2017 World Series Projection, October 4

Cleveland over Los Angeles

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-0 ARI

Team	Strength	LDS	LCS	WS	Win
CLE	0.6693	100.00	59.62	39.42	25.75
LAD	0.6312	100.00	61.21	36.86	18.27
NYY	0.6219	100.00	40.38	22.33	12.18
HOU	0.6149	100.00	57.55	24.04	12.72
ARI	0.5977	55.85	24.24	12.75	5.36
WAS	0.5927	100.00	52.66	24.24	9.93
CHC	0.5789	100.00	47.34	20.35	7.74
BOS	0.5759	100.00	42.45	14.21	6.28
COL	0.5401	44.15	14.55	5.80	1.76

The stronger team won as New York took Minnesota out of the playoffs in the AL Wildcard game. Since they were the stronger team, the field is now stronger, and everyone else's chances ticked down just slightly. The Yankees are right about where you'd expect them to be if all teams were evenly matched, about 1 in 4 to come out of the now-4-team AL, and about 1 in 8 to win it all.

If you're somehow obsessed with my hack of a system, (obviously more so than I am), you may notice that team strengths changed slightly. I realized I was using last year's runs per game when doing calculating those, and there was more offense this year. The effect is that strengths over .500 all go up, and those under all go down. Of course, being playoff teams, they all are above .500 and now stronger. The ultimate percentages didn't change too much, with the top 3 teams gaining no more than .21% on their World Series odds, and the bottom 7 losing no more than .07% each.