2014 World Series Projection, October 5

Baltimore over San Francisco

Division Series
KC 2-0 LAA
DET 0-2 BAL
STL 1-1 LAD
SF 2-0 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT
First, I had a bit of a mixup yesterday, because I'm a bad software engineer, I guess. I didn't count KC's second win over LA, so here's the corrected table from yesterday

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
WAS	0.5955	40.74	25.70	14.88
LAA	0.5923	18.86	10.20	5.98
BAL	0.5783	90.66	54.21	30.13
LAD	0.5687	40.24	20.84	10.84
SF	0.5363	59.26	29.82	13.40
DET	0.5324	9.34	4.66	2.12
KC	0.5193	81.14	30.94	13.25
STL	0.5119	59.76	23.64	9.41

Obvious changes are that KC's LCS odds went way up, LA's went way down, and the NL teams' Championship odds went up slightly as the likelihood of playing the statistically weaker Royals increased. The one-liner projection was still accurate, as Baltimore is still the AL team with the strongest chances at making the World Series

Now for today's odds

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
WAS	0.5955	17.56	10.70	6.19
LAA	0.5923	18.86	10.20	6.07
BAL	0.5783	90.66	54.21	30.60
LAD	0.5687	58.51	32.08	16.68
SF	0.5363	82.44	39.61	17.80
DET	0.5324	9.34	4.66	2.16
KC	0.5193	81.14	30.94	13.49
STL	0.5119	41.49	17.62	7.01

The overall effect of the NL games on the AL teams was a mild increase in their Championship odds. That means the San Francisco upset more than outweighed the Dodgers expected victory. Maybe that's another stat I'll track next year: Chances of each league winning. Right now the AL is at 52.32%, up from 51.48% yesterday.