Superbowl LI Projection, Week 8, Sunday

New England over Dallas

New England got two more mentions in my milestones board below, for being the first to cross a 99% playoff probability and first to a 20% Championship probability. And Dallas took over the NFC lead for now, though Minnnesota is yet to play on Monday night. They are very favored to win that game, though, so it may take a blowout to take back the NFC lead.

I've been watching a lot of baseball lately, and I guess less football, because I was totally unaware there was another London game this week. I turned on the TV somtime in the morning, and saw game action going on. I figured it was highlights, but after about 30 seconds of no dramatic action, I realized they were live. The result, as you may already know, was a tie. I bet it's been a long time since the NFL has seen ties in consecutive weeks, and it may have never happened since the advent of overtime. It should simplify the playoff pictures a little bit, since fewer tiebreakers will need to be invoked unless 2 or more of the NFC teams with ties are involved. In the AFC, Cincinnati won't be tied in the standings with anyone unless there is yet another tie game, though they're not quite in playoff position for that to matter.

In city of Cleveland news, they've got a 63.02% chance of winning the World Series, and a 3.53% chance of having an 0-16 football team, for a total 2.22% chance of the rare "Two Championships and an 0-fer" trifecta.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	7-1	0.658	97.13	99.21	97.32	60.87	36.64	21.22
PHI	4-3	0.623	15.51	59.50	39.72	21.63	11.94	6.28
DEN	6-2	0.622	48.42	86.31	70.56	40.55	21.36	11.55
DAL	6-1	0.610	74.92	94.14	82.32	45.69	24.63	12.63
MIN	5-1	0.606	80.81	91.88	79.55	44.02	23.32	11.87
ARI	3-4-1	0.588	31.01	39.96	23.41	11.80	6.00	2.94
BUF	4-4	0.576	1.64	35.54	21.17	9.59	4.70	2.32
KC	5-2	0.561	29.88	71.12	50.13	24.39	11.14	5.33
SEA	4-2-1	0.559	61.73	68.89	42.87	20.54	9.79	4.52
ATL	5-3	0.547	69.07	74.58	46.62	21.59	9.95	4.47
PIT	4-3	0.541	65.95	69.35	39.23	17.55	7.74	3.54
GB	4-3	0.532	14.04	44.03	24.90	11.15	5.00	2.17
SD	3-5	0.522	0.35	9.57	5.12	2.02	0.88	0.39
OAK	6-2	0.521	21.35	65.70	43.26	18.80	7.86	3.45
TEN	4-4	0.498	27.65	34.21	17.03	6.72	2.70	1.12
WAS	4-3-1	0.494	3.48	26.16	12.97	5.26	2.18	0.87
CAR	2-5	0.492	3.94	6.19	2.80	1.12	0.46	0.18
DET	4-4	0.486	5.06	20.00	10.13	4.08	1.65	0.65
BAL	3-4	0.486	19.73	22.30	10.33	3.96	1.56	0.63
NYG	4-3	0.481	6.09	28.00	14.10	5.58	2.24	0.86
NO	3-4	0.478	16.00	21.99	10.42	4.06	1.61	0.62
MIA	3-4	0.472	1.02	11.01	5.54	2.00	0.78	0.30
IND	3-5	0.463	10.01	11.95	5.11	1.80	0.67	0.25
CIN	3-4-1	0.454	14.28	16.50	6.91	2.43	0.89	0.33
TB	3-4	0.431	10.99	14.15	5.92	2.05	0.72	0.25
HOU	5-3	0.428	58.77	61.51	26.19	8.69	2.89	1.01
LA	3-4	0.422	6.94	9.87	4.05	1.38	0.48	0.16
JAC	2-5	0.396	3.57	3.85	1.36	0.40	0.13	0.04
NYJ	3-5	0.386	0.22	1.82	0.74	0.22	0.07	0.02
SF	1-6	0.378	0.32	0.39	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00
CHI	1-6	0.378	0.08	0.28	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-8	0.363	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota

2016 World Series Projection, October 31

Cleveland over Chicago

World Series
CHC 2-3 CLE

League Championship Series
TOR 1-4 CLE
LAD 2-4 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS


Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	Win
CHC	0.6682	36.98
CLE	0.5648	63.02

Last night I started to believe in streaks and pretty much assumed Cleveland was the winner when they went up 1-0. Chicago ultimately scored 3 and held on to win 3-2. So now we're in for some November baseball. I give Cleveland a 63% chance of winning game 6 or 7.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

Despite their bye week, Alabama held on to the #1 spot. That was certainly helped by having a very late bye, so there are very few teams that have even played 9 games, and none that are 9-0. 3 more teams suffered their first loss this week, leaving us just 5 undefeated. Nebraska lost to also-undefeated Washington in overtime. West Virginia lost to Oklahoma State, who has already lost 2 games. Boise State lost to Wyoming, who almost cracks my top 25, but will almost certainly be enough to keep them out of the playoff.

After a rough loss to Middle Tennessee last week, local Mizzou honks figured maybe they could win the last 3 of their string of 4 winnable games. They did not. They fall to 2-6 and #112.

At the bottom, Florida Atlantic lost again to hold on tight to #128. They may have a stranglehold on that position, because I have them about 1000 points behind #127, but just 23,000 separates the from #1 Alabama.

1	Alabama	8-0
2	Clemson	8-0
3	Michigan	8-0
4	Western Michigan	8-0
5	Washington	8-0
6	Texas A&M	7-1
7	Ohio State	7-1
8	Boise State	7-1
9	Houston	7-2
10	Louisville	7-1
11	Nebraska	7-1
12	Utah	7-2
13	South Florida	7-2
14	Penn State	6-2
15	Wisconsin	6-2
16	West Virginia	6-1
17	San Diego State	7-1
18	Virginia Tech	6-2
19	Washington State	6-2
20	Auburn	6-2
21	North Carolina	6-2
22	Temple	6-3
23	Tulsa	6-2
24	Colorado	6-2
25	Florida	6-1
26	Wyoming	6-2
27	Oklahoma	6-2
28	Appalachian State	6-2
29	Minnesota	6-2
30	Tennessee	5-3
31	Oklahoma State	6-2
32	Troy	6-1
33	Florida State	5-3
34	Toledo	6-2
35	Western Kentucky	6-3
36	Navy	5-2
37	Middle Tennessee	6-2
38	USC	5-3
39	LSU	5-2
40	Pittsburgh	5-3
41	Baylor	6-1
42	Stanford	5-3
43	Arkansas	5-3
44	Louisiana Tech	6-3
45	Georgia Tech	5-3
46	Ohio	6-3
47	Kentucky	5-3
48	Arizona State	5-4
49	Iowa	5-3
50	Wake Forest	5-3
51	Kansas State	5-3
52	Memphis	5-3
53	New Mexico	5-3
54	Maryland	5-3
55	Old Dominion	5-3
56	Akron	5-4
57	Central Michigan	5-4
58	Air Force	5-3
59	SMU	4-4
60	Eastern Michigan	5-4
61	Vanderbilt	4-4
62	Southern Mississippi	5-3
63	Northwestern	4-4
64	Colorado State	4-4
65	Syracuse	4-4
66	Army	5-3
67	California	4-4
68	BYU	4-4
69	Texas Tech	4-4
70	Georgia	4-4
71	NC State	4-4
72	UCF	4-4
73	Miami	4-4
74	Indiana	4-4
75	Cincinnati	4-4
76	South Carolina	4-4
77	TCU	4-4
78	Boston College	4-4
79	Idaho	4-4
80	Texas	4-4
81	South Alabama	4-4
82	Georgia Southern	4-4
83	Ole Miss	3-5
84	North Texas	4-4
85	Hawai'i	4-5
86	Texas San Antonio	4-4
87	Oregon	3-5
88	UCLA	3-5
89	Arkansas State	3-4
90	Mississippi State	3-5
91	Utah State	3-5
92	Duke	3-5
93	Ball State	4-4
94	Tulane	3-5
94	Kent State	3-6
96	Louisiana Lafayette	3-4
97	Connecticut	3-6
98	East Carolina	3-5
99	Purdue	3-5
100	Miami (OH)	3-6
101	Oregon State	2-6
102	Notre Dame	3-5
103	Charlotte	3-5
104	San Jose State	3-6
105	Northern Illinois	2-6
106	Arizona	2-6
107	Illinois	2-6
108	Nevada	3-5
109	Rutgers	2-6
110	Virginia	2-6
111	UNLV	3-6
112	Missouri	2-6
113	Florida Intl	3-6
114	Michigan State	2-6
115	New Mexico State	2-6
116	Georgia State	2-6
117	Louisiana Monroe	2-6
118	Texas State	2-5
119	UTEP	2-6
120	Buffalo	2-6
121	Marshall	2-6
122	Massachusetts	2-7
123	Bowling Green	1-7
124	Kansas	1-7
125	Rice	1-7
126	Iowa State	1-7
127	Fresno State	1-8
128	Florida Atlantic	1-7

2016 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama

2016 World Series Projection, October 30

Cleveland over Chicago

World Series
CHC 1-3 CLE

League Championship Series
TOR 1-4 CLE
LAD 2-4 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS


Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	Win
CHC	0.6682	22.49
CLE	0.5648	77.51

Fox showed an interesting stat on screen last night, that got me thinking entirely too much. Once the game was pretty much over, they said that the last 10 World Series teams to go up 3-1 had finished the job. They also helpfully pointed out the last teams to fail from that position was the 1985 St. Louis Cardinals. The first thing that struck me was that that means out of the 29 series (1994 was a strike year, remember) from 1986-2015, that means that 19 of them were either 2-2 after 4 games, or sweeps. That seemed disproportionate to me if the teams are evenly matched. 29 is a fairly small sample size, so I wrote it off to that in my head. Of course, when I worked it out, and there's actually a 50% chance of a series going to 3-1 if the teams are perfectly evenly matched, and it only goes down from there. So really the expected number of series that reach 3-1 would be expected to be at most 14 in that time period, so 10 is certainly reasonable.

I'll be rooting for Cleveland to finish off the series tonight, first because I'm rooting for Cleveland, but secondarily because no one really wants to see the World Series in November on a regular basis, right?

2016 World Series Projection, October 29

Cleveland over Chicago

World Series
CHC 1-2 CLE

League Championship Series
TOR 1-4 CLE
LAD 2-4 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS


Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	Win
CHC	0.6682	48.92
CLE	0.5648	51.08

These World Series games run a little past my normal bedtime, so I always find myself checking the results in the morning even though I watched the whole thing, just to make sure I didn't dream the end. I think it stems from the time I dreamed the Blues scored something like 6 goals to overcome the Maple Leafs in an elimination game, then was re-disappointed in the morning when I saw the real score again. Anyway, I indeed saw Cleveland hang on for dear life to a 1-0 lead. It really felt like Chicago was going to win the game, even though they never broke a 36% chance of winning after Cleveland scored, according to the FanGraphs tracker. Cleveland has regained the homefield advantage, but I don't think they'll want to wait for Game 6 and 7 to win again. They're now just slightly favored in the series, about 51-49.

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 8, Thursday

New England over Minnesota

We had another brutal Thursday night matchup between teams with losing records, though Tennessee at least came out of the game at .500. Jacksonville fell to 2-5. Naturally, nothing changes significantly around the top, and the same teams held on to the AFC and NFC leads. It's hard to believe this season is already at Week 8. That feels like halfway in a 16 game season, but we won't really be halfway done with the season until some of the early games finish in Sunday of Week 9, due to byes.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	6-1	0.638	81.19	96.55	89.75	53.99	31.96	17.76
PHI	4-2	0.630	34.79	66.54	50.00	28.15	15.70	8.64
ARI	3-3-1	0.610	34.55	50.14	32.57	17.33	9.21	4.87
BUF	4-3	0.607	17.00	58.15	40.65	21.38	11.57	6.05
DEN	5-2	0.607	46.92	77.06	62.95	35.53	18.68	9.76
MIN	5-1	0.606	73.07	88.04	73.87	40.29	21.25	11.16
DAL	5-1	0.600	52.36	81.77	64.52	34.24	17.90	9.28
SEA	4-1-1	0.574	61.93	73.84	51.74	25.82	12.68	6.25
ATL	4-3	0.545	62.04	65.17	36.85	16.87	7.72	3.58
PIT	4-3	0.540	64.67	68.58	40.84	19.19	8.75	3.98
GB	4-2	0.536	18.24	49.65	29.74	13.43	6.05	2.75
SD	3-4	0.535	5.61	22.29	13.52	6.15	2.79	1.26
KC	4-2	0.528	24.84	53.29	35.94	16.72	7.35	3.25
OAK	5-2	0.511	22.63	55.90	37.50	16.61	7.03	2.99
DET	4-3	0.500	8.63	30.50	16.38	6.80	2.84	1.19
TEN	4-4	0.498	32.36	38.08	19.58	8.17	3.39	1.40
WAS	4-3	0.494	6.26	22.90	11.99	4.92	2.03	0.84
IND	3-4	0.490	23.27	27.60	13.60	5.52	2.25	0.91
BAL	3-4	0.486	20.97	23.98	11.51	4.69	1.91	0.77
NYG	4-3	0.481	6.59	21.49	11.01	4.39	1.76	0.71
CAR	1-5	0.475	2.54	3.08	1.30	0.50	0.19	0.08
MIA	3-4	0.472	1.62	11.84	6.10	2.34	0.95	0.37
NO	2-4	0.471	12.47	14.52	6.37	2.44	0.94	0.37
CIN	3-4	0.453	14.23	17.66	7.70	2.87	1.08	0.40
TB	3-3	0.441	22.95	25.87	11.00	3.91	1.40	0.51
LA	3-4	0.422	3.40	6.16	2.55	0.87	0.30	0.11
HOU	4-3	0.415	40.43	43.51	18.36	6.21	2.08	0.70
JAC	2-5	0.397	3.94	4.24	1.51	0.48	0.16	0.05
NYJ	2-5	0.380	0.19	1.12	0.46	0.14	0.04	0.01
SF	1-6	0.378	0.11	0.16	0.05	0.02	0.00	0.00
CHI	1-6	0.378	0.05	0.17	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-7	0.368	0.14	0.14	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota

2016 World Series Projection, October 27

Chicago over Cleveland

World Series
CHC 1-1 CLE

League Championship Series
TOR 1-4 CLE
LAD 2-4 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS


Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	Win
CHC	0.6682	69.65
CLE	0.5648	30.35

Chicago's back to a sizable lead, but not as big as the start of the series. My knee jerk intuition is that that feels wrong; that they are closer to the end of the series, and still even with the other team, and thus should be getting closer to 100%. But if you consider that a longer series always favors a stronger team, and we've gone from a 7-game to a 5-game series now, it makes more sense. Also at the start of the series we'd expect Chicago to do a little better than 1-1 in the first 2 games on average, so again they are slightly worse off than previously expected. Of course you can only win or lose games in discrete chunks, necessitating that the numbers jump around a bit.

2016 World Series Projection, October 26

Chicago over Cleveland

World Series
CHC 0-1 CLE

League Championship Series
TOR 1-4 CLE
LAD 2-4 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS


Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	Win
CHC	0.6682	56.11
CLE	0.5648	43.89

Even down by 1 game, Chicago is still favored. We'll see what the #2 starters have for each team tonight, though there could be some oddities due to rain in the forecast. From what I can tell, they bumped the start time earlier by 1 hour, but the rain is supposed to start just about 2 hours after that. We might be in for a long night or a suspended game, because I'm pretty sure they won't call it after 6 innings in the World Series.

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 7, Final

New England over Minnesota

Denver over Houston didn't shake things up too much, but made Denver stronger and Houston weaker by a few places each. Denver is now the second most likely AFC representative in the Superbowl, and Houston is pretty far down the list despite their winning record. That's because they've got a negative point differential, which is related to what my strength is measured on.

In case you're curious, the lowest Superbowl chances obviously belong to one of the 3 teams at the bottom displaying a 0.00, and the least likely of all is Cleveland, with an 0.001214% chance, which is just about 1 in 823. They're not completely out, but since a 9-7 team can and does miss the playoffs in many years, they're certainly not in control of their own destiny.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	6-1	0.638	81.36	96.58	90.02	54.28	32.16	17.87
PHI	4-2	0.630	34.79	66.55	50.01	28.16	15.70	8.64
ARI	3-3-1	0.610	34.55	50.12	32.57	17.34	9.21	4.87
BUF	4-3	0.606	16.82	58.14	40.95	21.56	11.67	6.10
DEN	5-2	0.606	46.93	77.41	63.62	36.00	18.94	9.90
MIN	5-1	0.606	72.63	87.80	73.52	40.09	21.15	11.11
DAL	5-1	0.600	52.36	81.76	64.53	34.25	17.91	9.28
SEA	4-1-1	0.574	61.93	73.83	51.76	25.84	12.70	6.25
ATL	4-3	0.545	62.03	65.15	36.85	16.87	7.72	3.58
PIT	4-3	0.540	64.64	68.64	41.07	19.33	8.83	4.02
GB	4-2	0.536	18.78	50.37	30.27	13.67	6.16	2.80
SD	3-4	0.535	5.73	23.09	14.14	6.44	2.93	1.32
KC	4-2	0.528	24.85	53.95	36.69	17.10	7.52	3.33
OAK	5-2	0.511	22.50	56.14	37.90	16.82	7.12	3.04
DET	4-3	0.500	8.53	30.04	16.13	6.70	2.79	1.17
WAS	4-3	0.494	6.27	22.92	12.01	4.93	2.04	0.84
IND	3-4	0.490	25.32	29.33	14.40	5.85	2.38	0.97
BAL	3-4	0.486	20.99	24.11	11.64	4.75	1.94	0.78
NYG	4-3	0.481	6.59	21.47	11.01	4.39	1.76	0.71
CAR	1-5	0.475	2.54	3.08	1.30	0.50	0.19	0.08
MIA	3-4	0.472	1.63	12.12	6.32	2.43	0.98	0.38
NO	2-4	0.471	12.48	14.53	6.37	2.44	0.94	0.37
TEN	3-4	0.468	19.88	23.57	11.10	4.30	1.67	0.64
CIN	3-4	0.453	14.23	17.73	7.78	2.90	1.10	0.41
TB	3-3	0.441	22.95	25.87	11.00	3.92	1.40	0.51
LA	3-4	0.422	3.41	6.18	2.56	0.88	0.31	0.11
JAC	2-4	0.418	11.42	12.05	4.66	1.58	0.54	0.18
HOU	4-3	0.415	43.38	45.86	19.19	6.49	2.18	0.73
NYJ	2-5	0.380	0.19	1.15	0.47	0.14	0.05	0.01
SF	1-6	0.378	0.11	0.16	0.05	0.02	0.00	0.00
CHI	1-6	0.378	0.06	0.19	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-7	0.368	0.14	0.14	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 7, Sunday

New England over Minnesota

Philadelphia beat Minnesota, knocking them below Arizona by strength, but Minnesota is still the NFC favorite due to their 1 game lead on Philadelphia, and the fact that Dallas is actually 1 game ahead in the NFC East.

Speaking of Arizona, how about that tie? I didn't actually turn the game on until what must have been right after Seattle's field goal with 4 minutes to play, and saw the 3-3 tie. I thought to myself, I have to watch this, we might see a tie. I like unusual things I guess. So I watched the rest of the game, rooting for a tie the whole time. I may be the only guy in the country who cheered for both missed field goals in overtime. Mike Tirico then let us know that this was the first touchdown-free tie since 1972, which had the then-St. Louis Cardinals tie 6-6 against Philadelphia. Back then there wasn't yet overtime in the NFL, so that game was only 60 minutes.

In Cleveland news, how cool will it be for them to hold championships in two major sports while having an 0-16 football team? They've already got basketball, and I give the football team a 1.76% shot of helping that goal. Baseball's a bit more in the likely range, at 27.43% at my last projection. Overall that's just a 0.48% shot, assuming those are two uncorrelated weighted random variables.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	6-1	0.638	81.81	96.93	90.19	54.81	33.42	18.57
PHI	4-2	0.630	34.79	66.72	50.13	28.22	15.74	8.80
ARI	3-3-1	0.610	34.55	50.31	32.70	17.40	9.24	4.97
BUF	4-3	0.607	16.43	59.04	40.90	21.83	12.13	6.34
MIN	5-1	0.606	73.13	87.96	73.71	40.19	21.20	11.33
DAL	5-1	0.600	52.36	81.89	64.62	34.28	17.93	9.46
SEA	4-1-1	0.574	61.93	73.95	51.86	25.88	12.71	6.38
DEN	4-2	0.569	34.00	62.52	46.97	24.61	12.08	5.85
ATL	4-3	0.545	61.82	64.99	36.76	16.83	7.70	3.64
PIT	4-3	0.540	64.87	69.06	42.08	20.52	9.50	4.33
GB	4-2	0.536	18.43	49.66	29.75	13.43	6.05	2.81
SD	3-4	0.535	7.22	24.31	14.85	6.94	3.21	1.44
KC	4-2	0.528	31.24	57.00	38.71	18.54	8.27	3.67
OAK	5-2	0.511	27.55	58.59	39.92	18.25	7.84	3.34
DET	4-3	0.500	8.38	29.44	15.78	6.56	2.73	1.17
WAS	4-3	0.494	6.26	23.08	12.08	4.95	2.05	0.87
IND	3-4	0.490	18.50	24.64	12.58	5.27	2.19	0.89
BAL	3-4	0.486	21.07	24.48	11.96	5.06	2.11	0.85
NYG	4-3	0.481	6.59	21.63	11.09	4.42	1.77	0.73
CAR	1-5	0.475	2.52	3.07	1.29	0.50	0.19	0.08
MIA	3-4	0.472	1.57	12.62	6.43	2.52	1.05	0.41
NO	2-4	0.471	12.78	14.92	6.55	2.51	0.97	0.39
TEN	3-4	0.468	14.87	20.47	9.99	3.98	1.57	0.61
HOU	4-2	0.455	58.16	62.03	33.27	13.15	4.94	1.84
CIN	3-4	0.453	13.91	17.47	7.81	3.03	1.17	0.43
TB	3-3	0.441	22.87	25.83	10.99	3.91	1.40	0.52
LA	3-4	0.422	3.40	6.21	2.57	0.88	0.31	0.11
JAC	2-4	0.418	8.48	9.44	3.79	1.32	0.46	0.16
NYJ	2-5	0.380	0.18	1.24	0.50	0.16	0.05	0.02
SF	1-6	0.378	0.11	0.16	0.05	0.02	0.00	0.00
CHI	1-6	0.378	0.06	0.19	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-7	0.368	0.14	0.15	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

Alabama was a very close #2 last week, and easily overtook Clemson during their bye week with a win over Texas A&M, who you'll recall have been #1 a few weeks this year, and were #4 last week. The other notable loss near the top was 6-0 #6 Ohio State, losing to #32 Penn State. There are now 9 undefeated teams. Notice the lowest 2 are both Big 12 teams, and that's because they have only played 6 games instead of 7 or 8 like many other schools. I guess that's because without a title game, the Big 12 can afford an extra bye week in their season. This raises an interesting question to me, which is whether my system has an unintentional anti-Big 12 bias. Also bias against any conference without a title game. I'm not really sure how I'd objectively audit such a thing, but maybe I could compare my final week rankings against the polls in the years since the Big 12 dropped to 10 teams.

All the local media I heard said that Missouri's win this weekend for homecoming was pretty much a given, and they had a decent shot at 4 wins in a row to get bowl eligible before their last two games that would be likely losses. Well, they lost to Middle Tennessee, who is all the way up to #46 in the rankings, no thanks to Missouri, who is now a terrible opponent to have in your schedule, all the way down at #103

Only slightly further down the tableau, Rice got their first win and escaped the bottom spot. It was an FCS game, but everyone's got at least one of those (I think so at least, I didn't verify that fact). Last week I actually spoke to a high schooler who coincidentally mentioned he was looking at Rice, and I told him (jokingly, of course), that the team was 0-6 so he shouldn't go there. Or maybe he should if he wanted to play football. Anyway, Florida Atlantic is now #128, and there are no more winless teams in the FBS.

1	Alabama	8-0
2	Western Michigan	8-0
3	Clemson	7-0
4	Michigan	7-0
5	Boise State	7-0
6	Nebraska	7-0
7	Washington	7-0
8	Utah	7-1
9	Texas A&M	6-1
10	West Virginia	6-0
11	North Carolina	6-2
12	Ohio State	6-1
13	Louisville	6-1
14	Colorado	6-2
15	Houston	6-2
16	Tennessee	5-2
17	Florida State	5-2
18	Toledo	6-1
19	Penn State	5-2
20	South Florida	6-2
21	Troy	6-1
22	Navy	5-1
23	San Diego State	6-1
24	Washington State	5-2
25	Baylor	6-0
26	Wisconsin	5-2
27	Pittsburgh	5-2
28	Auburn	5-2
29	Virginia Tech	5-2
30	Arkansas	5-3
31	LSU	5-2
32	Temple	5-3
33	Minnesota	5-2
34	Oklahoma	5-2
35	Appalachian State	5-2
36	Florida	5-1
37	Arizona State	5-3
38	Tulsa	5-2
39	Wyoming	5-2
40	Wake Forest	5-2
41	Oklahoma State	5-2
42	Central Michigan	5-3
43	Iowa	5-3
44	Maryland	5-2
45	Akron	5-3
46	Middle Tennessee	5-2
47	Western Kentucky	5-3
48	Memphis	5-2
49	USC	4-3
50	Eastern Michigan	5-3
51	Louisiana Tech	5-3
52	Stanford	4-3
53	Georgia Tech	4-3
54	Miami	4-3
55	Northwestern	4-3
56	California	4-3
57	Vanderbilt	4-4
58	Colorado State	4-4
59	Georgia	4-3
60	TCU	4-3
61	BYU	4-4
62	NC State	4-3
63	UCF	4-3
64	Ohio	5-3
65	Kentucky	4-3
66	Syracuse	4-4
67	Kansas State	4-3
68	Cincinnati	4-3
69	Idaho	4-4
70	Air Force	4-3
71	Ole Miss	3-4
72	New Mexico	4-3
73	Old Dominion	4-3
74	Georgia Southern	4-3
75	Southern Mississippi	4-3
76	SMU	3-4
77	North Texas	4-3
78	Hawai'i	4-4
79	UCLA	3-5
80	Connecticut	3-5
81	Texas Tech	3-4
82	Indiana	3-4
83	Army	4-3
84	Duke	3-4
85	Tulane	3-4
86	Utah State	3-4
87	Ball State	4-4
88	Purdue	3-4
89	South Alabama	3-4
90	Boston College	3-4
91	Louisiana Lafayette	3-4
92	South Carolina	3-4
93	Oregon State	2-5
94	Texas	3-4
95	UNLV	3-5
96	Texas San Antonio	3-4
97	Arizona	2-5
98	Arkansas State	2-4
99	Charlotte	3-5
100	Oregon	2-5
101	Illinois	2-5
102	Virginia	2-5
103	Missouri	2-5
104	Northern Illinois	2-6
105	Rutgers	2-6
106	Florida Intl	3-5
107	Georgia State	2-5
108	Nevada	3-5
109	East Carolina	2-5
110	Louisiana Monroe	2-5
111	New Mexico State	2-5
112	Mississippi State	2-5
113	Kent State	2-6
114	Michigan State	2-5
115	Marshall	2-5
116	Miami (OH)	2-6
117	Texas State	2-5
118	San Jose State	2-6
119	Notre Dame	2-5
120	UTEP	2-5
121	Bowling Green	1-7
122	Kansas	1-6
123	Iowa State	1-6
124	Rice	1-6
125	Fresno State	1-7
126	Massachusetts	1-7
127	Buffalo	1-6
128	Florida Atlantic	1-6

2016 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama

2016 World Series Projection, October 23

Chicago over Cleveland

World Series
CHC 0-0 CLE

League Championship Series
TOR 1-4 CLE
LAD 2-4 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS


Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	Win
CHC	0.6682	72.57
CLE	0.5648	27.43

My projection has been pretty stable this year. Chicago was the NL favorite every day except when they were down 2-1 in the NLCS. Cleveland has been the AL favorite since October 11, and I think that would have extended further back if not for a rain delay that had them a game behind the other ALDS. Chicago's favored by a considerable margin, but certainly not a lock to break their streak just yet. With no games for the next 3 days, both teams will be able to send out their preferred rotations, so hopefully we'll see a good series.

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 7, Thursday

New England over Minnesota

Green Bay improved their chances and Chicago fell to be the second worst team again, but the projection at the top stays the same. Minnesota about 5 percentage points off their chances of winning the NFC North, since Green Bay is in the same division, and is now just a game and a half behind. Still most of those simulations simply became wildcard berths, and as the strongest NFC team they barely lost any ground in their chances at a Superbowl appearance.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	5-1	0.618	62.57	92.71	77.98	45.14	26.25	14.14
MIN	5-0	0.616	81.71	93.18	81.78	46.23	25.39	13.98
BUF	4-2	0.611	36.21	77.19	57.49	32.04	18.17	9.66
PHI	3-2	0.606	23.14	49.48	33.88	18.09	9.60	5.19
DAL	5-1	0.600	58.77	83.06	65.83	35.58	18.68	9.98
ARI	3-3	0.598	32.62	50.88	33.66	17.57	9.17	4.88
DEN	4-2	0.569	43.77	66.22	49.34	25.88	12.95	6.33
SEA	4-1	0.565	56.91	68.98	47.84	23.56	11.42	5.71
PIT	4-2	0.561	67.65	76.31	54.34	28.14	13.87	6.67
ATL	4-2	0.550	71.44	74.77	44.59	20.85	9.73	4.71
GB	4-2	0.536	14.22	50.19	28.69	12.94	5.92	2.78
SD	2-4	0.531	6.91	18.67	10.88	5.09	2.36	1.06
KC	3-2	0.515	27.32	46.38	28.85	13.35	5.93	2.58
BAL	3-3	0.505	27.49	39.08	22.30	10.08	4.41	1.88
WAS	4-2	0.500	13.42	39.13	21.79	9.14	3.84	1.67
DET	3-3	0.494	4.03	20.05	10.08	4.14	1.73	0.74
TEN	3-3	0.484	24.78	33.63	18.02	7.60	3.15	1.28
NO	2-3	0.481	16.21	21.26	10.12	4.01	1.60	0.67
OAK	4-2	0.480	22.01	45.53	27.90	11.86	4.85	1.95
IND	2-4	0.477	8.95	13.30	6.49	2.66	1.09	0.43
CAR	1-5	0.475	2.01	2.95	1.28	0.49	0.20	0.08
NYG	3-3	0.466	4.66	14.68	7.04	2.72	1.06	0.43
MIA	2-4	0.465	1.11	6.88	3.34	1.33	0.55	0.21
HOU	4-2	0.455	51.57	57.99	31.36	12.41	4.75	1.79
JAC	2-3	0.448	14.70	17.93	8.32	3.20	1.22	0.45
LA	3-3	0.440	9.92	17.33	7.86	2.84	1.04	0.39
CIN	2-4	0.424	4.52	7.13	3.00	1.10	0.40	0.14
TB	2-3	0.414	10.34	12.86	5.12	1.71	0.58	0.20
SF	1-5	0.404	0.55	0.97	0.36	0.12	0.04	0.01
CLE	0-6	0.391	0.34	0.41	0.14	0.05	0.02	0.01
CHI	1-6	0.378	0.04	0.23	0.08	0.02	0.01	0.00
NYJ	1-5	0.374	0.12	0.64	0.24	0.08	0.02	0.01

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota

2016 World Series Projection, October 21

Chicago over Cleveland

League Championship Series
TOR 1-4 CLE
LAD 2-3 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS


Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	85.04	61.71
CLE	0.5648	100.00	30.98
LAD	0.5596	14.96	7.31

Chicago's one game away from the World Series now, and I give LA just a 15% chance of winning both remaining games. However, with Clayton Kershaw going in game 6, they've probably got a better chance of making it to game 7 than my numbers show. There are no games today, so we'll have to wait until Saturday to find out.

A Sports Card Info Bowman Inception Contest Win

I just posted one of these two weeks ago, but my contest wins were spread out a little further than that would have you believe. This contest was in early October, and the card showed up very quickly once it was done, so I thought why not go ahead and put this one up next.

2016 Bowman Inception
Rookie Autographs #RA-HOL Hector Olivera

Bowman Inception is one of those superpremium products I'll probably never purchase in the box. List price is about $100 for a box, which contains 1 pack of 5 cards. But, each of those is an autograph, and one is an autographed relic, so it's definitely full of hits. They're nice looking cards, for sure, so I might try to track down a Stephen Piscotty or Alex Reyes, who are the only Cardinals among the most common subsets, on the secondary market.

Anyway, a big thanks to Sports Card Info for the contest! There's at least one contest going every week, so go check it out.

2016 World Series Projection, October 20

Chicago over Cleveland

League Championship Series
TOR 1-4 CLE
LAD 2-2 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS


Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	66.69	48.40
CLE	0.5648	100.00	35.34
LAD	0.5596	33.31	16.27

Cleveland finished the job in the ALCS, and will go to their first World Series in 19 years, and try to win their first in 68 years. As you probably know, Chicago last won 108 years ago, and last appeared in the World Series in 1945, 71 years ago. LA's last World Series appearance and win was 28 years ago in 1988. Since the "average" team should make the World series every 15 years and win it every 30 (and even more frequently than that before the 1998 expansion from 28 teams, or the 1993 expansion from 26 teams, etc.), at least a couple droughts will be broken. The NL will have at least 2 more games, giving Cleveland a pretty good rest advantage, which their heavily-utilized bullpen can probably use.

2016 World Series Projection, October 19

Cleveland over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
TOR 1-3 CLE
LAD 2-1 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS


Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	49.81	36.19
CLE	0.5648	87.80	34.54
TOR	0.5609	12.20	4.70
LAD	0.5596	50.19	24.56

Toronto wasn't quite ready to give up yet, and won game 4 against Cleveland. The big news is that Chicago lost, and was shut out for the second game in a row. I now have them just under 50% likely to win this series. Oddly enough, they're still the most likely to win the World series, because when you consider all the permutations, they're heavily favored when they do make it.

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 6, Monday

New England over Minnesota

Arizona had a huge win over the New York Jets that really improved their strength, and their chances at making the Superbowl, more than doubling them. 3-3's still 2.5 games behind Minnesota though, and there are 2 other stronger NFC teams, so they're still just about 9.5% likely to make the big game.

The Jets have now taken over as the weakest team in the league. They're slightly better positioned to make the playoffs than 0-6 Cleveland, but would be projected to lose to them head to head.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	5-1	0.618	62.57	92.70	77.95	45.13	26.25	14.14
MIN	5-0	0.616	86.35	94.02	83.04	47.13	25.91	14.27
BUF	4-2	0.611	36.21	77.14	57.45	32.02	18.16	9.65
PHI	3-2	0.606	23.56	52.05	35.56	18.99	10.09	5.45
DAL	5-1	0.600	58.56	84.12	66.48	36.02	18.93	10.11
ARI	3-3	0.598	32.34	52.33	34.70	18.13	9.46	5.03
DEN	4-2	0.569	43.78	66.19	49.30	25.87	12.94	6.33
SEA	4-1	0.565	57.37	70.56	49.32	24.32	11.80	5.89
PIT	4-2	0.561	67.66	76.29	54.30	28.12	13.87	6.67
ATL	4-2	0.550	72.06	75.75	45.78	21.42	10.00	4.84
SD	2-4	0.531	6.91	18.62	10.85	5.08	2.36	1.06
KC	3-2	0.515	27.32	46.31	28.78	13.32	5.92	2.58
BAL	3-3	0.505	27.48	39.04	22.25	10.06	4.41	1.88
GB	3-2	0.502	8.47	33.99	17.67	7.36	3.13	1.37
WAS	4-2	0.500	13.38	41.04	22.71	9.52	4.00	1.74
DET	3-3	0.494	4.88	22.26	11.21	4.60	1.92	0.83
TEN	3-3	0.484	24.46	33.44	17.94	7.56	3.13	1.27
NO	2-3	0.481	16.02	21.83	10.48	4.15	1.66	0.69
OAK	4-2	0.480	22.00	45.46	27.84	11.83	4.84	1.94
IND	2-4	0.477	9.06	13.55	6.63	2.71	1.11	0.44
CAR	1-5	0.475	1.99	3.10	1.35	0.52	0.21	0.08
NYG	3-3	0.466	4.50	15.60	7.41	2.85	1.11	0.45
MIA	2-4	0.465	1.11	6.85	3.33	1.33	0.55	0.21
HOU	4-2	0.455	51.98	58.49	31.76	12.57	4.81	1.82
JAC	2-3	0.448	14.50	17.77	8.26	3.18	1.21	0.45
LA	3-3	0.440	9.77	18.18	8.28	2.99	1.09	0.41
CIN	2-4	0.424	4.52	7.11	2.99	1.10	0.40	0.14
TB	2-3	0.414	9.94	12.78	5.13	1.71	0.58	0.20
CHI	1-5	0.410	0.30	1.38	0.52	0.17	0.06	0.02
SF	1-5	0.404	0.52	1.02	0.38	0.12	0.04	0.01
CLE	0-6	0.391	0.34	0.41	0.14	0.05	0.02	0.01
NYJ	1-5	0.374	0.12	0.63	0.24	0.08	0.02	0.01

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota

2016 World Series Projection, October 18

Chicago over Cleveland

League Championship Series
TOR 0-3 CLE
LAD 1-1 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS


Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	70.51	51.20
CLE	0.5648	93.95	32.35
TOR	0.5609	6.05	2.04
LAD	0.5596	29.49	14.42

Historically, teams don't come back from a 3-0 deficit very much at all, and I give Toronto just a 6% chance of accomplishing it. The NLCS resumes today in LA. Chicago's probably already faced the toughest starting pitcher they'll have to, Clayton Kershaw, so the Dodgers will probably just need to hope to steal one of the next two games and send him out again on short rest. But we'll see how it plays out.

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 6, Sunday

New England over Minnesota

Pittsburgh lost a game they should have won, and New England more than doubled Cincinnati's score in a win, and we have a new AFC and Superbowl favorite. It's slightly unfair because Minnesota has only played 5 games, and thus get their strength regressed a bit further toward .500 than New England does. But, the system is the system, and maybe Minnesota loses big next week, we just don't know for sure yet.

It might be too early in the season to consider this, but might we see the second 0-16 team ever? I give Cleveland a 0.75% chance of that happening, but that's up from 0.44% on Thursday. Sitting below every other team, they've got about a 20% chance of winning 2 games or less, and about a 45% chance of 3 wins or less. Their next 2 against Cincinnati and New York  are two of their 3 easiest remaining games, so if they get to 0-8, we'll start seeing their winless chances really increasing.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	5-1	0.618	61.68	91.81	76.97	44.60	25.94	14.08
MIN	5-0	0.616	86.73	94.55	84.18	48.39	26.85	14.79
BUF	4-2	0.611	36.68	76.39	57.03	31.83	18.07	9.68
PHI	3-2	0.606	23.41	53.42	36.70	19.77	10.60	5.73
DAL	5-1	0.600	58.34	84.88	67.35	36.92	19.58	10.47
DEN	4-2	0.570	43.77	66.34	49.49	25.99	13.02	6.42
SEA	4-1	0.565	67.52	76.18	54.04	26.86	13.11	6.55
PIT	4-2	0.561	68.15	76.65	54.69	28.35	14.00	6.78
ATL	4-2	0.550	72.34	76.46	47.00	22.20	10.47	5.07
ARI	2-3	0.548	20.12	34.60	20.41	9.58	4.53	2.18
SD	2-4	0.531	6.90	18.72	10.92	5.12	2.38	1.08
KC	3-2	0.516	27.35	46.64	29.07	13.46	5.99	2.63
BAL	3-3	0.505	26.95	38.27	21.80	9.86	4.33	1.86
GB	3-2	0.502	8.24	35.29	18.50	7.76	3.33	1.45
WAS	4-2	0.500	13.80	43.46	24.26	10.24	4.34	1.89
DET	3-3	0.494	4.74	23.12	11.72	4.84	2.05	0.88
TEN	3-3	0.484	24.54	33.57	18.06	7.62	3.16	1.29
NO	2-3	0.481	16.08	22.66	11.05	4.41	1.78	0.74
OAK	4-2	0.480	21.97	45.54	27.92	11.88	4.87	1.97
IND	2-4	0.477	8.80	13.17	6.45	2.64	1.08	0.43
CAR	1-5	0.475	2.01	3.30	1.46	0.57	0.23	0.09
NYG	3-3	0.466	4.45	16.44	7.89	3.06	1.21	0.49
MIA	2-4	0.465	1.14	6.59	3.21	1.29	0.53	0.21
HOU	4-2	0.455	52.10	58.62	31.94	12.65	4.85	1.85
JAC	2-3	0.448	14.55	17.84	8.31	3.20	1.22	0.46
LA	3-3	0.440	11.63	20.13	9.17	3.32	1.22	0.46
CIN	2-4	0.424	4.57	7.19	3.03	1.12	0.41	0.14
NYJ	1-4	0.418	0.51	2.26	0.98	0.35	0.13	0.04
TB	2-3	0.414	9.57	12.77	5.23	1.76	0.61	0.21
CHI	1-5	0.410	0.29	1.47	0.56	0.19	0.06	0.02
SF	1-5	0.404	0.72	1.26	0.47	0.15	0.05	0.02
CLE	0-6	0.391	0.33	0.39	0.14	0.05	0.02	0.01

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh

2016 World Series Projection, October 17

Chicago over Cleveland

League Championship Series
TOR 0-2 CLE
LAD 1-1 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS


Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	70.51	51.26
CLE	0.5648	81.75	28.14
TOR	0.5609	18.25	6.15
LAD	0.5596	29.49	14.45

We got a pretty exciting game last night, as 1-0 games usually are. Although I did reassure my Cubs-fan friend before the game that Kershaw would completely shut them down. Chicago is still over 70% likely to win the series, and more likely than not to win the World Series.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

Clemson is now #1, a place they haven't been yet this year. I should really keep some sort of high/low/average information on teams so I can see at a glance where they've been. Of course, at 7-0, Clemson has certainly been near the top all season. My system really prefers you play that extra game, so bye weeks have a tendency to hurt even teams like Texas A&M, who was #1 last week. But, eventually they'll catch up to Clemson in games played, and all will be fair again.

Just because they're my adopted team, I'll mention that Missouri lost again, this time to Florida. That SEC schedule's a tough one...

Good news for fans of Miami, Ohio, your team won a game! Now Rice is at the bottom of my rankings. They'll need to win their last 6 to be bowl eligible, barring the win distribution issues we had last year that put several 5-win teams in bowls.

1	Clemson	7-0
2	Alabama	7-0
3	Western Michigan	7-0
4	Texas A&M	6-0
5	Michigan	6-0
6	Ohio State	6-0
7	Houston	6-1
8	Boise State	6-0
9	Washington	6-0
10	Nebraska	6-0
11	Utah	6-1
12	Florida State	5-2
13	Tennessee	5-2
14	South Florida	6-1
15	North Carolina	5-2
16	West Virginia	5-0
17	Pittsburgh	5-2
18	Arkansas	5-2
19	Louisville	5-1
20	Baylor	6-0
21	Arizona State	5-2
22	Colorado	5-2
23	Wake Forest	5-2
24	Florida	5-1
25	Central Michigan	5-2
26	Toledo	5-1
27	Troy	5-1
28	Memphis	5-1
29	San Diego State	5-1
30	Iowa	5-2
31	Navy	4-1
32	Penn State	4-2
33	Washington State	4-2
34	USC	4-3
35	Eastern Michigan	5-2
36	Oklahoma	4-2
37	Stanford	4-2
38	Wisconsin	4-2
39	Virginia Tech	4-2
40	Auburn	4-2
41	Minnesota	4-2
42	Georgia Tech	4-3
43	Oklahoma State	4-2
44	LSU	4-2
45	Miami	4-2
46	NC State	4-2
47	Appalachian State	4-2
48	Wyoming	4-2
49	Tulsa	4-2
50	BYU	4-3
51	Georgia	4-3
52	TCU	4-2
53	Temple	4-3
54	Ole Miss	3-3
55	Maryland	4-2
56	Idaho	4-3
57	Akron	4-3
58	Old Dominion	4-2
59	Air Force	4-2
60	Middle Tennessee	4-2
61	Western Kentucky	4-3
62	Louisiana Tech	4-3
63	Northwestern	3-3
64	Ohio	4-3
65	UCLA	3-4
66	California	3-3
67	Indiana	3-3
68	Southern Mississippi	4-3
69	Connecticut	3-4
70	Kentucky	3-3
71	Syracuse	3-4
72	Cincinnati	3-3
73	Colorado State	3-4
74	Texas Tech	3-3
75	Kansas State	3-3
76	Army	4-2
77	Vanderbilt	3-4
78	UCF	3-3
79	Tulane	3-3
80	Duke	3-4
81	Ball State	4-3
82	Boston College	3-3
83	New Mexico	3-3
84	Georgia Southern	3-3
85	Purdue	3-3
86	Texas San Antonio	3-3
87	South Alabama	3-3
88	UNLV	3-4
89	Texas	3-3
90	Hawai'i	3-4
91	Oregon State	2-4
92	North Texas	3-3
93	Oregon	2-4
94	Virginia	2-4
95	Arizona	2-5
96	Missouri	2-4
97	SMU	2-4
98	Utah State	2-4
99	Illinois	2-4
100	Arkansas State	2-4
101	Rutgers	2-5
102	South Carolina	2-4
103	Nevada	3-4
104	Louisiana Monroe	2-4
105	East Carolina	2-4
106	Louisiana Lafayette	2-4
107	Florida Intl	3-4
108	Marshall	2-4
109	Mississippi State	2-4
110	Michigan State	2-4
111	Texas State	2-4
112	Kent State	2-5
113	New Mexico State	2-4
114	Notre Dame	2-5
115	Charlotte	2-5
116	Northern Illinois	1-6
117	Bowling Green	1-6
118	San Jose State	2-5
119	Georgia State	1-5
120	Kansas	1-5
121	Miami (OH)	1-6
122	Fresno State	1-6
123	Iowa State	1-6
124	Buffalo	1-5
125	Massachusetts	1-6
126	UTEP	1-5
127	Florida Atlantic	1-6
128	Rice	0-6

2016 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M

2016 World Series Projection, October 16

Chicago over Cleveland

League Championship Series
TOR 0-2 CLE
LAD 0-1 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS


Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	83.85	60.96
CLE	0.5648	81.75	25.56
TOR	0.5609	18.25	5.57
LAD	0.5596	16.15	7.91

Chicago blew a lead but came back to win their game, and it doesn't look like anyone's going to stop them. Cleveland won another close one, and everything by the numbers looks just like yesterday but with more certainty to it.