Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 10, Final

Chicago over Houston

All that really happened last night was that Kansas City's chances got even more dire. And Pittsburgh saved themselves some serious embarrassment in OT with a 16-13 win.

Given that lack of action, I'd like to explore how Jacksonville can win their division. I've said in the last several posts that I think it would take a 4-way tie, so I'll flesh that out a bit.

AFC South
8-1 Houston
6-3 Indianapolis
4-6 Tennessee
1-8 Jacksonville

First, Jacksonville must win all 7 games in order to reach the 8 wins necessary to tie Houston. Houston must lose all 7 games as well, otherwise they'd eliminate Jacksonville. Houston has 2 games remaining against Indianapolis, which puts them at 8 wins. So they'll have to lose their other 5 games. 4 of those games are against Tennessee, moving them to 6-8 with their games against Green Bay and the Jets undetermined.

AFC South
8-8 Houston
8-8 Jacksonville
8-8 Indianapolis
6-8 Tennessee

Let's examine the 3-way tie. The first tiebreaker for a 3-way division tie is Head to Head

H2H	HOU	IND	JAC
HOU	-	0-2	1-1
IND	2-0	-	1-1
JAC	1-1	1-1	-

Indianapolis wins with a 3-1 H2H record, and takes the division. That was easy.

The only other possible scenario is to have Tennessee win their two remaining games, and all teams are now 8-8. The first tiebreaker is the same.

H2H	HOU	IND	JAC	TEN
HOU	-	0-2	1-1	1-1
IND	2-0	-	1-1	1-1
JAC	1-1	1-1	-	2-0
TEN	1-1	1-1	0-2	-

This eliminates Houston and Tennessee from contention, and now Indianapolis and Jacksonville revert to the two-team tiebreakers. The first tiebreaker is Head to Head again, and they are tied 1-1. Next up is the division record. You can pretty much see the division record above, both teams will be 4-2.

The 3rd tiebreaker is common opponents. By the time this tiebreaker is reached, it boils down to who has the worse record against the 2 non-common opponents. Since the AFC South is playing all of the NFC North and all of the AFC East this year, those non-common opponents are from the AFC North and AFC West. For Jacksonville, those are the Raiders and Bengals, and for Indianapolis, those are the Chiefs and Browns. Jacksonville is already 0-2 against their non-common teams (so 7-5 against common teams), while Indianapolis has already beat the Browns and would lose to the Chiefs, making them 1-1 against non-common teams, and 6-6 against common teams.

It seems a little irrational that a win by Tennessee against Green Bay could swing the division from Indianapolis to Jacksonville, but in this case, it could.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CHI	7-2	0.701	67.953	93.284	78.506	46.575	27.027	15.275
HOU	8-1	0.693	96.266	99.954	97.173	60.836	35.384	19.364
SF	6-2-1	0.683	79.333	91.880	70.748	39.457	21.767	11.848
NE	6-3	0.650	93.627	95.843	70.184	37.248	18.929	9.463
DEN	6-3	0.639	92.862	96.659	70.726	36.373	17.981	8.765
ATL	8-1	0.636	91.189	97.510	87.639	45.306	21.628	10.647
BAL	7-2	0.604	69.339	95.030	69.739	32.568	14.808	6.685
GB	6-3	0.599	25.167	69.230	41.358	18.227	8.174	3.714
NYG	6-4	0.596	72.564	77.848	42.038	18.402	8.103	3.656
SEA	6-4	0.594	19.713	61.066	32.870	14.417	6.388	2.867
TB	5-4	0.589	8.239	38.224	19.563	8.405	3.677	1.635
PIT	6-3	0.565	29.740	77.833	40.934	16.592	7.019	2.893
SD	4-5	0.538	6.898	32.119	14.158	5.239	2.116	0.817
MIN	6-4	0.535	6.592	23.831	10.770	4.078	1.586	0.620
DET	4-5	0.488	0.288	3.452	1.320	0.436	0.150	0.053
NO	4-5	0.488	0.569	8.220	3.122	1.032	0.357	0.125
CIN	4-5	0.479	0.917	13.167	4.819	1.488	0.528	0.175
MIA	4-5	0.470	5.256	11.120	4.294	1.347	0.460	0.150
IND	6-3	0.467	3.717	66.112	24.678	7.566	2.576	0.831
DAL	4-5	0.466	19.111	21.899	7.732	2.420	0.772	0.253
WAS	3-6	0.461	5.935	7.054	2.447	0.755	0.238	0.077
ARI	4-5	0.424	0.602	2.541	0.811	0.230	0.068	0.020
CLE	2-7	0.410	0.004	0.388	0.113	0.028	0.008	0.002
NYJ	3-6	0.394	0.895	4.109	1.226	0.296	0.083	0.022
STL	3-5-1	0.393	0.352	1.454	0.411	0.104	0.028	0.007
CAR	2-7	0.388	0.003	0.026	0.007	0.002	0.000	0.000
BUF	3-6	0.381	0.223	2.523	0.692	0.158	0.043	0.011
PHI	3-6	0.365	2.389	2.483	0.660	0.153	0.036	0.009
OAK	3-6	0.350	0.236	1.469	0.373	0.078	0.019	0.004
TEN	4-6	0.349	0.017	3.659	0.890	0.184	0.045	0.010
KC	1-8	0.307	0.003	0.007	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
JAC	1-8	0.287	-	0.006	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]