Tenets of Wilson: 2017-10

2017-10-31

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 8, Final

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

If John Elway came out of retirement, could he be an improvement at QB for Denver this year? I'm not saying Denver could have beat Kansas City with him, but it might not have really gone any worse. Kansas City is still digging out from their 2 consecutive losses, and still trail Philadelphia for the top spot in the NFC by about 7 percentage points.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	7-1	0.632	88.85	97.31	86.06	48.58	26.70	14.59
JAC	4-3	0.639	69.51	84.18	63.01	35.92	20.43	11.12
KC	6-2	0.595	91.21	94.35	73.42	38.11	19.54	9.73
PIT	6-2	0.586	85.05	93.08	71.67	36.59	18.30	8.95
LAR	5-2	0.623	50.11	80.99	57.81	31.24	16.64	8.93
MIN	6-2	0.599	76.95	86.91	64.49	32.99	16.53	8.46
BUF	5-2	0.587	48.94	83.68	59.03	30.05	15.07	7.38
NE	6-2	0.563	48.94	86.33	58.78	28.19	13.35	6.21
NO	5-2	0.585	61.42	78.01	52.27	25.54	12.39	6.16
SEA	5-2	0.586	49.20	74.98	49.66	24.49	11.99	5.99
BAL	4-4	0.551	12.78	47.64	24.96	11.52	5.33	2.41
DAL	4-3	0.565	10.87	39.54	21.61	9.96	4.69	2.24
CAR	5-3	0.515	22.78	44.35	22.44	9.20	3.82	1.63
HOU	3-4	0.543	14.17	30.23	15.26	6.97	3.19	1.42
GB	4-3	0.506	12.69	32.83	15.71	6.31	2.57	1.08
ATL	4-3	0.502	14.22	30.23	15.08	6.00	2.42	1.00
TEN	4-3	0.471	16.27	30.15	13.67	5.29	2.05	0.77
DET	3-4	0.513	9.56	19.28	8.95	3.65	1.52	0.65
CIN	3-4	0.467	2.18	11.99	5.00	1.91	0.73	0.27
DEN	3-4	0.453	4.16	13.28	5.43	1.99	0.74	0.26
LAC	3-5	0.502	2.49	7.35	3.29	1.37	0.58	0.23
WAS	3-4	0.462	0.27	8.13	3.24	1.15	0.43	0.16
OAK	3-5	0.457	2.14	5.66	2.28	0.84	0.31	0.11
MIA	4-3	0.362	2.01	9.42	3.23	0.92	0.26	0.07
TB	2-5	0.459	1.59	3.59	1.42	0.50	0.18	0.07
NYJ	3-5	0.439	0.12	2.48	0.92	0.32	0.12	0.04
CHI	3-5	0.414	0.80	2.00	0.70	0.22	0.07	0.02
ARI	3-4	0.368	0.69	1.73	0.55	0.15	0.04	0.01
NYG	1-6	0.401	0.01	0.09	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
IND	2-6	0.332	0.05	0.19	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
CLE	0-8	0.336	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	0-8	0.343	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville

2017-10-30

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

My projection stayed almost the same, with just the winner and loser swapping places, because Philadelphia won and Jacksonville was on bye. Jacksonville's playoff chances actually went up a little, but not as much as Philadelphia's did. We're getting to the point in the year when I have to run a whole lot of simulations to try to get every possible champion to hit at least once, because it'd be quite the rare universe where San Francisco wound up as your Superbowl champs. I ran 1 billion simulations, and the numbers I output for my own use still showed a 0.000000% chance, which means it was somewhere less than 5 out of that billion. By comparison, their odds of making the playoffs are about 40 in 100 million, and odds of making the Superbowl round to 1 in 100 million.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	7-1	0.632	88.57	97.24	85.86	48.46	26.64	14.67
JAC	4-3	0.639	69.50	83.81	63.95	36.92	21.22	11.55
PIT	6-2	0.586	85.07	92.92	72.76	37.60	19.03	9.30
LAR	5-2	0.623	50.11	80.98	57.82	31.25	16.65	9.01
MIN	6-2	0.599	76.95	86.90	64.50	33.00	16.54	8.53
BUF	5-2	0.587	49.50	83.44	60.24	31.06	15.73	7.71
KC	5-2	0.578	78.13	85.25	61.56	30.79	15.26	7.33
NE	6-2	0.563	48.39	85.29	59.27	28.78	13.78	6.41
NO	5-2	0.584	61.41	78.00	52.29	25.55	12.40	6.22
SEA	5-2	0.586	49.20	74.97	49.66	24.49	11.99	6.04
BAL	4-4	0.551	12.79	46.89	25.17	11.74	5.49	2.49
DAL	4-3	0.565	11.15	39.91	21.84	10.07	4.74	2.28
CAR	5-3	0.515	22.78	44.33	22.43	9.20	3.82	1.65
HOU	3-4	0.543	14.17	29.16	15.14	7.01	3.25	1.45
GB	4-3	0.506	12.69	32.81	15.70	6.31	2.57	1.09
ATL	4-3	0.502	14.22	30.22	15.08	6.00	2.42	1.02
TEN	4-3	0.471	16.27	29.42	13.81	5.42	2.13	0.80
DEN	3-3	0.476	15.33	26.93	12.91	5.06	1.99	0.76
DET	3-4	0.513	9.56	19.27	8.94	3.65	1.52	0.65
CIN	3-4	0.467	2.15	11.45	4.91	1.90	0.74	0.28
LAC	3-5	0.502	3.56	7.78	3.58	1.51	0.64	0.26
WAS	3-4	0.462	0.27	7.96	3.17	1.13	0.42	0.16
OAK	3-5	0.457	2.98	5.97	2.47	0.92	0.35	0.13
MIA	4-3	0.362	2.00	9.12	3.25	0.94	0.27	0.08
TB	2-5	0.459	1.59	3.59	1.42	0.50	0.18	0.07
NYJ	3-5	0.439	0.12	2.40	0.92	0.33	0.12	0.04
CHI	3-5	0.414	0.80	2.00	0.70	0.22	0.07	0.02
ARI	3-4	0.368	0.69	1.73	0.55	0.15	0.04	0.01
NYG	1-6	0.401	0.01	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
IND	2-6	0.332	0.05	0.17	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
CLE	0-8	0.336	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	0-8	0.343	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

2017 World Series Projection, October 30

Houston over Los Angeles

World Series
HOU 3-2 LAD

League Championship Series
NYY 3-4 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

Team	Strength	Win
LAD	0.6312	26.76
HOU	0.6149	73.24

Houston's now one win away from winning the World Series, and LA will have to win another game to stretch the series into November for game 7. This series has felt closer than a lot of recent matchups, with a few extra inning games, and some late lead changes. It definitely feels like one that will go a full 7 games, but we'll see what happens in game 6.

2017-10-29

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

Alabama was on bye and Georgia took advantage, retaking the #1 spot it held for 4 weeks earlier in the year. Penn State dropped from #3 to #4 due to their loss to Ohio State, who comes up to #8 with that win. The other big loss near the top was Washington state, down to #13 from #4, after losing to #26 Arizona.

Missouri won game 3 and is on the move now...up to #92. But maybe it'll save their coach's job for another year.

The bottom two teams stayed in position, but former #130 UMass has now won 2 in a row and risen all the way to #124.

1	Georgia	8-0
2	Alabama	8-0
3	Wisconsin	8-0
4	Penn State	7-1
5	Clemson	7-1
6	Notre Dame	7-1
7	UCF	7-0
8	Ohio State	7-1
9	USC	7-2
10	Memphis	7-1
11	Miami	7-0
12	San Diego State	7-2
13	Washington State	7-2
14	TCU	7-1
15	Washington	7-1
16	Virginia Tech	7-1
17	Oklahoma	7-1
18	Oklahoma State	7-1
19	Toledo	7-1
20	NC State	6-2
21	Mississippi State	6-2
22	South Florida	7-1
23	Iowa State	6-2
24	Michigan State	6-2
25	Boise State	6-2
26	Arizona	6-2
27	Stanford	6-2
28	South Carolina	6-2
29	Auburn	6-2
30	LSU	6-2
31	Michigan	6-2
32	SMU	6-2
33	Kentucky	6-2
34	Northern Illinois	6-2
35	Troy	6-2
36	Boston College	5-4
37	Iowa	5-3
38	Texas A&M	5-3
39	Marshall	6-2
40	Oregon	5-4
41	Navy	5-2
42	Northwestern	5-3
43	Army	6-2
44	Colorado State	6-3
45	Houston	5-3
46	Wake Forest	5-3
47	Florida Intl	5-2
48	Florida Atlantic	5-3
49	Ohio	6-2
50	North Texas	5-3
51	Colorado	5-4
52	UCLA	4-4
53	Southern Mississippi	5-3
54	Akron	5-4
55	West Virginia	5-3
56	Virginia	5-3
57	Arizona State	4-4
58	Fresno State	5-3
59	Wyoming	5-3
60	Western Michigan	5-3
61	Louisville	5-4
62	Syracuse	4-4
63	Georgia Tech	4-3
64	Texas Tech	4-4
65	Maryland	4-4
66	California	4-5
67	Arkansas State	5-2
68	UT San Antonio	5-2
69	Nebraska	4-4
70	UAB	5-3
71	Texas	4-4
72	Pittsburgh	4-5
73	Appalachian State	5-3
74	Utah	4-4
75	Western Kentucky	5-3
76	Louisiana Tech	4-4
77	Air Force	4-4
78	Duke	4-5
79	Florida	3-4
80	Kansas State	4-4
81	Tulane	3-5
82	Georgia State	4-3
83	Central Michigan	4-4
84	Utah State	4-5
85	Minnesota	4-4
86	Indiana	3-5
87	Arkansas	3-5
88	Purdue	3-5
89	Tennessee	3-5
90	Vanderbilt	3-5
91	Ole Miss	3-5
92	Missouri	3-5
93	Temple	3-5
94	UNLV	3-5
95	Florida State	2-5
96	Middle Tennessee	3-5
97	Rutgers	3-5
98	Buffalo	3-6
99	New Mexico	3-5
100	Connecticut	3-5
101	Hawai'i	3-5
102	South Alabama	3-5
103	Miami (OH)	3-5
104	Louisiana	3-4
105	Cincinnati	2-6
106	Idaho	3-5
107	New Mexico State	3-5
108	East Carolina	2-6
109	Louisiana Monroe	3-5
110	Kent State	2-6
111	Eastern Michigan	2-6
112	Illinois	2-6
113	Tulsa	2-7
114	Old Dominion	2-6
115	Ball State	2-6
116	BYU	2-7
117	Oregon State	1-7
118	Bowling Green	1-7
119	Texas State	2-6
120	Nevada	1-7
121	North Carolina	1-8
122	Kansas	1-7
123	Charlotte	1-7
124	UMass	2-6
125	Rice	1-7
126	Coastal Carolina	1-7
127	Baylor	0-8
128	San Jose State	1-8
129	UTEP	0-8
130	Georgia Southern	0-7

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama

2017 World Series Projection, October 29

Los Angeles over Houston

World Series
HOU 2-2 LAD

League Championship Series
NYY 3-4 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

Team	Strength	Win
LAD	0.6312	52.59
HOU	0.6149	47.41

The series is tied up again, and as I mentioned at 1-1, a shorter series always lessens the advantage of the favorite. So, LA's advantage is down just slightly to 52.59% from 53.24% when it was a 1-1 tie. They've got homefield advantage back, having now taken a game in Houston to make up for the game they gave up in LA.

2017-10-28

2017 World Series Projection, October 28

Houston over Los Angeles

World Series
HOU 2-1 LAD

League Championship Series
NYY 3-4 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

Team	Strength	Win
LAD	0.6312	33.89
HOU	0.6149	66.11

For the first time in a quite awhile, LA is no longer the favorite. Houston's 2-1 lead puts them in the driver's seat, and they could potentially win the next two at home to take the series.

2017-10-27

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 8, Thursday

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

Miami's playoff chances didn't actually fall all that much from their 40-0 shutout at the hands of Baltimore, but their strength fell from .447 to .362. That's pretty low for a team whose record is actually above .500. On the other side, Baltimore went from .459 to .551, and lifted their playoff chances from 21% to 48%. However, that doesn't take into consideration whatever time they may be without Joe Flacco.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	4-3	0.639	64.45	82.01	64.64	38.38	22.62	12.79
PHI	6-1	0.594	86.48	94.71	80.90	43.75	22.86	11.92
LAR	5-2	0.623	57.18	84.10	64.21	36.49	20.52	11.31
PIT	5-2	0.574	79.13	88.00	66.11	34.03	17.15	8.52
KC	5-2	0.578	73.16	83.72	64.43	33.34	16.93	8.49
SEA	4-2	0.590	42.08	70.75	48.79	25.43	13.26	6.87
MIN	5-2	0.564	62.66	78.67	56.41	27.81	13.51	6.64
NE	5-2	0.551	52.30	75.91	53.10	25.77	12.27	5.82
NO	4-2	0.567	58.99	70.96	47.42	23.33	11.41	5.63
BUF	4-2	0.545	42.63	67.13	44.98	21.47	10.08	4.72
BAL	4-4	0.551	18.36	48.47	27.66	13.26	6.36	3.02
HOU	3-3	0.550	20.50	39.43	22.89	11.05	5.34	2.53
DAL	3-3	0.541	10.72	29.72	16.44	7.61	3.54	1.66
DET	3-3	0.521	18.50	32.20	17.09	7.53	3.34	1.50
GB	4-3	0.506	16.27	36.08	18.85	8.01	3.43	1.49
CAR	4-3	0.481	17.82	31.06	15.33	6.13	2.47	1.01
ATL	3-3	0.491	14.90	26.66	13.84	5.70	2.36	0.99
TEN	4-3	0.471	14.92	28.41	14.25	5.77	2.33	0.93
DEN	3-3	0.476	13.31	25.99	13.27	5.38	2.18	0.87
LAC	3-4	0.514	6.32	16.75	8.70	3.87	1.72	0.75
WAS	3-3	0.488	2.76	22.69	10.73	4.36	1.80	0.75
OAK	3-4	0.498	7.21	17.49	8.89	3.79	1.62	0.68
TB	2-4	0.489	8.29	13.67	6.47	2.63	1.08	0.45
CIN	2-4	0.463	2.51	8.74	3.92	1.55	0.61	0.24
NYJ	3-4	0.449	1.14	6.45	2.80	1.06	0.40	0.15
CHI	3-4	0.433	2.56	6.54	2.77	0.99	0.35	0.13
MIA	4-3	0.362	3.93	10.92	4.19	1.25	0.37	0.11
ARI	3-4	0.368	0.74	2.05	0.70	0.21	0.06	0.02
IND	2-5	0.341	0.13	0.56	0.18	0.05	0.01	0.00
NYG	1-6	0.401	0.05	0.15	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-7	0.363	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	0-7	0.381	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

2017-10-26

October Card Show Autographs

I'm back to going to my local card show regularly, and collecting autographs of any Cardinals I don't have yet. This time I actually added a duplicate. I got a Kyle McClellan autograph at a free signing several in the fall of 2011, oddly enough during one of his best seasons. This one wasn't very expensive, and I got it authenticated pretty cheaply as well, so I decided to add it to my collection.

Dick Schofield

Kyle McClellan

Dick "Ducky" Schofield was there along with his son, also Dick Schofield. As Junior didn't play for the Cardinals, I opted not to get his autograph. Senior played for the Cardinals 3 separate times, starting off his career from 1953-1958 when he was traded away midseason. He signed with the team for 1968 and was traded away again in the offseason, to the Red Sox, who traded him back to St. Louis after the 1970 season, but he was once again traded away after another half-season in July 1971.

2017 World Series Projection, October 26

Los Angeles over Houston

World Series
HOU 1-1 LAD

League Championship Series
NYY 3-4 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

Team	Strength	Win
LAD	0.6312	53.24
HOU	0.6149	46.76

Houston finally won another road game, and the World Series is tied 1-1. We're back to pretty even odds, with LA favored by 53.24%. That's slightly below the 53.78% they started at, because now it is effectively a 5-game series. Longer series always raise the chances for the favorite, while shorter ones maximize the chances an underdog can advance.

2017-10-25

2017 World Series Projection, October 25

Los Angeles over Houston

World Series
HOU 0-1 LAD

League Championship Series
NYY 3-4 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

Team	Strength	Win
LAD	0.6312	68.81
HOU	0.6149	31.19

With a 1-0 lead, I give LA over a 2 in 3 shot at winning the title. Houston has still only won one road game this postseason. We'll see if they can get a second tonight.

2017-10-24

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 7, Final

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

As I suspected, Philadelphia took back the NFC favorite spot with their win. It's more because of their 6-1 record than their strength, though, because they're still behind the Rams in strength. So while that means LA would be favored in a head to head matchup, Philadelphia makes the Superbowl more often in my simulations.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	4-3	0.639	62.94	81.59	64.92	38.91	23.11	13.06
PHI	6-1	0.594	86.48	94.68	80.86	43.72	22.85	11.98
LAR	5-2	0.623	57.17	84.01	64.12	36.45	20.49	11.35
PIT	5-2	0.574	88.95	92.36	70.73	36.83	18.70	9.30
KC	5-2	0.578	72.85	83.44	64.20	33.58	17.18	8.62
SEA	4-2	0.590	42.09	70.59	48.66	25.36	13.22	6.89
MIN	5-2	0.564	61.30	78.20	56.02	27.61	13.42	6.63
NO	4-2	0.567	59.83	71.25	47.59	23.42	11.45	5.69
NE	5-2	0.551	47.55	72.78	50.67	24.85	11.92	5.65
BUF	4-2	0.545	38.48	63.74	42.61	20.54	9.72	4.55
HOU	3-3	0.550	21.36	41.70	24.71	12.01	5.85	2.78
DAL	3-3	0.541	10.72	29.51	16.32	7.56	3.52	1.66
DET	3-3	0.521	19.26	33.69	17.98	7.92	3.51	1.59
GB	4-3	0.506	16.98	37.73	19.84	8.43	3.60	1.57
TEN	4-3	0.471	15.56	30.32	15.61	6.37	2.60	1.03
ATL	3-3	0.491	15.18	26.70	13.85	5.70	2.36	1.00
CAR	4-3	0.481	17.04	29.58	14.53	5.81	2.34	0.96
MIA	4-2	0.447	12.92	34.70	17.77	6.77	2.56	0.95
DEN	3-3	0.476	13.17	25.62	13.18	5.39	2.20	0.88
LAC	3-4	0.514	6.81	17.48	9.16	4.11	1.85	0.81
WAS	3-3	0.488	2.76	22.56	10.67	4.34	1.80	0.75
OAK	3-4	0.498	7.16	17.35	8.88	3.81	1.64	0.69
BAL	3-4	0.459	7.69	21.13	9.70	3.79	1.48	0.57
TB	2-4	0.489	7.95	12.92	6.10	2.47	1.02	0.43
CIN	2-4	0.463	3.35	10.38	4.69	1.87	0.75	0.29
NYJ	3-4	0.449	1.05	6.76	2.94	1.12	0.43	0.16
CHI	3-4	0.433	2.46	6.42	2.72	0.97	0.35	0.13
ARI	3-4	0.368	0.74	2.02	0.69	0.21	0.06	0.02
IND	2-5	0.341	0.14	0.63	0.20	0.06	0.02	0.00
NYG	1-6	0.401	0.05	0.14	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-7	0.363	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	0-7	0.381	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

2017-10-23

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 7, Sunday

Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

We're back to the same projection from Week 1, which I was incredulous about at the time. Philadelphia plays Monday night, and will probably jump back ahead of the Rams with a win, but for now they're the NFC favorite. Both Jacksonville and LA jumped so far ahead due to shutouts this week. There was a third shutout, LA over Denver, and nearly a fourth, but Atlanta scored a meaningless touchdown toward the end of the Sunday night game.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	4-3	0.639	62.92	81.58	64.91	38.89	23.10	13.15
LAR	5-2	0.623	57.48	83.62	64.60	36.99	21.09	11.69
PIT	5-2	0.574	88.96	92.36	70.71	36.86	18.73	9.40
PHI	5-1	0.579	72.61	86.61	69.15	36.19	18.40	9.37
KC	5-2	0.578	72.86	83.45	64.19	33.58	17.18	8.70
SEA	4-2	0.590	41.79	69.81	48.84	25.68	13.57	7.08
MIN	5-2	0.564	60.96	77.35	56.46	28.24	13.87	6.86
NO	4-2	0.567	59.58	70.48	47.97	23.94	11.82	5.87
NE	5-2	0.551	47.53	72.78	50.67	24.85	11.92	5.71
BUF	4-2	0.545	38.49	63.76	42.62	20.52	9.70	4.58
HOU	3-3	0.550	21.36	41.69	24.71	12.02	5.86	2.80
DAL	3-3	0.541	14.08	29.59	16.82	7.91	3.72	1.75
WAS	3-2	0.508	13.23	36.71	20.56	9.00	3.91	1.72
DET	3-3	0.521	19.39	33.02	17.99	8.07	3.61	1.63
GB	4-3	0.506	17.13	36.80	19.78	8.55	3.70	1.62
TEN	4-3	0.471	15.58	30.34	15.61	6.36	2.60	1.04
ATL	3-3	0.491	15.29	26.27	13.91	5.83	2.44	1.03
CAR	4-3	0.481	17.13	28.73	14.43	5.88	2.40	0.99
MIA	4-2	0.447	12.93	34.71	17.79	6.78	2.56	0.97
DEN	3-3	0.476	13.16	25.58	13.17	5.38	2.19	0.89
LAC	3-4	0.514	6.70	17.25	9.05	4.06	1.82	0.81
OAK	3-4	0.498	7.28	17.59	9.02	3.87	1.66	0.71
BAL	3-4	0.459	7.68	21.12	9.71	3.79	1.48	0.57
TB	2-4	0.489	8.00	12.61	6.04	2.50	1.04	0.43
CIN	2-4	0.463	3.35	10.38	4.70	1.87	0.75	0.29
NYJ	3-4	0.449	1.04	6.76	2.94	1.12	0.43	0.16
CHI	3-4	0.433	2.52	6.33	2.73	0.99	0.36	0.13
ARI	3-4	0.368	0.72	1.89	0.66	0.20	0.06	0.02
IND	2-5	0.341	0.14	0.64	0.20	0.06	0.02	0.00
NYG	1-6	0.401	0.08	0.17	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-7	0.363	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	0-7	0.381	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

2017-10-22

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

Alabama retained their #1 ranking this week, in part because Georgia had a bye week. Penn State moved up to #3 from #7 with a big win over #31 Michigan. We're down to a mere 8 undefeated teams, but due to byes and hurricanes, 2 are 6-0, 1 is 8-0, and the rest are 7-0. If Miami or UCF make the playoffs with a shorter season, my system won't be kind to them, and just might give #1 to a team that doesn't win the title game.

Missouri finally won another game to move to 2-5, over Idaho, also 2-5. They rank just a smidge above Idaho now, 109 to 114.

At the bottom, UMass managed to pull themselves up out of last place with a win. The team they defeated, Georgia Southern, takes over the #130 position.

1	Alabama	8-0
2	Georgia	7-0
3	Penn State	7-0
4	Washington State	7-1
5	Wisconsin	7-0
6	TCU	7-0
7	Clemson	6-1
8	South Florida	7-0
9	NC State	6-1
10	Miami	6-0
11	UCF	6-0
12	Notre Dame	6-1
13	Memphis	6-1
14	USC	6-2
15	Michigan State	6-1
16	Washington	6-1
17	San Diego State	6-2
18	Virginia Tech	6-1
19	Ohio State	6-1
20	Toledo	6-1
21	LSU	6-2
22	Auburn	6-2
23	Oklahoma State	6-1
24	Oklahoma	6-1
25	Marshall	6-1
26	Stanford	5-2
27	Boise State	5-2
28	Mississippi State	5-2
29	Colorado State	6-2
30	Texas A&M	5-2
31	Michigan	5-2
32	South Carolina	5-2
33	Iowa State	5-2
34	Navy	5-2
35	Army	6-2
36	SMU	5-2
37	Arizona	5-2
38	Kentucky	5-2
39	Ohio	6-2
40	Northern Illinois	5-2
41	Troy	5-2
42	Virginia	5-2
43	Fresno State	5-2
44	Louisville	5-3
45	Boston College	4-4
46	West Virginia	5-2
47	Southern Mississippi	5-2
48	UCLA	4-3
49	Arizona State	4-3
50	Western Michigan	5-3
51	Iowa	4-3
52	Syracuse	4-4
53	Oregon	4-4
54	Texas Tech	4-3
55	California	4-4
56	Wake Forest	4-3
57	Georgia Tech	4-2
58	Appalachian State	5-2
59	Houston	4-3
60	Northwestern	4-3
61	Florida Atlantic	4-3
62	North Texas	4-3
63	Florida Intl	4-2
64	Colorado	4-4
65	Akron	4-4
66	Utah	4-3
67	Western Kentucky	5-2
68	Wyoming	4-3
69	Florida	3-3
70	Minnesota	4-3
71	Tulane	3-4
72	Duke	4-4
73	UT San Antonio	4-2
74	Central Michigan	4-4
75	Utah State	4-4
76	Arkansas State	4-2
77	Indiana	3-4
78	Maryland	3-4
79	Ole Miss	3-4
80	Purdue	3-4
81	Nebraska	3-4
82	Texas	3-4
83	Pittsburgh	3-5
84	Vanderbilt	3-4
85	UAB	4-3
86	Tennessee	3-4
87	Louisiana Tech	3-4
88	Florida State	2-4
89	Connecticut	3-4
90	Kansas State	3-4
91	Georgia State	3-3
92	New Mexico	3-4
93	Temple	3-5
94	Buffalo	3-5
95	South Alabama	3-4
96	Rutgers	3-4
97	Middle Tennessee	3-5
98	Air Force	3-4
99	Miami (OH)	3-5
100	Hawai'i	3-4
101	Cincinnati	2-6
102	Arkansas	2-5
103	Louisiana Monroe	3-4
104	New Mexico State	3-4
105	Louisiana	3-4
106	East Carolina	2-6
107	Eastern Michigan	2-5
108	Kent State	2-6
109	Missouri	2-5
110	Tulsa	2-6
111	Illinois	2-5
112	Old Dominion	2-5
113	UNLV	2-5
114	Idaho	2-5
115	Ball State	2-5
116	Oregon State	1-6
117	Kansas	1-6
118	North Carolina	1-7
119	Bowling Green	1-7
120	Nevada	1-7
121	BYU	1-7
122	Rice	1-6
123	Charlotte	1-7
124	Coastal Carolina	1-6
125	Texas State	1-6
126	San Jose State	1-7
127	UMass	1-6
128	Baylor	0-7
129	UTEP	0-7
130	Georgia Southern	0-6

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama

2017 World Series Projection, October 22

Los Angeles over Houston

World Series
HOU 0-0 LAD

League Championship Series
NYY 3-4 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

Team	Strength	Win
LAD	0.6312	53.78
HOU	0.6149	46.22

Houston finished off the all-home-winner ALCS, and advances to their first World Series as an American League team. For awhile there I was sort of rooting for them and Milwaukee to play, making it the first appearance for each team in their new league. I've got Los Angeles favored by a little, but they have homefield, so Houston's going to have to break out of their road slump to have a chance.

2017-10-21

2017 World Series Projection, October 21

Los Angeles over New York

League Championship Series
NYY 3-3 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

Team	Strength	WS	Win
LAD	0.6312	100.00	52.97
NYY	0.6219	50.73	24.26
HOU	0.6149	49.27	22.77

Houston continued the ALCS pattern of the home team winning each game, which bodes well for them tonight. I still show New York slightly favored, but I was curious what sort of homefield advantage factor would tip the scales toward Houston. As it turns out, if you assume home teams have a winning percentage somewhere between .507 and .508, the odds even out at 50%. So, in short, flip a coin on this one.

2017-10-20

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Philadelphia over Kansas City

After losing their second game in a row, Kansas City has yielded the Superbowl favorite position to Philadelphia. It was a 1 point loss, so their strength was minimally affected, but the loss dropped their playoff chances down to 82.5%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	5-1	0.579	78.59	89.65	74.89	40.99	22.24	11.92
KC	5-2	0.578	64.08	82.53	66.08	36.46	19.88	10.58
JAC	3-3	0.590	50.11	66.26	48.76	27.31	15.18	8.26
LAR	4-2	0.569	50.85	66.85	47.01	24.93	13.15	6.92
PIT	4-2	0.540	65.46	75.27	53.83	27.12	13.46	6.65
MIN	4-2	0.546	44.83	65.76	45.75	23.06	11.51	5.79
BUF	3-2	0.542	42.03	60.26	42.19	21.28	10.60	5.25
SEA	3-2	0.552	41.47	55.81	36.78	18.73	9.52	4.85
NE	4-2	0.522	41.52	61.41	41.82	20.17	9.61	4.57
NO	3-2	0.550	34.64	52.00	34.55	17.47	8.79	4.46
HOU	3-3	0.551	31.61	46.67	29.80	15.31	7.83	3.95
GB	4-2	0.524	32.27	54.63	35.03	16.73	7.95	3.82
DEN	3-2	0.525	27.58	50.51	33.07	16.00	7.75	3.71
CAR	4-2	0.513	30.41	49.53	30.93	14.42	6.69	3.15
ATL	3-2	0.524	25.38	44.17	28.26	13.51	6.42	3.09
WAS	3-2	0.508	14.22	39.54	22.93	10.52	4.87	2.27
DET	3-3	0.522	21.62	34.81	20.10	9.53	4.51	2.16
CIN	2-3	0.503	16.37	27.94	16.09	7.42	3.41	1.56
BAL	3-3	0.477	18.11	33.47	18.28	7.93	3.43	1.48
TEN	3-3	0.468	16.71	25.50	13.73	5.90	2.53	1.07
OAK	3-4	0.498	6.15	18.74	10.22	4.66	2.14	0.97
TB	2-3	0.494	9.56	17.06	9.22	4.10	1.83	0.83
MIA	3-2	0.431	10.38	23.06	12.10	4.71	1.83	0.71
DAL	2-3	0.487	6.79	15.06	7.91	3.48	1.55	0.69
NYJ	3-3	0.452	6.07	17.26	8.76	3.59	1.47	0.60
LAC	2-4	0.466	2.19	7.79	3.86	1.65	0.71	0.30
ARI	3-3	0.425	7.58	11.16	4.96	1.89	0.72	0.28
CHI	2-4	0.412	1.28	2.85	1.21	0.44	0.16	0.06
IND	2-4	0.383	1.56	3.22	1.37	0.48	0.17	0.06
NYG	1-5	0.439	0.39	0.98	0.42	0.16	0.07	0.03
SF	0-6	0.432	0.09	0.14	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-6	0.379	0.07	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

2017 World Series Projection, October 20

Los Angeles over New York

League Championship Series
NYY 3-2 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

Team	Strength	WS	Win
LAD	0.6312	100.00	52.57
NYY	0.6219	75.73	36.22
HOU	0.6149	24.27	11.22

LA finished off the series against Chicago with an 11-1 blowout, and advances to their first World Series since their 1988 win. They've never faced Houston in the World Series, obviously, since they were an NL team until a few years ago. But, their 3 previous appearances before 1988 were all against New York, and they've faced off 11 times total, going back to the Brooklyn Dodgers. I give it about a 3 in 4 chance of matchup #12 happening this year.

2017-10-19

2017 World Series Projection, October 19

Los Angeles over New York

League Championship Series
NYY 3-2 HOU
CHC 1-3 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

Team	Strength	WS	Win
LAD	0.6312	91.16	47.92
NYY	0.6219	75.73	37.01
HOU	0.6149	24.27	11.47
CHC	0.5789	8.84	3.60

Chicago kept their series alive for another day, and will try to do the same today. Meanwhile, New York won their third game in a row to go up 3-2 after trailing 0-2.

2017-10-18

2017 World Series Projection, October 18

Los Angeles over New York

League Championship Series
NYY 2-2 HOU
CHC 0-3 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

Team	Strength	WS	Win
LAD	0.6312	96.06	50.87
NYY	0.6219	51.10	24.68
HOU	0.6149	48.90	22.83
CHC	0.5789	3.94	1.62

LA is on the brink of a sweep, while New York tied up their series to regain a slight advantage. With pretty much everyone available for Chicago tonight we might see even more pitching changes than usual for this postseason, but LA looks unstoppable so far.

2017-10-17

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 6, Final

Kansas City over Philadelphia

Monday night games between non-contenders never affect things much. Tennessee improved to 3-3, but is still sub-.500 considering their points scored and allowed, and has a 25% chance of making the playoffs, up from 15% before the game. Meanwhile, Indianapolis dropped to 3.28% from 8.81%, but the top teams barely budged, nor did their fellow AFC South teams Jacksonville and Houston, also both 3-3.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	5-1	0.580	74.77	89.78	76.22	42.32	23.14	12.37
PHI	5-1	0.579	78.62	89.65	74.90	41.00	22.24	11.87
JAC	3-3	0.589	50.09	66.34	48.10	26.81	14.80	8.05
LAR	4-2	0.569	50.83	66.82	46.98	24.92	13.14	6.88
PIT	4-2	0.540	65.48	75.37	52.97	26.55	13.09	6.46
MIN	4-2	0.546	44.81	65.75	45.74	23.05	11.51	5.76
BUF	3-2	0.542	42.02	60.41	41.64	20.87	10.34	5.12
SEA	3-2	0.552	41.49	55.81	36.78	18.73	9.52	4.83
NE	4-2	0.522	41.53	61.68	41.46	19.87	9.41	4.47
NO	3-2	0.550	34.63	52.00	34.55	17.47	8.79	4.43
HOU	3-3	0.550	31.61	47.06	29.59	15.11	7.68	3.87
GB	4-2	0.524	32.28	54.63	35.03	16.74	7.95	3.80
DEN	3-2	0.525	21.09	49.87	31.25	14.96	7.23	3.46
CAR	4-2	0.513	30.43	49.55	30.94	14.43	6.70	3.13
ATL	3-2	0.524	25.38	44.19	28.27	13.51	6.43	3.08
WAS	3-2	0.508	14.21	39.50	22.91	10.51	4.87	2.25
DET	3-3	0.521	21.63	34.82	20.12	9.53	4.52	2.15
CIN	2-3	0.503	16.37	28.09	15.92	7.29	3.34	1.52
BAL	3-3	0.477	18.08	33.44	17.95	7.72	3.32	1.43
TEN	3-3	0.468	16.73	25.70	13.57	5.79	2.46	1.04
TB	2-3	0.494	9.56	17.06	9.22	4.11	1.83	0.82
MIA	3-2	0.431	10.38	23.17	11.96	4.62	1.78	0.69
DAL	2-3	0.487	6.78	15.06	7.90	3.48	1.55	0.68
NYJ	3-3	0.452	6.07	17.46	8.74	3.55	1.45	0.59
OAK	2-4	0.496	2.72	10.71	5.62	2.53	1.15	0.52
ARI	3-3	0.425	7.59	11.17	4.96	1.89	0.73	0.28
LAC	2-4	0.466	1.42	7.54	3.61	1.52	0.65	0.27
CHI	2-4	0.412	1.28	2.86	1.21	0.44	0.16	0.06
IND	2-4	0.383	1.56	3.28	1.37	0.47	0.16	0.06
NYG	1-5	0.439	0.39	0.98	0.42	0.16	0.07	0.03
SF	0-6	0.432	0.09	0.14	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-6	0.380	0.07	0.10	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

2017 World Series Projection, October 17

Los Angeles over Houston

League Championship Series
NYY 1-2 HOU
CHC 0-2 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

Team	Strength	WS	Win
LAD	0.6312	87.33	46.51
NYY	0.6219	32.36	15.96
HOU	0.6149	67.64	32.28
CHC	0.5789	12.67	5.24

New York won their first game of the series, but still trails 2-1 in the series, and about 2:1 in the odds. The NLCS resumes today after an off day, and the ALCS continues as well.

2017-10-16

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Kansas City over Philadelphia

The races tightened a bit at the edges, with undefeated Kansas City losing to at home to Pittsburgh, and the winless Giants winning in Denver. But, the projected Superbowl matchup remains the same. I actually attended the game in Kansas City this week, my first NFL game outside of St. Louis. There was a healthy contingent of Pittsburgh fans, but the game was close and interesting enough to keep the crowd focused on that instead of hassling each other too much.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	5-1	0.580	74.92	89.99	76.46	42.50	23.23	12.42
PHI	5-1	0.579	78.61	89.64	74.85	40.97	22.22	11.85
JAC	3-3	0.589	52.74	67.69	49.09	27.37	15.11	8.22
LAR	4-2	0.569	51.12	67.17	47.32	25.10	13.23	6.93
PIT	4-2	0.540	65.47	75.68	53.38	26.77	13.20	6.52
MIN	4-2	0.546	44.81	65.71	45.70	23.04	11.50	5.75
BUF	3-2	0.542	41.77	60.48	41.66	20.88	10.34	5.13
SEA	3-2	0.552	41.13	55.66	36.69	18.68	9.49	4.81
NE	4-2	0.522	41.68	62.02	41.72	20.01	9.47	4.51
NO	3-2	0.550	34.63	51.95	34.50	17.45	8.78	4.43
HOU	3-3	0.550	32.82	47.96	30.11	15.38	7.81	3.94
GB	4-2	0.524	32.28	54.60	35.01	16.72	7.95	3.80
DEN	3-2	0.525	20.92	49.92	31.25	14.96	7.22	3.46
CAR	4-2	0.513	30.41	49.49	30.89	14.41	6.69	3.13
ATL	3-2	0.524	25.39	44.14	28.24	13.49	6.42	3.07
WAS	3-2	0.508	14.21	39.45	22.88	10.49	4.86	2.25
DET	3-3	0.521	21.62	34.78	20.08	9.52	4.51	2.15
CIN	2-3	0.503	16.38	28.52	16.20	7.42	3.39	1.55
BAL	3-3	0.477	18.09	33.98	18.26	7.86	3.38	1.46
TB	2-3	0.494	9.57	17.05	9.21	4.10	1.83	0.82
MIA	3-2	0.431	10.43	23.39	12.08	4.67	1.80	0.69
DAL	2-3	0.487	6.79	15.05	7.90	3.48	1.55	0.68
NYJ	3-3	0.452	6.11	17.76	8.89	3.61	1.47	0.60
OAK	2-4	0.496	2.74	10.83	5.68	2.56	1.16	0.52
TEN	2-3	0.443	9.81	15.18	7.44	3.00	1.21	0.48
ARI	3-3	0.425	7.66	11.33	5.05	1.92	0.74	0.28
LAC	2-4	0.467	1.42	7.69	3.69	1.55	0.66	0.28
IND	2-3	0.402	4.62	8.81	4.03	1.46	0.53	0.19
CHI	2-4	0.412	1.29	2.86	1.21	0.44	0.16	0.06
NYG	1-5	0.439	0.39	0.98	0.42	0.16	0.07	0.03
SF	0-6	0.432	0.09	0.14	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-6	0.380	0.07	0.10	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

2017 World Series Projection, October 16

Los Angeles over Houston

League Championship Series
NYY 0-2 HOU
CHC 0-2 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

Team	Strength	WS	Win
LAD	0.6312	87.33	46.69
NYY	0.6219	19.68	9.71
HOU	0.6149	80.32	38.34
CHC	0.5789	12.67	5.27

LA took a 2-0 lead, which combined with their strength advantage, gives them about a 7 in 8 chance of advancing. The ALCS resumes tonight.

2017-10-15

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

No time for analysis this week, except to say Missouri dragged down Georgia because they're so bad, and Alabama takes #1.

1	Alabama	7-0
2	Georgia	7-0
3	Clemson	6-1
4	USC	6-1
5	NC State	6-1
6	San Diego State	6-1
7	Penn State	6-0
8	TCU	6-0
9	Washington	6-1
10	Washington State	6-1
11	Ohio State	6-1
12	Wisconsin	6-0
13	South Florida	6-0
14	Miami	5-0
15	Michigan State	5-1
16	Stanford	5-2
17	Texas A&M	5-2
18	UCF	5-0
19	Memphis	5-1
20	Virginia Tech	5-1
21	Michigan	5-1
22	South Carolina	5-2
23	Notre Dame	5-1
24	Navy	5-1
25	Toledo	5-1
26	Auburn	5-2
27	LSU	5-2
28	Virginia	5-1
29	Oklahoma	5-1
30	Kentucky	5-1
31	Oklahoma State	5-1
32	Iowa	4-2
33	Marshall	5-1
34	Oregon	4-3
35	California	4-3
36	Colorado State	5-2
37	Boise State	4-2
38	Texas Tech	4-2
39	Wake Forest	4-2
40	Northern Illinois	4-2
41	Mississippi State	4-2
42	Army	5-2
43	Syracuse	4-3
44	SMU	4-2
45	Iowa State	4-2
46	North Texas	4-2
47	Arizona	4-2
48	Ohio	5-2
49	Houston	4-2
50	Western Michigan	4-2
51	Utah	4-2
52	West Virginia	4-2
53	Troy	4-2
54	Louisville	4-3
55	Florida Intl	4-2
56	Duke	4-3
57	Southern Mississippi	4-2
58	Arizona State	3-3
59	Wyoming	4-2
60	Fresno State	4-2
61	Colorado	4-3
62	Florida	3-3
63	Appalachian State	4-2
64	UCLA	3-3
65	UAB	4-2
66	Boston College	3-4
67	Tulane	3-3
68	Indiana	3-3
69	Purdue	3-3
70	Ole Miss	3-3
71	Maryland	3-3
72	Georgia Tech	3-2
73	Texas	3-3
74	Nebraska	3-4
75	Florida Atlantic	3-3
76	Northwestern	3-3
77	Vanderbilt	3-4
78	Florida State	2-3
79	Western Kentucky	4-2
80	Louisiana Tech	3-3
81	Minnesota	3-3
82	Tennessee	3-3
83	Georgia State	3-2
84	Buffalo	3-4
85	Kansas State	3-3
86	UT San Antonio	3-2
87	Akron	3-3
88	Middle Tennessee	3-4
89	New Mexico	3-3
90	Utah State	3-4
91	Louisiana Monroe	3-3
92	Temple	3-4
93	Louisiana	3-3
94	Arkansas State	3-2
95	Central Michigan	3-4
96	Arkansas	2-4
97	Cincinnati	2-5
98	Hawai'i	3-4
99	New Mexico State	3-4
100	Pittsburgh	2-5
101	Tulsa	2-5
102	Eastern Michigan	2-4
103	Air Force	2-4
104	Connecticut	2-4
105	Kent State	2-5
106	Illinois	2-4
107	Rutgers	2-4
108	South Alabama	2-4
109	UNLV	2-4
110	Old Dominion	2-4
111	Idaho	2-4
112	Ball State	2-4
113	Miami (OH)	2-5
114	Missouri	1-5
115	East Carolina	1-6
116	Oregon State	1-6
117	North Carolina	1-6
118	Nevada	1-6
119	Kansas	1-5
120	BYU	1-6
121	Rice	1-5
122	Bowling Green	1-6
123	Coastal Carolina	1-5
124	Texas State	1-6
125	San Jose State	1-7
126	Georgia Southern	0-5
127	Baylor	0-6
128	Charlotte	0-7
129	UTEP	0-7
130	UMass	0-6

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia