NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 14

I'm beginning to think no one's going to take down Florida State.

Mississippi State lost and fell out of the top 4, and Ohio State and Oregon each moved up a spot to #3 and #4. Marshall would have been 5 (I checked), but they lost, and fell down to #14, and that's all the playoff committee will need to exclude them. UCLA and Georgia also lost, and Georgia Tech's win over highly-ranked Georgia jumped them over Missouri, up to #5 with Missouri #6 now.

The top 8 teams in my rankings all have conference championship games to play next week, with #1 facing #5 for the ACC, #2 facing #6 for the SEC, and #3 facing #7 for the Big 10, so there are still lots of possibilities for my end of season top 4.

1	Florida State	12-0
2	Alabama	11-1
3	Ohio State	11-1
4	Oregon	11-1
5	Georgia Tech	10-2
6	Missouri	10-2
7	Wisconsin	10-2
8	Boise State	10-2
9	Mississippi State	10-2
10	Michigan State	10-2
11	TCU	10-1
12	Arizona	10-2
13	Ole Miss	9-3
14	Marshall	11-1
15	UCLA	9-3
16	Baylor	10-1
17	Georgia	9-3
18	Clemson	9-3
19	Colorado State	10-2
20	Nebraska	9-3
21	Kansas State	9-2
22	Northern Illinois	10-2
23	Arizona State	9-3
24	Auburn	8-4
25	Louisville	9-3
26	LSU	8-4
27	Utah State	9-4
28	Utah	8-4
29	USC	8-4
30	Minnesota	8-4
31	Air Force	9-3
32	Duke	9-3
33	Oklahoma	8-3
34	Memphis	9-3
35	Louisiana Tech	8-4
36	Washington	8-5
37	Georgia Southern	9-3
38	Toledo	8-4
39	BYU	8-4
40	Texas A&M	7-5
41	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-4
42	Cincinnati	8-3
43	Maryland	7-5
44	North Carolina State	7-5
45	UCF	8-3
46	Notre Dame	7-5
47	Stanford	7-5
48	East Carolina	8-3
49	Boston College	7-5
50	Rutgers	7-5
51	Iowa	7-5
52	West Virginia	7-5
53	Western Michigan	8-4
54	Tennessee	6-6
55	Western Kentucky	7-5
56	North Carolina	6-6
57	Arkansas	6-6
58	Nevada	7-5
59	Florida	6-5
60	Miami (FL)	6-6
61	Illinois	6-6
62	Virginia Tech	6-6
63	Rice	7-5
64	South Carolina	6-6
65	UTEP	7-5
66	Arkansas State	7-5
67	Central Michigan	7-5
68	Houston	7-4
69	Navy	6-5
70	Bowling Green	7-5
71	Texas	6-6
72	Pittsburgh	6-6
73	Appalachian State	7-5
74	Penn State	6-6
75	Virginia	5-7
76	Texas State	7-5
77	Middle Tennessee	6-6
78	San Diego State	6-5
79	Fresno State	6-6
80	Old Dominion	6-6
81	Northwestern	5-7
82	UAB	6-6
83	Kentucky	5-7
84	Michigan	5-7
85	California	5-7
86	South Alabama	6-6
87	Ohio	6-6
88	Oklahoma State	5-6
89	Oregon State	5-7
90	Ball State	5-7
91	Temple	5-6
92	Indiana	4-8
93	Wyoming	4-8
94	Texas Tech	4-8
95	Buffalo	5-6
96	New Mexico	4-8
97	South Florida	4-8
98	Florida International	4-8
99	Syracuse	3-9
100	Akron	5-7
101	Army	4-7
102	Purdue	3-9
103	Washington State	3-9
104	Hawaii	4-9
105	UTSA	4-8
106	Tulane	3-8
107	Vanderbilt	3-9
108	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8
109	Southern Miss	3-9
110	Wake Forest	3-9
111	Kansas	3-9
112	San Jose State	3-7
113	North Texas	4-8
114	Florida Atlantic	3-9
115	Iowa State	2-9
116	Colorado	2-10
117	Troy	3-9
118	Connecticut	2-9
119	Eastern Michigan	2-10
120	UNLV	2-11
121	Massachusetts	3-9
122	Kent State	2-9
123	Miami (OH)	2-10
124	Tulsa	2-10
125	New Mexico State	2-10
126	Georgia State	1-11
127	Idaho	1-10
128	SMU	0-11

2014 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0

Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State
Week 13 Florida State

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 13, Thursday

New England over Green Bay

Detroit's win finally truly eliminated the Giants, according to the online sources I cross-check when I show a team as eliminated. A tie or Chicago win would have kept them alive. Now I have yet another elimination that shouldn't be there: Minnesota as division champs. I still have them as possible wildcards, though. They can go as high as 9-7, but the winner of Green Bay and Detroit would seem to hold the tiebreaker over Minnesota, if they also finish 9-7. Green Bay and Detroit could tie, though, and both finish 8-7-1, and behind the Vikings.

