Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 13, Thursday

San Francisco over Houston

Toward the end of the season, there's not much movement from a single game, especially if it's intradivision or intraconference. Last night's NFC South matchup solidified Atlanta's lead and eliminated New Orleans from the division. Tampa Bay is still in it, but would have to win via tiebreaker.

Kansas City remains the only team eliminated from the playoffs entirely. And don't worry, Chicago, the Rams will take down San Francisco this week to put you back atop the NFC. After all, if we can tie them in San Francisco, we can beat them at home, right?

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	8-2-1	0.740	98.054	99.705	88.257	52.983	31.901	18.317
NE	8-3	0.722	98.630	99.676	80.249	47.049	26.865	14.529
CHI	8-3	0.705	76.389	97.411	74.173	38.245	20.951	11.131
HOU	10-1	0.698	98.673	100.000	98.220	58.990	31.346	16.060
DEN	8-3	0.671	99.993	99.995	77.539	38.985	19.309	9.292
ATL	11-1	0.670	99.790	99.999	97.224	53.654	24.787	12.158
NYG	7-4	0.645	84.200	91.311	53.871	23.754	10.747	4.981
BAL	9-2	0.626	95.829	99.885	79.055	34.564	15.299	6.627
TB	6-5	0.600	0.210	38.301	16.469	6.654	2.695	1.123
SEA	6-5	0.585	1.916	49.439	21.298	8.349	3.252	1.309
CIN	6-5	0.567	2.054	49.380	19.350	7.107	2.821	1.059
GB	7-4	0.555	21.022	72.349	30.928	10.881	3.961	1.481
PIT	6-5	0.549	2.117	47.675	17.837	6.242	2.368	0.847
WAS	5-6	0.518	10.238	19.916	7.490	2.434	0.794	0.269
SD	4-7	0.517	0.007	12.813	4.324	1.391	0.491	0.162
MIN	6-5	0.498	2.590	17.194	5.770	1.777	0.555	0.179
NO	5-7	0.490	-	3.176	0.993	0.306	0.093	0.029
DET	4-7	0.476	-	0.493	0.153	0.044	0.013	0.004
MIA	5-6	0.465	1.364	6.156	1.931	0.549	0.168	0.048
DAL	5-6	0.459	5.534	9.394	3.069	0.847	0.235	0.068
CLE	3-8	0.414	-	0.374	0.091	0.022	0.006	0.001
IND	7-4	0.413	1.327	77.337	19.996	4.820	1.265	0.310
CAR	3-8	0.393	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
STL	4-6-1	0.393	0.029	1.141	0.265	0.062	0.014	0.003
ARI	4-7	0.385	0.001	0.136	0.032	0.007	0.002	0.000
NYJ	4-7	0.367	0.003	3.612	0.780	0.159	0.036	0.008
BUF	4-7	0.367	0.003	1.315	0.284	0.058	0.013	0.003
TEN	4-7	0.338	-	1.706	0.333	0.062	0.013	0.002
PHI	3-8	0.306	0.028	0.031	0.007	0.001	0.000	0.000
OAK	3-8	0.285	-	0.073	0.011	0.002	0.000	0.000
JAC	2-9	0.284	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
KC	1-10	0.247	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 12, Final

San Francisco over Houston

Nothing much changes on a night when a 2-7 team takes on a 3-7 team, and the result is 2 3-8 teams. Philadelphia isn't quite eliminated from the NFC East, but their chances are getting ever-slimmer.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	8-2-1	0.740	98.055	99.693	88.857	54.156	33.034	18.967
NE	8-3	0.722	98.631	99.676	80.249	47.050	26.868	14.644
CHI	8-3	0.705	76.389	97.267	75.465	40.211	22.116	11.751
HOU	10-1	0.698	98.675	100.000	98.221	58.998	31.349	16.197
DEN	8-3	0.671	99.993	99.995	77.544	38.983	19.306	9.377
ATL	10-1	0.649	98.915	99.924	93.552	48.626	21.477	10.036
NYG	7-4	0.645	84.398	91.155	54.688	24.696	11.282	5.227
BAL	9-2	0.626	95.830	99.885	79.055	34.564	15.298	6.694
TB	6-5	0.600	1.051	37.460	16.319	6.691	2.747	1.145
SEA	6-5	0.585	1.914	47.208	20.470	8.206	3.240	1.304
CIN	6-5	0.567	2.054	49.383	19.352	7.107	2.821	1.071
GB	7-4	0.555	21.024	71.893	31.282	11.283	4.155	1.553
PIT	6-5	0.549	2.116	47.676	17.835	6.240	2.366	0.857
WAS	5-6	0.518	10.189	19.523	7.410	2.464	0.815	0.277
SD	4-7	0.517	0.007	12.817	4.325	1.391	0.490	0.164
NO	5-6	0.507	0.034	8.685	2.961	0.948	0.310	0.102
MIN	6-5	0.498	2.587	16.454	5.581	1.761	0.558	0.180
DET	4-7	0.476	-	0.470	0.147	0.043	0.013	0.004
MIA	5-6	0.465	1.363	6.151	1.930	0.549	0.168	0.049
DAL	5-6	0.459	5.384	9.078	2.989	0.846	0.238	0.069
CLE	3-8	0.414	-	0.374	0.091	0.021	0.006	0.001
IND	7-4	0.413	1.325	77.337	19.990	4.816	1.265	0.315
CAR	3-8	0.393	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
STL	4-6-1	0.393	0.029	1.040	0.244	0.059	0.014	0.003
ARI	4-7	0.385	0.001	0.118	0.028	0.007	0.002	0.000
NYJ	4-7	0.367	0.003	3.611	0.780	0.158	0.037	0.008
BUF	4-7	0.367	0.003	1.314	0.284	0.058	0.013	0.003
TEN	4-7	0.338	-	1.705	0.332	0.061	0.013	0.002
PHI	3-8	0.306	0.028	0.030	0.007	0.001	0.000	0.000
OAK	3-8	0.285	-	0.073	0.011	0.002	0.000	0.000
JAC	2-9	0.284	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
KC	1-10	0.247	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 12, Sunday

San Francisco over Houston

Houston fell down another spot, but is still the most likely AFC Champ. They may be coasting a bit now, knowing a first round bye is easily in reach.

There are two more division eliminations this week. First up is Tennessee. Obviously with 7 losses they can't catch the 10-win Texans. Oakland is also eliminated. The best they can do is to tie Denver, leaving them 1-1 against Denver, 4-2 in the division, the same as Denver, but with a worse common game percentage.

Kansas City is the first team mathematically eliminated from the playoffs altogether. It would be hard to enumerate all the scenarios to prove it, but I did run a number of simulations with KC going 6-10, and in every one they failed to win a wildcard spot.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	8-2-1	0.740	98.053	99.695	88.848	54.132	33.029	18.966
NE	8-3	0.722	98.630	99.678	80.253	47.055	26.871	14.645
CHI	8-3	0.705	76.389	97.271	75.442	40.175	22.107	11.746
HOU	10-1	0.698	98.674	100.000	98.222	58.997	31.352	16.197
DEN	8-3	0.671	99.993	99.995	77.542	38.982	19.304	9.377
ATL	10-1	0.649	98.964	99.929	93.688	48.734	21.515	10.055
NYG	7-4	0.645	84.324	91.034	54.565	24.640	11.257	5.216
BAL	9-2	0.626	95.862	99.887	79.060	34.564	15.296	6.694
TB	6-5	0.600	1.003	37.197	16.201	6.648	2.730	1.138
SEA	6-5	0.585	1.916	47.216	20.479	8.214	3.243	1.305
CIN	6-5	0.567	2.028	49.114	19.247	7.068	2.806	1.065
GB	7-4	0.555	21.023	71.952	31.313	11.295	4.160	1.555
PIT	6-5	0.549	2.110	47.725	17.851	6.247	2.367	0.858
WAS	5-6	0.518	10.165	19.410	7.373	2.454	0.812	0.276
SD	4-7	0.517	0.007	13.085	4.418	1.422	0.502	0.168
NO	5-6	0.507	0.033	8.949	3.051	0.978	0.320	0.106
MIN	6-5	0.498	2.588	16.509	5.602	1.770	0.561	0.181
DET	4-7	0.476	-	0.479	0.150	0.044	0.013	0.004
MIA	5-6	0.465	1.363	6.147	1.929	0.549	0.168	0.049
DAL	5-6	0.459	5.367	9.015	2.971	0.842	0.237	0.069
CLE	3-8	0.414	-	0.378	0.092	0.022	0.006	0.001
IND	7-4	0.413	1.326	77.279	19.976	4.814	1.265	0.314
STL	4-6-1	0.393	0.029	1.048	0.246	0.060	0.014	0.003
ARI	4-7	0.385	0.001	0.120	0.029	0.007	0.002	0.000
CAR	2-8	0.377	-	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	4-7	0.367	0.003	3.620	0.782	0.159	0.037	0.008
BUF	4-7	0.367	0.003	1.311	0.283	0.058	0.013	0.003
TEN	4-7	0.338	-	1.704	0.332	0.062	0.013	0.002
PHI	3-7	0.319	0.144	0.176	0.041	0.007	0.001	0.000
OAK	3-8	0.285	-	0.076	0.012	0.002	0.000	0.000
JAC	2-9	0.284	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
KC	1-10	0.247	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)

First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

The regular season is over in the large conferences, to be followed by conference championships and then bowl season. Notre Dame, devoid of a conference, is finished, and should be solid at #1 because none of Ohio State, Florida, or Oregon will be playing in their respective conference title games, nor would Ohio State be allowed in the big game anyway. Alabama and Georgia are probably playing a Semifinal in the SEC Championship, but my ranks may not put the winner at #2 (or #3 given the Ohio State situation).

Who's the worst bowl eligible team? That would be #80 Air Force.

Who's the best ineligible? Well, Ohio State of course, but based purely on record, it's #72, my very own Missouri Tigers, with a strong SEC schedule but a 5-7 record.

Finally, I think Southern Miss should play the Division 1-AA (FCS) Champion for the right to be in the FBS next year.

1	Notre Dame	12-0
2	Ohio State	12-0
3	Florida	11-1
4	Oregon	11-1
5	Georgia	11-1
6	Alabama	11-1
7	Texas A&M	10-2
8	Stanford	10-2
9	South Carolina	10-2
10	LSU	10-2
11	Kansas State	10-1
12	Kent State	11-1
13	Nebraska	10-2
14	Clemson	10-2
15	Northern Illinois	11-1
16	San Jose State	10-2
17	Florida State	10-2
18	Oklahoma	9-2
19	Utah State	10-2
20	UCLA	9-3
21	Toledo	9-3
22	Ball State	9-3
23	Northwestern	9-3
24	Rutgers	9-2
25	Oregon State	8-3
26	San Diego State	9-3
27	Louisville	9-2
28	Fresno State	9-3
29	Cincinnati	8-3
30	Michigan	8-4
31	Boise State	9-2
32	Texas	8-3
33	Louisiana Tech	9-3
34	Penn State	8-4
35	Tulsa	9-3
36	UCF	9-3
37	Mississippi State	8-4
38	Vanderbilt	8-4
39	Arkansas State	8-3
40	Arizona	7-5
41	North Carolina	8-4
42	Middle Tennessee	8-3
43	Syracuse	7-5
44	Oklahoma State	7-4
45	Miami (FL)	7-5
46	USC	7-5
47	East Carolina	8-4
48	Wisconsin	7-5
49	Washington	7-5
50	Louisiana-Monroe	8-4
51	TCU	7-4
52	Texas Tech	7-5
53	Bowling Green	8-4
54	Ohio	8-4
55	Arizona State	7-5
56	Navy	7-4
57	Baylor	6-5
58	West Virginia	6-5
59	North Carolina State	7-5
60	Louisiana-Lafayette	7-4
61	Michigan State	6-6
62	Brigham Young	7-5
63	Ole Miss	6-6
64	Iowa State	6-6
65	Western Kentucky	7-5
66	Duke	6-6
67	Virginia Tech	6-6
68	Purdue	6-6
69	Nevada	7-4
70	Minnesota	6-6
71	Georgia Tech	6-6
72	Missouri	5-7
73	Pittsburgh	5-6
74	Southern Methodist	6-6
75	Central Michigan	6-6
76	Utah	5-7
77	Tennessee	5-7
78	Rice	6-6
79	Wake Forest	5-7
80	Air Force	6-6
81	Arkansas	4-8
82	Connecticut	5-6
83	Iowa	4-8
84	Troy	5-7
85	Virginia	4-8
86	Houston	5-7
87	Marshall	5-7
88	Temple	4-7
89	Indiana	4-8
90	Miami (OH)	4-8
91	Buffalo	4-8
92	Wyoming	4-8
93	South Florida	3-8
94	Auburn	3-9
95	North Texas	4-8
96	California	3-9
97	Colorado State	4-8
98	Maryland	4-8
99	Western Michigan	4-8
100	Memphis	4-8
101	Washington State	3-9
102	Florida Atlantic	3-8
103	Kentucky	2-10
104	New Mexico	4-9
105	Florida International	3-9
106	UAB	3-9
107	UTEP	3-9
108	Eastern Michigan	2-10
109	Illinois	2-10
110	Army	2-9
111	Boston College	2-10
112	Kansas	1-10
113	Hawaii	2-9
114	Tulane	2-10
115	Colorado	1-11
116	UNLV	2-11
117	Idaho	1-11
118	New Mexico State	1-10
119	Akron	1-11
120	Southern Miss	0-12

2012 History

[Week 1]

[Week 2]
[Week 3]
[Week 4]
[Week 5]
[Week 6]
[Week 7]
[Week 8]
[Week 9]
[Week 10]
[Week 11]
[Week 12]

2012 Gypsy Queen Extreme Value Blaster

I recently picked up a blaster of Gypsy Queen at Target for $11.99. Normally these are $19.99, a little more than I can convince myself to pay for the 48 cards inside. But, for a quarter a card, I went for it. I've decided this set isn't old enough for a pack-by-pack breakdown, so here are the inserts and Cardinals.

2012 Gypsy Queen
#201 Allen Craig
#208 Adron Chambers

 Each pack has 1 mini card, and here's how those broke down.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Mini Parallel
#21 Mat Latos
#158 Rickie Weeks
#177 Nick Markakis
#183 Heath Bell

These are stated at 1:1, but they can be replaced by rarer mini parallels.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Mini Straight Cut Back
#69 Troy Tulowitzki
#115 Kurt Suzuki

I really should have scanned the backs since that's the only difference, but these Straight Cut Backs are inserted 1:6 packs.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Mini Gypsy Queen Back
#261 John Smoltz

Again, I really should have scanned the back. This Gypsy Queen back is also inserted 1:6 packs. And I'm still referring to him as Former Cardinal John Smoltz.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Mini Black Border
#305 Matt Cain

Since the black minis are inserted 1:12 packs, and this has a high number, I figured I had something rare with this one, but apparently the minis 301-350 are not short-printed this year. Still, a cool card of a guy who just won a World Series, and really did a number on my Cardinals in the process.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Future Stars
#FS-JH Jeremy Hellickson
#FS-JU Justin Upton

Future Stars is an interesting name for a set featuring a 2-time All-Star. It's much better than the Bowman gamble on guys that may be no-names in a few years.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Hallmark Heroes
#HH-MM Mickey Mantle
#HH-SM Stan Musial

That's a pretty good pair, Mantle and Musial, especially for a Cardinal fan such as myself.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Sliding Stars
#SS-DG Dee Gordon
#SS-JW Jemile Weeks

Feet first, guys. You'll eat much less dirt that way.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Moonshots
#MS-AP Albert Pujols

Oh, Albert. That Angels uniform still doesn't look right on you.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Glove Stories
#GS-DJ Derek Jeter

This card features the ridiculous play Jeter made against the A's, in which he flipped the ball and it seemed to make a left turn mid-air to get Jeremy Giambi at the plate.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Blue Framed Parallel
#80 Ryan Braun #015/599

Finally, a nice parallel carried over from last year, the framed parallel. Last year was green, and this year's is Blue, and numbered to 599. But mostly I like how cool it looks and feels. I'd like to pick up a few Cardinals from this subset, so if you have any and would like this Braun, drop me an e-mail.

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 12, Thursday

San Francisco over Houston

New England pushed closer to the top in team strength last night by clobbering the Jets, but Houston is a full 2 games ahead and very likely to get a first round bye, giving them a statistical edge in making the Superbowl. Note that the 100.000 shown as Houston's playoff odds is rounded up from 99.9995 or more. A clinched position will show with a plus sign (+).

Detroit played yesterday, and it seems wrong that they can be eliminated from winning their division at 4-7, with their division rivals at 7-3, 7-3, and 6-4. Surely they could still go 9-7 and win, right? As it turns out, the NFC North has a lot of intra-divison games left. Chicago and Green Bay each have 2 games against Minnesota, 1 game against Detroit, and 1 game against each other left to play. All that adds up to at least one of those teams finishing 9-7, and beating Detroit in a Tiebreaker.

It all sounds nicely wrapped up, except for the possibility of a tie. As you can see below, we've already had one this year. My software doesn't simulate ties, it always picks a winner in simulations. Actually, if at least one NFC North game ends in a tie, Detroit could win the division. My favorite example would be the Green Bay-Minnesota game in Week 17. If the other NFC Wildcards are 10-win teams, a situation could arise where the winner of that game wins the NFC North, and the loser goes home, but in case of a tie, Detroit wins and both teams go home. It's an extreme long shot, but it'd be interesting to see the strategy employed in overtime if it got down to 5 minutes or so left to play. That might even become the last tie ever in the NFL, as the ensuing outrage would mean something would be done.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	7-2-1	0.725	89.596	97.286	84.178	52.126	31.740	17.736
NE	8-3	0.722	99.361	99.824	82.573	49.894	28.739	16.392
HOU	10-1	0.699	99.235	100.000	98.684	60.634	32.518	17.630
CHI	7-3	0.672	45.409	83.772	59.918	31.135	16.267	8.084
DEN	7-3	0.651	99.751	99.891	74.229	35.376	16.845	8.233
ATL	9-1	0.646	91.882	98.441	89.723	47.218	22.355	10.461
BAL	8-2	0.616	87.432	98.979	75.339	32.259	14.113	6.376
GB	7-3	0.608	45.305	79.389	49.670	21.805	9.721	4.169
TB	6-4	0.600	7.651	43.710	22.272	9.666	4.218	1.774
NYG	6-4	0.596	69.547	73.547	37.950	16.130	6.931	2.890
SEA	6-4	0.594	10.321	55.654	29.253	12.547	5.418	2.247
PIT	6-4	0.562	10.878	72.083	30.211	10.996	4.320	1.719
MIN	6-4	0.535	9.285	21.401	9.463	3.429	1.297	0.465
NO	5-5	0.523	0.468	11.214	4.460	1.605	0.588	0.205
SD	4-6	0.523	0.234	24.273	8.806	2.860	1.032	0.373
CIN	5-5	0.521	1.690	31.750	11.558	3.743	1.344	0.485
WAS	5-6	0.518	18.734	21.860	8.572	2.998	1.064	0.365
DET	4-7	0.475	-	0.187	0.064	0.020	0.006	0.002
DAL	5-6	0.459	11.278	12.240	4.137	1.237	0.374	0.110
MIA	4-6	0.457	0.594	2.767	0.866	0.242	0.074	0.023
ARI	4-6	0.415	0.066	0.714	0.206	0.057	0.016	0.004
IND	6-4	0.403	0.763	51.221	13.403	3.113	0.806	0.210
CLE	2-8	0.403	-	0.159	0.039	0.009	0.002	0.001
BUF	4-6	0.383	0.042	8.381	1.994	0.428	0.106	0.026
CAR	2-8	0.376	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	4-7	0.367	0.003	3.998	0.897	0.181	0.042	0.010
STL	3-6-1	0.364	0.016	0.140	0.033	0.008	0.002	0.000
TEN	4-6	0.349	0.001	5.856	1.244	0.239	0.053	0.011
OAK	3-7	0.320	0.015	0.816	0.156	0.027	0.005	0.001
PHI	3-7	0.318	0.441	0.447	0.099	0.019	0.004	0.001
JAC	1-9	0.284	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	-
KC	1-9	0.270	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-	-

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)

First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]

Thanksgiving, 2012

I feel like I usually see lots of Turkey Red on blogs on Thanksgiving, and I didn't today, so here's one, because who doesn't love puns? Among my Turkey Red cards, I couldn't find a Tom, Bird, or even a Green (beans), so how about a Sisler? Sizzler? C'mon, that's comedy gold. My turkey won't be sizzling this year though, since I haven't yet convinced my Father-in-law to deep fry one, exactly the type of dangerous antics he's known for. But, I think I'm close. Maybe next year.

2010 Topps - Turkey Red #TR92 George Sisler

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 11, Final

San Francisco over Houston

Last night's game had the 2nd best team in the NFC hosting the best, and the 49ers pulled off a big win to swap places and put themselves in the #1 position. San Francisco has also become the overall Super Bowl favorite, edging out Houston by tenths of a percent. The Rams odds were reduced even more than they were after their Sunday loss, since Chicago was supposed to win this game and keep them a game closer to San Francisco, but instead they are 4 games behind with 6 to play.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	7-2-1	0.725	90.000	97.397	84.726	52.580	32.029	18.416
HOU	9-1	0.695	98.824	99.993	98.045	60.268	33.531	18.045
NE	7-3	0.688	97.811	99.010	77.124	43.111	23.374	12.406
CHI	7-3	0.672	45.374	83.519	59.866	31.117	16.256	8.341
DEN	7-3	0.651	99.765	99.894	76.395	38.421	18.824	9.197
ATL	9-1	0.645	91.839	98.381	89.576	47.277	22.375	10.834
BAL	8-2	0.616	87.687	98.994	76.674	34.806	15.625	7.060
GB	7-3	0.608	45.233	78.866	49.443	21.728	9.686	4.307
TB	6-4	0.600	7.698	42.684	21.894	9.499	4.148	1.812
NYG	6-4	0.596	64.511	70.752	36.757	15.618	6.714	2.906
SEA	6-4	0.594	9.928	55.058	29.127	12.478	5.393	2.322
PIT	6-4	0.562	10.669	71.836	30.945	11.681	4.767	1.896
MIN	6-4	0.535	9.380	21.424	9.514	3.447	1.306	0.488
NO	5-5	0.523	0.464	11.014	4.416	1.587	0.581	0.211
SD	4-6	0.523	0.220	22.673	8.471	2.840	1.068	0.386
CIN	5-5	0.521	1.644	30.527	11.463	3.839	1.435	0.517
WAS	4-6	0.506	10.882	12.646	4.822	1.633	0.561	0.195
DET	4-6	0.481	0.013	0.639	0.229	0.072	0.024	0.008
DAL	5-5	0.472	24.196	26.451	9.322	2.889	0.908	0.288
MIA	4-6	0.457	1.180	3.369	1.158	0.333	0.106	0.032
NYJ	4-6	0.419	0.850	10.048	2.871	0.718	0.206	0.056
ARI	4-6	0.416	0.056	0.620	0.181	0.050	0.014	0.004
IND	6-4	0.403	1.168	49.905	13.607	3.293	0.892	0.232
CLE	2-8	0.403	-	0.160	0.041	0.010	0.003	0.001
BUF	4-6	0.383	0.159	7.467	1.863	0.415	0.107	0.026
CAR	2-8	0.377	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-
STL	3-6-1	0.365	0.016	0.131	0.031	0.007	0.002	0.000
TEN	4-6	0.349	0.008	5.356	1.190	0.238	0.055	0.012
OAK	3-7	0.320	0.015	0.766	0.154	0.027	0.006	0.001
PHI	3-7	0.319	0.411	0.417	0.093	0.018	0.003	0.001
JAC	1-9	0.284	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
KC	1-9	0.271	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)

First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Chicago over Houston

Houston beat Jacksonville, and all my figuring is moot. Jacksonville is officially eliminated from the AFC South. So, I'll address a few other divisions.

AFC West
Kansas City has 2 games remaining against Denver, and so could finish 7-9 and win the division as long as Denver finishes 0-6, and San Diego and Oakland cooperate.

NFC South
Carolina is eliminated outright; Atlanta has 9 wins and Carolina will have at most 8.

AFC North
This one takes a few tiebreakers to figure out. My numbers show Cleveland eliminated, but is that really the case? Let's assume Cleveland finishes 6-0, and Baltimore finishes 0-6, tying them at 8-8. Baltimore has already beaten Cleveland twice, so that's no good. The Browns will need another team to tie with them and hope for a Rock-Paper-Scissors scenario that eliminates Baltimore and allows Cleveland to eliminate the other team in the tiebreaker.

Scenario A: Pittsburgh 8-8, Cincinnati worse than 8-8
Pittsburgh is 6-4, and the addition of the Baltimore and Cleveland games will make them 7-6, but more important to the scenario, they'll be 1-1 against Baltimore and 0-2 against Cleveland. Baltimore will be 1-1 and 2-0 against Pittsburgh and Cleveland, and Cleveland will be 2-0 and 0-2. So Baltimore wins that scenario 3-1 to 2-2 to 1-3.

Scenario B: Cincinnati 8-8, Pittsburgh worse than 8-8
Baltimore's Head to Head record is 2-0 and 1-1
Cleveland's is 0-2 and 1-1
Cincinnati's is 1-1 and 1-1.
Again, Baltimore wins 3-1 to 2-2 to 1-3.

Scenario C: Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both 8-8, remaining CIN-PIT game won by CIN
Baltimore is 2-0 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Pittsburgh, and 1-1 against Cincinnati, in total 4-2.
Cleveland is 0-2 against Baltimore, 2-0 against Pittsburgh, and 1-1 against Cincinnati, in total 3-3.
Pittsburgh is 0-2 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Baltimore, and 1-1 against Cincinnati, in total 2-4.

Cincinnati is 1-1 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Baltimore, and 1-1 against Pittsburgh, in total 3-3.

Baltimore wins again, nice and easy.

Scenario D: Cleveland and Pittsburgh both 8-8, remaining CIN-PIT game won by PIT

Baltimore is 2-0 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Pittsburgh, and 1-1 against Cincinnati, in total 4-2.
Cleveland is 0-2 against Baltimore, 2-0 against Pittsburgh, and 1-1 against Cincinnati, in total 3-3.
Pittsburgh is 0-2 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Baltimore, and 2-0 against Cincinnati, in total 3-3.

Cincinnati is 1-1 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Baltimore, and 0-2 against Pittsburgh, in total 2-4.

Again, it's all Baltimore.

So with all that, Cleveland really is eliminated from the division.

Of course, no team has yet been eliminated from the playoffs, as wildcards can let lesser teams in. One final note, Carolina did not win the Superbowl in any of my 500 million simulations, despite winning the NFC in at least some of them.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CHI	7-2	0.701	61.409	91.994	75.979	44.600	25.705	14.057
HOU	9-1	0.695	98.826	99.993	98.012	60.255	33.511	18.374
NE	7-3	0.688	97.872	99.060	77.546	43.431	23.534	12.728
SF	6-2-1	0.683	78.609	89.802	67.032	36.954	20.277	10.662
DEN	7-3	0.651	99.765	99.894	76.152	38.227	18.736	9.342
ATL	9-1	0.645	91.810	98.465	90.931	47.875	23.376	11.316
BAL	8-2	0.616	87.687	98.993	76.571	34.722	15.588	7.195
GB	7-3	0.608	32.725	77.765	48.755	21.833	9.927	4.413
TB	6-4	0.600	7.682	43.395	22.576	9.924	4.435	1.936
NYG	6-4	0.596	64.509	70.568	36.760	15.981	7.009	3.033
SEA	6-4	0.594	21.070	56.269	30.032	13.134	5.798	2.497
PIT	6-4	0.562	10.668	71.781	30.913	11.660	4.757	1.936
MIN	6-4	0.535	5.859	19.121	8.634	3.256	1.261	0.471
NO	5-5	0.523	0.508	11.584	4.717	1.707	0.640	0.232
SD	4-6	0.523	0.220	22.652	8.463	2.836	1.066	0.395
CIN	5-5	0.521	1.644	30.470	11.441	3.830	1.431	0.528
WAS	4-6	0.506	10.885	12.607	4.763	1.648	0.581	0.201
DET	4-6	0.481	0.007	0.573	0.202	0.065	0.022	0.007
DAL	5-5	0.472	24.195	26.531	9.266	2.935	0.947	0.301
MIA	4-6	0.457	1.185	3.565	1.216	0.349	0.111	0.035
NYJ	4-6	0.419	0.796	10.010	2.852	0.712	0.205	0.057
ARI	4-6	0.416	0.253	0.718	0.213	0.059	0.017	0.005
IND	6-4	0.403	1.166	49.859	13.595	3.290	0.891	0.238
CLE	2-8	0.403	-	0.159	0.041	0.010	0.003	0.001
BUF	4-6	0.383	0.147	7.454	1.858	0.414	0.106	0.027
CAR	2-8	0.377	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-
STL	3-6-1	0.365	0.068	0.191	0.048	0.011	0.003	0.001
TEN	4-6	0.349	0.008	5.346	1.186	0.237	0.055	0.012
OAK	3-7	0.320	0.015	0.763	0.153	0.027	0.006	0.001
PHI	3-7	0.319	0.411	0.416	0.091	0.018	0.004	0.001
JAC	1-9	0.284	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
KC	1-9	0.270	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)

First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

Wow. Most of the college football world certainly wept last night, as Oregon and Kansas State likely cleared the way for the SEC to make their way to the BCS Championship again. The SEC winner will be either #4 Alabama, #7 Georgia, #9 Texas A&M, or #10 LSU, but the ultimate winner will likely be a team that wins next week, and then gets a computer-rankings boost by playing an extra game - the SEC Championship - against a highly ranked opponent.

0-11 Southern Miss plays Memphis next week for a shot at the undisputed #120 rank (or #118 if you want to say Ohio State and Penn State get the #119/#120 slots). They'll probably have to lose to get it, as Akron plays a respectable Toledo team and looks destined for a 1-11 record.

1	Notre Dame	11-0
2	Ohio State	11-0
3	Florida	10-1
4	Alabama	10-1
5	Oregon	10-1
6	Kansas State	10-1
7	Georgia	10-1
8	Clemson	10-1
9	Texas A&M	9-2
10	LSU	9-2
11	Florida State	10-1
12	Stanford	9-2
13	Nebraska	9-2
14	South Carolina	9-2
15	Kent State	10-1
16	Northern Illinois	10-1
17	Rutgers	9-1
18	UCLA	9-2
19	San Jose State	9-2
20	Utah State	9-2
21	Oregon State	8-2
22	Louisville	9-1
23	Oklahoma	8-2
24	Texas	8-2
25	Michigan	8-3
26	Tulsa	9-2
27	Toledo	8-3
28	Louisiana Tech	9-2
29	Boise State	9-2
30	Ball State	8-3
31	Mississippi State	8-3
32	Northwestern	8-3
33	Arizona	7-4
34	San Diego State	8-3
35	Arkansas State	8-3
36	Fresno State	8-3
37	Washington	7-4
38	Cincinnati	7-3
39	Oklahoma State	7-3
40	Wisconsin	7-4
41	USC	7-4
42	UCF	8-3
43	Penn State	7-4
44	Texas Tech	7-4
45	Ohio	8-3
46	Vanderbilt	7-4
47	North Carolina	7-4
48	Navy	7-4
49	Middle Tennessee	7-3
50	Syracuse	6-5
51	Miami (FL)	6-5
51	Iowa State	6-5
53	East Carolina	7-4
54	Louisiana-Monroe	7-4
55	Bowling Green	7-4
56	Duke	6-5
57	Minnesota	6-5
58	Nevada	7-4
59	TCU	6-4
60	Louisiana-Lafayette	6-4
61	North Carolina State	6-5
62	Arizona State	6-5
63	Brigham Young	6-5
64	Georgia Tech	6-5
65	West Virginia	5-5
66	Missouri	5-6
67	Michigan State	5-6
68	Baylor	5-5
69	Ole Miss	5-6
70	Western Kentucky	6-5
71	Purdue	5-6
72	Virginia Tech	5-6
73	Wake Forest	5-6
74	Air Force	6-5
75	Arkansas	4-7
76	Central Michigan	5-6
77	Utah	4-7
78	Troy	5-6
79	Iowa	4-7
80	Virginia	4-7
81	Tennessee	4-7
82	Rice	5-6
83	Pittsburgh	4-6
84	Indiana	4-7
85	Marshall	5-6
86	Temple	4-6
87	Southern Methodist	5-6
88	Miami (OH)	4-7
89	Wyoming	4-7
90	Buffalo	4-7
91	North Texas	4-7
92	South Florida	3-7
93	Auburn	3-8
94	Maryland	4-7
95	Houston	4-7
96	California	3-9
97	Western Michigan	4-8
98	Connecticut	4-6
99	New Mexico	4-8
100	Kentucky	2-9
101	Florida Atlantic	3-8
102	Colorado State	3-8
103	Memphis	3-8
104	Florida International	3-8
105	UAB	3-8
106	UTEP	3-8
107	Illinois	2-9
108	Army	2-9
109	Boston College	2-9
110	Eastern Michigan	2-9
111	Washington State	2-9
112	Kansas	1-10
113	UNLV	2-10
114	Tulane	2-9
115	Colorado	1-10
116	Idaho	1-10
117	Hawaii	1-9
118	New Mexico State	1-9
119	Akron	1-10
120	Southern Miss	0-11

2012 History

[Week 1]

[Week 2]
[Week 3]
[Week 4]
[Week 5]
[Week 6]
[Week 7]
[Week 8]
[Week 9]
[Week 10]
[Week 11]

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Chicago over Houston

These Monday and Thursday posts are becoming a bit of a drag, often involving teams that won't affect things very much in January and February. Last night's 3-6 vs 4-5 game didn't change much except for reducing Miami's chances at the playoffs even further. The Bills brought theirs up for sure, but now they're at 4-6 along with Miami, both a half game ahead of the Jets, and 2.5 behind perennial favorite New England. That's a big lead late in the season.

And yes, Jacksonville can still win their division, despite my runs all failing to hit the scenario.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CHI	7-2	0.701	67.956	93.263	78.462	46.546	27.009	15.258
HOU	8-1	0.693	96.268	99.959	97.158	60.798	35.333	19.335
SF	6-2-1	0.683	79.368	91.969	70.881	39.532	21.809	11.859
NE	6-3	0.650	95.925	96.996	71.151	37.775	19.180	9.589
DEN	6-3	0.639	92.861	96.771	70.802	36.340	17.951	8.750
ATL	8-1	0.635	91.190	97.497	87.590	45.272	21.616	10.640
BAL	7-2	0.604	69.336	95.212	69.796	32.537	14.789	6.675
GB	6-3	0.599	25.158	69.170	41.289	18.194	8.157	3.705
NYG	6-4	0.596	72.547	77.815	42.003	18.392	8.095	3.652
SEA	6-4	0.594	19.695	61.297	33.016	14.475	6.413	2.878
TB	5-4	0.589	8.240	38.143	19.522	8.387	3.669	1.630
PIT	6-3	0.565	29.743	78.777	41.278	16.707	7.065	2.913
SD	4-5	0.538	6.899	32.711	14.373	5.315	2.149	0.829
MIN	6-4	0.535	6.597	23.791	10.746	4.073	1.584	0.619
DET	4-5	0.488	0.288	3.444	1.317	0.436	0.150	0.052
NO	4-5	0.488	0.568	8.193	3.114	1.031	0.355	0.123
CIN	4-5	0.479	0.917	13.661	4.985	1.537	0.545	0.182
IND	6-3	0.467	3.716	66.129	24.590	7.537	2.566	0.828
DAL	4-5	0.466	19.123	21.898	7.736	2.422	0.773	0.254
WAS	3-6	0.461	5.937	7.049	2.446	0.754	0.238	0.077
MIA	4-6	0.457	2.531	4.153	1.605	0.486	0.161	0.050
ARI	4-5	0.425	0.591	2.518	0.803	0.228	0.067	0.019
CLE	2-7	0.410	0.004	0.402	0.117	0.029	0.009	0.002
NYJ	3-6	0.394	1.046	4.483	1.341	0.324	0.091	0.024
STL	3-5-1	0.394	0.346	1.443	0.407	0.103	0.027	0.007
CAR	2-7	0.388	0.003	0.025	0.007	0.002	0.000	0.000
BUF	4-6	0.383	0.499	5.366	1.483	0.342	0.093	0.024
PHI	3-6	0.365	2.392	2.485	0.662	0.153	0.036	0.009
OAK	3-6	0.350	0.237	1.586	0.401	0.082	0.020	0.005
TEN	4-6	0.349	0.017	3.780	0.919	0.191	0.047	0.011
KC	1-8	0.307	0.003	0.007	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
JAC	1-8	0.287	-	0.007	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]