2012-11-23

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 12, Thursday

San Francisco over Houston

New England pushed closer to the top in team strength last night by clobbering the Jets, but Houston is a full 2 games ahead and very likely to get a first round bye, giving them a statistical edge in making the Superbowl. Note that the 100.000 shown as Houston's playoff odds is rounded up from 99.9995 or more. A clinched position will show with a plus sign (+).

Detroit played yesterday, and it seems wrong that they can be eliminated from winning their division at 4-7, with their division rivals at 7-3, 7-3, and 6-4. Surely they could still go 9-7 and win, right? As it turns out, the NFC North has a lot of intra-divison games left. Chicago and Green Bay each have 2 games against Minnesota, 1 game against Detroit, and 1 game against each other left to play. All that adds up to at least one of those teams finishing 9-7, and beating Detroit in a Tiebreaker.

It all sounds nicely wrapped up, except for the possibility of a tie. As you can see below, we've already had one this year. My software doesn't simulate ties, it always picks a winner in simulations. Actually, if at least one NFC North game ends in a tie, Detroit could win the division. My favorite example would be the Green Bay-Minnesota game in Week 17. If the other NFC Wildcards are 10-win teams, a situation could arise where the winner of that game wins the NFC North, and the loser goes home, but in case of a tie, Detroit wins and both teams go home. It's an extreme long shot, but it'd be interesting to see the strategy employed in overtime if it got down to 5 minutes or so left to play. That might even become the last tie ever in the NFL, as the ensuing outrage would mean something would be done.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF7-2-10.72589.59697.28684.17852.12631.74017.736
NE8-30.72299.36199.82482.57349.89428.73916.392
HOU10-10.69999.235100.00098.68460.63432.51817.630
CHI7-30.67245.40983.77259.91831.13516.2678.084
DEN7-30.65199.75199.89174.22935.37616.8458.233
ATL9-10.64691.88298.44189.72347.21822.35510.461
BAL8-20.61687.43298.97975.33932.25914.1136.376
GB7-30.60845.30579.38949.67021.8059.7214.169
TB6-40.6007.65143.71022.2729.6664.2181.774
NYG6-40.59669.54773.54737.95016.1306.9312.890
SEA6-40.59410.32155.65429.25312.5475.4182.247
PIT6-40.56210.87872.08330.21110.9964.3201.719
MIN6-40.5359.28521.4019.4633.4291.2970.465
NO5-50.5230.46811.2144.4601.6050.5880.205
SD4-60.5230.23424.2738.8062.8601.0320.373
CIN5-50.5211.69031.75011.5583.7431.3440.485
WAS5-60.51818.73421.8608.5722.9981.0640.365
DET4-70.475-0.1870.0640.0200.0060.002
DAL5-60.45911.27812.2404.1371.2370.3740.110
MIA4-60.4570.5942.7670.8660.2420.0740.023
ARI4-60.4150.0660.7140.2060.0570.0160.004
IND6-40.4030.76351.22113.4033.1130.8060.210
CLE2-80.403-0.1590.0390.0090.0020.001
BUF4-60.3830.0428.3811.9940.4280.1060.026
CAR2-80.376-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
NYJ4-70.3670.0033.9980.8970.1810.0420.010
STL3-6-10.3640.0160.1400.0330.0080.0020.000
TEN4-60.3490.0015.8561.2440.2390.0530.011
OAK3-70.3200.0150.8160.1560.0270.0050.001
PHI3-70.3180.4410.4470.0990.0190.0040.001
JAC1-90.284-0.0020.0000.0000.000-
KC1-90.2700.0000.0000.0000.000--

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)


[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]

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