Tenets of Wilson: 2021-12

2021-12-28

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 16, Final

Buffalo over Dallas

Miami beat New Orleans, and now there's a bit of a logjam at 8-7 in the AFC. Miami, Baltimore, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas are all tied, with 6 teams ahead of them. Pittsburgh is the oddball, slightly behind them at 7-7-1, and Cleveland and Denver will need a whole lot of help, currently at 7-8.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	9-6	0.772	87.2	99.2	61.7	40.1	25.3	15.7
DAL	11-4	0.736	++	++	69.5	41.6	25.2	13.6
KC	11-4	0.696	++	++	84.5	45.5	22.8	12.0
NE	9-6	0.737	12.7	97.9	53.9	31.7	18.3	10.5
TB	11-4	0.711	++	++	62.2	33.8	19.3	9.8
GB	12-3	0.608	++	++	89.1	41.7	17.0	6.8
IND	9-6	0.677	5.6	98.1	51.6	25.7	12.4	6.3
LAR	11-4	0.654	75.5	++	53.3	25.1	12.3	5.5
ARI	10-5	0.659	24.5	++	47.7	23.4	11.8	5.3
CIN	9-6	0.649	85.1	90.9	47.6	21.9	9.8	4.6
PHI	8-7	0.643	-	71.7	31.6	15.8	7.5	3.2
TEN	10-5	0.560	94.4	99.5	64.9	24.0	8.2	3.2
SF	8-7	0.579	-	72.5	27.9	11.8	4.7	1.8
NO	7-8	0.523	-	36.0	12.2	4.6	1.6	0.5
LAC	8-7	0.495	-	29.9	10.8	3.6	1.0	0.3
BAL	8-7	0.498	3.9	28.5	9.9	3.4	1.0	0.3
MIN	7-8	0.521	-	16.9	6.0	2.1	0.7	0.2
MIA	8-7	0.479	0.1	18.6	5.8	1.8	0.5	0.2
CLE	7-8	0.469	8.5	9.0	2.7	0.8	0.2	0.1
LV	8-7	0.370	-	17.9	4.2	1.0	0.2	0.0
PIT	7-7-1	0.366	2.6	10.0	2.4	0.6	0.1	0.0
DEN	7-8	0.589	-	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
WAS	6-9	0.306	-	2.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	7-8	0.281	-	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
SEA	5-10	0.498	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-10	0.360	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-10	0.292	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	4-11	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	2-12-1	0.264	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-11	0.228	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.226	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-13	0.184	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a Division: Green Bay (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)
First teams eliminated from the playoffs: Jacksonville, Houston (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Final] New England over Tampa Bay
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Tampa Bay
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Tampa Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Monday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Sunday] Buffalo over Dallas

2021-12-27

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 16, Sunday

Buffalo over Dallas

Now things are starting to fall into place. We had Kansas City and Tampa Bay clinch their divisions, LA and Arizona clinch playoff spots as they fight for the NFC West, and Seattle, Carolina, and New York all eliminated from the NFC playoffs, joining Chicago and Detroit, as well as Houston, Jacksonville, and New York on the AFC side.

Buffalo and New England played a very high-leverage game, because even though both are now 9-6, Buffalo's win gives them a nearly 7-in-8 chance at the division. Washington is still alive for a playoff spot too, despite a guaranteed losing record of 8-9 at best.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	9-6	0.772	86.8	99.3	61.0	39.6	25.1	15.6
DAL	11-4	0.736	++	++	69.4	41.4	25.2	13.6
KC	11-4	0.696	++	++	84.0	45.4	22.8	12.0
NE	9-6	0.737	13.1	98.9	53.8	31.8	18.4	10.6
TB	11-4	0.711	++	++	62.4	33.9	19.3	9.9
GB	12-3	0.608	++	++	88.9	41.6	16.9	6.8
IND	9-6	0.677	5.1	98.0	51.5	25.7	12.4	6.3
LAR	11-4	0.654	75.5	++	53.1	25.0	12.3	5.5
ARI	10-5	0.659	24.5	++	47.7	23.4	11.8	5.3
CIN	9-6	0.649	85.1	90.0	47.0	21.6	9.7	4.6
TEN	10-5	0.560	94.9	99.8	66.7	24.7	8.5	3.2
PHI	8-7	0.643	-	62.3	27.6	13.7	6.5	2.8
SF	8-7	0.579	-	63.5	24.5	10.4	4.2	1.5
NO	7-7	0.557	-	58.1	21.2	8.7	3.3	1.2
BAL	8-7	0.498	3.9	35.3	12.3	4.2	1.2	0.4
LAC	8-7	0.495	-	31.1	11.3	3.8	1.1	0.3
MIN	7-8	0.521	-	14.4	5.0	1.7	0.6	0.2
CLE	7-8	0.469	8.5	9.4	2.7	0.8	0.2	0.1
MIA	7-7	0.445	0.0	8.0	2.4	0.7	0.2	0.0
LV	8-7	0.370	-	18.6	4.3	1.0	0.2	0.0
DEN	7-8	0.589	-	1.1	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0
PIT	7-7-1	0.366	2.6	10.5	2.5	0.6	0.1	0.0
WAS	6-9	0.306	-	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
ATL	7-8	0.281	-	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
SEA	5-10	0.498	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-10	0.360	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-10	0.292	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	4-11	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	2-12-1	0.264	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-11	0.228	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.225	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-13	0.184	-	-	-	-	-	-

2021-12-26

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 16, Saturday

New England over Dallas

Spending another Christmas at home, I had a chance to catch a little bit of Green Bay and Cleveland in the background, but I had no idea Indianapolis and Arizona even played until the next day when I went to run the numbers. Arizona built up such a lead that they are still over 99.9% likely to make the playoffs, but are nowhere near the favorite they once were. Green Bay escaped with a win to take a 1.5 game lead on Dallas for the #1 seed

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-5	0.754	57.1	99.0	72.4	45.7	28.9	18.2
BUF	8-6	0.755	42.8	81.3	49.3	30.0	18.8	11.9
DAL	10-4	0.680	100.0	++	63.5	35.0	19.6	9.6
GB	12-3	0.608	++	++	91.6	45.5	20.3	8.4
KC	10-4	0.654	92.7	98.8	69.4	34.9	16.1	8.3
TB	10-4	0.670	99.8	100.0	59.5	31.1	17.1	8.1
IND	9-6	0.677	4.7	98.0	57.3	30.0	14.7	7.9
ARI	10-5	0.659	42.7	99.9	52.6	27.3	14.7	6.8
LAR	10-4	0.643	57.3	98.9	51.8	25.7	13.2	5.9
TEN	10-5	0.560	95.3	99.7	60.3	23.5	8.4	3.5
CIN	8-6	0.618	57.4	66.8	32.2	14.6	6.2	2.9
SF	8-7	0.579	-	65.4	27.1	12.1	5.2	2.0
PHI	7-7	0.601	0.0	44.3	19.2	9.1	4.2	1.7
NO	7-7	0.557	0.2	54.1	21.3	9.1	3.7	1.4
LAC	8-6	0.515	6.1	61.4	24.4	8.7	2.7	1.0
BAL	8-6	0.536	27.6	47.8	18.5	6.9	2.4	0.9
MIN	7-7	0.533	-	32.9	12.3	4.9	1.9	0.6
DEN	7-7	0.596	1.2	16.8	7.6	3.3	1.3	0.6
PIT	7-6-1	0.415	9.5	15.2	4.1	1.1	0.3	0.1
CLE	7-8	0.469	5.4	7.2	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1
MIA	7-7	0.445	0.0	3.5	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
WAS	6-8	0.372	-	4.3	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
LV	7-7	0.367	-	4.4	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0
ATL	6-8	0.280	-	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	5-9	0.413	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
SEA	5-9	0.500	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	4-10	0.312	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	2-11-1	0.275	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-11	0.226	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	3-11	0.210	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-12	0.195	-	-	-	-	-	-

2021-12-24

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 16, Thursday

New England over Dallas

The AFC is kind of weird this year. Tennessee was completely off my radar but just won their 10th game of the year, putting them just behind Kansas City in seeding. I have 4 other teams more likely to win the AFC, though, including their division rival, Indianapolis.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-5	0.754	57.1	99.1	73.7	46.7	29.6	18.6
BUF	8-6	0.755	42.8	81.8	51.1	31.2	19.6	12.4
DAL	10-4	0.680	100.0	++	65.2	36.2	20.2	9.9
TB	10-4	0.670	99.8	100.0	62.6	33.1	18.0	8.6
KC	10-4	0.654	92.7	98.9	69.6	35.3	16.3	8.4
ARI	10-4	0.666	59.7	99.9	55.7	29.2	15.8	7.5
GB	11-3	0.604	++	++	83.8	40.6	18.0	7.4
IND	8-6	0.664	2.3	89.5	50.2	25.8	12.2	6.4
LAR	10-4	0.643	40.3	98.9	51.3	25.7	13.2	5.9
TEN	10-5	0.560	97.7	99.8	60.3	23.8	8.5	3.5
CIN	8-6	0.618	54.8	65.6	32.4	14.7	6.3	3.0
SF	8-7	0.579	-	65.4	27.2	12.0	5.2	2.0
PHI	7-7	0.601	0.0	44.2	19.3	9.0	4.1	1.7
NO	7-7	0.557	0.2	54.0	21.4	9.0	3.7	1.3
LAC	8-6	0.515	6.1	62.2	24.8	8.9	2.8	1.1
BAL	8-6	0.536	25.5	47.9	19.0	7.1	2.5	1.0
MIN	7-7	0.533	-	33.1	12.4	4.8	1.9	0.6
DEN	7-7	0.596	1.2	16.7	7.6	3.3	1.3	0.6
CLE	7-7	0.473	10.6	13.5	4.4	1.4	0.4	0.1
PIT	7-6-1	0.415	9.1	16.4	4.6	1.2	0.3	0.1
MIA	7-7	0.445	0.0	3.5	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0
LV	7-7	0.367	-	5.1	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
WAS	6-8	0.372	-	4.3	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
CAR	5-9	0.413	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ATL	6-8	0.280	-	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
SEA	5-9	0.500	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	4-10	0.312	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	2-11-1	0.275	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-11	0.226	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	3-11	0.210	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-12	0.195	-	-	-	-	-	-

2021-12-22

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 15, Final

New England over Dallas

The last 2 games of the week, rescheduled due to Covid, had LA beating Seattle and Philadelphia beating Washington's 3rd string QB. LA is tied with Arizona for the NFC West, although Arizona is currently still favored about 3 to 2. Also, Dallas has not technically clinched the NFC East, but it would take dozens of games to go correctly for Philadelphia to tie them and ultimately beat them on Strength of Victory.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-5	0.754	57.1	99.1	74.8	47.2	29.9	18.8
BUF	8-6	0.755	42.8	82.1	52.2	31.7	19.9	12.5
DAL	10-4	0.680	++	++	65.2	36.2	20.1	9.8
KC	10-4	0.654	92.7	98.9	73.1	37.5	17.1	8.8
TB	10-4	0.670	99.8	100.0	62.3	32.9	17.9	8.5
ARI	10-4	0.666	59.6	99.8	55.6	29.1	15.8	7.4
GB	11-3	0.604	++	++	83.7	40.5	17.9	7.3
IND	8-6	0.664	12.0	89.5	51.3	26.2	12.4	6.5
LAR	10-4	0.643	39.3	98.8	51.2	25.7	13.1	5.9
CIN	8-6	0.618	54.8	66.2	33.6	15.2	6.4	3.0
TEN	9-5	0.553	88.0	97.3	50.9	19.6	6.9	2.8
SF	8-6	0.583	1.0	79.2	33.2	14.6	6.4	2.5
PHI	7-7	0.601	-	40.8	17.9	8.4	3.8	1.5
NO	7-7	0.557	0.2	46.5	18.4	7.8	3.2	1.2
LAC	8-6	0.515	6.1	62.7	25.7	9.0	2.9	1.1
BAL	8-6	0.536	25.5	47.8	19.1	7.0	2.4	0.9
MIN	7-7	0.533	-	31.2	11.8	4.6	1.8	0.6
DEN	7-7	0.596	1.2	16.8	7.7	3.3	1.3	0.6
CLE	7-7	0.473	10.6	13.6	4.4	1.4	0.4	0.1
PIT	7-6-1	0.414	9.1	16.7	4.7	1.2	0.3	0.1
MIA	7-7	0.445	0.0	4.0	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
LV	7-7	0.367	-	5.3	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
WAS	6-8	0.372	-	3.4	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
ATL	6-8	0.280	-	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
SEA	5-9	0.500	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	5-9	0.413	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	4-10	0.312	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	2-11-1	0.275	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-11	0.226	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	3-11	0.210	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-12	0.195	-	-	-	-	-	-

2021-12-21

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 15, Monday

New England over Dallas

Chicago lost to Minnesota, which made them the 5th team eliminated from the playoffs. Las Vegas beat Cleveland, but both of those teams are now 7-7. We'll get a 5th day of games this week due to Covid delays, with 2 more games on Tuesday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-5	0.754	57.1	99.1	74.8	47.2	29.9	18.9
BUF	8-6	0.755	42.8	82.0	52.1	31.6	19.8	12.5
DAL	10-4	0.680	99.7	100.0	66.8	37.3	20.9	10.2
TB	10-4	0.670	99.8	100.0	64.0	34.2	18.6	8.9
KC	10-4	0.654	92.7	98.9	73.1	37.5	17.1	8.8
ARI	10-4	0.666	71.1	99.9	57.5	30.2	16.4	7.8
GB	11-3	0.604	++	++	84.2	41.3	18.4	7.5
IND	8-6	0.665	12.0	89.5	51.3	26.1	12.3	6.5
LAR	9-4	0.623	27.4	95.7	46.3	22.3	11.0	4.7
CIN	8-6	0.618	54.6	66.1	33.5	15.2	6.4	3.1
TEN	9-5	0.553	88.0	97.3	50.8	19.6	6.9	2.8
SF	8-6	0.583	1.5	80.0	33.5	14.9	6.6	2.6
NO	7-7	0.557	0.2	50.2	19.9	8.4	3.5	1.3
LAC	8-6	0.515	6.1	62.6	25.6	9.0	2.9	1.1
BAL	8-6	0.536	26.0	48.7	19.4	7.2	2.5	1.0
PHI	6-7	0.583	-	29.2	12.3	5.6	2.4	0.9
MIN	7-7	0.533	-	33.4	12.6	4.9	1.9	0.7
DEN	7-7	0.596	1.2	16.7	7.7	3.3	1.3	0.6
CLE	7-7	0.473	10.5	13.4	4.4	1.4	0.4	0.1
PIT	7-6-1	0.414	8.9	16.6	4.6	1.2	0.3	0.1
WAS	6-7	0.390	0.3	10.2	2.6	0.7	0.2	0.0
MIA	7-7	0.445	0.0	3.9	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
SEA	5-8	0.521	-	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0
LV	7-7	0.367	-	5.2	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
ATL	6-8	0.280	-	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	5-9	0.413	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	4-10	0.312	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	2-11-1	0.275	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-11	0.225	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	3-11	0.210	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-12	0.195	-	-	-	-	-	-

2021-12-20

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 15, Sunday

New England over Dallas

Losses by Arizona and Tampa Bay, combined with a win by Dallas bring them up to the top of the NFC. Also, Green Bay has clinched their division, and are the actual #1 seed at the moment.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-5	0.754	57.1	99.1	75.0	47.6	30.2	19.1
BUF	8-6	0.755	42.9	79.0	50.3	30.6	19.2	12.2
DAL	10-4	0.681	99.7	100.0	66.7	37.2	20.9	10.2
KC	10-4	0.654	92.8	98.8	73.1	37.7	17.3	8.9
TB	10-4	0.670	99.8	100.0	63.9	34.1	18.6	8.9
ARI	10-4	0.666	70.8	99.9	57.4	30.2	16.4	7.8
GB	11-3	0.604	++	++	84.4	41.4	18.4	7.5
IND	8-6	0.665	12.0	89.0	51.3	26.1	12.4	6.5
LAR	9-4	0.623	27.8	96.4	46.6	22.5	11.0	4.7
CIN	8-6	0.618	50.6	64.0	32.8	14.9	6.3	3.0
TEN	9-5	0.553	88.0	97.1	50.9	19.6	6.9	2.8
SF	8-6	0.583	1.5	81.3	34.1	15.2	6.7	2.6
NO	7-7	0.557	0.2	53.1	21.1	8.9	3.7	1.3
PHI	6-7	0.583	0.0	33.0	13.9	6.3	2.8	1.1
LAC	8-6	0.515	6.1	61.8	25.4	8.9	2.8	1.1
BAL	8-6	0.536	22.5	45.9	18.5	6.8	2.4	0.9
DEN	7-7	0.597	1.2	15.3	7.1	3.0	1.2	0.5
MIN	6-7	0.519	-	24.2	8.8	3.3	1.2	0.4
CLE	7-6	0.478	19.3	29.2	9.8	3.1	0.9	0.3
PIT	7-6-1	0.414	7.7	15.2	4.3	1.1	0.3	0.1
WAS	6-7	0.390	0.3	10.5	2.6	0.7	0.2	0.0
MIA	7-7	0.444	0.0	3.4	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
SEA	5-8	0.521	-	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0
LV	6-7	0.368	-	2.3	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	6-8	0.280	-	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	5-9	0.412	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-9	0.310	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	4-10	0.312	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	2-11-1	0.275	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-11	0.225	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	3-11	0.209	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-12	0.195	-	-	-	-	-	-

2021-12-19

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 15, Saturday

New England over Tampa Bay

New England lost to Indianapolis, but remains most likely to win the AFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-5	0.754	68.2	99.1	74.3	48.4	31.3	19.7
ARI	10-3	0.691	89.7	100.0	69.6	40.0	22.8	11.7
TB	10-3	0.672	99.9	100.0	75.8	42.3	22.8	11.2
KC	10-4	0.655	92.1	99.0	67.3	34.5	16.5	8.5
BUF	7-6	0.729	31.7	67.6	39.8	23.5	14.0	8.4
DAL	9-4	0.652	98.4	99.9	60.3	31.2	16.1	7.6
IND	8-6	0.665	4.0	88.9	50.9	26.4	13.0	6.8
GB	10-3	0.605	99.8	100.0	71.4	34.3	15.3	6.5
LAR	9-4	0.623	10.2	97.7	47.2	22.7	11.1	4.9
TEN	9-4	0.563	96.0	99.2	66.2	27.4	10.1	4.2
CIN	7-6	0.606	33.4	45.7	21.7	9.7	4.1	1.9
SF	7-6	0.551	0.1	73.7	28.9	11.6	4.7	1.8
BAL	8-5	0.539	42.8	64.6	26.6	10.1	3.7	1.4
DEN	7-6	0.605	1.9	34.5	16.3	7.3	3.1	1.4
PHI	6-7	0.583	0.8	41.4	17.5	7.6	3.4	1.3
LAC	8-6	0.515	5.9	59.5	23.4	8.5	2.8	1.1
NO	6-7	0.537	0.1	29.1	11.0	4.3	1.7	0.6
MIN	6-7	0.519	0.2	33.7	12.2	4.4	1.7	0.6
CLE	7-6	0.478	20.1	30.3	10.3	3.4	1.0	0.4
WAS	6-7	0.390	0.8	16.7	4.2	1.1	0.3	0.1
SEA	5-8	0.521	-	2.4	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
PIT	6-6-1	0.405	3.7	6.7	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
MIA	6-7	0.429	0.1	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
LV	6-7	0.368	-	2.8	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0
ATL	6-7	0.309	-	4.4	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0
CAR	5-8	0.447	-	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	4-9	0.343	-	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-9	0.310	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	1-11-1	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-10	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.216	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-11	0.201	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)
First teams eliminated from the playoffs: Jacksonville, Houston (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Final] New England over Tampa Bay
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Tampa Bay

2021-12-17

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 15, Thursday

New England over Tampa Bay

Kansas City beat LA on Thursday, and is now the #1 seed in the AFC, and the 2nd most likely team to win the AFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-4	0.762	84.2	99.7	85.2	56.4	37.2	23.7
ARI	10-3	0.691	90.0	100.0	69.7	40.1	22.8	11.5
TB	10-3	0.672	99.9	100.0	75.8	42.4	22.9	11.0
BUF	7-6	0.729	15.7	71.5	44.7	25.4	14.9	8.9
KC	10-4	0.655	92.1	99.4	63.3	33.7	15.4	7.9
DAL	9-4	0.652	98.4	99.9	60.3	31.2	16.0	7.4
GB	10-3	0.605	99.8	100.0	71.3	34.3	15.3	6.3
LAR	9-4	0.623	9.9	97.7	47.1	22.7	11.1	4.8
IND	7-6	0.647	1.6	65.8	36.0	17.2	8.1	4.1
TEN	9-4	0.563	98.4	99.6	58.1	24.6	8.7	3.6
CIN	7-6	0.606	33.4	47.7	23.4	10.3	4.3	2.0
SF	7-6	0.551	0.1	73.7	28.9	11.6	4.7	1.7
DEN	7-6	0.605	1.9	37.7	18.5	7.9	3.3	1.5
BAL	8-5	0.539	42.8	67.9	28.7	10.8	3.8	1.5
PHI	6-7	0.583	0.8	41.4	17.5	7.6	3.4	1.3
LAC	8-6	0.515	5.9	64.2	26.3	9.1	3.0	1.1
NO	6-7	0.537	0.1	29.1	11.0	4.3	1.7	0.6
MIN	6-7	0.519	0.2	33.7	12.2	4.4	1.7	0.6
CLE	7-6	0.478	20.1	32.5	11.6	3.7	1.1	0.4
WAS	6-7	0.390	0.8	16.7	4.2	1.1	0.3	0.1
SEA	5-8	0.521	-	2.4	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
PIT	6-6-1	0.405	3.7	8.0	2.3	0.6	0.1	0.0
MIA	6-7	0.429	0.0	2.5	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
LV	6-7	0.368	-	3.6	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0
ATL	6-7	0.309	-	4.4	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0
CAR	5-8	0.447	-	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	4-9	0.343	-	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-9	0.310	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	1-11-1	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-10	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.216	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-11	0.201	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)
First teams eliminated from the playoffs: Jacksonville, Houston (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Final] New England over Tampa Bay