I suppose I should reintroduce ties into my simulations, but even a 1% chance seems very high, given that there has been 1 per year (1 in 256) since 2012, and only 5 since 2002, the 32-team era. But, with only a 1% chance of a tie, it's still rather unlikely the NFC North Champion Minnesota scenario would have come up.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-2	0.688	96.496	98.437	93.715	55.491	32.669	18.547
GB	8-3	0.671	62.661	89.427	71.665	41.031	23.326	12.537
BAL	7-4	0.665	33.794	60.432	38.986	20.847	11.192	6.069
SEA	8-4	0.657	28.697	78.490	56.940	31.504	17.037	8.904
PHI	9-3	0.646	86.978	92.066	71.157	38.467	20.597	10.506
KC	7-4	0.641	24.161	65.462	42.066	21.660	10.990	5.671
IND	7-4	0.629	93.975	94.226	56.828	28.635	14.082	7.080
ARI	9-2	0.604	69.680	97.038	83.920	41.839	19.752	9.197
DEN	8-3	0.595	67.235	86.860	65.475	31.344	13.890	6.493
BUF	6-5	0.591	2.709	12.492	6.398	2.836	1.322	0.614
MIA	5-6	0.580	0.795	7.329	3.530	1.537	0.704	0.319
SD	7-4	0.564	8.605	29.785	15.716	6.707	2.887	1.260
DET	8-4	0.561	37.321	75.928	45.473	19.930	8.667	3.665
DAL	8-4	0.556	13.022	49.328	26.564	11.426	4.916	2.056
CLE	7-4	0.551	14.487	30.985	15.644	6.428	2.657	1.126
PIT	7-4	0.546	21.238	45.890	24.662	10.046	4.068	1.705
HOU	5-6	0.535	6.025	10.261	4.507	1.782	0.724	0.296
CIN	7-3-1	0.526	30.481	57.841	32.473	12.688	4.813	1.923
SF	7-5	0.512	1.622	16.441	7.590	2.937	1.150	0.432
NO	4-7	0.504	53.518	53.518	21.010	7.883	2.949	1.086
ATL	4-7	0.464	34.392	34.392	12.294	4.172	1.412	0.470
MIN	4-7	0.405	-	0.014	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
CHI	6-6	0.392	0.018	1.205	0.351	0.097	0.027	0.007
WAS	3-8	0.386	-	0.000	0.000	-	-	-
NYG	3-8	0.385	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	4-7	0.351	0.001	0.064	0.016	0.004	0.001	0.000
CAR	3-7-1	0.341	11.964	11.964	2.985	0.702	0.164	0.038
TB	2-9	0.326	0.125	0.125	0.030	0.007	0.002	0.000
TEN	2-9	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-10	0.288	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-9	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-10	0.245	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]

2013 Allen and Ginter Set, Part II

As I mentioned in my last post of Allen and Ginter cards, I bought an almost-complete Allen and Ginter set (minus Puig), along with a separate purchase of the 50 Short Prints. Before I file it away with my "sorted" cards, here are the rest of the Cardinals from the set.

2013 Allen and Ginter
#108 Bob Gibson
#115 Stan Musial
#139 Red Schoendienst
#161 Enos Slaughter
#254 Lou Brock
#341 Ozzie Smith

6 Hall of Fame cards is a pretty good number out of a single set that mostly features current players. These players all have numbers retired by the Cardinals.

2013 Allen and Ginter
#125 Matt Holliday
#172 Jon Jay
#276 Lance Lynn
#283 Jason Motte
#340 Yadier Molina
#342 Adam Wainwright

There were also 6 Cardinals pictured in uniform in the set that are still on the team, though Motte hasn't been re-signed yet. Everyone else will be back, though.

2013 Allen and Ginter
#96 Jayson Heyward

Finally, here I have the newest Cardinal, Jason Heyward. I'll be interested to see how his 2015 goes, since it's his contract year, and what that ultimately means for his next contract, whether its with St. Louis or elsewhere. His acquisition puts 2 2014 Gold Glovers in the Cardinals' 2015 lineup, and may be the tipping point to make me decide to attend the Cardinals' Winter Warmup this year, to get an in-person autograph before he even plays his first game here.

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 12, Final

New England over Green Bay

The reason I had trouble finding the right combination of games to get the Giants in the playoffs is that it likely involves someone tying in order to keep 1 or 2 teams at 7-8-1 and just behind the Giants best possible record of 8-8 . It's clear that they would have to be a wildcard, since both Dallas and Philadelphia have won 8 games, and they still have a game to play against each other. One of them will have to be at least 8-7-1, which will beat the Giants.

After some simulating and searching, the answer lies in the very next game - Chicago at Detroit. A tie in that game opens up the possibility of the Giants making the playoffs with no further ties. It would appear that a Detroit win would eliminate the Giants, through an extremely complex set of possible tiebreaker pairings (and triplets). A Chicago win keeps them alive, but requires the Detroit at Chicago game in a few weeks to be a tie. Given the unlikely nature of ties, Giants fans had better be rooting for one this week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-2	0.688	96.498	98.448	93.783	55.529	32.696	19.060
GB	8-3	0.671	74.547	90.376	75.149	44.707	26.336	14.154
BAL	7-4	0.665	33.805	60.588	39.136	20.934	11.238	6.265
KC	7-4	0.641	24.241	65.618	42.177	21.722	11.020	5.858
IND	7-4	0.629	93.721	93.966	56.392	28.393	13.965	7.239
SEA	7-4	0.622	18.026	61.724	41.026	21.327	10.951	5.300
PHI	8-3	0.608	57.951	75.695	53.460	26.947	13.647	6.420
ARI	9-2	0.604	74.209	96.857	85.669	44.780	21.872	10.181
DAL	8-3	0.598	42.049	74.711	51.284	25.163	12.375	5.692
DEN	8-3	0.595	67.468	87.000	65.667	31.446	13.932	6.727
BUF	6-5	0.591	2.707	12.572	6.447	2.857	1.332	0.640
MIA	5-6	0.580	0.794	7.377	3.555	1.548	0.709	0.332
SD	7-4	0.564	8.292	28.953	15.243	6.502	2.800	1.264
CLE	7-4	0.551	14.481	31.116	15.715	6.456	2.668	1.171
SF	7-4	0.549	7.763	40.671	23.464	10.330	4.512	1.855
PIT	7-4	0.546	21.237	45.929	24.683	10.053	4.070	1.768
HOU	5-6	0.535	6.279	10.461	4.597	1.819	0.739	0.313
CIN	7-3-1	0.526	30.477	57.971	32.606	12.742	4.832	2.002
DET	7-4	0.519	24.768	52.473	29.128	12.039	4.941	1.888
NO	4-7	0.504	52.859	52.859	21.753	8.437	3.273	1.205
ATL	4-7	0.464	34.800	34.800	13.038	4.603	1.622	0.539
CHI	6-5	0.423	0.685	7.382	2.727	0.857	0.274	0.081
MIN	4-7	0.405	0.000	0.017	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
WAS	3-8	0.386	-	0.000	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-8	0.385	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	4-7	0.351	0.001	0.094	0.025	0.006	0.002	0.000
CAR	3-7-1	0.341	12.197	12.197	3.235	0.792	0.194	0.045
TB	2-9	0.326	0.145	0.145	0.036	0.009	0.002	0.000
TEN	2-9	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-10	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-9	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-10	0.245	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New England over Green Bay

Arizona's loss and Green Bay's high point differential has the Packers on top of the NFC, and the favored teams are finally the strongest teams. Tennessee and Jacksonville are both eliminated from the playoffs. The Jets had few enough playoff appearances in the 1 billion simulations that they never made it to the Superbowl, and Washington never got out of the first round. None of my simulations showed the Giants making the playoffs, and I even tried to create a scenario in which they would, but I couldn't find one. I'm convinced it would require some ties, which I don't have in my simulations, as well as some 3-way or 4-way tiebreakers. But much like the Raiders who were technically alive a few weeks ago, I'm sure their official elimination will come very soon.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-2	0.688	98.111	99.054	94.733	56.520	33.524	19.529
GB	8-3	0.671	75.461	91.174	76.298	45.339	26.678	14.405
BAL	6-4	0.656	25.272	50.891	31.597	16.458	8.710	4.765
KC	7-4	0.641	23.251	67.285	43.195	22.354	11.419	6.066
IND	7-4	0.629	93.654	93.966	56.412	28.575	14.142	7.324
SEA	7-4	0.622	18.026	61.432	40.429	20.972	10.750	5.231
PHI	8-3	0.608	57.903	75.618	52.926	26.591	13.439	6.356
ARI	9-2	0.604	74.132	96.802	85.242	44.408	21.652	10.134
DAL	8-3	0.598	42.097	74.684	50.870	24.886	12.221	5.651
DEN	8-3	0.595	68.894	89.515	68.625	33.247	14.786	7.133
MIA	5-6	0.580	0.752	7.806	3.788	1.642	0.757	0.354
SD	7-4	0.564	7.854	30.378	15.972	6.822	2.956	1.333
CLE	7-4	0.551	17.149	36.128	18.372	7.556	3.139	1.377
SF	7-4	0.549	7.842	40.589	23.141	10.167	4.433	1.834
PIT	7-4	0.546	23.055	47.641	25.627	10.482	4.270	1.854
HOU	5-6	0.535	6.346	11.357	5.028	1.987	0.814	0.344
CIN	7-3-1	0.526	34.524	60.390	34.214	13.457	5.130	2.123
DET	7-4	0.519	23.939	52.337	28.891	11.900	4.874	1.874
NO	4-6	0.516	62.162	62.163	26.372	10.532	4.213	1.612
BUF	5-5	0.514	1.136	5.587	2.436	0.901	0.355	0.143
ATL	4-7	0.464	28.456	28.456	10.667	3.761	1.325	0.443
CHI	6-5	0.423	0.600	7.257	2.646	0.829	0.264	0.079
MIN	4-7	0.405	0.000	0.016	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
WAS	3-8	0.386	-	0.000	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-8	0.385	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	4-7	0.351	0.001	0.089	0.023	0.006	0.002	0.000
CAR	3-7-1	0.341	9.285	9.285	2.465	0.602	0.148	0.034
TB	2-9	0.326	0.097	0.097	0.024	0.006	0.001	0.000
NYJ	2-8	0.326	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	-	-
TEN	2-9	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-10	0.288	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-10	0.245	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

My top 3 all stayed the same this week, but Oregon fell from #4 to #5, and Ohio State rose to #4. Even though it wasn't an impressive win, Marshall won again to go 11-0, and is all the way up to #6 in my rankings. If the polls give them a similar jump, I think we'll be in for a controversial playoff selection, whether they are in or out.

Missouri beat Tennessee in a game that was a little tense, then felt well in-hand, then got tense again when Mizzou missed a PAT which caused their lead to be only 16 points, Tennessee scored a TD and 2 point conversion, and seemed to recover the first onside kick. An offsides by Mizzou forced a re-kick - which seems odd to me, Tennessee should have had the option to get the result of the play - and Missouri recovered and ultimately finished out the victory. With more win they'll win the SEC East, and promptly lose to Alabama.

Apparently I was too eager to get my FBS list for 2014. I saw a mention of "all 128" FBS teams this week, and since I like to note the bottom of my rankings, I knew I had only 127 in my list. After a bit of digging, I saw that I was missing Old Dominion. This hasn't made the rankings wrong to any extreme, since their games still counted. It just meant Old Dominion was filtered out when I listed the top to bottom rankings. So everyone worse than them should have been one lower, but the relative rankings were correct, and anyone above them was exactly correct. I believe their highest rank would have been #40 in week 4, so nothing of true consequence was affected.

So, today, SMU falls to a new low: #128! Hang in there, Mustangs; even the Rams won a Superbowl in 2000 after a terrible late 90s.

1	Florida State	11-0
2	Alabama	10-1
3	Mississippi State	10-1
4	Ohio State	10-1
5	Oregon	10-1
6	Marshall	11-0
7	UCLA	9-2
8	Georgia	9-2
9	Missouri	9-2
10	Georgia Tech	9-2
11	Wisconsin	9-2
12	TCU	9-1
13	Michigan State	9-2
14	Colorado State	10-1
15	Boise State	9-2
16	Auburn	8-3
17	Arizona	9-2
18	Ole Miss	8-3
19	Arizona State	9-2
20	Baylor	9-1
21	Kansas State	8-2
22	Clemson	8-3
23	Utah State	9-3
24	Nebraska	8-3
25	Minnesota	8-3
26	Northern Illinois	9-2
27	Louisville	8-3
28	Oklahoma	8-3
29	LSU	7-4
30	Texas A&M	7-4
31	Utah	7-4
32	Maryland	7-4
33	Duke	8-3
34	Notre Dame	7-4
35	Memphis	8-3
36	USC	7-4
37	Air Force	8-3
38	Washington	7-5
39	Iowa	7-4
40	Western Michigan	8-3
41	Toledo	7-4
42	Georgia Southern	8-3
43	Arkansas	6-5
44	Louisiana Tech	7-4
45	North Carolina	6-5
46	Louisiana-Lafayette	7-4
47	Miami (FL)	6-5
48	Cincinnati	7-3
49	Florida	6-4
50	BYU	7-4
51	UCF	7-3
52	East Carolina	7-3
53	West Virginia	6-5
54	Rice	7-4
55	South Carolina	6-5
56	North Carolina State	6-5
57	Boston College	6-5
58	Tennessee	5-6
59	Stanford	6-5
60	Bowling Green	7-4
61	Central Michigan	7-5
62	Rutgers	6-5
63	Texas	6-5
64	Nevada	6-5
65	Penn State	6-5
66	Virginia	5-6
67	Illinois	5-6
68	Virginia Tech	5-6
69	Northwestern	5-6
70	Arkansas State	6-5
71	Middle Tennessee	6-5
72	Houston	6-4
73	Western Kentucky	6-5
74	Kentucky	5-6
75	San Diego State	6-5
76	Appalachian State	6-5
77	California	5-6
78	Michigan	5-6
79	South Alabama	6-5
80	UTEP	6-5
81	Pittsburgh	5-6
82	Navy	5-5
83	Oklahoma State	5-6
84	Texas State	6-5
85	Oregon State	5-6
86	UAB	5-6
87	Fresno State	5-6
88	Old Dominion	5-6
89	Ohio	5-6
90	Temple	5-5
91	Wyoming	4-7
92	Texas Tech	4-7
93	Akron	5-6
94	Purdue	3-8
95	Syracuse	3-8
96	South Florida	4-7
97	Ball State	4-7
98	Indiana	3-8
99	Florida International	4-8
100	Hawaii	4-8
101	Vanderbilt	3-8
102	Buffalo	4-6
103	Army	4-7
104	Washington State	3-8
105	Southern Miss	3-8
106	Louisiana-Monroe	4-7
107	Kansas	3-8
108	Tulane	3-8
109	Wake Forest	3-8
110	San Jose State	3-7
111	North Texas	4-7
112	New Mexico	3-8
113	Iowa State	2-8
114	Florida Atlantic	3-8
115	UTSA	3-8
116	Colorado	2-9
117	Troy	3-8
118	Connecticut	2-8
119	Massachusetts	3-8
120	Eastern Michigan	2-9
121	Miami (OH)	2-9
122	UNLV	2-10
123	Tulsa	2-9
124	New Mexico State	2-9
125	Kent State	1-9
126	Georgia State	1-10
127	Idaho	1-9
128	SMU	0-10

2014 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0

Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 12, Thursday

New England over Arizona

I wonder what the record is for teams in their first game after elimination, as compared to pre-elimination. Oakland certainly tipped that balance in favor of the eliminated teams last night, waiting until their season was utterly meaningless to upset Kansas City. KC only lost by a little, so they're still the 4th strongest team. However, they were expected to win that game, so their odds of winning the AFC West just fell precipitously, and Denver's improved greatly. Even San Diego's chances almost doubled to over 9%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	7-3	0.662	53.698	87.651	68.980	40.153	22.929	12.674
BAL	6-4	0.656	30.432	53.459	35.224	19.372	10.698	5.872
NE	8-2	0.650	90.357	95.602	87.474	49.291	27.476	14.900
KC	7-4	0.641	30.451	69.111	47.718	25.939	13.895	7.407
ARI	9-1	0.631	90.451	99.099	94.623	52.858	27.939	14.502
DAL	7-3	0.594	45.251	73.877	47.778	23.034	11.217	5.392
DEN	7-3	0.593	60.423	79.534	60.017	29.699	14.087	6.796
IND	6-4	0.592	80.594	82.447	47.809	23.081	11.023	5.309
MIA	5-5	0.591	6.993	26.011	14.745	7.037	3.432	1.650
SEA	6-4	0.587	6.414	40.813	24.244	11.335	5.411	2.558
DET	7-3	0.585	45.823	81.228	57.387	27.820	13.137	6.197
PHI	7-3	0.580	54.693	71.896	44.751	20.906	9.871	4.602
SD	6-4	0.559	9.126	26.773	14.891	6.694	3.011	1.347
HOU	5-5	0.554	19.387	31.419	16.569	7.303	3.215	1.423
CLE	6-4	0.548	15.845	30.840	16.483	7.135	3.096	1.352
PIT	7-4	0.546	30.416	53.109	31.104	13.461	5.775	2.515
SF	6-4	0.539	3.116	39.349	20.715	8.655	3.708	1.577
NO	4-6	0.516	55.191	55.214	23.341	9.210	3.714	1.501
BUF	5-5	0.514	2.650	7.742	3.613	1.448	0.592	0.240
CIN	6-3-1	0.506	23.307	43.936	24.348	9.541	3.701	1.468
ATL	4-6	0.468	36.863	36.884	13.922	4.887	1.751	0.627
CHI	5-5	0.411	0.450	5.020	1.837	0.548	0.171	0.053
MIN	4-6	0.411	0.030	0.543	0.182	0.054	0.017	0.005
WAS	3-7	0.398	0.021	0.066	0.021	0.006	0.002	0.001
NYG	3-7	0.388	0.034	0.057	0.018	0.005	0.001	0.000
STL	4-6	0.356	0.019	0.358	0.103	0.026	0.007	0.002
TB	2-8	0.345	0.387	0.387	0.105	0.026	0.006	0.002
CAR	3-7-1	0.341	7.559	7.559	1.993	0.478	0.118	0.029
TEN	2-8	0.333	0.018	0.018	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
NYJ	2-8	0.326	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
OAK	1-10	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-9	0.281	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]

2013 Allen and Ginter Set

You read that title right; we're throwing back allllll the way to 2013.

I bought the full set (almost) from Nachos Grande last year, and it's been sitting on my shelf as I procrastinated entering the cards into my Zistle account. I actually purchased the non-SPs only, and this was also at the beginning of Puig-mania, so a Puig-free set was offered at a substantial discount, so I decided to take a chance that Yasiel Puig would cool off a bit, along with the prices for his cards. So far that doesn't seem to be happening, though. In any case, the set I purchased was 299 of the 300 base cards. In a separate purchase, I bought all 50 of the SPs, so I'm at 349/350, needing only a Puig to finish off the set.

I decided while flipping through the cards again that I'd go ahead and post the Cardinals like I normally do, but there were a large number of them by my criteria. I tried to split them up somewhat logically, though with all of the retired players the divisions became a bit fuzzy. Today was supposed to be players who have moved on from the team.

2013 Allen and Ginter
#5 Albert Pujols
#12 Dan Haren
#20 John Smoltz
#27 Shelby Miller
#46 Colby Rasmus
#93 A.J. Pierzynski

The Shelby Miller trade caught me off guard, and I had to re-scan my cards. Also, I don't know what I was thinking putting A.J. Pierzynski in this pile, even though he is technically a free agent right now. He could still be a Cardinal next year, though he may just as easily be playing somewhere else. Also, Smoltz retired after a partial season with the Cardinals, so one could argue he should have been in the next post, with guys like Ozzie Smith.

2013 Allen and Ginter
#183 Ryan Ludwick
#189 David Freese
#208 Allen Craig
#235 Carlos Beltran
#245 Mark Buehrle
#284 Will Clark

Will Clark's another guy who finished with the Cardinals, though he clearly had the most productive years of his career elsewhere. And Mark Beuhrle has never been a Cardinal, though I still suspect he'd give them a pretty good hometown discount. I like to track his cards just because he grew up in the same town as me.

In conclusion...these are some random 2013 Allen and Ginter cards of guys I collect for reasons not limited to playing for the Cardinals?

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 11, Final

New England over Arizona

Very little changed with the narrow Pittsburgh win over Tennessee last night, in fact, neither team changed rank by strength. Pittsburgh stole a little bit of Division winning chance from Baltimore, Cleveland, and Cincinnati, and Tennessee gave up a little to Indianapolis and Houston (and just a smidge to Jacksonville), but everyone's pretty much where they were yesterday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	7-3	0.662	53.696	87.653	68.985	40.158	22.934	12.571
BAL	6-4	0.656	30.518	51.548	33.285	17.979	9.841	5.402
NE	8-2	0.650	90.357	95.335	86.156	48.404	26.532	14.388
KC	7-3	0.648	51.687	86.661	67.669	37.693	20.342	10.989
ARI	9-1	0.631	90.353	99.080	94.567	52.830	27.924	14.363
DAL	7-3	0.594	45.253	73.896	47.798	23.044	11.221	5.343
DEN	7-3	0.593	43.448	76.670	54.429	26.346	12.437	6.000
IND	6-4	0.592	80.594	82.180	46.304	21.935	10.392	5.005
MIA	5-5	0.591	6.992	24.558	13.821	6.532	3.139	1.508
SEA	6-4	0.587	6.453	40.656	24.167	11.301	5.394	2.524
DET	7-3	0.585	45.825	81.319	57.443	27.846	13.149	6.142
PHI	7-3	0.580	54.692	71.900	44.764	20.913	9.876	4.560
SD	6-4	0.559	4.865	23.635	12.539	5.519	2.462	1.101
HOU	5-5	0.554	19.387	29.975	15.437	6.675	2.912	1.289
CLE	6-4	0.548	15.885	29.048	15.115	6.412	2.757	1.204
PIT	7-4	0.546	30.257	51.267	29.607	12.604	5.357	2.333
SF	6-4	0.539	3.175	39.368	20.740	8.668	3.713	1.562
NO	4-6	0.516	55.186	55.209	23.338	9.207	3.713	1.483
BUF	5-5	0.514	2.651	7.333	3.370	1.333	0.536	0.217
CIN	6-3-1	0.506	23.340	41.769	22.265	8.566	3.294	1.307
ATL	4-6	0.468	36.869	36.891	13.924	4.887	1.751	0.619
CHI	5-5	0.411	0.450	5.068	1.853	0.552	0.173	0.052
MIN	4-6	0.411	0.030	0.545	0.183	0.054	0.018	0.005
WAS	3-7	0.398	0.021	0.066	0.021	0.006	0.002	0.001
NYG	3-7	0.388	0.034	0.057	0.018	0.005	0.002	0.000
STL	4-6	0.356	0.019	0.347	0.100	0.025	0.007	0.002
TB	2-8	0.345	0.387	0.387	0.105	0.026	0.006	0.002
CAR	3-7-1	0.341	7.558	7.558	1.993	0.478	0.118	0.029
TEN	2-8	0.333	0.018	0.018	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
NYJ	2-8	0.325	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
OAK	0-10	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-9	0.281	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 11, Sunday

New England over Arizona

Oakland is finally officially eliminated, and New England takes over the AFC favorite spot. In the last two years, the first elimination came in week 12, with 2-9 Atlanta and 1-10 Kansas City earning the honors in 2013 and 2012.

In the NFC, the first team has reached a 99% certainty of a playoff spot, which of course is 9-1 Arizona. This is significantly later than 2012 when Houston managed it at 6-1 in week 7, and 2013, when Kansas City reached it by going 8-0 in week 8.

Earlier this week, when I saw Denver was only favored by 9.5 to 10.5 points over the Rams, I told a friend of mine that sounded like easy money, I should bet on Denver, but unfortunately there's no legal sports book nearby, nor do I "know a guy who knows a guy". The result of that game is why I don't gamble. As that game unfolded I kept waiting for the Rams collapse and for Peyton Manning to take control, but it never happened. I'm not giving up on the Rams just yet, even though their chances are pretty minuscule at this point. They do still have a game against the Raiders, so at least there's that.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	7-3	0.662	53.695	87.646	68.963	40.140	22.921	12.551
BAL	6-4	0.656	33.715	53.310	34.506	18.625	10.187	5.592
NE	8-2	0.650	90.357	95.472	86.561	48.624	26.619	14.434
KC	7-3	0.648	51.779	87.208	68.244	38.003	20.488	11.067
ARI	9-1	0.631	90.352	99.080	94.570	52.827	27.920	14.349
DAL	7-3	0.594	45.330	73.935	47.857	23.074	11.237	5.346
DEN	7-3	0.593	43.369	77.228	54.901	26.543	12.516	6.038
IND	6-4	0.592	80.551	82.278	46.643	22.065	10.439	5.028
MIA	5-5	0.591	6.992	25.485	14.321	6.751	3.239	1.556
SEA	6-4	0.587	6.452	40.672	24.175	11.306	5.396	2.524
DET	7-3	0.585	45.826	81.331	57.453	27.853	13.156	6.138
PHI	7-3	0.580	54.614	71.804	44.679	20.873	9.858	4.546
SD	6-4	0.559	4.852	24.532	12.995	5.707	2.542	1.137
HOU	5-5	0.554	19.389	30.571	15.783	6.811	2.966	1.313
CLE	6-4	0.548	17.452	30.398	15.791	6.690	2.873	1.255
PIT	6-4	0.541	24.082	42.096	23.539	9.879	4.149	1.785
SF	6-4	0.539	3.176	39.395	20.754	8.674	3.716	1.562
NO	4-6	0.516	55.208	55.231	23.350	9.215	3.718	1.484
BUF	5-5	0.514	2.651	7.664	3.528	1.391	0.559	0.226
CIN	6-3-1	0.506	24.752	43.694	23.170	8.905	3.422	1.358
ATL	4-6	0.468	36.896	36.917	13.935	4.893	1.753	0.619
CHI	5-5	0.411	0.450	5.074	1.856	0.553	0.173	0.052
MIN	4-6	0.411	0.030	0.546	0.183	0.055	0.018	0.005
WAS	3-7	0.398	0.022	0.067	0.021	0.006	0.002	0.001
NYG	3-7	0.388	0.034	0.057	0.018	0.005	0.001	0.000
STL	4-6	0.356	0.019	0.348	0.100	0.025	0.007	0.002
TB	2-8	0.345	0.383	0.383	0.104	0.026	0.006	0.002
CAR	3-7-1	0.341	7.513	7.514	1.982	0.475	0.118	0.029
TEN	2-7	0.338	0.059	0.064	0.017	0.004	0.001	0.000
NYJ	2-8	0.326	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
OAK	0-10	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-9	0.281	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

Alabama knocked off Mississippi State, and jumped over them in the rankings to #2. At #1 is undefeated Florida State. Alabama's win and the bye for Ole Miss brought them down to #8 and out of the top 4 this week.

I have nothing against Florida State, but I was really rooting for Miami to finish off their upset last night, leaving only one undefeated team, Marshall, who I have up to #9 now. Marshall's remaining games are against current #81 and #83 Western Kentucky and UAB, so their strength of schedule won't be terribly strong. And, my rankings are giving them way more credit than the playoff selection committee. I'll be rooting for them the rest of the way, partially to see if the committee would be so bold as to deny one of only 2 undefeated teams entry into a 4-team playoff.

Missouri continues to climb in the rankings, now up to #13 from #23 by beating #24 Texas A&M. Georgia is now right behind them at #14.  Missouri should be able to win their last 2 games to make the SEC title game, where I fully expect them to get stomped by Alabama. If they lose to Tennessee or Arkansas, they can't make the title game, if I understand my tiebreakers correctly, because Georgia is finished with SEC play at 6-2, and Missouri's 5-1 means a 1-1 finish would tie the teams, which would then be broken by Georgia's victory earlier this year.

Down at the bottom of the rankings, we have SMU, 0-9 and holding on strong to the last spot.

1	Florida State	10-0
2	Alabama	9-1
3	Mississippi State	9-1
4	Oregon	9-1
5	Ohio State	9-1
6	TCU	9-1
7	Georgia Tech	9-2
8	Ole Miss	8-2
9	Marshall	10-0
10	UCLA	8-2
11	Colorado State	9-1
12	Michigan State	8-2
13	Missouri	8-2
14	Georgia	8-2
15	Wisconsin	8-2
16	Boise State	8-2
17	Nebraska	8-2
18	Baylor	8-1
19	Arizona State	8-2
20	Arizona	8-2
21	Auburn	7-3
22	Clemson	7-3
23	Utah State	8-3
24	Kansas State	7-2
25	Utah	7-3
26	Duke	8-2
27	LSU	7-4
28	Texas A&M	7-4
29	Oklahoma	7-3
30	Notre Dame	7-3
31	Air Force	8-2
32	Minnesota	7-3
33	Northern Illinois	8-2
34	USC	7-3
35	Louisville	7-3
36	Louisiana-Lafayette	7-3
37	Louisiana Tech	7-3
38	Miami (FL)	6-4
39	Iowa	7-3
40	Georgia Southern	8-3
41	Maryland	6-4
42	West Virginia	6-4
43	Memphis	7-3
44	North Carolina State	6-5
45	Boston College	6-4
46	Bowling Green	7-3
47	Rutgers	6-4
48	Central Michigan	7-4
49	Washington	6-5
50	Tennessee	5-5
51	Western Michigan	7-3
52	Nevada	6-4
53	UCF	6-3
54	BYU	6-4
55	Cincinnati	6-3
56	Texas	6-5
57	Penn State	6-4
58	Toledo	6-4
59	Virginia Tech	5-5
60	Arkansas State	6-4
61	East Carolina	6-3
62	Arkansas	5-5
63	Florida	5-4
64	North Carolina	5-5
65	South Carolina	5-5
66	Rice	6-4
67	California	5-5
68	South Alabama	6-4
69	Stanford	5-5
70	Michigan	5-5
71	Kentucky	5-6
72	UTEP	6-4
73	Oklahoma State	5-5
74	Navy	5-5
75	Houston	5-4
76	Oregon State	5-5
77	Northwestern	4-6
78	Middle Tennessee	5-5
79	Illinois	4-6
80	Virginia	4-6
81	Western Kentucky	5-5
82	Ohio	5-5
83	UAB	5-5
84	Appalachian State	5-5
85	Temple	5-5
86	San Diego State	5-5
87	Wyoming	4-6
88	Pittsburgh	4-6
89	Texas State	5-5
90	Purdue	3-7
91	Syracuse	3-7
92	South Florida	4-6
93	Fresno State	4-6
94	Florida International	4-7
95	Indiana	3-7
96	Washington State	3-7
97	Texas Tech	3-7
98	Akron	4-6
99	Buffalo	4-6
100	Vanderbilt	3-7
101	Kansas	3-7
102	Tulane	3-7
103	Southern Miss	3-8
104	Hawaii	3-8
105	Iowa State	2-7
106	Ball State	3-7
107	San Jose State	3-7
108	New Mexico	3-7
109	Florida Atlantic	3-7
110	UTSA	3-7
111	Louisiana-Monroe	3-7
112	Colorado	2-8
113	Army	3-7
114	North Texas	3-7
115	Wake Forest	2-8
116	Troy	3-8
117	Massachusetts	3-7
118	Connecticut	2-7
119	Eastern Michigan	2-8
120	UNLV	2-9
121	Miami (OH)	2-9
122	Tulsa	2-8
123	New Mexico State	2-8
124	Georgia State	1-9
125	Kent State	1-9
126	Idaho	1-9
127	SMU	0-9

2014 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0

Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Denver over Arizona

Miami and Buffalo didn't affect much last night, as you might expect from a 5-4 vs 4-5 divisional matchup. New England got a slight bump in its Division Title chances due to the teams now both being 5-5 instead of Buffalo being 6-4. But, it wasn't enough to let them catch Denver atop the AFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	6-4	0.657	33.783	54.320	34.491	18.874	10.384	5.786
KC	6-3	0.640	30.770	78.549	53.995	29.035	15.509	8.360
PHI	7-2	0.634	68.842	86.569	65.748	35.856	19.443	10.115
IND	6-3	0.625	92.766	93.734	65.140	33.888	17.465	9.140
GB	6-3	0.619	31.972	66.124	43.421	22.487	11.765	5.942
NE	7-2	0.619	82.254	88.197	69.694	35.871	18.199	9.412
DEN	7-2	0.613	66.594	91.250	73.540	37.287	18.680	9.535
ARI	8-1	0.609	81.770	96.742	84.920	44.481	22.521	11.129
DET	7-2	0.600	67.293	90.994	70.980	35.828	17.870	8.673
DAL	7-3	0.595	30.940	70.337	43.609	21.416	10.586	5.077
SEA	6-3	0.593	15.019	54.378	33.066	16.136	7.900	3.775
MIA	5-5	0.592	13.004	27.711	15.311	7.348	3.518	1.718
CLE	6-3	0.580	34.020	54.150	32.741	15.242	7.063	3.367
NO	4-5	0.546	72.530	72.591	32.874	14.287	6.240	2.685
PIT	6-4	0.541	22.086	45.835	24.643	10.453	4.421	1.934
SD	5-4	0.541	2.636	18.771	9.059	3.873	1.660	0.725
SF	5-4	0.525	3.200	27.515	13.464	5.592	2.351	0.962
HOU	4-5	0.519	7.192	14.368	6.544	2.659	1.081	0.449
BUF	5-5	0.514	4.738	9.344	4.164	1.666	0.666	0.274
CIN	5-3-1	0.471	10.111	23.717	10.664	3.800	1.353	0.501
ATL	3-6	0.465	18.807	18.866	7.060	2.524	0.909	0.321
WAS	3-6	0.437	0.116	0.543	0.188	0.063	0.022	0.007
MIN	4-5	0.430	0.404	3.724	1.357	0.442	0.148	0.048
NYG	3-6	0.404	0.102	0.537	0.170	0.052	0.016	0.005
CHI	4-5	0.401	0.331	2.289	0.781	0.234	0.073	0.021
CAR	3-6-1	0.349	8.583	8.590	2.309	0.589	0.152	0.038
STL	3-6	0.339	0.011	0.122	0.032	0.008	0.002	0.000
TEN	2-7	0.338	0.040	0.048	0.012	0.003	0.001	0.000
NYJ	2-8	0.325	0.005	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
TB	1-8	0.324	0.079	0.080	0.020	0.005	0.001	0.000
OAK	0-9	0.310	0.000	0.000	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-9	0.281	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]