Superbowl XLIX Projections Recap

My projections didn't quite nail the result like last year, but they did foretell a close game, one that very nearly could have gone my way. That's not to hand-wave away the miss; I still maintain Seattle was the stronger team through the year, they just didn't deliver this time.

I looked at the graph I posted last year, and I realized it didn't have much useful information. You could see Seattle's championship chances going up each week, but that wasn't really informative without the other teams. This year, I swung all the way back the other direction. Here are all 32 teams' chances at the end of each week of play, in a nice stacked graph.

I realize this is hard to read as a graph, but think of it more like an infographic. Let the pretty (and ugly) colors amuse your eyes. You can see how promising Baltimore and San Diego were in the first half of the season. Baltimore trailed off but made the playoffs and even won one game, while San Diego just trailed off to nothingness by the end of the regular season (Week 17). Among those missing the playoffs, Philadelphia and Kansas City stand out visually to me as well, with large bars around Weeks 10-11. By week 13, or so, you can see Seattle and New England were coming on strong as other teams get eliminated.

The end of the season always triggers some retrospection, and I wonder whether I should continue to run these numbers. There are many places online with similar but more robust systems, and usually on sites completely dedicated to such things. Also, I'm really no statistician. As I love to point out to my friends, I managed to get a degree in mathematics while never taking a stats class. Sure, I studied complex numbers, differential equations, and cryptography, but the statistical analysis stuff is all self-taught. Ultimately I'll wait and see how I'm feeling about the idea when it's time to type up the 256-game schedule into a text file for 2015. If I've got the motivation to finish that step, I'm sure I'll press forward for at least one more year.


First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 17, Final)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Divisional Saturday)
First to 50% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Championship Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New England (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: New England (Week 16, Final)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]
[Week 17]
[Wildcard Saturday]
[Wildcard Sunday]
[Divisional Saturday]
[Divisional Sunday]
[Championship Sunday]