Tenets of Wilson: 2019-10

2019-10-30

2019 World Series Projection, October 30

Houston over Washington

World Series
WSH 3-3 HOU

League Championship Series
NYY 2-4 HOU
WSH 4-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	Win
HOU	0.6673	58.35
WSH	0.5888	41.65

It all comes down to one final game. I've got Houston favored, though the road team has won every game so far. Apparently the record for road losses to start a series is 5, which has happened twice before (1906 and 1996) but then the game 6 winner won a home game to end the series. That's been worded carefully to say "to start" everywhere I've seen it, so I'm not sure if there has been a series with 6 road losses, or maybe more during the best-of-9 era.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington
Oct 13: New York over Washington
Oct 14: Houston over Washington
Oct 15: Houston over Washington
Oct 16: Houston over Washington
Oct 18: Houston over Washington
Oct 19: Houston over Washington
Oct 20: Houston over Washington
Oct 23: Houston over Washington
Oct 24: Washington over Houston
Oct 26: Washington over Houston
Oct 27: Houston over Washington
Oct 28: Houston over Washington

2019-10-29

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 8, Final

New England over San Francisco

Miami was briefly not at the bottom of this chart, mostly because they had only played and lost 6 games to Cincinnati's 8, and Washington and Atlanta's 7 out of 8. We're comparing pretty small numbers though, so they're bound to fluctuate a little each week just due to the stochastic nature of what I'm doing here. But Miami lost again to drag themselves down to the bottom. They only lost by 13 though. They're going to have to let in some more points or lay off the scoring to truly challenge for the worst team ever. Miami's chances of winning the Superbowl currently sit at about 13 of every 100,000,000 simulations, while Cincinnati is about 4 times as likely to win.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-0	0.743	97.72	99.97	98.95	70.59	49.22	30.65
SF	7-0	0.697	90.08	98.46	91.57	56.62	34.36	18.81
MIN	6-2	0.651	28.83	81.82	54.19	28.88	15.15	7.54
GB	7-1	0.598	69.03	91.95	68.81	33.50	15.16	6.72
BAL	5-2	0.596	80.93	86.55	62.68	32.83	13.80	6.35
NO	7-1	0.580	88.78	94.32	71.87	33.22	14.34	6.12
DAL	4-3	0.623	74.73	76.55	42.19	20.60	10.17	4.77
KC	5-3	0.580	76.69	79.48	51.03	24.57	10.10	4.48
IND	5-2	0.515	48.39	69.41	46.57	19.12	6.64	2.53
HOU	5-3	0.544	27.04	55.51	34.79	14.49	5.64	2.31
BUF	5-2	0.530	2.28	78.02	38.51	13.86	5.65	2.24
LAR	5-3	0.575	2.53	36.04	18.04	7.68	3.43	1.45
SEA	6-2	0.522	7.35	47.90	22.55	8.53	3.36	1.25
JAC	4-4	0.522	15.06	34.76	19.31	7.28	2.75	1.07
PIT	3-4	0.511	15.25	33.73	17.86	6.77	2.47	0.93
TEN	4-4	0.534	9.51	24.07	13.48	5.11	2.02	0.81
PHI	4-4	0.506	23.84	28.04	11.64	4.28	1.61	0.58
CAR	4-3	0.491	10.58	22.49	10.01	3.53	1.26	0.43
LAC	3-5	0.500	11.12	12.94	6.22	2.26	0.81	0.30
OAK	3-4	0.425	10.82	16.44	7.02	2.11	0.61	0.19
DET	3-3-1	0.489	1.28	9.86	4.14	1.44	0.52	0.18
CHI	3-4	0.516	0.86	7.57	3.26	1.21	0.47	0.17
CLE	2-5	0.406	3.80	6.93	2.73	0.77	0.22	0.06
TB	2-5	0.475	0.63	2.41	0.93	0.30	0.11	0.03
DEN	2-6	0.431	1.37	2.00	0.80	0.23	0.07	0.02
NYG	2-6	0.389	1.40	1.53	0.47	0.12	0.03	0.01
ARI	3-4-1	0.404	0.04	1.04	0.33	0.09	0.03	0.01
NYJ	1-6	0.312	0.00	0.15	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
CIN	0-8	0.336	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
WAS	1-7	0.309	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
ATL	1-7	0.362	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MIA	0-7	0.296	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 8, Sunday but for real this time

New England over San Francisco

I like watching football, and without a local team I'm no longer time-constrained, I just watch a noon game, a 3pm game, or maybe both. Yesterday happened to be a day I got to watch neither, and one of the approximately 50% of Sundays I don't get to watch the night game either. On those weeks I won't comment on the games themselves, since it feels a little disingenuous to just point out something cool I saw on Deadspin. So instead I just note whatever interesting facts come from the numbers.

I also still manually enter the scores into a file before running my numbers, which is prone to occasional errors. Earlier this year I gave Baltimore an extra 10 points over Pittsburgh, which wasn't terribly consequential. But for Sunday's games, I flipped the San Francisco and Carolina score, saw that New England was the only unbeaten team left in my output file and didn't even go look to see what happened, I just went with it. I owe a big thanks to Josh D. of Royals and Randoms for pointing out my error. Hopefully I would have caught it by Thursday since San Francisco will be playing the only game, but who knows?! Several years ago I put in some error checking that prints out the standings, points scored, and points allowed, but I have to convince myself to actually check it against a reliable source every week for it to work.

With all that said, here are the real numbers from Sunday, with Monday to follow later today, since my current results there are also wrong.

Everything I said about the NFC was wrong, and San Francisco is still in control. The Green Bay - Minnesota ordering is still somewhat interesting, with Green Bay, compared to Minnesota, being weaker, but more likely to make the Super Bowl, BUT less likely to win it. But the two of them combined are less likely to win the NFC than San Francisco.

I'll just copy and the AFC bit, because it still applies:
Of course in the AFC, New England is running away with it. The next best teams are 5-2, 3 wins and 2 losses behind. New England has almost a 1 in 3 shot of winning the Superbowl and we're not quite halfway through the season. For comparison, last year no team broke 29% until the Superbowl matchup was set, at which point someone has to be at least 50%. Also, it took until week 10 for anyone to hit a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, which New England also did this week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-0	0.743	97.63	99.97	98.92	70.67	49.26	30.67
SF	7-0	0.697	90.02	98.44	91.54	56.60	34.33	18.79
MIN	6-2	0.651	28.82	81.76	54.14	28.85	15.14	7.53
GB	7-1	0.598	69.03	91.94	68.80	33.49	15.15	6.72
BAL	5-2	0.596	85.42	89.16	64.64	33.94	14.25	6.56
NO	7-1	0.580	88.78	94.29	71.84	33.20	14.33	6.11
DAL	4-3	0.623	75.08	76.85	42.35	20.68	10.21	4.78
KC	5-3	0.580	76.67	79.68	51.40	24.78	10.17	4.51
IND	5-2	0.515	48.43	70.51	47.35	19.39	6.74	2.57
HOU	5-3	0.544	27.02	56.92	35.62	14.78	5.77	2.36
BUF	5-2	0.530	2.37	79.36	39.20	14.11	5.75	2.28
LAR	5-3	0.575	2.60	36.57	18.32	7.80	3.49	1.47
SEA	6-2	0.522	7.33	47.78	22.49	8.50	3.35	1.25
JAC	4-4	0.522	15.06	35.75	19.84	7.45	2.82	1.09
TEN	4-4	0.534	9.50	25.24	14.11	5.32	2.11	0.84
PHI	4-4	0.506	23.52	27.63	11.46	4.21	1.59	0.57
PIT	2-4	0.482	10.29	23.27	11.41	3.97	1.36	0.48
CAR	4-3	0.491	10.58	22.41	9.97	3.52	1.26	0.43
LAC	3-5	0.500	11.15	13.27	6.39	2.32	0.83	0.31
OAK	3-4	0.425	10.81	16.89	7.21	2.16	0.63	0.19
DET	3-3-1	0.489	1.28	9.80	4.12	1.43	0.52	0.18
CHI	3-4	0.516	0.87	7.53	3.24	1.20	0.47	0.17
CLE	2-5	0.406	4.28	7.66	3.01	0.85	0.24	0.07
TB	2-5	0.475	0.63	2.40	0.93	0.30	0.10	0.03
DEN	2-6	0.431	1.37	2.08	0.83	0.24	0.07	0.02
NYG	2-6	0.389	1.37	1.49	0.46	0.12	0.03	0.01
ARI	3-4-1	0.404	0.04	1.08	0.34	0.09	0.03	0.01
NYJ	1-6	0.312	0.00	0.16	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
MIA	0-6	0.322	0.00	0.08	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
CIN	0-8	0.336	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
WAS	1-7	0.309	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
ATL	1-7	0.362	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

2019-10-28

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 8, Sunday

New England over Green Bay

San Francisco finally lost a game, and we've got a weird situation in the NFC. I always list the favored conference winners, which are now New England and Green Bay. But, San Francisco is more likely to win the Superbowl than Green Bay, even though they are less likely to get there. Even less likely to make it there is Minnesota, yet they are even more likely to win it. That's largely because while Minnesota's strength is high, Green Bay is in their division and a game ahead in the standings.
(edit: oops!)

