2013 World Series Projections Wrapup

I graphed out my projections over the last month. The postseason was fairly unsurprising, with the NL and AL favorites making the World Series, and the very slight underdog Red Sox winning it. I think this graph is easier to read than a line graph. I've listed the teams weakest to strongest top to bottom, and the size of their bar each day indicates their share of World Series chances.

Worst Position for Boston: 18.27% on October 13, down 0-1 in the ALCS
Best Position for the Cardinals: 69.46% on October 27, up 2-1 in the World Series after the (no longer) infamous obstruction call.
Best Position for an LCS loser: 31.21% for Detroit, on October 13, up 1-0 in the ALCS
Best Position for an LDS loser: 18.57% for Oakland, on October 8, up 2-1 in the ALDS
Best Position for a Wildcard loser: 4.84% for Cincinnati, October 1, before playing Pittsburgh

Obviously, I wanted the Cardinals to wind up as champions, but I enjoyed this postseason. The games were mostly good, and the meaningful nature of playoff baseball means I don't feel bad about watching 2, 3, or 4 games in a day. Congrats to the Red Sox, and for everyone else, pitchers and catchers report in under 4 months.

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 8, Final

Kansas City over Seattle

By the numbers, Seattle should have rolled over the Rams easily last night, but somehow the Rams kept it close. On the final play, mere feet from the endzone, a TD pass would have won it for the Rams. And, had a 50-yard field goal not missed wide right a few minutes before, they'd have been in position for a chip shot to win it. But, close doesn't count in the NFL, until you get way down the tiebreaker list, and the Rams are now under the 1% mark for playoff chances, and under 3 in 10,000 to win the NFC West.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	8-0	0.692	70.235	99.554	87.836	53.515	32.038	18.331
SEA	7-1	0.658	77.390	98.035	86.310	48.406	26.575	13.986
CAR	4-3	0.652	25.778	57.592	38.277	20.671	10.971	5.705
DEN	7-1	0.648	28.598	95.521	66.304	34.358	18.418	9.644
NO	6-1	0.637	73.974	90.374	73.355	39.687	20.354	10.259
SF	6-2	0.637	22.341	84.213	56.245	28.845	14.989	7.541
CIN	6-2	0.610	89.644	93.290	71.729	36.156	16.782	8.105
IND	5-2	0.607	88.016	91.538	64.313	31.838	14.773	7.093
GB	5-2	0.591	61.120	76.269	52.230	24.123	11.095	5.057
NE	6-2	0.579	89.672	92.372	57.181	26.044	11.333	5.116
DAL	4-4	0.577	85.226	85.539	42.191	18.830	8.463	3.740
SD	4-3	0.550	1.126	31.011	14.842	5.836	2.453	1.037
DET	5-3	0.536	27.314	55.597	30.214	12.124	4.917	1.976
CHI	4-3	0.511	11.557	23.138	10.977	4.101	1.578	0.597
TEN	3-4	0.498	10.852	28.029	12.170	4.323	1.584	0.590
BAL	3-4	0.485	6.846	16.826	7.160	2.461	0.874	0.315
MIA	3-4	0.469	4.617	14.062	5.731	1.865	0.637	0.221
ARI	4-4	0.469	0.243	10.679	4.167	1.390	0.487	0.166
ATL	2-5	0.466	0.248	1.269	0.509	0.174	0.061	0.021
BUF	3-5	0.448	2.882	7.758	2.734	0.833	0.271	0.089
OAK	3-4	0.444	0.041	9.343	3.340	0.978	0.316	0.102
PIT	2-5	0.436	0.968	2.925	1.045	0.307	0.097	0.031
PHI	3-5	0.433	9.390	10.813	3.567	1.091	0.344	0.106
STL	3-5	0.433	0.027	0.767	0.269	0.081	0.026	0.008
CLE	3-5	0.430	2.542	7.693	2.756	0.803	0.248	0.077
WAS	2-5	0.413	4.300	4.555	1.398	0.407	0.122	0.036
MIN	1-6	0.402	0.008	0.041	0.013	0.004	0.001	0.000
NYJ	4-4	0.368	2.830	7.729	2.179	0.520	0.134	0.035
HOU	2-5	0.368	1.130	2.345	0.680	0.165	0.043	0.011
TB	0-7	0.363	0.000	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYG	2-6	0.351	1.083	1.116	0.278	0.066	0.016	0.004
JAC	0-8	0.267	0.003	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]

2013 World Series Projection, October 29

Boston over St. Louis

World Series
STL 2-3 BOS

League Championship Series
DET 2-4 BOS
LAD 2-4 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

Team	Strength	Win
STL	0.6228	25.48
BOS	0.6184	74.52

Now, Boston is definitely in the driver's seat. Betting odds for the Cardinals would be about 4:1, and probably even longer since both games are now on the road. But, maybe Michael Wacha has one more amazing performance in him for Wednesday night.

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Kansas City over Seattle

The top and bottom of the league stay the same, although Seattle will probably have to win Monday to avoid giving up the NFC position to New Orleans. One quirk of Kansas City and Denver's dominance is that San Diego is sitting in the top half of the league at 4-3, but with only a 1.1% chance of winning the division. Other than Denver, they've got one of the largest gaps between their Division and overall playoff (that's Division + Wildcard) odds.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	8-0	0.692	70.238	99.556	87.838	53.522	32.046	18.546
CAR	4-3	0.652	25.680	57.951	38.731	21.133	11.412	5.933
DEN	7-1	0.648	28.597	95.545	66.323	34.371	18.428	9.778
SEA	6-1	0.639	68.886	95.062	79.514	42.912	22.687	11.468
NO	6-1	0.637	74.066	90.511	73.972	40.227	21.080	10.625
SF	6-2	0.637	30.294	84.374	58.854	30.973	16.275	8.188
CIN	6-2	0.610	89.654	93.307	71.800	36.199	16.798	8.226
IND	5-2	0.607	88.013	91.500	64.188	31.771	14.739	7.176
GB	5-2	0.591	61.174	76.518	53.008	24.848	11.620	5.295
NE	6-2	0.579	89.685	92.389	57.246	26.068	11.342	5.197
DAL	4-4	0.577	85.251	85.565	42.891	19.458	8.870	3.920
SD	4-3	0.550	1.124	31.068	14.868	5.845	2.456	1.053
DET	5-3	0.536	27.349	55.988	30.880	12.621	5.198	2.090
CHI	4-3	0.511	11.468	23.133	11.136	4.251	1.661	0.627
TEN	3-4	0.498	10.838	27.858	12.081	4.290	1.571	0.595
BAL	3-4	0.485	6.842	16.841	7.168	2.463	0.875	0.321
MIA	3-4	0.469	4.614	14.073	5.738	1.865	0.637	0.225
ARI	4-4	0.469	0.484	10.796	4.278	1.471	0.521	0.177
ATL	2-5	0.466	0.253	1.332	0.537	0.188	0.067	0.023
BUF	3-5	0.448	2.875	7.766	2.739	0.833	0.271	0.090
STL	3-4	0.447	0.336	2.247	0.868	0.287	0.097	0.031
OAK	3-4	0.444	0.041	9.358	3.342	0.978	0.316	0.104
PIT	2-5	0.435	0.966	2.932	1.047	0.307	0.096	0.031
PHI	3-5	0.433	9.360	10.792	3.614	1.134	0.364	0.112
CLE	3-5	0.430	2.538	7.696	2.757	0.803	0.248	0.079
WAS	2-5	0.413	4.289	4.546	1.414	0.422	0.128	0.037
MIN	1-6	0.402	0.009	0.045	0.015	0.004	0.001	0.000
NYJ	4-4	0.368	2.826	7.748	2.182	0.520	0.134	0.036
HOU	2-5	0.368	1.146	2.359	0.683	0.165	0.043	0.011
TB	0-7	0.363	0.000	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYG	2-6	0.351	1.101	1.137	0.287	0.070	0.018	0.004
JAC	0-8	0.267	0.003	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]

2013 World Series Projection, October 28

St. Louis over Boston

World Series
STL 2-2 BOS

League Championship Series
DET 2-4 BOS
LAD 2-4 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

Team	Strength	Win
STL	0.6228	50.71
BOS	0.6184	49.29

This series is now as even as it's been, and the only way it can only be closer is if there's a game 7. Next year I'll have to integrate home field advantage into the projections, because it really doesn't feel that even right now, since it's effectively a 3-game series with Boston hosting up to 2 games. However, one quote from David Ortiz's postgame interview made me feel less nervous. When asked who was now in the driver's seat, he said "Nobody...Even Steven".

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

In computer rankings, there's no such thing as a bad loss or a good/tough loss, because the BCS computers can't take scores or margin of victory or anything other than the win/loss result of each game into account. Still, I'd rank Missouri's loss to South Carolina particularly bad. That's not because it was a blowout, but rather because Mizzou was up by 17 points at the start of the 4th Quarter, and 10 points when they got the ball back with 12 minutes to go, and still up by 7 points when they got the ball with 5 minutes to go. Unfortunately for them, voters make up 2/3 of the BCS, and will likely punish them for this loss worse than the computers will.

The new #1 is 8-0 Oregon, who - I don't think - has been #1 yet this year. Miami of Ohio is hanging on to the bottom slot at 0-8.

1	Oregon	8-0
2	Alabama	8-0
3	Ohio State	8-0
4	Florida State	7-0
5	Stanford	7-1
6	Missouri	7-1
7	Northern Illinois	8-0
8	Clemson	7-1
9	Auburn	7-1
10	Oklahoma	7-1
11	Ball State	8-1
12	Baylor	7-0
13	LSU	7-2
14	Michigan State	7-1
15	Texas Tech	7-1
16	Miami (FL)	7-0
17	Fresno State	7-0
18	Texas A&M	6-2
19	Louisville	7-1
20	Brigham Young	6-2
21	Virginia Tech	6-2
22	South Carolina	6-2
23	Minnesota	6-2
24	Notre Dame	6-2
25	Michigan	6-1
26	Duke	6-2
27	Houston	6-1
28	Oregon State	6-2
29	Tulane	6-2
30	Oklahoma State	6-1
31	Arizona State	5-2
32	UCF	6-1
33	Arizona	5-2
34	Ole Miss	5-3
35	Washington	5-3
36	Toledo	5-3
37	Rice	6-2
38	Ohio	6-2
39	Iowa	5-3
40	Buffalo	6-2
41	UCLA	5-2
42	Georgia Tech	5-3
43	Texas	5-2
44	USC	5-3
45	Georgia	4-3
46	East Carolina	5-2
47	Wisconsin	5-2
48	Nebraska	5-2
49	Louisiana-Lafayette	5-2
50	Boise State	5-3
51	North Texas	5-3
52	Maryland	5-3
53	UNLV	5-3
54	Mississippi State	4-3
55	Florida	4-3
56	Texas State	5-3
57	Utah	4-4
58	Washington State	4-4
59	Bowling Green	5-3
60	Pittsburgh	4-3
61	Troy	5-3
62	Tennessee	4-4
63	Navy	4-3
64	Northwestern	4-4
64	Penn State	4-3
66	Rutgers	4-3
67	San Jose State	4-3
68	Wake Forest	4-4
69	Vanderbilt	4-4
70	Louisiana-Monroe	4-4
71	Colorado	3-4
72	Cincinnati	5-2
73	Marshall	4-3
74	TCU	3-5
75	Utah State	4-4
76	Middle Tennessee	4-4
77	Western Kentucky	4-4
78	Kansas State	3-4
79	Indiana	3-4
80	Boston College	3-4
81	West Virginia	3-5
82	Arkansas	3-5
83	Syracuse	3-4
84	Colorado State	4-4
85	Illinois	3-4
86	South Alabama	3-4
87	San Diego State	3-4
88	Central Michigan	3-5
89	Southern Methodist	3-4
90	North Carolina State	3-4
91	Wyoming	4-4
92	Arkansas State	3-4
93	UTSA	3-5
94	North Carolina	2-5
95	Nevada	3-5
96	Kansas	2-5
97	Virginia	2-6
98	Army	3-5
99	South Florida	2-5
100	Akron	2-7
101	Louisiana Tech	3-5
102	Florida Atlantic	2-6
103	Kent State	2-7
104	Tulsa	2-5
105	UAB	2-5
106	Iowa State	1-6
107	California	1-7
108	Memphis	1-5
109	Purdue	1-6
110	New Mexico	2-5
111	Kentucky	1-6
112	Eastern Michigan	1-7
113	Temple	1-7
114	Idaho	1-7
115	Florida International	1-6
116	Western Michigan	1-8
117	New Mexico State	1-7
118	Air Force	1-7
119	Massachusetts	1-7
120	Connecticut	0-7
121	Hawaii	0-7
122	UTEP	1-6
123	Southern Miss	0-7
124	Miami (OH)	0-8

2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8

2013 World Series Projection, October 27

St. Louis over Boston

World Series
STL 2-1 BOS

League Championship Series
DET 2-4 BOS
LAD 2-4 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

Team	Strength	Win
STL	0.6228	69.46
BOS	0.6184	30.54

I'm not even sure what to say about the game-ending interference call last night. Either way, the Cardinals are in the driver's seat and have a 69% chance of beating the Red Sox now.

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 8, Thursday

Kansas City over Seattle

Somehow I didn't realize Tampa Bay had also not won a game yet when I mentioned the previous winless teams sitting around waiting for Jacksonville to win. It's a sad state of affairs in Florida football right now. Miami's got the only wins, and sits at 3-3.

Carolina has climbed to the top NFC strength, and not simply because of an extra game, because they have played 7 just like Seattle has right now. That 38-0 game over the Giants really improved their points for and points against ratio. Still, they'll have a lot more trouble making the playoffs than Seattle and New Orleans, who are both projected to be more likely to make the Superbowl than Carolina.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	7-0	0.675	71.215	98.549	88.043	54.478	33.329	19.180
CAR	4-3	0.652	34.097	66.580	46.025	25.976	14.509	7.905
SEA	6-1	0.639	78.688	96.523	84.511	47.606	26.125	13.866
DEN	6-1	0.621	26.560	89.780	62.914	32.376	17.260	8.914
NO	5-1	0.610	64.340	85.824	66.263	34.824	17.672	8.843
IND	5-2	0.607	88.628	91.821	71.538	39.166	19.155	9.613
SF	5-2	0.583	20.488	76.563	47.389	22.533	10.818	5.114
DAL	4-3	0.580	81.162	83.492	50.365	23.938	11.315	5.319
GB	4-2	0.574	56.332	69.734	46.627	21.855	10.185	4.731
NE	5-2	0.558	66.270	75.092	47.642	22.106	9.712	4.391
SD	4-3	0.550	2.178	31.734	17.024	7.153	3.216	1.426
DET	4-3	0.535	26.402	47.530	26.158	11.112	4.750	2.022
CIN	5-2	0.530	71.723	77.648	50.321	21.930	8.958	3.802
CHI	4-3	0.511	16.991	29.408	14.794	5.907	2.394	0.964
TEN	3-4	0.498	10.282	25.613	12.872	5.091	1.983	0.779
ATL	2-4	0.493	1.562	6.752	3.078	1.200	0.474	0.183
MIA	3-3	0.490	14.377	24.277	12.492	4.792	1.813	0.701
BAL	3-4	0.485	14.108	20.487	9.585	3.580	1.348	0.514
BUF	3-4	0.481	7.240	13.459	5.962	2.197	0.828	0.312
PHI	3-4	0.452	13.524	19.863	8.085	2.795	0.980	0.342
WAS	2-4	0.448	5.041	6.667	2.507	0.856	0.298	0.103
STL	3-4	0.447	0.554	3.682	1.463	0.503	0.176	0.061
CLE	3-4	0.444	9.030	14.591	6.158	2.069	0.704	0.242
PIT	2-4	0.443	5.139	8.529	3.534	1.172	0.399	0.136
NYJ	4-3	0.439	12.113	21.792	9.411	3.136	1.048	0.357
ARI	3-4	0.439	0.270	6.549	2.461	0.816	0.280	0.094
OAK	2-4	0.438	0.048	4.563	1.807	0.559	0.193	0.065
MIN	1-5	0.417	0.274	0.518	0.187	0.058	0.018	0.006
HOU	2-5	0.368	1.080	2.053	0.695	0.195	0.055	0.015
TB	0-7	0.363	0.001	0.005	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYG	1-6	0.354	0.273	0.309	0.086	0.022	0.006	0.002
JAC	0-7	0.298	0.010	0.013	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]

2013 World Series Projection, October 25

St. Louis over Boston

World Series
STL 1-1 BOS

League Championship Series
DET 2-4 BOS
LAD 2-4 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

Team	Strength	Win
STL	0.6228	50.89
BOS	0.6184	49.11

Just like that, by pulling even in the series, St. Louis is again the favorite. As I stated before, the margin is now smaller than it was when the series was 0-0, from 51.03-48.97 to 50.89-49.11. However, the Cardinals now have the home field advantage, with 3 games at home to only up to 2 more in Boston.

eBay Wins #89

All the errors, the injury, and the overturned call at second base (to the right call) so early in game 1 felt a little strange...almost Doug Strange.

1990 Donruss #535 Doug Strange

Remember, once Doug left the Tigers after 1989, they were all Dougless. That joke doesn't work nearly as well in writing.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	2478
Total Spent	$43.63
Per Card	1.761 cents

2013 World Series Projection, October 24

Boston over St. Louis

World Series
STL 0-1 BOS

League Championship Series
DET 2-4 BOS
LAD 2-4 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

Team	Strength	Win
STL	0.6228	35.27
BOS	0.6184	64.73

Despite the blowout last night, I've got these two teams almost evenly matched, which means the favorite is always going to be the team that's leading. So the only interesting part of the projection is the percentage chance of winning. As the series moves on, ties at 1-1, 2-2, or 3-3 will put it even closer to a coin toss than my initial 51.03-48.97 projection. That's because each game favors St. Louis at just 50.47%, which would be their chances of winning game 7 in a 3-3 tie. Right now, though, you'd have to give me nearly 2:1 odds to take the Cardinals, were I more of a betting man.

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 7, Final

Kansas City over Seattle

Last night was certainly no battle of league juggernauts. The game featured teams #31 and #28 out of 32 as far as strength goes. The Giants pulled out of their winless season, leaving only Jacksonville winless.  Much like the 1972 Dolphins are waiting around for the Chiefs to lose a game so they can pop the champagne - or so the legend goes - do you think the 1976 Buccanneers or 2008 Lions are sitting around with a lukewarm case of Stag beer if Jacksonville finally wins?

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	7-0	0.675	71.211	98.544	88.019	54.461	33.325	19.396
SEA	6-1	0.639	78.267	96.756	84.659	48.299	26.937	14.296
CAR	3-3	0.622	25.388	53.411	34.312	18.194	9.592	4.918
DEN	6-1	0.621	26.564	89.746	62.878	32.358	17.251	9.025
NO	5-1	0.610	72.577	87.904	69.435	37.102	19.029	9.522
IND	5-2	0.607	88.626	91.806	71.413	39.087	19.116	9.720
SF	5-2	0.583	20.910	78.234	48.694	23.385	11.417	5.398
DAL	4-3	0.580	81.146	83.792	51.513	24.824	11.886	5.586
GB	4-2	0.574	56.543	71.401	48.381	23.015	10.862	5.045
NE	5-2	0.558	66.705	75.582	48.158	22.355	9.823	4.506
SD	4-3	0.550	2.176	31.672	16.989	7.138	3.210	1.446
DET	4-3	0.535	26.065	49.050	27.310	11.745	5.087	2.167
CIN	5-2	0.530	71.733	77.631	50.212	21.879	8.934	3.852
CHI	4-3	0.511	17.114	31.354	16.016	6.481	2.663	1.072
TEN	3-4	0.498	10.285	25.538	12.815	5.070	1.975	0.789
ATL	2-4	0.493	2.012	7.945	3.640	1.425	0.569	0.219
MIA	3-3	0.490	14.190	24.182	12.449	4.776	1.804	0.708
BAL	3-4	0.485	14.103	20.461	9.562	3.570	1.346	0.520
BUF	3-4	0.481	6.903	12.998	5.757	2.121	0.799	0.306
PHI	3-4	0.452	13.540	20.744	8.618	3.014	1.074	0.373
WAS	2-4	0.448	5.042	6.962	2.674	0.923	0.328	0.113
STL	3-4	0.447	0.545	3.951	1.582	0.549	0.196	0.067
CLE	3-4	0.444	9.024	14.563	6.140	2.063	0.701	0.245
PIT	2-4	0.443	5.139	8.515	3.526	1.168	0.398	0.139
NYJ	4-3	0.439	12.202	22.165	9.593	3.201	1.071	0.370
ARI	3-4	0.439	0.277	7.525	2.839	0.947	0.330	0.111
OAK	2-4	0.438	0.048	4.539	1.796	0.557	0.192	0.066
MIN	1-5	0.417	0.278	0.580	0.213	0.067	0.022	0.007
TB	0-6	0.396	0.022	0.071	0.024	0.007	0.002	0.001
HOU	2-5	0.368	1.078	2.045	0.690	0.194	0.054	0.015
NYG	1-6	0.354	0.273	0.319	0.091	0.024	0.006	0.002
JAC	0-7	0.298	0.010	0.013	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 7, Sunday

Kansas City over Seattle

Kansas City and Seattle remain on top, while Denver drops a game back in the standings behind KC. The two still have their 2 division games upcoming, which could swing those standings the opposite way, but it's clear now Peyton Manning is not invincible on the road.

The Rams let Steve Smith rile them up with trash talk, and lost their cool against the Panthers. There were entirely too many scuffles, fights, and ejections (1). Oh, and we lost our QB for the rest of the year. The Rams don't have the raw talent to make up for meltdowns like that, so they're going to have to learn to combat trash talk with excellent play, not behavior that gets penalized. Jeff Fisher seemed really vague about the plans for the Rams at QB, but the current word is that Kellen Clemens is starting Monday Night next week, Tim Tebow is off the table, and the Rams haven't ruled out picking up multiple QBs, since they're down to 1 at the moment. I hear Marc Bulger still lives in town...

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	7-0	0.676	71.203	98.546	88.026	54.473	33.325	19.401
SEA	6-1	0.639	78.040	96.624	84.472	48.201	26.896	14.272
CAR	3-3	0.622	25.392	53.709	34.606	18.363	9.683	4.964
DEN	6-1	0.621	26.567	89.744	62.899	32.377	17.261	9.029
NO	5-1	0.610	72.576	87.969	69.652	37.234	19.098	9.556
IND	5-2	0.607	88.635	91.817	71.507	39.139	19.143	9.737
SF	5-2	0.583	21.122	78.287	48.854	23.475	11.465	5.419
DAL	4-3	0.580	81.242	83.807	51.461	24.804	11.878	5.582
GB	4-2	0.575	55.613	70.300	47.568	22.618	10.670	4.957
NE	5-2	0.558	66.716	75.632	48.292	22.418	9.845	4.513
SD	4-3	0.550	2.182	31.721	17.018	7.148	3.215	1.448
DET	4-3	0.535	26.183	48.665	27.158	11.679	5.057	2.152
CIN	5-2	0.530	71.482	77.349	49.855	21.715	8.871	3.823
CHI	4-3	0.511	17.125	31.046	15.867	6.422	2.634	1.061
TEN	3-4	0.498	10.278	25.551	12.830	5.074	1.976	0.790
ATL	2-4	0.493	2.010	8.009	3.679	1.443	0.576	0.222
MIA	3-3	0.490	14.188	24.217	12.478	4.783	1.809	0.710
BAL	3-4	0.485	14.037	20.239	9.444	3.527	1.326	0.514
BUF	3-4	0.481	6.899	13.032	5.777	2.126	0.802	0.308
PHI	3-4	0.452	13.550	20.547	8.530	2.985	1.063	0.369
WAS	2-4	0.448	5.058	6.909	2.651	0.916	0.325	0.112
MIN	1-4	0.447	1.079	2.401	0.995	0.340	0.120	0.041
STL	3-4	0.447	0.556	3.964	1.592	0.553	0.199	0.069
CLE	3-4	0.444	9.229	14.753	6.213	2.087	0.710	0.248
PIT	2-4	0.443	5.252	8.598	3.555	1.177	0.401	0.139
NYJ	4-3	0.439	12.197	22.211	9.618	3.207	1.071	0.370
ARI	3-4	0.439	0.282	7.520	2.842	0.947	0.330	0.111
OAK	2-4	0.438	0.048	4.532	1.791	0.553	0.191	0.066
TB	0-6	0.396	0.023	0.072	0.024	0.007	0.002	0.001
HOU	2-5	0.368	1.077	2.046	0.693	0.194	0.054	0.015
NYG	0-6	0.352	0.149	0.170	0.048	0.013	0.003	0.001
JAC	0-7	0.298	0.010	0.013	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

The closest team I have to "my" team, Missouri, has taken over the #1 slot. My alma mater, SLU, doesn't have a football team, but lots of friends and family have attended Mizzou, and they're the nearest FBS team, so what the heck, I root for them.

10 teams remain undefeated this week, with Miami (Florida) ranked lowest among them at #21, well below #14 LSU with 2 losses. Meanwhile, Miami (Ohio) held on to the bottom rank with another loss.

I didn't watch many games yesterday, but I did see the end of the Notre Dame-USC game, which vaulted the Fighting Irish into my top 25.

1	Missouri	7-0
2	Oregon	7-0
3	Ohio State	7-0
4	Alabama	7-0
5	Florida State	6-0
6	Texas Tech	7-0
7	Northern Illinois	7-0
8	Stanford	6-1
9	Clemson	6-1
10	Auburn	6-1
11	Ball State	7-1
12	Virginia Tech	6-1
13	Baylor	6-0
14	LSU	6-2
15	Oklahoma	6-1
16	Michigan	6-1
17	Oregon State	6-1
18	Fresno State	6-0
19	Michigan State	6-1
20	Louisville	6-1
21	Miami (FL)	6-0
22	Arizona State	5-2
23	Texas A&M	5-2
24	Notre Dame	5-2
25	Brigham Young	5-2
26	UCLA	5-1
27	UCF	5-1
28	Tulane	5-2
29	South Carolina	5-2
30	Wisconsin	5-2
31	Minnesota	5-2
32	Oklahoma State	5-1
33	Houston	5-1
34	Nebraska	5-1
35	Georgia	4-3
36	Duke	5-2
37	Boise State	5-2
38	Maryland	5-2
39	East Carolina	5-2
40	Ole Miss	4-3
41	Washington	4-3
42	Ohio	5-2
43	Bowling Green	5-2
44	Utah	4-3
45	Rice	5-2
46	Arizona	4-2
47	Florida	4-3
48	Pittsburgh	4-2
49	Buffalo	5-2
50	Washington State	4-4
51	Tennessee	4-3
52	Toledo	4-3
53	Georgia Tech	4-3
54	USC	4-3
55	Northwestern	4-3
56	Penn State	4-2
57	Iowa	4-3
58	Texas	4-2
59	North Texas	4-3
60	Rutgers	4-2
61	Louisiana-Lafayette	4-2
62	Wake Forest	4-3
63	Marshall	4-2
64	Vanderbilt	4-3
65	Cincinnati	5-2
66	Colorado	3-3
67	Mississippi State	3-3
68	UNLV	4-3
69	Texas State	4-3
70	Western Kentucky	4-3
71	Boston College	3-3
72	TCU	3-4
73	West Virginia	3-4
74	Utah State	4-4
75	Indiana	3-4
76	Troy	4-3
77	South Alabama	3-3
78	Illinois	3-3
79	Syracuse	3-4
80	Louisiana-Monroe	3-4
81	Arkansas	3-5
82	Navy	3-3
83	Wyoming	4-3
84	San Jose State	3-3
85	San Diego State	3-3
86	North Carolina State	3-3
87	Central Michigan	3-5
88	Arkansas State	3-3
89	Nevada	3-4
90	Colorado State	3-4
91	Kansas State	2-4
92	Middle Tennessee	3-4
93	Virginia	2-5
94	Southern Methodist	2-4
95	Kansas	2-4
96	Army	3-5
97	South Florida	2-4
98	Akron	2-6
99	Kent State	2-6
100	Florida Atlantic	2-5
101	Tulsa	2-4
102	UAB	2-4
103	UTSA	2-5
104	North Carolina	1-5
105	California	1-6
106	Iowa State	1-5
107	Louisiana Tech	2-5
108	Purdue	1-6
109	Kentucky	1-5
110	New Mexico	2-5
111	Florida International	1-5
112	Temple	1-6
113	Memphis	1-5
114	Idaho	1-6
115	Eastern Michigan	1-6
116	Massachusetts	1-6
117	Air Force	1-6
118	Connecticut	0-6
119	Hawaii	0-6
120	Southern Miss	0-6
121	Western Michigan	0-8
122	UTEP	1-5
123	New Mexico State	0-7
124	Miami (OH)	0-7

2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7

2013 World Series Projection, October 20

St. Louis over Boston

World Series
STL 0-0 BOS

League Championship Series
DET 2-4 BOS
LAD 2-4 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

Team	Strength	Win
STL	0.6228	51.03
BOS	0.6184	48.97

The World Series matchup is set, as Boston won 5-2 on Shane Victorino's Grand Slam. I've got the St. Louis as slight favorites, but this pretty much amounts to a tossup. Boston looked pretty strong in the ALCS, so hopefully the Cardinals pitching will quiet their bats a bit, and games 3-5 will be their only chances to face a David-Ortiz-free lineup, most likely. Today will be the first day without baseball since the All-Star break, because of the extra wildcard play-in in the AL, and the 5-game LDSs in each league.

2013 World Series Projection, October 19

St. Louis over Boston

League Championship Series
DET 2-3 BOS
LAD 2-4 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

Team	Strength	WS	Win
STL	0.6228	100.00	51.50
BOS	0.6184	75.87	37.15
DET	0.6100	24.13	11.35

The Cardinals are in! The offense finally broke out last night and scored 9 runs, and Michael Wacha shut down the Dodgers for 7 innings to win the game and the NLCS MVP. Now they'll have 4 days off, so they'll be able to set their rotation however they'd like to face Boston or Detroit next Wednesday.

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Kansas City over Seattle

Seattle predictably beat Arizona last night, and so improved their position in the NFC West, NFC, as well as the league overall. They're now the 2nd strongest team, up from the third, which doesn't make much difference unless they actually take on Denver in the Superbowl. Their next game is at the Rams, a game they lost last year, so hopefully history will repeat itself there.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	6-0	0.660	58.924	97.070	81.747	48.891	29.260	16.893
SEA	6-1	0.639	83.848	96.675	86.741	51.504	29.647	16.031
DEN	6-0	0.622	39.807	93.560	70.284	37.485	20.440	10.967
NO	5-1	0.610	80.334	90.454	73.934	41.313	21.773	11.111
IND	4-2	0.603	75.441	80.514	55.595	29.748	14.885	7.695
CAR	2-3	0.595	18.088	39.928	24.726	12.695	6.501	3.221
NE	5-1	0.568	76.576	85.098	63.634	31.348	14.323	6.891
SF	4-2	0.556	14.010	65.026	38.414	17.737	8.431	3.845
DAL	3-3	0.551	59.960	65.746	38.336	17.695	8.145	3.671
GB	3-2	0.542	33.555	54.365	34.306	15.561	7.031	3.107
DET	4-2	0.540	38.879	63.184	39.841	18.017	8.108	3.572
TEN	3-3	0.530	22.281	38.629	20.901	9.217	3.939	1.745
CIN	4-2	0.524	52.115	61.546	37.005	15.998	6.642	2.907
CHI	4-2	0.519	26.585	48.312	28.035	11.965	5.131	2.151
SD	3-3	0.512	1.217	18.472	9.090	3.602	1.511	0.643
MIA	3-2	0.494	17.084	35.967	20.028	7.993	3.104	1.267
BAL	3-3	0.492	25.351	33.375	16.745	6.625	2.567	1.042
CLE	3-3	0.484	19.336	27.033	13.099	5.075	1.936	0.771
PHI	3-3	0.479	36.122	43.870	21.588	8.372	3.266	1.246
ATL	1-4	0.478	1.457	5.885	2.698	1.044	0.417	0.159
BUF	2-4	0.478	2.319	6.521	2.930	1.095	0.417	0.164
STL	3-3	0.475	1.790	11.034	5.133	1.963	0.784	0.297
MIN	1-4	0.447	0.981	2.792	1.215	0.425	0.156	0.055
ARI	3-4	0.439	0.352	7.368	2.949	1.003	0.363	0.125
PIT	1-4	0.439	3.198	4.650	1.858	0.629	0.216	0.077
OAK	2-4	0.438	0.052	3.889	1.529	0.493	0.173	0.062
WAS	1-4	0.436	3.694	4.740	1.871	0.639	0.226	0.078
NYJ	3-3	0.430	4.021	10.073	4.327	1.435	0.480	0.168
TB	0-5	0.407	0.120	0.368	0.136	0.044	0.015	0.005
HOU	2-4	0.379	2.215	3.517	1.207	0.361	0.107	0.032
NYG	0-6	0.353	0.223	0.252	0.077	0.021	0.006	0.002
JAC	0-6	0.328	0.063	0.087	0.022	0.005	0.001	0.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]

2013 World Series Projection, October 18

St. Louis over Boston

League Championship Series
DET 2-3 BOS
LAD 2-3 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

Team	Strength	WS	Win
STL	0.6228	81.92	42.19
BOS	0.6184	75.87	39.36
DET	0.6100	24.13	12.06
LAD	0.5499	18.08	6.40

Both LCSs are 3-2 in favor of the #1 seed over the #3 seed, so my most common projection through the whole postseason remains for today, with St. Louis projected to beat Boston. Hopefully the NLCS ends tonight.

Some of Jaybarkerfan's Junk

Back in August, jaybarkerfan of Jaybarkerfan's Junk held a contest, but it wasn't so simple to enter. The 22 contestants were chosen one by one, randomized from those who commented on a post. So when I didn't win slot #1 get picked by commenting on post 1, I had to do it again for a chance at slot #2, etc. I wound up getting in, and drawing the 18th pick in a draft of 25 lots of cards.

I wanted to be ready to make my pick, so I ranked all 25 prizes on a scrap of paper at my desk, though I made an assumption that something baseball would be left, and didn't really worry about the football, hockey, basketball, or wrestling cards. Many of my top choices went before it was time for my pick, of course, but there was one that everyone shied away from, which was still somewhat high on my original list.

I give you the prize entitled: Juiced Up

2013 Topps - Manufactured Commemorative Patch #CP-17 Ryan Braun

2006 Topps Bazooka - Blasts Bat Relics #BBL-SS Sammy Sosa

I've always liked that Milwaukee Brewers logo. It's an M, a B, a glove, and a ball. What more do you really need? And Sammy Sosa was a big part of the home run chase in 1998 with Mark McGwire, which had this whole town even more baseball-crazy for a few months.

Clearly, the prize was titled Juiced Up due to the connection of both of these players to performance enhancing drugs. Braun has served his suspension, while Sosa and McGwire were never caught - or at least never punished - during their playing careers. We're probably not completely out of the PED era yet, but hopefully with the new testing policies and apparent willingness of MLB to come down hard on even star players, we'll see a stark reductions in PED abuse and fewer suspensions in 2014 and beyond.

Aside from that dark side of baseball, these are 2 pretty cool cards, especially as a prize, and Sosa's a player of whom I didn't yet own a relic.

Thanks for the cards, jaybarkerfan! 

2013 World Series Projection, October 17

St. Louis over Boston

League Championship Series
DET 2-2 BOS
LAD 2-3 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

Team	Strength	WS	Win
STL	0.6228	81.92	42.57
BOS	0.6184	51.32	26.62
DET	0.6100	48.68	24.33
LAD	0.5499	18.08	6.48

There will be plenty of outrage in St. Louis sports media today, as Mike Matheny chose to put in two relievers who have struggled, presumably to eat up some innings, when the Cardinals were already losing by 2. The 2 solo home runs they gave up would prove to be the difference in the game when the 9th inning comeback fell 2 runs short. Much like Mattingly pulling Adrian Gonzalez for a pinch runner and thus losing him for 6 innings of the 13 inning Game 1, it's easy to look at the move in retrospect as a poor choice, with the benefit of the knowledge of the results. If the game was lost 6-2, however, it would have appeared to be a sly move to keep Trevor Rosenthal and Seth Maness fresh for Friday.

Detroit, meanwhile, scored more than any team has in any LCS game so far, with 7. Personally, I enjoy the edge-of-your-seat feeling of 1-0 games, but it's nice to mix in a strong offensive performance now and then.

2013 World Series Projection, October 16

St. Louis over Boston

League Championship Series
DET 1-2 BOS
LAD 1-3 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

Team	Strength	WS	Win
STL	0.6228	92.31	47.64
BOS	0.6184	70.06	35.17
DET	0.6100	29.94	14.46
LAD	0.5499	7.69	2.73

The Cardinals are now favored to win the NL at over 92%, but we know what happened last year in this same situation, when San Francisco won 3 in a row to win the NLCS 4-3. So, I'm not taking anything for granted. Boston won again last night, keeping the AL title in their favor.

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 6, Final

Kansas City over Seattle

Both Kansas City and Denver got a boost when Indianapolis lost to fall to 4-2. Now only New England is right behind them at 5-1, with Indianapolis and Cincinnati 2 games back.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	6-0	0.660	58.909	97.078	81.734	48.898	29.259	17.144
DEN	6-0	0.622	39.819	93.582	70.279	37.490	20.438	11.150
SEA	5-1	0.621	75.050	91.970	78.801	45.297	25.267	13.198
NO	5-1	0.610	80.521	90.564	74.839	42.062	22.799	11.635
IND	4-2	0.603	75.419	80.390	55.360	29.609	14.825	7.800
CAR	2-3	0.595	17.925	39.134	24.493	12.786	6.691	3.308
NE	5-1	0.568	76.562	85.117	63.737	31.402	14.350	7.037
SF	4-2	0.556	19.477	64.343	39.710	18.903	9.117	4.154
DAL	3-3	0.551	60.189	65.772	38.946	18.330	8.601	3.879
GB	3-2	0.542	33.532	53.933	34.586	16.025	7.386	3.267
DET	4-2	0.540	38.872	62.474	40.102	18.533	8.512	3.748
TEN	3-3	0.530	22.300	38.404	20.764	9.162	3.918	1.768
CIN	4-2	0.524	52.117	61.564	37.069	16.026	6.647	2.965
CHI	4-2	0.519	26.592	47.766	28.273	12.347	5.402	2.263
SD	3-3	0.512	1.219	18.548	9.120	3.619	1.521	0.662
MIA	3-2	0.494	17.100	36.023	20.084	8.022	3.127	1.306
BAL	3-3	0.492	25.357	33.416	16.804	6.640	2.571	1.067
CLE	3-3	0.484	19.327	27.055	13.134	5.096	1.943	0.791
PHI	3-3	0.479	35.849	43.267	21.611	8.578	3.421	1.305
ATL	1-4	0.478	1.433	5.769	2.675	1.063	0.435	0.165
BUF	2-4	0.478	2.316	6.546	2.941	1.099	0.419	0.169
STL	3-3	0.475	2.659	11.389	5.456	2.159	0.875	0.332
ARI	3-3	0.463	2.814	15.494	7.178	2.738	1.064	0.390
MIN	1-4	0.447	1.003	2.794	1.236	0.448	0.168	0.060
PIT	1-4	0.439	3.198	4.666	1.868	0.634	0.218	0.079
OAK	2-4	0.438	0.053	3.919	1.541	0.496	0.174	0.063
WAS	1-4	0.436	3.732	4.715	1.881	0.664	0.240	0.082
NYJ	3-3	0.430	4.021	10.124	4.357	1.445	0.484	0.173
TB	0-5	0.407	0.121	0.359	0.134	0.045	0.015	0.005
HOU	2-4	0.379	2.218	3.481	1.187	0.356	0.106	0.033
NYG	0-6	0.353	0.231	0.258	0.080	0.022	0.006	0.002
JAC	0-6	0.328	0.063	0.087	0.022	0.006	0.002	0.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]

2013 World Series Projection, October 15

St. Louis over Boston

League Championship Series
DET 1-1 BOS
LAD 1-2 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

Team	Strength	WS	Win
STL	0.6228	79.05	41.08
BOS	0.6184	51.65	27.03
DET	0.6100	48.35	24.39
LAD	0.5499	20.95	7.51

Los Angeles has ensured the NLCS will go to at least 5 games. If you looked at the pitching matchups for this series in advance, I think the reverse of all 3 results would be the typical expectation. Greinke and Kershaw against guys with a lot less name recognition or experience, Lynn and Wacha, would seem to tip the scales for LA, yet Wainwright against Ryu should normally go St. Louis's way. But, that's why they play the games. I've still got St. Louis and Boston favored to make the World Series, a rematch - with hopefully a different result - of 2004.

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Kansas City over Seattle

Combined, Kansas City and Denver win the AFC West title in 99.425% of my simulations, and the two division rivals are now the two strongest teams in the league. Now that New Orleans has lost, these are the only 2 undefeated teams left, and of course they can't both finish undefeated, as they have 2 games against each other in their future.

At the bottom of the league, Jacksonville and Tampa lost again, but Pittsburgh won, leaving 3 winless teams. There are no games between them, so it's still possible we could have 3 0-16 teams.

And somewhere around the middle, the St. Louis pulled off a win against the struggling Houston, a game that came at a time the Rams are on the move with a new starting running back, and the Texans were on a cold streak with 3 straight losses. The Rams are still down in the division thanks to San Francisco and Seattle, but a few more lucky breaks could increase their 11% chance of making the playoffs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	6-0	0.660	59.295	97.448	81.881	48.837	28.977	16.979
DEN	6-0	0.622	40.130	94.231	70.631	37.516	20.276	11.060
SEA	5-1	0.621	75.074	91.989	78.829	45.318	25.304	13.160
NO	5-1	0.610	80.524	90.563	74.852	42.065	22.784	11.571
IND	4-1	0.608	82.016	87.665	65.857	35.685	17.932	9.511
CAR	2-3	0.595	17.925	39.159	24.509	12.785	6.688	3.295
NE	5-1	0.568	76.456	85.285	61.253	29.636	13.532	6.629
SF	4-2	0.556	19.484	64.364	39.705	18.900	9.108	4.132
DAL	3-3	0.551	60.154	65.746	38.923	18.327	8.604	3.858
GB	3-2	0.542	33.541	53.934	34.583	16.021	7.387	3.246
DET	4-2	0.540	38.868	62.497	40.122	18.534	8.507	3.726
TEN	3-3	0.530	16.511	37.121	19.726	8.545	3.635	1.642
CIN	4-2	0.524	52.339	62.263	36.097	15.383	6.373	2.843
CHI	4-2	0.519	26.592	47.764	28.267	12.351	5.405	2.252
MIA	3-2	0.494	17.226	37.024	19.775	7.765	3.009	1.254
SD	2-3	0.493	0.524	9.240	4.280	1.613	0.644	0.267
BAL	3-3	0.492	25.249	33.596	16.168	6.290	2.433	1.008
CLE	3-3	0.484	19.236	27.178	12.684	4.838	1.843	0.751
PHI	3-3	0.479	35.816	43.241	21.593	8.576	3.415	1.294
ATL	1-4	0.478	1.430	5.759	2.670	1.062	0.432	0.164
BUF	2-4	0.478	2.310	6.748	2.945	1.085	0.412	0.165
STL	3-3	0.475	2.645	11.334	5.429	2.147	0.868	0.326
ARI	3-3	0.463	2.797	15.450	7.162	2.731	1.065	0.388
MIN	1-4	0.447	0.999	2.785	1.232	0.446	0.167	0.059
PIT	1-4	0.439	3.176	4.668	1.808	0.602	0.206	0.075
OAK	2-4	0.438	0.052	4.085	1.590	0.511	0.177	0.065
WAS	1-4	0.436	3.795	4.791	1.906	0.670	0.242	0.082
NYJ	3-3	0.430	4.008	10.363	4.253	1.388	0.462	0.166
TB	0-5	0.407	0.121	0.361	0.135	0.045	0.016	0.005
HOU	2-4	0.379	1.437	3.017	1.037	0.303	0.089	0.027
NYG	0-6	0.352	0.235	0.264	0.082	0.023	0.007	0.002
JAC	0-6	0.328	0.037	0.066	0.017	0.004	0.001	0.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]

2013 World Series Projection, October 14

St. Louis over Boston

League Championship Series
DET 1-1 BOS
LAD 0-2 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

Team	Strength	WS	Win
STL	0.6228	89.21	46.36
LAD	0.5499	10.79	3.87
BOS	0.6184	51.65	26.19
DET	0.6100	48.35	23.59

Boston is the ALCS favorite again, after tying the series in dramatic fashion last night. From a numbers standpoint, a 7 game series tied at 1-1 is equivalent to a 5-game series, since I don't take location into account. This means Boston's chances are slightly worse than they were at the beginning of the series, down from 51.92% to 51.65%, since the longer a series goes, the better chances the stronger team has. Tonight St. Louis could take an overwhelming 3-0 lead, which is almost insurmountable based on history, though famously was overcome by Boston against the New York in 2004 on their way to a World Series win over St. Louis

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

Ohio State lost my #1 ranking during their bye week, which they held on the strength of being the only 6-0 team, and now there are 8.

Clemson takes over at #1 with a win, and Mizzou climbed all the way to #2 by beating previously #17 Georgia. A victory next week over Florida would give them another, slightly smaller boost, though Clemson would retain #1 with a win since Florida State is ranked even higher.

All the way at the bottom is Miami (OH). Western Michigan, the only 7-loss team, avoids being ranked last because they've played 3 relatively higher ranked Big 10 teams, Northwestern, Iowa, and Michigan State.

1	Clemson	6-0
2	Missouri	6-0
3	LSU	6-1
4	Ohio State	6-0
5	Oregon	6-0
6	Virginia Tech	6-1
7	Alabama	6-0
8	Northern Illinois	6-0
9	Louisville	6-0
10	Florida State	5-0
10	Texas Tech	6-0
12	Stanford	5-1
13	Ball State	6-1
14	Texas A&M	5-1
15	Baylor	5-0
16	Auburn	5-1
17	Oklahoma	5-1
18	Michigan State	5-1
19	UCLA	5-0
20	Oregon State	5-1
21	Tulane	5-2
22	South Carolina	5-1
23	Nebraska	5-1
24	Miami (FL)	5-0
25	Fresno State	5-0
26	Michigan	5-1
27	Georgia	4-2
28	Maryland	5-1
29	Houston	5-0
30	Washington	4-2
31	Bowling Green	5-2
32	Arizona State	4-2
32	Utah	4-2
34	Florida	4-2
35	Washington State	4-3
36	Notre Dame	4-2
37	East Carolina	4-2
38	Northwestern	4-2
39	Penn State	4-2
40	Brigham Young	4-2
41	Oklahoma State	4-1
42	USC	4-2
43	Wisconsin	4-2
44	Duke	4-2
45	UCF	4-1
46	Rutgers	4-2
47	Minnesota	4-2
48	Rice	4-2
49	Boise State	4-2
50	Ohio	4-2
51	Marshall	4-2
52	Iowa	4-2
53	Texas	4-2
54	Mississippi State	3-3
55	Buffalo	4-2
56	UNLV	4-2
57	Western Kentucky	4-2
58	Boston College	3-3
59	Syracuse	3-3
60	Arizona	3-2
61	Ole Miss	3-3
62	Pittsburgh	3-2
63	TCU	3-3
64	West Virginia	3-3
65	Indiana	3-3
66	Illinois	3-2
67	Wyoming	4-2
68	North Texas	3-3
69	Toledo	3-3
70	Navy	3-2
71	Troy	4-3
72	Georgia Tech	3-3
73	Arkansas	3-4
74	Tennessee	3-3
75	Cincinnati	4-2
76	Louisiana-Monroe	3-4
77	Louisiana-Lafayette	3-2
78	Wake Forest	3-3
79	Texas State	3-3
80	North Carolina State	3-3
81	San Diego State	3-3
82	Vanderbilt	3-3
83	Arkansas State	3-3
84	San Jose State	3-3
85	Nevada	3-3
86	Central Michigan	3-4
87	Utah State	3-4
88	Army	3-4
89	South Alabama	2-3
90	Colorado	2-3
91	Virginia	2-4
92	Middle Tennessee	3-4
93	Kansas State	2-4
94	Kansas	2-3
95	Kent State	2-5
96	South Florida	2-4
97	Florida Atlantic	2-5
98	UAB	2-4
99	UTSA	2-5
100	Tulsa	2-4
101	Southern Methodist	1-4
102	Louisiana Tech	2-4
103	California	1-5
104	Colorado State	2-4
105	North Carolina	1-4
106	Akron	1-6
107	Iowa State	1-4
108	Memphis	1-4
109	Kentucky	1-5
110	New Mexico	2-4
111	Purdue	1-5
112	Florida International	1-5
113	Eastern Michigan	1-5
114	Idaho	1-6
115	Massachusetts	1-5
116	Connecticut	0-5
117	Air Force	1-6
118	Temple	0-6
119	Hawaii	0-6
120	Southern Miss	0-5
121	Western Michigan	0-7
122	UTEP	1-5
123	New Mexico State	0-6
124	Miami (OH)	0-6

2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6