2017-10-03

2017 World Series Projection, October 3

Cleveland over Los Angeles

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-0 NYY
COL 0-0 ARI

TeamStrengthLDSLCSWSWin
CLE0.6693100.0066.5644.0028.75
LAD0.6312100.0061.2136.8618.34
NYY0.621960.6724.5013.557.39
HOU0.6149100.0057.5524.7513.10
ARI0.597755.8524.2412.755.39
WAS0.5927100.0052.6624.249.99
CHC0.5789100.0047.3420.357.80
BOS0.5759100.0042.4514.796.54
COL0.540144.1514.555.801.78
MIN0.516039.338.952.900.92

Another season is in the books and the playoffs are about to begin. In case you don't recall how this works, team strength is determined by runs scored and runs allowed over the whole season, then I calculate the projected chances of winning each game and series based on that strength. Unlike my NFL projections, there are only up to 43 games (I think), and the only thing that matters in the playoffs is the series outcome, not which games were won or lost, so I calculate the chances directly instead of simulating millions of seasons.

At the start of the playoffs, I've got Cleveland favored in the AL and Los Angeles in the NL. Houston and Washington are also both in strong positions.

As I have been for many years, you should enter the 7th Annual Almost the Easiest World Series Contest on the Web at Collector's Crack. You can steal my projection, or take a random shot in the dark with probably equal odds. You've got until Sunday to enter, though, so maybe wait until a few games have passed to increase your chances.

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