Of course in the AFC, New England is running away with it. The next best teams are 5-2, 3 wins and 2 losses behind. New England has almost a 1 in 3 shot of winning the Superbowl and we're not quite halfway through the season. For comparison, last year no team broke 29% until the Superbowl matchup was set, at which point someone has to be at least 50%. Also, it took until week 10 for anyone to hit a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, which New England also did this week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-0	0.743	97.63	99.97	98.91	70.70	49.23	32.10
MIN	6-2	0.651	29.35	76.48	52.21	29.27	16.38	8.14
SF	6-1	0.613	66.85	81.76	62.75	32.38	16.53	7.58
GB	7-1	0.598	68.44	88.63	68.58	34.00	16.84	7.46
BAL	5-2	0.596	86.25	89.97	66.16	34.86	14.60	7.16
NO	7-1	0.580	62.24	88.02	66.48	31.69	14.95	6.37
CAR	5-2	0.616	37.54	69.56	47.82	24.83	12.72	5.87
DAL	4-3	0.623	75.08	76.10	42.49	22.25	11.64	5.45
KC	5-3	0.580	76.68	79.80	51.57	24.76	10.17	4.82
IND	5-2	0.515	46.80	68.69	45.32	18.44	6.42	2.63
HOU	5-3	0.544	28.39	57.73	36.13	14.99	5.84	2.56
BUF	5-2	0.530	2.37	79.76	39.41	14.16	5.76	2.45
LAR	5-3	0.575	10.61	33.94	18.83	8.88	4.15	1.75
SEA	6-2	0.522	22.19	43.24	23.28	9.71	4.02	1.50
JAC	4-4	0.522	15.78	36.42	20.17	7.57	2.86	1.19
TEN	4-4	0.534	9.03	23.59	13.12	4.93	1.96	0.84
PHI	4-4	0.506	23.53	25.86	10.71	4.32	1.74	0.62
PIT	2-4	0.482	9.74	23.52	11.52	3.98	1.37	0.52
LAC	3-5	0.500	11.14	13.40	6.46	2.33	0.83	0.33
OAK	3-4	0.425	10.81	17.13	7.32	2.18	0.64	0.21
DET	3-3-1	0.489	1.32	7.24	3.15	1.23	0.48	0.16
CHI	3-4	0.516	0.89	5.27	2.38	0.99	0.41	0.15
CLE	2-5	0.406	3.99	7.64	3.01	0.84	0.24	0.07
TB	2-5	0.475	0.22	1.43	0.56	0.21	0.08	0.03
DEN	2-6	0.431	1.37	2.11	0.84	0.24	0.07	0.02
NYG	2-6	0.389	1.38	1.43	0.43	0.13	0.04	0.01
ARI	3-4-1	0.404	0.34	1.02	0.34	0.11	0.03	0.01
NYJ	1-6	0.312	0.00	0.16	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
MIA	0-6	0.322	0.00	0.09	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
CIN	0-8	0.336	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
WAS	1-7	0.309	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ATL	1-7	0.362	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

2019 World Series Projection, October 28

Houston over Washington

World Series
WSH 2-3 HOU

League Championship Series
NYY 2-4 HOU
WSH 4-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	Win
HOU	0.6673	82.65
WSH	0.5888	17.35

Houston got a gift when Max Scherzer couldn't pitch game 5, and they took full advantage. They're now one game away from their second World Series in 3 seasons. Everyone will have a day off to think about what they've done, and game 6 will be Tuesday night.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington
Oct 13: New York over Washington
Oct 14: Houston over Washington
Oct 15: Houston over Washington
Oct 16: Houston over Washington
Oct 18: Houston over Washington
Oct 19: Houston over Washington
Oct 20: Houston over Washington
Oct 23: Houston over Washington
Oct 24: Washington over Houston
Oct 26: Washington over Houston
Oct 27: Houston over Washington

2019-10-27

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

Ohio State held the #1 spot, and the only change at the top was Florida dropping due to their bye week and their 7-1 record not being good enough to keep them among all the 8-0 teams. So Clemson rose from #5 to join the playoff teams at #4, with SMU just behind them thanks to Oklahoma's loss.

Only one undefeated team lost this week, dropping the total to 9, and that was Oklahoma as I mentioned above, who lost to Kansas State

Missouri lost again. They can't go to a bowl anyway this year, but that's why I really wanted them to put everybody in a weird position by at least challenging for the SEC.

Another week, another 3 losses for Rice, New Mexico State, and your anti-champion, Akron.

1	Ohio State	8-0
2	Penn State	8-0
3	LSU	8-0
4	Clemson	8-0
5	SMU	8-0
6	Minnesota	8-0
7	Alabama	8-0
8	Oregon	7-1
9	Florida	7-1
10	Utah	7-1
11	Baylor	7-0
12	Memphis	7-1
13	Oklahoma	7-1
14	Appalachian State	7-0
15	San Diego State	7-1
16	Auburn	6-2
17	Cincinnati	6-1
18	Boise State	6-1
19	Navy	6-1
20	UCF	6-2
21	Michigan	6-2
22	Wake Forest	6-1
23	Wisconsin	6-2
24	Louisiana Tech	7-1
25	Air Force	6-2
26	Georgia	6-1
27	Iowa	6-2
28	Louisville	5-3
29	Georgia State	6-2
30	Wyoming	6-2
31	Indiana	6-2
32	Notre Dame	5-2
33	Kansas State	5-2
34	Pittsburgh	5-3
35	Iowa State	5-3
36	Hawai'i	5-3
37	Oklahoma State	5-3
38	Washington	5-3
39	Texas	5-3
40	USC	5-3
41	Arizona State	5-3
42	Texas A&M	5-3
43	Marshall	5-3
44	UAB	6-1
45	Virginia	5-3
46	Louisiana	5-2
47	Western Kentucky	5-3
48	Western Michigan	5-4
49	Temple	5-3
50	Virginia Tech	5-2
51	Missouri	5-3
52	Tulane	5-3
53	Utah State	4-3
54	Florida Atlantic	5-3
55	Toledo	5-3
56	Southern Mississippi	5-3
57	Florida State	4-4
58	Michigan State	4-4
59	TCU	4-3
60	North Carolina	4-4
61	Miami	4-4
62	Central Michigan	5-4
63	California	4-4
64	Duke	4-4
65	Miami (OH)	4-4
66	Boston College	4-4
67	Stanford	4-4
68	Kentucky	4-4
69	Eastern Michigan	4-4
70	Liberty	5-3
71	Nevada	4-4
72	Arkansas State	4-4
73	South Florida	4-4
74	Arizona	4-4
75	Ball State	4-4
76	Buffalo	4-4
77	Georgia Southern	4-3
78	Nebraska	4-4
79	Illinois	4-4
80	Ohio	4-4
81	NC State	4-3
82	BYU	3-4
T-83	Washington State	4-4
T-83	West Virginia	3-4
85	Mississippi State	3-5
86	Florida International	4-4
87	San Jose State	4-4
88	UCLA	3-5
89	Tennessee	3-5
90	Oregon State	3-4
91	South Carolina	3-5
92	Colorado	3-5
93	Texas Tech	3-5
94	Syracuse	3-5
95	Ole Miss	3-5
96	UL Monroe	3-4
97	Fresno State	3-4
98	Middle Tennessee	3-5
99	Houston	3-5
100	Kent State	3-5
101	Troy	3-4
102	Kansas	3-5
103	Charlotte	3-5
104	Maryland	3-5
105	Coastal Carolina	3-4
106	North Texas	3-5
107	Tulsa	2-6
108	East Carolina	3-5
109	Northern Illinois	3-5
110	UTSA	3-4
111	Army	3-5
112	Texas State	2-5
113	Georgia Tech	2-5
114	Colorado State	3-5
115	Purdue	2-6
116	Rutgers	2-6
117	Bowling Green	2-6
118	Arkansas	2-6
119	Vanderbilt	2-5
120	New Mexico	2-6
121	UNLV	2-6
122	UConn	2-6
123	Northwestern	1-6
124	Old Dominion	1-7
125	South Alabama	1-7
126	UTEP	1-6
127	Rice	0-8
128	UMass	1-7
129	New Mexico State	0-8
130	Akron	0-8

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State

2019 World Series Projection, October 27

Houston over Washington

World Series
WSH 2-2 HOU

League Championship Series
NYY 2-4 HOU
WSH 4-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	Win
HOU	0.6673	62.40
WSH	0.5888	37.60

The series is even at 2-2, and Washington's streak suddenly feels like it was a long time ago. Houston is now back on top and 62% likely to win the World Series.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington
Oct 13: New York over Washington
Oct 14: Houston over Washington
Oct 15: Houston over Washington
Oct 16: Houston over Washington
Oct 18: Houston over Washington
Oct 19: Houston over Washington
Oct 20: Houston over Washington
Oct 23: Houston over Washington
Oct 24: Washington over Houston
Oct 26: Washington over Houston

2019-10-26

2019 World Series Projection, October 26

Washington over Houston

World Series
WSH 2-1 HOU

League Championship Series
NYY 2-4 HOU
WSH 4-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	Win
HOU	0.6673	44.68
WSH	0.5888	55.32

Washington's winning streak is over at 8 consecutive playoff games, and Houston is back in the series. Even though Houston was still slightly favored down 1-0, they're not quite there down 2-1, so Washington remains the favorite for now. Game 4 is on Saturday, and we're guaranteed at least a game 5.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington
Oct 13: New York over Washington
Oct 14: Houston over Washington
Oct 15: Houston over Washington
Oct 16: Houston over Washington
Oct 18: Houston over Washington
Oct 19: Houston over Washington
Oct 20: Houston over Washington
Oct 23: Houston over Washington
Oct 24: Washington over Houston

2019-10-25

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 8, Thursday

New England over San Francisco

Minnesota beat Washington 19-9 in game that wasn't great, but did hold an interesting matchup of teams that indirectly swapped QBs. Kirk Cousins went from Washington to Minnesota after 2017, while Case Keenum played in Minnesota in 2017, Denver in 2018, and now Washington for 2019. They played each other in 2017 year too, with Case Keenum and Minnesota winning that one 38-30. Now I'm curious if there are any other examples of QBs who faced each other before and after moving to each other's team.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	7-0	0.714	89.54	99.85	95.78	64.76	42.69	26.04
SF	6-0	0.663	86.48	95.50	86.54	51.15	29.47	15.72
MIN	6-2	0.651	38.63	82.48	59.05	33.27	18.31	9.53
BAL	5-2	0.596	84.45	88.60	62.78	32.50	14.64	7.05
KC	5-2	0.591	81.71	86.25	61.70	31.53	14.00	6.67
GB	6-1	0.586	57.09	85.26	62.84	30.74	14.43	6.56
DAL	4-3	0.623	82.97	83.85	48.99	25.29	13.09	6.43
BUF	5-1	0.575	10.46	91.92	53.08	22.94	10.66	4.91
NO	6-1	0.535	64.60	81.75	55.77	23.73	9.78	3.96
CAR	4-2	0.560	33.15	52.99	31.92	14.28	6.29	2.69
IND	4-2	0.510	48.50	63.99	39.91	16.05	5.89	2.34
HOU	4-3	0.539	28.67	50.35	30.35	12.61	5.10	2.17
SEA	5-2	0.509	9.49	37.68	18.74	7.39	2.96	1.13
LAR	4-3	0.547	3.41	27.21	13.67	5.85	2.56	1.07
TEN	3-4	0.525	9.44	20.68	11.06	4.24	1.70	0.70
JAC	3-4	0.491	13.39	26.36	12.99	4.63	1.70	0.64
PIT	2-4	0.482	9.05	21.57	10.29	3.65	1.32	0.49
CHI	3-3	0.518	3.07	14.63	7.00	2.84	1.16	0.45
OAK	3-3	0.430	11.51	25.23	11.36	3.57	1.11	0.36
PHI	3-4	0.473	13.79	16.17	6.47	2.34	0.86	0.30
LAC	2-5	0.498	5.14	7.42	3.40	1.26	0.48	0.18
CLE	2-4	0.433	6.44	12.58	5.31	1.68	0.53	0.17
DET	2-3-1	0.480	1.21	7.14	3.11	1.14	0.42	0.15
TB	2-4	0.481	2.17	6.09	2.55	0.91	0.34	0.12
ARI	3-3-1	0.444	0.62	5.31	2.07	0.69	0.23	0.08
DEN	2-5	0.438	1.64	4.14	1.69	0.51	0.17	0.06
NYG	2-5	0.396	3.21	3.80	1.24	0.36	0.11	0.03
NYJ	1-5	0.336	0.00	0.88	0.25	0.05	0.01	0.00
ATL	1-6	0.376	0.07	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
CIN	0-7	0.364	0.06	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
MIA	0-6	0.322	0.00	0.08	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
WAS	1-7	0.309	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco

2019-10-24

2019 World Series Projection, October 24

Washington over Houston

World Series
WSH 2-0 HOU

League Championship Series
NYY 2-4 HOU
WSH 4-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	Win
HOU	0.6673	30.90
WSH	0.5888	69.10

With a 2 game lead, Washington is finally in the position of being the favorite to win the World Series. Game 2 was close until Washington broke the tie in the 7th with 6 runs. They've now won 8 games in a row since being down 2-1 to LA in the NLDS. The teams will have today off and resume play on Friday.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington
Oct 13: New York over Washington
Oct 14: Houston over Washington
Oct 15: Houston over Washington
Oct 16: Houston over Washington
Oct 18: Houston over Washington
Oct 19: Houston over Washington
Oct 20: Houston over Washington
Oct 23: Houston over Washington

2019-10-23

2019 World Series Projection, October 23

Houston over Washington

World Series
WSH 1-0 HOU

League Championship Series
NYY 2-4 HOU
WSH 4-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	Win
HOU	0.6673	51.01
WSH	0.5888	48.99

We're back to baseball after a few days off. Washington upset Houston in game 1, but is still just under 50% likely to win, despite the 1-0 series lead. Verlander faces Strasburg tonight, and I'm not really sure who I think has the edge there. It feels like a veteran vs a younger guy, but Strasburg is in his 10th MLB season! It's no 15 like Verlander, but he's far from the new kid anymore.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington
Oct 13: New York over Washington
Oct 14: Houston over Washington
Oct 15: Houston over Washington
Oct 16: Houston over Washington
Oct 18: Houston over Washington
Oct 19: Houston over Washington
Oct 20: Houston over Washington

2019-10-22

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 7, Final

New England over San Francisco

The highest possible strength for a team that has played 7 games is .71875 (7/16 of the way from .500 to 1.000), if a team allows 0 points. New England is quite close to that at over .714. Their 33-0 win last night helped a lot in offsetting the few points they have allowed this year. At the bottom of the league, the lowest possible strength after 6 games is .3125, and Miami is pushing up to that number too at .322.

I should call out a fix I had to make yesterday, I accidentally gave Baltimore an extra 10 points in their win over Pittsburgh, so the last few posts have had them slightly overrated and Pittsburgh slightly underrated. A few years ago I changed my software to print out the points scored and allowed so I can quickly check them against the advanced standings shown online, but I failed to actually check for the last few weeks. The difference was minimal enough today before and after the fix that I won't bother going back to fix the previous weeks.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	7-0	0.714	89.68	99.85	95.81	64.78	42.69	26.31
SF	6-0	0.663	86.36	95.74	87.03	51.95	30.45	16.24
BAL	5-2	0.596	84.46	88.60	62.70	32.44	14.61	7.13
MIN	5-2	0.627	31.30	74.18	50.05	26.83	14.11	6.99
GB	6-1	0.586	63.32	86.20	64.94	32.36	15.34	6.97
KC	5-2	0.591	81.88	86.44	62.06	31.74	14.09	6.80
DAL	4-3	0.623	83.24	84.18	50.18	26.23	13.73	6.75
BUF	5-1	0.575	10.32	91.73	52.91	22.86	10.62	4.96
NO	6-1	0.535	64.82	82.52	57.16	24.77	10.34	4.19
CAR	4-2	0.560	32.92	53.53	32.67	14.85	6.63	2.84
IND	4-2	0.510	48.50	63.96	39.83	16.01	5.88	2.37
HOU	4-3	0.539	28.68	50.34	30.32	12.59	5.10	2.20
SEA	5-2	0.509	9.63	39.44	19.72	7.85	3.20	1.22
LAR	4-3	0.547	3.39	28.35	14.26	6.17	2.75	1.14
TEN	3-4	0.525	9.44	20.66	11.04	4.23	1.70	0.71
JAC	3-4	0.491	13.39	26.35	12.97	4.62	1.69	0.65
CHI	3-3	0.518	3.80	16.01	7.75	3.18	1.31	0.51
PIT	2-4	0.482	9.05	21.57	10.28	3.64	1.31	0.50
OAK	3-3	0.430	11.31	25.13	11.30	3.55	1.10	0.36
PHI	3-4	0.473	13.53	16.04	6.57	2.42	0.90	0.31
LAC	2-5	0.498	5.16	7.53	3.45	1.28	0.48	0.19
CLE	2-4	0.433	6.44	12.58	5.30	1.68	0.53	0.18
DET	2-3-1	0.480	1.58	7.76	3.43	1.28	0.48	0.17
TB	2-4	0.481	2.19	6.41	2.71	0.99	0.37	0.13
ARI	3-3-1	0.444	0.62	5.66	2.21	0.74	0.26	0.08
DEN	2-5	0.438	1.65	4.23	1.72	0.52	0.17	0.06
NYG	2-5	0.396	3.14	3.77	1.26	0.38	0.11	0.03
NYJ	1-5	0.336	0.00	0.85	0.24	0.05	0.01	0.00
ATL	1-6	0.376	0.07	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
CIN	0-7	0.364	0.06	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
WAS	1-6	0.333	0.10	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
MIA	0-6	0.322	0.00	0.08	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00

2019-10-21

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 7, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

San Francisco won a low-scoring game to stay on top of the NFC. New England doesn't play until Monday night, but no one is really challenging them for the AFC right now. Buffalo's 5-1 record is the only thing keeping them from coming even closer to locking up a playoff spot, by offering a little bit of a challenge for the division. I don't think New York at 1-5 or Miami at 0-6 are going to catch up.

Speaking of Miami, they are terrible. I'm going to have to start running more and more simulations just to hit at least one extremely unlikely case where they win the Superbowl each week, instead of prematurely showing them as eliminated.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	6-0	0.681	83.30	99.40	92.15	58.83	36.43	21.10
SF	6-0	0.663	86.23	95.68	86.89	51.86	30.40	16.87
BAL	5-2	0.608	86.85	90.38	65.76	35.30	17.35	8.68
KC	5-2	0.591	82.48	86.97	62.62	32.13	15.14	7.32
MIN	5-2	0.627	31.31	74.16	50.02	26.82	14.10	7.29
GB	6-1	0.587	63.32	86.18	64.91	32.33	15.33	7.28
DAL	4-3	0.623	83.41	84.39	50.44	26.38	13.81	7.08
BUF	5-1	0.575	16.68	91.71	55.29	25.21	12.07	5.64
NO	6-1	0.535	64.82	82.50	57.13	24.75	10.34	4.39
CAR	4-2	0.560	32.92	53.50	32.63	14.84	6.63	2.97
IND	4-2	0.510	48.77	64.44	39.91	16.24	6.33	2.55
HOU	4-3	0.539	28.94	51.05	30.58	13.06	5.55	2.39
SEA	5-2	0.509	9.69	39.37	19.68	7.83	3.20	1.28
LAR	4-3	0.547	3.44	28.44	14.31	6.19	2.76	1.20
TEN	3-4	0.525	9.39	20.76	10.99	4.41	1.84	0.77
JAC	3-4	0.491	12.90	25.64	12.49	4.63	1.77	0.68
CHI	3-3	0.518	3.79	15.98	7.73	3.17	1.31	0.53
OAK	3-3	0.430	10.81	24.38	10.81	3.53	1.15	0.38
PIT	2-4	0.462	6.70	17.24	7.72	2.71	0.97	0.35
PHI	3-4	0.473	13.58	16.22	6.65	2.44	0.91	0.33
CLE	2-4	0.433	6.39	13.26	5.55	1.84	0.61	0.20
LAC	2-5	0.498	5.09	7.52	3.43	1.32	0.52	0.20
DET	2-3-1	0.480	1.58	7.73	3.41	1.27	0.48	0.18
TB	2-4	0.481	2.19	6.39	2.70	0.99	0.37	0.14
ARI	3-3-1	0.444	0.64	5.76	2.25	0.76	0.26	0.09
DEN	2-5	0.438	1.62	4.24	1.71	0.55	0.19	0.06
NYG	2-5	0.396	2.92	3.52	1.18	0.35	0.11	0.03
NYJ	1-4	0.381	0.02	2.83	0.93	0.24	0.07	0.02
ATL	1-6	0.376	0.07	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
CIN	0-7	0.364	0.06	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
WAS	1-6	0.333	0.09	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
MIA	0-6	0.322	0.00	0.08	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00

2019-10-20

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

Ohio State and Florida won and remained at #1 and #2. 2 teams dropped out of the top 4 with losses to low-ranked teams. Wisconsin fell from #3 to #17 by losing to #94 Illinois, and Boise State lost to #78 BYU, dropping them from #4 to #13. Replacing them in playoff position are Penn State and LSU. Ohio State and Penn State will face each other later in the year, but they could still both remain in the top 4, as Florida's lone defeat came to new #4 LSU.

We lost just 2 of the 12 undefeated teams this week, which were both the teams that dropped out of my top 4, Wisconsin and Boise State.

Missouri lost a game they should have won against #116 Vanderbilt, and fell to #37.

All three winless teams stayed winless again. New Mexico State was on bye, but Akron and Rice lost, with Akron still holding on to #130.

1	Ohio State	7-0
2	Florida	7-1
3	Penn State	7-0
4	LSU	7-0
5	Clemson	7-0
6	Oklahoma	7-0
7	SMU	7-0
8	Alabama	7-0
9	Baylor	7-0
10	Minnesota	7-0
11	Oregon	6-1
12	Auburn	6-1
13	Boise State	6-1
14	Cincinnati	6-1
15	Memphis	6-1
16	Utah	6-1
17	Wisconsin	6-1
18	Wake Forest	6-1
19	Appalachian State	6-0
20	Georgia	6-1
21	San Diego State	6-1
22	Pittsburgh	5-2
23	Louisiana Tech	6-1
24	Notre Dame	5-1
25	Arizona State	5-2
26	Iowa State	5-2
27	Texas	5-2
28	Navy	5-1
29	Washington	5-3
30	UCF	5-2
31	Virginia	5-2
32	Michigan	5-2
33	UAB	6-1
34	Western Kentucky	5-2
35	Iowa	5-2
36	Air Force	5-2
37	Missouri	5-2
38	Tulane	5-2
39	Temple	5-2
40	Louisiana	5-2
41	Wyoming	5-2
42	Georgia State	5-2
43	Louisville	4-3
44	Virginia Tech	5-2
45	Hawai'i	4-3
46	Utah State	4-2
47	Indiana	5-2
48	USC	4-3
49	Central Michigan	5-3
50	Michigan State	4-3
51	Duke	4-3
52	California	4-3
53	Liberty	5-2
54	Oklahoma State	4-3
55	Kansas State	4-2
56	Texas A&M	4-3
57	Western Michigan	4-4
58	Eastern Michigan	4-3
59	Southern Mississippi	4-3
60	Arizona	4-3
61	Nevada	4-3
62	Ball State	4-3
63	Boston College	4-3
64	Marshall	4-3
65	Florida Atlantic	4-3
66	Florida International	4-3
67	NC State	4-3
68	Nebraska	4-3
69	Florida State	3-4
70	Toledo	4-3
71	West Virginia	3-4
72	Washington State	4-3
73	Texas Tech	3-4
74	North Carolina	3-4
75	Miami	3-4
76	Mississippi State	3-4
77	South Carolina	3-4
78	BYU	3-4
79	TCU	3-3
80	Colorado	3-4
81	Syracuse	3-4
82	Miami (OH)	3-4
83	Arkansas State	3-4
84	Fresno State	3-3
85	Kentucky	3-4
86	Stanford	3-4
87	Georgia Southern	3-3
88	South Florida	3-4
89	Oregon State	3-4
90	Kent State	3-4
91	Ole Miss	3-5
92	Houston	3-4
93	North Texas	3-4
94	Illinois	3-4
95	UL Monroe	3-4
96	East Carolina	3-4
97	Troy	3-3
98	Army	3-4
99	Buffalo	3-4
100	UTSA	3-4
101	Ohio	3-4
102	Maryland	3-4
103	Coastal Carolina	3-4
104	San Jose State	3-4
105	Tulsa	2-5
106	Texas State	2-4
107	Tennessee	2-5
108	UCLA	2-5
109	Purdue	2-5
110	Georgia Tech	2-5
111	Charlotte	2-5
112	Bowling Green	2-5
113	Kansas	2-5
114	Middle Tennessee	2-5
115	Northern Illinois	2-5
116	Vanderbilt	2-5
117	Arkansas	2-5
118	New Mexico	2-5
119	Colorado State	2-5
120	UNLV	2-5
121	Northwestern	1-5
122	Old Dominion	1-6
123	Rutgers	1-6
124	UTEP	1-5
125	South Alabama	1-6
126	UConn	1-6
127	Rice	0-7
128	UMass	1-6
129	New Mexico State	0-7
130	Akron	0-7

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State

2019 World Series Projection, October 20

Houston over Washington

World Series
WSH 0-0 HOU

League Championship Series
NYY 2-4 HOU
WSH 4-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	Win
HOU	0.6673	67.76
WSH	0.5888	32.24

Houston's been the AL favorite for most of the playoffs as you can see below, and they finally finished off New York in the ALCS. I was trying to recall an article I read about all the possible World Series matchups that would be rematches of classic World Series or other big NL playoff series (since Houston used to be in the NL and have history against St. Louis, Atlanta, etc.), and I found it at fivethirtyeight. This matchup got no mention other than in the notes at the end of the most likely first-time matchups, of which this had the highest chance. It's fun to have rematches, but we have to pepper in some first-time matchups too, otherwise these teams can never be part of a rematch down the line.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington
Oct 13: New York over Washington
Oct 14: Houston over Washington
Oct 15: Houston over Washington
Oct 16: Houston over Washington
Oct 18: Houston over Washington
Oct 19: Houston over Washington

2019-10-19

2019 World Series Projection, October 19

Houston over Washington

League Championship Series
NYY 2-3 HOU
WSH 4-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6673	80.36	54.45
NYY	0.6148	19.64	10.98
WSH	0.5888	100.00	34.57

New York kept the series alive and now Houston leads 3-2. Because of the postponement of game 4, there will be no day off for travel, and game 6 happens tonight in Houston.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington
Oct 13: New York over Washington
Oct 14: Houston over Washington
Oct 15: Houston over Washington
Oct 16: Houston over Washington
Oct 18: Houston over Washington