Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 8, Sunday

New England over Green Bay

San Francisco finally lost a game, and we've got a weird situation in the NFC. I always list the favored conference winners, which are now New England and Green Bay. But, San Francisco is more likely to win the Superbowl than Green Bay, even though they are less likely to get there. Even less likely to make it there is Minnesota, yet they are even more likely to win it. That's largely because while Minnesota's strength is high, Green Bay is in their division and a game ahead in the standings.
(edit: oops!)

Of course in the AFC, New England is running away with it. The next best teams are 5-2, 3 wins and 2 losses behind. New England has almost a 1 in 3 shot of winning the Superbowl and we're not quite halfway through the season. For comparison, last year no team broke 29% until the Superbowl matchup was set, at which point someone has to be at least 50%. Also, it took until week 10 for anyone to hit a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, which New England also did this week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-0	0.743	97.63	99.97	98.91	70.70	49.23	32.10
MIN	6-2	0.651	29.35	76.48	52.21	29.27	16.38	8.14
SF	6-1	0.613	66.85	81.76	62.75	32.38	16.53	7.58
GB	7-1	0.598	68.44	88.63	68.58	34.00	16.84	7.46
BAL	5-2	0.596	86.25	89.97	66.16	34.86	14.60	7.16
NO	7-1	0.580	62.24	88.02	66.48	31.69	14.95	6.37
CAR	5-2	0.616	37.54	69.56	47.82	24.83	12.72	5.87
DAL	4-3	0.623	75.08	76.10	42.49	22.25	11.64	5.45
KC	5-3	0.580	76.68	79.80	51.57	24.76	10.17	4.82
IND	5-2	0.515	46.80	68.69	45.32	18.44	6.42	2.63
HOU	5-3	0.544	28.39	57.73	36.13	14.99	5.84	2.56
BUF	5-2	0.530	2.37	79.76	39.41	14.16	5.76	2.45
LAR	5-3	0.575	10.61	33.94	18.83	8.88	4.15	1.75
SEA	6-2	0.522	22.19	43.24	23.28	9.71	4.02	1.50
JAC	4-4	0.522	15.78	36.42	20.17	7.57	2.86	1.19
TEN	4-4	0.534	9.03	23.59	13.12	4.93	1.96	0.84
PHI	4-4	0.506	23.53	25.86	10.71	4.32	1.74	0.62
PIT	2-4	0.482	9.74	23.52	11.52	3.98	1.37	0.52
LAC	3-5	0.500	11.14	13.40	6.46	2.33	0.83	0.33
OAK	3-4	0.425	10.81	17.13	7.32	2.18	0.64	0.21
DET	3-3-1	0.489	1.32	7.24	3.15	1.23	0.48	0.16
CHI	3-4	0.516	0.89	5.27	2.38	0.99	0.41	0.15
CLE	2-5	0.406	3.99	7.64	3.01	0.84	0.24	0.07
TB	2-5	0.475	0.22	1.43	0.56	0.21	0.08	0.03
DEN	2-6	0.431	1.37	2.11	0.84	0.24	0.07	0.02
NYG	2-6	0.389	1.38	1.43	0.43	0.13	0.04	0.01
ARI	3-4-1	0.404	0.34	1.02	0.34	0.11	0.03	0.01
NYJ	1-6	0.312	0.00	0.16	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
MIA	0-6	0.322	0.00	0.09	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
CIN	0-8	0.336	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
WAS	1-7	0.309	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ATL	1-7	0.362	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco