.58	32.57	15.95	7.63	3.68
WAS	4-2	0.512	56.53	67.30	40.55	17.84	7.46	3.21
MIN	4-2-1	0.523	33.58	52.45	31.53	14.20	6.14	2.71
CAR	4-2	0.523	25.40	51.73	31.39	14.10	6.09	2.69
PIT	3-2-1	0.530	24.00	45.80	27.05	12.30	5.52	2.46
SEA	3-3	0.556	2.59	40.06	21.89	9.84	4.79	2.27
GB	3-2-1	0.508	22.27	40.24	22.57	9.65	4.07	1.73
DAL	3-4	0.543	21.49	30.33	17.02	7.78	3.56	1.64
PHI	3-4	0.536	21.45	26.25	14.25	6.42	2.90	1.32
NYJ	3-4	0.511	12.79	25.02	13.22	5.67	2.44	1.05
DET	3-3	0.498	15.30	26.11	13.99	5.82	2.41	1.01
CIN	4-3	0.468	15.82	34.37	16.68	6.55	2.55	0.99
DEN	3-4	0.502	2.45	15.91	7.71	3.22	1.36	0.57
TB	3-3	0.455	7.61	19.30	9.51	3.54	1.32	0.50
IND	2-5	0.507	9.12	12.46	5.82	2.47	1.05	0.45
ATL	3-4	0.464	4.49	14.78	7.08	2.64	1.02	0.39
MIA	4-4	0.416	7.99	18.69	7.68	2.60	0.89	0.30
TEN	3-4	0.441	11.39	13.96	5.89	2.14	0.78	0.28
JAC	3-4	0.426	7.23	12.42	5.14	1.79	0.62	0.22
CLE	2-4-1	0.448	1.85	4.85	2.07	0.77	0.29	0.11
NYG	1-6	0.406	0.54	0.66	0.25	0.08	0.03	0.01
OAK	1-5	0.385	0.07	0.57	0.20	0.06	0.02	0.01
SF	1-6	0.401	0.01	0.38	0.14	0.04	0.01	0.00
BUF	2-5	0.320	0.62	0.84	0.24	0.06	0.02	0.00
ARI	1-6	0.329	0.00	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

2018-10-25

2018 World Series Projection, October 25

Boston over Los Angeles

World Series
LAD 0-2 BOS

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 4-3 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	Win
BOS	0.6382	82.78
LAD	0.6265	17.22

It's now 2-0, and Boston shows no signs of slowing down. LA will have to win 2 out of 3 at home to have any chance of the title, and one fun fact I read is that no team has ever come back from down 0-3 to win the World Series, so they'd better get that first win in game 3.

2018-10-24

2018 World Series Projection, October 24

Boston over Los Angeles

World Series
LAD 0-1 BOS

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 4-3 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	Win
BOS	0.6382	67.95
LAD	0.6265	32.05

With the game 1 win, Boston has a better than 2 in 3 chance of winning their first World Series since 2013, and their 4th in 15 seasons. That's not quite the best modern run ever, since New York won 4 out of 5 and 5 out of 14 starting in 1996, but still pretty good considering the parity we see now, at least among the top 20 teams or so.

2018-10-23

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 7, Final

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

There really wasn't any significant movement last night, as the New York Giants lost to Atlanta. New York was 1-5 with a 1.7% chance at the playoffs, which dropped to 0.64%, while Atlanta went from a 3% chance at their division to 4.5%. The changes were relatively large, but in terms of the whole league, barely registered on the divisional or playoff races.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	7-0	0.659	97.41	99.48	95.83	60.56	37.94	22.16
KC	6-1	0.608	77.65	95.76	83.27	46.95	25.66	13.47
BAL	4-3	0.650	58.23	77.81	61.07	37.07	22.09	12.57
NE	5-2	0.558	73.52	85.77	68.46	34.19	16.29	7.72
NO	5-1	0.562	62.49	80.34	61.42	31.50	14.62	7.06
LAC	5-2	0.558	19.76	72.97	46.48	22.45	10.90	5.17
CHI	3-3	0.565	29.23	50.74	32.65	15.99	7.65	3.72
WAS	4-2	0.512	56.83	67.84	41.07	18.09	7.57	3.28
HOU	4-3	0.524	58.71	62.97	35.45	15.86	7.04	3.10
CAR	4-2	0.523	25.40	51.83	31.43	14.11	6.10	2.72
MIN	4-2-1	0.523	33.22	51.74	30.99	13.96	6.03	2.69
PIT	3-2-1	0.530	23.98	44.45	27.13	12.53	5.69	2.54
SEA	3-3	0.555	2.59	40.17	21.94	9.86	4.80	2.29
GB	3-2-1	0.508	22.00	39.56	22.12	9.46	3.99	1.72
DAL	3-4	0.542	21.06	30.12	16.92	7.73	3.54	1.64
PHI	3-4	0.536	21.59	26.65	14.51	6.54	2.96	1.35
NYJ	3-4	0.511	11.54	23.56	12.87	5.59	2.43	1.04
CIN	4-3	0.468	15.85	33.28	16.82	6.71	2.65	1.02
DET	3-3	0.498	15.55	26.26	14.07	5.86	2.42	1.02
MIA	4-3	0.448	14.44	33.38	16.88	6.33	2.36	0.87
IND	2-5	0.507	13.61	15.81	7.49	3.19	1.37	0.58
DEN	3-4	0.502	2.53	15.29	7.68	3.23	1.38	0.58
TB	3-3	0.455	7.61	19.38	9.55	3.56	1.33	0.51
ATL	3-4	0.464	4.50	14.83	7.10	2.65	1.02	0.40
TEN	3-4	0.441	16.97	18.55	7.83	2.86	1.05	0.38
JAC	3-4	0.427	10.71	14.45	6.10	2.14	0.75	0.26
CLE	2-4-1	0.448	1.94	4.77	2.10	0.80	0.31	0.11
NYG	1-6	0.407	0.52	0.64	0.25	0.08	0.03	0.01
OAK	1-5	0.385	0.07	0.50	0.19	0.06	0.02	0.01
SF	1-6	0.401	0.01	0.38	0.14	0.04	0.01	0.00
BUF	2-5	0.320	0.49	0.69	0.20	0.05	0.01	0.00
ARI	1-6	0.329	0.00	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

2018-10-22

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 7, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

LA won big against San Francisco and retook the title of strongest team. They're now over 99% likely to make the playoffs at 7-0. Baltimore is still the strongest AFC team because their loss was close, but being 2 full games behind Kansas City means KC is a little bit more likely to win the AFC. As I've been doing for the last few weeks, I checked in on the teams at the bottom of the chart. Arizona won the Superbowl in just 466 out of my 200,000,000 simulations. The next few weeks are when we start seeing phantom eliminations, meaning I have to run a billion simulations or more just to try to hit all possible scenarios for each team.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	7-0	0.659	97.41	99.49	95.85	60.54	37.91	22.14
KC	6-1	0.608	77.65	95.77	83.27	46.96	25.66	13.46
BAL	4-3	0.651	58.29	77.84	61.10	37.08	22.10	12.57
NE	5-2	0.558	73.52	85.78	68.47	34.19	16.29	7.72
NO	5-1	0.562	63.21	80.88	61.80	31.70	14.70	7.10
LAC	5-2	0.558	19.75	72.97	46.47	22.45	10.90	5.16
CHI	3-3	0.565	29.11	51.08	32.84	16.07	7.69	3.74
WAS	4-2	0.512	56.37	67.62	40.88	17.98	7.52	3.26
HOU	4-3	0.524	58.79	63.03	35.48	15.87	7.04	3.10
CAR	4-2	0.523	25.94	52.69	31.91	14.33	6.19	2.76
MIN	4-2-1	0.523	33.26	52.12	31.19	14.03	6.06	2.70
PIT	3-2-1	0.530	23.94	44.45	27.12	12.53	5.69	2.54
SEA	3-3	0.555	2.59	40.75	22.26	10.00	4.87	2.32
GB	3-2-1	0.508	22.08	40.00	22.35	9.55	4.02	1.73
DAL	3-4	0.542	20.99	30.16	16.93	7.73	3.54	1.64
PHI	3-4	0.536	21.44	26.56	14.44	6.51	2.94	1.35
NYJ	3-4	0.511	11.54	23.57	12.88	5.59	2.43	1.04
DET	3-3	0.498	15.56	26.61	14.24	5.92	2.45	1.03
CIN	4-3	0.468	15.82	33.23	16.79	6.70	2.64	1.02
MIA	4-3	0.448	14.45	33.40	16.89	6.34	2.37	0.87
DEN	3-4	0.502	2.53	15.29	7.68	3.23	1.38	0.58
IND	2-5	0.507	13.57	15.76	7.46	3.18	1.36	0.58
TB	3-3	0.455	7.80	19.72	9.69	3.61	1.35	0.51
TEN	3-4	0.441	16.90	18.47	7.79	2.84	1.04	0.38
JAC	3-4	0.426	10.74	14.50	6.12	2.15	0.75	0.26
ATL	2-4	0.461	3.05	10.17	4.79	1.76	0.68	0.26
CLE	2-4-1	0.448	1.94	4.78	2.11	0.80	0.31	0.11
NYG	1-5	0.414	1.20	1.70	0.67	0.21	0.07	0.03
OAK	1-5	0.385	0.07	0.50	0.19	0.06	0.02	0.01
SF	1-6	0.401	0.01	0.40	0.15	0.04	0.02	0.00
BUF	2-5	0.320	0.49	0.69	0.20	0.05	0.01	0.00
ARI	1-6	0.329	0.00	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

2018-10-21

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

Alabama moved to 8-0 and slipped past Notre Dame while they were on bye. Alabama is the only 8-0 team, though there are 4 7-0 teams remaining. Ohio State suffered their first loss, to fall from #4 to #8.

Missouri got a win against Memphis, a team I had ranked slightly above them (#70 vs #77) to raise themselves up to #67. Missouri was also boosted by that aforementioned Ohio State loss, which was to Purdue, one of their earlier opponents. Purdue jumped from #88 to #61.

Nebraska got a win, so there are just 2 winless teams remaining, and none from the power conferences. UTEP seems to have a stranglehold on that #129 slot.

1	Alabama	8-0
2	LSU	7-1
3	Clemson	7-0
4	Notre Dame	7-0
5	Michigan	7-1
6	South Florida	7-0
7	UCF	7-0
8	Ohio State	7-1
9	Florida	6-1
10	Washington	6-2
11	Oklahoma	6-1
12	Buffalo	7-1
13	Iowa	6-1
14	Georgia	6-1
15	Kentucky	6-1
16	Texas	6-1
17	Washington State	6-1
18	San Diego State	6-1
19	Stanford	5-2
20	NC State	5-1
21	UAB	6-1
22	Utah	5-2
23	Cincinnati	6-1
24	North Texas	6-2
25	Fresno State	6-1
26	Georgia Southern	6-1
27	Utah State	6-1
28	Army	5-2
29	Texas A&M	5-2
30	Duke	5-2
31	Western Michigan	6-2
32	Virginia	5-2
33	Houston	6-1
34	Texas Tech	5-2
35	Auburn	5-3
36	West Virginia	5-1
37	Hawai'i	6-3
38	Penn State	5-2
39	Troy	5-2
40	Miami	5-2
41	Boise State	5-2
42	Oregon	5-2
43	Louisiana Tech	5-2
44	Wisconsin	5-2
45	Syracuse	5-2
46	Appalachian State	5-1
47	Ole Miss	5-3
48	Boston College	5-2
49	Temple	5-3
50	Colorado	5-2
51	Marshall	5-2
52	BYU	4-3
53	USC	4-3
54	Mississippi State	4-3
55	Florida Intl	5-2
56	Michigan State	4-3
57	Eastern Michigan	4-4
58	Coastal Carolina	4-3
59	Indiana	4-4
60	Virginia Tech	4-2
61	Purdue	4-3
62	Maryland	4-3
63	Baylor	4-3
64	Northern Illinois	4-3
65	Florida State	4-3
66	Arkansas State	4-3
67	Missouri	4-3
68	Northwestern	4-3
69	Middle Tennessee	4-3
70	Oklahoma State	4-3
71	South Carolina	3-3
72	Nevada	4-4
73	UL Monroe	4-4
74	Tennessee	3-4
75	Iowa State	3-3
76	California	4-3
77	TCU	3-4
78	Ohio	4-3
79	Vanderbilt	3-5
80	Wake Forest	3-4
81	Memphis	4-4
82	Arizona State	3-4
83	Georgia Tech	3-4
84	Pittsburgh	3-4
85	Florida Atlantic	3-4
86	Kansas State	3-4
87	Minnesota	3-4
88	Air Force	3-4
89	Southern Mississippi	3-3
90	SMU	3-4
91	Toledo	3-4
92	Illinois	3-4
93	Colorado State	3-5
94	Akron	3-3
95	New Mexico	3-4
96	Louisiana	3-4
97	Miami (OH)	3-5
98	UCLA	2-5
99	Arizona	3-5
100	Georgia State	2-5
101	Charlotte	3-4
102	Wyoming	2-6
103	Tulane	2-5
104	Ball State	3-5
105	East Carolina	2-5
106	UMass	2-6
107	Louisville	2-5
108	Arkansas	2-6
109	UTSA	3-5
110	South Alabama	2-5
111	Navy	2-5
112	Kansas	2-5
113	UConn	1-6
114	UNLV	2-5
115	Nebraska	1-6
116	Tulsa	1-6
117	New Mexico State	2-6
118	Old Dominion	2-6
119	North Carolina	1-5
120	Central Michigan	1-7
121	Oregon State	1-6
122	Rice	1-7
123	Bowling Green	1-7
124	Rutgers	1-7
125	San Jose State	0-7
126	Western Kentucky	1-6
127	Kent State	1-7
128	Texas State	1-6
129	UTEP	0-7

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame

2018 World Series Projection, October 21

Boston over Los Angeles

World Series
LAD 0-0 BOS

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 4-3 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	Win
BOS	0.6382	52.75
LAD	0.6265	47.25

I've got Boston just slightly favored above LA. As I'm sure you'll read multiple places, Boston beat the Brooklyn Robins in the 1916 World Series, a team that would eventually become the Brooklyn then LA Dodgers. We'll have to wait until Tuesday for the series to start, but at least it will be on network TV, and I won't have to mess around trying to get various streaming services to work.

2018-10-20

2018 World Series Projection, October 20

Boston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 3-3 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	WS	Win
BOS	0.6382	100.00	58.80
LAD	0.6265	56.58	26.74
MIL	0.5627	43.42	14.46

We're down to game 7 in the NLCS, after Milwaukee never really let game 6 be in doubt. Scoring 4 runs in the first is a good way to put your opponent back on their heels for the remainder of the game. Going to 7 games isn't going to help the winner set up their rotation for the World Series. Fortunately for them, the NL started a day earlier, because as it is, Boston will have 4 days off, compared to 2 for the NL winner.

2018-10-19

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

Denver trounced Arizona, but is still only 3-4, so they didn't really mess with the end projection much. Arizona is now down to 421 Superbowl wins out of 100,000,000.

I did find a mistake I made last week, which renders my Week 6 Sunday and Monday numbers incorrect. I manually put the scores into a text file for processing, and accidentally gave Chicago 38 points (and thus a win) instead of 28 points, and the loss, against Miami. They're now properly down at 3-2, and Miami up to 4-2. I did a quick check of Monday's numbers vs what I projected with the error, and the difference wasn't huge, so I'm not going to go back and fix them, but I will keep the correct score in there going forward, and I'll check my results a little more closely against the standings in the future.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	6-0	0.622	93.57	98.15	91.17	53.93	31.48	17.61
BAL	4-2	0.646	57.77	81.54	67.53	42.09	25.90	15.09
KC	5-1	0.561	68.76	84.93	68.07	35.57	17.81	8.82
CHI	3-2	0.580	49.77	69.69	50.49	26.68	13.67	7.07
NO	4-1	0.557	60.95	74.85	54.08	27.34	13.26	6.55
NE	4-2	0.548	49.62	67.63	49.88	25.00	12.11	5.84
LAC	4-2	0.554	25.95	59.05	39.97	20.13	9.94	4.85
CIN	4-2	0.527	25.59	53.74	35.31	16.58	7.84	3.62
DAL	3-3	0.549	35.99	48.60	30.16	14.67	7.04	3.43
SEA	3-3	0.556	6.12	45.51	25.61	12.19	6.07	2.99
PHI	3-3	0.544	30.29	42.00	25.38	12.18	5.79	2.79
NYJ	3-3	0.548	22.54	37.19	23.60	11.62	5.66	2.72
WAS	3-2	0.505	32.89	50.09	29.83	13.15	5.70	2.52
PIT	3-2-1	0.530	14.37	37.31	23.25	10.98	5.22	2.42
CAR	3-2	0.514	25.54	43.32	25.49	11.47	5.09	2.30
GB	3-2-1	0.508	23.03	43.83	25.17	11.14	4.89	2.18
MIA	4-2	0.469	26.34	44.71	26.59	11.02	4.48	1.81
HOU	3-3	0.496	36.86	40.70	21.46	9.31	4.00	1.72
MIN	3-2-1	0.484	16.91	32.98	17.86	7.49	3.11	1.31
JAC	3-3	0.459	29.10	33.01	16.23	6.47	2.55	1.01
TEN	3-3	0.443	26.97	28.96	12.97	4.98	1.89	0.72
DET	2-3	0.478	10.29	18.95	9.75	4.01	1.66	0.69
DEN	3-4	0.502	5.10	13.46	7.21	3.21	1.42	0.62
TB	2-3	0.453	7.99	15.58	7.46	2.87	1.11	0.44
ATL	2-4	0.461	5.52	12.45	5.89	2.29	0.91	0.36
CLE	2-3-1	0.454	2.28	7.68	3.80	1.51	0.61	0.24
IND	1-5	0.453	7.07	7.51	3.15	1.23	0.48	0.19
SF	1-5	0.447	0.30	2.37	1.02	0.38	0.15	0.06
NYG	1-5	0.414	0.83	1.57	0.63	0.21	0.08	0.03
BUF	2-4	0.365	1.50	2.09	0.77	0.24	0.07	0.02
OAK	1-5	0.385	0.19	0.51	0.20	0.07	0.02	0.01
ARI	1-6	0.329	0.01	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

2018 World Series Projection, October 19

Boston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 3-2 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	WS	Win
BOS	0.6382	100.00	55.38
LAD	0.6265	81.15	38.34
MIL	0.5627	18.85	6.28

Boston wrapped up the ALCS, and the NLCS will finish tonight or Saturday. Boston will be favored going into the start of the World Series either way.

2018-10-18

2018 World Series Projection, October 18

Boston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-3 BOS
LAD 3-2 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	16.23	10.53
BOS	0.6382	83.77	46.39
LAD	0.6265	81.15	37.06
MIL	0.5627	18.85	6.02

Boston and LA are both just one win from the World Series. Boston will get up to 3 chances, while LA has to win one of the next 2 games. The NL has a break today, but the ALCS could end as early as tonight.

2018-10-17

2018 World Series Projection, October 17

Boston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-2 BOS
LAD 2-2 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	38.36	25.93
BOS	0.6382	61.64	35.96
LAD	0.6265	59.82	26.03
MIL	0.5627	40.18	12.08

Boston blew out Houston to take over the AL lead, and LA took 13 innings to tie up the series with Milwaukee and retake the NL projection lead. Both teams go back at it tonight, and we'll have LCS games through at least Friday now.

2018-10-16

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 6, Final

Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

At 3-2-1, Green Bay is in the middle of the pack, so they didn't change the projection very much with their win over San Francisco. They took a few percentage points off the Division title chances of Chicago, but remain below a 2% shot of winning the Super Bowl, although they've moved just ahead of Houston, 1 spot higher than before. On the other end of Monday's game, San Francisco lost one spot to fall behind Denver, down to an 0.05% chance of winning it all.

Also, yesterday I said Arizona only won the Super Bowl 416 out of 100 million times, but I was reading my raw numbers wrong. That's how many times they become the NFC #1 seed, presumably at 11-5. I showed them winning the Super Bowl 4931 times, which still displays a 0.00% in my chart.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	6-0	0.622	93.41	97.92	89.62	52.76	30.32	16.91
BAL	4-2	0.646	56.63	82.76	68.45	42.54	26.09	15.08
CHI	4-1	0.591	69.60	85.63	68.19	37.28	19.44	10.24
KC	5-1	0.561	69.87	86.97	69.95	36.44	18.14	8.90
NO	4-1	0.557	61.06	74.32	52.04	25.75	12.42	6.12
NE	4-2	0.548	57.17	71.31	52.41	26.15	12.63	6.03
LAC	4-2	0.554	28.10	64.70	43.89	22.02	10.81	5.23
CIN	4-2	0.527	26.18	57.80	37.92	17.70	8.31	3.80
DAL	3-3	0.549	35.99	47.93	28.96	13.79	6.58	3.19
NYJ	3-3	0.548	27.61	40.80	25.52	12.52	6.08	2.90
SEA	3-3	0.556	6.22	43.27	24.03	11.33	5.57	2.73
PIT	3-2-1	0.530	14.82	41.63	25.93	12.17	5.74	2.64
PHI	3-3	0.544	30.30	41.32	24.34	11.44	5.40	2.59
WAS	3-2	0.505	32.89	49.19	28.53	12.33	5.31	2.34
CAR	3-2	0.514	25.60	42.53	24.25	10.69	4.71	2.12
GB	3-2-1	0.508	13.61	40.39	22.08	9.57	4.18	1.85
HOU	3-3	0.496	37.98	42.63	22.65	9.78	4.19	1.78
MIN	3-2-1	0.484	10.37	30.52	15.89	6.53	2.70	1.13
JAC	3-3	0.459	28.82	33.41	16.50	6.53	2.57	1.00
MIA	3-3	0.451	13.17	23.68	12.36	4.87	1.90	0.73
TEN	3-3	0.443	26.27	28.76	13.03	4.96	1.88	0.70
DET	2-3	0.478	6.42	16.32	8.18	3.32	1.36	0.56
TB	2-3	0.453	8.02	15.13	6.99	2.62	1.01	0.39
ATL	2-4	0.461	5.32	11.42	5.26	2.00	0.79	0.31
CLE	2-3-1	0.454	2.37	9.29	4.59	1.81	0.72	0.28
IND	1-5	0.453	6.93	7.51	3.14	1.21	0.47	0.18
DEN	2-4	0.432	1.81	5.44	2.46	0.92	0.34	0.13
SF	1-5	0.447	0.32	2.21	0.93	0.35	0.13	0.05
BUF	2-4	0.365	2.05	2.66	0.96	0.30	0.09	0.03
NYG	1-5	0.414	0.82	1.46	0.57	0.19	0.07	0.02
OAK	1-5	0.385	0.22	0.64	0.25	0.08	0.03	0.01
ARI	1-5	0.375	0.05	0.45	0.15	0.04	0.01	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

2018 World Series Projection, October 16

Houston over Milwaukee

League Championship Series
HOU 1-1 BOS
LAD 1-2 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	58.48	40.86
BOS	0.6382	41.52	25.27
LAD	0.6265	41.71	17.33
MIL	0.5627	58.29	16.54

Milwaukee won game 3, and with a 2-1 lead is now favored in the NLCS again. LA got shut out and only managed 5 hits. However, they only allowed 7 hits for Milwaukee, those just happened to be stacked together enough to allow 4 runs as well. The ALCS resumes tonight, and we'll have 2 games a day for at least the next 2 days.

2018-10-15

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

Baltimore shut out Tennessee, which in my system skyrockets your strength. They are now the strongest team, though not the most likely to make and win the Super Bowl. That title still belongs to LA, who eked out a win against Denver. However, in a head to head matchup, Baltimore would win. Hence why the matchup projection and table seem incongruous. I'm getting close to the point where I will need to start running more simulations, because today Arizona won the Superbowl in just 416 out of 100 million runs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	6-0	0.621	93.12	97.89	89.66	52.84	30.36	16.93
BAL	4-2	0.646	56.62	82.75	68.43	42.54	26.08	15.07
CHI	4-1	0.591	72.15	86.32	68.93	37.72	19.67	10.36
KC	5-1	0.561	69.87	86.97	69.94	36.43	18.13	8.89
NO	4-1	0.557	61.04	74.77	52.49	25.97	12.53	6.17
NE	4-2	0.548	57.18	71.35	52.46	26.17	12.65	6.04
LAC	4-2	0.554	28.11	64.69	43.89	22.02	10.81	5.22
CIN	4-2	0.527	26.19	57.78	37.90	17.69	8.31	3.80
DAL	3-3	0.549	35.99	48.46	29.36	13.98	6.67	3.23
NYJ	3-3	0.548	27.61	40.83	25.54	12.52	6.08	2.91
SEA	3-3	0.556	6.17	44.23	24.54	11.56	5.68	2.79
PIT	3-2-1	0.530	14.82	41.60	25.91	12.16	5.74	2.63
PHI	3-3	0.544	30.29	41.86	24.72	11.62	5.49	2.63
WAS	3-2	0.505	32.89	49.81	28.96	12.51	5.39	2.37
CAR	3-2	0.514	25.61	43.17	24.65	10.86	4.78	2.15
HOU	3-3	0.496	37.96	42.61	22.63	9.77	4.19	1.78
GB	2-2-1	0.502	9.70	30.42	16.09	6.87	2.97	1.30
MIN	3-2-1	0.484	11.12	31.50	16.41	6.75	2.79	1.17
JAC	3-3	0.459	28.83	33.40	16.50	6.53	2.57	1.00
MIA	3-3	0.451	13.17	23.72	12.38	4.87	1.90	0.73
TEN	3-3	0.443	26.28	28.76	13.03	4.96	1.88	0.71
DET	2-3	0.478	7.04	16.96	8.51	3.45	1.41	0.59
TB	2-3	0.453	8.01	15.55	7.19	2.69	1.04	0.41
ATL	2-4	0.461	5.34	11.82	5.45	2.07	0.81	0.33
CLE	2-3-1	0.454	2.37	9.30	4.59	1.81	0.72	0.28
IND	1-5	0.453	6.93	7.51	3.14	1.21	0.47	0.18
SF	1-4	0.451	0.67	5.24	2.28	0.85	0.33	0.13
DEN	2-4	0.432	1.81	5.43	2.46	0.92	0.34	0.12
BUF	2-4	0.365	2.04	2.66	0.96	0.30	0.09	0.03
NYG	1-5	0.414	0.82	1.51	0.60	0.20	0.07	0.02
OAK	1-5	0.385	0.22	0.64	0.25	0.08	0.03	0.01
ARI	1-5	0.375	0.04	0.48	0.16	0.05	0.02	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

2018 World Series Projection, October 15

Houston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-1 BOS
LAD 1-1 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	58.48	39.35
BOS	0.6382	41.52	24.09
LAD	0.6265	62.20	25.84
MIL	0.5627	37.80	10.72

Both series are tied 1-1, making them effectively 5 game series with reversed homefield advantage. Tonight, the NL resumes after an off day to travel to LA.

2018-10-14

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

Notre Dame remains #1, and Alabama has climbed to #2 despite only beating Missouri, who has fallen to #77.

Congrats to UCLA for winning a game, and to UTEP for holding that #129 slot for another week despite a bye.

1	Notre Dame	7-0
2	Alabama	7-0
3	LSU	6-1
4	Ohio State	7-0
5	Clemson	6-0
6	Florida	6-1
7	Texas	6-1
8	Georgia	6-1
9	Michigan	6-1
10	South Florida	6-0
11	UCF	6-0
12	NC State	5-0
13	Cincinnati	6-0
14	Oklahoma	5-1
15	Iowa	5-1
16	Kentucky	5-1
17	Buffalo	6-1
18	North Texas	6-1
19	Washington	5-2
20	Duke	5-1
T-21	Texas A&M	5-2
T-21	Hawai'i	6-2
23	San Diego State	5-1
24	West Virginia	5-1
25	Stanford	4-2
26	Washington State	5-1
27	Oregon	5-1
28	Miami	5-2
29	Ole Miss	5-2
30	Troy	5-2
31	UAB	5-1
32	Fresno State	5-1
33	Utah	4-2
34	Boston College	5-2
35	Utah State	5-1
36	Colorado	5-1
37	Georgia Southern	5-1
38	Western Michigan	5-2
39	USC	4-2
40	Army	4-2
41	BYU	4-3
42	Houston	5-1
43	Texas Tech	4-2
44	Louisiana Tech	4-2
45	Mississippi State	4-2
46	Virginia	4-2
47	Indiana	4-3
48	Michigan State	4-2
T-49	Baylor	4-3
T-49	Penn State	4-2
51	Boise State	4-2
52	Maryland	4-2
53	Syracuse	4-2
54	Wisconsin	4-2
55	Auburn	4-3
56	Appalachian State	4-1
57	Virginia Tech	4-2
58	Oklahoma State	4-3
59	Northern Illinois	4-3
60	Temple	4-3
61	Florida Intl	4-2
62	Marshall	4-2
63	South Carolina	3-3
64	Tennessee	3-3
65	Iowa State	3-3
66	Wake Forest	3-3
67	TCU	3-3
68	Coastal Carolina	3-3
69	Minnesota	3-3
70	Memphis	4-3
71	Arizona State	3-3
72	Eastern Michigan	3-4
73	Kansas State	3-4
74	Vanderbilt	3-4
75	Florida State	3-3
76	Arkansas State	3-3
77	Missouri	3-3
78	Georgia Tech	3-4
79	Northwestern	3-3
80	Middle Tennessee	3-3
81	UL Monroe	3-4
82	Pittsburgh	3-4
83	Florida Atlantic	3-3
84	California	3-3
85	Colorado State	3-4
86	Ohio	3-3
87	Arizona	3-4
88	Purdue	3-3
89	Louisiana	3-3
90	Toledo	3-3
91	Illinois	3-3
92	New Mexico	3-3
93	Miami (OH)	3-4
94	Nevada	3-4
95	Georgia State	2-4
96	Tulane	2-4
97	Ball State	3-4
98	Charlotte	3-3
99	UTSA	3-4
100	Akron	2-3
101	SMU	2-4
T-102	Air Force	2-4
T-102	Southern Mississippi	2-3
104	UMass	2-5
105	Wyoming	2-5
106	East Carolina	2-4
107	Kansas	2-4
108	Louisville	2-5
109	Navy	2-4
110	UNLV	2-4
111	South Alabama	2-5
112	UCLA	1-5
113	UConn	1-5
114	Tulsa	1-5
115	New Mexico State	2-5
116	North Carolina	1-4
117	Arkansas	1-6
118	Central Michigan	1-6
119	Oregon State	1-5
120	Bowling Green	1-6
121	Rice	1-6
122	Rutgers	1-6
123	Western Kentucky	1-5
124	Old Dominion	1-6
125	San Jose State	0-6
126	Kent State	1-6
127	Nebraska	0-6
128	Texas State	1-5
129	UTEP	0-6

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame