Tenets of Wilson

2023-11-21

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 11, Final

Baltimore over San Francisco

We had another good single-game day, with two teams who have been conference favorites this year playing. Philadelphia beat Kansas City, and finally crosses that 99.9% threshold. Note that when I show 100.0, that's rounded. An actual clinch with display with a plus (+).

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	8-3	0.714	60.1	97.5	74.2	47.6	29.8	17.4
SF	7-3	0.703	91.9	99.1	74.3	46.6	28.1	16.1
DAL	7-3	0.696	18.9	98.0	68.3	41.1	24.2	13.7
PHI	9-1	0.605	81.1	100.0	82.1	42.2	19.3	9.0
KC	7-3	0.628	93.1	96.3	67.2	35.6	17.5	8.6
CLE	7-3	0.597	35.6	93.5	55.7	26.7	12.4	5.6
MIA	7-3	0.603	68.9	88.9	51.2	24.9	11.7	5.4
BUF	6-5	0.684	30.5	50.3	30.0	17.1	9.6	5.3
DET	8-2	0.573	83.5	98.4	56.2	24.5	10.7	4.7
JAX	7-3	0.552	59.2	87.9	45.8	19.4	8.0	3.3
HOU	6-4	0.558	35.4	70.8	34.8	14.9	6.3	2.6
MIN	6-5	0.545	15.5	80.0	35.8	14.6	6.0	2.5
NO	5-5	0.534	59.2	67.1	26.9	10.8	4.4	1.7
SEA	6-4	0.496	7.5	63.2	24.3	9.0	3.3	1.2
IND	5-5	0.489	5.3	32.8	12.6	4.5	1.6	0.6
GB	4-6	0.500	0.9	27.3	10.4	3.8	1.4	0.5
TB	4-6	0.482	21.1	30.7	10.6	3.8	1.4	0.5
PIT	6-4	0.431	4.1	41.3	14.0	4.3	1.3	0.4
LAC	4-6	0.536	3.2	11.9	5.1	2.1	0.9	0.3
ATL	4-6	0.441	19.6	24.1	7.3	2.3	0.8	0.2
CIN	5-5	0.452	0.2	11.1	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
LAR	4-6	0.448	0.6	10.8	3.5	1.2	0.4	0.1
DEN	5-5	0.411	1.7	11.0	3.4	1.0	0.3	0.1
LV	5-6	0.409	2.0	4.6	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
NYJ	4-6	0.375	0.6	1.7	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	3-7	0.399	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
WSH	4-7	0.383	0.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	3-8	0.399	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	3-8	0.260	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-9	0.332	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-8	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-9	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco

2023-11-20

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

Baltimore was idle after their win Thursday, and San Francisco won again. Dallas, however, is stalking closely behind. We now have two NFC teams at 99% playoff chances, but none over 99.9% yet. And, while there have been no official eliminations, my simulation shows Washington and Chicago joining New York, Arizona, and Carolina as never winning the NFC #1 spot, with New England the only team eliminated from that in the AFC so far.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	8-3	0.714	60.1	97.4	72.6	46.5	28.9	16.9
SF	7-3	0.703	91.9	99.1	76.0	48.0	29.0	16.6
DAL	7-3	0.696	26.6	98.1	69.3	42.1	24.9	14.0
KC	7-2	0.633	95.7	97.9	73.5	39.7	19.7	9.7
PHI	8-1	0.596	73.4	99.9	76.0	37.9	17.0	7.8
CLE	7-3	0.597	35.6	93.5	54.6	26.1	12.0	5.5
MIA	7-3	0.603	68.8	88.9	50.1	24.2	11.4	5.3
BUF	6-5	0.684	30.5	50.4	29.8	16.9	9.5	5.2
DET	8-2	0.573	83.5	98.4	57.9	25.8	11.2	4.9
JAX	7-3	0.552	59.2	87.9	44.7	18.7	7.7	3.2
HOU	6-4	0.558	35.4	70.7	34.5	14.6	6.2	2.6
MIN	6-5	0.545	15.5	80.0	35.9	14.8	6.1	2.5
NO	5-5	0.534	59.2	67.1	27.4	11.0	4.5	1.8
SEA	6-4	0.496	7.5	63.4	24.8	9.1	3.4	1.2
IND	5-5	0.489	5.3	32.8	12.5	4.5	1.6	0.6
GB	4-6	0.500	0.9	27.2	10.4	3.8	1.4	0.5
TB	4-6	0.482	21.1	30.6	10.8	3.8	1.4	0.5
PIT	6-4	0.431	4.1	41.3	13.8	4.2	1.3	0.4
LAC	4-6	0.537	1.9	11.3	4.8	2.0	0.8	0.3
ATL	4-6	0.441	19.6	24.0	7.5	2.4	0.8	0.2
CIN	5-5	0.452	0.2	11.0	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
LAR	4-6	0.448	0.6	10.8	3.5	1.1	0.4	0.1
DEN	5-5	0.411	1.1	10.7	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.1
LV	5-6	0.409	1.2	4.0	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
NYJ	4-6	0.375	0.6	1.7	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	3-7	0.399	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
WSH	4-7	0.383	0.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	3-8	0.399	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	3-8	0.260	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-9	0.331	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-9	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-8	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco

2023-11-19

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

The Errors:
None, because I'm still catching up.

The Top:
Georgia is now #1, and former #1 Ohio State fell down to #3. James Madison finally lost too, eliminating the controversy of them not being allowed in the major bowls this year.

The Home Team:
Missouri won again and rose one spot up to #12. I don't think they'll have any shot at a top 4 finish, but eventually there will be 12 playoff spots.

The Bottom:
Just like last week, Kent State lost again to stay #133.

Winless and Lossless:
As I mentioned before, James Madison lost their first game, so now there are still 6 undefeated teams, all 11-0, and no winless teams.

1	Georgia	11-0
2	Washington	11-0
3	Ohio State	11-0
4	Florida State	11-0
5	Michigan	11-0
6	Alabama	10-1
7	Texas	10-1
8	Liberty	11-0
9	Oregon	10-1
10	Louisville	10-1
11	James Madison	10-1
12	Missouri	9-2
13	Penn State	9-2
14	Ole Miss	9-2
15	Tulane	10-1
16	Oklahoma	9-2
17	Toledo	10-1
18	Iowa	9-2
19	Troy	9-2
20	UNLV	9-2
21	LSU	8-3
22	Kansas State	8-3
23	Notre Dame	8-3
24	Oklahoma State	8-3
25	Oregon State	8-3
26	Arizona	8-3
27	SMU	9-2
28	NC State	8-3
29	North Carolina	8-3
30	Miami (OH)	9-2
31	Memphis	8-3
32	New Mexico State	9-3
33	Tennessee	7-4
34	Utah	7-4
35	Air Force	8-3
36	Clemson	7-4
37	Wyoming	7-4
38	Kansas	7-4
39	Fresno State	8-3
40	Coastal Carolina	7-4
41	Jacksonville State	8-3
42	UCLA	7-4
43	USC	7-5
44	UT San Antonio	8-3
45	West Virginia	7-4
46	Texas A&M	7-4
47	Ohio	8-3
48	Appalachian State	7-4
49	Duke	6-5
50	Iowa State	6-5
51	Miami	6-5
52	Texas Tech	6-5
53	Georgia Tech	6-5
54	Auburn	6-5
55	Boise State	6-5
56	Georgia State	6-5
57	Rutgers	6-5
58	Northwestern	6-5
59	Bowling Green	6-5
60	San José State	6-5
61	Kentucky	6-5
62	Western Kentucky	6-5
63	Maryland	6-5
64	South Alabama	6-5
65	Wisconsin	6-5
66	Boston College	6-5
67	Arkansas State	6-5
68	South Carolina	5-6
69	Texas State	6-5
70	Georgia Southern	6-5
71	California	5-6
72	Marshall	5-6
73	TCU	5-6
74	UCF	5-6
75	Minnesota	5-6
76	Illinois	5-6
77	Virginia Tech	5-6
78	BYU	5-6
79	Mississippi State	5-6
80	Syracuse	5-6
81	Army	5-6
82	Florida	5-6
83	Old Dominion	5-6
84	Washington State	5-6
85	South Florida	5-6
86	Utah State	5-6
87	Nebraska	5-6
88	Michigan State	4-7
89	Colorado State	5-6
90	Navy	5-5
91	Louisiana	5-6
92	Northern Illinois	5-6
93	Rice	5-6
94	Central Michigan	5-6
95	Wake Forest	4-7
96	Colorado	4-7
97	Eastern Michigan	5-6
98	Arkansas	4-7
99	Houston	4-7
100	New Mexico	4-7
101	Middle Tennessee	4-7
102	Western Michigan	4-7
103	Virginia	3-8
104	Hawai'i	4-8
105	UAB	4-7
106	Arizona State	3-8
107	Stanford	3-8
108	North Texas	4-7
109	Florida Atlantic	4-7
110	Purdue	3-8
111	Ball State	4-7
112	UMass	3-8
113	Pittsburgh	3-8
114	Indiana	3-8
115	Southern Mississippi	3-8
116	Baylor	3-8
117	Cincinnati	3-8
118	Florida International	4-7
119	UTEP	3-8
120	Buffalo	3-8
121	San Diego State	3-8
122	Tulsa	3-8
123	Charlotte	3-8
124	Vanderbilt	2-9
125	Louisiana Monroe	2-9
126	Temple	3-8
127	East Carolina	2-9
128	Louisiana Tech	3-9
129	Nevada	2-9
130	Connecticut	2-9
131	Sam Houston State	2-9
132	Akron	2-9
133	Kent State	1-10

2023 History and #1s
Week 1 Jacksonville State and San Diego State
Week 2 Notre Dame
Week 3 Notre Dame
Week 4 Penn State
Week 5 Texas
Week 6 Oklahoma
Week 7 Michigan
Week 8 Michigan
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Ohio State
Week 11 Ohio State

2023-11-17

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Baltimore over San Francisco

We finally had an important game on a Thursday or Monday; it seems like those days almost never have any meaningful movement. Baltimore beat Cincinnati to start Week 11. While Cincinnati was only 5-4, a division win is always extra helpful for tiebreaker purposes.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	8-3	0.715	66.3	98.1	76.4	50.6	32.2	19.7
SF	6-3	0.681	81.9	97.0	69.3	42.8	25.6	14.2
KC	7-2	0.633	93.3	97.7	76.6	43.4	21.9	11.4
DAL	6-3	0.664	20.1	94.7	62.2	36.2	20.7	11.1
PHI	8-1	0.596	79.9	99.9	79.2	40.9	19.7	9.1
CLE	6-3	0.587	23.9	87.2	50.3	23.9	11.0	5.2
DET	7-2	0.566	70.4	96.2	54.3	25.0	11.3	4.9
MIA	6-3	0.589	66.4	81.1	45.6	21.7	10.1	4.8
BUF	5-5	0.641	28.2	41.6	23.5	12.4	6.5	3.4
MIN	6-4	0.547	28.9	87.4	42.4	18.5	8.0	3.3
HOU	5-4	0.547	38.2	63.2	31.6	13.3	5.6	2.4
JAX	6-3	0.512	49.6	73.5	34.6	13.5	5.2	2.1
NO	5-5	0.534	53.0	62.1	27.0	11.4	4.9	2.0
SEA	6-3	0.498	17.6	77.9	33.1	12.9	5.0	1.9
TB	4-5	0.511	30.7	41.7	17.2	6.9	2.8	1.1
PIT	6-3	0.441	9.6	58.5	22.4	7.2	2.3	0.8
LAC	4-5	0.541	4.0	22.2	10.1	4.2	1.8	0.8
IND	5-5	0.489	10.3	34.3	14.0	5.0	1.9	0.7
GB	3-6	0.494	0.6	13.4	5.3	2.0	0.8	0.3
ATL	4-6	0.441	16.2	19.3	6.5	2.2	0.7	0.2
CIN	5-5	0.452	0.2	12.6	4.5	1.5	0.5	0.2
NYJ	4-5	0.432	5.3	9.0	3.2	1.0	0.3	0.1
LV	5-5	0.425	2.1	10.0	3.4	1.1	0.3	0.1
LAR	3-6	0.447	0.5	5.9	2.1	0.7	0.2	0.1
DEN	4-5	0.412	0.5	6.9	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1
TEN	3-6	0.440	1.9	4.0	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0
WSH	4-6	0.402	0.0	2.9	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	3-7	0.406	0.1	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-8	0.344	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-8	0.343	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-8	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.255	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco

2023-11-14

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 10, Final

Baltimore over San Francisco

Buffalo keeps sliding, and lost at home to Denver on Monday. Overall, the projection stays the same. And, while no one is eliminated from the playoffs yet, I now show the 4 8-loss teams (Carolina, Arizona, New England, and the New York Giants) with no chance at their conference #1 seed.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	7-3	0.695	54.8	94.5	69.8	44.6	27.5	16.2
SF	6-3	0.681	82.1	97.1	69.5	42.9	25.7	14.6
KC	7-2	0.633	93.1	97.6	77.6	44.1	23.1	12.0
DAL	6-3	0.664	20.1	94.7	62.2	36.2	20.7	11.4
PHI	8-1	0.596	79.9	99.9	79.2	40.9	19.6	9.4
CLE	6-3	0.587	30.9	86.3	51.1	24.9	11.8	5.6
MIA	6-3	0.589	66.8	81.3	46.1	22.5	10.7	5.1
DET	7-2	0.566	70.7	96.1	54.2	24.9	11.3	5.1
BUF	5-5	0.641	28.0	41.0	23.4	12.6	6.7	3.6
MIN	6-4	0.547	28.6	87.0	42.1	18.4	8.0	3.4
HOU	5-4	0.547	38.4	62.9	31.9	13.9	6.0	2.6
JAX	6-3	0.512	49.5	72.8	34.7	13.9	5.5	2.2
NO	5-5	0.534	53.0	62.2	27.1	11.4	4.9	2.0
SEA	6-3	0.498	17.3	77.8	33.1	12.9	5.0	1.9
TB	4-5	0.511	30.7	41.7	17.2	6.9	2.8	1.1
LAC	4-5	0.541	4.2	22.5	10.4	4.5	2.0	0.8
PIT	6-3	0.441	12.1	56.5	22.1	7.4	2.5	0.8
IND	5-5	0.489	10.1	33.1	13.7	5.1	1.9	0.7
CIN	5-4	0.479	2.3	21.7	8.8	3.2	1.2	0.4
GB	3-6	0.494	0.6	13.4	5.3	2.0	0.8	0.3
ATL	4-6	0.441	16.2	19.3	6.5	2.2	0.8	0.2
LV	5-5	0.425	2.2	10.0	3.5	1.1	0.4	0.1
NYJ	4-5	0.432	5.3	8.9	3.2	1.1	0.4	0.1
LAR	3-6	0.447	0.5	6.0	2.1	0.7	0.3	0.1
DEN	4-5	0.412	0.5	6.8	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1
TEN	3-6	0.440	2.0	4.0	1.4	0.5	0.2	0.1
WSH	4-6	0.403	0.0	3.0	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	3-7	0.406	0.1	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-8	0.344	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-8	0.343	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-8	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.255	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco

2023-11-13

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

San Francisco had a big win over Jacksonville, 34-3, which raised their strength up quite a bit and put them back on top of the NFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	7-3	0.695	54.8	94.0	69.0	43.8	26.9	15.8
SF	6-3	0.681	82.1	97.1	69.5	42.9	25.7	14.6
KC	7-2	0.633	93.3	97.5	76.7	43.2	22.5	11.7
DAL	6-3	0.664	20.1	94.7	62.2	36.2	20.7	11.3
PHI	8-1	0.596	79.9	99.9	79.2	40.9	19.6	9.3
CLE	6-3	0.587	30.9	85.5	50.3	24.3	11.4	5.4
BUF	5-4	0.642	40.0	59.5	34.9	18.9	10.1	5.3
DET	7-2	0.566	70.7	96.2	54.2	24.9	11.3	5.0
MIA	6-3	0.589	55.9	79.0	44.1	21.4	10.1	4.8
MIN	6-4	0.547	28.6	87.0	42.1	18.4	8.0	3.4
HOU	5-4	0.547	38.4	61.6	30.9	13.4	5.7	2.5
JAX	6-3	0.512	49.5	71.6	33.7	13.4	5.3	2.1
NO	5-5	0.534	53.0	62.1	27.1	11.4	4.9	2.0
SEA	6-3	0.498	17.3	77.8	33.1	12.9	5.0	1.9
TB	4-5	0.511	30.8	41.7	17.2	6.9	2.8	1.1
PIT	6-3	0.441	12.1	54.7	21.2	7.0	2.3	0.8
LAC	4-5	0.541	4.3	21.1	9.7	4.2	1.8	0.8
IND	5-5	0.489	10.1	31.5	12.9	4.8	1.8	0.7
CIN	5-4	0.479	2.3	20.5	8.3	3.0	1.1	0.4
GB	3-6	0.494	0.6	13.4	5.3	2.0	0.8	0.3
ATL	4-6	0.441	16.2	19.3	6.5	2.2	0.8	0.2
LV	5-5	0.425	2.2	9.3	3.2	1.0	0.3	0.1
NYJ	4-5	0.432	4.0	7.8	2.8	0.9	0.3	0.1
LAR	3-6	0.447	0.5	6.0	2.1	0.7	0.3	0.1
TEN	3-6	0.440	2.0	3.7	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
WSH	4-6	0.403	0.0	2.9	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
DEN	3-5	0.410	0.2	2.7	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	3-7	0.406	0.1	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-8	0.344	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-8	0.343	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-8	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.255	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia

2023-11-12

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 11

The Errors:
None, because I'm still catching up.

The Top:
Ohio State wins again to stay #1. We had a little shuffling around despite the top teams winning, with James Madison dropping down to #6 and out of the problematic top 4, if the CFP committee were to pay any attention to me that is.

The Home Team:
Missouri won against Tennessee, but only gained 2 spots. In the official rankings, Tennessee was one ahead of Missouri before the weekend, #13 and #14, but in mine it was a #15 over #25.

The Bottom:
Kent State lost again and holds strong at #133.

Winless and Lossless:
There are still 7 undefeated teams, all 10-0, and no winless teams.

1	Ohio State	10-0
2	Georgia	10-0
3	Washington	10-0
4	Florida State	10-0
5	Michigan	10-0
6	James Madison	10-0
7	Alabama	9-1
8	Liberty	10-0
9	Texas	9-1
10	Oregon	9-1
11	Louisville	9-1
12	Ole Miss	8-2
13	Missouri	8-2
14	Penn State	8-2
15	Tulane	9-1
16	Oklahoma	8-2
17	Toledo	9-1
18	Iowa	8-2
19	Troy	8-2
20	Oregon State	8-2
21	North Carolina	8-2
22	Memphis	8-2
23	UNLV	8-2
24	LSU	7-3
25	Fresno State	8-2
26	Notre Dame	7-3
27	Utah	7-3
28	Oklahoma State	7-3
29	Kansas State	7-3
30	Kansas	7-3
31	Air Force	8-2
32	Coastal Carolina	7-3
33	Miami (OH)	8-2
34	Tennessee	7-3
35	USC	7-4
36	Arizona	7-3
37	NC State	7-3
38	SMU	8-2
39	Duke	6-4
40	New Mexico State	8-3
41	Jacksonville State	7-3
42	Iowa State	6-4
43	Clemson	6-4
44	Wyoming	6-4
45	Ohio	7-3
46	Miami	6-4
47	UT San Antonio	7-3
48	West Virginia	6-4
49	UCLA	6-4
50	Georgia State	6-4
51	Texas A&M	6-4
52	Auburn	6-4
53	Rutgers	6-4
54	Kentucky	6-4
55	Boston College	6-4
56	Appalachian State	6-4
57	Bowling Green	6-4
58	Maryland	6-4
59	Texas State	6-4
60	Georgia Southern	6-4
61	Marshall	5-5
62	Texas Tech	5-5
63	Georgia Tech	5-5
64	Northwestern	5-5
65	San José State	5-5
66	Boise State	5-5
67	UCF	5-5
68	Western Kentucky	5-5
69	Minnesota	5-5
70	Illinois	5-5
71	Virginia Tech	5-5
72	Wisconsin	5-5
73	Syracuse	5-5
74	South Alabama	5-5
75	BYU	5-5
76	Florida	5-5
77	Utah State	5-5
78	Arkansas State	5-5
79	Nebraska	5-5
80	South Carolina	4-6
81	South Florida	5-5
82	California	4-6
83	TCU	4-6
84	Louisiana	5-5
85	Colorado	4-6
86	Central Michigan	5-5
87	Mississippi State	4-6
88	Old Dominion	4-6
89	Wake Forest	4-6
90	Army	4-6
91	Western Michigan	4-6
92	Washington State	4-6
93	Houston	4-6
94	Michigan State	3-7
95	Navy	4-5
96	Colorado State	4-6
97	Hawai'i	4-7
98	Rice	4-6
99	Stanford	3-7
100	Purdue	3-7
101	Northern Illinois	4-6
102	Arizona State	3-7
103	Eastern Michigan	4-6
104	Florida Atlantic	4-6
105	Arkansas	3-7
106	Indiana	3-7
107	Baylor	3-7
108	UMass	3-7
109	Middle Tennessee	3-7
110	Southern Mississippi	3-7
111	UAB	3-7
112	Florida International	4-6
113	Cincinnati	3-7
114	UTEP	3-7
115	Virginia	2-8
116	Ball State	3-7
117	San Diego State	3-7
118	Buffalo	3-7
119	North Texas	3-7
120	New Mexico	3-7
121	Tulsa	3-7
122	Charlotte	3-7
123	Temple	3-7
124	East Carolina	2-8
125	Vanderbilt	2-9
126	Pittsburgh	2-8
127	Nevada	2-8
128	Louisiana Tech	3-8
129	Louisiana Monroe	2-8
130	Sam Houston State	2-8
131	Connecticut	1-9
132	Akron	2-8
133	Kent State	1-9

2023-11-10

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 10, Thursday

Baltimore over Philadelphia

Chicago beat Carolina Thursday, which had basically no effect on the NFC as a whole. The only semi-interesting thing is that my simulations showed Arizona never winning the #1 seed in even a single simulation for the last few game days, but now they do, and Carolina doesn't. I'm not convinced it's mathematically impossible, but I think they'd have to flip some tiebreakers in addition to winning the rest of their games.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	7-2	0.698	77.9	97.1	76.5	48.6	29.7	18.5
KC	7-2	0.633	90.8	97.5	73.3	40.7	20.7	11.4
PHI	8-1	0.596	85.9	99.9	84.2	45.8	23.7	11.1
SF	5-3	0.635	75.2	92.2	60.7	35.2	19.9	10.1
DAL	5-3	0.624	14.0	89.0	54.7	30.4	16.8	8.4
DET	6-2	0.565	71.6	93.3	53.9	26.4	12.7	5.6
BUF	5-4	0.642	38.5	59.9	34.8	18.4	9.6	5.4
MIA	6-3	0.589	54.0	78.8	43.4	20.5	9.6	4.8
JAX	6-2	0.571	71.4	86.3	49.0	22.3	9.9	4.8
CLE	5-3	0.587	13.8	71.4	37.9	17.7	8.3	4.2
NO	5-4	0.551	66.4	77.7	39.1	18.2	8.5	3.6
MIN	5-4	0.531	25.2	74.2	35.6	15.9	7.1	2.9
SEA	5-3	0.492	23.4	68.0	30.3	12.4	5.1	1.9
HOU	4-4	0.543	20.6	45.5	21.3	8.9	3.7	1.7
LAC	4-4	0.549	7.8	32.7	15.2	6.5	2.8	1.3
GB	3-5	0.502	3.0	27.4	11.9	4.9	2.1	0.8
CIN	5-3	0.485	3.0	32.0	12.9	4.7	1.7	0.7
TB	3-5	0.481	12.7	25.7	10.6	4.2	1.7	0.6
ATL	4-5	0.444	21.0	31.9	11.9	4.3	1.6	0.5
PIT	5-3	0.432	5.4	41.1	14.4	4.5	1.4	0.5
IND	4-5	0.484	4.6	24.5	9.5	3.4	1.2	0.5
NYJ	4-4	0.443	7.4	16.4	6.0	1.9	0.6	0.2
TEN	3-5	0.473	3.4	8.0	3.1	1.1	0.4	0.1
WSH	4-5	0.407	0.0	11.0	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
LAR	3-6	0.448	1.4	7.1	2.7	1.0	0.4	0.1
LV	4-5	0.420	1.2	5.7	1.9	0.6	0.2	0.1
DEN	3-5	0.410	0.2	2.8	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	3-7	0.407	0.3	2.2	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
NE	2-7	0.328	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-7	0.286	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-8	0.344	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	1-8	0.343	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia

2023-11-07

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 9, Final

Baltimore over Philadelphia

Monday's win by the LA Chargers over the New York Jets didn't move the needle for Baltimore at all, and the projection stands.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	7-2	0.698	77.9	97.1	76.5	48.6	29.8	18.5
KC	7-2	0.633	90.8	97.5	73.3	40.7	20.7	11.4
PHI	8-1	0.596	86.0	99.9	84.2	45.8	23.7	11.1
SF	5-3	0.635	75.2	92.3	60.7	35.2	19.9	10.2
DAL	5-3	0.624	14.0	89.0	54.6	30.3	16.8	8.4
DET	6-2	0.565	71.7	93.5	54.0	26.4	12.7	5.6
BUF	5-4	0.642	38.6	59.9	34.9	18.4	9.7	5.4
MIA	6-3	0.589	54.0	78.9	43.4	20.6	9.6	4.8
JAX	6-2	0.572	71.2	86.1	48.9	22.2	9.8	4.8
CLE	5-3	0.587	13.8	71.5	37.9	17.8	8.3	4.2
NO	5-4	0.551	66.4	77.6	39.0	18.2	8.5	3.6
MIN	5-4	0.531	25.2	74.5	35.8	15.9	7.1	2.9
SEA	5-3	0.492	23.4	68.4	30.4	12.4	5.1	1.9
HOU	4-4	0.543	20.7	45.5	21.3	8.9	3.7	1.7
LAC	4-4	0.549	7.8	32.7	15.2	6.5	2.8	1.3
GB	3-5	0.502	3.0	27.3	11.9	4.9	2.1	0.8
CIN	5-3	0.485	3.0	32.0	12.9	4.6	1.7	0.7
TB	3-5	0.481	12.5	25.4	10.4	4.1	1.7	0.6
ATL	4-5	0.444	20.9	31.9	11.9	4.3	1.6	0.5
PIT	5-3	0.431	5.4	41.1	14.4	4.5	1.4	0.5
IND	4-5	0.484	4.7	24.6	9.5	3.4	1.2	0.5
NYJ	4-4	0.443	7.4	16.4	6.0	1.9	0.6	0.2
TEN	3-5	0.473	3.4	8.0	3.1	1.1	0.4	0.1
WSH	4-5	0.407	0.0	11.1	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
LAR	3-6	0.447	1.4	7.2	2.7	1.0	0.4	0.1
LV	4-5	0.420	1.2	5.7	1.9	0.6	0.2	0.1
DEN	3-5	0.410	0.2	2.8	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	2-7	0.406	0.2	1.4	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0
CAR	1-7	0.357	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-7	0.328	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-7	0.286	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	1-8	0.343	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia

2023-11-06

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 9, Sunday

Baltimore over Philadelphia

Dallas loses to Philadelphia, which is a huge swing for the NFC East division title, and that puts Philadelphia on top of the NFC overall for the first time this year. Philadelphia's 99.9% playoff chances are rounded up here, so I'm not marking them officially as the first team to 99.9%. It's more like 99.893%. Yes, I'd be that professor who won't round your grade.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	7-2	0.698	78.6	97.4	76.9	49.0	30.1	18.7
KC	7-2	0.633	94.5	98.1	74.2	41.4	21.1	11.6
PHI	8-1	0.596	86.0	99.9	84.2	45.7	23.6	11.1
SF	5-3	0.635	75.2	92.3	60.7	35.2	19.9	10.2
DAL	5-3	0.624	14.0	89.0	54.6	30.3	16.8	8.4
DET	6-2	0.565	72.1	93.7	54.3	26.5	12.8	5.6
BUF	5-4	0.642	35.4	58.8	34.3	18.1	9.5	5.3
JAX	6-2	0.572	71.7	86.3	49.0	22.4	9.9	4.8
MIA	6-3	0.589	48.3	75.6	41.5	19.6	9.1	4.6
CLE	5-3	0.587	13.1	70.8	37.6	17.6	8.2	4.2
NO	5-4	0.551	66.8	77.8	39.0	18.2	8.5	3.6
MIN	5-4	0.531	24.8	74.5	35.8	15.9	7.1	2.9
SEA	5-3	0.492	23.4	68.4	30.4	12.4	5.1	1.9
HOU	4-4	0.543	20.2	44.7	21.0	8.8	3.7	1.7
NYJ	4-3	0.493	16.4	35.6	14.9	5.6	2.1	0.9
GB	3-5	0.502	3.0	28.1	12.2	5.0	2.1	0.8
CIN	5-3	0.485	3.0	32.3	13.1	4.7	1.7	0.7
TB	3-5	0.481	12.6	25.5	10.5	4.1	1.7	0.6
PIT	5-3	0.431	5.3	41.3	14.5	4.6	1.5	0.5
IND	4-5	0.484	4.7	24.7	9.6	3.4	1.3	0.5
ATL	4-5	0.444	20.4	31.0	11.5	4.2	1.5	0.5
LAC	3-4	0.511	3.9	17.2	7.2	2.8	1.1	0.5
TEN	3-5	0.473	3.4	8.0	3.1	1.1	0.4	0.1
LAR	3-6	0.447	1.4	7.2	2.7	1.0	0.4	0.1
WSH	4-5	0.407	0.0	10.6	3.6	1.2	0.4	0.1
LV	4-5	0.420	1.4	5.9	1.9	0.6	0.2	0.1
DEN	3-5	0.410	0.3	3.1	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	2-7	0.406	0.2	1.4	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0
CAR	1-7	0.357	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-7	0.328	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-7	0.285	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	1-8	0.343	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas

2023-11-05

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 10

The Errors:
None, because to be honest I pulled this data very shortly after the week 9 post was made very late.

The Top:
Ohio State wins and holds their #1 spot, but the top 6 are all 9-0. James Madison rises all the way to #2, even though they are ineligible for the Playoff, and all or most bowls depending on where I read the details.

The Home Team:
Missouri lost, but only lost 1 position and fell to #15, because it was a high-quality loss, to the other #2 team, Georgia.

The Bottom:
Sam Houston State got out of the gutter with a win, and Kent State is now the worst team out there.

Winless and Lossless:
There are now 7 undefeated teams, down from 8, thanks to Air Force's loss to Army. Sam Houston State was the only winless team, so there are none remaining.

1	Ohio State	9-0
T-2	James Madison	9-0
T-2	Georgia	9-0
4	Washington	9-0
5	Florida State	9-0
6	Michigan	9-0
7	Texas	8-1
8	Liberty	9-0
9	Ole Miss	8-1
10	Alabama	8-1
11	Penn State	8-1
12	Louisville	8-1
13	Oregon	8-1
14	Tulane	8-1
15	Missouri	7-2
16	Fresno State	8-1
17	Oklahoma	7-2
18	Notre Dame	7-3
19	Toledo	8-1
20	Oklahoma State	7-2
21	Troy	7-2
22	Kansas	7-2
23	Utah	7-2
24	Air Force	8-1
25	Tennessee	7-2
26	Oregon State	7-2
27	Iowa	7-2
28	USC	7-3
29	Memphis	7-2
30	North Carolina	7-2
31	Duke	6-3
32	Kansas State	6-3
33	LSU	6-3
34	UNLV	7-2
35	UCLA	6-3
36	Miami (OH)	7-2
37	Coastal Carolina	6-3
38	Arizona	6-3
39	Jacksonville State	7-3
40	Wyoming	6-3
41	SMU	7-2
42	Georgia State	6-3
43	NC State	6-3
44	West Virginia	6-3
45	Miami	6-3
46	Boston College	6-3
47	Rutgers	6-3
48	Kentucky	6-3
49	Georgia Southern	6-3
50	Texas State	6-3
51	New Mexico State	7-3
52	Clemson	5-4
53	Georgia Tech	5-4
54	Iowa State	5-4
55	Ohio	6-3
56	UT San Antonio	6-3
57	Minnesota	5-4
58	Texas A&M	5-4
59	Auburn	5-4
T-60	Bowling Green	5-4
T-60	Wisconsin	5-4
62	Western Kentucky	5-4
63	Maryland	5-4
64	Florida	5-4
65	BYU	5-4
66	Arkansas State	5-4
67	Nebraska	5-4
68	Appalachian State	5-4
69	Louisiana	5-4
70	Illinois	4-5
71	Texas Tech	4-5
72	Northwestern	4-5
73	Boise State	4-5
74	Central Michigan	5-4
75	Marshall	4-5
76	TCU	4-5
77	Colorado	4-5
78	San José State	4-5
79	South Alabama	4-5
80	UCF	4-5
81	Mississippi State	4-5
82	Utah State	4-5
83	Syracuse	4-5
84	Wake Forest	4-5
85	Virginia Tech	4-5
86	Houston	4-5
87	Washington State	4-5
88	South Florida	4-5
89	South Carolina	3-6
90	Northern Illinois	4-5
91	Old Dominion	4-5
92	California	3-6
93	Michigan State	3-6
94	Florida Atlantic	4-5
95	Rice	4-5
96	Stanford	3-6
97	Indiana	3-6
98	Arkansas	3-6
99	Eastern Michigan	4-5
100	UAB	3-6
101	Florida International	4-5
102	Baylor	3-6
103	Navy	3-5
104	San Diego State	3-6
105	Buffalo	3-6
106	Army	3-6
107	Western Michigan	3-6
108	Colorado State	3-6
109	UMass	3-7
110	Virginia	2-7
111	North Texas	3-6
112	UTEP	3-7
113	Tulsa	3-6
114	New Mexico	3-6
115	Purdue	2-7
116	Arizona State	2-7
117	Charlotte	3-6
118	Hawai'i	3-7
119	Temple	3-6
120	Louisiana Tech	3-7
121	Nevada	2-7
122	Vanderbilt	2-8
123	Middle Tennessee	2-7
124	Pittsburgh	2-7
125	Southern Mississippi	2-7
126	Cincinnati	2-7
127	Ball State	2-7
128	Louisiana Monroe	2-7
129	Akron	2-7
130	Connecticut	1-8
131	East Carolina	1-8
132	Sam Houston State	1-8
133	Kent State	1-8

2023 History and #1s
Week 1 Jacksonville State and San Diego State
Week 2 Notre Dame
Week 3 Notre Dame
Week 4 Penn State
Week 5 Texas
Week 6 Oklahoma
Week 7 Michigan
Week 8 Michigan
Week 9 Ohio State

2023-11-03

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 9, Thursday

Baltimore over Dallas

Pittsburgh beat Tennessee on Thursday, which had little effect on the AFC as a whole, and the projection remains the same.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	6-2	0.650	72.8	93.2	67.3	39.4	22.4	12.7
DAL	5-2	0.629	37.8	92.5	62.8	35.6	19.9	10.5
KC	6-2	0.617	91.3	96.1	68.2	37.2	19.4	10.4
SF	5-3	0.635	59.1	89.8	58.9	33.9	19.2	10.3
PHI	7-1	0.587	62.2	99.1	72.6	37.9	19.2	9.3
BUF	5-3	0.646	39.5	77.6	49.0	27.6	15.5	8.7
MIA	6-2	0.593	49.2	86.7	53.6	27.2	13.5	6.9
DET	6-2	0.565	76.9	93.3	55.0	27.0	12.9	6.0
JAX	6-2	0.572	77.4	89.2	52.9	25.4	11.9	5.8
SEA	5-2	0.558	38.2	83.1	46.2	22.2	10.5	4.8
NO	4-4	0.536	48.4	62.5	29.7	13.4	6.0	2.6
MIN	4-4	0.527	21.0	60.9	28.6	12.6	5.6	2.4
CLE	4-3	0.531	12.1	53.4	25.3	10.9	4.7	2.1
HOU	3-4	0.543	16.3	39.9	19.0	8.4	3.7	1.7
NYJ	4-3	0.493	11.2	39.7	17.0	6.7	2.6	1.1
TB	3-4	0.483	20.9	34.9	14.3	5.7	2.3	0.9
ATL	4-4	0.447	30.1	42.8	16.0	5.8	2.1	0.7
LAC	3-4	0.511	7.0	22.1	9.6	4.0	1.6	0.7
PIT	5-3	0.431	11.2	45.8	16.7	5.6	1.9	0.7
CIN	4-3	0.471	3.9	22.0	8.8	3.3	1.2	0.5
LAR	3-5	0.483	2.8	17.7	7.2	2.9	1.2	0.4
IND	3-5	0.462	2.8	18.0	6.8	2.4	0.9	0.3
GB	2-5	0.467	1.6	12.4	4.9	1.9	0.7	0.3
TEN	3-5	0.473	3.5	8.2	3.3	1.2	0.5	0.2
WSH	3-5	0.406	0.1	5.8	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.1
DEN	3-5	0.410	0.6	4.1	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
CHI	2-6	0.419	0.5	3.4	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
LV	3-5	0.377	1.1	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
CAR	1-6	0.380	0.6	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	2-6	0.339	0.0	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-6	0.321	0.0	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
ARI	1-7	0.390	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas