Tenets of Wilson

2018-10-21

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

Alabama moved to 8-0 and slipped past Notre Dame while they were on bye. Alabama is the only 8-0 team, though there are 4 7-0 teams remaining. Ohio State suffered their first loss, to fall from #4 to #8.

Missouri got a win against Memphis, a team I had ranked slightly above them (#70 vs #77) to raise themselves up to #67. Missouri was also boosted by that aforementioned Ohio State loss, which was to Purdue, one of their earlier opponents. Purdue jumped from #88 to #61.

Nebraska got a win, so there are just 2 winless teams remaining, and none from the power conferences. UTEP seems to have a stranglehold on that #129 slot.

1	Alabama	8-0
2	LSU	7-1
3	Clemson	7-0
4	Notre Dame	7-0
5	Michigan	7-1
6	South Florida	7-0
7	UCF	7-0
8	Ohio State	7-1
9	Florida	6-1
10	Washington	6-2
11	Oklahoma	6-1
12	Buffalo	7-1
13	Iowa	6-1
14	Georgia	6-1
15	Kentucky	6-1
16	Texas	6-1
17	Washington State	6-1
18	San Diego State	6-1
19	Stanford	5-2
20	NC State	5-1
21	UAB	6-1
22	Utah	5-2
23	Cincinnati	6-1
24	North Texas	6-2
25	Fresno State	6-1
26	Georgia Southern	6-1
27	Utah State	6-1
28	Army	5-2
29	Texas A&M	5-2
30	Duke	5-2
31	Western Michigan	6-2
32	Virginia	5-2
33	Houston	6-1
34	Texas Tech	5-2
35	Auburn	5-3
36	West Virginia	5-1
37	Hawai'i	6-3
38	Penn State	5-2
39	Troy	5-2
40	Miami	5-2
41	Boise State	5-2
42	Oregon	5-2
43	Louisiana Tech	5-2
44	Wisconsin	5-2
45	Syracuse	5-2
46	Appalachian State	5-1
47	Ole Miss	5-3
48	Boston College	5-2
49	Temple	5-3
50	Colorado	5-2
51	Marshall	5-2
52	BYU	4-3
53	USC	4-3
54	Mississippi State	4-3
55	Florida Intl	5-2
56	Michigan State	4-3
57	Eastern Michigan	4-4
58	Coastal Carolina	4-3
59	Indiana	4-4
60	Virginia Tech	4-2
61	Purdue	4-3
62	Maryland	4-3
63	Baylor	4-3
64	Northern Illinois	4-3
65	Florida State	4-3
66	Arkansas State	4-3
67	Missouri	4-3
68	Northwestern	4-3
69	Middle Tennessee	4-3
70	Oklahoma State	4-3
71	South Carolina	3-3
72	Nevada	4-4
73	UL Monroe	4-4
74	Tennessee	3-4
75	Iowa State	3-3
76	California	4-3
77	TCU	3-4
78	Ohio	4-3
79	Vanderbilt	3-5
80	Wake Forest	3-4
81	Memphis	4-4
82	Arizona State	3-4
83	Georgia Tech	3-4
84	Pittsburgh	3-4
85	Florida Atlantic	3-4
86	Kansas State	3-4
87	Minnesota	3-4
88	Air Force	3-4
89	Southern Mississippi	3-3
90	SMU	3-4
91	Toledo	3-4
92	Illinois	3-4
93	Colorado State	3-5
94	Akron	3-3
95	New Mexico	3-4
96	Louisiana	3-4
97	Miami (OH)	3-5
98	UCLA	2-5
99	Arizona	3-5
100	Georgia State	2-5
101	Charlotte	3-4
102	Wyoming	2-6
103	Tulane	2-5
104	Ball State	3-5
105	East Carolina	2-5
106	UMass	2-6
107	Louisville	2-5
108	Arkansas	2-6
109	UTSA	3-5
110	South Alabama	2-5
111	Navy	2-5
112	Kansas	2-5
113	UConn	1-6
114	UNLV	2-5
115	Nebraska	1-6
116	Tulsa	1-6
117	New Mexico State	2-6
118	Old Dominion	2-6
119	North Carolina	1-5
120	Central Michigan	1-7
121	Oregon State	1-6
122	Rice	1-7
123	Bowling Green	1-7
124	Rutgers	1-7
125	San Jose State	0-7
126	Western Kentucky	1-6
127	Kent State	1-7
128	Texas State	1-6
129	UTEP	0-7

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame

2018 World Series Projection, October 21

Boston over Los Angeles

World Series
LAD 0-0 BOS

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 4-3 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	Win
BOS	0.6382	52.75
LAD	0.6265	47.25

I've got Boston just slightly favored above LA. As I'm sure you'll read multiple places, Boston beat the Brooklyn Robins in the 1916 World Series, a team that would eventually become the Brooklyn then LA Dodgers. We'll have to wait until Tuesday for the series to start, but at least it will be on network TV, and I won't have to mess around trying to get various streaming services to work.

2018-10-20

2018 World Series Projection, October 20

Boston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 3-3 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	WS	Win
BOS	0.6382	100.00	58.80
LAD	0.6265	56.58	26.74
MIL	0.5627	43.42	14.46

We're down to game 7 in the NLCS, after Milwaukee never really let game 6 be in doubt. Scoring 4 runs in the first is a good way to put your opponent back on their heels for the remainder of the game. Going to 7 games isn't going to help the winner set up their rotation for the World Series. Fortunately for them, the NL started a day earlier, because as it is, Boston will have 4 days off, compared to 2 for the NL winner.

2018-10-19

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

Denver trounced Arizona, but is still only 3-4, so they didn't really mess with the end projection much. Arizona is now down to 421 Superbowl wins out of 100,000,000.

I did find a mistake I made last week, which renders my Week 6 Sunday and Monday numbers incorrect. I manually put the scores into a text file for processing, and accidentally gave Chicago 38 points (and thus a win) instead of 28 points, and the loss, against Miami. They're now properly down at 3-2, and Miami up to 4-2. I did a quick check of Monday's numbers vs what I projected with the error, and the difference wasn't huge, so I'm not going to go back and fix them, but I will keep the correct score in there going forward, and I'll check my results a little more closely against the standings in the future.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	6-0	0.622	93.57	98.15	91.17	53.93	31.48	17.61
BAL	4-2	0.646	57.77	81.54	67.53	42.09	25.90	15.09
KC	5-1	0.561	68.76	84.93	68.07	35.57	17.81	8.82
CHI	3-2	0.580	49.77	69.69	50.49	26.68	13.67	7.07
NO	4-1	0.557	60.95	74.85	54.08	27.34	13.26	6.55
NE	4-2	0.548	49.62	67.63	49.88	25.00	12.11	5.84
LAC	4-2	0.554	25.95	59.05	39.97	20.13	9.94	4.85
CIN	4-2	0.527	25.59	53.74	35.31	16.58	7.84	3.62
DAL	3-3	0.549	35.99	48.60	30.16	14.67	7.04	3.43
SEA	3-3	0.556	6.12	45.51	25.61	12.19	6.07	2.99
PHI	3-3	0.544	30.29	42.00	25.38	12.18	5.79	2.79
NYJ	3-3	0.548	22.54	37.19	23.60	11.62	5.66	2.72
WAS	3-2	0.505	32.89	50.09	29.83	13.15	5.70	2.52
PIT	3-2-1	0.530	14.37	37.31	23.25	10.98	5.22	2.42
CAR	3-2	0.514	25.54	43.32	25.49	11.47	5.09	2.30
GB	3-2-1	0.508	23.03	43.83	25.17	11.14	4.89	2.18
MIA	4-2	0.469	26.34	44.71	26.59	11.02	4.48	1.81
HOU	3-3	0.496	36.86	40.70	21.46	9.31	4.00	1.72
MIN	3-2-1	0.484	16.91	32.98	17.86	7.49	3.11	1.31
JAC	3-3	0.459	29.10	33.01	16.23	6.47	2.55	1.01
TEN	3-3	0.443	26.97	28.96	12.97	4.98	1.89	0.72
DET	2-3	0.478	10.29	18.95	9.75	4.01	1.66	0.69
DEN	3-4	0.502	5.10	13.46	7.21	3.21	1.42	0.62
TB	2-3	0.453	7.99	15.58	7.46	2.87	1.11	0.44
ATL	2-4	0.461	5.52	12.45	5.89	2.29	0.91	0.36
CLE	2-3-1	0.454	2.28	7.68	3.80	1.51	0.61	0.24
IND	1-5	0.453	7.07	7.51	3.15	1.23	0.48	0.19
SF	1-5	0.447	0.30	2.37	1.02	0.38	0.15	0.06
NYG	1-5	0.414	0.83	1.57	0.63	0.21	0.08	0.03
BUF	2-4	0.365	1.50	2.09	0.77	0.24	0.07	0.02
OAK	1-5	0.385	0.19	0.51	0.20	0.07	0.02	0.01
ARI	1-6	0.329	0.01	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

2018 World Series Projection, October 19

Boston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 3-2 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	WS	Win
BOS	0.6382	100.00	55.38
LAD	0.6265	81.15	38.34
MIL	0.5627	18.85	6.28

Boston wrapped up the ALCS, and the NLCS will finish tonight or Saturday. Boston will be favored going into the start of the World Series either way.

2018-10-18

2018 World Series Projection, October 18

Boston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-3 BOS
LAD 3-2 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	16.23	10.53
BOS	0.6382	83.77	46.39
LAD	0.6265	81.15	37.06
MIL	0.5627	18.85	6.02

Boston and LA are both just one win from the World Series. Boston will get up to 3 chances, while LA has to win one of the next 2 games. The NL has a break today, but the ALCS could end as early as tonight.

2018-10-17

2018 World Series Projection, October 17

Boston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-2 BOS
LAD 2-2 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	38.36	25.93
BOS	0.6382	61.64	35.96
LAD	0.6265	59.82	26.03
MIL	0.5627	40.18	12.08

Boston blew out Houston to take over the AL lead, and LA took 13 innings to tie up the series with Milwaukee and retake the NL projection lead. Both teams go back at it tonight, and we'll have LCS games through at least Friday now.

2018-10-16

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 6, Final

Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

At 3-2-1, Green Bay is in the middle of the pack, so they didn't change the projection very much with their win over San Francisco. They took a few percentage points off the Division title chances of Chicago, but remain below a 2% shot of winning the Super Bowl, although they've moved just ahead of Houston, 1 spot higher than before. On the other end of Monday's game, San Francisco lost one spot to fall behind Denver, down to an 0.05% chance of winning it all.

Also, yesterday I said Arizona only won the Super Bowl 416 out of 100 million times, but I was reading my raw numbers wrong. That's how many times they become the NFC #1 seed, presumably at 11-5. I showed them winning the Super Bowl 4931 times, which still displays a 0.00% in my chart.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	6-0	0.622	93.41	97.92	89.62	52.76	30.32	16.91
BAL	4-2	0.646	56.63	82.76	68.45	42.54	26.09	15.08
CHI	4-1	0.591	69.60	85.63	68.19	37.28	19.44	10.24
KC	5-1	0.561	69.87	86.97	69.95	36.44	18.14	8.90
NO	4-1	0.557	61.06	74.32	52.04	25.75	12.42	6.12
NE	4-2	0.548	57.17	71.31	52.41	26.15	12.63	6.03
LAC	4-2	0.554	28.10	64.70	43.89	22.02	10.81	5.23
CIN	4-2	0.527	26.18	57.80	37.92	17.70	8.31	3.80
DAL	3-3	0.549	35.99	47.93	28.96	13.79	6.58	3.19
NYJ	3-3	0.548	27.61	40.80	25.52	12.52	6.08	2.90
SEA	3-3	0.556	6.22	43.27	24.03	11.33	5.57	2.73
PIT	3-2-1	0.530	14.82	41.63	25.93	12.17	5.74	2.64
PHI	3-3	0.544	30.30	41.32	24.34	11.44	5.40	2.59
WAS	3-2	0.505	32.89	49.19	28.53	12.33	5.31	2.34
CAR	3-2	0.514	25.60	42.53	24.25	10.69	4.71	2.12
GB	3-2-1	0.508	13.61	40.39	22.08	9.57	4.18	1.85
HOU	3-3	0.496	37.98	42.63	22.65	9.78	4.19	1.78
MIN	3-2-1	0.484	10.37	30.52	15.89	6.53	2.70	1.13
JAC	3-3	0.459	28.82	33.41	16.50	6.53	2.57	1.00
MIA	3-3	0.451	13.17	23.68	12.36	4.87	1.90	0.73
TEN	3-3	0.443	26.27	28.76	13.03	4.96	1.88	0.70
DET	2-3	0.478	6.42	16.32	8.18	3.32	1.36	0.56
TB	2-3	0.453	8.02	15.13	6.99	2.62	1.01	0.39
ATL	2-4	0.461	5.32	11.42	5.26	2.00	0.79	0.31
CLE	2-3-1	0.454	2.37	9.29	4.59	1.81	0.72	0.28
IND	1-5	0.453	6.93	7.51	3.14	1.21	0.47	0.18
DEN	2-4	0.432	1.81	5.44	2.46	0.92	0.34	0.13
SF	1-5	0.447	0.32	2.21	0.93	0.35	0.13	0.05
BUF	2-4	0.365	2.05	2.66	0.96	0.30	0.09	0.03
NYG	1-5	0.414	0.82	1.46	0.57	0.19	0.07	0.02
OAK	1-5	0.385	0.22	0.64	0.25	0.08	0.03	0.01
ARI	1-5	0.375	0.05	0.45	0.15	0.04	0.01	0.00

2018 World Series Projection, October 16

Houston over Milwaukee

League Championship Series
HOU 1-1 BOS
LAD 1-2 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	58.48	40.86
BOS	0.6382	41.52	25.27
LAD	0.6265	41.71	17.33
MIL	0.5627	58.29	16.54

Milwaukee won game 3, and with a 2-1 lead is now favored in the NLCS again. LA got shut out and only managed 5 hits. However, they only allowed 7 hits for Milwaukee, those just happened to be stacked together enough to allow 4 runs as well. The ALCS resumes tonight, and we'll have 2 games a day for at least the next 2 days.

2018-10-15

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

Baltimore shut out Tennessee, which in my system skyrockets your strength. They are now the strongest team, though not the most likely to make and win the Super Bowl. That title still belongs to LA, who eked out a win against Denver. However, in a head to head matchup, Baltimore would win. Hence why the matchup projection and table seem incongruous. I'm getting close to the point where I will need to start running more simulations, because today Arizona won the Superbowl in just 416 out of 100 million runs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	6-0	0.621	93.12	97.89	89.66	52.84	30.36	16.93
BAL	4-2	0.646	56.62	82.75	68.43	42.54	26.08	15.07
CHI	4-1	0.591	72.15	86.32	68.93	37.72	19.67	10.36
KC	5-1	0.561	69.87	86.97	69.94	36.43	18.13	8.89
NO	4-1	0.557	61.04	74.77	52.49	25.97	12.53	6.17
NE	4-2	0.548	57.18	71.35	52.46	26.17	12.65	6.04
LAC	4-2	0.554	28.11	64.69	43.89	22.02	10.81	5.22
CIN	4-2	0.527	26.19	57.78	37.90	17.69	8.31	3.80
DAL	3-3	0.549	35.99	48.46	29.36	13.98	6.67	3.23
NYJ	3-3	0.548	27.61	40.83	25.54	12.52	6.08	2.91
SEA	3-3	0.556	6.17	44.23	24.54	11.56	5.68	2.79
PIT	3-2-1	0.530	14.82	41.60	25.91	12.16	5.74	2.63
PHI	3-3	0.544	30.29	41.86	24.72	11.62	5.49	2.63
WAS	3-2	0.505	32.89	49.81	28.96	12.51	5.39	2.37
CAR	3-2	0.514	25.61	43.17	24.65	10.86	4.78	2.15
HOU	3-3	0.496	37.96	42.61	22.63	9.77	4.19	1.78
GB	2-2-1	0.502	9.70	30.42	16.09	6.87	2.97	1.30
MIN	3-2-1	0.484	11.12	31.50	16.41	6.75	2.79	1.17
JAC	3-3	0.459	28.83	33.40	16.50	6.53	2.57	1.00
MIA	3-3	0.451	13.17	23.72	12.38	4.87	1.90	0.73
TEN	3-3	0.443	26.28	28.76	13.03	4.96	1.88	0.71
DET	2-3	0.478	7.04	16.96	8.51	3.45	1.41	0.59
TB	2-3	0.453	8.01	15.55	7.19	2.69	1.04	0.41
ATL	2-4	0.461	5.34	11.82	5.45	2.07	0.81	0.33
CLE	2-3-1	0.454	2.37	9.30	4.59	1.81	0.72	0.28
IND	1-5	0.453	6.93	7.51	3.14	1.21	0.47	0.18
SF	1-4	0.451	0.67	5.24	2.28	0.85	0.33	0.13
DEN	2-4	0.432	1.81	5.43	2.46	0.92	0.34	0.12
BUF	2-4	0.365	2.04	2.66	0.96	0.30	0.09	0.03
NYG	1-5	0.414	0.82	1.51	0.60	0.20	0.07	0.02
OAK	1-5	0.385	0.22	0.64	0.25	0.08	0.03	0.01
ARI	1-5	0.375	0.04	0.48	0.16	0.05	0.02	0.00

2018 World Series Projection, October 15

Houston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-1 BOS
LAD 1-1 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	58.48	39.35
BOS	0.6382	41.52	24.09
LAD	0.6265	62.20	25.84
MIL	0.5627	37.80	10.72

Both series are tied 1-1, making them effectively 5 game series with reversed homefield advantage. Tonight, the NL resumes after an off day to travel to LA.

2018-10-14

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

Notre Dame remains #1, and Alabama has climbed to #2 despite only beating Missouri, who has fallen to #77.

Congrats to UCLA for winning a game, and to UTEP for holding that #129 slot for another week despite a bye.

1	Notre Dame	7-0
2	Alabama	7-0
3	LSU	6-1
4	Ohio State	7-0
5	Clemson	6-0
6	Florida	6-1
7	Texas	6-1
8	Georgia	6-1
9	Michigan	6-1
10	South Florida	6-0
11	UCF	6-0
12	NC State	5-0
13	Cincinnati	6-0
14	Oklahoma	5-1
15	Iowa	5-1
16	Kentucky	5-1
17	Buffalo	6-1
18	North Texas	6-1
19	Washington	5-2
20	Duke	5-1
T-21	Texas A&M	5-2
T-21	Hawai'i	6-2
23	San Diego State	5-1
24	West Virginia	5-1
25	Stanford	4-2
26	Washington State	5-1
27	Oregon	5-1
28	Miami	5-2
29	Ole Miss	5-2
30	Troy	5-2
31	UAB	5-1
32	Fresno State	5-1
33	Utah	4-2
34	Boston College	5-2
35	Utah State	5-1
36	Colorado	5-1
37	Georgia Southern	5-1
38	Western Michigan	5-2
39	USC	4-2
40	Army	4-2
41	BYU	4-3
42	Houston	5-1
43	Texas Tech	4-2
44	Louisiana Tech	4-2
45	Mississippi State	4-2
46	Virginia	4-2
47	Indiana	4-3
48	Michigan State	4-2
T-49	Baylor	4-3
T-49	Penn State	4-2
51	Boise State	4-2
52	Maryland	4-2
53	Syracuse	4-2
54	Wisconsin	4-2
55	Auburn	4-3
56	Appalachian State	4-1
57	Virginia Tech	4-2
58	Oklahoma State	4-3
59	Northern Illinois	4-3
60	Temple	4-3
61	Florida Intl	4-2
62	Marshall	4-2
63	South Carolina	3-3
64	Tennessee	3-3
65	Iowa State	3-3
66	Wake Forest	3-3
67	TCU	3-3
68	Coastal Carolina	3-3
69	Minnesota	3-3
70	Memphis	4-3
71	Arizona State	3-3
72	Eastern Michigan	3-4
73	Kansas State	3-4
74	Vanderbilt	3-4
75	Florida State	3-3
76	Arkansas State	3-3
77	Missouri	3-3
78	Georgia Tech	3-4
79	Northwestern	3-3
80	Middle Tennessee	3-3
81	UL Monroe	3-4
82	Pittsburgh	3-4
83	Florida Atlantic	3-3
84	California	3-3
85	Colorado State	3-4
86	Ohio	3-3
87	Arizona	3-4
88	Purdue	3-3
89	Louisiana	3-3
90	Toledo	3-3
91	Illinois	3-3
92	New Mexico	3-3
93	Miami (OH)	3-4
94	Nevada	3-4
95	Georgia State	2-4
96	Tulane	2-4
97	Ball State	3-4
98	Charlotte	3-3
99	UTSA	3-4
100	Akron	2-3
101	SMU	2-4
T-102	Air Force	2-4
T-102	Southern Mississippi	2-3
104	UMass	2-5
105	Wyoming	2-5
106	East Carolina	2-4
107	Kansas	2-4
108	Louisville	2-5
109	Navy	2-4
110	UNLV	2-4
111	South Alabama	2-5
112	UCLA	1-5
113	UConn	1-5
114	Tulsa	1-5
115	New Mexico State	2-5
116	North Carolina	1-4
117	Arkansas	1-6
118	Central Michigan	1-6
119	Oregon State	1-5
120	Bowling Green	1-6
121	Rice	1-6
122	Rutgers	1-6
123	Western Kentucky	1-5
124	Old Dominion	1-6
125	San Jose State	0-6
126	Kent State	1-6
127	Nebraska	0-6
128	Texas State	1-5
129	UTEP	0-6

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame

2018 World Series Projection, October 14

Houston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-0 BOS
LAD 1-1 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	73.72	49.60
BOS	0.6382	26.28	15.25
LAD	0.6265	62.20	24.92
MIL	0.5627	37.80	10.24

ALCS game 1 was close until the 9th when Houston scored 4 runs to make it a 5 run lead. Until that point I thought we had a decent chance of seeing a walkoff by Boston. LA evened the series against Milwaukee, and is now favored again. Note they are not quite as favored as they were when the series was 0-0, becuase a 7 games series is more likely to have the stronger team win than a 5 game series.

2018-10-13

2018 World Series Projection, October 13

Houston over Milwaukee

League Championship Series
HOU 0-0 BOS
LAD 0-1 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	59.87	41.40
BOS	0.6382	40.13	24.11
LAD	0.6265	47.38	19.62
MIL	0.5627	52.62	14.87

At least for a day, Milwaukee is the new favorite to win the NL. The teams are closely matched enough that any series lead will result in the leader being favored. Tonight, the ALCS begins, and we'll see if Houston can continue on their path to be the first team to repeat as champions since 2000.

2018-10-12

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 6, Thursday

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

I need some kind of specific hook for Thursday projections, because they never seem to have an effect at the top unless one of the top teams is playing. Philadelphia moved up to be the 5th most likely team to win the NFC, from 7th, and are now 47% likely to win the NFC East, up from 29%. New York, of course, moved in the opposite direction, from an 8% shot at the division to just under 2%, and they are the second least likely NFC representative in the Superbowl, just ahead of Arizona.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	5-0	0.609	93.88	97.20	87.76	51.66	29.56	16.66
KC	5-0	0.568	83.25	92.76	80.61	43.51	22.99	11.70
CHI	3-1	0.584	67.00	82.96	65.08	35.69	18.89	10.15
BAL	3-2	0.605	34.86	65.78	48.28	27.76	15.85	8.67
NO	4-1	0.557	53.26	77.45	56.61	28.98	14.39	7.35
CIN	4-1	0.538	45.60	71.38	52.28	26.05	12.85	6.16
NE	3-2	0.548	50.23	60.89	40.76	20.62	10.36	5.07
JAC	3-2	0.540	45.49	57.62	37.56	18.58	9.15	4.40
CAR	3-1	0.525	32.70	60.69	39.38	18.50	8.57	4.10
PHI	3-3	0.544	46.69	54.48	33.07	15.96	7.73	3.85
LAC	3-2	0.512	13.23	43.16	25.18	11.72	5.48	2.49
TEN	3-2	0.503	35.42	45.00	26.26	12.01	5.47	2.43
NYJ	2-3	0.537	22.01	30.94	18.05	8.84	4.34	2.08
WAS	2-2	0.491	32.38	42.96	23.97	10.27	4.42	1.96
GB	2-2-1	0.502	13.87	36.26	19.93	8.76	3.90	1.78
PIT	2-2-1	0.517	10.11	26.72	15.84	7.50	3.54	1.63
CLE	2-2-1	0.502	9.43	25.20	14.49	6.63	3.04	1.35
SEA	2-3	0.504	4.53	28.48	14.59	6.32	2.85	1.31
MIA	3-2	0.461	22.89	34.85	18.73	7.77	3.22	1.30
TB	2-2	0.460	11.76	28.42	14.70	5.85	2.35	0.98
MIN	2-2-1	0.466	9.55	25.08	12.71	5.14	2.10	0.88
DAL	2-3	0.466	19.15	25.13	12.47	5.00	2.04	0.86
HOU	2-3	0.482	13.36	19.93	10.41	4.52	1.96	0.83
DET	2-3	0.478	9.58	20.85	10.90	4.56	1.93	0.83
IND	1-4	0.464	5.73	7.79	3.66	1.52	0.63	0.26
DEN	2-3	0.439	2.71	9.03	4.19	1.64	0.65	0.25
ATL	1-4	0.453	2.28	8.08	3.74	1.43	0.57	0.23
SF	1-4	0.451	1.27	6.99	3.16	1.22	0.49	0.20
BUF	2-3	0.384	4.87	6.33	2.55	0.87	0.30	0.10
OAK	1-4	0.427	0.81	2.61	1.16	0.45	0.17	0.06
NYG	1-5	0.414	1.77	2.61	1.06	0.37	0.13	0.05
ARI	1-4	0.394	0.32	2.36	0.88	0.29	0.10	0.04

2018-10-10

2018 World Series Projection, October 10

Houston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 0-0 BOS
LAD 0-0 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	59.87	40.13
BOS	0.6382	40.13	23.17
LAD	0.6265	64.16	26.57
MIL	0.5627	35.84	10.13

The top 2 teams (by seeding) in each league have advanced to the NLCS and ALCS. I've still got Houston and LA favored, although both with open the series on the road as the #2 seeds, and have to play game 7 on the road as well, if necessary.

2018-10-09

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 5, Final

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

New Orleans climbed up the charts and Washington fell due to a 43-19 blowout. The NFC is still strongly favoring Los Angeles, but New Orleans bumped themselves from 9% to 15% chances of making the Super Bowl.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	5-0	0.609	94.11	97.41	88.58	52.67	30.34	17.10
KC	5-0	0.568	83.26	92.76	80.58	43.49	22.98	11.75
CHI	3-1	0.584	66.45	82.83	65.11	36.02	19.16	10.31
BAL	3-2	0.605	34.85	65.75	48.24	27.74	15.84	8.70
NO	4-1	0.557	53.77	78.75	58.48	30.25	15.11	7.72
CIN	4-1	0.538	45.61	71.36	52.24	26.03	12.84	6.18
NE	3-2	0.548	50.23	60.88	40.72	20.60	10.34	5.08
JAC	3-2	0.540	46.48	58.58	38.34	18.97	9.33	4.51
CAR	3-1	0.525	33.01	62.35	41.14	19.50	9.08	4.35
LAC	3-2	0.512	13.22	43.15	25.16	11.70	5.47	2.50
TEN	3-2	0.503	34.30	43.95	25.59	11.71	5.34	2.38
WAS	2-2	0.491	38.62	46.44	26.10	11.20	4.83	2.15
NYJ	2-3	0.537	22.00	30.92	18.02	8.83	4.33	2.08
GB	2-2-1	0.502	14.12	36.99	20.63	9.12	4.08	1.86
PIT	2-2-1	0.517	10.11	26.69	15.81	7.48	3.54	1.63
PHI	2-3	0.498	28.62	33.80	18.19	7.89	3.47	1.57
SEA	2-3	0.504	4.40	29.06	15.17	6.58	2.99	1.37
CLE	2-2-1	0.502	9.43	25.18	14.47	6.62	3.03	1.35
MIA	3-2	0.461	22.89	34.83	18.71	7.77	3.22	1.31
DAL	2-3	0.466	24.29	29.22	14.58	5.86	2.39	1.00
TB	2-2	0.460	11.10	28.02	14.65	5.86	2.37	0.99
MIN	2-2-1	0.466	9.71	25.67	13.22	5.38	2.21	0.93
DET	2-3	0.478	9.72	21.38	11.33	4.77	2.03	0.88
HOU	2-3	0.482	13.73	20.48	10.72	4.65	2.02	0.86
NYG	1-4	0.452	8.47	10.63	4.88	1.88	0.74	0.30
DEN	2-3	0.439	2.71	9.02	4.18	1.64	0.65	0.25
IND	1-4	0.464	5.49	7.50	3.52	1.46	0.61	0.25
ATL	1-4	0.453	2.12	8.02	3.79	1.47	0.59	0.24
SF	1-4	0.451	1.18	6.96	3.20	1.24	0.50	0.20
BUF	2-3	0.384	4.87	6.33	2.55	0.86	0.30	0.10
OAK	1-4	0.427	0.81	2.61	1.16	0.45	0.17	0.06
ARI	1-4	0.394	0.32	2.48	0.95	0.31	0.11	0.04

2018 World Series Projection, October 9

Houston over Los Angeles

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-2 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	100.00	61.20	41.03
BOS	0.6382	77.83	31.24	18.04
LAD	0.6265	100.00	64.16	26.79
NYY	0.6108	22.17	7.56	3.89
MIL	0.5627	100.00	35.84	10.25

I don't want to jinx it, but it's starting to look like Houston and LA could be wire-to-wire favorites through the whole posteason. Of course the easiest time for that streak to be broken is game 1 of either LCS, so we're not guaranteed anything just yet. There's just one LDS series left, and New York is going to need to turn things around if they want to survive, after a terrible 16-1 loss last night.

2018-10-08

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 5, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

Well, today's projection would have been my dream matchup between 1995 and 2015. Those two played for the Missouri Governor's Cup nearly every year, either in the regular season or preseason, and occasionally both, but sometimes neither. Speaking of teams that spurned STL, congrats to Arizona for winning their first game. We now have no winless teams remaining.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	5-0	0.609	94.23	97.54	88.49	52.44	30.24	17.03
KC	5-0	0.568	83.24	92.73	80.60	43.50	22.97	11.75
CHI	3-1	0.584	66.27	83.06	64.69	35.72	19.00	10.22
BAL	3-2	0.605	34.93	66.29	48.71	28.00	15.98	8.79
CIN	4-1	0.538	45.73	71.82	52.71	26.25	12.94	6.24
WAS	2-1	0.548	59.30	70.19	49.34	24.75	12.11	6.07
NE	3-2	0.548	50.23	60.88	40.76	20.61	10.34	5.09
CAR	3-1	0.525	42.29	64.22	42.41	20.06	9.33	4.46
JAC	3-2	0.540	46.37	57.88	37.63	18.61	9.15	4.43
NO	3-1	0.523	39.51	61.28	39.81	18.73	8.69	4.14
LAC	3-2	0.512	13.23	43.13	25.17	11.71	5.47	2.50
TEN	3-2	0.503	34.19	43.30	25.05	11.46	5.22	2.34
NYJ	2-3	0.537	22.00	30.91	18.02	8.82	4.33	2.08
GB	2-2-1	0.502	14.08	37.69	20.78	9.20	4.11	1.87
PIT	2-2-1	0.517	10.15	27.33	16.22	7.67	3.62	1.67
SEA	2-3	0.504	4.31	29.89	15.33	6.67	3.03	1.39
CLE	2-2-1	0.502	9.19	25.16	14.45	6.61	3.02	1.35
PHI	2-3	0.498	19.32	27.97	15.11	6.61	2.92	1.32
MIA	3-2	0.461	22.90	34.82	18.70	7.76	3.22	1.31
TB	2-2	0.460	14.98	29.33	15.15	6.06	2.45	1.02
MIN	2-2-1	0.466	9.97	26.94	13.69	5.58	2.29	0.96
DET	2-3	0.478	9.68	21.74	11.35	4.78	2.03	0.88
HOU	2-3	0.482	13.70	20.06	10.46	4.54	1.97	0.84
DAL	2-3	0.466	16.21	24.00	12.01	4.86	2.00	0.84
IND	1-4	0.464	5.75	7.71	3.61	1.49	0.63	0.26
ATL	1-4	0.453	3.22	8.43	3.95	1.53	0.61	0.25
DEN	2-3	0.439	2.71	9.03	4.19	1.64	0.65	0.25
NYG	1-4	0.452	5.17	7.92	3.66	1.42	0.57	0.23
SF	1-4	0.451	1.15	7.21	3.26	1.26	0.51	0.21
BUF	2-3	0.384	4.87	6.33	2.55	0.87	0.30	0.10
OAK	1-4	0.428	0.81	2.61	1.16	0.45	0.17	0.07
ARI	1-4	0.394	0.31	2.59	0.97	0.32	0.11	0.04

2018 World Series Projection, October 8

Houston over Los Angeles

Division Series
CLE 0-2 HOU
NYY 1-1 BOS
ATL 1-2 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	92.47	57.90	39.67
BOS	0.6382	54.37	22.52	13.37
LAD	0.6265	80.76	51.81	22.22
NYY	0.6108	45.63	16.14	8.58
CLE	0.6074	7.53	3.44	1.81
ATL	0.5672	19.24	9.81	2.99
MIL	0.5627	100.00	38.38	11.37

Milwaukee finished off the sweep to eliminate the weakest team this round, Colorado. Unfortunately for them, they'll be the weakest team next round. LA couldn't quite finish off Atlanta, so game 4 is tonight, along with game 3 in both ALCS.

2018-10-07

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 6

I'm still a little more bullish on Notre Dame than the polls are, with them still at #1 this week. I noticed there are only 5 6-0 teams at the top of the real polls, and thought I had an error of some sort because I also show Cincinnati at 6-0 and #7. But no, the polls have them all the way down at #25.

Missouri was favored on the road this week against South Carolina but couldn't turn that into an actual win. That dropped them from #53 to #70, with a road game against Alabama on the horizon. I don't think this is their year.

Our 4 winless teams all lost again. San Jose State managed to pass up UCLA and Nebraska in the race to the bottom, but UTEP reigns supreme as the only 0-6 team and holds #129 for another week.

1	Notre Dame	6-0
2	Clemson	6-0
3	Georgia	6-0
4	Alabama	6-0
5	Ohio State	6-0
6	LSU	5-1
7	Cincinnati	6-0
8	NC State	5-0
9	Florida	5-1
10	Kentucky	5-1
11	Hawai'i	6-1
12	South Florida	5-0
13	Oklahoma	5-1
14	Texas	5-1
15	Washington	5-1
16	Michigan	5-1
17	West Virginia	5-0
18	Miami	5-1
19	UCF	5-0
20	Troy	5-1
21	Washington State	5-1
22	Stanford	4-2
23	Colorado	5-0
24	North Texas	5-1
25	Buffalo	5-1
26	Duke	4-1
27	San Diego State	4-1
28	Iowa	4-1
29	Penn State	4-1
30	Mississippi State	4-2
31	Texas A&M	4-2
32	Auburn	4-2
33	Syracuse	4-2
34	Baylor	4-2
35	UAB	4-1
36	Georgia Southern	4-1
37	Wisconsin	4-1
38	Ole Miss	4-2
39	Indiana	4-2
40	Fresno State	4-1
41	Western Michigan	4-2
42	Boston College	4-2
43	Oregon	4-1
44	Utah State	4-1
45	Oklahoma State	4-2
46	Army	3-2
47	South Carolina	3-2
48	Utah	3-2
49	Coastal Carolina	3-2
50	Houston	4-1
51	USC	3-2
52	BYU	3-3
53	Memphis	4-2
54	Texas Tech	3-2
55	Vanderbilt	3-3
56	Boise State	3-2
57	Wake Forest	3-3
58	Maryland	3-2
59	TCU	3-2
60	Louisiana Tech	3-2
61	California	3-2
62	Middle Tennessee	3-2
63	Virginia	3-2
64	Minnesota	3-2
65	Arizona State	3-3
66	Virginia Tech	3-2
67	Arkansas State	3-2
68	Michigan State	3-2
69	Pittsburgh	3-3
70	Missouri	3-2
71	Georgia Tech	3-3
72	Florida State	3-3
73	Illinois	3-2
74	Temple	3-3
75	Marshall	3-2
76	Appalachian State	3-1
77	Florida Atlantic	3-3
78	Toledo	3-2
79	New Mexico	3-2
80	Ohio	3-2
81	Florida Intl	3-2
82	Northern Illinois	3-3
83	Nevada	3-3
84	Arizona	3-3
85	Tulane	2-4
86	Tennessee	2-3
87	Georgia State	2-4
88	Iowa State	2-3
89	Kansas State	2-4
90	UTSA	3-3
91	Wyoming	2-4
92	Northwestern	2-3
93	Air Force	2-3
94	Eastern Michigan	2-4
95	SMU	2-4
96	Louisiana	2-3
97	Southern Mississippi	2-2
98	UL Monroe	2-4
99	Colorado State	2-4
100	East Carolina	2-3
101	Navy	2-3
102	Kansas	2-4
103	UMass	2-5
104	Miami (OH)	2-4
105	Akron	2-2
106	Purdue	2-3
107	UNLV	2-3
108	Louisville	2-4
109	Ball State	2-4
T-110	Charlotte	2-3
T-110	New Mexico State	2-4
112	UConn	1-5
113	North Carolina	1-3
114	Tulsa	1-4
115	Arkansas	1-5
116	Central Michigan	1-5
117	Rutgers	1-5
118	Rice	1-5
119	Oregon State	1-5
120	South Alabama	1-5
121	Western Kentucky	1-4
122	UCLA	0-5
123	Bowling Green	1-5
124	Kent State	1-5
125	Old Dominion	1-5
126	Nebraska	0-5
127	San Jose State	0-5
128	Texas State	1-4
129	UTEP	0-6

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame

2018 World Series Projection, October 7

Houston over Los Angeles

Division Series
CLE 0-2 HOU
NYY 1-1 BOS
ATL 0-2 LAD
COL 0-2 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	92.47	57.90	39.24
BOS	0.6382	54.37	22.52	13.19
LAD	0.6265	91.56	59.45	25.49
NYY	0.6108	45.63	16.14	8.45
CLE	0.6074	7.53	3.44	1.78
ATL	0.5672	8.44	4.38	1.33
MIL	0.5627	90.36	33.39	9.89
COL	0.5215	9.64	2.78	0.62

New York evened the series with Boston, but Houston took a 2-0 lead to become even more favored to win the AL. Both NLDS resume today, with game 3 for each.

2018-10-06

2018 World Series Projection, October 6

Houston over Los Angeles

Division Series
CLE 0-1 HOU
NYY 0-1 BOS
ATL 0-2 LAD
COL 0-2 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	79.43	48.84	33.10
BOS	0.6382	72.99	31.85	18.65
LAD	0.6265	91.56	59.45	26.03
NYY	0.6108	27.01	10.14	5.31
CLE	0.6074	20.57	9.17	4.73
ATL	0.5672	8.44	4.38	1.37
MIL	0.5627	90.36	33.39	10.15
COL	0.5215	9.64	2.78	0.64

All the favorites won, which means the overall projection won't change, it'll just get stronger. For example, yesterday I showed about a 1 in 5 shot of the Houston-LA matchup, and today it's up to almost 1 in 3.

2018-10-05

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 5, Thursday

Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore

New England is clawing their way back, now up to 3-2 with their win over Indianapolis. Indy is down to about a 6% chance of making the playoffs, down from 13%, while New England went from 49% to 64%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	4-0	0.601	83.47	92.22	79.81	46.38	26.38	14.77
BAL	3-1	0.594	53.83	77.53	59.93	34.22	19.32	10.50
CHI	3-1	0.584	63.90	81.66	63.71	35.34	19.09	10.35
JAC	3-1	0.575	55.69	75.14	57.08	31.24	16.84	8.82
KC	4-0	0.542	73.82	83.43	64.46	32.97	16.52	8.12
WAS	2-1	0.548	50.25	64.14	45.16	22.81	11.30	5.73
NE	3-2	0.548	50.67	63.79	42.63	21.77	11.04	5.49
CIN	3-1	0.521	34.49	60.45	40.18	19.30	9.28	4.36
NO	3-1	0.523	41.94	59.25	39.00	18.57	8.72	4.20
CAR	2-1	0.524	34.34	51.98	33.58	15.94	7.48	3.61
TEN	3-1	0.505	35.79	54.87	34.63	16.14	7.50	3.41
GB	2-1-1	0.519	24.85	51.67	31.88	14.99	7.03	3.36
MIA	3-1	0.482	34.81	52.67	31.92	14.08	6.18	2.67
SEA	2-2	0.509	12.52	37.82	21.46	9.76	4.52	2.11
PHI	2-2	0.502	23.63	35.51	20.54	9.26	4.17	1.92
LAC	2-2	0.485	11.13	28.17	15.44	6.84	3.03	1.32
DAL	2-2	0.474	20.04	29.57	15.81	6.66	2.81	1.22
DEN	2-2	0.473	10.58	24.11	12.58	5.41	2.33	0.99
TB	2-2	0.460	14.96	26.05	13.61	5.53	2.26	0.95
CLE	1-2-1	0.496	6.94	17.67	9.74	4.45	2.04	0.91
NYJ	1-3	0.500	10.97	16.61	8.75	3.99	1.83	0.82
ATL	1-3	0.490	8.76	17.43	9.26	4.02	1.77	0.79
MIN	1-2-1	0.463	6.19	16.47	8.32	3.42	1.42	0.60
PIT	1-2-1	0.476	4.74	13.70	7.15	3.11	1.36	0.58
SF	1-3	0.469	3.80	14.06	7.03	2.92	1.24	0.53
HOU	1-3	0.478	5.25	11.49	5.92	2.59	1.14	0.49
DET	1-3	0.464	5.06	10.75	5.41	2.24	0.94	0.40
NYG	1-3	0.452	6.07	10.43	5.05	2.01	0.81	0.33
OAK	1-3	0.457	4.47	9.58	4.72	1.96	0.82	0.33
IND	1-4	0.463	3.27	5.96	2.87	1.21	0.52	0.21
BUF	1-3	0.398	3.56	4.83	2.01	0.72	0.26	0.09
ARI	0-4	0.389	0.21	0.98	0.37	0.12	0.04	0.02

2018 World Series Projection, October 5

Houston over Los Angeles

Division Series
CLE 0-0 HOU
NYY 0-0 BOS
ATL 0-1 LAD
COL 0-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	64.35	40.25	27.81
BOS	0.6382	55.46	25.62	15.38
LAD	0.6265	77.35	51.20	23.36
NYY	0.6108	44.54	17.84	9.62
CLE	0.6074	35.65	16.29	8.66
ATL	0.5672	22.65	12.06	3.97
MIL	0.5627	74.70	29.00	9.30
COL	0.5215	25.30	7.74	1.90

Both home teams won game 1 of each NLDS. That means the projection didn't change too much because the expected happened. LA is now over the 50% mark for their chances to make it to the World Series.

As a reminder, just like every year, I'll be entering Collector's Crack's Almost the Easiest World Series Contest on the Web, and you should too! Go pick the winner, loser, total number of games played, and total home runs hit in the World Series. The deadline is tomorrow, so make sure to get a pick in soon.

2018-10-04

2018 World Series Projection, October 4

Houston over Los Angeles

Division Series
CLE 0-0 HOU
NYY 0-0 BOS
ATL 0-0 LAD
COL 0-0 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	64.35	40.25	28.43
BOS	0.6382	55.46	25.62	15.83
LAD	0.6265	61.40	41.48	18.93
NYY	0.6108	44.54	17.84	9.94
CLE	0.6074	35.65	16.29	8.95
ATL	0.5672	38.60	21.15	6.97
MIL	0.5627	57.74	23.63	7.58
COL	0.5215	42.26	13.74	3.38

It didn't really occur to me until just now that the projection I've had since the playoffs began is a repeat of last year's World Series. We've also got the same 4 ALDS teams, though the opponents have swapped. The only repeat NLDS team is LA, while Colorado was in the Wildcard game last year as well as this year, though they lost last year.

2018-10-03

2018 World Series Projection, October 3

Houston over Los Angeles

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-0 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

Team	Strength	LDS	LCS	WS	Win
HOU	0.6792	100.00	64.35	40.76	28.79
BOS	0.6382	100.00	57.63	26.62	16.45
LAD	0.6265	100.00	61.40	41.48	19.01
NYY	0.6108	52.49	23.38	9.36	5.22
CLE	0.6074	100.00	35.65	16.61	9.13
OAK	0.5869	47.51	19.00	6.65	3.35
ATL	0.5672	100.00	38.60	21.15	7.01
MIL	0.5627	100.00	57.74	23.63	7.63
COL	0.5215	100.00	42.26	13.74	3.41

It took 13 innings, but Colorado advanced out of the wildcard game. I give them a 42% chance of beating Milwaukee in the NLDS, but as I always want to point out, that doesn't take into account the depletion of Colorado's bullpen and using a starter while Milwaukee had a day off. At least both teams had to play in a division-settling game 163, so Milwaukee's starters are not completely rested.

Tonight, rumor has it Oakland is going with a bullpen game. I really hope MLB doesn't panic and mess with the roster rules to prevent this in the future. I say they should let teams try unconventional strategies within the rules.

2018-10-02

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 4, Final

Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore

Kansas City, now the only undefeated AFC team at 4-0, is making a run at Baltimore for the conference favorite, but can't quite match Baltimore's strength. Interestingly, KC has a better chance of making the playoffs, but is more likely to lose before the Super Bowl.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	4-0	0.601	83.47	92.20	79.75	46.33	26.35	14.83
BAL	3-1	0.594	53.74	77.84	60.72	34.93	19.87	10.79
CHI	3-1	0.584	63.94	81.85	63.93	35.47	19.16	10.44
JAC	3-1	0.574	53.54	73.83	56.41	31.10	16.88	8.84
KC	4-0	0.542	74.14	83.87	65.65	33.89	17.10	8.41
WAS	2-1	0.548	50.42	64.16	45.14	22.80	11.30	5.76
CIN	3-1	0.520	34.48	61.16	41.23	19.95	9.66	4.54
NO	3-1	0.523	41.93	59.19	38.95	18.54	8.71	4.22
CAR	2-1	0.523	34.33	51.91	33.51	15.91	7.46	3.62
TEN	3-1	0.505	34.70	54.31	34.71	16.30	7.62	3.47
GB	2-1-1	0.519	24.88	52.13	32.20	15.14	7.10	3.41
NE	2-2	0.523	38.78	48.92	30.06	14.57	7.03	3.32
MIA	3-1	0.482	42.65	55.78	34.27	15.21	6.70	2.90
SEA	2-2	0.509	12.52	37.73	21.40	9.73	4.50	2.12
PHI	2-2	0.502	23.76	35.57	20.56	9.27	4.17	1.94
LAC	2-2	0.485	11.03	28.58	15.90	7.11	3.17	1.38
DAL	2-2	0.474	19.83	29.17	15.57	6.56	2.77	1.21
DEN	2-2	0.473	10.48	24.48	12.99	5.63	2.44	1.03
TB	2-2	0.460	14.97	26.01	13.57	5.52	2.25	0.95
CLE	1-2-1	0.496	6.92	17.93	10.03	4.61	2.13	0.95
NYJ	1-3	0.500	13.84	18.91	9.99	4.57	2.10	0.95
ATL	1-3	0.490	8.76	17.40	9.24	4.01	1.76	0.80
IND	1-3	0.488	6.75	13.33	7.29	3.30	1.49	0.65
PIT	1-2-1	0.476	4.85	14.23	7.53	3.30	1.46	0.62
MIN	1-2-1	0.463	6.21	16.75	8.47	3.49	1.45	0.61
SF	1-3	0.469	3.81	14.02	7.01	2.91	1.24	0.53
HOU	1-3	0.478	5.01	11.36	5.97	2.64	1.17	0.50
DET	1-3	0.464	4.96	10.67	5.36	2.22	0.93	0.40
OAK	1-3	0.457	4.35	9.64	4.82	2.02	0.85	0.35
NYG	1-3	0.452	6.00	10.26	4.96	1.98	0.80	0.33
BUF	1-3	0.398	4.73	5.86	2.43	0.87	0.31	0.11
ARI	0-4	0.389	0.21	0.98	0.37	0.12	0.04	0.02