Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Divisional Saturday

Seattle over New England

I really want to put a big asterisk on this projection, but it does make a little sense. New England is currently favored to win the AFC because, while Denver is the better team, they only have a 70.5% chance of even facing New England, who has advanced 1 round further than Denver's current position.

However, last year on Divisional Saturday, there was a similar situation, where Seattle was the strongest NFC team, but I had San Francisco as the favorite, because they won Saturday and Seattle was yet to play. As it turns out Seattle did indeed lose their Divisional game, and San Francisco won the NFC over Atlanta the next week. If Denver were to lose today, New England would remain the AFC favorite, because San Diego is the weakest team still alive in the playoffs. Otherwise, the favorite status will go back to Denver.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	13-3	0.856	+	+	+	+	63.412	43.757
DEN	13-3	0.779	+	+	+	70.514	42.931	18.134
CAR	12-4	0.779	+	+	+	51.287	19.050	10.881
SF	12-4	0.770	-	+	+	48.713	17.538	9.854
NE	12-4	0.695	+	+	+	+	45.503	14.639
SD	9-7	0.596	-	+	+	29.486	11.566	2.736

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 15, Sunday)

First to 30% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 17, Final)
First to 40% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Divisional Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Denver (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]
[Week 17, Final]
[Wildcard Saturday]
[Wildcard Sunday]