Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Chicago over Houston

Houston beat Jacksonville, and all my figuring is moot. Jacksonville is officially eliminated from the AFC South. So, I'll address a few other divisions.

AFC West
Kansas City has 2 games remaining against Denver, and so could finish 7-9 and win the division as long as Denver finishes 0-6, and San Diego and Oakland cooperate.

NFC South
Carolina is eliminated outright; Atlanta has 9 wins and Carolina will have at most 8.

AFC North
This one takes a few tiebreakers to figure out. My numbers show Cleveland eliminated, but is that really the case? Let's assume Cleveland finishes 6-0, and Baltimore finishes 0-6, tying them at 8-8. Baltimore has already beaten Cleveland twice, so that's no good. The Browns will need another team to tie with them and hope for a Rock-Paper-Scissors scenario that eliminates Baltimore and allows Cleveland to eliminate the other team in the tiebreaker.

Scenario A: Pittsburgh 8-8, Cincinnati worse than 8-8
Pittsburgh is 6-4, and the addition of the Baltimore and Cleveland games will make them 7-6, but more important to the scenario, they'll be 1-1 against Baltimore and 0-2 against Cleveland. Baltimore will be 1-1 and 2-0 against Pittsburgh and Cleveland, and Cleveland will be 2-0 and 0-2. So Baltimore wins that scenario 3-1 to 2-2 to 1-3.

Scenario B: Cincinnati 8-8, Pittsburgh worse than 8-8
Baltimore's Head to Head record is 2-0 and 1-1
Cleveland's is 0-2 and 1-1
Cincinnati's is 1-1 and 1-1.
Again, Baltimore wins 3-1 to 2-2 to 1-3.

Scenario C: Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both 8-8, remaining CIN-PIT game won by CIN
Baltimore is 2-0 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Pittsburgh, and 1-1 against Cincinnati, in total 4-2.
Cleveland is 0-2 against Baltimore, 2-0 against Pittsburgh, and 1-1 against Cincinnati, in total 3-3.
Pittsburgh is 0-2 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Baltimore, and 1-1 against Cincinnati, in total 2-4.

Cincinnati is 1-1 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Baltimore, and 1-1 against Pittsburgh, in total 3-3.

Baltimore wins again, nice and easy.

Scenario D: Cleveland and Pittsburgh both 8-8, remaining CIN-PIT game won by PIT

Baltimore is 2-0 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Pittsburgh, and 1-1 against Cincinnati, in total 4-2.
Cleveland is 0-2 against Baltimore, 2-0 against Pittsburgh, and 1-1 against Cincinnati, in total 3-3.
Pittsburgh is 0-2 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Baltimore, and 2-0 against Cincinnati, in total 3-3.

Cincinnati is 1-1 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Baltimore, and 0-2 against Pittsburgh, in total 2-4.

Again, it's all Baltimore.

So with all that, Cleveland really is eliminated from the division.

Of course, no team has yet been eliminated from the playoffs, as wildcards can let lesser teams in. One final note, Carolina did not win the Superbowl in any of my 500 million simulations, despite winning the NFC in at least some of them.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CHI	7-2	0.701	61.409	91.994	75.979	44.600	25.705	14.057
HOU	9-1	0.695	98.826	99.993	98.012	60.255	33.511	18.374
NE	7-3	0.688	97.872	99.060	77.546	43.431	23.534	12.728
SF	6-2-1	0.683	78.609	89.802	67.032	36.954	20.277	10.662
DEN	7-3	0.651	99.765	99.894	76.152	38.227	18.736	9.342
ATL	9-1	0.645	91.810	98.465	90.931	47.875	23.376	11.316
BAL	8-2	0.616	87.687	98.993	76.571	34.722	15.588	7.195
GB	7-3	0.608	32.725	77.765	48.755	21.833	9.927	4.413
TB	6-4	0.600	7.682	43.395	22.576	9.924	4.435	1.936
NYG	6-4	0.596	64.509	70.568	36.760	15.981	7.009	3.033
SEA	6-4	0.594	21.070	56.269	30.032	13.134	5.798	2.497
PIT	6-4	0.562	10.668	71.781	30.913	11.660	4.757	1.936
MIN	6-4	0.535	5.859	19.121	8.634	3.256	1.261	0.471
NO	5-5	0.523	0.508	11.584	4.717	1.707	0.640	0.232
SD	4-6	0.523	0.220	22.652	8.463	2.836	1.066	0.395
CIN	5-5	0.521	1.644	30.470	11.441	3.830	1.431	0.528
WAS	4-6	0.506	10.885	12.607	4.763	1.648	0.581	0.201
DET	4-6	0.481	0.007	0.573	0.202	0.065	0.022	0.007
DAL	5-5	0.472	24.195	26.531	9.266	2.935	0.947	0.301
MIA	4-6	0.457	1.185	3.565	1.216	0.349	0.111	0.035
NYJ	4-6	0.419	0.796	10.010	2.852	0.712	0.205	0.057
ARI	4-6	0.416	0.253	0.718	0.213	0.059	0.017	0.005
IND	6-4	0.403	1.166	49.859	13.595	3.290	0.891	0.238
CLE	2-8	0.403	-	0.159	0.041	0.010	0.003	0.001
BUF	4-6	0.383	0.147	7.454	1.858	0.414	0.106	0.027
CAR	2-8	0.377	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-
STL	3-6-1	0.365	0.068	0.191	0.048	0.011	0.003	0.001
TEN	4-6	0.349	0.008	5.346	1.186	0.237	0.055	0.012
OAK	3-7	0.320	0.015	0.763	0.153	0.027	0.006	0.001
PHI	3-7	0.319	0.411	0.416	0.091	0.018	0.004	0.001
JAC	1-9	0.284	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
KC	1-9	0.270	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)

First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
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[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
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[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
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[Week 11, Thursday]