Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 6, Sunday

San Diego over Philadelphia

Dallas won, but Philadelphia won in a huge shutout, and took over the NFC East title and NFC Championship chances.

Despite being at the top, San Diego beat Oakland by just a field goal, which seems a little discordant. Perhaps Oakland will climb up the charts a bit after their coaching change, but my money would still be on a sub-.250 season.

We had a tie for the 4th year in a row yesterday, an event that annually makes me question whether I ever made my projection software to handle it. Then I look back and see we had one last year, and all is at peace in my mind again.

Tonight, the Rams host the 49ers, and the fans have clearly already given up for the year. Earlier this week, tickets were going as cheap as $8 on the secondary market. As of Monday morning, the cheapest were still under $20. October, at least when the Cardinals are in the playoffs, is not a great time for the Rams and Blues to try to get any attention. The Blues home opener completely sneaked up on me, getting almost no local coverage. With the Cardinals off tonight, and the Rams the only football on TV, a good game might bring some local fans back to the team. I'll support them at least until they leave town, and tonight I'll be wearing my "Greatest Show on Turf" Stephen Jackson throwback jersey.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SD	5-1	0.633	60.254	87.198	71.848	41.379	23.498	13.674
BAL	4-2	0.624	52.342	73.708	55.613	31.100	17.027	9.735
DET	4-2	0.590	53.233	74.049	56.673	31.476	17.114	8.650
IND	4-2	0.586	78.968	83.727	59.569	30.620	15.367	8.194
PHI	5-1	0.586	51.289	81.533	64.139	35.082	19.060	9.544
DEN	4-1	0.575	34.465	72.985	51.597	25.474	12.621	6.584
DAL	5-1	0.572	44.247	80.596	61.602	32.534	17.151	8.362
GB	4-2	0.558	36.853	59.338	40.825	20.980	10.657	5.049
CIN	3-1-1	0.539	26.775	53.039	34.377	15.771	7.125	3.464
NE	4-2	0.539	53.817	60.382	36.327	16.519	7.442	3.618
KC	2-3	0.538	5.251	21.392	11.945	5.420	2.485	1.203
SEA	3-2	0.538	30.487	48.159	31.988	15.594	7.519	3.404
CLE	3-2	0.535	16.856	38.424	23.340	10.606	4.762	2.296
HOU	3-3	0.527	18.834	35.278	19.699	8.753	3.871	1.834
ARI	4-1	0.521	46.163	64.107	44.717	21.155	9.830	4.290
SF	3-2	0.509	20.201	37.313	22.852	10.426	4.722	2.007
BUF	3-3	0.504	28.149	34.024	16.934	7.052	2.937	1.325
CHI	3-3	0.498	8.842	21.764	12.419	5.586	2.500	1.035
MIA	2-3	0.492	16.355	20.786	10.147	4.127	1.680	0.739
ATL	2-4	0.490	19.696	21.125	9.995	4.318	1.874	0.762
NYG	3-3	0.490	4.320	18.121	9.738	4.232	1.862	0.758
NO	2-3	0.485	25.240	27.714	13.505	5.774	2.471	0.992
CAR	3-2-1	0.470	53.709	55.231	26.806	11.082	4.578	1.773
PIT	3-3	0.468	4.027	13.370	6.586	2.543	0.981	0.407
STL	1-3	0.440	3.149	5.048	2.310	0.884	0.343	0.123
WAS	1-5	0.438	0.145	0.874	0.378	0.144	0.056	0.020
MIN	2-4	0.416	1.072	3.556	1.555	0.569	0.210	0.071
TEN	2-4	0.402	2.162	3.633	1.347	0.437	0.143	0.050
OAK	0-5	0.397	0.030	0.120	0.042	0.013	0.004	0.002
NYJ	1-5	0.381	1.678	1.884	0.613	0.182	0.055	0.019
TB	1-5	0.375	1.355	1.471	0.498	0.161	0.052	0.016
JAC	0-6	0.341	0.036	0.049	0.014	0.004	0.001	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]

2014 World Series Projection, October 13

San Francisco over Kansas City

League Championship Series
KC 2-0 BAL
STL 1-1 SF

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	WS	Win
BAL	0.5783	27.04	16.64
SF	0.5363	54.57	27.41
KC	0.5193	72.96	35.53
STL	0.5119	45.43	20.42

San Francisco still holds the statistical lead in the NL race, but it's obviously much closer to even, now that the series itself is tied 1-1.

Since the ALCS teams started a day earlier than the NLCS, they'll have potential for an extra rest day, along with homefield advantage, so I've got to root for Baltimore today. Also, that means I'll get one more day of baseball at the end of the series.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

We have our 7th consecutive #1 team in 7 weeks, Mississippi. That's the reason the BCS never released rankings until week 6; the computers just didn't have enough info to give somewhat stable results from week to week. To help me keep track of the #1s, I have added that to the yearlong summary at the bottom. Of all 127 teams, only one stayed in place this week, #3 Florida State

My current #1 and #2, Mississippi State and Ole Miss, are scheduled to play each other in their last regular season game. That could be for the SEC West title, and could even become a rematch in the college football playoff, though we're a lot of games from that point.

Missouri dropped 13 slots to #30 on a terrible 34-0 shutout, although no scoring goes into these rankings, per the old BCS rules. So, they'd have dropped just as far on a 34-33 loss, or a 2-0 loss.

#127 Massachusetts pulled out a victory, even if it was over #124 Kent State. That still pulled them out of the cellar up to #125, above Idaho and, of course, new #126 Kent State.

1	Mississippi State	6-0
2	Ole Miss	6-0
3	Florida State	6-0
4	Notre Dame	6-0
5	Baylor	6-0
6	Marshall	6-0
7	Michigan State	5-1
8	Auburn	5-1
9	Georgia Tech	5-1
10	Oregon	5-1
11	LSU	5-2
12	Alabama	5-1
13	Nebraska	5-1
14	Arizona	5-1
15	Washington	5-1
16	Georgia	5-1
17	Texas A&M	5-2
18	Oklahoma	5-1
19	Minnesota	5-1
20	Oklahoma State	5-1
21	Louisville	5-2
22	Iowa	5-1
23	Kentucky	5-1
24	Duke	5-1
25	East Carolina	5-1
26	Colorado State	5-1
27	Rutgers	5-1
28	Clemson	4-2
29	USC	4-2
30	Missouri	4-2
31	TCU	4-1
32	UCLA	4-2
33	Virginia Tech	4-2
34	Wisconsin	4-2
35	Kansas State	4-1
36	Bowling Green	5-2
37	Miami (FL)	4-3
38	Utah State	4-2
39	North Carolina State	4-3
40	California	4-2
41	Virginia	4-2
42	Utah	4-1
43	Arkansas State	4-2
44	Maryland	4-2
45	West Virginia	4-2
46	Boise State	4-2
47	Stanford	4-2
48	Penn State	4-2
49	Georgia Southern	5-2
50	Boston College	4-2
51	Ohio State	4-1
52	BYU	4-2
53	Oregon State	4-1
54	Arizona State	4-1
55	Central Michigan	4-3
56	Toledo	4-3
57	Akron	4-2
58	Air Force	4-2
59	Northern Illinois	4-2
60	South Carolina	3-3
61	Middle Tennessee	4-3
62	UCF	3-2
63	Florida	3-2
64	UAB	4-2
65	Tennessee	3-3
66	Northwestern	3-3
67	Purdue	3-4
68	Pittsburgh	3-3
69	Temple	4-1
70	Indiana	3-3
71	Wyoming	3-3
72	Illinois	3-4
73	Arkansas	3-3
74	Louisiana Tech	3-3
75	Michigan	3-4
76	Rice	3-3
77	Nevada	3-3
78	Memphis	3-3
79	Florida International	3-4
80	Houston	3-3
81	Iowa State	2-4
82	Syracuse	2-4
83	Louisiana-Monroe	3-3
84	Navy	3-4
85	UTEP	3-3
86	South Alabama	3-2
87	Western Michigan	3-3
88	Fresno State	3-4
89	San Diego State	3-3
90	North Carolina	2-4
91	Ohio	3-4
92	Buffalo	3-4
93	Kansas	2-4
94	Texas State	3-2
95	Western Kentucky	2-3
96	Texas Tech	2-4
97	Texas	2-4
98	Southern Miss	2-4
99	San Jose State	2-3
100	South Florida	2-4
101	Louisiana-Lafayette	2-3
102	Washington State	2-5
103	Vanderbilt	2-5
104	Cincinnati	2-3
105	Wake Forest	2-4
106	Tulane	2-4
107	Hawaii	2-4
108	Eastern Michigan	2-4
109	Florida Atlantic	2-4
110	UTSA	2-4
111	Colorado	2-4
112	Army	2-4
113	UNLV	2-5
114	New Mexico	2-4
115	North Texas	2-4
116	New Mexico State	2-5
117	Ball State	1-5
118	Troy	1-5
119	Tulsa	1-5
120	Georgia State	1-5
121	Connecticut	1-5
122	Appalachian State	1-5
123	Miami (OH)	1-6
124	SMU	0-5
125	Massachusetts	1-6
126	Kent State	0-6
127	Idaho	0-6

2014 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0

Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn

2014 World Series Projection, October 12

San Francisco over Kansas City

League Championship Series
KC 2-0 BAL
STL 0-1 SF

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	WS	Win
BAL	0.5783	27.04	16.42
SF	0.5363	70.09	35.21
KC	0.5193	72.96	34.92
STL	0.5119	29.91	13.45

With a 1-0 lead over a slightly weaker team, San Francisco is nearly as favored as Kansas City, who are up 2-0. That's because the Royals are up against a significantly stronger team in Baltimore.

I know we had an all-wildcard World Series in 2002, but San Francisco could could represent the first #5 team to make the World Series. Of course, I'm not rooting for that to happen.

2014 World Series Projection, October 11

San Francisco over Kansas City

League Championship Series
KC 1-0 BAL
STL 0-0 SF

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	WS	Win
BAL	0.5783	46.05	28.31
SF	0.5363	55.33	26.43
KC	0.5193	53.95	26.25
STL	0.5119	44.67	19.00

Kansas City may set a record for most extra inning games or extra innings played in one postseason. I have no idea what the current records are, but I'm sure one more 10-inning game and I'm sure the broadcasters will start telling us.

My actual projection is a little weird. If you asked "Who is most likely to win the world Series?" I'd say Baltimore. But, if you asked who is most likely to win the ALCS, the answer right now is Kansas City. That's because if Baltimore does win the ALCS, they'll be more favored than Kansas City to win the World Series. Another way to look at it, is that 17.74% of cases have  Baltimore making the World Series and losing, but 27.7% have Kansas City making it and losing. The projection itself will be somewhat uninteresting from this point forward, as the teams are evenly matched enough that leader in the LCS will always be favored. But, that's why I have the numbers, to show just how likely the likeliest case is.

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 6, Thursday

San Diego over Dallas

Indianapolis jumped 1 spot, and Houston fell by 3 in absolute strength, but not much really changed at the top. San Diego is still the AFC favorite, and the NFC is virtually unaffected by the all-AFC-South game, unless it comes to some pretty seriously deep tiebreakers. Indianapolis and Houston already combined to own the division championship in 98% of the the outcomes, and still hold that amount combined, with more now belonging to Indy, of course. The division is looking like a 2-team race, with Tennessee and Jacksonville a combined 1-9 through 5 weeks.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SD	4-1	0.626	62.588	85.011	70.758	41.383	23.959	14.251
IND	4-2	0.586	77.930	83.869	61.555	32.884	17.109	9.472
BAL	3-2	0.579	34.691	57.975	39.584	20.533	10.512	5.748
DAL	4-1	0.560	41.751	69.394	52.448	28.139	15.047	7.403
GB	3-2	0.553	40.602	55.426	38.213	20.116	10.535	5.101
DET	3-2	0.551	44.651	60.384	42.817	22.484	11.722	5.657
DEN	3-1	0.551	29.802	62.261	42.258	20.396	9.962	5.162
SEA	3-1	0.550	45.531	65.570	49.656	26.146	13.557	6.526
CIN	3-1	0.544	39.844	59.031	40.776	19.639	9.265	4.734
NYG	3-2	0.542	21.849	45.288	30.384	15.567	7.989	3.781
PHI	4-1	0.538	35.640	62.658	45.069	22.985	11.727	5.510
KC	2-3	0.538	7.392	24.559	14.181	6.660	3.166	1.599
NE	3-2	0.532	33.009	43.821	26.867	12.483	5.753	2.875
HOU	3-3	0.527	20.349	39.902	23.230	10.717	4.911	2.425
BUF	3-2	0.518	43.379	50.262	28.865	12.926	5.747	2.787
ATL	2-3	0.513	34.826	38.385	21.548	10.277	4.898	2.177
PIT	3-2	0.513	16.294	34.880	20.829	9.295	4.106	1.971
SF	3-2	0.509	20.148	39.142	24.766	11.839	5.623	2.480
ARI	3-1	0.500	31.247	51.732	34.624	16.255	7.567	3.269
MIA	2-2	0.498	21.017	29.637	16.136	6.920	2.962	1.379
CLE	2-2	0.496	9.171	21.480	12.118	5.205	2.220	1.029
NO	2-3	0.485	21.827	25.792	13.631	6.116	2.744	1.145
CHI	2-3	0.472	7.656	14.311	7.778	3.441	1.519	0.615
CAR	3-2	0.467	40.744	46.590	26.466	11.420	4.914	1.965
WAS	1-4	0.456	0.759	3.303	1.606	0.680	0.290	0.113
MIN	2-3	0.450	7.091	13.493	7.071	2.970	1.244	0.478
STL	1-3	0.440	3.074	5.362	2.608	1.067	0.436	0.163
TB	1-4	0.413	2.602	3.171	1.316	0.497	0.189	0.066
TEN	1-4	0.407	1.521	2.797	1.091	0.375	0.130	0.049
NYJ	1-4	0.404	2.596	3.708	1.456	0.487	0.164	0.061
OAK	0-4	0.402	0.218	0.495	0.192	0.066	0.023	0.008
JAC	0-5	0.362	0.200	0.313	0.104	0.031	0.010	0.003

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]

eBay Wins #143

Today's eBay win is an actual lot, not one of the pseduo-lots I split up by set when I declared "organization bankruptcy" on all my penny cards. This one arrived just the other day, and fit naturally after my previous eBay post featuring 1990 Topps. Today, I have 1990 Topps Traded. I threw a bid out there and didn't think I would actually win it, but believe it or not, these were a penny, total.

1990 Topps Traded
#9T Mike Blowers
#63T Kevin Maas
#75T Alan Mills
#91T Pascual Perez

I assumed Yankees cards, even though they're not the most memorable stars, would at least fetch the 6 cents required to raise the bid for me. The seller did ask for positive feedback in exchange for the extreme bargain, but he earned it anyway, and I make it a point to always leave feedback.

I only had 2 cards from this set, so now I'm up to 6, and still have quite a way to go if I want to complete it through random purchases such as this.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3209
Total Spent	$50.59
Per Card	1.577 cents
Change	-0.001 cents

2014 World Series Projection, October 8

Baltimore over San Francisco

League Championship Series
KC 0-0 BAL
STL 0-0 SF

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	WS	Win
BAL	0.5783	62.80	38.61
SF	0.5363	55.33	25.23
KC	0.5193	37.20	18.10
STL	0.5119	44.67	18.05

The two League Championship Series are all set, as both San Francisco and Saint Louis won last night to win their NLDS in 4 games each.

I'd consider the Cardinals extremely lucky to have beaten Clayton Kershaw 4 times in the last 2 postseasons. It's certainly no knock against him, or any indication they have him "figured out"; these things are inherently random. After all, he only gave up 3 runs last night. That's not a bad game if you're offense can score 4. In terms of W-L record (which is not a perfect stat, but go with me), he's 99-54 including the playoffs. That's outstanding, but with 54 losses, some team among the other 29 is going to appear to have your number, and be responsible for a disproportionate number of those losses. Overall it was a close series that could have easily tipped either way, with a run differential of 1, 1, 2 and 1 in the 4 games.

The Giants and Nationals had another close series, with run differentials of 1, 1, 3, and 1, and an overall differential of 0. They scored the same number of runs, San Francisco just distributed them better. Now we'll get a rematch of the 2012 NLCS, hopefully with different results this time.

There's no baseball until Friday, so projections will resume Saturday morning.

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 5, Final

San Diego over Dallas

Seattle couldn't quite muster the offense or defense to take over the NFC, only beating Washington by 10 points, but they are now favored to win the NFC West, and they are the 2nd most favored team to make the Superbowl for the NFC. Fun fact: my sister used to think Washington D.C. was near Seattle, but just in case she ever reads this, I won't tell you how old she was when we corrected her on that.

The last of the undefeated teams fell this week, on Sunday actually, so Miami retains their last-undefeated-team status for another year.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SD	4-1	0.626	62.591	84.901	70.829	41.508	24.162	14.367
BAL	3-2	0.579	34.587	57.408	39.523	20.627	10.601	5.795
IND	3-2	0.579	57.531	68.319	47.642	24.982	12.817	6.999
DAL	4-1	0.560	41.942	69.553	52.619	28.234	15.094	7.457
GB	3-2	0.553	40.599	55.403	38.189	20.106	10.529	5.122
DET	3-2	0.551	44.638	60.363	42.797	22.471	11.712	5.675
DEN	3-1	0.551	29.796	62.139	42.230	20.466	10.050	5.206
SEA	3-1	0.550	45.524	65.553	49.640	26.131	13.548	6.549
CIN	3-1	0.544	39.883	58.742	40.704	19.711	9.338	4.774
NYG	3-2	0.541	21.969	45.488	30.539	15.644	8.028	3.816
HOU	3-2	0.541	40.462	57.167	37.315	17.962	8.501	4.323
PHI	4-1	0.538	35.322	62.325	44.763	22.826	11.646	5.495
KC	2-3	0.538	7.395	24.391	14.171	6.688	3.194	1.612
NE	3-2	0.532	33.098	43.871	26.842	12.539	5.810	2.904
BUF	3-2	0.518	43.322	50.182	28.851	13.005	5.812	2.819
ATL	2-3	0.513	34.818	38.373	21.538	10.273	4.899	2.188
PIT	3-2	0.513	16.334	34.637	20.790	9.335	4.142	1.988
SF	3-2	0.509	20.150	39.143	24.769	11.843	5.627	2.493
ARI	3-1	0.500	31.248	51.735	34.633	16.263	7.573	3.287
MIA	2-2	0.498	20.990	29.542	16.129	6.968	2.998	1.394
CLE	2-2	0.496	9.196	21.312	12.087	5.228	2.239	1.037
NO	2-3	0.485	21.827	25.792	13.633	6.116	2.745	1.151
CHI	2-3	0.472	7.664	14.318	7.783	3.444	1.522	0.619
CAR	3-2	0.467	40.749	46.596	26.477	11.424	4.916	1.977
WAS	1-4	0.456	0.767	3.320	1.615	0.683	0.291	0.113
MIN	2-3	0.450	7.099	13.495	7.074	2.971	1.244	0.479
STL	1-3	0.440	3.079	5.368	2.613	1.071	0.438	0.165
TB	1-4	0.413	2.606	3.174	1.318	0.498	0.189	0.067
TEN	1-4	0.407	1.773	2.880	1.132	0.391	0.137	0.051
NYJ	1-4	0.404	2.590	3.683	1.451	0.489	0.166	0.062
OAK	0-4	0.402	0.218	0.492	0.192	0.067	0.023	0.009
JAC	0-5	0.362	0.234	0.332	0.111	0.034	0.010	0.004

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]

2014 World Series Projection, October 7

Baltimore over San Francisco

League Championship Series
KC 0-0 BAL

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 2-1 LAD
SF 2-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
WAS	0.5955	31.36	20.12	11.78
BAL	0.5783	100.00	62.80	35.70
LAD	0.5687	31.02	16.45	8.66
SF	0.5363	68.64	35.33	16.11
KC	0.5193	100.00	37.20	16.39
STL	0.5119	68.98	28.10	11.36

Today's projection stays the same, but weakens a bit. Yesterday the matchup was 24.8% likely, and today it's 22.2%. San Francisco is still in the driver's seat in the NL, but a loss tonight would flip that series back to Washington's favor. I'll be rooting for the Nationals tonight, just to prolong the series.

As for the Cardinals, it would seem the key to the Dodgers is getting to their bullpen, so hopefully the short-rested Kershaw will tire out a bit early tonight. I know, that's kind of like hoping Michael Jordan would be too tired to dominate an NBA Finals game, but a fan can dream.

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 5, Sunday

San Diego over Dallas

Well, easy come, easy go, right? Cincinnati is now the 4th most likely team to make the Superbowl from the AFC, and Arizona is 7th in the NFC. The Cardinals were definitely riding on a razor's edge on the strength of being undefeated. Their point differential is now exactly 0, meaning they're projected as a .500 team the rest of the way, despite being 3-1.

San Diego was already the 3rd strongest team, and their 31-0 victory brought them way up to the top, by quite a margin. Dallas is now the strongest and most favored team in the NFC. Seattle seems to have a way of suddenly breaking out for large numbers of points, and/or completely shutting down opponents on defense, so we'll see if Dallas can hang onto that spot for more than today.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SD	4-1	0.626	62.520	84.801	70.721	41.445	24.132	14.426
BAL	3-2	0.579	34.579	57.413	39.533	20.639	10.609	5.832
IND	3-2	0.579	57.304	68.086	47.438	24.876	12.763	7.009
DAL	4-1	0.560	41.190	69.559	52.848	28.517	15.367	7.593
GB	3-2	0.553	40.637	55.860	39.072	20.744	10.934	5.322
DET	3-2	0.551	44.682	60.828	43.686	23.135	12.147	5.890
DEN	3-1	0.551	29.766	62.104	42.221	20.456	10.050	5.238
CIN	3-1	0.544	39.900	58.758	40.731	19.732	9.350	4.807
NYG	3-2	0.541	21.809	46.237	31.252	16.105	8.329	3.957
HOU	3-2	0.541	40.699	57.330	37.447	18.033	8.529	4.362
PHI	4-1	0.538	35.136	62.940	45.511	23.348	12.010	5.667
KC	2-3	0.538	7.491	24.608	14.310	6.760	3.231	1.642
NE	3-2	0.532	33.101	43.873	26.847	12.539	5.809	2.921
SEA	2-1	0.531	35.631	52.632	37.573	19.047	9.526	4.428
BUF	3-2	0.518	43.320	50.181	28.862	13.007	5.813	2.836
ATL	2-3	0.513	34.703	38.408	21.909	10.543	5.058	2.261
PIT	3-2	0.513	16.324	34.642	20.796	9.339	4.142	2.001
SF	3-2	0.509	23.843	41.167	26.392	12.708	6.064	2.684
ARI	3-1	0.500	36.608	53.904	36.707	17.370	8.126	3.527
MIA	2-2	0.498	20.986	29.520	16.119	6.963	2.996	1.403
CLE	2-2	0.496	9.198	21.311	12.093	5.232	2.242	1.047
NO	2-3	0.485	21.758	25.899	13.918	6.304	2.850	1.195
WAS	1-3	0.475	1.865	8.124	4.332	1.932	0.865	0.355
CHI	2-3	0.472	7.673	14.545	8.033	3.590	1.596	0.650
CAR	3-2	0.467	41.000	47.107	27.257	11.866	5.141	2.066
MIN	2-3	0.450	7.008	13.589	7.236	3.071	1.297	0.501
STL	1-3	0.440	3.918	6.055	2.949	1.214	0.498	0.188
TB	1-4	0.413	2.540	3.146	1.325	0.507	0.193	0.068
TEN	1-4	0.407	1.759	2.848	1.120	0.388	0.135	0.051
NYJ	1-4	0.404	2.594	3.686	1.452	0.490	0.166	0.062
OAK	0-4	0.402	0.223	0.504	0.197	0.068	0.024	0.009
JAC	0-5	0.362	0.238	0.335	0.112	0.034	0.011	0.004

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]

2014 World Series Projection, October 6

Baltimore over San Francisco

League Championship Series
KC 0-0 BAL

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 1-1 LAD
SF 2-0 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
WAS	0.5955	17.56	10.70	6.26
BAL	0.5783	100.00	62.80	35.44
LAD	0.5687	58.51	32.08	16.89
SF	0.5363	82.44	39.61	18.06
KC	0.5193	100.00	37.20	16.22
STL	0.5119	41.49	17.62	7.12

The two ALDSs finished with sweeps yesterday, and the AL representative in the World Series will be a a team who hasn't been there in either the last 28 or 30 seasons. I like a little parity in the game, except when it comes to the Cardinals. I'd take them winning every year if I could. As for my pick in the ALCS, I'm a little torn. I think I may just watch the games and enjoy them, instead of rooting this year. The scale tips just slightly to Baltimore to validate that I've been picking them to win the AL since their first win of the playoffs...3 whole days ago.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 6

This week was chock full of upsets. The only victory in from my top 7 was #4 Florida State, now up to #3, and two of those losses were to #8 and #9. Auburn is now atop my rankings for the first time this year, followed closely by Mississippi State.

Missouri took this week off, and falls 7 spots to #17 for it. The bottom 2 teams lost again, leaving the bottom 3 in position this week. Can we please, please have a special bowl for the worst FBS teams? Right now Massachusetts and Idaho would be lined up to participate by my rankings.

1	Auburn	5-0
2	Mississippi State	5-0
3	Florida State	5-0
4	Georgia Tech	5-0
5	Ole Miss	5-0
6	Nebraska	5-1
7	Notre Dame	5-0
8	Arizona	5-0
9	Texas A&M	5-1
10	Louisville	5-1
11	Baylor	5-0
12	Marshall	5-0
13	Rutgers	5-1
14	UCLA	4-1
15	Michigan State	4-1
16	Oregon	4-1
17	Missouri	4-1
18	TCU	4-0
19	Virginia Tech	4-2
20	North Carolina State	4-2
21	Alabama	4-1
22	Virginia	4-2
23	LSU	4-2
24	California	4-1
25	Maryland	4-2
26	Utah	4-1
27	Oklahoma	4-1
28	Boise State	4-2
29	Kansas State	4-1
30	Penn State	4-1
31	Minnesota	4-1
32	Ohio State	4-1
33	Washington	4-1
34	Oklahoma State	4-1
35	BYU	4-1
36	Toledo	4-2
37	East Carolina	4-1
38	Iowa	4-1
39	Kentucky	4-1
40	Arizona State	4-1
41	Colorado State	4-1
42	Air Force	4-1
43	Northern Illinois	4-1
44	Georgia	4-1
45	Middle Tennessee	4-2
46	Oregon State	4-1
47	Clemson	3-2
48	Georgia Southern	4-2
49	Wyoming	3-2
50	Duke	4-1
51	Bowling Green	4-2
52	Northwestern	3-2
53	Indiana	3-2
54	USC	3-2
55	South Carolina	3-3
56	Purdue	3-3
57	Illinois	3-3
58	Florida	3-1
59	Pittsburgh	3-3
60	West Virginia	3-2
61	Miami (FL)	3-3
62	Arkansas State	3-2
63	Wisconsin	3-2
64	Arkansas	3-2
65	Memphis	3-2
66	Stanford	3-2
67	Utah State	3-2
68	Florida International	3-3
69	Akron	3-2
70	Central Michigan	3-3
71	Nevada	3-2
72	Boston College	3-2
73	Louisiana Tech	3-3
74	UAB	3-2
75	Fresno State	3-3
76	Buffalo	3-3
77	Syracuse	2-3
78	Louisiana-Monroe	3-2
79	Temple	3-1
80	South Alabama	3-2
81	UCF	2-2
82	Tennessee	2-3
83	Ohio	3-3
84	Washington State	2-4
85	Texas State	3-2
86	Texas	2-3
87	North Carolina	2-3
88	Cincinnati	2-2
89	Kansas	2-3
90	Texas Tech	2-3
91	Western Kentucky	2-3
92	South Florida	2-3
93	Rice	2-3
94	Southern Miss	2-4
95	Navy	2-4
96	Louisiana-Lafayette	2-3
97	Wake Forest	2-4
98	San Jose State	2-3
99	Michigan	2-4
100	Florida Atlantic	2-4
101	UTEP	2-3
102	Army	2-3
103	Western Michigan	2-3
104	San Diego State	2-3
105	Colorado	2-4
106	New Mexico	2-3
107	Iowa State	1-4
108	Houston	2-3
109	New Mexico State	2-4
110	North Texas	2-3
111	Tulane	1-4
112	Ball State	1-4
113	Eastern Michigan	1-4
114	Connecticut	1-4
115	UTSA	1-4
116	Tulsa	1-4
117	Hawaii	1-4
118	Vanderbilt	1-5
119	Georgia State	1-4
120	Appalachian State	1-4
121	Miami (OH)	1-5
122	UNLV	1-5
123	SMU	0-5
124	Kent State	0-5
125	Troy	0-5
126	Idaho	0-5
127	Massachusetts	0-6

2014 History

Week 1

Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5

2014 World Series Projection, October 5

Baltimore over San Francisco

Division Series
KC 2-0 LAA
DET 0-2 BAL
STL 1-1 LAD
SF 2-0 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT
First, I had a bit of a mixup yesterday, because I'm a bad software engineer, I guess. I didn't count KC's second win over LA, so here's the corrected table from yesterday

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
WAS	0.5955	40.74	25.70	14.88
LAA	0.5923	18.86	10.20	5.98
BAL	0.5783	90.66	54.21	30.13
LAD	0.5687	40.24	20.84	10.84
SF	0.5363	59.26	29.82	13.40
DET	0.5324	9.34	4.66	2.12
KC	0.5193	81.14	30.94	13.25
STL	0.5119	59.76	23.64	9.41

Obvious changes are that KC's LCS odds went way up, LA's went way down, and the NL teams' Championship odds went up slightly as the likelihood of playing the statistically weaker Royals increased. The one-liner projection was still accurate, as Baltimore is still the AL team with the strongest chances at making the World Series

Now for today's odds

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
WAS	0.5955	17.56	10.70	6.19
LAA	0.5923	18.86	10.20	6.07
BAL	0.5783	90.66	54.21	30.60
LAD	0.5687	58.51	32.08	16.68
SF	0.5363	82.44	39.61	17.80
DET	0.5324	9.34	4.66	2.16
KC	0.5193	81.14	30.94	13.49
STL	0.5119	41.49	17.62	7.01

The overall effect of the NL games on the AL teams was a mild increase in their Championship odds. That means the San Francisco upset more than outweighed the Dodgers expected victory. Maybe that's another stat I'll track next year: Chances of each league winning. Right now the AL is at 52.32%, up from 51.48% yesterday.

2014 World Series Projection, October 4

Baltimore over San Francisco

Division Series
KC 2-0 LAA
DET 0-2 BAL
STL 1-0 LAD
SF 1-0 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
WAS	0.5955	40.74	25.70	14.47
LAA	0.5923	42.99	23.25	13.63
BAL	0.5783	90.66	50.72	28.19
LAD	0.5687	40.24	20.84	10.50
SF	0.5363	59.26	29.82	12.92
DET	0.5324	9.34	4.30	1.96
KC	0.5193	57.01	21.74	9.31
STL	0.5119	59.76	23.64	9.03

Yesterday was another good day for my rooting interests, though not as much for my belief in these numbers. Only Baltimore over Detroit went the expected direction. The ALDSs are quickly both 2-0, and could be over before Sunday Night Football. I'd be ok with that, as we'd get to see KC and Baltimore on full rest with their best possible pitching rotations.

In the NL, the Cardinals pulled off an 8-run inning after most of us figured the game was over. It's the playoffs, so I won't tune out no matter how bad a game gets, but I wasn't expecting a win down 6-1 with Kershaw still in the game. In the other NLDS, I don't really have a strong like or dislike of either team, so I'm just rooting for a 5-game, dragged out series, and hopefully a Cardinals sweep. I'll take any advantage the Cardinals can get this year. As the worst team by my numbers, they won't be favored to win any series until and unless they're actually ahead in the series.

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 5, Thursday

Cincinnati over Arizona

Before Thursday's blowout, Green Bay had a negative point differential (and thus a below-.500 strength), and Minnesota's was positive (and thus an above-.500 strength). But those positions swapped with the 32 point victory by Green Bay. For the moment, Green Bay is the second strongest team in the NFC, even ahead of favorite Arizona. Arizona remains the favorite because 3-0 is a better position to be in than 3-2, and Detroit is still favored to win the NFC North at 3-1.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	3-1	0.584	34.692	70.951	51.171	27.519	14.831	8.179
CIN	3-0	0.582	54.813	80.595	64.036	34.542	18.533	10.178
SD	3-1	0.577	53.639	72.760	56.408	30.324	15.968	8.706
IND	2-2	0.562	39.540	51.798	33.844	17.366	8.849	4.683
DET	3-1	0.555	50.191	69.386	52.493	27.879	14.705	7.372
GB	3-2	0.553	33.618	55.589	38.502	20.228	10.600	5.288
DAL	3-1	0.551	40.238	60.280	43.968	23.139	12.082	6.010
ARI	3-0	0.549	56.096	74.414	57.909	30.455	15.814	7.818
HOU	3-1	0.547	56.445	69.309	48.875	24.415	12.032	6.188
KC	2-2	0.546	20.778	40.854	26.394	13.095	6.440	3.305
SEA	2-1	0.531	27.372	50.846	34.701	17.396	8.690	4.144
PHI	3-1	0.529	35.970	54.145	37.630	18.861	9.399	4.470
ATL	2-2	0.527	52.460	56.709	34.894	17.216	8.489	4.017
NYG	2-2	0.523	20.457	34.170	21.445	10.568	5.197	2.436
DEN	2-1	0.516	25.043	46.841	30.287	14.076	6.471	3.125
BUF	2-2	0.510	39.556	44.145	24.189	10.918	4.925	2.353
MIA	2-2	0.498	28.383	35.049	19.209	8.473	3.731	1.737
SF	2-2	0.498	11.675	28.676	16.975	7.894	3.675	1.632
PIT	2-2	0.496	6.360	23.275	12.905	5.685	2.531	1.175
CLE	1-2	0.494	4.135	15.777	8.597	3.774	1.677	0.775
CHI	2-2	0.484	11.174	25.792	15.235	6.897	3.122	1.346
NE	2-2	0.478	19.642	24.562	12.773	5.378	2.264	1.011
WAS	1-3	0.475	3.335	9.073	4.863	2.153	0.957	0.404
NO	1-3	0.473	14.201	17.621	8.916	3.893	1.706	0.717
NYJ	1-3	0.464	12.420	16.278	8.073	3.283	1.337	0.577
CAR	2-2	0.451	27.303	32.686	17.119	7.119	2.963	1.182
MIN	2-3	0.450	5.017	12.721	6.673	2.793	1.172	0.466
STL	1-2	0.448	4.857	10.442	5.415	2.254	0.942	0.373
TB	1-3	0.420	6.036	7.450	3.261	1.255	0.486	0.180
TEN	1-3	0.410	3.250	5.697	2.422	0.870	0.313	0.119
OAK	0-4	0.402	0.541	0.881	0.348	0.123	0.044	0.016
JAC	0-4	0.388	0.765	1.228	0.468	0.158	0.054	0.019

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]

2014 World Series Projection, October 3

Washington over Baltimore

Division Series
KC 1-0 LAA
DET 0-1 BAL
STL 0-0 LAD
SF 0-0 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
WAS	0.5955	61.14	37.09	21.17
LAA	0.5923	42.99	23.90	13.40
BAL	0.5783	75.36	42.16	22.34
LAD	0.5687	60.59	29.75	15.23
SF	0.5363	38.86	18.57	8.19
DET	0.5324	24.64	11.34	4.88
KC	0.5193	57.01	22.60	9.10
STL	0.5119	39.41	14.59	5.69

Both games went my preferred way yesterday, and the Baltimore win and Angels loss conspired to make Baltimore the new AL favorite. Today is one of my favorite sports days of the year, the only day when we are guaranteed 4 playoff games in a single day. It could happen Monday, too, but only if no one sweeps their LDS. I'll be rooting for Baltimore and Kansas City, again, and also the Cardinals. 

World Series Contest - It's Not Too Late To Enter!

Collector's Crack's "Almost the Easiest" contest is back, this time for the World Series. You just pick the winner, and for a tiebreaker, the loser, the number of games, and number of home runs. Of course, write up a little promotion for a bonus shot at the door prize.

Go enter the contest before Sunday at 3pm Central Time. I won this year's Superbowl contest, and even nailed the tiebreaker within a point, and came dangerously close with a Cardinals over Boston pick for the World Series last year, so I guess what I'm saying is, good luck beating me and my all-seeing sports almanac from the future.

Heavy

2014 World Series Projection, October 2

Washington over Los Angeles

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
WAS	0.5955	61.14	37.09	20.91
LAA	0.5923	63.58	36.40	20.41
BAL	0.5783	58.64	30.88	16.36
LAD	0.5687	60.59	29.75	15.01
SF	0.5363	38.86	18.57	8.06
DET	0.5324	41.36	17.68	7.61
KC	0.5193	36.42	15.04	6.06
STL	0.5119	39.41	14.59	5.58

Since the San Francisco - Pittsburgh matchup was nearly a 50/50 split, your favorite team's odd did not change much - assuming your favorite team is not San Francisco or Pittsburgh. The largest difference from yesterday, aside from those two teams, was that the Dodgers' chances of making the world series went from 29.77% to 29.75%, and even that change could be as little as about .01% due to rounding.

Today both ALDSs start, and I'll be rooting for Kansas City and Baltimore. I'm assuming for now that the Cardinals will be in the World Series, so I'm rooting for my favorite matchups. My favorite non-Cardinals matchups would be Baltimore-Washington or LA-LA, to show New York that they're not the only ones that can have a same-metro-area series

2014 World Series Projection, October 1

Washington over Los Angeles

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 0-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LDS	LCS	WS	Win
WAS	0.5955	100.00	61.23	37.14	20.94
LAA	0.5923	100.00	63.58	36.40	20.41
BAL	0.5783	100.00	58.64	30.88	16.37
LAD	0.5687	100.00	60.59	29.77	15.02
SF	0.5363	50.09	19.47	9.30	4.04
PIT	0.5354	49.91	19.31	9.19	3.97
DET	0.5324	100.00	41.36	17.68	7.61
KC	0.5193	100.00	36.42	15.04	6.06
STL	0.5119	100.00	39.41	14.60	5.59

With a win last night, Oakland would have been the World Series favorite, although that would have been slightly misleading due to the excess rest the Angels will have before the ALDS. But now, Kansas City is in their first modern ALDS, if you don't count the strike-caused 1981 playoff format. Today is the NL's turn at the 1-game wildcard playoff, a game I've deemed the Barry Bonds Cup, as he's the most famous player who's only played for those two franchises, just beating out Ryan Vogelsong.

I don't like that the Cardinals chances are barely above San Francisco, who still has a road wildcard game to play. It's exceedingly unlikely, but I'll be rooting for a St. Louis - Kansas City world Series, and hopefully a different result than 1985.