Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 13, Thursday

New England over San Francisco

We had 3 games on Thanksgiving, and New Orleans went and clinched a playoff spot before New England had a chance. That's because they have won their division, clinching no worse than a tie with Carolina, over whom they have the head to head tiebreaker. We've got the right teams eliminated now, too, Detroit, Atlanta, and Cincinnati, with Miami doing that thing where they make it in a few simulations but never hit the Superbowl.

San Francisco and New England could both clinch on Sunday, but they both need help, so they could both stretch to week 14, despite their dominance so far.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-1	0.804	98.3	100.0	99.5	73.7	46.1	29.8
SF	10-1	0.770	84.1	99.9	94.3	65.6	44.9	23.4
BAL	9-2	0.756	98.9	99.8	97.7	66.9	33.1	19.3
MIN	8-3	0.662	48.0	94.2	66.4	33.9	16.1	6.3
NO	10-2	0.600	++	++	83.3	40.5	15.4	5.1
BUF	9-3	0.663	1.7	97.4	59.7	21.6	9.1	4.3
DAL	6-6	0.644	74.9	75.2	40.6	18.7	8.8	3.3
SEA	9-2	0.553	15.9	96.5	51.1	18.2	7.0	2.0
KC	7-4	0.592	86.0	88.2	45.6	14.1	4.8	1.9
GB	8-3	0.533	51.5	91.3	47.3	17.9	6.0	1.7
HOU	7-4	0.532	51.0	68.2	32.6	8.3	2.4	0.8
TEN	6-5	0.561	22.0	37.7	19.3	5.3	1.7	0.6
IND	6-5	0.539	27.0	39.6	18.3	4.7	1.4	0.5
PIT	6-5	0.510	0.7	32.2	14.6	3.3	0.9	0.3
PHI	5-6	0.492	25.1	26.0	10.1	3.2	1.0	0.3
LAR	6-5	0.512	0.0	11.9	4.9	1.5	0.5	0.1
CLE	5-6	0.460	0.3	15.1	6.0	1.1	0.3	0.1
CHI	6-6	0.511	0.5	3.8	1.6	0.5	0.2	0.0
OAK	6-5	0.391	13.0	19.9	6.1	1.0	0.2	0.0
LAC	4-7	0.514	0.8	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	5-6	0.441	-	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
JAC	4-7	0.385	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
DEN	3-8	0.394	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
TB	4-7	0.464	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	4-7	0.371	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	3-7-1	0.380	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-9	0.335	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
WAS	2-9	0.249	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	3-8-1	0.435	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	3-9	0.383	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	0-11	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	2-9	0.222	-	0.0	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 12, Final

New England over San Francisco

Baltimore absolutely dominated the Rams on Monday night, nearly assuring themselves the AFC North (99%) and knocking the Rams out of the NFC West (<0.1%). Every team has played 11 games and had one bye now, so we've got 5 weeks of the full slate of 16 games. Of course there will be 3 this Thursday for Thanksgiving, with Dallas and Detroit hosting, as is tradition, and one more random divisional matchup, New Orleans at Atlanta in this case, which is a rematch from last Thanksgiving.

Also, Miami is not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, just very unlikely to make it. If I rerun the simulations with them winning the rest of their games, then do the typical things I do to try to force them into a spot, they eventually make it. Those include forcing all AFC-NFC games to go for the NFC to weaken the field, and then having all teams that have clinched records worse or better than them win the rest of their games, and then repeating that process if any new teams clinched worse records. For example, if Miami wins the rest to finish 7-9, Cincinnati can't possibly catch them, so I know I can safely let them win any game and they won't beat 5-11. Likewise, New England, Baltimore, and Buffalo can win any number of the rest of their games, too, because they already all have at least 8 wins. Anyway, once I do enough of that, I get Miami with a small chance of making the playoffs, so they aren't officially out yet.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-1	0.804	99.2	100.0	99.7	74.8	47.0	30.3
SF	10-1	0.770	84.1	99.9	94.1	65.1	44.6	23.2
BAL	9-2	0.756	99.0	99.8	97.7	67.9	33.7	19.6
MIN	8-3	0.662	48.1	94.9	68.4	35.5	16.8	6.6
DAL	6-5	0.660	81.9	82.7	46.2	22.4	11.0	4.3
NO	9-2	0.584	99.3	99.5	76.1	35.3	12.9	4.1
BUF	8-3	0.639	0.8	91.9	53.8	18.0	7.2	3.2
SEA	9-2	0.553	15.9	96.5	50.1	17.8	6.9	2.0
KC	7-4	0.592	86.1	88.4	47.6	14.7	5.0	2.0
GB	8-3	0.533	51.7	91.9	51.3	19.7	6.5	1.8
HOU	7-4	0.532	50.6	68.7	33.2	8.5	2.4	0.8
TEN	6-5	0.561	22.1	38.1	19.7	5.4	1.7	0.6
IND	6-5	0.539	27.2	40.4	19.1	4.9	1.5	0.5
PIT	6-5	0.510	0.7	34.2	15.5	3.5	1.0	0.3
PHI	5-6	0.492	18.1	19.2	7.5	2.4	0.8	0.2
LAR	6-5	0.512	0.0	11.7	4.8	1.4	0.5	0.1
CLE	5-6	0.460	0.3	16.1	6.4	1.2	0.3	0.1
OAK	6-5	0.391	12.9	20.3	6.5	1.0	0.2	0.0
CHI	5-6	0.500	0.3	2.0	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
LAC	4-7	0.514	0.8	1.3	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	5-6	0.441	0.7	1.7	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0
JAC	4-7	0.385	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
DEN	3-8	0.394	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
TB	4-7	0.464	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	4-7	0.371	-	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	3-7-1	0.443	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	3-7-1	0.380	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ATL	3-8	0.398	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-9	0.335	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
WAS	2-9	0.249	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CIN	0-11	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	2-9	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

It's almost silly how close New England is to clinching a playoff spot while not quite doing it yet. They are over 99.999% likely, or less than 1 in 100,000 not to make it. They're also over the 50% mark to make the Superbowl, so given a choice between New England or the rest of the AFC, I'll take New England now. In the NFC San Francisco had a dominant win and is getting close to New England, but they really ran up the score in the first part of the season to solidify a ridiculously high strength number.

We've got a whole lot of teams on the bring of clinching or elimination, so we should see plenty of those next week. I show Detroit, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay not winning their division this week. Some sources claim it's still mathematically possible for Tampa, but I don't see it. The only way it's possible is if Tampa wins out and New Orleans loses all of their games, so both teams finish 9-7. In a 2-team tie, New Orleans wins because they beat Tampa twice. So, Carolina would need to also finish 9-7. In our constructed Scenario, Carolina is 2-2 against the 2 other teams (1-1 against both), making New Orleans 3-1 and Tampa 1-3. And, there's no way for Atlanta to join the tie, having already lost 8 games.

Detroit is a trickier case. I've been lazily running my simulations without ties, and it'll definitely take one for Detroit to have any chance at the NFC North. If Detroit wins out, they will be 8-7-1. Green Bay and Minnesota both have 8 wins and a game against each other, so that game would have to end in a tie, and all 3 teams could be 8-7-1. That puts us in the same 3 team scenario as above, where the first tiebreaker is head to head, where Detroit would be 1-1 against each team, total 2-2, but Green Bay is 1-0-1 against Minnesota, and would win that tiebreaker. So what do we do? Throw Chicago into the mix? We've already forced them to be 7-7 so they'd have to win and tie against Dallas and Kansas City, but that would mean the first tiebreaker is just the conference record, which Chicago would now win at 4-2.

In short, my hypothesis is that Detroit and Tampa are out. Prove me wrong, please.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-1	0.804	99.1	100.0	99.7	74.7	50.5	32.6
SF	10-1	0.770	84.7	99.8	94.2	65.0	44.5	24.0
BAL	8-2	0.712	96.6	99.1	93.8	60.0	26.7	14.0
MIN	8-3	0.662	48.1	91.6	66.1	34.3	16.2	6.7
DAL	6-5	0.660	81.1	81.8	45.7	22.1	10.8	4.5
NO	9-2	0.584	99.3	99.4	75.7	35.1	12.8	4.3
BUF	8-3	0.639	0.9	92.3	53.9	19.4	8.2	3.7
KC	7-4	0.592	86.1	88.3	49.8	17.7	6.2	2.5
SEA	9-2	0.553	14.9	93.7	48.4	17.2	6.6	2.1
GB	8-3	0.533	51.7	88.1	49.8	19.2	6.3	1.9
HOU	7-4	0.532	50.6	68.1	33.7	9.9	2.9	1.0
TEN	6-5	0.561	22.1	37.8	19.8	6.0	2.0	0.7
LAR	6-4	0.592	0.3	22.8	11.3	4.2	1.9	0.6
IND	6-5	0.539	27.2	39.9	19.0	5.4	1.7	0.6
PIT	6-5	0.510	2.1	35.4	16.2	4.0	1.2	0.4
PHI	5-6	0.492	18.9	19.6	7.6	2.5	0.8	0.2
CLE	5-6	0.460	1.4	17.2	6.9	1.4	0.4	0.1
OAK	6-5	0.391	12.9	19.9	6.4	1.1	0.2	0.1
CHI	5-6	0.500	0.3	1.5	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
LAC	4-7	0.514	0.8	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	5-6	0.441	0.7	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
DEN	3-8	0.394	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAC	4-7	0.385	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	4-7	0.371	-	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
TB	4-7	0.464	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	3-7-1	0.443	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	3-7-1	0.380	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-9	0.335	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ATL	3-8	0.398	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
WAS	2-9	0.249	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CIN	0-11	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	2-9	0.222	-	0.0	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

Clemson remains #1 for the 4th week in a row despite their bye week, and Ohio State jumped over LSU to swap places at #2 and #3. Florida also had a bye, but fell out of the top 4. Georgia rose all the way up from #7 to take the final playoff position, passing Penn State (lost to Ohio State) and Oregon (lost to Arizona State).

We've still got 3 undefeated teams, and they're all 11-0 and ranked at the top.

Missouri took a lead, fell behind, took another lead, fell behind, tied it up, but ultimately lost to Tennessee, to fall to a disappointing 5-6 and #78. That bowl eligibility appeal is starting to look moot. Although, only 73 teams currently have 6 wins, so we could see a 5-win team in a bowl.

Akron did not mess with tradition, and lost their 11th game of the season to remain #130. It was one of their closest losses of the season though, just a 3 point game. They'll get one last chance next week against Ohio, as all the rivalries and attempted rivalries take place.

1	Clemson	11-0
2	Ohio State	11-0
3	LSU	11-0
4	Georgia	10-1
5	Boise State	10-1
6	Oklahoma	10-1
7	Utah	10-1
8	Baylor	10-1
9	Cincinnati	10-1
10	Memphis	10-1
11	Minnesota	10-1
12	Alabama	10-1
13	Florida	9-2
14	Notre Dame	9-2
15	Penn State	9-2
16	Appalachian State	10-1
17	Oregon	9-2
18	Michigan	9-2
19	Wisconsin	9-2
20	SMU	9-2
21	Air Force	9-2
22	Auburn	8-3
23	Navy	8-2
24	Louisiana	9-2
25	Iowa	8-3
26	USC	8-4
27	Wake Forest	8-3
28	Oklahoma State	8-3
29	UCF	8-3
30	Virginia	8-3
31	Hawai'i	8-4
32	Virginia Tech	8-3
33	San Diego State	8-3
34	Louisville	7-4
35	Florida Atlantic	8-3
36	Iowa State	7-4
37	Pittsburgh	7-4
38	Kansas State	7-4
39	Louisiana Tech	8-3
40	Arkansas State	7-4
41	BYU	7-4
42	Temple	7-4
43	Western Kentucky	7-4
44	Western Michigan	7-4
45	Texas A&M	7-4
46	Marshall	7-4
47	Miami (OH)	7-4
48	Nevada	7-4
49	Georgia State	7-4
50	UAB	8-3
51	Southern Mississippi	7-4
52	Utah State	6-5
53	Tennessee	6-5
54	Wyoming	7-4
55	Miami	6-5
56	Texas	6-5
57	Washington	6-5
58	Central Michigan	7-4
59	Florida State	6-5
60	Arizona State	6-5
61	Indiana	7-4
62	California	6-5
63	Georgia Southern	6-5
64	Kentucky	6-5
65	Buffalo	6-5
66	Tulane	6-5
67	Eastern Michigan	6-5
68	Illinois	6-5
69	Mississippi State	5-6
70	Washington State	6-5
71	Charlotte	6-5
72	Toledo	6-5
73	TCU	5-6
74	North Carolina	5-6
75	Florida International	6-5
76	Michigan State	5-6
77	Liberty	6-5
78	Missouri	5-6
79	Boston College	5-6
80	UL Monroe	5-6
81	Oregon State	5-6
82	Colorado	5-6
83	Kent State	5-6
84	Ohio	5-6
85	Nebraska	5-6
86	South Carolina	4-7
87	UCLA	4-7
88	South Florida	4-7
89	Troy	5-6
90	West Virginia	4-7
91	Duke	4-7
92	Army	5-6
93	Fresno State	4-7
94	Houston	4-7
95	Texas Tech	4-7
96	Ole Miss	4-7
97	Arizona	4-7
98	Syracuse	4-7
99	Purdue	4-7
100	Stanford	4-7
101	Coastal Carolina	4-7
102	Ball State	4-7
103	Tulsa	3-8
104	East Carolina	4-7
105	NC State	4-7
106	Northern Illinois	4-7
107	San Jose State	4-7
108	Middle Tennessee	4-7
109	Texas State	3-8
110	Colorado State	4-7
111	UTSA	4-7
112	North Texas	4-7
113	Georgia Tech	3-8
114	Kansas	3-8
115	Maryland	3-8
116	Bowling Green	3-8
117	Vanderbilt	3-8
118	UNLV	3-8
119	New Mexico	2-9
120	Arkansas	2-9
121	Rutgers	2-9
122	Rice	2-9
123	Northwestern	2-9
124	UConn	2-9
125	New Mexico State	2-9
126	South Alabama	1-10
127	Old Dominion	1-10
128	UTEP	1-10
129	UMass	1-11
130	Akron	0-11

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 12, Thursday

New England over San Francisco

Houston avenged their earlier loss to Indianapolis, and took control of the AFC South. They are now 57.8% likely to win the division, up from 32.4%. Avoiding that head to head sweep gets them past the first tiebreaker if they should wind up tied on top of the division.

Everything else is pretty much status quo, including the oddly specific and consistent fact that I show some non-zero chance of Washington making the NFC title game, but no chance of them making the Superbowl. I'm going to have to investigate and see if I have some weird bug in my code. When I did a test run with them winning all their remaining games 1000-0, they do wind up winning, but maybe there's some weird edge case.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-1	0.780	98.4	100.0	99.1	73.4	47.4	30.5
SF	9-1	0.733	82.2	99.0	90.7	58.5	37.1	19.2
BAL	8-2	0.712	98.1	99.5	95.0	62.8	30.1	16.8
MIN	8-3	0.662	35.5	91.4	63.2	33.7	17.0	7.5
DAL	6-4	0.658	78.0	79.7	44.4	22.5	11.4	4.9
GB	8-2	0.590	64.4	94.2	69.5	31.7	13.1	4.8
NO	8-2	0.581	94.5	95.8	65.6	29.0	11.7	4.2
KC	7-4	0.592	74.4	82.3	49.4	17.8	6.7	2.9
BUF	7-3	0.597	1.6	82.5	45.4	15.5	6.2	2.7
SEA	8-2	0.537	16.8	81.8	41.4	15.2	5.8	1.9
HOU	7-4	0.532	57.8	75.2	39.0	11.7	3.8	1.4
IND	6-5	0.539	28.8	43.3	21.5	6.3	2.1	0.8
LAR	6-4	0.593	0.9	22.4	11.2	4.7	2.1	0.8
PHI	5-5	0.508	22.0	27.5	11.1	3.9	1.4	0.4
PIT	5-5	0.495	1.3	31.4	14.1	3.6	1.1	0.4
OAK	6-4	0.451	24.8	47.3	19.7	4.6	1.2	0.4
TEN	5-5	0.514	12.6	22.3	10.7	2.9	0.9	0.3
CLE	4-6	0.422	0.6	10.7	4.0	0.8	0.2	0.1
CAR	5-5	0.445	5.4	7.2	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.1
JAC	4-6	0.426	0.9	3.4	1.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
LAC	4-7	0.514	0.5	1.2	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-6	0.486	0.1	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
DEN	3-7	0.438	0.2	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
DET	3-6-1	0.450	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
ATL	3-7	0.420	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
TB	3-7	0.444	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-7	0.320	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.349	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	3-7-1	0.380	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
MIA	2-8	0.242	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CIN	0-10	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	1-9	0.256	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco

August Card Show Autograph

I'm catching up, I promise. This one's from August 2018.

After a few years of religiously attending my local card show most months, I find that often there's only one signer at any given show that I haven't already seen, if there's any new ones at all. Such was the case last August with Ted Sizemore.

Ted Sizemore

I was surprised to see I've never posted a Ted Sizemore card on my blog. I haven't posted cards frequently for awhile here, but I hope to get back to that before long.

Anyway, Ted Sizemore was NL Rookie of the year with LA in 1969, but only spent 2 seasons there before joining the Cardinals. The 1970s weren't a great time for the Cardinals, so his 5 seasons in St. Louis didn't result in any playoff appearances. He played 5 more seasons after that, going back to LA, then finally making the playoffs with Philadelphia, but unfortunately losing the NLCS to LA both years.

Part of the reason I blog these autographs is to remember my experiences of meeting the players, but my lag has seen my memory of the show completely wiped. I'm going to have to do a better job of writing these up in a more timely manner.

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 11, Final

New England over San Francisco

Kansas City beat the LA Chargers by a touchdown, which didn't have too much of an effect on the rest of the AFC. New England's giant odds took just the slightest hit, from 47.8% to 47.4% likely to make the Superbowl, because Kansas City is now 2.5 games behind New England (2 wins and 3 losses) instead of the full 3 games the AFC West leader (Oakland) would have been behind if KC had lost. KC has a tenuous half game lead by winning percentage, but is projected to be about 3 times as likely as Oakland to win the division.

I still show the same eliminations as yesterday, which is good. Somewhat curiously, I still didn't hit one single simulation in which Washington's playoff run let to a title. At 1-9, it's very unlikely to happen, but it's not technically impossible yet.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-1	0.780	98.4	100.0	99.1	73.4	47.4	30.5
SF	9-1	0.733	82.2	99.0	90.7	58.5	37.1	19.2
BAL	8-2	0.712	98.1	99.5	94.9	62.6	30.1	16.8
MIN	8-3	0.662	35.5	91.4	63.2	33.7	17.0	7.5
DAL	6-4	0.658	78.0	79.7	44.4	22.5	11.4	4.9
GB	8-2	0.590	64.4	94.2	69.6	31.8	13.1	4.8
NO	8-2	0.581	94.5	95.8	65.5	28.9	11.7	4.2
KC	7-4	0.592	74.4	82.3	49.4	17.8	6.7	2.9
BUF	7-3	0.597	1.6	81.6	44.8	15.3	6.1	2.7
SEA	8-2	0.537	16.8	81.9	41.4	15.2	5.8	1.9
IND	6-4	0.545	56.2	65.6	34.3	10.7	3.6	1.4
HOU	6-4	0.525	32.4	55.4	27.5	7.9	2.6	0.9
LAR	6-4	0.593	0.9	22.4	11.2	4.7	2.1	0.8
PHI	5-5	0.508	22.0	27.5	11.1	3.9	1.4	0.4
PIT	5-5	0.495	1.3	31.4	14.0	3.6	1.1	0.4
OAK	6-4	0.451	24.8	46.2	19.4	4.6	1.2	0.4
TEN	5-5	0.514	10.4	22.0	10.5	2.8	0.9	0.3
CLE	4-6	0.422	0.6	10.5	3.9	0.8	0.2	0.1
CAR	5-5	0.445	5.4	7.2	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.1
JAC	4-6	0.426	1.0	3.4	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
LAC	4-7	0.514	0.5	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-6	0.486	0.1	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
DEN	3-7	0.438	0.2	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
DET	3-6-1	0.450	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
ATL	3-7	0.420	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
TB	3-7	0.444	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-7	0.320	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.349	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	3-7-1	0.379	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
MIA	2-8	0.242	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CIN	0-10	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	1-9	0.256	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 11, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

New England won again, but still hasn't quite clinched the playoffs. Out of the simulations I ran, they made it in 99.988% though, so they're a pretty safe bet. They're also back over the 30% mark to win it all, which as I mentioned earlier, no team did last year during the regular season. San Francisco is also 9-1, but doesn't quite have the point differential advantage of New England.

Down in the dregs, the dominoes are starting to fall. Arizona and Miami join Cincinnati in being eliminated from their respective divisions, and the New York Jets appear to as well, but I'll want to work through the potential tiebreakers to verify that. At 0-10, Cincinnati is also eliminated from the playoffs. I also never hit a situation where Washington won the title, though obviously it's possible since I had at least a few times when they made the playoffs, so that blank is not technically accurate.

Let's work through the Jets possibilities. If they just tie New England for the division at 9-7, they can't win because New England swept them head to head. So we'll need a 3rd team to interfere, namely Buffalo (Miami has already lost over 7 games). Buffalo would be 8-4 counting a future win against New England and loss to the Jets, so they'll have to win one of their other games, and it turns out it doesn't matter which one. The first tiebreaker is head to head among all 3 teams, and New York will be a combined 1-3, while Buffalo is 2-2, and New England is 3-1.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-1	0.780	98.4	100.0	99.3	73.9	47.8	30.7
SF	9-1	0.733	82.2	99.0	90.7	58.5	37.1	19.2
BAL	8-2	0.712	98.1	99.5	95.9	64.1	30.7	17.1
MIN	8-3	0.662	35.2	91.3	63.1	33.6	17.0	7.4
DAL	6-4	0.658	78.0	79.7	44.4	22.5	11.4	4.9
GB	8-2	0.590	64.7	94.1	69.6	31.8	13.1	4.8
NO	8-2	0.581	94.5	95.8	65.6	29.0	11.7	4.2
BUF	7-3	0.597	1.6	82.7	46.5	15.9	6.3	2.8
KC	6-4	0.579	59.7	66.7	37.9	12.9	4.8	2.0
SEA	8-2	0.537	16.8	81.9	41.4	15.2	5.8	1.9
IND	6-4	0.545	56.3	66.2	34.8	10.9	3.6	1.4
HOU	6-4	0.525	32.4	56.2	28.3	8.2	2.6	1.0
LAR	6-4	0.593	0.9	22.5	11.3	4.7	2.1	0.8
PHI	5-5	0.508	22.0	27.5	11.1	3.9	1.4	0.4
PIT	5-5	0.495	1.3	32.9	15.2	3.9	1.2	0.4
OAK	6-4	0.451	32.8	48.9	20.9	4.9	1.3	0.4
TEN	5-5	0.514	10.4	22.7	11.0	3.0	0.9	0.3
LAC	4-6	0.530	7.0	8.6	4.1	1.2	0.4	0.1
CLE	4-6	0.422	0.6	11.0	4.3	0.9	0.2	0.1
CAR	5-5	0.445	5.4	7.2	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.1
JAC	4-6	0.426	0.9	3.4	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	4-6	0.486	0.1	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
DEN	3-7	0.438	0.5	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
DET	3-6-1	0.450	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
ATL	3-7	0.420	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
TB	3-7	0.444	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-7	0.320	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.349	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	3-7-1	0.379	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
MIA	2-8	0.242	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CIN	0-10	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	1-9	0.255	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

Clemson, LSU, and Ohio State won to hold spots #1, #2, and #3 in my rankings, but Minnesota and Baylor both lost, plummeting to #8 and #14. Somehow Florida, with a win over a very disappointing Mizzou team, took over the #4 spot, even jumping over Oregon, who beat a slightly worse team in Arizona.

Minnesota and Baylor were the two undefeated teams that lost, taking us down to just 3.

Missouri lost to Florida, but they didn't budge from #68. Unrelated, but also not moving was Liberty at #69, still 6-4.

New Mexico State dipped down to the FCS to get a win, and Rice also won against #115 Middle Tennessee, leaving Akron as the only winless team, and #130

1	Clemson	11-0
2	LSU	10-0
3	Ohio State	10-0
4	Florida	9-2
5	Oregon	9-1
6	Penn State	9-1
7	Georgia	9-1
8	Minnesota	9-1
9	Utah	9-1
10	Boise State	9-1
11	Memphis	9-1
12	Oklahoma	9-1
13	Cincinnati	9-1
14	Baylor	9-1
15	Alabama	9-1
16	SMU	9-1
17	Appalachian State	9-1
18	Notre Dame	8-2
19	Michigan	8-2
20	Wisconsin	8-2
21	Air Force	8-2
22	San Diego State	8-2
23	Auburn	7-3
24	Louisiana	8-2
25	Navy	7-2
26	USC	7-4
27	Iowa	7-3
28	Louisiana Tech	8-2
29	Oklahoma State	7-3
30	Wake Forest	7-3
31	Pittsburgh	7-3
32	UCF	7-3
33	Virginia	7-3
34	Temple	7-3
35	Texas A&M	7-3
36	Hawai'i	7-4
37	Marshall	7-3
38	Western Michigan	7-4
39	Louisville	6-4
40	Virginia Tech	7-3
41	Southern Mississippi	7-3
42	Florida Atlantic	7-3
43	Iowa State	6-4
44	Washington	6-4
45	Utah State	6-4
46	BYU	6-4
47	Miami	6-4
48	Texas	6-4
49	Florida State	6-5
50	Central Michigan	7-4
51	Kansas State	6-4
52	Indiana	7-3
53	Miami (OH)	6-4
54	Nevada	6-4
55	Arkansas State	6-4
56	Georgia State	6-4
57	Georgia Southern	6-4
58	Western Kentucky	6-4
59	Tulane	6-4
60	Wyoming	6-4
61	UAB	7-3
62	Tennessee	5-5
63	Illinois	6-4
64	Toledo	6-4
65	California	5-5
66	TCU	5-5
67	Arizona State	5-5
68	Missouri	5-5
69	Liberty	6-4
70	Oregon State	5-5
71	Boston College	5-5
72	Kentucky	5-5
73	Buffalo	5-5
74	Eastern Michigan	5-5
75	Mississippi State	4-6
76	Washington State	5-5
77	North Carolina	4-6
78	Michigan State	4-6
79	Troy	5-5
80	West Virginia	4-6
81	Charlotte	5-5
82	UCLA	4-6
83	South Carolina	4-7
84	South Florida	4-6
85	Fresno State	4-6
86	UL Monroe	4-6
87	Duke	4-6
88	Florida International	5-5
89	Army	5-6
90	Syracuse	4-6
91	Texas Tech	4-6
92	Arizona	4-6
93	Stanford	4-6
94	Ole Miss	4-7
95	Colorado	4-6
96	Kent State	4-6
97	Purdue	4-6
98	Ohio	4-6
99	NC State	4-6
100	Nebraska	4-6
101	Coastal Carolina	4-6
102	San Jose State	4-6
103	Ball State	4-6
104	Tulsa	3-7
105	Northern Illinois	4-6
106	North Texas	4-6
107	Houston	3-7
108	Colorado State	4-6
109	UTSA	4-6
110	Maryland	3-7
111	Texas State	3-7
112	Kansas	3-7
113	Bowling Green	3-7
114	East Carolina	3-7
115	Middle Tennessee	3-7
116	Georgia Tech	2-8
117	Rutgers	2-8
118	New Mexico	2-8
119	Vanderbilt	2-8
120	Arkansas	2-8
121	UConn	2-8
122	UNLV	2-8
123	Northwestern	2-8
124	Rice	1-9
125	South Alabama	1-9
126	Old Dominion	1-9
127	New Mexico State	1-9
128	UTEP	1-9
129	UMass	1-10
130	Akron	0-10

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 11, Thursday

New England over San Francisco

Cleveland beat Pittsburgh, and earned the longest suspension for in-game antics in history, so it was kind of an up and down day for them. That knocked Pittsburgh out of playoff position, although I still give them a 37% chance of clawing their way back in. The biggest winner was Baltimore, who is now 95.1% likely to win the AFC North, up from 88.5%, while Pittsburgh fell from 11% to 3.3%. New England also crossed the 99.95% mark due to a weakened field, which rounds to 100.0 in my table here. I'll continue to report when they add more nines to their actual number, and that 100.0 will become a "+" if or when they actually clinch.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-1	0.755	97.6	100.0	98.4	70.6	46.4	29.0
SF	8-1	0.719	79.7	98.5	90.2	58.1	36.7	19.9
BAL	7-2	0.668	95.1	97.7	87.7	53.3	25.0	13.1
MIN	7-3	0.655	29.8	86.7	60.5	32.6	16.8	7.9
GB	8-2	0.590	69.5	94.4	74.7	35.9	15.4	6.2
DAL	5-4	0.647	66.3	68.5	38.3	19.6	10.0	4.6
HOU	6-3	0.589	60.1	78.8	53.4	22.6	9.0	4.0
NO	7-2	0.547	75.6	82.9	52.4	21.8	8.5	3.1
KC	6-4	0.579	64.4	70.7	42.0	16.5	6.6	2.8
SEA	8-2	0.537	19.5	79.0	43.7	16.7	6.7	2.4
BUF	6-3	0.561	2.4	75.7	39.3	13.8	5.5	2.3
PHI	5-4	0.521	33.7	39.5	17.5	6.7	2.6	0.9
IND	5-4	0.502	26.0	38.8	18.6	5.9	1.9	0.7
PIT	5-5	0.495	3.3	37.0	16.7	5.0	1.7	0.6
LAR	5-4	0.569	0.8	15.2	7.7	3.2	1.4	0.5
CAR	5-4	0.494	23.4	28.6	12.1	4.3	1.5	0.5
TEN	5-5	0.514	9.9	21.2	10.3	3.3	1.1	0.4
OAK	5-4	0.441	26.6	40.3	17.0	4.5	1.3	0.4
LAC	4-6	0.530	7.8	9.6	4.7	1.5	0.6	0.2
JAC	4-5	0.470	4.1	15.6	6.5	1.8	0.6	0.2
CHI	4-5	0.513	0.7	4.5	2.1	0.8	0.3	0.1
CLE	4-6	0.422	1.6	12.0	4.5	1.1	0.3	0.1
DEN	3-6	0.445	1.3	2.5	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
TB	3-6	0.471	0.9	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
DET	3-5-1	0.463	0.1	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	2-7	0.380	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	3-6-1	0.394	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.349	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	2-7	0.298	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
MIA	2-7	0.265	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
WAS	1-8	0.280	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CIN	0-9	0.292	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco

July Card Show Autograph

Once again, I'm way behind here...this was July 2018.

Aaron Miles

In my mind it feels like Miles mostly played for Colorado, but the stats say otherwise. He had his real career start there, after a couple of games with the White Sox, but played just 2 seasons. Then he had 3 with the Cardinals, playing 130+ games each season 2006-2008, including the World Series winning year of 2006. He then left for the Cubs, but after 1 year there was traded in the offseason to Oakland, then Cincinnati, then released, before returning to the Cardinals for a season, getting released again, and playing another 130 games in his final season with the Dodgers.

Miles is also memorable as our blowout mop-up pitcher several times, taking the mound 5 times for a total of 5 innings, and only allowing 2 runs, for a respectable 3.60 ERA.

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 10, Final

New England over San Francisco

San Francisco lost, and we have no more undefeated teams in the NFL this year. It was a divisional game too, so it gave their divisional chances quite a blow, down to 79.7% from 91.6%. Before Monday, I had San Francisco with a 4.5% chance of going undefeated. Now they are 7.1% likely to go 15-1, while New England is 12.2% likely to win the rest of their games to go 15-1. Just for fun, Cincinnati is 3.8% likely to go 0-16.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-1	0.755	97.7	99.9	98.3	70.0	46.2	28.9
SF	8-1	0.719	79.7	98.5	90.2	58.1	36.7	19.9
BAL	7-2	0.668	88.5	97.0	85.9	51.7	24.4	12.8
MIN	7-3	0.655	29.8	86.7	60.5	32.7	16.8	7.9
GB	8-2	0.590	69.5	94.5	74.7	35.9	15.4	6.2
DAL	5-4	0.647	66.3	68.5	38.3	19.6	10.0	4.7
HOU	6-3	0.589	60.1	76.7	51.2	21.8	8.7	3.9
NO	7-2	0.547	75.6	82.9	52.4	21.8	8.5	3.1
KC	6-4	0.579	64.4	69.7	40.4	16.0	6.4	2.7
SEA	8-2	0.537	19.5	79.0	43.7	16.7	6.7	2.4
BUF	6-3	0.561	2.3	72.8	37.8	13.3	5.3	2.2
PIT	5-4	0.527	11.0	61.6	32.2	11.1	3.9	1.5
PHI	5-4	0.521	33.7	39.5	17.5	6.7	2.6	0.9
IND	5-4	0.502	26.0	36.3	17.1	5.5	1.8	0.6
LAR	5-4	0.569	0.8	15.1	7.7	3.2	1.4	0.5
CAR	5-4	0.494	23.4	28.6	12.1	4.3	1.5	0.5
OAK	5-4	0.441	26.5	38.4	15.9	4.3	1.2	0.4
TEN	5-5	0.514	9.9	18.1	8.7	2.8	1.0	0.4
LAC	4-6	0.530	7.8	9.1	4.3	1.4	0.5	0.2
JAC	4-5	0.470	4.1	14.0	5.8	1.6	0.5	0.2
CHI	4-5	0.513	0.7	4.5	2.1	0.8	0.3	0.1
CLE	3-6	0.397	0.5	4.2	1.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
DEN	3-6	0.445	1.3	2.2	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.0
TB	3-6	0.470	0.9	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
DET	3-5-1	0.463	0.1	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	2-7	0.380	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	3-6-1	0.394	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.349	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	2-7	0.298	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
MIA	2-7	0.265	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
WAS	1-8	0.280	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CIN	0-9	0.292	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco