Tenets of Wilson

2020-11-10

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 9, Final

Kansas City over Green Bay

Generally this is where I mention that a game between 2 bad teams doesn't really change anything. This week's teams were a combined 2-13, but with New England defeating the New York Jets, they're officially eliminated from winning the AFC East. They're not out of the playoffs entirely (especially if the NFL renders all my numbers moot by adding an 8th team in each conference), and therefore it's not impossible for them to win the Super Bowl just yet, although they never did in my 2 billion simulations this time.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	8-1	0.668	94.14	99.54	76.53	45.40	25.61	15.54
PIT	8-0	0.631	74.78	99.38	77.00	42.21	21.55	12.24
BAL	6-2	0.655	24.29	95.30	60.05	33.31	18.15	10.76
GB	6-2	0.580	79.18	92.94	62.82	33.41	17.39	7.93
NO	6-2	0.574	70.78	92.94	60.73	31.79	16.34	7.36
ARI	5-3	0.596	32.61	76.58	46.94	25.55	13.77	6.50
TB	6-3	0.587	28.05	79.43	48.61	25.86	13.65	6.33
LAR	5-3	0.588	24.67	73.58	45.21	24.15	12.80	5.94
MIA	5-3	0.615	35.72	77.17	42.56	20.75	10.34	5.69
SEA	6-2	0.546	40.47	86.96	54.53	26.53	12.75	5.38
IND	5-3	0.596	38.47	63.47	32.03	15.04	7.18	3.82
TEN	6-2	0.554	61.14	82.25	39.09	16.74	7.22	3.53
BUF	7-2	0.516	63.45	88.20	38.13	14.91	5.85	2.64
PHI	3-4-1	0.463	72.20	72.29	28.90	11.43	4.52	1.56
CHI	5-4	0.472	17.41	49.00	21.24	8.72	3.56	1.25
LV	5-3	0.481	5.72	45.72	17.68	6.25	2.28	0.95
SF	4-5	0.536	2.26	20.35	10.07	4.76	2.27	0.93
CLE	5-3	0.447	0.92	36.38	12.74	4.07	1.37	0.52
MIN	3-5	0.471	2.82	15.44	6.47	2.64	1.08	0.38
WAS	2-6	0.423	15.37	15.63	5.61	2.00	0.71	0.22
CAR	3-6	0.468	0.29	4.29	1.78	0.72	0.30	0.10
DET	3-5	0.426	0.59	5.92	2.22	0.81	0.30	0.09
NYG	2-7	0.391	6.91	6.93	2.29	0.75	0.25	0.07
NE	3-5	0.441	0.84	4.67	1.57	0.49	0.17	0.06
ATL	3-6	0.486	0.88	2.16	0.91	0.39	0.17	0.06
LAC	2-6	0.480	0.03	1.98	0.72	0.25	0.09	0.04
DAL	2-7	0.361	5.52	5.55	1.67	0.50	0.15	0.04
DEN	3-5	0.418	0.11	3.27	1.02	0.30	0.09	0.03
CIN	2-5-1	0.462	0.00	1.44	0.51	0.17	0.06	0.02
HOU	2-6	0.416	0.38	1.21	0.37	0.11	0.03	0.01
JAC	1-7	0.385	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	0-9	0.263	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay

2020-11-09

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 9, Sunday

Kansas City over Green Bay

Tampa Bay lost by a huge margin to New Orleans, completely tanking their strength, as well as their division chances, thanks to the tiebreaking implications. Green Bay takes over as the NFC favorite, but there are 3 very strong AFC teams with a better chance to win. In the NFC the wealth is spread around a bit more, with teams 4-8 all being from the NFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	8-1	0.668	94.20	99.55	76.50	45.36	25.58	15.52
PIT	8-0	0.631	74.76	99.39	76.98	42.17	21.53	12.23
BAL	6-2	0.655	24.32	95.44	60.12	33.35	18.17	10.77
GB	6-2	0.580	79.18	92.95	62.85	33.42	17.40	7.93
NO	6-2	0.574	70.78	92.94	60.74	31.80	16.34	7.36
ARI	5-3	0.596	32.88	76.74	47.06	25.61	13.80	6.51
TB	6-3	0.587	28.05	79.43	48.62	25.86	13.66	6.33
LAR	5-3	0.588	24.65	73.51	45.17	24.12	12.78	5.93
MIA	5-3	0.615	35.60	77.49	42.71	20.82	10.38	5.71
SEA	6-2	0.546	40.20	86.80	54.38	26.45	12.71	5.36
IND	5-3	0.596	38.48	63.77	32.16	15.10	7.21	3.83
TEN	6-2	0.554	61.13	82.42	39.13	16.76	7.23	3.53
BUF	7-2	0.516	63.85	88.60	38.29	14.97	5.88	2.65
PHI	3-4-1	0.463	72.20	72.29	28.90	11.43	4.52	1.56
CHI	5-4	0.472	17.41	49.02	21.25	8.72	3.56	1.25
LV	5-3	0.481	5.66	45.80	17.70	6.26	2.28	0.95
SF	4-5	0.536	2.27	20.37	10.08	4.77	2.27	0.94
CLE	5-3	0.447	0.91	36.38	12.73	4.07	1.36	0.52
MIN	3-5	0.471	2.82	15.44	6.47	2.64	1.08	0.38
WAS	2-6	0.423	15.37	15.63	5.61	2.00	0.72	0.22
CAR	3-6	0.468	0.29	4.30	1.78	0.72	0.30	0.10
DET	3-5	0.426	0.59	5.93	2.22	0.81	0.30	0.09
NYG	2-7	0.391	6.91	6.93	2.29	0.75	0.25	0.07
ATL	3-6	0.486	0.88	2.16	0.92	0.39	0.17	0.06
LAC	2-6	0.480	0.03	2.00	0.73	0.25	0.09	0.04
DAL	2-7	0.361	5.52	5.55	1.67	0.50	0.15	0.04
NE	2-5	0.433	0.54	3.10	1.02	0.31	0.10	0.04
DEN	3-5	0.418	0.11	3.32	1.03	0.30	0.10	0.03
CIN	2-5-1	0.462	0.00	1.47	0.52	0.17	0.06	0.02
HOU	2-6	0.416	0.39	1.25	0.38	0.11	0.04	0.01
JAC	1-7	0.385	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	0-8	0.277	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay

2020-11-08

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 10

It's week 10 and we're still having teams join the season. 20 new teams played this week, bringing the total to 123 of a possible 130. The teams who have not played are as follows:

PAC-12: Arizona, California, Utah, Washington
Independents: UConn, New Mexico State
C-USA: Old Dominion

BYU won again and is the only 8-0 team, with #2 Clemson losing to #3 Notre Dame. I only caught the overtime of that game, and really nothing else the rest of the day. I'm still not sure if I like college's overtime format. It's going to be harder than ever to justify leaving out a non-Power-5 team this year if BYU keeps winning. They've only got 2 games left, one against FCS punching bag North Alabama, and one against #69 San Diego State. They'll have next week off, the FCS game, then 2 more weeks off.

Missouri had the week off but gained 4 spots to reach #57.

Weird stuff is going on at the bottom of the chart, where #122 UL Monroe to fall to 0-8 but #123 Vanderbilt passed them with a loss to fall to merely 0-5.

1	BYU	8-0
2	Clemson	7-1
3	Notre Dame	7-0
4	Coastal Carolina	7-0
5	SMU	7-1
6	Miami	6-1
7	Louisiana	6-1
8	Alabama	6-0
9	Marshall	6-0
10	Cincinnati	6-0
11	Liberty	7-0
12	Oklahoma State	5-1
13	Texas	5-2
14	North Carolina	5-2
15	Texas A&M	5-1
16	Iowa State	5-2
17	Army	6-1
18	Boston College	5-3
19	Oklahoma	5-2
20	Georgia Southern	5-2
21	Appalachian State	5-1
22	Virginia Tech	4-3
23	NC State	4-3
24	Georgia	4-2
25	Florida	4-1
26	UAB	4-3
27	Louisiana Tech	4-3
28	Wake Forest	4-2
29	Memphis	4-2
30	UCF	4-2
31	UTSA	4-4
32	Kansas State	4-3
33	Auburn	4-2
34	Troy	4-3
35	Pittsburgh	4-4
36	West Virginia	4-3
37	Florida Atlantic	3-1
38	Tulane	4-4
39	Arkansas State	3-5
40	TCU	3-3
41	Arkansas	3-3
42	Tulsa	3-1
43	Northwestern	3-0
44	San Jose State	3-0
45	Georgia State	3-3
46	Indiana	3-0
47	Ohio State	3-0
48	UTEP	3-3
49	Nevada	3-0
50	Navy	3-4
51	Houston	2-3
52	Virginia	2-4
53	South Alabama	3-4
54	Florida State	2-5
55	Boise State	2-1
56	Charlotte	2-3
57	Missouri	2-3
58	Purdue	2-0
59	Texas Tech	2-5
60	Louisville	2-5
61	Georgia Tech	2-5
62	Tennessee	2-4
63	Duke	2-6
64	Maryland	2-1
65	Hawai'i	2-1
66	Fresno State	2-1
67	Ole Miss	2-4
68	Kentucky	2-4
69	San Diego State	2-1
70	Western Kentucky	2-6
71	Mississippi State	2-4
T-72	South Carolina	2-4
T-72	North Texas	2-3
74	LSU	2-3
T-75	Kent State	1-0
T-75	Western Michigan	1-0
T-75	Buffalo	1-0
T-75	Central Michigan	1-0
T-75	Miami (OH)	1-0
T-75	Toledo	1-0
T-75	Oregon	1-0
T-75	USC	1-0
T-75	Colorado	1-0
T-75	Washington State	1-0
85	Southern Mississippi	2-5
86	Wisconsin	1-0
87	Air Force	1-2
88	Colorado State	1-1
89	Middle Tennessee	2-5
90	Rice	1-1
91	Rutgers	1-2
92	Wyoming	1-2
93	Iowa	1-2
94	Syracuse	1-7
95	Baylor	1-4
96	Temple	1-4
97	Michigan	1-2
98	Texas State	1-8
99	Michigan State	1-2
100	Minnesota	1-2
101	UMass	0-2
102	East Carolina	1-5
T-103	Eastern Michigan	0-1
T-103	Akron	0-1
T-103	Northern Illinois	0-1
T-103	Ohio	0-1
T-103	Ball State	0-1
T-103	Bowling Green	0-1
T-103	Stanford	0-1
T-103	Arizona State	0-1
T-103	UCLA	0-1
T-103	Oregon State	0-1
113	Nebraska	0-2
114	New Mexico	0-2
115	South Florida	1-6
116	Penn State	0-3
117	Florida International	0-3
118	Utah State	0-3
119	UNLV	0-3
120	Kansas	0-7
121	Illinois	0-3
122	UL Monroe	0-8
123	Vanderbilt	0-5

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU
Week 6 BYU
Week 7 BYU
Week 8 BYU
Week 9 BYU

2020-11-06

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 9, Thursday

Kansas City over Tampa Bay

Green Bay beat San Francisco on Thursday night to move up to 6-2, but are still quite a bit behind 6-2 Tampa Bay. They've got a worse point differential, which, after cascading through all the playoff rounds, lowers their winning chances by quite a bit by comparison. They're still 15% likely to make the Super Bowl, though.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	7-1	0.664	94.03	99.16	76.23	45.51	26.06	15.39
TB	6-2	0.638	68.88	91.78	66.12	39.38	22.98	12.09
PIT	7-0	0.619	77.91	99.17	76.49	41.77	21.15	11.48
BAL	5-2	0.627	20.17	88.91	52.73	27.83	14.52	8.01
ARI	5-2	0.602	34.88	81.40	52.08	28.37	15.14	7.40
GB	6-2	0.580	71.27	91.23	57.74	30.13	15.27	7.11
SEA	6-1	0.561	47.57	91.07	61.23	30.56	14.82	6.62
IND	5-2	0.614	57.59	81.70	47.23	24.02	12.15	6.54
MIA	4-3	0.612	39.73	71.87	40.07	19.91	10.09	5.41
LAR	5-3	0.588	16.26	68.61	41.11	21.46	11.12	5.27
TEN	5-2	0.541	42.13	75.06	35.12	14.92	6.39	2.96
NO	5-2	0.515	30.12	72.46	37.29	16.54	7.26	2.92
BUF	6-2	0.498	58.89	79.61	33.87	12.96	4.99	2.10
CHI	5-3	0.488	25.63	58.78	26.99	11.27	4.66	1.76
PHI	3-4-1	0.463	64.72	64.96	25.86	10.00	3.85	1.36
SF	4-5	0.536	1.29	18.53	8.96	4.12	1.92	0.81
LV	4-3	0.472	4.86	35.17	13.50	4.82	1.77	0.70
CLE	5-3	0.447	1.90	43.12	15.52	5.14	1.76	0.66
WAS	2-5	0.430	24.68	25.17	9.17	3.26	1.15	0.37
DET	3-4	0.450	2.00	11.77	4.69	1.78	0.68	0.23
LAC	2-5	0.489	0.42	8.79	3.38	1.25	0.48	0.20
CAR	3-5	0.471	0.61	5.87	2.42	0.97	0.39	0.14
MIN	2-5	0.448	1.11	6.75	2.58	0.97	0.37	0.13
DEN	3-4	0.429	0.69	9.40	3.10	0.97	0.32	0.12
NE	2-5	0.433	1.37	4.55	1.55	0.49	0.17	0.06
DAL	2-6	0.373	7.44	7.51	2.33	0.71	0.21	0.06
CIN	2-5-1	0.463	0.02	2.44	0.88	0.30	0.11	0.04
NYG	1-7	0.387	3.16	3.17	1.03	0.33	0.10	0.03
ATL	2-6	0.473	0.39	0.95	0.38	0.16	0.06	0.02
HOU	1-6	0.415	0.22	0.83	0.26	0.08	0.03	0.01
JAC	1-6	0.391	0.06	0.22	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00
NYJ	0-8	0.277	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay

2020-11-03

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 8, Final

Kansas City over Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay really struggled to beat the 1-6 Giants, but ultimately did so. In the standings, the win is what's most important, but in projecting future games, points really matter. They did improve their chances of reaching each round just a little bit. New Orleans' 5-2 record is really what's hindering Tampa Bay from being a near-lock for their division like Kansas City (second place Las Vegas is 2.5 games back, but with a head-to-head win) and Pittsburgh (second place Baltimore is 2 games back with 1 head-to-head loss)

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	7-1	0.664	94.03	99.16	76.20	45.49	26.05	15.45
TB	6-2	0.638	69.30	91.51	66.63	39.96	23.47	12.35
PIT	7-0	0.619	77.91	99.17	76.47	41.75	21.13	11.53
BAL	5-2	0.627	20.17	88.89	52.70	27.81	14.51	8.04
ARI	5-2	0.602	34.21	80.54	52.63	28.89	15.52	7.58
SEA	6-1	0.561	46.46	90.37	61.97	31.08	15.19	6.79
IND	5-2	0.614	57.59	82.05	47.50	24.16	12.22	6.61
MIA	4-3	0.612	40.32	71.93	40.09	19.92	10.09	5.44
LAR	5-3	0.588	15.49	66.56	40.60	21.35	11.13	5.27
GB	5-2	0.552	60.09	78.27	44.30	21.73	10.40	4.55
TEN	5-2	0.541	42.14	75.45	35.32	15.00	6.43	3.00
NO	5-2	0.515	29.66	70.28	37.21	16.65	7.35	2.96
SF	4-4	0.569	3.84	36.87	20.31	10.14	5.08	2.31
BUF	6-2	0.498	58.28	79.01	33.55	12.84	4.94	2.10
CHI	5-3	0.488	34.65	59.76	27.87	11.75	4.88	1.84
PHI	3-4-1	0.463	65.79	65.99	26.18	10.27	3.98	1.41
LV	4-3	0.472	4.86	35.13	13.47	4.81	1.77	0.71
CLE	5-3	0.447	1.90	43.04	15.48	5.13	1.76	0.66
WAS	2-5	0.430	23.90	24.37	8.86	3.20	1.14	0.37
DET	3-4	0.450	3.24	11.79	4.78	1.83	0.70	0.24
LAC	2-5	0.489	0.42	8.77	3.37	1.24	0.48	0.20
CAR	3-5	0.471	0.64	5.94	2.51	1.01	0.41	0.15
MIN	2-5	0.448	2.02	6.51	2.54	0.96	0.37	0.13
DEN	3-4	0.429	0.69	9.38	3.09	0.97	0.32	0.12
NE	2-5	0.433	1.40	4.55	1.55	0.49	0.17	0.06
DAL	2-6	0.373	7.17	7.23	2.24	0.69	0.21	0.06
CIN	2-5-1	0.463	0.02	2.43	0.88	0.30	0.11	0.04
NYG	1-7	0.387	3.14	3.15	1.02	0.33	0.10	0.03
ATL	2-6	0.473	0.40	0.86	0.35	0.15	0.06	0.02
HOU	1-6	0.415	0.21	0.82	0.26	0.08	0.02	0.01
JAC	1-6	0.391	0.06	0.23	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00
NYJ	0-8	0.277	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay

2020-11-02

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Kansas City over Tampa Bay

Kansas City and Pittsburgh won their 7th game each, and are now both over 99% likely to make the playoffs. We're only a little under halfway done with the season, but remember that this year it will be even more important to be the #1 team instead of the #2 team in the conference, with only one first round bye available. I've still got the Jets with some chance of making the playoffs despite their terrible record and strength, but those days may be short, because as of this week's run it only happened about 75 in every 100 million runs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	7-1	0.664	94.08	99.16	75.89	45.15	25.81	15.40
PIT	7-0	0.619	78.43	99.20	76.67	41.73	21.09	11.59
TB	5-2	0.631	64.21	87.33	61.34	36.33	21.04	10.89
BAL	5-2	0.627	19.75	88.78	52.38	27.57	14.36	8.01
ARI	5-2	0.602	34.17	80.94	53.58	29.54	16.01	7.81
SEA	6-1	0.561	46.38	90.63	63.06	31.73	15.66	6.99
IND	5-2	0.614	54.83	81.22	46.62	23.65	11.95	6.51
LAR	5-3	0.588	15.60	67.25	41.43	21.92	11.52	5.45
MIA	4-3	0.612	40.62	72.19	40.05	19.87	10.04	5.45
GB	5-2	0.552	60.05	78.27	44.80	22.13	10.68	4.67
TEN	5-2	0.556	44.92	77.96	37.81	16.62	7.36	3.57
NO	5-2	0.515	34.40	71.14	37.75	17.09	7.60	3.05
SF	4-4	0.569	3.85	37.55	20.86	10.50	5.30	2.40
BUF	6-2	0.498	57.99	78.90	33.30	12.71	4.88	2.09
CHI	5-3	0.488	34.63	60.15	28.30	12.03	5.03	1.89
PHI	3-4-1	0.463	64.44	64.67	25.68	10.16	3.97	1.40
LV	4-3	0.472	4.82	34.91	13.31	4.74	1.74	0.70
CLE	5-3	0.447	1.80	42.17	15.09	4.98	1.71	0.65
WAS	2-5	0.430	23.59	24.08	8.76	3.19	1.15	0.37
DET	3-4	0.450	3.26	12.02	4.92	1.90	0.74	0.25
LAC	2-5	0.489	0.42	8.69	3.33	1.22	0.47	0.20
CAR	3-5	0.471	0.82	6.15	2.62	1.07	0.44	0.16
MIN	2-5	0.448	2.07	6.72	2.64	1.01	0.39	0.13
DEN	3-4	0.429	0.68	9.35	3.06	0.96	0.32	0.12
NE	2-5	0.433	1.39	4.51	1.53	0.48	0.16	0.06
DAL	2-6	0.373	7.07	7.14	2.21	0.69	0.21	0.06
NYG	1-6	0.391	4.90	4.93	1.62	0.53	0.17	0.05
CIN	2-5-1	0.445	0.01	1.94	0.67	0.21	0.08	0.03
ATL	2-6	0.473	0.57	1.04	0.43	0.18	0.07	0.03
HOU	1-6	0.414	0.20	0.80	0.25	0.08	0.02	0.01
JAC	1-6	0.391	0.05	0.22	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
NYJ	0-8	0.277	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay

2020-11-01

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

We gained just 2 more teams this week, Colorado State and New Mexico.

Just like I said last week, BYU and Clemson won again. Clemson nearly came up short without their star QB, and as someone who typically roots for chaos, I was quite excited to see the score update come to my phone. Alas, they held on to win.

Missouri returned to form against Florida, losing 41-17, dropping them to #61.

UL Monroe lost again and remains in last place, now down at #103.

1	BYU	7-0
2	Clemson	7-0
3	Alabama	6-0
4	SMU	6-1
5	Coastal Carolina	6-0
6	Notre Dame	6-0
7	Miami	5-1
8	Louisiana	5-1
9	Marshall	5-0
10	Cincinnati	5-0
11	Army	6-1
12	Liberty	6-0
13	NC State	4-2
14	Virginia Tech	4-2
15	UAB	4-3
16	Georgia	4-1
17	Oklahoma State	4-1
18	North Carolina	4-2
19	Wake Forest	4-2
20	Iowa State	4-2
21	Texas	4-2
22	Louisiana Tech	4-3
23	Oklahoma	4-2
24	Boston College	4-3
25	UTSA	4-4
26	Kansas State	4-2
27	UCF	4-2
28	Texas A&M	4-1
29	Troy	4-2
30	Appalachian State	4-1
31	Auburn	4-2
32	West Virginia	4-2
33	Georgia Southern	4-2
34	Memphis	3-2
35	Arkansas State	3-4
36	Florida	3-1
37	Tulsa	3-1
38	Pittsburgh	3-4
39	Florida Atlantic	2-1
40	UTEP	3-3
41	Tulane	3-4
42	Navy	3-4
43	Houston	2-2
44	Virginia	2-4
45	South Alabama	3-3
46	Georgia State	2-3
47	TCU	2-3
48	San Jose State	2-0
49	Indiana	2-0
50	Nevada	2-0
51	Boise State	2-0
52	Florida State	2-4
53	Northwestern	2-0
54	Texas Tech	2-4
55	Ohio State	2-0
56	Tennessee	2-3
57	San Diego State	2-0
58	Arkansas	2-3
59	Purdue	2-0
60	Charlotte	2-3
61	Missouri	2-3
62	Louisville	2-5
63	Duke	2-5
64	Georgia Tech	2-5
65	Western Kentucky	2-5
66	Ole Miss	2-4
67	South Carolina	2-3
68	Kentucky	2-4
69	North Texas	2-3
70	Wisconsin	1-0
71	LSU	2-3
T-72	Wyoming	1-1
T-72	Rutgers	1-1
74	Air Force	1-2
75	Middle Tennessee	2-5
76	Hawai'i	1-1
77	Michigan State	1-1
78	Maryland	1-1
79	Rice	1-1
80	Fresno State	1-1
81	Michigan	1-1
82	Syracuse	1-6
83	Baylor	1-3
84	Temple	1-3
85	Mississippi State	1-4
86	Texas State	1-7
87	East Carolina	1-4
88	Southern Mississippi	1-5
89	UMass	0-1
90	New Mexico	0-1
91	Nebraska	0-1
92	Colorado State	0-1
93	Penn State	0-2
94	UNLV	0-2
95	Utah State	0-2
96	Iowa	0-2
97	South Florida	1-5
98	Illinois	0-2
99	Florida International	0-3
100	Minnesota	0-2
101	Kansas	0-6
102	Vanderbilt	0-4
103	UL Monroe	0-7

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU
Week 6 BYU
Week 7 BYU
Week 8 BYU

2020-10-30

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 8, Thursday

Kansas City over Tampa Bay

I should really start tracking the combined records of teams we're forced to watch in primetime with no competition. And yes I acknowledge I could just not watch football, but what's the fun in that? Thursday's teams were 1-6 Atlanta vs 3-4 Carolina. 4-10 is not a good football team. Usually that means very little will change as a result of the game, and this week was no exception. Atlanta pulled off the upset, and gave their division rival Tampa Bay a slight boost in chances to win the NFC South, but they were already pretty far ahead of these two teams, and remain only 1 win ahead of New Orleans.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	6-1	0.625	91.67	97.88	70.55	39.89	21.62	11.92
PIT	6-0	0.611	56.17	97.58	70.86	38.63	20.27	10.87
TB	5-2	0.631	70.69	85.88	58.93	34.68	19.94	10.75
BAL	5-1	0.628	39.68	93.49	62.39	34.93	19.14	10.62
LAR	5-2	0.608	26.17	74.97	49.73	27.46	14.98	7.72
ARI	5-2	0.603	35.22	77.00	49.60	27.13	14.62	7.46
GB	5-1	0.560	63.76	85.23	54.15	27.24	13.23	6.17
TEN	5-1	0.558	63.33	87.16	47.30	22.15	10.27	4.95
SEA	5-1	0.547	27.13	73.81	45.07	21.68	10.29	4.67
IND	4-2	0.584	36.40	68.62	37.42	18.45	9.12	4.64
SF	4-3	0.591	11.48	51.83	31.15	16.42	8.59	4.28
MIA	3-3	0.592	36.29	58.83	31.52	15.66	7.90	4.09
CHI	5-2	0.495	31.85	68.30	35.38	15.15	6.34	2.56
NO	4-2	0.510	27.44	54.31	27.16	12.14	5.32	2.22
BUF	5-2	0.492	56.90	69.80	29.77	11.85	4.74	1.98
CLE	5-2	0.467	4.15	63.84	26.19	9.63	3.62	1.42
PHI	2-4-1	0.439	46.35	46.45	17.43	6.41	2.34	0.82
DET	3-3	0.484	3.90	19.82	9.01	3.76	1.56	0.61
LAC	2-4	0.490	2.40	18.83	7.72	3.02	1.22	0.51
LV	3-3	0.460	5.13	24.03	9.24	3.37	1.26	0.49
WAS	2-5	0.430	27.52	27.73	10.14	3.64	1.29	0.44
DAL	2-5	0.399	20.12	20.20	6.81	2.25	0.74	0.23
NE	2-4	0.439	6.80	11.68	4.23	1.46	0.52	0.19
CAR	3-5	0.471	1.10	5.25	2.19	0.90	0.36	0.14
DEN	2-4	0.424	0.80	6.06	2.07	0.68	0.23	0.08
NYG	1-6	0.391	6.01	6.03	1.99	0.65	0.21	0.06
MIN	1-5	0.440	0.49	2.17	0.83	0.31	0.12	0.04
ATL	2-6	0.473	0.77	1.01	0.41	0.18	0.07	0.03
CIN	1-5-1	0.443	0.01	1.05	0.38	0.13	0.05	0.02
HOU	1-6	0.414	0.21	0.89	0.29	0.09	0.03	0.01
JAC	1-6	0.390	0.06	0.24	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00
NYJ	0-7	0.309	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay

2020-10-27

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 7, Final

Kansas City over Tampa Bay

We had a pretty good matchup Monday, with Chicago and LA coming into the game a combined 9-3, and of course exiting a combined 10-4. LA was behind in record but ahead in strength, and won the game to put both teams at 5-2. Chicago actually has a negative point differential now, so one would expect them to be a bit below .500. Buffalo and Cleveland are actually both 5-2 and even weaker. We'll see if those teams can maintain their luck long enough to sneak into the playoffs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	6-1	0.625	91.57	97.86	70.52	39.87	21.61	11.93
PIT	6-0	0.611	56.18	97.57	70.87	38.64	20.28	10.88
TB	5-2	0.631	69.40	85.20	58.70	34.57	19.90	10.73
BAL	5-1	0.628	39.68	93.47	62.39	34.94	19.15	10.63
LAR	5-2	0.608	26.17	74.22	49.36	27.29	14.90	7.68
ARI	5-2	0.603	35.23	76.10	49.11	26.90	14.51	7.40
GB	5-1	0.560	63.57	84.51	53.64	27.02	13.13	6.13
TEN	5-1	0.558	63.32	87.14	47.28	22.15	10.27	4.96
IND	4-2	0.584	36.41	68.58	37.41	18.45	9.12	4.64
SEA	5-1	0.547	27.12	73.00	44.67	21.52	10.23	4.64
SF	4-3	0.591	11.48	50.80	30.62	16.15	8.46	4.21
MIA	3-3	0.592	36.30	58.80	31.51	15.66	7.89	4.09
CHI	5-2	0.495	32.06	67.78	35.19	15.09	6.33	2.55
NO	4-2	0.510	26.87	53.63	26.95	12.05	5.28	2.20
BUF	5-2	0.492	56.90	69.77	29.75	11.85	4.73	1.98
CLE	5-2	0.467	4.14	63.76	26.16	9.62	3.61	1.42
PHI	2-4-1	0.439	46.51	46.60	17.51	6.45	2.35	0.83
DET	3-3	0.484	3.88	19.07	8.69	3.63	1.51	0.59
LAC	2-4	0.490	2.43	18.97	7.78	3.05	1.23	0.51
LV	3-3	0.460	5.20	24.21	9.31	3.40	1.27	0.49
WAS	2-5	0.430	27.27	27.46	10.06	3.61	1.28	0.44
CAR	3-4	0.488	3.38	12.80	5.70	2.42	1.02	0.40
DAL	2-5	0.399	20.18	20.25	6.84	2.27	0.74	0.23
NE	2-4	0.439	6.80	11.66	4.22	1.46	0.52	0.19
DEN	2-4	0.424	0.80	6.02	2.05	0.68	0.23	0.08
NYG	1-6	0.391	6.04	6.05	2.00	0.65	0.21	0.06
MIN	1-5	0.440	0.49	2.07	0.79	0.29	0.11	0.04
CIN	1-5-1	0.443	0.01	1.05	0.38	0.13	0.05	0.02
ATL	1-6	0.461	0.35	0.45	0.18	0.07	0.03	0.01
HOU	1-6	0.414	0.21	0.89	0.29	0.09	0.03	0.01
JAC	1-6	0.390	0.06	0.24	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00
NYJ	0-7	0.309	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

24 teams joined the season already in progress, bringing us to an even 100. That means we're still 30 teams short, but it's starting to feel like a real season. Except, of course, for the massive differential in games played. This post is a bit late this week because I had layers of confusion about which teams were added. At first I saw 23 new teams, but I forgot than my software does not like the accent in San José State. Once I fixed that, we were up to 24. But the fact that there were only 11 teams in the big pileups of ties meant that only those 22 teams came out of 1-0 vs 0-1 matchups. That's because the whole Big 10 and most of the Mountain West began play this week, but Air Force had already played a game. Long story short, #96 Rice also randomly started this week, after having several conference games scheduled. C-USA has sort of a microcosm of football as a whole, where teams have played very different numbers of games.

BYU and Clemson won again while SMU lost, solidifying them at #1 and #2. #4 Alabama and #5 Marshall are sneaking up though, both a win behind at 5-0

Missouri is up to #44 thanks to a win over #54 Kentucky. Everyone acted as though this was a big win for Missouri, but Kentucky really doesn't look all that good. I guess Missouri doesn't either, so it's a good win.

UL Monroe lost to hold tight onto last place, which is now #101. That feels much worse than last week's #77, even though both were last place.

1	BYU	6-0
2	Clemson	6-0
3	Miami	5-1
4	Alabama	5-0
5	Marshall	5-0
6	SMU	5-1
7	Coastal Carolina	5-0
8	Army	6-1
9	Liberty	6-0
10	Notre Dame	5-0
11	Louisiana	4-1
12	UAB	4-2
13	North Carolina	4-1
14	Oklahoma State	4-0
15	Cincinnati	4-0
16	UTSA	4-3
17	NC State	4-2
18	Kansas State	4-1
19	Boston College	4-2
20	Georgia	3-1
21	Memphis	3-1
T-22	Arkansas State	3-3
T-22	Iowa State	3-2
24	Virginia Tech	3-2
25	Appalachian State	3-1
T-26	Louisiana Tech	3-3
T-26	Wake Forest	3-2
28	Oklahoma	3-2
29	Texas A&M	3-1
30	UCF	3-2
31	Texas	3-2
32	Auburn	3-2
33	Troy	3-2
34	Pittsburgh	3-4
T-35	Navy	3-3
T-35	West Virginia	3-2
37	Houston	2-1
38	Georgia Southern	3-2
39	South Alabama	3-2
40	UTEP	3-3
41	Georgia State	2-2
42	Tulsa	2-1
43	Florida State	2-4
44	Missouri	2-2
45	Florida	2-1
T-46	Tennessee	2-3
T-46	Charlotte	2-2
48	Texas Tech	2-3
49	Louisville	2-4
50	Arkansas	2-2
51	Tulane	2-4
52	Georgia Tech	2-4
53	Western Kentucky	2-4
54	Kentucky	2-3
55	Florida Atlantic	1-1
56	South Carolina	2-3
57	North Texas	2-3
58	LSU	2-2
59	San Jose State	1-0
60	TCU	1-3
61	Air Force	1-1
T-62	Wisconsin	1-0
T-62	Ohio State	1-0
T-62	Indiana	1-0
T-62	Michigan	1-0
T-62	Rutgers	1-0
T-62	Purdue	1-0
T-62	Boise State	1-0
T-62	Nevada	1-0
T-62	Hawai'i	1-0
T-62	Northwestern	1-0
T-62	San Diego State	1-0
73	Virginia	1-4
74	Middle Tennessee	2-5
75	Temple	1-2
76	Baylor	1-2
77	Southern Mississippi	1-4
78	Ole Miss	1-4
79	Mississippi State	1-3
80	Syracuse	1-5
81	East Carolina	1-3
82	Texas State	1-6
83	Duke	1-5
84	UMass	0-1
T-85	Illinois	0-1
T-85	Nebraska	0-1
T-85	Penn State	0-1
T-85	Minnesota	0-1
T-85	Michigan State	0-1
T-85	Iowa	0-1
T-85	Utah State	0-1
T-85	Wyoming	0-1
T-85	Fresno State	0-1
T-85	Maryland	0-1
T-85	UNLV	0-1
96	Rice	0-1
97	South Florida	1-5
98	Florida International	0-3
99	Vanderbilt	0-3
100	Kansas	0-5
101	UL Monroe	0-6

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU
Week 6 BYU
Week 7 BYU

2020-10-26

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 7, Sunday

Kansas City over Tampa Bay

As often seems to happen, when the conference favorite has a bye week, they lose their position for a week. Baltimore had the week off, and Kansas City had a big win to retake the top AFC spot, which they had between week 3 and 5, on and off. Tampa Bay also had a pretty big win - a 25-point victory - to solidify their place atop the NFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	6-1	0.625	91.58	97.86	70.55	39.90	21.62	12.04
PIT	6-0	0.611	56.17	97.57	70.87	38.64	20.28	10.98
TB	5-2	0.631	70.24	85.86	58.42	34.52	20.09	10.84
BAL	5-1	0.628	39.68	93.46	62.39	34.94	19.14	10.72
ARI	5-2	0.603	39.37	77.58	49.26	27.22	14.83	7.56
GB	5-1	0.560	53.36	83.54	53.05	26.86	13.19	6.15
TEN	5-1	0.558	62.89	86.81	47.01	22.01	10.20	4.98
SEA	5-1	0.547	30.82	74.39	44.83	21.82	10.48	4.75
CHI	5-1	0.528	43.43	81.83	50.79	23.77	10.83	4.71
IND	4-2	0.584	36.84	68.63	37.44	18.47	9.13	4.69
LAR	4-2	0.578	16.90	56.97	34.13	17.77	9.16	4.44
SF	4-3	0.591	12.91	52.07	30.86	16.45	8.70	4.33
MIA	3-3	0.592	36.77	59.34	31.84	15.82	7.98	4.17
NO	4-2	0.510	26.05	53.16	26.47	11.93	5.29	2.21
BUF	5-2	0.492	56.34	69.49	29.64	11.80	4.71	2.00
CLE	5-2	0.467	4.14	63.69	26.13	9.60	3.61	1.44
PHI	2-4-1	0.439	46.51	46.61	17.79	6.57	2.42	0.85
DET	3-3	0.484	2.89	18.69	8.49	3.60	1.51	0.59
LAC	2-4	0.490	2.43	18.96	7.77	3.04	1.23	0.52
LV	3-3	0.460	5.20	24.15	9.28	3.39	1.27	0.50
WAS	2-5	0.430	27.27	27.47	10.22	3.68	1.32	0.45
CAR	3-4	0.488	3.36	13.20	5.81	2.50	1.06	0.42
DAL	2-5	0.399	20.18	20.26	6.95	2.31	0.77	0.24
NE	2-4	0.439	6.88	11.89	4.30	1.49	0.53	0.20
DEN	2-4	0.424	0.79	6.01	2.05	0.67	0.23	0.08
NYG	1-6	0.391	6.04	6.05	2.03	0.66	0.21	0.07
MIN	1-5	0.440	0.33	1.86	0.71	0.27	0.10	0.04
CIN	1-5-1	0.443	0.01	1.04	0.37	0.13	0.05	0.02
ATL	1-6	0.461	0.34	0.46	0.18	0.08	0.03	0.01
HOU	1-6	0.414	0.20	0.85	0.28	0.09	0.03	0.01
JAC	1-6	0.390	0.06	0.22	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00
NYJ	0-7	0.309	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay

2020-10-23

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Baltimore over Tampa Bay

The NFC East is really bad this year, and I can't imagine a matchup with less implications than the one we had Thursday night, where Philadelphia beat the New York Giants. Philadelphia bumped up one spot to now be ahead of Dallas in championship chances (a whopping 0.87%!), and the Giants fell one spot to be behind Atlanta (both at 0.06%), and pretty much nothing else changed. Philadelphia and Dallas are now close to tied at a bit over 41% each to win that terrible division, even though Philadelphia's most likely outcome in all my simulations is to finish with 6 wins.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	5-1	0.628	46.84	92.92	64.14	36.64	20.68	11.95
PIT	5-0	0.602	49.79	94.56	65.79	35.52	18.84	10.37
KC	5-1	0.586	75.08	91.90	58.83	30.63	15.51	8.28
TB	4-2	0.597	61.01	78.69	49.48	27.99	15.57	8.04
ARI	4-2	0.602	27.72	71.35	45.80	25.90	14.57	7.59
SEA	5-0	0.552	49.50	87.41	60.08	30.58	15.45	7.28
TEN	5-0	0.560	69.27	91.36	56.20	27.62	13.17	6.69
LAR	4-2	0.578	16.96	63.06	39.09	20.98	11.20	5.57
CHI	5-1	0.528	52.28	85.72	54.05	26.19	12.42	5.56
IND	4-2	0.584	30.17	67.41	37.89	19.29	9.76	5.19
GB	4-1	0.536	44.36	77.51	46.24	22.84	11.05	5.03
MIA	3-3	0.592	38.91	57.91	31.55	16.20	8.35	4.51
SF	3-3	0.537	5.82	36.12	19.47	9.55	4.67	2.13
NO	3-2	0.505	25.15	46.54	23.10	10.68	4.85	2.06
BUF	4-2	0.479	41.77	54.35	22.59	9.01	3.59	1.54
LV	3-2	0.498	16.85	40.39	17.84	7.45	3.11	1.39
CAR	3-3	0.494	12.47	30.91	14.51	6.54	2.90	1.20
CLE	4-2	0.461	3.29	46.45	19.23	7.23	2.76	1.13
NE	2-3	0.498	19.26	28.92	12.43	5.19	2.17	0.97
PHI	2-4-1	0.439	41.22	41.51	16.16	6.25	2.41	0.87
DAL	2-4	0.436	41.54	41.89	16.12	6.18	2.36	0.85
DET	2-3	0.483	2.84	16.92	7.86	3.43	1.49	0.60
DEN	2-3	0.477	6.10	18.04	7.40	2.92	1.17	0.50
LAC	1-4	0.470	1.97	9.64	3.88	1.49	0.59	0.25
WAS	1-5	0.396	12.21	12.42	4.30	1.48	0.51	0.16
ATL	1-5	0.464	1.37	2.27	0.94	0.40	0.17	0.06
NYG	1-6	0.391	5.02	5.06	1.73	0.59	0.20	0.06
CIN	1-4-1	0.445	0.07	3.08	1.16	0.42	0.16	0.06
MIN	1-5	0.440	0.52	2.64	1.06	0.42	0.16	0.06
HOU	1-5	0.439	0.41	2.06	0.76	0.27	0.10	0.04
JAC	1-5	0.403	0.15	0.90	0.30	0.10	0.03	0.01
NYJ	0-6	0.334	0.06	0.09	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay

2020-10-20

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 6, Final

Baltimore over Tampa Bay

Tampa took over the NFC lead from Seattle despite neither team playing on Monday night. What did happen was Arizona winning big over Dallas, making them the strongest team in the NFC West, even though they are a game and a half behind Seattle currently. That competition diminished their playoff chances just enough to push them just below Tampa Bay.
In the AFC, Kansas City played Buffalo, and inched their way closer to the top, tied at 5-1 with Baltimore. Thanks to the points scored and points allowed system I used, Baltimore is still the superior team.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	5-1	0.628	46.80	92.90	64.10	36.62	20.67	11.94
PIT	5-0	0.602	49.85	94.57	65.81	35.53	18.85	10.38
KC	5-1	0.586	75.09	91.91	58.84	30.64	15.51	8.28
TB	4-2	0.597	60.99	78.66	49.49	28.01	15.59	8.05
ARI	4-2	0.602	27.71	71.29	45.80	25.91	14.57	7.59
SEA	5-0	0.552	49.46	87.37	60.08	30.59	15.46	7.28
TEN	5-0	0.560	69.27	91.37	56.20	27.63	13.17	6.69
LAR	4-2	0.578	16.99	63.11	39.17	21.02	11.23	5.58
CHI	5-1	0.528	52.31	85.75	54.14	26.25	12.45	5.57
IND	4-2	0.584	30.17	67.43	37.90	19.29	9.76	5.19
GB	4-1	0.536	44.33	77.53	46.29	22.87	11.07	5.04
MIA	3-3	0.592	38.93	57.94	31.57	16.21	8.35	4.51
SF	3-3	0.537	5.84	36.20	19.53	9.58	4.68	2.13
NO	3-2	0.505	25.15	46.55	23.12	10.69	4.86	2.06
BUF	4-2	0.479	41.76	54.36	22.59	9.01	3.59	1.53
LV	3-2	0.498	16.84	40.40	17.84	7.45	3.12	1.39
CAR	3-3	0.494	12.48	30.94	14.53	6.55	2.91	1.20
CLE	4-2	0.461	3.28	46.35	19.19	7.21	2.75	1.13
NE	2-3	0.498	19.26	28.93	12.43	5.19	2.17	0.97
DAL	2-4	0.436	43.63	43.91	16.89	6.47	2.47	0.89
PHI	1-4-1	0.440	32.23	32.43	12.62	4.88	1.88	0.68
DET	2-3	0.483	2.84	16.93	7.88	3.44	1.50	0.60
DEN	2-3	0.477	6.09	18.05	7.40	2.92	1.17	0.50
LAC	1-4	0.470	1.98	9.65	3.88	1.49	0.59	0.25
WAS	1-5	0.396	13.03	13.21	4.57	1.58	0.54	0.17
NYG	1-5	0.395	11.11	11.19	3.88	1.34	0.46	0.15
ATL	1-5	0.464	1.37	2.27	0.94	0.40	0.17	0.06
CIN	1-4-1	0.445	0.07	3.06	1.16	0.42	0.16	0.06
MIN	1-5	0.440	0.52	2.65	1.07	0.42	0.16	0.06
HOU	1-5	0.439	0.41	2.06	0.76	0.27	0.10	0.04
JAC	1-5	0.403	0.15	0.91	0.30	0.10	0.03	0.01
NYJ	0-6	0.334	0.06	0.09	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle