Tenets of Wilson

2019-10-18

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 7, Thursday

New England over San Francisco

Here's a case where my system can't tell the whole story. Kansas City beat Denver 20-6 last night, but lost Patrick Mahomes for at least a few games it appears. So,while they are the second strongest AFC team, their expectations should probably be a little lower, unless Kansas City's backup QB can duplicate the performance of their starter.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	6-0	0.681	87.98	99.47	93.87	60.88	38.41	23.39
SF	5-0	0.632	75.70	92.26	81.23	47.57	27.52	14.51
KC	5-2	0.591	74.44	83.96	61.86	32.38	15.41	7.92
BAL	4-2	0.584	79.49	83.97	57.23	29.08	13.72	6.96
MIN	4-2	0.615	29.08	61.92	43.89	24.25	13.18	6.71
GB	5-1	0.557	51.35	75.20	55.22	27.18	12.94	5.84
BUF	4-1	0.556	11.99	85.35	49.02	21.47	10.00	4.78
HOU	4-2	0.552	54.46	71.11	49.12	22.80	9.95	4.71
CAR	4-2	0.560	41.85	57.50	37.96	18.54	8.87	4.03
DAL	3-3	0.577	53.97	56.41	31.90	16.02	8.03	3.79
NO	5-1	0.513	54.35	68.97	45.78	20.16	8.65	3.54
SEA	5-1	0.534	21.69	57.45	35.40	16.04	7.41	3.18
CHI	3-2	0.552	13.47	36.04	22.30	10.68	5.05	2.26
IND	3-2	0.496	31.11	47.74	27.66	11.08	4.26	1.78
PHI	3-3	0.522	39.21	42.14	21.34	9.50	4.22	1.76
OAK	3-2	0.460	16.96	38.25	19.56	7.12	2.53	0.97
DET	2-2-1	0.502	6.11	16.90	9.18	3.94	1.68	0.67
TEN	2-4	0.518	7.01	14.55	7.68	3.10	1.29	0.57
LAR	3-3	0.498	1.97	15.15	7.48	3.11	1.33	0.53
LAC	2-4	0.505	7.35	14.11	7.00	2.79	1.13	0.48
PIT	2-4	0.462	10.59	20.81	9.46	3.39	1.23	0.48
JAC	2-4	0.469	7.42	16.69	7.71	2.74	1.01	0.40
CLE	2-4	0.433	9.62	15.94	6.80	2.29	0.77	0.28
TB	2-4	0.481	3.15	6.64	3.04	1.21	0.49	0.19
NYG	2-4	0.407	6.48	7.74	2.92	0.97	0.33	0.10
ARI	2-3-1	0.435	0.63	4.33	1.84	0.66	0.24	0.08
DEN	2-5	0.438	1.25	4.14	1.74	0.56	0.20	0.07
NYJ	1-4	0.381	0.03	2.91	0.98	0.25	0.08	0.02
ATL	1-5	0.417	0.65	0.95	0.37	0.13	0.04	0.01
CIN	0-6	0.383	0.31	0.60	0.20	0.06	0.02	0.01
WAS	1-5	0.364	0.34	0.40	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00
MIA	0-5	0.348	0.00	0.40	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco

2019 World Series Projection, October 18

Houston over Washington

League Championship Series
NYY 1-3 HOU
WSH 4-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6673	91.30	61.86
NYY	0.6148	8.70	4.87
WSH	0.5888	100.00	33.27

With a 3-1 lead, it's looking pretty good for Houston. We had an unexpected idle day, the first one of the playoffs, when game 4 was delayed for weather, but it looks like they'll simply take away the travel day, assuming New York can force the series to go to game 6.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington
Oct 13: New York over Washington
Oct 14: Houston over Washington
Oct 15: Houston over Washington
Oct 16: Houston over Washington

2019-10-16

2019 World Series Projection, October 16

Houston over Washington

League Championship Series
NYY 1-2 HOU
WSH 4-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6673	76.76	52.01
NYY	0.6148	23.24	12.99
WSH	0.5888	100.00	35.00

Houston took a 2-1 lead in the AL, and Washington basiscally ended the NLCS in the first inning of game 4 by scoring 7 runs. St. Louis didn't give up right away, and did get 4 runs back, but couldn't salvage even one game of the series. Washington makes the World Series for the first time in franchise history (including their time in Montreal). The city hasn't had a World Series appearance since the 1930s, with the Washington Senators.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington
Oct 13: New York over Washington
Oct 14: Houston over Washington
Oct 15: Houston over Washington

2019-10-15

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 6, Final

New England over San Francisco

Green Bay won by a point, which wasn't enough to bring them close to San Francisco's NFC lead, though they are in second place by a fraction of a percentage point over Minnesota, 13.13% to 13.05%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	6-0	0.681	88.61	99.53	94.64	62.01	39.90	24.30
SF	5-0	0.632	75.71	92.23	81.19	47.54	27.50	14.65
BAL	4-2	0.585	79.83	84.33	59.81	31.63	15.00	7.61
MIN	4-2	0.615	28.34	61.54	43.49	24.02	13.05	6.72
GB	5-1	0.557	52.26	75.97	56.01	27.57	13.13	5.99
HOU	4-2	0.552	53.96	70.75	50.08	24.02	10.56	5.01
BUF	4-1	0.556	11.36	84.97	49.61	22.02	10.43	4.99
KC	4-2	0.548	55.04	65.44	42.90	20.29	8.87	4.18
CAR	4-2	0.560	41.85	57.44	37.89	18.50	8.85	4.07
DAL	3-3	0.577	53.97	56.41	31.87	16.00	8.02	3.83
NO	5-1	0.513	54.35	68.93	45.68	20.11	8.63	3.58
SEA	5-1	0.534	21.68	57.36	35.34	16.02	7.40	3.21
CHI	3-2	0.552	13.74	36.90	22.84	10.94	5.18	2.34
IND	3-2	0.496	30.77	47.78	28.49	11.78	4.57	1.91
PHI	3-3	0.522	39.21	42.13	21.32	9.49	4.22	1.78
OAK	3-2	0.460	24.45	40.09	21.68	8.12	2.89	1.11
TEN	2-4	0.518	7.56	15.46	8.47	3.50	1.47	0.65
DET	2-2-1	0.502	5.66	15.99	8.65	3.71	1.58	0.64
DEN	2-4	0.500	9.94	17.22	9.12	3.66	1.47	0.62
LAC	2-4	0.505	10.58	16.25	8.32	3.36	1.37	0.58
LAR	3-3	0.498	1.97	15.11	7.46	3.10	1.33	0.53
PIT	2-4	0.462	10.64	21.27	10.10	3.73	1.37	0.53
JAC	2-4	0.469	7.72	17.32	8.47	3.11	1.16	0.46
CLE	2-4	0.433	9.21	15.58	6.91	2.40	0.82	0.30
TB	2-4	0.481	3.15	6.62	3.03	1.20	0.49	0.19
NYG	2-4	0.407	6.47	7.73	2.92	0.97	0.33	0.10
ARI	2-3-1	0.435	0.63	4.29	1.82	0.65	0.24	0.08
NYJ	1-4	0.381	0.03	2.97	1.04	0.27	0.09	0.03
ATL	1-5	0.417	0.65	0.95	0.37	0.12	0.04	0.01
CIN	0-6	0.382	0.31	0.62	0.22	0.06	0.02	0.01
WAS	1-5	0.364	0.34	0.40	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00
MIA	0-5	0.348	0.00	0.42	0.13	0.03	0.01	0.00

2019 World Series Projection, October 15

Houston over Washington

League Championship Series
NYY 1-1 HOU
WSH 3-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6673	60.57	41.17
NYY	0.6148	39.43	22.14
WSH	0.5888	94.74	34.97
STL	0.5683	5.26	1.72

Washington won again, and the NLCS is tipped in their favor 3-0. It won't take a miracle, but it will take overcoming about 18:1 odds for St. Louis to make the World Series. Both LCSs play today, with the NL getting the prime time slot, I assume because of the potential clinching game.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington
Oct 13: New York over Washington
Oct 14: Houston over Washington

2019-10-14

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 6, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

San Francisco beat the LA Rams to strengthen their hold on the NFC at 5-0. New Orleans and Seattle are both 5-1, but significantly worse in terms of points scored and allowed. Green Bay plays Monday, so might be able to eat into the lead with a big win.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	6-0	0.681	88.61	99.53	94.64	62.01	39.90	24.32
SF	5-0	0.632	75.72	92.34	81.45	47.79	27.70	14.75
BAL	4-2	0.585	79.83	84.33	59.80	31.63	14.99	7.61
MIN	4-2	0.615	32.01	61.81	44.54	24.71	13.43	6.91
HOU	4-2	0.552	53.96	70.75	50.07	24.02	10.56	5.01
BUF	4-1	0.556	11.36	84.97	49.60	22.02	10.43	4.99
GB	4-1	0.555	41.21	64.83	45.97	22.49	10.69	4.86
KC	4-2	0.548	55.07	65.49	42.94	20.31	8.88	4.19
CAR	4-2	0.560	41.86	57.67	38.23	18.72	8.97	4.12
DAL	3-3	0.577	53.98	56.44	32.21	16.22	8.14	3.88
NO	5-1	0.513	54.35	69.14	46.39	20.49	8.80	3.65
SEA	5-1	0.534	21.68	57.75	35.70	16.20	7.50	3.26
CHI	3-2	0.552	15.55	37.23	23.48	11.28	5.34	2.41
IND	3-2	0.496	30.76	47.77	28.48	11.77	4.57	1.92
PHI	3-3	0.522	39.19	42.21	21.51	9.59	4.27	1.80
OAK	3-2	0.460	24.44	40.09	21.68	8.12	2.89	1.11
DET	2-1-1	0.504	11.23	25.03	14.53	6.31	2.69	1.09
TEN	2-4	0.518	7.56	15.46	8.47	3.50	1.47	0.65
DEN	2-4	0.500	9.92	17.19	9.11	3.65	1.47	0.62
LAC	2-4	0.505	10.57	16.25	8.32	3.37	1.37	0.59
LAR	3-3	0.498	1.97	15.33	7.58	3.15	1.35	0.54
PIT	2-4	0.462	10.65	21.27	10.10	3.73	1.37	0.53
JAC	2-4	0.469	7.72	17.32	8.47	3.11	1.16	0.46
CLE	2-4	0.433	9.21	15.58	6.91	2.40	0.82	0.30
TB	2-4	0.481	3.15	6.75	3.12	1.24	0.50	0.19
NYG	2-4	0.407	6.48	7.77	2.95	0.99	0.33	0.11
ARI	2-3-1	0.435	0.63	4.33	1.84	0.66	0.24	0.08
NYJ	1-4	0.381	0.03	2.97	1.04	0.27	0.09	0.03
ATL	1-5	0.417	0.65	0.96	0.37	0.13	0.04	0.01
CIN	0-6	0.382	0.31	0.62	0.22	0.06	0.02	0.01
WAS	1-5	0.364	0.34	0.40	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00
MIA	0-5	0.348	0.00	0.42	0.13	0.03	0.01	0.00

2019 World Series Projection, October 14

Houston over Washington

League Championship Series
NYY 1-1 HOU
WSH 2-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6673	60.57	41.43
NYY	0.6148	39.43	22.33
WSH	0.5888	83.77	30.92
STL	0.5683	16.23	5.31

The ALCS is tied, so Houston's back on top as the favorite, being the stronger team on paper. The NL plays alone today, so I get a rare prime time St. Louis game, and there may not be many more at this rate.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington
Oct 13: New York over Washington

2019-10-13

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

This was a slightly curious week at the top of my rankings. Ohio State was on bye, but held on to their #1 spot. One reason for that is that #2 Florida lost, but they also held their position. SMU and Auburn, my previous #3 and #4, also had a bye but dropped to #11 and #14. Replacing them in the playoff position is Wisconsin and Boise state.

4 undefeated teams lost this week. I already mentioned Florida, but there was also a huge upset of Georgia. Memphis lost to Temple, and Wake Forest lost to Louisville.

There's a slight glimmer of hope for Missouri's postseason with that Georgia loss. They'll have to keep winning, though, which they did over Ole Miss this week to reach #17, up from #23.

All three winless teams stayed winless, and Akron refuses to let go of the #130 spot.

1	Ohio State	6-0
2	Florida	6-1
3	Wisconsin	6-0
4	Boise State	6-0
5	Alabama	6-0
6	Clemson	6-0
7	Penn State	6-0
8	Minnesota	6-0
9	LSU	6-0
10	Oklahoma	6-0
11	SMU	6-0
12	Baylor	6-0
13	Oregon	5-1
14	Auburn	5-1
15	Arizona State	5-1
16	Notre Dame	5-1
17	Missouri	5-1
18	Washington	5-2
19	Appalachian State	5-0
20	Memphis	5-1
21	Wake Forest	5-1
22	Cincinnati	5-1
23	Georgia	5-1
24	Michigan	5-1
25	Utah	5-1
26	Tulane	5-1
27	Temple	5-1
28	Hawai'i	4-2
29	San Diego State	5-1
30	California	4-2
31	Louisville	4-2
32	Texas	4-2
33	Iowa State	4-2
34	Louisiana Tech	5-1
35	Pittsburgh	4-2
36	Navy	4-1
37	UCF	4-2
38	Michigan State	4-3
39	UAB	5-1
40	Duke	4-2
41	Arizona	4-2
42	Western Michigan	4-3
43	Western Kentucky	4-2
44	Iowa	4-2
45	Virginia	4-2
46	Nevada	4-2
47	Oklahoma State	4-2
48	Southern Mississippi	4-2
49	Georgia State	4-2
50	Air Force	4-2
51	Florida Atlantic	4-2
52	Wyoming	4-2
53	NC State	4-2
54	Toledo	4-2
55	Virginia Tech	4-2
56	Louisiana	4-2
57	Florida State	3-3
58	Nebraska	4-3
59	Indiana	4-2
60	West Virginia	3-3
61	Central Michigan	4-3
62	Utah State	3-2
63	Miami	3-3
64	Texas Tech	3-3
65	Liberty	4-2
T-66	Colorado	3-3
T-66	Kansas State	3-2
68	North Carolina	3-3
69	TCU	3-2
70	South Carolina	3-3
71	Syracuse	3-3
72	Texas A&M	3-3
73	USC	3-3
74	Mississippi State	3-3
75	Kent State	3-3
76	Stanford	3-3
77	Kentucky	3-3
78	Ole Miss	3-4
79	Arkansas State	3-3
80	Florida International	3-3
81	Ball State	3-3
82	Boston College	3-3
83	Eastern Michigan	3-3
84	Marshall	3-3
85	East Carolina	3-3
86	UL Monroe	3-3
87	South Florida	3-3
88	Army	3-3
89	Maryland	3-3
90	Coastal Carolina	3-3
91	San Jose State	3-3
92	Tulsa	2-4
93	Washington State	3-3
94	Miami (OH)	2-4
95	Texas State	2-4
96	Tennessee	2-4
97	BYU	2-4
98	Fresno State	2-3
99	Georgia Southern	2-3
100	Purdue	2-4
101	Troy	2-3
102	Bowling Green	2-4
103	Middle Tennessee	2-4
104	Houston	2-4
105	North Texas	2-4
106	Kansas	2-4
107	Oregon State	2-4
108	Charlotte	2-4
109	Buffalo	2-4
110	UTSA	2-4
111	Northern Illinois	2-4
112	Illinois	2-4
113	Arkansas	2-4
114	New Mexico	2-4
115	Ohio	2-4
116	UNLV	2-4
117	Colorado State	2-5
118	UCLA	1-5
119	Northwestern	1-4
120	Georgia Tech	1-5
121	UTEP	1-4
122	Old Dominion	1-5
123	Rutgers	1-5
124	Vanderbilt	1-5
125	South Alabama	1-5
126	UConn	1-5
127	Rice	0-6
128	UMass	1-6
129	New Mexico State	0-7
130	Akron	0-6

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State

2019 World Series Projection, October 13

New York over Washington

League Championship Series
NYY 1-0 HOU
WSH 2-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6673	45.54	31.15
NYY	0.6148	54.46	30.85
WSH	0.5888	83.77	32.41
STL	0.5683	16.23	5.59

NLCS game 2 never felt dominated by either team to me, but St. Louis couldn't put together more than 1 run to Washington's 3, and ran out of innings to fix that. I was a little surprised to see New York beat Houston 7-0, but they also scored 1 or 2 runs at a time across multiple innings. New York takes over the AL lead, while Washington now has about a 5 in 6 chance to win the NL.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington

2019-10-12

2019 World Series Projection, October 12

Houston over Washington

League Championship Series
NYY 0-0 HOU
WSH 1-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6673	62.28	42.96
NYY	0.6148	37.72	21.61
WSH	0.5888	69.48	25.50
STL	0.5683	30.52	9.93

Washington took a no-hitter into the 8th inning and St. Louis couldn't muster any runs, losing 2-0. Today both LCSs will play, with the NL playing early and the AL getting the prime time game, as is usual when New York is involved.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington

2019-10-11

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 6, Thursday

New England over San Francisco

New England beat the New York Giants as expected on Thursday night, and bumped their playoff chances up over 99% for the first time this season. If Fantasy Football points are any indication, the New England defense is really strong this year, propping up my usually mediocre team to a 5-0 record so far.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	6-0	0.681	88.45	99.35	94.42	61.74	39.91	25.02
SF	4-0	0.604	65.61	84.83	71.40	40.28	22.50	11.37
KC	4-1	0.560	64.94	76.51	56.84	28.56	12.71	6.36
BAL	3-2	0.571	71.65	75.92	49.28	24.79	11.50	5.89
GB	4-1	0.555	47.27	67.72	49.37	24.85	12.31	5.61
BUF	4-1	0.556	11.52	83.14	49.07	21.89	10.39	5.16
DAL	3-2	0.579	52.86	59.88	38.30	20.23	10.60	5.09
MIN	3-2	0.588	21.28	46.31	31.39	16.83	8.95	4.38
PHI	3-2	0.553	43.68	52.60	32.89	16.48	8.17	3.72
HOU	3-2	0.540	36.49	52.17	33.95	15.70	6.79	3.26
SEA	4-1	0.528	23.69	51.92	33.02	15.43	7.28	3.13
CAR	3-2	0.542	35.78	46.45	29.55	14.29	6.86	3.04
NO	4-1	0.498	49.18	60.18	38.58	16.89	7.32	2.94
CHI	3-2	0.552	17.38	39.08	25.08	12.45	6.13	2.78
TEN	2-3	0.557	18.16	32.07	20.14	9.38	4.27	2.12
IND	3-2	0.496	31.36	45.12	27.07	11.31	4.39	1.92
LAR	3-2	0.520	9.99	31.73	18.56	8.54	3.97	1.68
DET	2-1-1	0.504	14.07	28.75	17.20	7.71	3.42	1.39
LAC	2-3	0.521	14.30	26.65	15.24	6.58	2.76	1.28
OAK	3-2	0.460	17.64	35.76	19.31	7.27	2.61	1.05
JAC	2-3	0.486	13.99	25.51	13.42	5.28	2.04	0.87
TB	2-3	0.498	12.83	18.94	9.84	4.29	1.87	0.75
CLE	2-3	0.438	18.27	24.10	10.85	3.87	1.33	0.51
PIT	1-4	0.449	8.41	12.55	5.58	2.00	0.72	0.28
DEN	1-4	0.463	3.12	6.47	3.14	1.15	0.43	0.17
NYG	2-4	0.407	3.35	5.13	2.08	0.73	0.26	0.08
ARI	1-3-1	0.430	0.72	3.28	1.43	0.54	0.20	0.07
ATL	1-4	0.417	2.21	3.03	1.25	0.45	0.16	0.05
CIN	0-5	0.397	1.67	2.13	0.79	0.24	0.08	0.03
NYJ	0-4	0.389	0.01	1.39	0.50	0.14	0.04	0.01
MIA	0-4	0.376	0.02	1.15	0.40	0.10	0.03	0.01
WAS	0-5	0.376	0.11	0.18	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00

2019 World Series Projection, October 11

Houston over Washington

League Championship Series
NYY 0-0 HOU
WSH 0-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	WS	Win
HOU	0.6673	62.28	43.32
NYY	0.6148	37.72	21.86
WSH	0.5888	54.59	20.04
STL	0.5683	45.41	14.78

Houston finished off their division series, and assumes the lead for World Series chances. The NLCS begins today, and I've got Washington favored (note that I don't use homefield advantage, maybe next year).

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington

2019-10-10

2019 World Series Projection, October 10

New York over Washington

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-2 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
HOU	0.6673	59.65	37.15	25.85
NYY	0.6148	100.00	46.23	26.79
WSH	0.5888	100.00	54.59	22.47
TB	0.5756	40.35	16.62	8.16
STL	0.5683	100.00	45.41	16.73

As you can see below, I had LA favored to win the World Series from the beginning of the playoffs. But, they have been eliminated by Washington, the Wildcard team, who is now the NL favorite over St. Louis, who won a series that was a toss-up on paper, but I really didn't have a lot of hope for. The great thing about all these series going the distance is that we'll have the second ALDS wrap up today with Tampa trying to duplicate Washington's feat of knocking off the #1 seed, and we'll go right into the NLCS on Friday.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York

2019-10-09

2019 World Series Projection, October 9

Los Angeles over New York

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-2 HOU
STL 2-2 ATL
WSH 2-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
LAD	0.6696	58.60	42.39	25.27
HOU	0.6673	59.65	37.15	22.82
NYY	0.6148	100.00	46.23	22.93
WSH	0.5888	41.40	22.66	9.33
TB	0.5756	40.35	16.62	6.83
STL	0.5683	50.14	17.59	6.48
ATL	0.5669	49.86	17.36	6.35

Tampa won to force a game 5, and thus New York is now the AL favorite, having already secured their spot in the ALCS. Today both NL Division Series will finish, hopefully with a win for the Cardinals and Nationals (to maximize the Cardinals chances in the NLCS).

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston

2019-10-08

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 5, Final

New England over San Francisco

San Francisco won and solidified their NFC leading position at 4-0. They're also now the strongest NFC team in terms of points scored and allowed, adjusted for games played. New England's can't seem to have a single bad day, gaining ground because their future opponent Cleveland is now a much weaker team after the 31-3 loss.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	5-0	0.653	82.25	98.30	90.30	56.30	34.72	20.72
SF	4-0	0.604	65.61	84.80	71.43	40.34	22.56	11.82
KC	4-1	0.560	65.33	76.91	57.47	29.18	13.67	6.84
BAL	3-2	0.571	71.79	76.17	49.89	25.49	12.39	6.35
BUF	4-1	0.556	17.67	83.49	51.64	24.15	11.80	5.86
GB	4-1	0.555	47.00	67.03	48.80	24.59	12.19	5.78
DAL	3-2	0.579	51.69	58.82	37.80	19.97	10.47	5.22
MIN	3-2	0.588	21.75	46.52	31.62	16.97	9.04	4.59
PHI	3-2	0.553	41.61	50.58	31.72	15.90	7.89	3.73
HOU	3-2	0.540	36.90	52.70	34.49	16.29	7.37	3.54
SEA	4-1	0.528	23.70	51.91	33.06	15.46	7.30	3.27
CAR	3-2	0.542	35.77	46.39	29.55	14.31	6.87	3.17
NO	4-1	0.498	49.18	60.19	38.66	16.96	7.35	3.08
CHI	3-2	0.552	17.29	38.40	24.66	12.25	6.04	2.85
TEN	2-3	0.557	18.05	31.97	20.04	9.61	4.54	2.26
IND	3-2	0.496	31.18	44.99	27.00	11.52	4.70	2.05
LAR	3-2	0.520	9.99	31.67	18.56	8.55	3.98	1.75
DET	2-1-1	0.504	13.96	28.17	16.85	7.57	3.36	1.42
LAC	2-3	0.521	14.15	26.55	15.18	6.76	2.95	1.37
OAK	3-2	0.460	17.45	35.64	19.24	7.46	2.80	1.12
JAC	2-3	0.486	13.88	25.41	13.38	5.44	2.19	0.94
TB	2-3	0.498	12.83	18.89	9.83	4.29	1.87	0.78
CLE	2-3	0.438	18.30	24.36	11.04	4.06	1.47	0.56
PIT	1-4	0.449	8.24	12.38	5.50	2.05	0.76	0.30
NYG	2-3	0.444	6.60	10.30	4.75	1.85	0.72	0.26
DEN	1-4	0.463	3.07	6.43	3.11	1.19	0.46	0.19
ARI	1-3-1	0.430	0.69	3.15	1.38	0.51	0.19	0.07
ATL	1-4	0.417	2.21	3.04	1.26	0.45	0.16	0.05
CIN	0-5	0.397	1.68	2.17	0.80	0.26	0.09	0.03
NYJ	0-4	0.389	0.03	1.38	0.50	0.15	0.05	0.02
MIA	0-4	0.376	0.05	1.15	0.40	0.12	0.04	0.01
WAS	0-5	0.376	0.10	0.16	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco

2019 World Series Projection, October 8

Los Angeles over Houston

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 1-2 HOU
STL 2-2 ATL
WSH 2-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
LAD	0.6696	58.60	42.39	24.15
HOU	0.6673	83.72	52.14	32.03
NYY	0.6148	100.00	41.16	20.41
WSH	0.5888	41.40	22.66	8.73
TB	0.5756	16.28	6.70	2.76
STL	0.5683	50.14	17.59	6.03
ATL	0.5669	49.86	17.36	5.90

In the NL, both series are now tied. Minnesota is the first team out of the ALDS, while Tampa stayed alive, and will try to do so again today in game 4.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston

2019-10-07

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 5, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

Dallas lost a home game against Green Bay to fall to 3-2, and out of the NFC lead. San Francisco is now in control at 3-0, though they still have a game to play Monday night. Should they lose, Green Bay may well be the NFC leader tomorrow. New England stomped on Washington and is up over 34% to win, which feels like a pretty high number this early. Which reminds me that I used to track the first team to certain chances of making the playoffs or winning the Super Bowl, so I've added that starting with this post. Unsurprisingly, New England appears in every position, including this week's "First team to 20% chance of Superbowl win".

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	5-0	0.653	82.25	97.96	89.71	55.81	34.46	20.93
SF	3-0	0.565	51.37	71.91	55.93	29.37	15.27	7.41
KC	4-1	0.560	65.41	76.52	56.58	28.66	13.46	6.89
GB	4-1	0.555	47.64	68.34	50.53	25.86	13.20	6.27
BAL	3-2	0.571	60.10	69.27	45.70	23.31	11.35	5.94
BUF	4-1	0.556	17.67	81.40	50.18	23.50	11.49	5.84
DAL	3-2	0.579	51.70	59.05	38.63	20.83	11.19	5.59
MIN	3-2	0.588	21.48	47.18	32.28	17.67	9.65	4.90
PHI	3-2	0.554	41.61	50.86	32.44	16.60	8.46	4.00
SEA	4-1	0.528	32.54	54.66	36.44	17.54	8.41	3.77
HOU	3-2	0.540	36.90	51.79	33.70	15.91	7.21	3.54
CAR	3-2	0.542	35.96	47.46	30.94	15.32	7.54	3.49
NO	4-1	0.498	49.33	61.14	40.46	18.11	8.06	3.38
CHI	3-2	0.552	17.09	39.12	25.31	12.83	6.49	3.06
TEN	2-3	0.557	18.08	31.30	19.56	9.39	4.44	2.26
LAR	3-2	0.520	14.87	35.12	21.55	10.21	4.82	2.12
IND	3-2	0.496	31.15	44.19	26.23	11.19	4.57	2.05
CLE	2-2	0.496	32.86	42.99	23.61	10.10	4.16	1.86
DET	2-1-1	0.504	13.78	28.81	17.41	7.98	3.65	1.55
LAC	2-3	0.521	14.19	25.89	14.70	6.55	2.87	1.36
OAK	3-2	0.460	17.47	34.67	18.57	7.20	2.71	1.12
JAC	2-3	0.486	13.87	24.74	12.96	5.28	2.13	0.93
TB	2-3	0.498	12.49	18.92	10.11	4.54	2.03	0.85
NYG	2-3	0.444	6.59	10.48	4.93	1.98	0.79	0.29
PIT	1-4	0.449	5.93	9.62	4.30	1.60	0.60	0.24
DEN	1-4	0.463	2.92	5.88	2.82	1.08	0.42	0.17
ARI	1-3-1	0.430	1.22	3.60	1.64	0.63	0.24	0.09
ATL	1-4	0.417	2.23	3.17	1.36	0.50	0.18	0.06
CIN	0-5	0.397	1.11	1.53	0.57	0.18	0.06	0.02
NYJ	0-4	0.389	0.03	1.27	0.46	0.14	0.05	0.02
MIA	0-4	0.376	0.05	0.99	0.35	0.10	0.03	0.01
WAS	0-5	0.376	0.10	0.17	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas

2019 World Series Projection, October 7

Los Angeles over Houston

Division Series
MIN 0-2 NYY
TB 0-2 HOU
STL 1-2 ATL
WSH 1-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
LAD	0.6696	82.86	60.00	33.59
HOU	0.6673	93.43	58.45	33.92
NYY	0.6148	88.35	34.55	15.93
MIN	0.6037	11.65	4.27	1.87
WSH	0.5888	17.14	9.39	3.52
TB	0.5756	6.57	2.72	1.03
STL	0.5683	25.14	7.74	2.58
ATL	0.5669	74.86	22.87	7.56

The higher seeds both won game 3 in the NLDS, and both Atlanta and LA can try to finish the series on the road today. Actually that's true of all 4 games today, with both AL road teams up 2-0 heading into their each series' Game 3.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston

2019-10-06

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 6

Auburn lost to Florida this week, but stayed in playoff position, falling to #4. Florida moved up from #7 to #2. Ohio State moved up to take over #1 with Auburn's loss, and SMU stayed right where they are at #3.

Iowa and Auburn were the only two undefeated teams to lose, so 16 are left. We had to lose at least one because Auburn and Florida were both undefeated. Next week Florida and LSU will also be a match between unbeaten teams.

Missouri inexplicably scheduled a cupcake the week after a bye, easily beating #100 Troy 42-10. That still boosted them 11 spots, because at least it wasn't an FCS team I guess.

New Mexico State and Rice both lost to move to 0-5, but Akron defended their #130 position and remained on bottom at 0-5.

1	Ohio State	6-0
2	Florida	6-0
3	SMU	6-0
4	Auburn	5-1
5	Clemson	5-0
6	Wisconsin	5-0
7	Alabama	5-0
8	Penn State	5-0
9	Georgia	5-0
10	Boise State	5-0
11	Wake Forest	5-0
12	Memphis	5-0
13	LSU	5-0
14	Oklahoma	5-0
15	Minnesota	5-0
16	Baylor	5-0
17	Oregon	4-1
18	Hawai'i	4-1
19	Arizona State	4-1
20	Pittsburgh	4-2
21	Texas	4-1
22	California	4-2
23	Missouri	4-1
24	Notre Dame	4-1
25	Arizona	4-1
26	Oklahoma State	4-2
27	Washington	4-2
28	UCF	4-2
29	Cincinnati	4-1
30	Michigan	4-1
31	Virginia	4-1
32	Michigan State	4-2
33	Appalachian State	4-0
34	Iowa	4-1
35	Tulane	4-1
36	Wyoming	4-1
37	Louisiana	4-1
38	Toledo	4-1
39	Utah	4-1
40	Liberty	4-2
41	Temple	4-1
42	Texas Tech	3-2
43	San Diego State	4-1
44	West Virginia	3-2
45	Mississippi State	3-2
46	Duke	3-2
47	Louisiana Tech	4-1
48	Nebraska	4-2
49	Florida State	3-2
50	Syracuse	3-2
51	Navy	3-1
52	Iowa State	3-2
53	Utah State	3-2
54	Kansas State	3-2
55	USC	3-2
56	Colorado	3-2
57	Western Michigan	3-3
58	Louisville	3-2
59	Texas A&M	3-2
60	UAB	4-1
61	Stanford	3-3
62	Southern Mississippi	3-2
63	TCU	3-2
64	Ole Miss	3-3
65	North Carolina	3-3
66	Nevada	3-2
67	Georgia State	3-2
68	Air Force	3-2
69	Virginia Tech	3-2
70	Maryland	3-2
71	Eastern Michigan	3-2
72	Western Kentucky	3-2
73	Florida Atlantic	3-2
74	Arkansas State	3-3
75	NC State	3-2
76	Boston College	3-3
77	Indiana	3-2
78	Central Michigan	3-3
79	Coastal Carolina	3-2
80	Army	3-2
81	San Jose State	3-2
82	Tulsa	2-3
83	East Carolina	3-3
84	Texas State	2-3
85	Miami (OH)	2-3
86	Kent State	2-3
87	Kentucky	2-3
88	Washington State	3-2
89	Miami	2-3
90	BYU	2-3
91	South Carolina	2-3
92	Georgia Southern	2-3
93	Marshall	2-3
94	Fresno State	2-2
95	Oregon State	2-3
96	Houston	2-3
97	New Mexico	2-3
98	North Texas	2-3
99	Middle Tennessee	2-3
100	Troy	2-3
101	Kansas	2-4
102	South Florida	2-3
103	Florida International	2-3
104	Charlotte	2-3
105	UTSA	2-3
106	Ohio	2-3
107	Buffalo	2-4
108	UL Monroe	2-3
109	Arkansas	2-3
110	Illinois	2-3
111	Ball State	2-3
112	Tennessee	1-4
113	UCLA	1-5
114	Purdue	1-4
115	Northwestern	1-4
116	UTEP	1-4
117	Georgia Tech	1-4
118	Vanderbilt	1-4
119	Rutgers	1-4
120	Old Dominion	1-4
121	Bowling Green	1-4
122	UNLV	1-4
123	Northern Illinois	1-4
124	Colorado State	1-5
125	UConn	1-4
126	South Alabama	1-5
127	Rice	0-6
128	UMass	1-5
129	New Mexico State	0-6
130	Akron	0-5

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn

2019 World Series Projection, October 6

Los Angeles over Houston

Division Series
MIN 0-2 NYY
TB 0-2 HOU
STL 1-1 ATL
WSH 1-1 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
LAD	0.6696	62.77	45.41	25.42
HOU	0.6673	93.43	58.45	35.56
NYY	0.6148	88.35	34.55	16.93
MIN	0.6037	11.65	4.27	1.99
WSH	0.5888	37.23	20.38	7.64
TB	0.5756	6.57	2.72	1.10
STL	0.5683	50.21	17.24	5.74
ATL	0.5669	49.79	16.97	5.61

Home teams won again in the AL and we've almost got an ALCS matchup set. They'll get Sunday off while the NL resumes with game 3 in both series.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston