2018-10-19

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

Denver trounced Arizona, but is still only 3-4, so they didn't really mess with the end projection much. Arizona is now down to 421 Superbowl wins out of 100,000,000.

I did find a mistake I made last week, which renders my Week 6 Sunday and Monday numbers incorrect. I manually put the scores into a text file for processing, and accidentally gave Chicago 38 points (and thus a win) instead of 28 points, and the loss, against Miami. They're now properly down at 3-2, and Miami up to 4-2. I did a quick check of Monday's numbers vs what I projected with the error, and the difference wasn't huge, so I'm not going to go back and fix them, but I will keep the correct score in there going forward, and I'll check my results a little more closely against the standings in the future.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR6-00.62293.5798.1591.1753.9331.4817.61
BAL4-20.64657.7781.5467.5342.0925.9015.09
KC5-10.56168.7684.9368.0735.5717.818.82
CHI3-20.58049.7769.6950.4926.6813.677.07
NO4-10.55760.9574.8554.0827.3413.266.55
NE4-20.54849.6267.6349.8825.0012.115.84
LAC4-20.55425.9559.0539.9720.139.944.85
CIN4-20.52725.5953.7435.3116.587.843.62
DAL3-30.54935.9948.6030.1614.677.043.43
SEA3-30.5566.1245.5125.6112.196.072.99
PHI3-30.54430.2942.0025.3812.185.792.79
NYJ3-30.54822.5437.1923.6011.625.662.72
WAS3-20.50532.8950.0929.8313.155.702.52
PIT3-2-10.53014.3737.3123.2510.985.222.42
CAR3-20.51425.5443.3225.4911.475.092.30
GB3-2-10.50823.0343.8325.1711.144.892.18
MIA4-20.46926.3444.7126.5911.024.481.81
HOU3-30.49636.8640.7021.469.314.001.72
MIN3-2-10.48416.9132.9817.867.493.111.31
JAC3-30.45929.1033.0116.236.472.551.01
TEN3-30.44326.9728.9612.974.981.890.72
DET2-30.47810.2918.959.754.011.660.69
DEN3-40.5025.1013.467.213.211.420.62
TB2-30.4537.9915.587.462.871.110.44
ATL2-40.4615.5212.455.892.290.910.36
CLE2-3-10.4542.287.683.801.510.610.24
IND1-50.4537.077.513.151.230.480.19
SF1-50.4470.302.371.020.380.150.06
NYG1-50.4140.831.570.630.210.080.03
BUF2-40.3651.502.090.770.240.070.02
OAK1-50.3850.190.510.200.070.020.01
ARI1-60.3290.010.070.020.010.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

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