Tenets of Wilson: 2017-11

2017-11-28

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 12, Final

Philadelphia over New England

Baltimore and Houston aren't very highly rated, so their game didn't affect things much, except for themselves. Baltimore went from 60% to 76%, while Houston fell from 10% to about 2.6%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	10-1	0.747	99.99	100.00	97.15	60.76	36.58	22.16
NE	9-2	0.676	97.92	99.85	95.15	54.69	29.25	14.03
JAC	7-4	0.707	78.47	98.13	77.85	45.35	26.61	13.73
LAR	8-3	0.707	80.78	94.90	65.63	34.83	18.18	10.13
PIT	9-2	0.640	94.59	99.76	90.16	46.90	22.52	9.91
MIN	9-2	0.656	97.64	99.27	85.77	42.35	18.64	9.31
NO	8-3	0.672	67.03	93.89	58.42	27.79	13.23	6.86
BAL	6-5	0.614	5.36	75.92	40.41	18.04	8.24	3.41
CAR	8-3	0.590	25.14	79.94	38.32	14.62	5.68	2.45
KC	6-5	0.571	68.29	75.02	38.51	15.50	6.33	2.36
SEA	7-4	0.612	19.10	45.85	20.73	8.24	3.46	1.57
LAC	5-6	0.610	25.11	36.14	18.85	8.32	3.75	1.54
ATL	7-4	0.571	7.83	49.08	20.87	7.31	2.78	1.14
DET	6-5	0.554	2.21	27.16	10.33	3.41	1.26	0.50
TEN	7-4	0.446	21.05	61.42	21.24	6.23	1.86	0.49
BUF	6-5	0.425	2.08	35.88	11.68	3.20	0.91	0.23
OAK	5-6	0.426	6.58	8.45	2.94	0.80	0.22	0.06
CIN	5-6	0.461	0.05	5.47	1.90	0.57	0.18	0.05
HOU	4-7	0.496	0.48	2.59	0.95	0.32	0.11	0.03
WAS	5-6	0.466	-	4.25	1.24	0.32	0.09	0.03
GB	5-6	0.441	0.15	2.95	0.81	0.19	0.05	0.02
DAL	5-6	0.457	0.01	2.03	0.57	0.15	0.04	0.01
NYJ	4-7	0.440	0.00	0.78	0.24	0.07	0.02	0.01
TB	4-7	0.419	0.00	0.23	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00
ARI	5-6	0.350	0.12	0.47	0.10	0.02	0.00	0.00
MIA	4-7	0.281	0.00	0.52	0.09	0.02	0.00	0.00
DEN	3-8	0.335	0.02	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
IND	3-8	0.306	0.00	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
CHI	3-8	0.335	-	0.00	0.00	-	-	-
SF	1-10	0.311	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-9	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-11	0.267	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England

2017-11-27

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 12, Sunday

Philadelphia over New England

Philadelphia earned 2 entries in the milestones below, crossing 99.99% chances of making the playoffs. I show 100 due to rounding, but out of the billion runs they made it just under 99.998% of the time. They're also the first team this year to top a 20% chance of being the champs. In the AFC, Jacksonville lost and New England took over the AFC lead.

We've finally got some official eliminations, with San Francisco, Cleveland, and the New York Giants completely out, and Washington and Chicago both eliminated from winning their divisions.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	10-1	0.747	99.99	100.00	97.15	60.76	36.59	22.20
NE	9-2	0.676	97.92	99.88	95.30	55.41	29.74	14.26
JAC	7-4	0.707	77.76	98.00	77.96	45.53	26.85	13.85
LAR	8-3	0.707	80.79	94.88	65.61	34.83	18.17	10.14
PIT	9-2	0.640	96.47	99.78	90.73	47.73	23.00	10.12
MIN	9-2	0.656	97.59	99.26	85.76	42.35	18.63	9.33
NO	8-3	0.673	67.03	93.87	58.41	27.79	13.23	6.87
KC	6-5	0.571	68.30	76.33	40.52	16.32	6.69	2.49
CAR	8-3	0.590	25.14	79.89	38.30	14.61	5.67	2.45
BAL	5-5	0.598	3.46	59.59	30.32	13.02	5.75	2.29
LAC	5-6	0.610	25.11	37.68	20.17	8.90	4.03	1.65
SEA	7-4	0.612	19.10	45.83	20.72	8.24	3.46	1.57
ATL	7-4	0.571	7.83	48.94	20.81	7.30	2.77	1.15
TEN	7-4	0.446	20.60	63.10	22.18	6.51	1.95	0.52
DET	6-5	0.554	2.26	27.45	10.45	3.44	1.28	0.51
BUF	6-5	0.425	2.08	38.52	12.88	3.52	1.00	0.25
HOU	4-6	0.509	1.64	10.35	4.14	1.43	0.52	0.16
OAK	5-6	0.425	6.58	8.84	3.19	0.87	0.24	0.06
CIN	5-6	0.461	0.07	6.23	2.17	0.65	0.21	0.06
WAS	5-6	0.466	-	4.24	1.24	0.32	0.09	0.03
GB	5-6	0.441	0.15	2.93	0.81	0.19	0.05	0.02
DAL	5-6	0.457	0.01	2.02	0.57	0.15	0.04	0.01
NYJ	4-7	0.440	0.00	0.97	0.31	0.09	0.03	0.01
TB	4-7	0.419	0.00	0.23	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00
ARI	5-6	0.350	0.12	0.46	0.10	0.02	0.00	0.00
MIA	4-7	0.281	0.00	0.62	0.12	0.02	0.00	0.00
DEN	3-8	0.335	0.02	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
IND	3-8	0.306	0.00	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
CHI	3-8	0.335	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	-
SF	1-10	0.311	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-9	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-11	0.267	-	-	-	-	-	-

2017-11-26

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

We've got some late-season chaos in the rankings. #1 Alabama lost to #10 Auburn, moving them to #4 and #7. Miami also lost, falling from #4 to #8. Clemson moved into a playoff position, up from #5 to #3. A lot of highly ranked teams will face off next week for their conference title, so there's still plenty of potential for change. I'll be interested to see what the committee does, because right now I think they've got Georgia and Alabama incorrectly out of the playoff. If Georgia beats Auburn, they'd almost have to go back in. Miami defeating Clemson would throw things up in the air, too, being #1 vs #7 in the real rankings, and #3 vs #8 in mine.

Missouri fell way behind Arkansas, then looked to be dominating them, and ultimately won the game by just a little, but they finished 7-5 and are supposedly likely to go to the Liberty Bowl.

It's not official yet, but I'd guess UTEP, who lost again, will hold on to the bottom position for the rest of the season, with a perfect 0-12 record.

1	Wisconsin	12-0
2	Georgia	11-1
3	Clemson	11-1
4	Alabama	11-1
5	UCF	11-0
6	Oklahoma	11-1
7	Auburn	10-2
8	Miami	10-1
9	USC	10-2
10	Penn State	10-2
11	Washington	10-2
12	Ohio State	10-2
13	Memphis	10-1
14	TCU	10-2
15	Toledo	10-2
16	San Diego State	10-2
17	Stanford	9-3
18	Michigan State	9-3
19	Washington State	9-3
20	Virginia Tech	9-3
21	LSU	9-3
22	Florida Atlantic	9-3
23	Notre Dame	8-4
24	Boise State	9-3
25	Northwestern	9-3
26	Oklahoma State	9-3
27	NC State	8-4
28	North Texas	9-3
29	South Carolina	8-4
30	South Florida	9-2
31	Mississippi State	8-4
32	Fresno State	9-3
33	Michigan	8-4
34	Troy	9-2
35	Louisville	8-4
36	Boston College	7-5
37	Iowa	7-5
38	Northern Illinois	8-4
39	Army	8-3
40	Navy	7-4
41	Oregon	7-5
42	Arizona State	7-5
43	Wake Forest	7-5
44	Texas A&M	7-5
45	Iowa State	7-5
46	Central Michigan	8-4
47	Kentucky	7-5
48	Ohio	8-4
49	SMU	7-5
50	Southern Mississippi	8-4
51	Houston	7-4
52	Arizona	7-5
53	Kansas State	7-5
54	West Virginia	7-5
55	Florida Intl	7-4
56	Missouri	7-5
57	UCLA	6-6
58	Akron	7-5
59	Marshall	7-5
60	UAB	8-4
61	Texas Tech	6-6
62	Ole Miss	6-6
63	Utah	6-6
64	Purdue	6-6
65	Duke	6-6
66	Wyoming	7-5
67	Virginia	6-6
68	Texas	6-6
69	Temple	6-6
70	Colorado State	7-5
71	Appalachian State	7-4
72	Georgia Tech	5-6
73	Arkansas State	7-3
74	Western Michigan	6-6
75	Florida State	5-6
76	Louisiana Tech	6-6
77	Buffalo	6-6
78	California	5-7
79	Tulane	5-7
80	UT San Antonio	6-5
81	Pittsburgh	5-7
82	Utah State	6-6
83	Georgia State	6-4
84	Vanderbilt	5-7
85	Middle Tennessee	6-6
86	Indiana	5-7
87	Minnesota	5-7
88	Syracuse	4-8
89	Colorado	5-7
90	Western Kentucky	6-6
91	Florida	4-7
92	Maryland	4-8
93	Air Force	5-7
94	Eastern Michigan	5-7
95	Miami (OH)	5-7
96	Nebraska	4-8
97	Arkansas	4-8
98	Old Dominion	5-7
99	Tennessee	4-8
100	Cincinnati	4-8
101	UNLV	5-7
102	New Mexico State	5-6
103	Rutgers	4-8
104	Louisiana	5-6
105	Louisiana Monroe	4-7
106	North Carolina	3-9
107	South Alabama	4-7
108	East Carolina	3-9
109	BYU	4-9
110	UMass	4-7
111	Connecticut	3-9
112	Nevada	3-9
113	New Mexico	3-9
114	Idaho	3-8
115	Hawai'i	3-9
116	Bowling Green	2-10
117	Tulsa	2-10
118	Kent State	2-10
119	Illinois	2-10
120	Georgia Southern	2-9
121	Ball State	2-10
122	Coastal Carolina	2-9
123	Oregon State	1-11
124	Baylor	1-11
125	Kansas	1-11
126	San Jose State	2-11
127	Charlotte	1-11
128	Rice	1-11
129	Texas State	2-10
130	UTEP	0-12

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Georgia
Week 10 Georgia
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama

2017-11-24

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 12, Thursday

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

3 games on Thanksgiving only involved one of the top teams, Minnesota, so nothing changed at the top. Dallas lost, pushing Philadelphia's division chances up to 99.95%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	7-3	0.711	91.40	99.55	87.27	53.69	32.36	17.68
PHI	9-1	0.706	99.95	99.98	93.69	54.58	30.46	17.10
NE	8-2	0.648	98.11	99.70	89.45	48.62	24.09	11.43
MIN	9-2	0.656	97.53	99.44	86.47	43.88	20.90	10.56
NO	8-2	0.677	77.54	97.59	70.27	36.31	18.54	9.80
PIT	8-2	0.638	95.05	99.71	83.10	42.63	20.82	9.65
LAR	7-3	0.694	76.86	89.58	60.09	31.63	16.92	9.27
KC	6-4	0.579	79.23	88.79	51.73	21.48	9.09	3.67
BAL	5-5	0.598	4.89	65.98	32.65	14.19	6.36	2.69
CAR	7-3	0.576	17.81	75.01	34.53	13.51	5.41	2.29
LAC	5-6	0.610	17.62	39.13	20.27	9.03	4.13	1.80
SEA	6-4	0.588	23.06	44.40	20.06	8.06	3.35	1.46
ATL	6-4	0.544	4.59	37.55	15.02	5.33	1.99	0.78
DET	6-5	0.554	2.12	35.58	13.78	5.02	1.93	0.78
TEN	6-4	0.440	7.95	53.12	17.91	5.24	1.57	0.44
HOU	4-6	0.509	0.65	12.33	4.74	1.68	0.61	0.21
BUF	5-5	0.417	1.78	23.58	7.37	1.98	0.56	0.15
WAS	5-6	0.466	0.00	6.43	1.93	0.55	0.17	0.05
GB	5-5	0.445	0.35	8.06	2.32	0.62	0.18	0.05
NYJ	4-6	0.454	0.02	4.03	1.35	0.40	0.13	0.04
OAK	4-6	0.414	2.69	5.80	1.92	0.51	0.14	0.04
DAL	5-6	0.457	0.05	3.94	1.14	0.32	0.10	0.03
CIN	4-6	0.426	0.06	4.14	1.27	0.35	0.10	0.03
TB	4-6	0.447	0.06	2.18	0.62	0.17	0.05	0.01
DEN	3-7	0.352	0.46	1.26	0.34	0.07	0.02	0.00
MIA	4-6	0.308	0.08	2.33	0.49	0.09	0.02	0.00
IND	3-7	0.318	0.01	0.54	0.12	0.02	0.00	0.00
ARI	4-6	0.345	0.08	0.24	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
CHI	3-7	0.394	-	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-9	0.333	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-9	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia

2017-11-21

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 11, Final

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

Two 6-4 teams playing on Monday night didn't affect anything at the top, and Jacksonville and Philadelphia remain favorites in their conferences.

I pointed out yesterday that Cleveland is not actually eliminated, and in fact they still aren't. I was able to create a scenario that gets them in the playoffs, but I wound up forcing every single game involving at least one AFC team in order to make it happen. That's not to say every game is required to go the right way, but I'd bet most of them are. I generally start searching for the scenario by making a duplicate of my games file, forcing Cleveland to win the rest of their games, then forcing all remaining AFC-NFC matchups to be won by the NFC team. Then the teams that Cleveland can't catch, as well as those that can't catch Cleveland (at 6-10), are all forced to win the rest of their games. That step may generate more 11 loss teams, so it gets repeated as long as necessary. At that point, there usually isn't much left in the way of intuition, so it comes down to checking the numbers for each game going each way, and keeping the more favorable result before moving to the next game.

In short. Cleveland isn't going to make the playoffs, unless most of approximately 60 games all go their way.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	7-3	0.711	91.41	99.61	87.58	54.16	32.77	17.97
PHI	9-1	0.706	99.70	99.92	94.27	55.30	31.06	17.47
NE	8-2	0.648	98.11	99.72	89.70	49.22	24.45	11.66
NO	8-2	0.677	77.37	96.86	72.23	38.08	19.48	10.32
PIT	8-2	0.638	95.10	99.74	83.57	43.20	21.16	9.86
LAR	7-3	0.694	77.50	88.60	60.36	32.28	17.33	9.50
MIN	8-2	0.645	85.54	96.78	77.73	37.98	17.72	8.75
KC	6-4	0.579	85.49	91.31	54.68	22.72	9.64	3.91
BAL	5-5	0.598	4.83	68.19	33.93	14.77	6.65	2.83
CAR	7-3	0.576	17.95	72.07	34.37	13.57	5.46	2.31
DET	6-4	0.567	13.80	51.28	22.10	8.40	3.33	1.38
SEA	6-4	0.588	22.42	40.34	18.57	7.53	3.15	1.37
ATL	6-4	0.544	4.61	33.88	14.05	5.03	1.89	0.74
LAC	4-6	0.562	10.75	24.70	11.57	4.59	1.88	0.73
TEN	6-4	0.440	7.94	56.31	19.18	5.60	1.68	0.48
HOU	4-6	0.509	0.65	13.58	5.25	1.86	0.68	0.23
BUF	5-5	0.417	1.78	25.93	8.16	2.20	0.62	0.16
DAL	5-5	0.500	0.30	8.58	2.88	0.92	0.31	0.11
GB	5-5	0.445	0.66	6.97	2.08	0.56	0.16	0.05
NYJ	4-6	0.454	0.03	4.74	1.59	0.48	0.15	0.04
OAK	4-6	0.414	3.10	6.60	2.20	0.59	0.16	0.04
CIN	4-6	0.426	0.06	4.65	1.43	0.40	0.12	0.03
WAS	4-6	0.449	0.00	2.68	0.78	0.21	0.06	0.02
TB	4-6	0.447	0.06	1.84	0.54	0.14	0.04	0.01
DEN	3-7	0.352	0.66	1.59	0.44	0.10	0.02	0.00
MIA	4-6	0.308	0.08	2.68	0.57	0.11	0.02	0.00
IND	3-7	0.318	0.01	0.65	0.14	0.03	0.01	0.00
ARI	4-6	0.345	0.08	0.19	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
CHI	3-7	0.394	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-9	0.333	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-8	0.326	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-
CLE	0-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-

2017-11-20

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

A loss by LA and a big win by Philadelphia has vaulted them to the top of the NFC. Jacksonville remains the AFC favorite. After Pittsburgh did it Thursday, 3 more teams crossed the 99% playoff probability mark, and Philadelphia added another 9, up over 99.9%.

I give Cleveland a 13% chance of going winless now that they are 0-10. But, they are actually not completely out of the playoffs yet. I may try to work up the exact scenario for tomorrow, since it will likely take a whole lot of games going the right way to set up the right tiebreakers, although no tie games are required since this simulation did not include ties.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	7-3	0.711	91.31	99.60	87.54	54.13	32.75	17.97
PHI	9-1	0.706	99.70	99.91	93.76	54.79	30.79	17.32
NE	8-2	0.648	98.11	99.72	89.66	49.18	24.44	11.66
NO	8-2	0.677	78.70	96.65	71.84	37.89	19.38	10.26
PIT	8-2	0.638	95.10	99.74	83.63	43.24	21.18	9.87
LAR	7-3	0.694	67.79	87.39	58.69	31.33	16.84	9.23
MIN	8-2	0.644	85.59	96.63	77.17	37.66	17.57	8.68
KC	6-4	0.579	85.48	91.30	54.68	22.72	9.64	3.92
BAL	5-5	0.598	4.83	68.21	33.95	14.78	6.65	2.83
SEA	6-3	0.598	32.16	60.21	29.47	12.29	5.24	2.34
CAR	7-3	0.576	18.24	70.48	33.53	13.26	5.33	2.26
DET	6-4	0.567	13.75	48.79	21.06	8.02	3.18	1.32
LAC	4-6	0.562	10.75	24.69	11.56	4.59	1.88	0.73
TEN	6-4	0.440	8.03	56.47	19.24	5.62	1.69	0.48
ATL	5-4	0.540	3.00	21.05	8.55	3.03	1.13	0.44
HOU	4-6	0.509	0.66	13.63	5.27	1.87	0.68	0.23
BUF	5-5	0.417	1.78	25.72	8.10	2.18	0.62	0.16
DAL	5-5	0.500	0.30	8.05	2.72	0.87	0.29	0.10
GB	5-5	0.445	0.66	6.59	1.97	0.53	0.15	0.05
NYJ	4-6	0.454	0.03	4.74	1.59	0.48	0.15	0.04
OAK	4-6	0.414	3.11	6.61	2.20	0.59	0.16	0.04
CIN	4-6	0.426	0.06	4.66	1.44	0.40	0.12	0.03
WAS	4-6	0.449	0.00	2.53	0.74	0.20	0.06	0.02
TB	4-6	0.447	0.06	1.54	0.45	0.12	0.04	0.01
DEN	3-7	0.352	0.66	1.59	0.44	0.10	0.02	0.00
MIA	4-6	0.308	0.08	2.68	0.57	0.11	0.02	0.00
IND	3-7	0.319	0.01	0.65	0.14	0.03	0.01	0.00
ARI	4-6	0.345	0.05	0.16	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
CHI	3-7	0.394	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-9	0.333	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-8	0.327	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-
CLE	0-10	0.291	-	0.00	-	-	-	-

2017-11-19

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

The top 8 teams in my rankings all won and all stayed in position. I caught a little of both Miami and Wisconsin's games, and just for fun I rooted against them both. I've got 2 SEC teams in my top 3, but it's entirely possible they'll play each other for the SEC title, knocking one down a bit.

Everyone in Missouri was sure they were sunk earlier in the season, but now they've got a real chance at going 7-5, which I think pretty much guarantees a bowl appearance. 6-6 is usually considered bowl-eligible, but sometimes even 5-7 teams make it if there aren't enough 6-win teams.

Georgia Southern won a game, and UTEP is now the only winless team, and a solid #130. They've got one last game, against 7-4 #62 UAB, so I'd wager we're looking at an 0-12 season for UTEP.

1	Alabama	11-0
2	Wisconsin	11-0
3	Georgia	10-1
4	Miami	10-0
5	Clemson	10-1
6	USC	10-2
7	UCF	10-0
8	Oklahoma	10-1
9	Penn State	9-2
10	Auburn	9-2
11	Ohio State	9-2
12	Washington State	9-2
13	TCU	9-2
14	Washington	9-2
15	Memphis	9-1
16	Boise State	9-2
17	Notre Dame	8-3
18	San Diego State	9-2
19	Toledo	9-2
20	Michigan State	8-3
21	Mississippi State	8-3
22	South Carolina	8-3
23	Florida Atlantic	8-3
24	Stanford	8-3
25	South Florida	9-1
26	Virginia Tech	8-3
27	LSU	8-3
28	Michigan	8-3
29	Northwestern	8-3
30	Oklahoma State	8-3
31	North Texas	8-3
32	NC State	7-4
33	Northern Illinois	8-3
34	Navy	7-3
35	Troy	8-2
36	Wake Forest	7-4
37	Texas A&M	7-4
38	Army	8-3
39	Fresno State	8-3
40	Iowa State	7-4
41	Ohio	8-3
42	Kentucky	7-4
43	Arizona	7-4
44	Louisville	7-4
45	Iowa	6-5
46	Boston College	6-5
47	Oregon	6-5
48	West Virginia	7-4
49	Wyoming	7-4
50	Marshall	7-4
51	Arizona State	6-5
52	Central Michigan	7-4
53	SMU	6-5
54	Southern Mississippi	7-4
55	Texas	6-5
56	Houston	6-4
57	Missouri	6-5
58	Florida Intl	6-4
59	Virginia	6-5
60	Kansas State	6-5
61	Colorado State	7-5
62	UAB	7-4
63	Akron	6-5
64	UCLA	5-6
65	Georgia Tech	5-5
66	Western Michigan	6-5
67	California	5-6
68	Utah State	6-5
69	Tulane	5-6
70	UT San Antonio	6-4
71	Georgia State	6-3
72	Texas Tech	5-6
73	Purdue	5-6
74	Ole Miss	5-6
75	Utah	5-6
76	Indiana	5-6
77	Temple	5-6
78	Duke	5-6
79	Colorado	5-6
80	Arkansas State	6-3
81	Appalachian State	6-4
82	Florida	4-6
83	Florida State	4-6
84	Western Kentucky	6-5
85	Maryland	4-7
86	Minnesota	5-6
87	Louisiana Tech	5-6
88	Syracuse	4-7
89	Buffalo	5-6
90	Old Dominion	5-6
91	Arkansas	4-7
92	Nebraska	4-7
93	UNLV	5-6
94	Tennessee	4-7
95	Vanderbilt	4-7
96	Middle Tennessee	5-6
97	Louisiana	5-5
98	Pittsburgh	4-7
99	Air Force	4-7
100	Eastern Michigan	4-7
101	Rutgers	4-7
102	Miami (OH)	4-7
103	Louisiana Monroe	4-6
104	Cincinnati	3-8
105	North Carolina	3-8
106	South Alabama	4-7
107	East Carolina	3-8
108	Connecticut	3-8
109	New Mexico State	4-6
110	UMass	4-7
111	New Mexico	3-8
112	Idaho	3-7
113	Hawai'i	3-8
114	BYU	3-9
115	Tulsa	2-9
116	Bowling Green	2-9
117	Kent State	2-9
118	Nevada	2-9
119	Illinois	2-9
120	Ball State	2-9
121	Oregon State	1-10
122	Coastal Carolina	2-9
123	Kansas	1-10
124	Baylor	1-10
125	Texas State	2-9
126	Charlotte	1-10
127	Georgia Southern	1-9
128	Rice	1-10
129	San Jose State	1-11
130	UTEP	0-11

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Georgia
Week 10 Georgia
Week 11 Alabama

2017-11-17

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville

The Rams took over the NFC again, and I'm assuming it's because Tennessee was weakened by their loss to Pittsburgh Thursday night, favoring LA more in that game than before. By virtue of getting to play early this week, Pittsburgh is our first team to 99% chance of making the playoffs. Also, Cleveland has joined San Francisco in being eliminated from their division, but is still not quite mathematically out of the playoffs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	6-3	0.683	87.52	98.84	84.97	51.85	30.86	16.43
LAR	7-2	0.701	77.61	93.60	74.60	43.58	24.88	14.54
PHI	8-1	0.666	94.75	98.45	87.34	47.84	24.78	13.53
PIT	8-2	0.638	97.60	99.74	87.80	49.20	25.73	12.42
NO	7-2	0.673	74.75	93.22	71.08	38.41	20.36	11.28
NE	7-2	0.605	88.39	98.01	79.49	40.48	19.35	8.67
MIN	7-2	0.608	74.10	86.88	59.14	26.68	11.94	5.78
KC	6-3	0.580	91.41	95.16	66.24	30.03	13.63	5.76
SEA	6-3	0.598	22.29	56.18	29.47	12.87	5.72	2.71
CAR	7-3	0.576	21.38	66.48	33.57	13.83	5.79	2.62
BAL	4-5	0.544	2.34	43.92	19.77	8.09	3.43	1.33
DET	5-4	0.562	20.79	38.87	17.77	6.99	2.83	1.23
BUF	5-4	0.474	10.87	53.85	22.35	7.69	2.73	0.88
DAL	5-4	0.553	5.19	22.03	9.56	3.72	1.48	0.64
TEN	6-4	0.440	11.66	56.91	20.04	6.36	2.09	0.62
ATL	5-4	0.540	3.83	20.83	9.09	3.40	1.32	0.55
GB	5-4	0.494	5.02	16.93	6.34	2.08	0.71	0.27
OAK	4-5	0.464	5.20	16.75	6.55	2.17	0.75	0.24
HOU	3-6	0.491	0.80	9.61	3.68	1.35	0.51	0.17
LAC	3-6	0.495	2.46	8.70	3.57	1.29	0.48	0.17
NYJ	4-6	0.454	0.06	4.99	1.79	0.57	0.20	0.06
WAS	4-5	0.453	0.06	5.32	1.71	0.51	0.16	0.05
CIN	3-6	0.419	0.05	3.02	0.96	0.28	0.09	0.02
DEN	3-6	0.361	0.94	3.99	1.14	0.28	0.07	0.02
MIA	4-5	0.325	0.68	5.80	1.49	0.32	0.07	0.02
TB	3-6	0.425	0.04	0.59	0.17	0.05	0.01	0.00
IND	3-7	0.318	0.02	0.71	0.16	0.04	0.01	0.00
ARI	4-5	0.361	0.10	0.42	0.11	0.02	0.01	0.00
CHI	3-6	0.398	0.09	0.20	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00
SF	1-9	0.333	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	1-8	0.333	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-
CLE	0-9	0.318	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia

2017-11-14

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 10, Final

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

Well, I wasn't expecting that to happen. Philadelphia now just barely edges out LA for the NFC. Both teams lost a little ground due to the NFC's Carolina winning over the AFC's Miami on Monday night, strengthening the NFC pool. I suspect that there are more situations where Carolina plays LA than where they play Philadelphia, affecting LA's chances more.

I also ran fewer simulations than usual today due to time constraints, so it's also possible the teams are even closer and more simulations would have pushed LA higher. But for now, this is what we've got to work with.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	6-3	0.683	79.18	98.62	84.04	52.52	32.24	17.17
LAR	7-2	0.701	77.09	93.29	74.16	43.31	24.73	14.75
PHI	8-1	0.666	94.75	98.45	87.38	47.88	24.81	13.85
NO	7-2	0.673	74.75	93.21	71.15	38.48	20.40	11.55
NE	7-2	0.605	88.78	97.68	80.78	42.52	20.96	9.40
PIT	7-2	0.594	94.31	98.05	77.35	39.21	18.86	8.24
KC	6-3	0.579	91.40	94.66	66.46	31.44	14.71	6.22
MIN	7-2	0.608	73.95	86.81	59.18	26.71	11.96	5.94
SEA	6-3	0.598	22.81	56.15	29.50	12.90	5.74	2.79
CAR	7-3	0.576	21.39	66.39	33.58	13.84	5.80	2.69
TEN	6-3	0.484	20.15	72.74	32.92	12.22	4.62	1.54
BAL	4-5	0.544	5.51	42.37	19.83	8.46	3.67	1.42
DET	5-4	0.562	20.72	38.84	17.77	7.00	2.83	1.27
BUF	5-4	0.474	10.51	49.73	21.42	7.75	2.83	0.92
DAL	5-4	0.553	5.19	21.95	9.54	3.71	1.48	0.65
ATL	5-4	0.540	3.83	20.80	9.09	3.41	1.32	0.57
GB	5-4	0.494	5.25	17.63	6.61	2.18	0.75	0.29
OAK	4-5	0.464	5.21	14.67	5.88	2.05	0.74	0.23
HOU	3-6	0.491	0.66	8.26	3.29	1.26	0.49	0.16
LAC	3-6	0.495	2.46	7.61	3.18	1.20	0.46	0.16
WAS	4-5	0.453	0.06	5.31	1.71	0.51	0.16	0.05
NYJ	4-6	0.454	0.06	3.99	1.48	0.50	0.18	0.05
CIN	3-6	0.419	0.19	2.86	0.95	0.30	0.09	0.03
DEN	3-6	0.361	0.94	3.32	0.97	0.25	0.07	0.02
MIA	4-5	0.325	0.64	4.91	1.31	0.30	0.07	0.01
TB	3-6	0.425	0.04	0.59	0.17	0.05	0.01	0.00
IND	3-7	0.319	0.01	0.55	0.13	0.03	0.01	0.00
ARI	4-5	0.361	0.10	0.39	0.10	0.02	0.01	0.00
CHI	3-6	0.398	0.09	0.20	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00
CLE	0-9	0.318	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-9	0.333	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	1-8	0.333	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville

2017-11-13

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville

With no game for Philadelphia this week, LA caught them in the NFC projection, so here we are, back to the same matchup projected as Week 1. It seems odd that Jacksonville's odds are so high when they are 6-3, but in the AFC there just aren't many strong teams, even the two that are 7-2. Also, I should point out that while Jacksonville has the highest chance of winning the Superbowl, which is how this table is sorted, they are weaker than LA, so that's why the projection has the Rams winning. Jacksonville joined Philadelphia up over 98% likely to make the playoffs, but neither has quite crossed 99% yet.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	6-3	0.683	79.16	98.57	84.23	52.72	32.37	17.23
LAR	7-2	0.700	77.09	93.83	75.00	43.95	25.14	14.99
PHI	8-1	0.666	94.75	98.62	87.60	48.33	25.06	13.99
NO	7-2	0.673	81.75	94.39	73.56	39.97	21.22	12.01
NE	7-2	0.605	87.95	97.17	80.10	42.15	20.79	9.32
PIT	7-2	0.594	94.30	98.01	77.63	39.45	18.97	8.29
KC	6-3	0.579	91.14	94.37	66.28	31.38	14.69	6.21
MIN	7-2	0.608	74.61	88.32	61.53	27.85	12.48	6.20
SEA	6-3	0.598	22.81	57.96	30.60	13.38	5.96	2.90
TEN	6-3	0.484	20.17	71.89	32.79	12.18	4.61	1.54
BAL	4-5	0.544	5.51	42.03	19.74	8.42	3.66	1.42
DET	5-4	0.562	19.98	41.05	18.94	7.46	3.02	1.36
CAR	6-3	0.523	13.32	50.83	22.10	7.96	2.93	1.21
BUF	5-4	0.474	10.30	47.01	20.34	7.36	2.69	0.87
DAL	5-4	0.553	5.19	23.55	10.24	3.98	1.59	0.70
ATL	5-4	0.540	4.88	23.95	10.52	3.95	1.53	0.66
GB	5-4	0.494	5.34	20.23	7.61	2.51	0.86	0.33
OAK	4-5	0.464	5.38	14.71	5.94	2.07	0.74	0.24
HOU	3-6	0.491	0.66	8.00	3.20	1.22	0.47	0.16
LAC	3-6	0.495	2.55	7.35	3.09	1.16	0.45	0.15
WAS	4-5	0.453	0.06	5.84	1.89	0.56	0.17	0.06
NYJ	4-6	0.454	0.07	4.05	1.51	0.51	0.18	0.06
MIA	4-4	0.358	1.67	10.42	3.19	0.82	0.22	0.05
CIN	3-6	0.419	0.19	2.74	0.92	0.28	0.09	0.03
DEN	3-6	0.361	0.93	3.17	0.94	0.24	0.07	0.02
TB	3-6	0.425	0.06	0.75	0.22	0.06	0.02	0.01
ARI	4-5	0.362	0.10	0.45	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00
IND	3-7	0.319	0.01	0.53	0.13	0.03	0.01	0.00
CHI	3-6	0.398	0.08	0.23	0.07	0.02	0.00	0.00
CLE	0-9	0.319	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-9	0.333	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	1-8	0.333	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

2017-11-12

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 11

Georgia lost big to Auburn, and fell down to #3. Alabama and Wisconsin each take a step forward to #1 and #2, respectively. Rounding out the top 4, Notre Dame was replaced by Miami, the team that beat them, rising up from #8. I'd assume the late loss will drop Georgia significantly further in the real rankings.

Missouri won again. This week the Tennessee coach was fired right after their win, as opposed to last week's win right after the Florida coach was fired. I've got them at #68. They've got 2 road games left, but the two opponents are a combined 1-11 against the SEC. Hooray for bowl inflation.

UTEP lost again and remained just behind Georgia Southern at #129 and #130. A little higher up, former #130 UMass is going on a tear, having now won 3 games to reach #114. This week was a late season FCS opponent, but it's still a win.

1	Alabama	10-0
2	Wisconsin	10-0
3	Georgia	9-1
4	Miami	9-0
5	Clemson	9-1
6	USC	9-2
7	UCF	9-0
8	Oklahoma	9-1
9	Washington State	9-2
10	Notre Dame	8-2
11	Penn State	8-2
12	Ohio State	8-2
13	Auburn	8-2
14	Boise State	8-2
15	Washington	8-2
16	TCU	8-2
17	Memphis	8-1
18	Oklahoma State	8-2
19	San Diego State	8-2
20	Michigan	8-2
21	Toledo	8-2
22	Michigan State	7-3
23	NC State	7-3
24	South Florida	8-1
25	Mississippi State	7-3
26	Stanford	7-3
27	Troy	8-2
28	South Carolina	7-3
29	LSU	7-3
30	Virginia Tech	7-3
31	Florida Atlantic	7-3
32	Army	8-2
33	Ohio	8-2
34	Northwestern	7-3
35	Arizona	7-3
36	Iowa	6-4
37	Kentucky	7-3
38	West Virginia	7-3
39	North Texas	7-3
40	Northern Illinois	7-3
41	Iowa State	6-4
42	Marshall	7-3
43	Wyoming	7-3
44	Texas A&M	6-4
45	Navy	6-3
46	Fresno State	7-3
47	Wake Forest	6-4
48	Houston	6-3
49	SMU	6-4
50	Louisville	6-4
51	Florida Intl	6-3
52	Boston College	5-5
53	UAB	7-3
54	Oregon	5-5
55	Georgia Tech	5-4
56	Virginia	6-4
57	Arizona State	5-5
58	UCLA	5-5
59	Central Michigan	6-4
60	Western Michigan	6-4
61	California	5-5
62	Southern Mississippi	6-4
63	Georgia State	6-3
64	Ole Miss	5-5
65	Colorado State	6-5
66	Texas Tech	5-5
67	Utah	5-5
68	Missouri	5-5
69	Texas	5-5
70	Temple	5-5
71	Colorado	5-6
72	Kansas State	5-5
73	Akron	5-5
74	Appalachian State	6-4
75	Minnesota	5-5
76	Utah State	5-5
77	Syracuse	4-6
78	Maryland	4-6
79	Middle Tennessee	5-5
80	Tulane	4-6
81	UT San Antonio	5-4
82	Indiana	4-6
83	Arkansas State	5-3
84	Arkansas	4-6
85	Purdue	4-6
86	Vanderbilt	4-6
87	Nebraska	4-6
88	Tennessee	4-6
89	Duke	4-6
90	Florida State	3-6
91	Pittsburgh	4-6
92	Rutgers	4-6
93	Louisiana Tech	4-6
94	Miami (OH)	4-6
95	Western Kentucky	5-5
96	Florida	3-6
97	Air Force	4-6
98	Buffalo	4-6
99	UNLV	4-6
100	Old Dominion	4-6
101	South Alabama	4-6
102	Cincinnati	3-7
103	Louisiana Monroe	4-5
104	Louisiana	4-5
105	New Mexico State	4-5
106	Connecticut	3-7
107	Eastern Michigan	3-7
108	Idaho	3-6
109	New Mexico	3-7
110	Hawai'i	3-7
111	BYU	3-8
112	East Carolina	2-8
113	North Carolina	2-8
114	UMass	3-7
115	Kent State	2-8
116	Tulsa	2-8
117	Bowling Green	2-8
118	Nevada	2-8
119	Illinois	2-8
120	Ball State	2-8
121	Oregon State	1-9
122	Texas State	2-8
123	Baylor	1-9
124	Charlotte	1-9
125	Kansas	1-9
126	Rice	1-9
127	Coastal Carolina	1-9
128	San Jose State	1-10
129	Georgia Southern	0-9
130	UTEP	0-10

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Georgia
Week 10 Georgia