Tenets of Wilson

2016-11-13

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 11

We're running out of season, but the playoff just got more interesting. Three of the 4 undefeated teams lost this week, Clemson, Michigan, and Washington, and they didn't lose to particularly great teams, #47 Pittsburgh, #56 Iowa, and #37 USC (although they were ranked in the real polls). Clemson is now #3 and the best 1-loss team, while Michigan fell to #5. Ohio State moved back into playoff position in my rankings. We'll see if the committee gives Western Michigan any real consideration this week, after putting them 21st last week.

Missouri finally won a game, and it was a half-decent Vanderbilt team. That still only lifts them to #105, though.

Fresno State remains at the bottom after their bye, but Kansas lost to tie their record at 1-9, so maybe there's hope for them next week.

1	Alabama	10-0
2	Western Michigan	10-0
3	Clemson	9-1
4	Ohio State	9-1
5	Michigan	9-1
6	Boise State	9-1
7	Louisville	9-1
8	Washington	9-1
9	Penn State	8-2
10	Wisconsin	8-2
11	West Virginia	8-1
12	Washington State	8-2
13	San Diego State	9-1
14	Nebraska	8-2
15	Utah	8-2
16	South Florida	8-2
16	Oklahoma	8-2
18	Florida State	7-3
19	Houston	8-2
20	Colorado	8-2
21	Oklahoma State	8-2
22	Tennessee	7-3
23	Toledo	8-2
24	Troy	8-1
25	Navy	7-2
26	Auburn	7-3
27	USC	7-3
28	North Carolina	7-3
29	Western Kentucky	8-3
30	Texas A&M	7-3
31	Virginia Tech	7-3
32	Stanford	7-3
33	Temple	7-3
34	Tulsa	7-3
35	Florida	7-2
36	Louisiana Tech	8-3
37	Appalachian State	7-3
38	LSU	6-3
39	Wyoming	7-3
40	Minnesota	7-3
41	Pittsburgh	6-4
42	Arkansas	6-4
43	Old Dominion	7-3
44	Air Force	7-3
45	Georgia Tech	6-4
46	Georgia	6-4
47	New Mexico	7-3
48	Iowa	6-4
49	Ohio	7-3
50	BYU	6-4
51	Miami	6-4
52	Ole Miss	5-5
53	Memphis	6-4
54	Idaho	6-4
55	Wake Forest	6-4
56	UCF	6-4
57	Eastern Michigan	6-4
58	Baylor	6-3
59	Northwestern	5-5
60	Middle Tennessee	6-4
61	Arizona State	5-5
62	NC State	5-5
63	Kansas State	5-4
64	TCU	5-4
65	SMU	5-5
66	Colorado State	5-5
67	Kentucky	5-5
68	Indiana	5-5
69	Maryland	5-5
70	Texas	5-5
71	Arkansas State	5-4
72	South Carolina	5-5
73	Central Michigan	5-5
74	Texas San Antonio	5-5
75	California	4-6
76	Southern Mississippi	5-5
77	Mississippi State	4-6
78	Akron	5-6
79	Miami (OH)	5-6
80	UCLA	4-6
81	Syracuse	4-6
82	Vanderbilt	4-6
83	Duke	4-6
84	Texas Tech	4-6
85	Boston College	4-6
86	Army	5-5
87	Cincinnati	4-6
88	South Alabama	4-5
89	Louisiana Monroe	4-6
90	Hawai'i	4-7
91	Louisiana Lafayette	4-5
92	Georgia Southern	4-6
93	Notre Dame	4-6
94	North Texas	4-6
95	UNLV	4-6
96	Utah State	3-7
97	Oregon	3-7
98	Charlotte	4-6
99	Illinois	3-7
100	Kent State	3-7
101	Tulane	3-7
102	Northern Illinois	3-7
103	Ball State	4-6
104	Connecticut	3-7
105	Missouri	3-7
106	East Carolina	3-7
107	Purdue	3-7
108	San Jose State	3-7
109	Michigan State	3-7
110	Arizona	2-8
111	Oregon State	2-8
112	Marshall	3-7
113	Florida Intl	3-7
114	Nevada	3-7
115	Bowling Green	2-8
116	UTEP	3-7
117	Virginia	2-8
118	Rutgers	2-8
119	New Mexico State	2-7
120	Florida Atlantic	3-7
121	Texas State	2-7
122	Georgia State	2-8
123	Iowa State	2-8
124	Massachusetts	2-8
125	Rice	2-8
126	Buffalo	2-8
127	Kansas	1-9
128	Fresno State	1-9

2016 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Alabama
Week 10 Alabama

2016-11-11

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 10, Thursday

New England over Dallas

A game featuring two teams that are a combined 4-13 is usually a stinker, but at least there's a semi-interesting statistical outlier to discuss. Cleveland is now 0-10, and exceedingly unlikely to make the playoffs, but not officially eliminated. I ran 100 million simulations, and they never made it in. I then did a test run where they finish 6-10, and they made it a few times, so I knew I needed a larger sample. I ran 1 billion simulations (and promptly failed to save the results, oops), and they made it to the playoffs a few times. However, in none of those did they win the Superbowl. Obviously, if a team makes the playoffs, they have some nonzero shot of winning 4 playoff games to be champs, but for Cleveland we can say those odds are somewhere in the neighborhood of "worse than 1 in a billion".

I'm not sure if they have any chance at the wildcard, because my simulations unfortunately report percentages to 6 decimal places instead of raw numbers, and I report division and overall playoff odds (division + wildcard) instead of separating them out. Perhaps I should keep those separate in the larger report I keep for myself in the future. Anyway, the other teams in the divison have 5, 4, and 3.5 wins, so 6-10 isn't elimination just yet.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	7-1	0.658	97.59	99.08	97.08	60.43	36.94	21.12
DAL	7-1	0.651	86.13	97.57	90.71	55.04	32.78	18.38
PHI	4-4	0.615	3.19	35.57	21.08	10.77	5.83	3.05
DEN	6-3	0.602	22.06	70.10	50.39	26.62	13.66	7.01
ARI	3-4-1	0.588	23.47	36.35	22.35	11.25	5.61	2.78
MIN	5-3	0.575	55.33	69.19	46.98	23.33	11.24	5.42
KC	6-2	0.574	39.85	79.36	59.91	30.95	14.58	7.04
SEA	5-2-1	0.569	74.55	82.50	59.29	29.70	14.03	6.70
ATL	6-3	0.568	76.41	83.82	59.91	29.71	13.95	6.62
BUF	4-5	0.564	0.62	19.99	11.41	5.09	2.47	1.17
BAL	5-4	0.554	51.29	55.37	30.46	14.08	6.52	3.03
OAK	7-2	0.539	37.39	82.62	60.76	28.50	12.38	5.56
SD	4-5	0.534	0.69	14.13	7.73	3.22	1.46	0.64
PIT	4-4	0.527	35.26	41.91	21.82	9.54	4.15	1.81
GB	4-4	0.521	20.53	32.69	17.36	7.46	3.20	1.37
NO	4-4	0.506	18.75	31.72	17.02	7.09	2.94	1.21
DET	5-4	0.498	23.31	39.64	21.37	8.73	3.54	1.44
CAR	3-5	0.496	3.03	6.87	3.23	1.28	0.53	0.21
WAS	4-3-1	0.494	2.12	26.56	12.60	4.90	2.03	0.82
NYG	5-3	0.493	8.55	48.99	24.77	9.66	3.97	1.60
TEN	4-5	0.483	16.86	20.20	9.18	3.52	1.38	0.55
MIA	4-4	0.481	1.72	14.98	7.77	2.93	1.18	0.47
IND	4-5	0.471	18.38	20.91	9.06	3.35	1.27	0.49
CIN	3-4-1	0.454	13.46	14.76	6.14	2.21	0.82	0.30
HOU	5-3	0.428	62.55	63.91	27.37	9.29	3.10	1.07
LA	3-5	0.410	1.95	3.38	1.37	0.44	0.15	0.05
TB	3-5	0.409	1.81	3.71	1.44	0.46	0.15	0.05
CHI	2-6	0.391	0.83	1.40	0.50	0.15	0.05	0.01
JAC	2-6	0.382	2.21	2.25	0.73	0.21	0.06	0.02
NYJ	3-6	0.379	0.08	0.43	0.17	0.05	0.02	0.00
SF	1-7	0.355	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
CLE	0-10	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas

2016-11-10

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXIII

College football ~~will be here again before we know it~~ IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX XXI XXII

I'm still not done with this prize package. Today I've got a bunch of Bowman, which usually leads to players I don't know.

2004 Bowman #328 Blake Hawksworth
2011 Bowman Chrome Draft - Prospects #BDPP37 Nick Martini (x2)
2011 Bowman Draft #44 Mark Hamilton
2011 Bowman Draft - Prospects #BDPP7 Kenneth Peoples-Walls
2011 Bowman Draft - Prospects #BDPP66 Adam Ehrlich
2015 Bowman - Chrome Prospects #BCP84 Nick Petree
2015 Bowman - Chrome Prospects #BCP53 Corey Littrell

This scan is bookended by two players I know well, despite being Bowman. Blake Hawksworth didn't last too long, but played 2 years with the Cardinals and one with the Dodgers. Then there's Corey Littrell, who's rising fast through the minors and may see some MLB action in 2017.

2015 Bowman - Prospects #BP38 Tim Cooney
2015 Bowman - Prospects #BP84 Nick Petree
2015 Bowman - Prospects #BP123 Rob Kaminsky

Tim Cooney actually played for the Cardinals for a few games in mid-2015, but missed all of 2016 due to injury. We can probably look forward to seeing him again in 2017, perhaps after starting the season at AAA to get back in his groove.

2016-11-08

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 9, Final

New England over Dallas

Seattle stole a win from Buffalo with some questionable penalty calls and non-calls near the end of the second half, and increased their Division chances by about 10 points. They took most of that from Arizona, and a little from LA and San Francisco, who had much less to give. Buffalo fell from a meager 1.5% to 0.5%, because New England is well ahead of them and the rest of the division already.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	7-1	0.658	97.65	99.16	97.67	61.20	37.63	21.50
DAL	7-1	0.651	86.71	97.73	91.09	55.24	32.89	18.48
PHI	4-4	0.615	3.24	36.79	21.80	11.13	6.02	3.15
DEN	6-3	0.602	22.13	70.97	51.71	27.46	14.12	7.24
ARI	3-4-1	0.588	23.48	36.32	22.32	11.23	5.59	2.78
MIN	5-3	0.575	55.33	69.13	46.89	23.27	11.19	5.41
KC	6-2	0.574	39.89	80.10	61.11	31.88	15.06	7.28
SEA	5-2-1	0.569	74.54	82.47	59.21	29.65	13.99	6.68
ATL	6-3	0.568	76.42	83.79	59.83	29.67	13.93	6.63
BUF	4-5	0.564	0.55	19.93	11.69	5.21	2.54	1.20
OAK	7-2	0.540	37.31	82.96	61.44	29.05	12.67	5.69
SD	4-5	0.534	0.67	14.37	8.09	3.37	1.54	0.68
PIT	4-4	0.527	44.58	48.78	25.19	11.02	4.79	2.09
GB	4-4	0.521	20.53	32.66	17.34	7.44	3.19	1.37
NO	4-4	0.506	18.73	31.67	16.98	7.07	2.93	1.22
BAL	4-4	0.502	37.40	40.18	19.40	7.95	3.29	1.36
DET	5-4	0.498	23.31	39.59	21.33	8.70	3.52	1.44
CAR	3-5	0.496	3.04	6.85	3.23	1.28	0.52	0.21
WAS	4-3-1	0.494	2.02	26.50	12.52	4.86	2.02	0.82
NYG	5-3	0.493	8.02	48.00	24.15	9.41	3.87	1.56
TEN	4-5	0.483	16.86	20.45	9.41	3.62	1.43	0.56
MIA	4-4	0.481	1.72	16.15	8.59	3.24	1.31	0.52
IND	4-5	0.471	18.38	21.02	9.20	3.42	1.30	0.50
CIN	3-4-1	0.454	18.02	19.23	7.96	2.87	1.06	0.39
HOU	5-3	0.428	62.55	64.00	27.63	9.45	3.18	1.09
LA	3-5	0.410	1.95	3.38	1.37	0.44	0.15	0.05
TB	3-5	0.409	1.81	3.70	1.43	0.46	0.15	0.05
CHI	2-6	0.391	0.83	1.39	0.50	0.15	0.05	0.01
JAC	2-6	0.382	2.21	2.25	0.74	0.21	0.06	0.02
NYJ	3-6	0.379	0.07	0.46	0.19	0.06	0.02	0.01
SF	1-7	0.354	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
CLE	0-9	0.325	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

2016-11-07

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 9, Sunday

New England over Dallas

My superbowl teams are now also my two strongest teams, a little over halfway through the season. Dallas won and overtook both Philadelphia and Denver, who both lost. New England, on a bye week, increased their odds just a bit due partially to that Denver loss. Dallas went from a 1 in 4 to 1 in 3 chance of winning the NFC, helped by Minnesota's loss to Detroit.

Cleveland's 0-16 chances are up to 7.29%. Their Superbowl odds are at .000023%. To put that in clearer perspective, in 100,000,000 possible futures from this point forward, they'd win in just 23 of them.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	7-1	0.658	96.76	98.95	97.34	60.74	37.30	21.35
DAL	7-1	0.651	86.68	97.78	91.51	55.64	33.27	18.68
PHI	4-4	0.615	3.28	37.63	22.39	11.43	6.21	3.25
DEN	6-3	0.602	22.19	68.65	50.30	26.72	13.71	7.04
ARI	3-4-1	0.588	31.80	41.50	25.60	12.97	6.46	3.20
BUF	4-4	0.576	1.59	31.50	19.13	8.83	4.39	2.14
MIN	5-3	0.575	55.25	69.44	48.11	24.10	11.59	5.60
KC	6-2	0.574	39.98	78.29	60.03	31.32	14.77	7.16
ATL	6-3	0.568	76.39	83.94	61.86	30.99	14.54	6.91
SEA	4-2-1	0.559	64.79	72.25	48.02	23.35	10.82	5.05
OAK	7-2	0.539	37.16	80.81	60.13	28.42	12.38	5.57
SD	4-5	0.534	0.68	13.07	7.38	3.08	1.40	0.62
PIT	4-4	0.527	44.41	48.05	24.64	10.79	4.68	2.05
GB	4-4	0.521	20.66	33.24	17.98	7.78	3.34	1.44
NO	4-4	0.506	18.70	31.98	17.71	7.44	3.08	1.28
BAL	4-4	0.502	37.64	39.96	19.10	7.84	3.24	1.34
DET	5-4	0.498	23.26	40.00	22.21	9.14	3.70	1.51
CAR	3-5	0.496	3.08	7.09	3.39	1.35	0.55	0.23
WAS	4-3-1	0.494	2.02	26.67	12.68	4.93	2.06	0.83
NYG	5-3	0.493	8.02	48.58	24.66	9.62	3.97	1.60
TEN	4-5	0.483	16.87	20.00	9.12	3.52	1.39	0.55
MIA	4-4	0.481	1.59	14.66	7.82	2.96	1.20	0.47
IND	4-5	0.471	18.39	20.67	8.96	3.34	1.27	0.49
CIN	3-4-1	0.454	17.95	18.94	7.77	2.81	1.03	0.38
HOU	5-3	0.428	62.57	63.83	27.39	9.38	3.15	1.08
LA	3-5	0.410	3.34	4.56	1.84	0.61	0.20	0.07
TB	3-5	0.409	1.83	3.84	1.52	0.49	0.16	0.05
CHI	2-6	0.391	0.82	1.42	0.52	0.16	0.05	0.02
JAC	2-6	0.382	2.18	2.22	0.72	0.21	0.06	0.02
NYJ	3-6	0.379	0.06	0.39	0.16	0.05	0.01	0.00
SF	1-7	0.355	0.08	0.09	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
CLE	0-9	0.325	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

2016-11-06

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 10

My top 5 held steady, and the big News was #6 Texas A&M losing to Mississippi State. That should oust them from the College Football Playoff top 4, which I maintain they didn't belong in anyway. They fall to #11 in my rankings

Missouri lost again, game #3 of this supposedly winnable 4-game stretch. They lose 4 more places and are now #116.

Florida Atlantic won to lift themself up two positions from the bottom, and Fresno State now holds the distinction of worst FBS team.

1	Alabama	9-0
2	Clemson	9-0
3	Michigan	9-0
4	Western Michigan	9-0
5	Washington	9-0
6	Ohio State	8-1
7	Boise State	8-1
8	Louisville	8-1
9	Penn State	7-2
10	Auburn	7-2
11	Texas A&M	7-2
12	North Carolina	7-2
13	Wisconsin	7-2
14	Virginia Tech	7-2
15	San Diego State	8-1
16	Washington State	7-2
17	West Virginia	7-1
18	Temple	7-3
19	Colorado	7-2
20	Nebraska	7-2
21	Houston	7-2
22	Tulsa	7-2
23	Wyoming	7-2
24	Utah	7-2
25	South Florida	7-2
26	Florida State	6-3
27	Oklahoma	7-2
28	Oklahoma State	7-2
29	Tennessee	6-3
30	Appalachian State	7-2
31	Minnesota	7-2
32	Toledo	7-2
33	Troy	7-1
34	Arkansas	6-3
35	Western Kentucky	7-3
36	Navy	6-2
37	USC	6-3
38	Stanford	6-3
39	Louisiana Tech	7-3
40	Florida	6-2
41	Ohio	7-3
42	LSU	5-3
43	Memphis	6-3
44	Wake Forest	6-3
45	Old Dominion	6-3
46	Air Force	6-3
47	Pittsburgh	5-4
48	New Mexico	6-3
49	Middle Tennessee	6-3
50	Baylor	6-2
51	Georgia Tech	5-4
52	Georgia	5-4
53	Arizona State	5-4
54	Miami	5-4
55	BYU	5-4
56	Iowa	5-4
57	Colorado State	5-4
58	TCU	5-4
59	Kentucky	5-4
60	Kansas State	5-4
61	UCF	5-4
62	Idaho	5-4
63	South Carolina	5-4
64	Indiana	5-4
65	Maryland	5-4
66	Ole Miss	4-5
67	Texas	5-4
68	Eastern Michigan	5-4
69	Akron	5-5
70	Vanderbilt	4-5
71	Texas San Antonio	5-4
72	SMU	4-5
73	Northwestern	4-5
74	Southern Mississippi	5-4
75	Central Michigan	5-5
76	California	4-5
77	Syracuse	4-5
78	NC State	4-5
79	Mississippi State	4-5
80	Army	5-4
81	Texas Tech	4-5
82	Arkansas State	4-4
83	Cincinnati	4-5
84	Boston College	4-5
85	Georgia Southern	4-5
86	South Alabama	4-5
87	Hawai'i	4-6
88	Miami (OH)	4-6
89	North Texas	4-5
90	Charlotte	4-5
91	UCLA	3-6
92	Oregon	3-6
93	Utah State	3-6
94	Illinois	3-6
95	Ball State	4-5
96	Kent State	3-6
97	Duke	3-6
98	Northern Illinois	3-6
99	East Carolina	3-6
100	Tulane	3-6
101	Louisiana Monroe	3-6
102	Connecticut	3-7
103	Louisiana Lafayette	3-5
104	Purdue	3-6
105	Oregon State	2-7
106	Notre Dame	3-6
107	San Jose State	3-7
108	UTEP	3-6
109	Arizona	2-7
110	UNLV	3-6
111	Rutgers	2-7
112	Florida Intl	3-7
113	Nevada	3-6
114	New Mexico State	2-6
115	Virginia	2-7
116	Missouri	2-7
117	Georgia State	2-7
118	Michigan State	2-7
119	Texas State	2-6
120	Massachusetts	2-8
121	Marshall	2-7
122	Buffalo	2-7
123	Bowling Green	1-8
124	Kansas	1-8
125	Iowa State	1-8
126	Florida Atlantic	2-7
127	Rice	1-8
128	Fresno State	1-9

2016 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Alabama

2016-11-04

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 9, Thursday

New England over Dallas

Atlanta gained a little bit of ground and Tampa lost a little last night, but the game went mostly as projected. Each team moved two spots in the strength ranking. Not only did Atlanta knock Tampa's NFC South chances from 11% down to 2.5%, they also took Carolina down by 1.5% and New Orleans down about 3.5%, raising themselves about 13.5% to about 82.5%. No one else was affected very much, so we have the same projection we had Monday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	7-1	0.658	97.13	99.22	97.32	60.89	36.65	21.34
PHI	4-3	0.623	15.04	60.12	39.53	21.62	12.03	6.33
DEN	6-2	0.622	48.42	86.28	70.55	40.54	21.35	11.61
DAL	6-1	0.610	75.62	94.52	82.80	45.78	24.95	12.79
MIN	5-2	0.590	68.28	82.66	63.80	33.54	17.13	8.43
ARI	3-4-1	0.588	30.77	40.22	23.92	12.21	6.23	3.05
BUF	4-4	0.576	1.64	35.51	21.16	9.59	4.70	2.33
ATL	6-3	0.568	82.45	87.08	61.55	30.55	14.83	6.97
KC	5-2	0.561	29.89	71.12	50.13	24.40	11.14	5.36
SEA	4-2-1	0.559	62.21	69.73	44.53	21.58	10.31	4.75
PIT	4-3	0.541	65.95	69.34	39.23	17.55	7.73	3.56
GB	4-3	0.532	22.84	46.36	26.57	12.04	5.41	2.35
SD	3-5	0.522	0.36	9.77	5.23	2.06	0.90	0.40
OAK	6-2	0.522	21.33	65.61	43.21	18.78	7.85	3.47
TEN	4-4	0.498	27.39	33.91	16.88	6.67	2.68	1.12
WAS	4-3-1	0.494	3.43	27.05	13.16	5.37	2.25	0.90
CAR	2-5	0.492	2.56	5.33	2.42	0.98	0.41	0.16
DET	4-4	0.486	8.47	22.01	11.33	4.61	1.87	0.73
BAL	3-4	0.486	19.74	22.30	10.33	3.96	1.56	0.64
NYG	4-3	0.481	5.91	28.42	13.97	5.55	2.25	0.87
NO	3-4	0.478	12.54	20.57	10.04	3.99	1.59	0.61
MIA	3-4	0.472	1.02	11.00	5.54	2.00	0.78	0.31
IND	3-5	0.463	10.15	12.14	5.18	1.83	0.68	0.26
CIN	3-4-1	0.454	14.28	16.49	6.91	2.42	0.89	0.33
HOU	5-3	0.428	58.81	61.55	26.21	8.69	2.90	1.02
LA	3-4	0.422	6.72	9.76	4.09	1.42	0.49	0.16
TB	3-5	0.409	2.45	4.75	1.81	0.60	0.20	0.06
JAC	2-5	0.396	3.64	3.93	1.38	0.41	0.13	0.04
CHI	2-6	0.391	0.40	1.04	0.37	0.11	0.04	0.01
NYJ	3-5	0.386	0.22	1.82	0.74	0.22	0.07	0.02
SF	1-6	0.378	0.30	0.37	0.12	0.04	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-8	0.363	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

2016-11-03

2016 World Series Projections Wrapup

Chicago was favored pretty heavily for the entire run of the playoffs, as you can see from the giant swath of blue in this graph. They had a bit of dip when they were down 3-1 and 3-2 in the World Series, but other than that, they were the best bet the whole time. It's amazing to me that if we will have another 100-year-drought baseball team, it would take another 32 years of Cleveland not winning (if you don't count expansion teams that have never won but began later than 1948).

Worst position for Chicago: 22.49% on October 30, down 3-1 in the World Series.

Best position for Cleveland: 77.51% on October 30, up 3-1 in the World Series.

Best position for an LCS loser: 24.56% for Los Angeles on October 19, up 2-1 in the NLCS.

Best position for an LDS loser: 18.31% for Boston, before the playoffs began.

Best position for a Wildcard loser: 2.38% for Baltimore, before the playoffs began.

Finally, here are the full playoff results for 2016:

Chicago over Cleveland

World Series
CHC 4-3 CLE

League Championship Series
TOR 1-4 CLE
LAD 2-4 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

2016-11-02

2016 World Series Projection, November 2

Chicago over Cleveland

World Series
CHC 3-3 CLE

League Championship Series
TOR 1-4 CLE
LAD 2-4 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	Win
CHC	0.6682	60.81
CLE	0.5648	39.19

We're down to Game 7, and Chicago is about 60/40 favorites to win. I'm still rooting for Cleveland, though I'm a little worried their 3-man rotation, which has led to Corey Kluber pitching for the 2nd time on short (3 days) rest, might sink them against Chicago's 4 man rotation, which gives them Kyle Hendricks on normal rest. As I mentioned before, a Chicago win would make them the first team to overcome a 3-1 deficit in the World Series since 1985. Unlike that interesting stat, Fox put up a very useless stat last night. They said this will be the first World Series Game 7 for Chicago since 1945. While that's true, 1945 was also their previous World Series appearance, so it's sort of a "this is the first time since the last time" type of stat. It's more interesting that this is only their second World Series game 7 ever, unless you count their history back to the 1885 White Stockings that tied the St. Louis Browns 3-3-1. It seemed to be on the screen just barely long enough for me to read it, so I almost wonder if a producer realized how silly it sounded and pulled it a few seconds early.

2016-11-01

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 8, Final

New England over Dallas

I wrote yesterday's post assuming that Minnesota would win, saying that their margin of victory would determine if they took back the NFC lead from Dallas. As they say, on any given Monday night, any team can win. Well that's not exactly the saying, but the point is Chicago won, and Minnesota lost. Dallas is now the only 1-loss team in the NFC, with Minnesota right behind them as the only 2-loss team, if you count Seattle as a 2.5 loss team.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	7-1	0.658	97.12	99.21	97.31	60.86	36.63	21.42
PHI	4-3	0.623	15.35	60.61	40.61	22.36	12.54	6.60
DEN	6-2	0.622	48.42	86.31	70.56	40.55	21.36	11.67
DAL	6-1	0.610	75.22	94.40	83.32	46.45	25.55	13.10
MIN	5-2	0.590	68.27	82.62	65.33	34.85	17.90	8.80
ARI	3-4-1	0.588	31.28	40.78	24.73	12.77	6.56	3.21
BUF	4-4	0.576	1.64	35.53	21.16	9.59	4.70	2.35
KC	5-2	0.561	29.88	71.12	50.13	24.40	11.15	5.40
SEA	4-2-1	0.559	61.51	69.11	45.05	22.12	10.64	4.91
ATL	5-3	0.547	69.13	74.83	49.06	23.26	10.82	4.86
PIT	4-3	0.541	65.94	69.33	39.21	17.55	7.74	3.59
GB	4-3	0.532	22.86	46.24	27.50	12.63	5.71	2.48
SD	3-5	0.522	0.35	9.56	5.12	2.02	0.88	0.39
OAK	6-2	0.521	21.35	65.70	43.27	18.81	7.86	3.50
TEN	4-4	0.498	27.39	33.92	16.89	6.67	2.68	1.13
WAS	4-3-1	0.494	3.47	27.08	13.53	5.56	2.35	0.94
CAR	2-5	0.492	3.95	6.23	2.88	1.17	0.49	0.19
DET	4-4	0.486	8.48	21.96	11.68	4.81	1.97	0.77
BAL	3-4	0.486	19.74	22.31	10.33	3.97	1.57	0.64
NYG	4-3	0.481	5.96	28.30	14.38	5.76	2.36	0.91
NO	3-4	0.478	16.02	22.28	10.99	4.40	1.76	0.67
MIA	3-4	0.472	1.02	11.02	5.55	2.00	0.78	0.31
IND	3-5	0.463	10.15	12.14	5.19	1.83	0.68	0.26
CIN	3-4-1	0.454	14.29	16.51	6.92	2.43	0.89	0.34
TB	3-4	0.431	10.89	14.16	6.13	2.18	0.78	0.26
HOU	5-3	0.428	58.82	61.56	26.22	8.70	2.90	1.03
LA	3-4	0.422	6.90	10.01	4.30	1.51	0.53	0.18
JAC	2-5	0.396	3.64	3.93	1.39	0.41	0.13	0.04
CHI	2-6	0.391	0.39	1.00	0.37	0.12	0.04	0.01
NYJ	3-5	0.386	0.22	1.82	0.74	0.22	0.07	0.02
SF	1-6	0.378	0.31	0.38	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-8	0.363	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

2016-10-31

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 8, Sunday

New England over Dallas

New England got two more mentions in my milestones board below, for being the first to cross a 99% playoff probability and first to a 20% Championship probability. And Dallas took over the NFC lead for now, though Minnnesota is yet to play on Monday night. They are very favored to win that game, though, so it may take a blowout to take back the NFC lead.

I've been watching a lot of baseball lately, and I guess less football, because I was totally unaware there was another London game this week. I turned on the TV somtime in the morning, and saw game action going on. I figured it was highlights, but after about 30 seconds of no dramatic action, I realized they were live. The result, as you may already know, was a tie. I bet it's been a long time since the NFL has seen ties in consecutive weeks, and it may have never happened since the advent of overtime. It should simplify the playoff pictures a little bit, since fewer tiebreakers will need to be invoked unless 2 or more of the NFC teams with ties are involved. In the AFC, Cincinnati won't be tied in the standings with anyone unless there is yet another tie game, though they're not quite in playoff position for that to matter.

In city of Cleveland news, they've got a 63.02% chance of winning the World Series, and a 3.53% chance of having an 0-16 football team, for a total 2.22% chance of the rare "Two Championships and an 0-fer" trifecta.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	7-1	0.658	97.13	99.21	97.32	60.87	36.64	21.22
PHI	4-3	0.623	15.51	59.50	39.72	21.63	11.94	6.28
DEN	6-2	0.622	48.42	86.31	70.56	40.55	21.36	11.55
DAL	6-1	0.610	74.92	94.14	82.32	45.69	24.63	12.63
MIN	5-1	0.606	80.81	91.88	79.55	44.02	23.32	11.87
ARI	3-4-1	0.588	31.01	39.96	23.41	11.80	6.00	2.94
BUF	4-4	0.576	1.64	35.54	21.17	9.59	4.70	2.32
KC	5-2	0.561	29.88	71.12	50.13	24.39	11.14	5.33
SEA	4-2-1	0.559	61.73	68.89	42.87	20.54	9.79	4.52
ATL	5-3	0.547	69.07	74.58	46.62	21.59	9.95	4.47
PIT	4-3	0.541	65.95	69.35	39.23	17.55	7.74	3.54
GB	4-3	0.532	14.04	44.03	24.90	11.15	5.00	2.17
SD	3-5	0.522	0.35	9.57	5.12	2.02	0.88	0.39
OAK	6-2	0.521	21.35	65.70	43.26	18.80	7.86	3.45
TEN	4-4	0.498	27.65	34.21	17.03	6.72	2.70	1.12
WAS	4-3-1	0.494	3.48	26.16	12.97	5.26	2.18	0.87
CAR	2-5	0.492	3.94	6.19	2.80	1.12	0.46	0.18
DET	4-4	0.486	5.06	20.00	10.13	4.08	1.65	0.65
BAL	3-4	0.486	19.73	22.30	10.33	3.96	1.56	0.63
NYG	4-3	0.481	6.09	28.00	14.10	5.58	2.24	0.86
NO	3-4	0.478	16.00	21.99	10.42	4.06	1.61	0.62
MIA	3-4	0.472	1.02	11.01	5.54	2.00	0.78	0.30
IND	3-5	0.463	10.01	11.95	5.11	1.80	0.67	0.25
CIN	3-4-1	0.454	14.28	16.50	6.91	2.43	0.89	0.33
TB	3-4	0.431	10.99	14.15	5.92	2.05	0.72	0.25
HOU	5-3	0.428	58.77	61.51	26.19	8.69	2.89	1.01
LA	3-4	0.422	6.94	9.87	4.05	1.38	0.48	0.16
JAC	2-5	0.396	3.57	3.85	1.36	0.40	0.13	0.04
NYJ	3-5	0.386	0.22	1.82	0.74	0.22	0.07	0.02
SF	1-6	0.378	0.32	0.39	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00
CHI	1-6	0.378	0.08	0.28	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-8	0.363	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

2016 World Series Projection, October 31

Cleveland over Chicago

World Series
CHC 2-3 CLE

League Championship Series
TOR 1-4 CLE
LAD 2-4 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	Win
CHC	0.6682	36.98
CLE	0.5648	63.02

Last night I started to believe in streaks and pretty much assumed Cleveland was the winner when they went up 1-0. Chicago ultimately scored 3 and held on to win 3-2. So now we're in for some November baseball. I give Cleveland a 63% chance of winning game 6 or 7.

2016-10-30

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

Despite their bye week, Alabama held on to the #1 spot. That was certainly helped by having a very late bye, so there are very few teams that have even played 9 games, and none that are 9-0. 3 more teams suffered their first loss this week, leaving us just 5 undefeated. Nebraska lost to also-undefeated Washington in overtime. West Virginia lost to Oklahoma State, who has already lost 2 games. Boise State lost to Wyoming, who almost cracks my top 25, but will almost certainly be enough to keep them out of the playoff.

After a rough loss to Middle Tennessee last week, local Mizzou honks figured maybe they could win the last 3 of their string of 4 winnable games. They did not. They fall to 2-6 and #112.

At the bottom, Florida Atlantic lost again to hold on tight to #128. They may have a stranglehold on that position, because I have them about 1000 points behind #127, but just 23,000 separates the from #1 Alabama.

1	Alabama	8-0
2	Clemson	8-0
3	Michigan	8-0
4	Western Michigan	8-0
5	Washington	8-0
6	Texas A&M	7-1
7	Ohio State	7-1
8	Boise State	7-1
9	Houston	7-2
10	Louisville	7-1
11	Nebraska	7-1
12	Utah	7-2
13	South Florida	7-2
14	Penn State	6-2
15	Wisconsin	6-2
16	West Virginia	6-1
17	San Diego State	7-1
18	Virginia Tech	6-2
19	Washington State	6-2
20	Auburn	6-2
21	North Carolina	6-2
22	Temple	6-3
23	Tulsa	6-2
24	Colorado	6-2
25	Florida	6-1
26	Wyoming	6-2
27	Oklahoma	6-2
28	Appalachian State	6-2
29	Minnesota	6-2
30	Tennessee	5-3
31	Oklahoma State	6-2
32	Troy	6-1
33	Florida State	5-3
34	Toledo	6-2
35	Western Kentucky	6-3
36	Navy	5-2
37	Middle Tennessee	6-2
38	USC	5-3
39	LSU	5-2
40	Pittsburgh	5-3
41	Baylor	6-1
42	Stanford	5-3
43	Arkansas	5-3
44	Louisiana Tech	6-3
45	Georgia Tech	5-3
46	Ohio	6-3
47	Kentucky	5-3
48	Arizona State	5-4
49	Iowa	5-3
50	Wake Forest	5-3
51	Kansas State	5-3
52	Memphis	5-3
53	New Mexico	5-3
54	Maryland	5-3
55	Old Dominion	5-3
56	Akron	5-4
57	Central Michigan	5-4
58	Air Force	5-3
59	SMU	4-4
60	Eastern Michigan	5-4
61	Vanderbilt	4-4
62	Southern Mississippi	5-3
63	Northwestern	4-4
64	Colorado State	4-4
65	Syracuse	4-4
66	Army	5-3
67	California	4-4
68	BYU	4-4
69	Texas Tech	4-4
70	Georgia	4-4
71	NC State	4-4
72	UCF	4-4
73	Miami	4-4
74	Indiana	4-4
75	Cincinnati	4-4
76	South Carolina	4-4
77	TCU	4-4
78	Boston College	4-4
79	Idaho	4-4
80	Texas	4-4
81	South Alabama	4-4
82	Georgia Southern	4-4
83	Ole Miss	3-5
84	North Texas	4-4
85	Hawai'i	4-5
86	Texas San Antonio	4-4
87	Oregon	3-5
88	UCLA	3-5
89	Arkansas State	3-4
90	Mississippi State	3-5
91	Utah State	3-5
92	Duke	3-5
93	Ball State	4-4
94	Tulane	3-5
94	Kent State	3-6
96	Louisiana Lafayette	3-4
97	Connecticut	3-6
98	East Carolina	3-5
99	Purdue	3-5
100	Miami (OH)	3-6
101	Oregon State	2-6
102	Notre Dame	3-5
103	Charlotte	3-5
104	San Jose State	3-6
105	Northern Illinois	2-6
106	Arizona	2-6
107	Illinois	2-6
108	Nevada	3-5
109	Rutgers	2-6
110	Virginia	2-6
111	UNLV	3-6
112	Missouri	2-6
113	Florida Intl	3-6
114	Michigan State	2-6
115	New Mexico State	2-6
116	Georgia State	2-6
117	Louisiana Monroe	2-6
118	Texas State	2-5
119	UTEP	2-6
120	Buffalo	2-6
121	Marshall	2-6
122	Massachusetts	2-7
123	Bowling Green	1-7
124	Kansas	1-7
125	Rice	1-7
126	Iowa State	1-7
127	Fresno State	1-8
128	Florida Atlantic	1-7

2016 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama

2016 World Series Projection, October 30

Cleveland over Chicago

World Series
CHC 1-3 CLE

League Championship Series
TOR 1-4 CLE
LAD 2-4 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	Win
CHC	0.6682	22.49
CLE	0.5648	77.51

Fox showed an interesting stat on screen last night, that got me thinking entirely too much. Once the game was pretty much over, they said that the last 10 World Series teams to go up 3-1 had finished the job. They also helpfully pointed out the last teams to fail from that position was the 1985 St. Louis Cardinals. The first thing that struck me was that that means out of the 29 series (1994 was a strike year, remember) from 1986-2015, that means that 19 of them were either 2-2 after 4 games, or sweeps. That seemed disproportionate to me if the teams are evenly matched. 29 is a fairly small sample size, so I wrote it off to that in my head. Of course, when I worked it out, and there's actually a 50% chance of a series going to 3-1 if the teams are perfectly evenly matched, and it only goes down from there. So really the expected number of series that reach 3-1 would be expected to be at most 14 in that time period, so 10 is certainly reasonable.

I'll be rooting for Cleveland to finish off the series tonight, first because I'm rooting for Cleveland, but secondarily because no one really wants to see the World Series in November on a regular basis, right?

2016-10-29

2016 World Series Projection, October 29

Cleveland over Chicago

World Series
CHC 1-2 CLE

League Championship Series
TOR 1-4 CLE
LAD 2-4 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	Win
CHC	0.6682	48.92
CLE	0.5648	51.08

These World Series games run a little past my normal bedtime, so I always find myself checking the results in the morning even though I watched the whole thing, just to make sure I didn't dream the end. I think it stems from the time I dreamed the Blues scored something like 6 goals to overcome the Maple Leafs in an elimination game, then was re-disappointed in the morning when I saw the real score again. Anyway, I indeed saw Cleveland hang on for dear life to a 1-0 lead. It really felt like Chicago was going to win the game, even though they never broke a 36% chance of winning after Cleveland scored, according to the FanGraphs tracker. Cleveland has regained the homefield advantage, but I don't think they'll want to wait for Game 6 and 7 to win again. They're now just slightly favored in the series, about 51-49.

2016-10-28

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 8, Thursday

New England over Minnesota

We had another brutal Thursday night matchup between teams with losing records, though Tennessee at least came out of the game at .500. Jacksonville fell to 2-5. Naturally, nothing changes significantly around the top, and the same teams held on to the AFC and NFC leads. It's hard to believe this season is already at Week 8. That feels like halfway in a 16 game season, but we won't really be halfway done with the season until some of the early games finish in Sunday of Week 9, due to byes.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	6-1	0.638	81.19	96.55	89.75	53.99	31.96	17.76
PHI	4-2	0.630	34.79	66.54	50.00	28.15	15.70	8.64
ARI	3-3-1	0.610	34.55	50.14	32.57	17.33	9.21	4.87
BUF	4-3	0.607	17.00	58.15	40.65	21.38	11.57	6.05
DEN	5-2	0.607	46.92	77.06	62.95	35.53	18.68	9.76
MIN	5-1	0.606	73.07	88.04	73.87	40.29	21.25	11.16
DAL	5-1	0.600	52.36	81.77	64.52	34.24	17.90	9.28
SEA	4-1-1	0.574	61.93	73.84	51.74	25.82	12.68	6.25
ATL	4-3	0.545	62.04	65.17	36.85	16.87	7.72	3.58
PIT	4-3	0.540	64.67	68.58	40.84	19.19	8.75	3.98
GB	4-2	0.536	18.24	49.65	29.74	13.43	6.05	2.75
SD	3-4	0.535	5.61	22.29	13.52	6.15	2.79	1.26
KC	4-2	0.528	24.84	53.29	35.94	16.72	7.35	3.25
OAK	5-2	0.511	22.63	55.90	37.50	16.61	7.03	2.99
DET	4-3	0.500	8.63	30.50	16.38	6.80	2.84	1.19
TEN	4-4	0.498	32.36	38.08	19.58	8.17	3.39	1.40
WAS	4-3	0.494	6.26	22.90	11.99	4.92	2.03	0.84
IND	3-4	0.490	23.27	27.60	13.60	5.52	2.25	0.91
BAL	3-4	0.486	20.97	23.98	11.51	4.69	1.91	0.77
NYG	4-3	0.481	6.59	21.49	11.01	4.39	1.76	0.71
CAR	1-5	0.475	2.54	3.08	1.30	0.50	0.19	0.08
MIA	3-4	0.472	1.62	11.84	6.10	2.34	0.95	0.37
NO	2-4	0.471	12.47	14.52	6.37	2.44	0.94	0.37
CIN	3-4	0.453	14.23	17.66	7.70	2.87	1.08	0.40
TB	3-3	0.441	22.95	25.87	11.00	3.91	1.40	0.51
LA	3-4	0.422	3.40	6.16	2.55	0.87	0.30	0.11
HOU	4-3	0.415	40.43	43.51	18.36	6.21	2.08	0.70
JAC	2-5	0.397	3.94	4.24	1.51	0.48	0.16	0.05
NYJ	2-5	0.380	0.19	1.12	0.46	0.14	0.04	0.01
SF	1-6	0.378	0.11	0.16	0.05	0.02	0.00	0.00
CHI	1-6	0.378	0.05	0.17	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-7	0.368	0.14	0.14	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota