Tenets of Wilson: 2020-11

2020-11-30

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 12, Sunday

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

We're still waiting for a team to clinch the playoffs, but Kansas City is now over 99.99% likely to do so eventually. Pittsburgh likely could have clinched, but their game against Baltimore which was moved from Thursday to Sunday because of COVID-19, has been moved again and may not even happen. Note that these numbers all assume that all 256 games will be played and that 7 teams per conference make the playoffs, as was the plan at the start of the year. In the NFC, New Orleans got to beat up on a Denver team with no QBs, also due to COVID-19, and solidified their place on top of the conference.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	10-0	0.712	97.25	99.96	88.32	56.49	33.32	20.25
NO	9-2	0.677	99.08	99.98	85.55	53.22	32.11	16.71
KC	10-1	0.680	99.80	99.99	74.87	44.95	23.58	13.50
GB	8-3	0.607	96.89	99.17	66.38	36.00	17.53	7.82
MIA	7-4	0.659	34.35	79.37	46.21	23.21	11.89	6.53
LAR	7-4	0.603	39.41	92.65	54.29	27.41	13.46	5.95
TB	7-5	0.615	0.91	78.16	44.33	22.09	11.36	5.16
BAL	6-4	0.641	1.62	74.11	40.05	19.04	9.47	5.02
SEA	7-3	0.549	47.04	94.64	51.76	23.14	9.93	3.86
TEN	8-3	0.567	82.12	95.45	47.12	19.27	7.73	3.50
ARI	6-5	0.585	12.25	64.55	33.97	15.97	7.63	3.23
IND	7-4	0.591	17.69	58.59	28.31	11.89	5.26	2.51
BUF	8-3	0.531	64.52	89.69	39.16	14.53	5.39	2.25
CLE	8-3	0.460	1.13	71.94	25.59	7.63	2.40	0.85
WAS	4-7	0.496	35.65	36.01	14.89	5.71	2.16	0.73
SF	5-6	0.514	1.29	21.73	9.36	3.64	1.52	0.54
MIN	5-6	0.477	1.40	24.67	9.49	3.41	1.31	0.42
PHI	3-6-1	0.432	27.01	27.07	9.57	3.13	1.01	0.29
NYG	4-7	0.414	33.23	33.33	11.21	3.47	1.06	0.29
LV	6-5	0.454	0.20	24.94	8.48	2.48	0.79	0.28
CHI	5-6	0.424	1.69	20.48	6.92	2.13	0.71	0.20
NE	5-6	0.444	1.13	5.20	1.67	0.47	0.15	0.05
ATL	4-7	0.526	0.01	1.70	0.69	0.28	0.12	0.05
DAL	3-8	0.328	4.11	4.14	1.08	0.26	0.06	0.01
DET	4-7	0.368	0.02	1.40	0.40	0.10	0.03	0.01
HOU	4-7	0.446	0.20	0.61	0.20	0.06	0.02	0.01
CAR	4-8	0.460	-	0.34	0.12	0.04	0.01	0.00
DEN	4-7	0.329	-	0.14	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
LAC	3-8	0.458	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CIN	2-8-1	0.384	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	1-10	0.328	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	0-11	0.219	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans

2020-11-29

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

There were some games this week, but also a lot of games that didn't happen. We had enough action to shake up the top of the rankings, though.

#1 Notre Dame won to tie #2 BYU at 9-0 and take their place, also passing #3 Coastal Carolina. #4 Alabama has also worked its way into my top #4, giving me 2 teams that agree with the CFP rankings, and 2 clear outsiders.

#51 Missouri got to take part in a little bit of history, facing Vanderbilt and the first ever female player in a "Power 5" game. #127 Vanderbilt never got close enough to let her (or even a great kicker) try a FG, nor were their any PAT opportunities, as Missouri won 41-0.

Speaking of Vanderbilt, their loss brought them to 0-8 and may have clinched them the last place spot for the rest of the year.

1	Notre Dame	9-0
2	BYU	9-0
3	Coastal Carolina	9-0
4	Alabama	8-0
5	Cincinnati	8-0
6	Louisiana	8-1
7	Clemson	8-1
8	Miami	7-1
9	Liberty	9-1
10	Marshall	7-0
11	Iowa State	7-2
12	NC State	7-3
13	SMU	7-3
14	Florida	7-1
15	UTSA	7-4
16	Appalachian State	7-2
17	Oklahoma State	6-2
18	Army	7-2
19	Memphis	6-2
20	North Carolina	6-3
21	Oklahoma	6-2
22	Georgia	6-2
23	UCF	6-3
24	Texas A&M	6-1
25	Boston College	6-4
26	Tulsa	5-1
27	Georgia Southern	6-4
28	Texas	5-3
29	Georgia State	5-4
30	Florida Atlantic	5-1
31	Pittsburgh	5-5
32	Auburn	5-3
33	West Virginia	5-3
34	UAB	4-3
35	Northwestern	5-1
36	Tulane	5-5
37	Indiana	5-1
38	Virginia Tech	4-5
T-39	Nevada	5-1
T-39	Louisiana Tech	4-3
41	Wake Forest	4-3
42	Virginia	4-4
43	Boise State	4-1
44	Ohio State	4-0
45	TCU	4-4
46	Buffalo	4-0
47	Western Michigan	4-0
T-48	Troy	4-5
T-48	San Jose State	4-0
50	Kansas State	4-5
51	Missouri	4-3
52	South Alabama	4-6
53	Ole Miss	4-4
54	Houston	3-3
55	Iowa	4-2
56	Colorado	3-0
57	Western Kentucky	4-6
58	Arkansas State	3-7
59	Washington	3-0
60	Navy	3-5
61	USC	3-0
62	Texas Tech	3-6
63	Arkansas	3-5
64	Georgia Tech	3-5
65	Oregon	3-1
66	Central Michigan	3-1
67	East Carolina	3-6
68	Fresno State	3-1
69	Louisville	3-7
70	Hawai'i	3-3
71	UTEP	3-4
72	Ball State	3-1
73	San Diego State	3-3
74	Kent State	3-1
75	Kentucky	3-6
76	Middle Tennessee	3-6
77	North Texas	3-4
78	LSU	3-4
79	Wisconsin	2-1
80	Miami (OH)	2-1
81	Florida State	2-6
82	Charlotte	2-3
83	Air Force	2-2
84	Maryland	2-2
85	Michigan State	2-3
86	Tennessee	2-5
87	Ohio	2-1
88	Baylor	2-5
89	Wyoming	2-2
90	Oregon State	2-2
91	Duke	2-7
92	Texas State	2-10
93	UCLA	2-2
94	Toledo	2-2
95	Purdue	2-3
96	Mississippi State	2-6
97	Minnesota	2-3
98	Washington State	1-1
99	Rutgers	2-4
100	South Carolina	2-7
101	Colorado State	1-2
102	Illinois	2-3
103	Southern Mississippi	2-7
104	Michigan	2-4
105	Rice	1-2
106	Stanford	1-2
107	Temple	1-6
108	Syracuse	1-9
109	Arizona State	0-1
110	Utah State	1-4
111	UMass	0-4
112	Nebraska	1-4
113	Utah	0-2
114	South Florida	1-8
115	Penn State	1-5
116	Arizona	0-3
117	Northern Illinois	0-4
118	Florida International	0-5
119	Kansas	0-8
120	Akron	0-4
T-121	Eastern Michigan	0-4
T-121	Bowling Green	0-4
123	California	0-3
124	UL Monroe	0-9
125	UNLV	0-5
126	New Mexico	0-5
127	Vanderbilt	0-8

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU
Week 6 BYU
Week 7 BYU
Week 8 BYU
Week 9 BYU
Week 10 BYU
Week 11 BYU
Week 12 BYU

2020-11-27

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 12, Thursday

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

There were 3 games scheduled, but only two were played. Washington and Dallas were both 3-7, as was Houston, who faced 4-6 Detroit. The total playoff chances at the start of the day for these 4 teams summed to under 45 percentage points, and 40 of that is because someone has to win the NFC East. So let's ignore yesterday's games and dig into some history.

Of course, the primetime game was added in 2006, and for quite awhile before that Dallas and Detroit were the only teams to host Thanksgiving games annually. I was actually surprised the primetime game has only been around since then, as it felt to me like maybe it started in the late 1990s. I was also surprised to read that the St. Louis (football) Cardinals hosted in lieu of Dallas in 1975 and 1977, but otherwise Detroit and Dallas's streak goes all the way back to the 1970 merger (and beyond). 1967-1969 actually featured 4 games, 2 each in the NFL and AFL.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	10-0	0.712	97.45	99.97	90.24	58.14	34.82	21.90
KC	9-1	0.673	97.49	99.88	72.22	43.08	22.25	13.02
NO	8-2	0.628	92.34	99.74	79.88	45.11	25.01	11.81
LAR	7-3	0.608	49.01	95.43	61.82	33.22	17.28	7.81
TB	7-4	0.619	7.65	88.42	52.61	28.04	15.05	6.96
GB	7-3	0.583	87.42	94.37	56.48	28.75	14.09	6.00
IND	7-3	0.628	60.52	82.44	46.68	22.36	10.62	5.70
BAL	6-4	0.642	1.71	74.01	40.19	19.24	9.70	5.35
MIA	6-4	0.622	38.70	69.18	37.61	17.42	8.21	4.36
ARI	6-4	0.587	19.53	74.35	39.81	19.90	9.91	4.27
SEA	7-3	0.549	30.98	92.75	52.00	23.84	10.77	4.24
TEN	7-3	0.536	39.26	82.52	36.39	13.81	5.25	2.33
BUF	7-3	0.513	60.21	78.45	33.83	12.07	4.31	1.81
LV	6-4	0.517	2.49	51.51	21.14	7.47	2.79	1.19
WAS	4-7	0.496	41.38	41.52	16.88	6.78	2.71	0.93
CLE	7-3	0.456	0.84	57.14	20.12	5.98	1.91	0.70
CHI	5-5	0.457	10.69	31.69	11.85	4.36	1.62	0.50
PHI	3-6-1	0.432	31.74	31.77	11.01	3.78	1.29	0.37
MIN	4-6	0.475	1.84	11.71	4.55	1.75	0.69	0.23
SF	4-6	0.508	0.48	8.31	3.57	1.46	0.62	0.22
NYG	3-7	0.411	22.57	22.61	7.40	2.39	0.77	0.21
NE	4-6	0.438	1.10	2.94	0.97	0.27	0.08	0.03
CAR	4-7	0.462	0.00	1.80	0.66	0.24	0.09	0.03
DAL	3-8	0.328	4.32	4.33	1.11	0.28	0.07	0.01
HOU	4-7	0.446	0.22	0.66	0.22	0.06	0.02	0.01
LAC	3-7	0.477	0.00	0.44	0.15	0.04	0.02	0.01
DET	4-7	0.368	0.05	0.89	0.26	0.07	0.02	0.01
ATL	3-7	0.458	0.01	0.32	0.11	0.04	0.02	0.01
DEN	4-6	0.382	0.02	0.87	0.22	0.05	0.01	0.00
CIN	2-7-1	0.391	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	1-9	0.333	-	0.00	0.00	-	-	-
NYJ	0-10	0.252	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans

2020-11-24

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 11, Final

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

Tampa has been up and down all year it seems, and so have the Rams for that matter, so it makes some sense that we got a close game. Before the game, Tampa was 6th in strength and the Rams were 8th, and with the 3 point loss Tampa fell to 7th. Both remain behind New Orleans for the NFC title, but we'll probably see 2 of those 3 face off in the playoffs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	10-0	0.712	97.69	99.98	90.47	58.29	34.91	21.95
KC	9-1	0.673	97.49	99.88	71.94	42.90	22.14	12.96
NO	8-2	0.628	92.48	99.74	80.02	45.41	25.22	11.91
LAR	7-3	0.608	48.49	95.30	62.39	33.67	17.54	7.92
TB	7-4	0.619	7.50	87.52	52.84	28.23	15.17	7.02
GB	7-3	0.583	87.03	94.06	56.17	28.77	14.12	6.02
IND	7-3	0.628	61.38	83.58	47.39	22.72	10.78	5.79
BAL	6-4	0.641	1.52	73.06	39.60	18.94	9.55	5.27
SEA	7-3	0.549	32.03	93.08	53.53	24.64	11.14	4.38
MIA	6-4	0.622	38.68	69.14	37.58	17.40	8.20	4.35
ARI	6-4	0.587	19.00	73.51	39.90	20.02	9.98	4.30
TEN	7-3	0.536	38.53	82.85	36.51	13.85	5.27	2.33
BUF	7-3	0.512	60.22	78.46	33.86	12.07	4.31	1.81
LV	6-4	0.517	2.49	51.57	21.15	7.48	2.80	1.19
CLE	7-3	0.456	0.79	56.96	20.06	5.96	1.90	0.70
CHI	5-5	0.457	10.90	31.66	11.89	4.40	1.64	0.51
PHI	3-6-1	0.432	35.34	35.36	12.28	4.22	1.44	0.42
WAS	3-7	0.440	23.72	23.78	8.44	2.95	1.03	0.30
SF	4-6	0.508	0.48	8.28	3.58	1.47	0.63	0.22
MIN	4-6	0.475	1.82	11.35	4.43	1.71	0.68	0.22
NYG	3-7	0.411	23.31	23.35	7.65	2.48	0.80	0.22
DAL	3-7	0.365	17.63	17.65	5.07	1.43	0.40	0.10
CAR	4-7	0.462	0.00	1.90	0.70	0.25	0.10	0.03
NE	4-6	0.438	1.10	2.95	0.98	0.27	0.09	0.03
DET	4-6	0.392	0.25	3.17	1.00	0.30	0.10	0.03
LAC	3-7	0.477	0.00	0.44	0.15	0.04	0.02	0.01
ATL	3-7	0.458	0.01	0.30	0.11	0.04	0.02	0.00
DEN	4-6	0.382	0.02	0.87	0.22	0.05	0.01	0.00
HOU	3-7	0.415	0.09	0.26	0.08	0.02	0.01	0.00
CIN	2-7-1	0.391	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	1-9	0.333	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-
NYJ	0-10	0.252	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans

2020-11-23

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

Pittsburgh and New Orleans both won to hold onto their spots on top of each conference, but more interesting today are the teams at the bottom.

None of my simulations had the New York Jets making the playoffs, but none of the official sources are listing eliminations yet. Perhaps that is because of the potential for adding an 8th team per conference this year. Assuming we play all games and only 14 teams make the playoffs, the Jets are out. I did my standard way of checking this by gradually building a favorable schedule for them, forcing a bunch of games to go their way, such as letting them finish 6-10, making all interconference games go to the NFC team, then having all 7+ win teams win the rest of their games, but it's pretty clear from the current standings and schedule. In each AFC division, the leader has over 6 wins, so will not be caught by the Jets. The AFC North and South both have 2 teams with 7+ wins, so at best the Jets could reach the third wildcard. But, Miami and Las Vegas, both currently 6-4, have a game against each other remaining, which will put at least one of them above the Jets. Therefore, 10 losses will not let you into the AFC playoffs this year.

Other eliminations include Cincinnati from the NFC North title since the best they can hope for is 8-7-1 against Pittsburgh's 10-6, and Jacksonville, who can only reach 7-9, while their 7-3 division rivals will play each other next week, with the winner (or tie-ers) out of reach.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	10-0	0.712	97.69	99.98	90.47	58.29	34.91	21.93
KC	9-1	0.673	97.48	99.88	71.95	42.90	22.15	12.95
NO	8-2	0.628	85.06	99.75	81.29	45.95	25.48	12.03
TB	7-3	0.622	14.93	93.21	62.07	33.66	18.17	8.47
LAR	6-3	0.603	38.47	88.37	53.39	28.12	14.50	6.48
GB	7-3	0.583	87.00	94.34	56.71	29.05	14.21	6.06
IND	7-3	0.628	61.38	83.58	47.39	22.72	10.78	5.78
BAL	6-4	0.641	1.52	73.08	39.61	18.94	9.56	5.27
MIA	6-4	0.622	38.68	69.08	37.55	17.39	8.19	4.34
SEA	7-3	0.549	38.71	92.98	52.31	24.17	10.93	4.30
ARI	6-4	0.587	22.07	74.10	39.82	19.97	9.94	4.28
TEN	7-3	0.536	38.53	82.86	36.51	13.86	5.27	2.33
BUF	7-3	0.512	60.21	78.44	33.86	12.07	4.31	1.81
LV	6-4	0.517	2.51	51.59	21.16	7.48	2.80	1.19
CLE	7-3	0.456	0.79	56.98	20.07	5.97	1.91	0.70
CHI	5-5	0.457	10.93	31.59	11.93	4.40	1.63	0.51
PHI	3-6-1	0.432	35.34	35.36	11.91	4.12	1.41	0.41
WAS	3-7	0.440	23.72	23.78	8.18	2.88	1.01	0.30
SF	4-6	0.508	0.75	8.80	3.80	1.55	0.66	0.23
MIN	4-6	0.475	1.81	11.22	4.40	1.69	0.67	0.22
NYG	3-7	0.411	23.31	23.35	7.41	2.42	0.78	0.21
DAL	3-7	0.365	17.63	17.66	4.91	1.40	0.39	0.09
CAR	4-7	0.462	0.00	2.20	0.82	0.30	0.11	0.04
NE	4-6	0.439	1.11	2.97	0.98	0.27	0.09	0.03
DET	4-6	0.392	0.25	3.07	0.98	0.30	0.09	0.02
LAC	3-7	0.477	0.00	0.44	0.15	0.04	0.02	0.01
DEN	4-6	0.382	0.02	0.87	0.23	0.05	0.01	0.00
ATL	3-7	0.458	0.01	0.22	0.08	0.03	0.01	0.00
HOU	3-7	0.415	0.09	0.26	0.08	0.02	0.01	0.00
CIN	2-7-1	0.391	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	1-9	0.333	-	0.00	0.00	-	-	-
NYJ	0-10	0.252	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans

2020-11-22

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

It took 12 weeks, but everyone's in who's getting in, as Utah began their season. 127 teams have played at least one game, and 3 have opted out (UConn, New Mexico State, and Old Dominion).

#1 BYU won again and is the only 9-0 team. #2 Coastal Carolina and #3 Cincinnati are both 8-0, and also not your typical top teams.

Missouri just barely won against South Carolina, and raised themselves up to #54. The local sports media figured it should have been a cakewalk, as apparently they took the minimum allowable roster with them to South Carolina (53 players if the reporter was correct), and were desperate to make sure the game happened. But in the end, a win is a win, so we'll take it.

For the bottom of the table, let's just copy-paste-update from last week; #127 Vanderbilt lost again to fall to 0-7 and holds onto last place.

1	BYU	9-0
2	Coastal Carolina	8-0
3	Cincinnati	8-0
4	Notre Dame	8-0
5	Miami	7-1
6	Louisiana	7-1
7	Marshall	7-0
8	Alabama	7-0
9	SMU	7-2
10	Clemson	7-1
11	Liberty	8-1
12	NC State	6-3
13	Army	7-2
14	North Carolina	6-2
15	Iowa State	6-2
16	UTSA	6-4
17	Oklahoma	6-2
18	Florida	6-1
19	Appalachian State	6-2
20	Oklahoma State	5-2
21	Georgia Southern	6-3
22	Tulsa	5-1
23	Texas	5-2
24	Georgia	5-2
25	Memphis	5-2
T-26	Northwestern	5-0
T-26	Florida Atlantic	5-1
28	Texas A&M	5-1
29	UCF	5-3
30	Pittsburgh	5-4
31	Boston College	5-4
32	Auburn	5-2
33	West Virginia	5-3
34	UAB	4-3
35	Tulane	5-5
36	Virginia Tech	4-5
37	Nevada	5-0
38	Louisiana Tech	4-3
39	Virginia	4-4
40	Wake Forest	4-3
41	Kansas State	4-4
42	Troy	4-4
43	Boise State	4-1
44	Georgia State	4-4
45	San Jose State	4-0
46	Ohio State	4-0
47	Indiana	4-1
48	Houston	3-3
49	Western Kentucky	4-6
50	TCU	3-4
51	Arkansas State	3-6
52	Western Michigan	3-0
53	Oregon	3-0
54	Missouri	3-3
55	USC	3-0
56	Buffalo	3-0
57	Texas Tech	3-5
58	Navy	3-4
59	Arkansas	3-5
60	Kent State	3-0
61	Louisville	3-6
62	Ole Miss	3-4
63	UTEP	3-4
64	San Diego State	3-2
65	Iowa	3-2
66	North Texas	3-3
67	Middle Tennessee	3-6
68	South Alabama	3-6
69	Fresno State	3-1
70	LSU	3-3
71	Kentucky	3-5
72	Wisconsin	2-1
73	Colorado	2-0
74	Washington	2-0
75	Charlotte	2-3
76	Florida State	2-6
77	Maryland	2-1
78	Purdue	2-2
79	Air Force	2-2
80	Central Michigan	2-1
81	Duke	2-6
82	Georgia Tech	2-5
83	Toledo	2-1
84	Tennessee	2-5
85	Ball State	2-1
86	Texas State	2-9
87	Mississippi State	2-5
88	Minnesota	2-3
89	Hawai'i	2-3
90	East Carolina	2-6
91	Miami (OH)	1-1
92	Michigan	2-3
93	Washington State	1-1
94	Illinois	2-3
95	South Carolina	2-6
96	Southern Mississippi	2-7
97	Colorado State	1-2
98	Ohio	1-1
99	Rice	1-2
100	Wyoming	1-2
101	UCLA	1-2
102	Baylor	1-5
103	Oregon State	1-2
104	Nebraska	1-3
105	Michigan State	1-3
106	Syracuse	1-8
107	UMass	0-3
T-108	Arizona State	0-1
T-108	Utah	0-1
110	Temple	1-6
111	Rutgers	1-4
112	Stanford	0-2
113	Arizona	0-2
114	South Florida	1-7
115	Bowling Green	0-3
116	Utah State	0-4
117	UNLV	0-4
118	Akron	0-3
119	Florida International	0-5
T-120	California	0-2
T-120	Northern Illinois	0-3
122	Kansas	0-7
123	Eastern Michigan	0-3
124	New Mexico	0-4
125	UL Monroe	0-8
126	Penn State	0-5
127	Vanderbilt	0-7

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU
Week 6 BYU
Week 7 BYU
Week 8 BYU
Week 9 BYU
Week 10 BYU
Week 11 BYU

2020-11-20

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

I had Arizona slightly favored for Thursday (ignoring homefield advantage... I should really implement that), but they lost by 7 to Seattle, and the NFC West flipped from 43-21 Arizona, to 39-22 Seattle.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	9-0	0.671	90.68	99.84	86.42	51.06	28.12	16.66
KC	8-1	0.668	88.83	99.39	72.14	41.77	22.49	13.23
NO	7-2	0.600	76.04	98.14	69.67	37.38	19.59	9.02
TB	7-3	0.623	23.70	89.97	59.58	33.04	18.21	8.82
GB	7-2	0.589	89.23	95.91	65.08	34.26	17.44	7.83
BAL	6-3	0.651	8.52	86.30	49.51	25.65	13.52	7.72
LAR	6-3	0.604	38.19	85.59	52.85	28.33	14.94	6.94
MIA	6-3	0.629	53.19	83.08	47.54	23.38	11.56	6.32
IND	6-3	0.626	66.05	79.20	43.23	21.23	10.44	5.67
SEA	7-3	0.549	39.21	91.89	53.51	25.16	11.65	4.77
ARI	6-4	0.588	21.81	69.71	37.99	19.45	9.89	4.43
BUF	7-3	0.513	45.02	77.22	31.80	11.76	4.41	1.89
LV	6-3	0.524	11.16	62.67	26.49	10.08	3.92	1.73
TEN	6-3	0.525	33.81	61.90	25.86	9.89	3.85	1.70
PHI	3-5-1	0.443	57.71	57.73	20.62	7.44	2.69	0.84
MIN	4-5	0.480	3.25	22.99	9.49	3.80	1.53	0.53
CLE	6-3	0.448	0.80	41.08	13.90	4.23	1.38	0.51
CHI	5-5	0.457	6.76	26.57	10.19	3.86	1.46	0.48
SF	4-6	0.508	0.79	7.71	3.34	1.41	0.61	0.23
NYG	3-7	0.411	19.87	19.92	6.50	2.15	0.71	0.20
WAS	2-7	0.419	12.98	13.01	4.35	1.47	0.50	0.15
DET	4-5	0.431	0.76	9.38	3.40	1.20	0.43	0.13
NE	4-5	0.453	1.79	8.33	2.81	0.86	0.29	0.11
DAL	2-7	0.361	9.44	9.46	2.67	0.76	0.22	0.05
ATL	3-6	0.486	0.26	1.20	0.48	0.20	0.08	0.03
CAR	3-7	0.427	0.00	0.82	0.28	0.10	0.03	0.01
LAC	2-7	0.465	0.00	0.32	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00
DEN	3-6	0.375	0.01	0.35	0.09	0.02	0.01	0.00
HOU	2-7	0.404	0.14	0.20	0.06	0.02	0.00	0.00
CIN	2-6-1	0.415	0.00	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
JAC	1-8	0.376	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	0-9	0.264	-	0.00	0.00	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans

2020-11-17

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 10, Final

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

Minnesota beat Chicago Monday night, but as each teams had (and still has) a strength below .500, my Super Bowl projection was unaffected. Green Bay got a 5 point boost in their division chances (84.5% to 89.2%), but their overall playoff chances went up less than 1 point, so New Orleans remains the NFC favorite.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	9-0	0.671	90.68	99.84	86.41	51.05	28.12	16.60
KC	8-1	0.668	88.84	99.39	72.14	41.77	22.49	13.19
NO	7-2	0.600	76.04	98.09	70.18	37.56	19.59	9.02
TB	7-3	0.623	23.70	89.79	59.50	32.86	18.04	8.74
GB	7-2	0.589	89.23	95.76	65.52	34.40	17.42	7.83
BAL	6-3	0.651	8.52	86.31	49.51	25.66	13.52	7.69
LAR	6-3	0.604	35.41	86.64	53.29	28.39	14.92	6.93
MIA	6-3	0.629	53.21	83.16	47.59	23.41	11.58	6.31
ARI	6-3	0.598	42.64	83.21	48.80	25.70	13.32	6.11
IND	6-3	0.626	66.05	79.20	43.23	21.23	10.44	5.65
SEA	6-3	0.537	21.26	80.46	42.62	19.32	8.69	3.47
BUF	7-3	0.513	45.02	77.19	31.79	11.75	4.41	1.88
LV	6-3	0.524	11.16	62.70	26.50	10.08	3.92	1.72
TEN	6-3	0.525	33.81	61.91	25.85	9.89	3.85	1.69
PHI	3-5-1	0.443	57.64	57.67	20.54	7.37	2.65	0.83
CLE	6-3	0.448	0.80	41.07	13.90	4.23	1.38	0.50
MIN	4-5	0.480	3.25	20.96	8.67	3.46	1.39	0.48
CHI	5-5	0.457	6.75	26.05	9.96	3.75	1.42	0.46
SF	4-6	0.508	0.68	7.74	3.33	1.40	0.61	0.22
NYG	3-7	0.411	19.84	19.89	6.47	2.13	0.70	0.20
WAS	2-7	0.419	13.10	13.14	4.38	1.47	0.50	0.15
DET	4-5	0.431	0.77	9.18	3.32	1.16	0.41	0.13
NE	4-5	0.453	1.77	8.23	2.78	0.85	0.28	0.11
DAL	2-7	0.361	9.41	9.42	2.65	0.75	0.22	0.05
ATL	3-6	0.486	0.26	1.20	0.48	0.20	0.08	0.03
CAR	3-7	0.427	0.00	0.80	0.27	0.09	0.03	0.01
LAC	2-7	0.465	0.00	0.32	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00
DEN	3-6	0.375	0.01	0.35	0.09	0.02	0.01	0.00
HOU	2-7	0.404	0.14	0.20	0.06	0.02	0.00	0.00
CIN	2-6-1	0.415	0.00	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
JAC	1-8	0.376	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	0-9	0.264	-	0.00	0.00	-	-	-

2020-11-16

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

Neither of the conference leaders lost, yet we have a whole new matchup after Sunday's games. Kansas City had a bye week, which is almost as good as a loss when the team behind you wins. Pittsburgh, at 9-0, is the AFC favorite for the first time this year. Green Bay and New Orleans both started 6-2 and won to rise to 7-2, but New Orleans managed to win by a few more points to move ahead. We're still talking about very small differences of course, 19.7% to 17.3%. Tampa also won and by an even larger margin, bringing their NFC chances up to almost 18%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	9-0	0.672	90.68	99.84	86.42	51.06	28.12	16.62
KC	8-1	0.668	88.84	99.39	72.14	41.77	22.49	13.20
NO	7-2	0.600	76.07	98.06	70.36	37.69	19.70	9.07
TB	7-3	0.623	23.68	89.06	59.05	32.67	17.96	8.70
GB	7-2	0.589	84.54	95.08	65.00	34.16	17.32	7.78
BAL	6-3	0.651	8.52	86.32	49.52	25.66	13.52	7.70
LAR	6-3	0.604	35.43	85.32	52.64	28.09	14.79	6.87
MIA	6-3	0.629	53.22	83.17	47.60	23.42	11.58	6.31
ARI	6-3	0.598	42.64	81.92	48.06	25.35	13.16	6.04
IND	6-3	0.626	66.06	79.21	43.23	21.23	10.44	5.66
SEA	6-3	0.537	21.25	77.38	41.15	18.71	8.43	3.36
BUF	7-3	0.513	45.01	77.19	31.78	11.75	4.41	1.88
LV	6-3	0.524	11.15	62.70	26.50	10.08	3.92	1.72
TEN	6-3	0.525	33.80	61.90	25.85	9.88	3.84	1.69
CHI	5-4	0.472	13.18	43.93	18.01	7.05	2.75	0.93
PHI	3-5-1	0.443	57.59	57.61	20.59	7.40	2.67	0.84
CLE	6-3	0.448	0.80	41.06	13.89	4.23	1.37	0.50
MIN	3-5	0.471	1.64	11.96	4.81	1.88	0.74	0.25
SF	4-6	0.508	0.68	7.11	3.07	1.30	0.56	0.21
NYG	3-7	0.411	19.82	19.86	6.49	2.14	0.71	0.20
WAS	2-7	0.419	13.10	13.13	4.39	1.48	0.50	0.15
DET	4-5	0.431	0.64	8.42	3.06	1.07	0.38	0.12
NE	4-5	0.453	1.77	8.22	2.77	0.85	0.28	0.11
DAL	2-7	0.361	9.49	9.50	2.69	0.77	0.22	0.05
ATL	3-6	0.486	0.25	1.02	0.41	0.17	0.07	0.02
CAR	3-7	0.427	0.00	0.64	0.22	0.07	0.03	0.01
LAC	2-7	0.465	0.00	0.32	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00
DEN	3-6	0.375	0.01	0.35	0.09	0.02	0.01	0.00
HOU	2-7	0.404	0.14	0.19	0.06	0.02	0.00	0.00
CIN	2-6-1	0.415	0.00	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
JAC	1-8	0.376	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	0-9	0.264	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-

2020-11-15

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 11

Arizona, Washington, and California joined the ranks of the active this week, leaving 4 teams who have yet to take the field.

PAC-12: Utah
Independents: UConn, New Mexico State
C-USA: Old Dominion

Utah was scheduled to play but got postponed this weekend, while UConn, New Mexico State, and Old Dominion have all previously announced they are out for the year, so really Utah is the only team left to start up.

BYU survived their bye week and stays #1, tied at 8-0 with #2 Notre Dame. #10 Liberty is also 8-0, but needs some strength of schedule boosts to rise up to the top. The playoff is going to be weird this year - not as weird as it would be if they took my rankings, but weird.

Missouri had the week off again, but still dropped 12 spots, falling to #69.

#126 Vanderbilt lost to fall to 0-6 and holds onto last place.

1	BYU	8-0
2	Notre Dame	8-0
3	Miami	7-1
4	Louisiana	7-1
5	Marshall	7-0
6	Coastal Carolina	7-0
7	Clemson	7-1
8	SMU	7-2
9	Cincinnati	7-0
10	Liberty	8-0
11	Alabama	6-0
12	North Carolina	6-2
13	Appalachian State	6-1
14	Oklahoma State	5-1
15	Georgia Southern	6-2
16	NC State	5-3
17	Florida	5-1
18	Texas	5-2
19	UTSA	5-4
20	Iowa State	5-2
T-21	Texas A&M	5-1
T-21	Army	6-2
23	UCF	5-2
24	Oklahoma	5-2
25	Boston College	5-4
26	West Virginia	5-3
27	UAB	4-3
28	Tulane	5-4
29	Georgia	4-2
30	Virginia Tech	4-4
31	Florida Atlantic	4-1
32	Tulsa	4-1
33	Louisiana Tech	4-3
34	Northwestern	4-0
35	Memphis	4-2
36	Wake Forest	4-3
37	Kansas State	4-3
38	Auburn	4-2
39	Troy	4-3
40	San Jose State	4-0
41	Pittsburgh	4-4
42	Indiana	4-0
43	Arkansas State	3-5
44	Virginia	3-4
45	Nevada	4-0
46	Houston	3-3
47	TCU	3-4
48	Arkansas	3-4
49	Boise State	3-1
50	Georgia State	3-4
51	Ohio State	3-0
52	Texas Tech	3-5
53	Navy	3-4
54	San Diego State	3-1
55	Ole Miss	3-4
56	UTEP	3-4
57	South Alabama	3-5
58	Western Kentucky	3-6
59	Fresno State	3-1
60	Kentucky	3-4
61	Buffalo	2-0
62	Colorado	2-0
63	Central Michigan	2-0
64	Oregon	2-0
65	Purdue	2-1
66	Western Michigan	2-0
67	Wisconsin	2-0
68	USC	2-0
69	Missouri	2-3
70	Charlotte	2-3
71	Kent State	2-0
72	Florida State	2-6
73	Duke	2-6
74	Tennessee	2-4
75	Maryland	2-1
76	Georgia Tech	2-5
77	Louisville	2-6
78	Iowa	2-2
79	Hawai'i	2-2
80	Mississippi State	2-4
81	North Texas	2-3
82	LSU	2-3
83	Air Force	1-2
84	South Carolina	2-5
85	Washington	1-0
86	Middle Tennessee	2-6
87	Miami (OH)	1-1
88	UCLA	1-1
89	Rice	1-1
90	Southern Mississippi	2-6
91	Ohio	1-1
92	Toledo	1-1
93	Washington State	1-1
94	Colorado State	1-2
95	Wyoming	1-2
96	Nebraska	1-2
97	Ball State	1-1
98	Syracuse	1-7
99	Temple	1-5
100	Baylor	1-5
101	Texas State	1-9
102	UMass	0-2
103	East Carolina	1-6
104	Rutgers	1-3
105	Michigan	1-3
106	Michigan State	1-3
T-107	Arizona State	0-1
T-107	Arizona	0-1
109	Illinois	1-3
T-110	Minnesota	1-3
T-110	California	0-1
112	Northern Illinois	0-2
113	Stanford	0-2
114	New Mexico	0-3
115	Akron	0-2
116	Bowling Green	0-2
117	Eastern Michigan	0-2
118	South Florida	1-7
119	UNLV	0-4
120	Florida International	0-4
121	Oregon State	0-2
122	Utah State	0-4
123	Kansas	0-7
124	Penn State	0-4
125	UL Monroe	0-8
126	Vanderbilt	0-6

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU
Week 6 BYU
Week 7 BYU
Week 8 BYU
Week 9 BYU
Week 10 BYU

2020-11-13

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 10, Thursday

Kansas City over Green Bay

We had another Thursday night division game, with Indianapolis beating Tennessee. Both teams are now 6-3, with Indianapolis about twice as likely to win the division, and the other two - Houston and Jacksonville - pretty unlikely to make a run at it.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	8-1	0.668	94.31	99.52	76.96	45.35	25.39	15.40
PIT	8-0	0.631	73.89	99.39	76.29	41.54	21.05	11.95
BAL	6-2	0.655	25.14	95.08	59.49	32.83	17.78	10.54
GB	6-2	0.580	79.15	92.93	62.79	33.39	17.38	7.87
NO	6-2	0.574	70.78	92.94	60.74	31.80	16.35	7.30
IND	6-3	0.626	66.90	83.02	45.63	23.03	11.69	6.57
ARI	5-3	0.596	32.61	76.54	46.92	25.54	13.76	6.45
TB	6-3	0.587	28.05	79.40	48.60	25.85	13.65	6.28
LAR	5-3	0.588	24.67	73.56	45.21	24.15	12.80	5.89
MIA	5-3	0.615	35.71	76.13	42.00	20.30	10.04	5.53
SEA	6-2	0.546	40.47	86.94	54.53	26.53	12.75	5.34
BUF	7-2	0.516	63.45	87.32	38.01	14.69	5.72	2.58
TEN	6-3	0.525	32.67	66.79	28.14	11.09	4.45	2.05
PHI	3-4-1	0.463	72.21	72.29	28.90	11.43	4.52	1.54
CHI	5-4	0.472	17.41	48.98	21.23	8.71	3.55	1.24
SF	4-5	0.536	2.26	20.33	10.06	4.76	2.27	0.93
LV	5-3	0.481	5.55	44.73	17.09	6.00	2.17	0.90
CLE	5-3	0.447	0.97	36.09	12.46	3.95	1.31	0.50
MIN	3-5	0.471	2.81	15.42	6.46	2.64	1.08	0.38
WAS	2-6	0.423	15.37	15.63	5.61	2.00	0.72	0.22
CAR	3-6	0.468	0.29	4.29	1.78	0.72	0.30	0.10
DET	3-5	0.426	0.62	6.11	2.29	0.84	0.31	0.10
NYG	2-7	0.391	6.91	6.93	2.29	0.75	0.25	0.07
ATL	3-6	0.486	0.88	2.15	0.91	0.39	0.17	0.06
NE	3-5	0.441	0.84	4.52	1.50	0.47	0.16	0.06
DAL	2-7	0.361	5.52	5.55	1.67	0.50	0.15	0.04
LAC	2-6	0.480	0.03	1.92	0.69	0.24	0.09	0.04
DEN	3-5	0.418	0.11	2.96	0.90	0.26	0.08	0.03
CIN	2-5-1	0.462	0.00	1.39	0.49	0.16	0.06	0.02
HOU	2-6	0.416	0.42	1.11	0.34	0.10	0.03	0.01
JAC	1-7	0.385	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	0-9	0.263	-	0.00	0.00	-	-	-